Third Quarter 2012 Results

Contacts: Ricardo Sánchez Baker CFO [email protected] Carlos Doormann SVP Financial Analysis [email protected] Miriam Kai Investor...
Author: Griselda Willis
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Contacts: Ricardo Sánchez Baker CFO [email protected]

Carlos Doormann SVP Financial Analysis [email protected]

Miriam Kai Investor Relations [email protected] Tel. +52 (55) 9132 4257

Third Quarter 2012 Results

Earnings Conference Call Date:

October 24, 2012 11:00 a.m. ET (10:00 a.m. MEX time)

Conference Call Dial-In Numbers:

October 23, 2012

Mexico USA International

001800-514 5956 +1 (719) 457 2696 +1 (719) 457 2696

Call ID number:

7551245

Speakers:

Andrés Conesa Labastida Chief Executive Officer Ricardo Sánchez Baker Chief Financial Officer

Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V. Paseo de la Reforma 445, Piso 10 Colonia Cuauhtémoc Tel. +52 (55) 9132 4000 Mexico, 06500, D.F. www.aeromexico.com.mx

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GRUPO AEROMEXICO S.A.B. DE C.V. KEY FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE THIRD QUARTER 2012 October 23, 2012 •

Grupo Aeromexico reported record revenues of MXP $10,524 million; 10.1% growth, year-overyear despite rain-related flight interruptions and runway repairs at the Mexico City airport, its main hub, which affected operations by approximately three days. These strong financial results were primarily driven by an increase in yield, higher passenger traffic and strengthened cargo revenues. Total revenues for the first nine months of the year were MXP $29,672 million; 13.8% greater than the same period in 2011.



Cost per Available Seat Kilometer (CASK) excluding the impact both of fuel and of consolidating the Company’s cargo business unit (AM Cargo), increased 4.4% compared to the same period of last year, primarily due to 7% exchange rate depreciation. This figure, stated in dollars, decreased 3.5%, which is a reflection of the Company's commitment to strict expense rationalization and improved efficiency.



Quarterly EBITDAR totaled MXP $2,081; the Company’s second highest third quarter EBITDAR, nearly equal to its record third quarter 2011 EBITDAR despite a significant 6.3% increase in fuel prices and the exchange rate depreciation mentioned above. EBITDAR margin was 19.8%, excluding the Aeromexico Cargo consolidation effect the margin was 20.6%.



Quarterly operating profit before non-operating revenues and expenses was MXP $976 million with an operating margin of 9.3%. Operating margin was 9.8%, excluding the effect of Aeromexico Cargo consolidation.



Net income for the quarter was MXP $423 million with a net margin of 4.0%. This result reflects the negative non-recurrent impact of MXP $156 million resulting from exchange rate depreciation and negative adjustments in the market value of fuel hedging positions during the quarter.



During the quarter the Company made payments of approximately MXP $2,270 million in fixed assets, prepayments related to the purchase of aircraft, guarantee deposits and the amortization of financial debt not related to aircraft acquisition, as part of its unprecedented annual investment program. Grupo Aeromexico’s cash position as of September 30, 2012 was MXP $3,199 million.



Grupo Aeromexico took delivery of two Embraer 190 aircraft in the third quarter; one using BNDES credit lines and one through an operating lease. The Company also took delivery of two Boeing 737-800s, both through US Ex-Im Bank financing, and of two 76 seat Embraer 170s through operating leases.



As of September 30, 2012, Stockholders’ equity was $7,014 million pesos; MXP $366 million greater than that of the second quarter of 2012.

