The study of migration has been characterised

POPULATION, SPACE AND PLACE Popul. Space Place (2015) Published online in Wiley Online Library (wileyonlinelibrary.com) DOI: 10.1002/psp.1930 Interna...
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POPULATION, SPACE AND PLACE Popul. Space Place (2015) Published online in Wiley Online Library (wileyonlinelibrary.com) DOI: 10.1002/psp.1930

Internal and International Migration in East and Southeast Asia: Exploring the Linkages Graeme John Hugo*† Department of Geographical and Environmental Studies, University of Adelaide, North Terrace, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION

Internal and international migration have increased exponentially in scale, complexity and significance in the last two decades. There are often strong relationships between internal and international migration, but they remain little understood because the two types of movement are conceptualised, measured and studied separately. This paper is divided into two parts. The first summarises the areas of both convergence and divergence in the types, patterns, causes and consequences of internal and international migration in the Asian region. These are considered partially in the context of the complex relationship between migration and development. It is shown that there is more convergence than divergence conceptually and theoretically. The second part of the paper addresses the issue of linkages between internal and international migration. This model argues that on the one hand international migrants usually engage in a different pattern of internal migration than the established population at the destination. It also suggests that in some cases international migration itself may influence the internal migration patterns of the resident population. On the other hand there are also linkages in ‘origin’ countries where particular patterns of internal migration precede international migration. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

T

Accepted 01 November 2014

Keywords: internal and international migration; migration theory; migration data; Asia *Correspondence to: Graeme John Hugo, Department of Geographical and Environmental Studies, University of Adelaide, North Terrace, Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia. E-mail: [email protected] † Sadly Professor Graeme Hugo, a long serving and very active editorial board member of Population Space and Place died after submitting this paper. He will be greatly missed.

he study of migration has been characterised by dichotomies which draw sharp lines between different types of human mobility such as temporary vs permanent, forced vs voluntary and internal vs international (King, 2002). While each of these binaries has meaning and utility in understanding the complexity of contemporary population mobility, they also constitute barriers by preventing migration being considered more holistically. This is especially the case with internal and international migration. As King and Skeldon (2010: 1620) have argued: Two almost entirely separate literatures exist, written from different conceptual, theoretical and methodological standpoints, which rarely talks to one another … different data sources, different disciplinary backgrounds of researchers, different analytical techniques and different research agendas that reflect different policy concerns and funding sources. Their assessment is especially relevant to the East and Southeast Asian region where both internal and international migrations have increased exponentially in scale, complexity and significance in the last two decades as both a cause and consequence of rapid economic and social change. The separation between internal and international migration research has on the one hand prevented a productive interaction which could advance theory and policy relating to both forms of migration, while on the other it has been a barrier to improving understanding of some complex population movement processes involving both internal and international movements. In addition there are often strong relationships between internal and international migration which remain little understood Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

G. J. Hugo because the two types of movement are conceptualised, measured and studied separately. This paper first summarises the areas of convergence and divergence in the types, patterns, causes and consequences of internal and international migration in the East and Southeast Asian region in the context of the complex relationship between migration and development. It is argued that there is more convergence than divergence conceptually and theoretically. Then the paper addresses the issue of the linkages between internal and international migration. It is argued that on the one hand international migrants usually engage in a different pattern of internal migration than the established population after they arrive at the destination. It also suggests that in some cases international migration itself may influence the internal migration patterns of the resident population. On the other hand there are also linkages in ‘origin’ countries where particular patterns of internal migration often precede international migration. It is argued that migration needs to be studied as a holistic process occurring across space and time without the internal/international division always being imposed on its measurement and study. With the increased significance of international migration, globally understanding the backward and forward linkages relating to internal migration and population distribution becomes increasingly important. The relationship between migration and economic development is increasingly being recognised but the focus is generally at a national level. Where immigrants move to after arrival at the destination impacts not only on development nationally but also at a regional level. CONCEPTUAL DIMENSIONS OF THE INTERNAL AND INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION DIVIDE The rise in significance of the nation-state in global, political, economic and social life during the twentieth century was a major factor in the divergence of internal and international migration research. While contemporary studies of population movement in the colonial era in the region are few in number, they tend to consider migration more holistically (Hugo, 1975). One example is the work of the Dutch demographer Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

(Scheltema, 1926: 872–873) who drew upon his extended residence in the Netherlands East Indies (now Indonesia) to produce a classification of population movements for the colony. His typology is reproduced in Table 1, and it is striking that it incorporates all forms of mobility, temporary as well as permanent, and internal as well as international. In categories 2 and 5 of the typology internal as well as international movers are included. Category 2 included the so-called ‘contract coolie’ movements which are similar to modern contract labour migration. People, mainly men, from Java were recruited and given a contract to work, usually for two years, in Sumatra within the NEI but also outside the colony. The bulk were sent to the English colony of Malaya so there were 170 000 ethnic Javanese in Malaya in 1930, while smaller numbers were sent to the Dutch Latin American colony of Surinam in New Caledonia, British North Borneo and to a lesser extent Sarawak, Cochin China and Queensland, Australia (Scheltema, 1926: 874). Another form of international migration captured here was the Haj – the pilgrimage to Mecca which remains important in contemporary Indonesia (Vredenbergt, 1962).

