The Use of Financial Accounts for Monetary and Financial Stability Analysis
Ahmet Adnan Eken Statistics Department Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
Algiers, 20-21 January 2016
Outline
Use of Financial Accounts Financial Accounts in Turkey Financial Accounts Risk Indicators
2
Use ofTraining Financial Accounts - Users Financial Stability
• •
Non-Financial Corporations Households
• Maturity Mismatch • Currency Breakdown • Sectoral Linkages
3
Use of Financial Accounts Training – CBRT Statisticians
Monetary and Financial Analysis Financial Structure Analysis Internal and External Finance Analysis Household Analysis Macroprudential and Financial Stability Analysis
Portfolio shifts between monetary assets and other financial instruments Sectoral classification of monetary aggregates Originated from banks Originated from market
Changes in the investment and financial wealth of non-financial corporations
Reasons of financial wealth: transaction, valuation and other
Financial Soundness Indicators Domestic sectors’ operations (especially HH and NFC)
4
Use of Financial Accounts
Network Analysis Economic sectors are related with each other Financial accounts provide us to set up network models on the basis of sectors To predict the contagion risk of financial shocks to one sector to others Some Researches: • Castren-Kavonius 2009 • Castren-Rancan 2013 • Halaj-Kochanska-Kok 2014 5
Financial Accounts in Turkey
2006
2008
2012
2015
• Official Statistics Programme (2007-2011)
• Financial Accounts Working Group
• First Publication of Stock Tables in CBRT Web Site
• Quarterly Financial Accounts • Consolidated and Non-Consolidated Stock and Flow Data for All Sectors
6
Financial Accounts in Turkey Financial assets and liabilities according to the financial sectors (GDP%)
Total economy according to the financial instruments (GDP%)
7
Financial Accounts in Turkey Financial Net Worth, Sectoral Breakdown (billion TRY)
Financial Net Worth, Sectoral Breakdown (GDP%)
8
Financial Accounts in Turkey
9
Households Households (Stock and flow, non consolidated)
Households’ Debt (%)
(billion TRY) 2014-IV Transaction Valuation
2015-II
Financial Assets
813
53
62
928
Currency and Deposits
640
51
52
744
23
0
2
24
0
0
0
1
Shares and Other Equity
82
-5
8
85
Insurance Technical Reserves
53
6
0
59
Other Accounts Receivable
14
1
0
15
393
20
-3
410
Currency and Deposits
0
0
0
0
Securities other than Shares
0
0
0
0
381
21
0
402
Shares and Other Equity
0
0
0
0
Insurance Technical Reserves
0
0
0
0
12
-2
-3
7
Securities other than Shares Loans
Financial Liabilities
Loans
Other Accounts Payable
10
Households Breakdown of Financial Assets and Liabilities by Instrument (%)
Country comparison (2014)
11
Households
Household’s Financial Net Worth/GDP Country Comparison
Household’s Debt/GDP Country Comparison
12
Non-Financial Corporations Breakdown of Financial Assets and Liabilities by Instrument (%)
Non-financial corporations (Stock and flow, non consolidated) (billion TRY)2014-IV Transaction Valuation 2015-II Financial Assets
3,196
3
31
3,229
352
6
20
379
Debt Securities
40
-1
1
40
Loans Shares and Other Equities
12
4
-2
14
1,307
-1
6
1,312
10
1
0
11
Other Accounts Receivable
1,476
-7
5
1,474
Financial Liabilities
4,244
103
251
4,599
0
0
0
0
31
2
3
36
1,119
107
67
1,293
1,587
-7
55
1,636
0
0
0
0
1,508
0
126
1,634
Money and Deposits
Insurance Technical Reserves
Money and Deposits Debt Securities Loans Shares and Other Equities Insurance Technical Reserves Other Accounts Payable
Country comparison (2014)
13
FX Position of Non-Financial Corporations Instrument Structure of FX Denominated Assets and Liabilities (TRY, Billions)
Net FX Financial Position (USD, Billion)
Maturity Structure of FX Denominated Assets and Liabilities (USD, Billions)
14
Non-Financial Corporations
NFC’s Financial Net Worth/GDP Country Comparison
NFC’s Debt/GDP Country Comparison
15
Financial Accounts Risk Indicators • Sectoral balance sheets compiled as part of financial accounts allow us to produce different indicators for financial risk analysis. • Indebtedness, composition of liabilities, ratio between financial asset and liabilities and relation with the rest of the world are important factors that affect the profitability of the relevant sector, and they are used in financial risk analysis. Financial Balance Sheet Risk Indicators Net Financial Position (billion TRY)
I. Solvency Debt/GDP Risk Liabilities/Assets
II. Capital Structure Mismatch
Capital Structure Positon (billion TRY) Debt/Equity Net External Financial Position (billion TRY)
III.External External Liabilities/GDP Risk External Liabilities/ Total Liabilities
16
Risk Indicators
17
Solvency Risk-Debt/GDP Debt/ GDP- Non-Financial Corporations 8,00
Debt/GDP- Monetary and Financial Corporations 6,00
6,00 4,00 4,00 2,00 2,00
Ireland
France
Denmark
Holland
Spain
Finland
Belgium
Greece
Portugal
Austria
Germany
Italy
Korea
Norway
USA
Turkey
Debt/GDP- Households
18,00
1,60
16,00
1,40
14,00
1,20
12,00
Hungary
Poland
Debt/ GDP - Other Financial Corporations
Estonia
0,00
0,00
1,00
10,00 0,80 8,00 6,00
0,60
4,00
0,40
2,00
0,20
0,00
0,00
18
Solvency Risk- Financial Liabilities/Assets
19
Capital Structure Mismatch- Debt/Equity
20
External Risk 2015 External Liabilities/Total Liabilities Monetary Financial Corporations 0,25 0,20 0,15
External Liabilities/GDP
0,10
Monetary Financial Corporations 0,45 0,40 0,35 0,30 0,25 0,20 0,15 0,10 0,05 0,00
0,05 0,00
Non-Financial Corporations
Other Financial Corporations
2010
2015-II
Non-Financial Corporations
Other Financial Corporations
2010
2015- II
21
Financial Accounts Report
22
The Use of Financial Accounts for Monetary and Financial Stability Analysis
Ahmet Adnan Eken Statistics Department Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
Algiers, 20-21 January 2016