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MANAGEMENT DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS GRUPO AEROMEXICO, S.A.B. DE C.V. REPORTS RESULTS FOR THE THIRD QUARTER 2012 All figures are reported in nominal pesos unless otherwise stated. Financial statements are prepared based on IFRS accounting standards. Mexico City, October 23, 2012. Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. DE C.V. (BMV: AEROMEX) (Grupo Aeromexico or the Company), the largest intercontinental airline in Mexico, today reported consolidated unaudited results for the third quarter 2012. As was discussed in the Company’s first quarter results report released January 1, 2012, Grupo Aeromexico has adopted International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) for the preparation and reporting of financial results. Results for Aeromexico Cargo, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Grupo Aeromexico that began operation in January 2012, have now been consolidated within Grupo Aeromexico’s financial statements. The following is a summary of consolidated financial and operating results from Grupo Aeromexico’s unaudited financial statements for the third quarter 2012 and third quarter 2011. For comparison purposes, the latter has been reported using both IFRS and the Mexican Financial Reporting Standard (MFRS) as was originally released.

From July 1 to September 30

From January 1 to September 30

2012

2011 IFRS Restated

Var %

2011 MFRS

Var 2011 IFRS vs MFRS

2012

2011 IFRS Restated

Var %

2011 MFRS

Var 2011 IFRS vs MFRS

Total ASKs (million)

8,130

7,650

6%

7,650

-

22,801

21,355

7%

21,355

-

Total RPKs (million)

6,249

6,149

2%

6,149

-

17,488

16,687

5%

16,687

-

Itinerary Load Factor (%)

77.1

80.8

-3.7pp

80.8

-

76.8

78.6

-1.7pp

78.6

-

Passengers (’000)

3,859

3,801

2%

3,801

-

11,038

10,565

4%

10,565

-

Total Fuel liters (miles)

308,049

292,044

5%

292,044

-

867,244

820,742

6%

820,742

-

Total Revenue (MXP million)

10,524

9,558

10.1%

9,594

- 36

29,672

26,074

13.8%

26,157

- 83

Yield (Revenue / RPK) (pesos)

1.572

1.474

6.6%

1.440

0.034

1.545

1.477

4.6%

1.473

0.004

Revenue / ASK (pesos)

1.294

1.249

3.6%

1.254

- 0.005

1.301

1.221

6.6%

1.225

- 0.004

Item

3

From July 1 to September 30

From January 1 to September 30

2012

2011 IFRS Restated

Var %

2011 MFRS

Var 2011 IFRS vs MFRS

2012

2011 IFRS Restated

Var %

2011 MFRS

Var 2011 IFRS vs MFRS

1.174

1.093

7.4%

1.105

- 0.012

1.206

1.089

10.7%

1.102

- 0.013

0.089

0.089

0.0%

0.090

- 0.001

0.091

0.090

1.1%

0.092

- 0.002

0.758

0.698

8.6%

0.711

- 0.013

0.777

0.710

9.4%

0.723

- 0.013

0.058

0.057

1.8%

0.058

- 0.001

0.059

0.059

-

0.060

- 0.001

CASK excl. Fuel AM Cargo Equity Method (pesos)*

0.729

0.698

4.4%

0.711

- 0.013

0.751

0.710

5.8%

0.723

- 0.013

CASK excl. Fuel AM Cargo Equity Method (USD)*

0.055

0.057

-3.5%

0.058

- 0.001

0.057

0.059

-3.4%

0.060

- 0.001

EBITDAR (MXP million)**

2,081

2,097

-0.8%

2,040

57

5,355

5,458

-1.9%

5,265

193

EBITDAR Margin**

19.8

21.9

-2.2pp

21.3

0.7pp

18.0

20.9

-2.9pp

20.1

0.8pp

Operating Profit (MXP million)*

976

1,199

-18.6%

1,141

58

2,172

2,813

-22.8%

2,618

195

Operating Margin (% of Revenue)**

9.3

12.5

-3.3pp

11.9

0.6pp

7.3

10.8

-3.5pp

10.0

0.8pp

Consolidated Net Profit (MXP million)

422

905

-53.4%

886

19

710

1,542

-54.0%

1,939

- 397

Controlling Interest Net Profit (MXP million)

423

904

-53.2%

874

30

711

1,540

-53.8%

1,873

- 333

Controlling Interest Net Margin (% of Revenue)

4.0

9.5

-5.4pp

9.1

0.4pp

2.4

5.9

-3.5pp

7.2

-1.3pp

Earnings per share (pesos)

0.59

1.30

-54.6%

1.25

0.05

1.01

2.35

-57.0%

2.86

- 0.51

Item

Total Cost / ASK (pesos) Total Cost/ ASK (USD) Total Cost / ASK excluding fuel (pesos) Total Cost / ASK excluding fuel (USD)

* 2012 figures adjusted to reflect the accounting effect of Aeromexico Cargo consolidation carried in 2012 related to the equity method used in 2011. ** Metric included for reader reference but not defined under IFRS.

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Market During the third quarter, Grupo Aeromexico operated in an environment characterized by the following factors: i)

Exchange rate depreciation: The peso depreciated 7.0% year-over-year against the US dollar during the quarter as the exchange rate shifted from an average MXP $12.31 per US dollar in the third quarter 2011 to MXP $13.17 per US dollar during the third quarter 2012.

ii) High peso-denominated fuel costs: Fuel prices in pesos increased 6.3% compared to the previous year. iii) Increased passenger traffic in the Mexican market: The Mexican aviation industry grew 9% in the months of July and August 2012 compared to the same period in 2011, with a 13% 1. increase in domestic passenger traffic and a 6% increase in international passenger traffic iv) Flight interruptions: Aeromexico experienced flight interruptions at the Mexico City airport, its main hub, due to rain, flooding and runway repairs which affected operations of the Company by approximately three days. Revenue Grupo Aeromexico’s revenues grew 10.1% year-over-year to a record high of MXP $10,524 million in the third quarter 2012. Passenger revenue totaled MXP $9,373 in the quarter; an 8% increase year-over-year, primarily driven by 6.6% growth in yield and a moderate 2% increase in passenger numbers. Grupo Aeromexico transported three million 859 thousand passengers in the third quarter of 2012; 58 thousand more than in the third quarter of 2011. Passenger numbers for international routes increased 1% while domestic passengers increased by 2%. 54% of total passenger revenue was derived from domestic operations and 46% were derived from international operations Revenue per ASK (RASK), which captures the effect of both passenger volume and average fare trends, increased 3.6% year-on-year, driven by a 6.6% increase in yield. Meanwhile, load factor for the quarter was 77.1%; 3.7 percentage points below that reported for the same period of 2011.

1

DGAC: Airline operating statistics per airline.

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RASK (MXP)

1.294 3.6%

1.249

3Q 2011

3Q 2012

Cargo revenues reached MXP $532 million; a 132% increase compared to cargo revenues in the third quarter 2011. This was related to the financial consolidation of Aeromexico’s Cargo business unit as well as to strong cargo performance. Passenger revenue would have been 15.3% greater than the same period of 2011 using the equity accounting method. Further, charter revenues totaled MXP $199 million pesos; a 13% increase compared 2 to that of the same period in 2011. Finally, other operating revenue was MXP $420; a 16.3% quarterly decrease compared to the same period in 2011. Operating Expenses Operating expenses reached $9,548 billion; 14.2% higher than the amount reported in the third quarter of 2011. Operating expenses were impacted primarily by the effects of exchange rate depreciation, fuel cost increases, increase in operations and Aeromexico Cargo’s aforementioned consolidation. The consolidation of Aeromexico's Cargo’s operational expenses resulted in an additional MXP $289 million pesos in operating expenses. Adjusting for this accounting effect, Cost per Available Seat Kilometer (CASK) excluding fuel increased 4.4% year-on-year, primarily due to the 7% peso/dollar depreciation effect. This figure, stated in dollars, decreased 3.5% year-on-year in dollar terms, which is a reflection of the Company’s commitment to strict expense rationalization and improved efficiency.

2

“Other revenue” includes excess baggage charges as well as revenue not directly related to passenger travel or cargo.

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CASK excluding fuel (Year-over-year variation %)

Item (MXP million)

Aeromexico Cargo: Consolidated

Grupo Aeromexico – Expenses Impact of cargo business accounting change 3Q 2012 3Q 2011 Aeromexico Cargo: 3Q Var AM Cargo Var AM Cargo Equity Equity Method Variation 2011 vs 3Q 2011 Method vs 3Q 2011

Total Operating Expenses

9,548

9,259

289

8,359

14.2%

10.8%

Total CASK (pesos)

1.174

1.139

3.1%

1.093

7.4%

4.2%

CASK excluding fuel (pesos)

0.758

0.729

4.0%

0.698

8.6%

4.4%

Total CASK (USD)

0.089

0.086

3.5%

0.089

0.0%

-3.4%

CASK excluding fuel (USD)

0.058

0.055

5.5%

0.057

1.8%

-3.5%

Fuel expenses increased 12.1% year-over-year, driven by the 6.3% increase in peso-denominated fuel prices and by the increase in capacity (ASKs +6%). .

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Fuel Cost Evolution (MXP Million)

Grupo Aeromexico has a fuel hedging policy in place which makes use of call and call spread instruments amounting to at least 50% of the Company’s estimated fuel consumption for the subsequent 12 months. During the third quarter of 2012, a positive impact of USD$ 2.3 million was reflected within the “fuel” line on the Income Statement. To date, 50% of the estimated accumulated fuel consumption through the third quarter of 2013 and approximately 25% of the fourth quarter of 2013 has been covered using a mix of call and call spreads on Heating Oil (HO) and Jet Fuel (JF54). 48% of this position is comprised of HO hedging, with a weighted average strike price of USD $3.042 and average cap price of USD $3.439 per gallon. The balance of the hedges, 52%, is through JF54 with an average cap price at a minimum of USD $3.13 with protection up to USD $3.79 per gallon. During the third quarter, the Company reported a negative impact of MXP $84 million in the value of its derivative financial instruments due to the underlying market value of its positions and to the decrease in the dollar-denominated fuel price. It is important to note that the Company uses call and call spread instruments for its fuel hedging program, therefore, the maximum loss that can be recorded is the value of the premiums paid for said options. Wages and salaries increased 13% year-over-year in the third quarter. This increase is due to the Company’s continued growth and expansion, reflected in a 6% increase in ASKs, as well as the effects associated with the Aeromexico Cargo consolidation. Maintenance expenses increased 14.6% in the third quarter due to the 7% exchange rate depreciation and to the 6% increase in capacity. Aircraft communication and traffic services increased 32.1%, resulting from the Aeromexico Cargo consolidation and the increase in capacity. Selling and administrative expenses (SG&A) decreased 2.0% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to a decrease in commissions and advertising expenses. It is worth mentioning that combined with this reduction in expenditures, passenger revenue grew by 8%. Therefore, SG&A as a portion of total revenue decreased from 9.9% in the third quarter of 2011 to 8.8% in the third quarter of 2012. Other operating expenses, including insurance and passenger services, increased 8% in the third quarter of 2012, due to the increase in operations and to the exchange rate depreciation’s effects.

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Aircraft leasing costs reached MXP $931 million; 17% above that of the first quarter 2011, mainly due to exchange rate depreciation and to the fact that Grupo Aeromexico added three airplanes to its fleet under operating lease. EBITDAR 3

Third quarter 2012 EBITDAR was MXP $2,081 million; the second best September in the Company’s history; very similar to last year’s quarterly EBITDAR despite a 6.3% increase in peso-denominated fuel prices and a 7.0% exchange rate depreciation. Third quarter 2012 EBITDAR margin was 19.8%, 20.6% when excluding the Aeromexico Cargo consolidation effect. EBITDAR (MXP million)

Operating Profit Before Non-Operating Revenues and Expenses Grupo Aeromexico’s third quarter 2012 operating profit before non-operating revenues and expenses was MXP $976 million with an operating margin of 9.3%; 9.8% excluding the Aeromexico Cargo consolidation effect. This result was despite the MXP $201 million peso pressure resulting from year-on-year pesodenominated fuel price increases. Operating profit is not defined within IFRS, however, given its relevance as an indicator of operating performance and for the reader’s reference it has been reported herein.

3

EBITDAR: earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization and aircraft rentals.

9

Operating Profit Before Non-Operating Revenues and Expenses (MXP Million)

Other Income and Expenses Aeromexico recorded a non-operating expense of MXP $29 million during the third quarter 2012. Net Financial Expenses Net financial expenses reached MXP $258 million pesos, a MXP $58 million increase compared to the third quarter 2011 due to increased financial debt associated with aircraft acquisition. Net Foreign Exchange Rate Variation Grupo Aeromexico reported a net negative impact of MXP $72 million in its Foreign Exchange item due to Mexican peso/US dollar exchange rate appreciation at the end of the third quarter versus the previous 4 quarter of 2012 . This effect includes a negative MXP $160 million impact related to the revaluation of dollar-denominated non-monetary assets and a positive MXP $88 million exchange fluctuation effect resulting from a short position on foreign currency-denominated monetary items. It is important to note that Grupo Aeromexico uses the Mexican peso as its recording and reporting currency and uses the US dollar as its operating currency. Derivative Fair Market Value Grupo Aeromexico reported a negative MXP $84 million impact in the third quarter due to a decrease in the fair market value of its hedging positions underlying JF54 and HO. The Company uses call and call spread instruments for its fuel hedging program. Therefore, the maximum market value loss that can be recorded is the value of the premiums paid for said options.

4

The average Exchange rate registered for each quarter was, 13.55 in 2Q and 13.12 in 3Q respectively.

10

Controlling Interest Net Income (Profit) Grupo Aeromexico reported a net income of MXP $423 million with a net margin of 4.0% in the third quarter of 2012. This result reflects the negative impact of MXP $156 million from non-recurring items such as foreign exchange and derivative fair market value losses.

Net Profit (MXP Million) Comments to the Consolidated Statements of Financial Position

289 156 615

3Q 2011

423

3Q 2012

Non-Recurring 2011: Positive impact from Foreign Exchange of MXP $289 million 2012: Negative impact from Foreign Exchange of MXP $72 million and from Derivatives’ Market Value of MXP $84 million

Comments to the Consolidated Statements of Financial Position

As of September 30, 2012, the Company’s Unrestricted Cash and Cash Equivalents was MXP $3,199 million; MXP $943 million less than that of June 30, 2012. As part of Aeromexico’s unprecedented annual investment program, so far this year the Company has made payments of approximately MXP $6,084 on fixed assets, as well as prepayments for the purchase of aircraft, guarantee deposits and the amortization of financial debt not related to aircraft acquisition, while obtaining financing resources to acquire the aircrafts of MXP $3,445 million. The full year investment program includes the purchase of six aircraft: three E190 and three B737-800 as well as the construction of a hangar and east platform at Mexico City’s International Airport, among other assets. Also related to its full year investment program, the Company has made payments of approximately MXP $2,270 for fixed assets, aircraft prepayments, guarantee deposits and for the amortization of financial debt not related to aircraft acquisition. MXP $1,462 million in financing was obtained for aircraft acquisition. As of September 30, 2012, 94% of Grupo Aeromexico’s total financial debt was associated with aircraft acquisition; a greater portion of total financial debt as compared to the 70% that aircraft acquisition represented as of September 30, 2011.

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As of September 30, 2012, Controlling Stockholders’ Equity Interest for the quarter reached MXP $7,014 million; a MXP $329 million increase as compared to the third quarter of 2012. As of September 30 (million pesos)

2012

2011

Change

Unrestricted cash and cash equivalents

3,199

4,535

-1,336

Financial debt

5,761

2,952

2,809

Net financial debt

2,562

-1,583

4,145

Stockholders’ equity

7,014

5,267

1,747

Consolidated Stockholders’ equity

7,021

5,275

1,746

As of September 30, 2012 Grupo Aeromexico had 718,565,502 shares outstanding; 241,507,976 treasury shares and 10,375,164 shares were repurchased this quarter as part of the Company’s repurchasing program.

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Relevant Quarterly Events Grupo Aeromexico announces important fleet investment On July 25, Grupo Aeromexico signed a letter of intent with the Boeing aircraft manufacturer to purchase up to 100 next generation aircraft worth close to $11 billion U.S. dollars. The order includes up to 90 narrow-body 737-8 Max jet airliners and up to ten wide-body Boeing 787-9 Dreamliners. Both the Boeing 737-8 Max and the Boeing 787-9 Dreamliners belong to a new generation of aircraft that greatly improves travel conditions for passengers while also significantly reducing fuel consumption, increasing the scope to further destinations and reducing maintenance costs. Grupo Aeromexico will be the first Latin American airline to operate this equipment. It is also important to note that this 100 aircraft order is in addition to the 20 new and wholly owned acquisitions that the carrier announced in 2011, including ten Embraer 190 airplanes and ten Boeing 737-8 NG jet airliners plus the nine Boeing 787 Dreamliners mentioned above. The addition of these new aircraft is part of Aeromexico’s ongoing fleet renewal program, and part of its goal to maintain one of the youngest fleets in the industry. Grupo Aeromexico and Delta Air lines to build joint heavy maintenance facility in Querétaro On August 31, 2012 Grupo Aeromexico and Delta Air Lines Inc. announced plans to begin construction of a jointly operated aircraft maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) center at the Intercontinental Airport in Querétaro. As part of a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) and as a continuation of their existing commercial alliance, the carriers will each invest equal amounts in a project that will move work currently undertaken at the Guadalajara International Airport. The new facility’s heavy maintenance capacity will expand MRO capabilities for the carriers’ own aircraft as well as for those of other carriers, and allows for up to seven aircraft to be serviced simultaneously. Negotiations with Aimia Inc. On August 9, Grupo Aeroméxico announced that it had initiated discussions with Aimia Inc., the global leader in loyalty management, related to Aimia’s intention of increasing its equity participation in Premier Loyalty & Marketing, S.A.P.I. de C.V., Grupo Aeroméxico’s subsidiary and independent business unit, as well as the owner and operator of “Club Premier”, Mexico’s first broad-based coalition loyalty program. While there can be no assurances that an agreement will ultimately be reached, the parties will seek to reach an agreement by the end of 2012.

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Fleet Grupo Aeromexico took delivery of two Embraer 190 aircraft in the third quarter 2012; one using BNDES credit lines and one purchased through an operating lease. The Company also received two Boeing 737800, both through a finance lease, and two 76 seat Embraer 170 through operating leases. As at the end of September, the average age of Grupo Aeromexico’s fleet was nine years.

Operating Fleet

Aircraft

3Q 2011

3Q 2012

B-777

4

4

B-767

7

7

B-737

42

42

Aeromexico

53

53

ERJ 145

39

38

E 170

0

3

E 190

10

19

Aeromexico Connect

49

60

GRUPO AEROMEXICO

102

113

14

Financial Analyst Coverage

Company

Analyst

E-mail

Gustavo Adolfo Terán

[email protected]

Pablo Abraham Peregrina

[email protected]

Michael Linenberg

[email protected]

GBM

Bianca Faiwichow

[email protected]

Intercam

Alejandra Marcos

[email protected]

Morgan Stanley

Nicolai Sebrell

[email protected]

Vector

Marco Montañez

[email protected]

Actinver BBVA Bancomer Deutsche Bank

15

3Q Consolidated Statement of Operations

16

Jan-Sept Consolidated Statement of Operations

17

Consolidated Statement of Financial Position

18