Table 1. A typology of population movements in the Dutch East Indies. Type

(i) Local Movements (ii) Temporary Movements

(iii) Periodic Movements

(iv) SemiPermanent Movements

(v) Permanent Movements

Example

Movements to a neighbouring village (e.g. marriage migration) Movements to an area to construct a railway or irrigation works, undertake the haj, work as a contract coolie Movements caused by seasonal demands for labour, e.g. people moving from West Java to South Sumatra to pick pepper People who earn their living in one place while their family stays in another, e.g. clerks working in the city while their family stays in the village a. Within Java b. To/from other Dutch East Indies islands c. To/from other nations/colonies

Source: Scheltema, 1926: 872–873

Popul. Space Place (2015) DOI: 10.1002/psp

Internal and International Migration in East and Southeast Asia In the Permanent Movements category again there is an explicit inclusion of both internal and international migrations. During the last four decades of colonial rule, the non-indigenous population of the NEI increased at twice the rate of indigenous groups. As the Dutch forged ahead with their exploitation of the Indies economy on an ever-increasing scale there were many more and varied roles created, not only for the Dutch but also for Chinese and for Arabs and Indians. The Chinese in particular were employed increasingly as foremen and white collar workers in Western industrial enterprises (Skinner, 1963: 98) as well as in small and medium scale trade (de Vries & Cohen, 1938: 269) and industry (Aten, 1952–53: 1). The key point about Scheltema’s work is that it considered both internal and international migrations as elements in a single process. The postindependence period in Southeast Asia, however, has seen a substantial increase in the role and significance of the nation state. A basic plank of sovereignty of the nation state involves determining who may enter or leave the country and regulating the population that lives within the national boundaries. National boundaries have taken on a much greater importance and border control institutions, and processes have become an increasingly important factor shaping and regulating international migration in the region. This has undoubtedly been a major influence in the separation of internal and international migration because it does constitute a fundamental difference. Internal and international migrants have to deal with a different set of institutional structures. Some might even suggest that whereas there is unrestricted mobility within national boundaries, movement across boundaries is restricted. In the region, however, there are a number of examples of the state restricting movement within national boundaries. The most important example of the state restricting internal migration is China’s Household Registration or hukou system (Chan & Zhang, 1999). The system officially identifies a person as a resident of an area. Such systems have existed in China for millennia, but in 1958 the government began to use the system to control movement between rural and urban areas by designating people as rural (agricultural) or urban (non-agricultural). Individuals were required to obtain passes to work in provinces Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

other than their own while those who worked outside their authorised area were not eligible for grain rations, employer provided housing, health care, education for their children etc. although the exclusions varied somewhat from area to area. Until the beginning of economic reforms in 1978 those with an urban hukou had access to a range of benefits not available to those with a rural hukou. After 1978 it became possible for some people to move unofficially without a permit, but they were excluded from access to services at the destination. Accordingly, rural– urban migrants could register as temporary migrants in cities. Although the system has undergone a number of relaxations which varies from area to area it continues to have an influence on internal migration. Similar household registration systems have operated on internal migration in Japan (koseki), Vietnam (H Kh u) and Korea (Hoju).1 There are many other examples in the region where nation states have attempted to ‘close’ regions or cities to internal migrants (Hugo, 1981: 147). An example was the ‘closed city’ legislation: enacted in 1970 in Jakarta. The regulations required inmigrants wishing to settle in Jakarta to register and deposit a sum equivalent to twice the return fare to their village of origin (Harris, 1979). Hence, while a major distinction made between internal and international migration lay in the fact that the nation state intervenes to control the latter but not the former, there is in fact some overlap. Indeed it could also be mentioned that there are instances of migration in the region across international boundaries in Asia where the nation state does not intervene. Klanarong’s (2003) study shows that there are a multiplicity of routes along which migrants from the four Southern provinces of Thailand migrate to Malaysia to work on a seasonal or circular labour basis. None of the movement is documented but is largely accepted by officials on both sides of the border. Similarly, Lyons and Ford (2007) in studying the movement between the Riau Archipelago in Indonesia, to both Malaysia and Singapore, document the attempts that have been made to regulate the flows of Indonesian workers but much of the movement remains undocumented. In both the Thailand and Indonesian cases the immigrants share the ethnicity, language and religion of many of the residents of the destination. Colonial and post-colonial boundary drawing Popul. Space Place (2015) DOI: 10.1002/psp

G. J. Hugo often cut across cultural regions separating not only ethnolinguistic communities but sometimes even families (Amrith, 2011). Hence what would have been internal migration in the past has become international migration since the colonial and nation state boundaries were drawn. Another issue which relates to the significance of national boundaries in the region relates to the global trend in the development of regional blocs of countries which relax controls on population movement between member countries. The European Community, the major example, lies outside the region but there has been a substantial increase in the activity and strength of regional and subregional organisations within Asia and the Pacific. For example, 2015 will see the establishment of the ASEAN Economic Community. While there has not been any agreement for the creation of a single labour market this may develop in the future, especially for high skilled migrants, and there is increasing dialogue in the ASEAN forum on population movement between the countries. Hence although the salience of national boundaries as a barrier to international migration remains a fundamental basis for distinguishing between internal and international migration in the Asian region, there are some exceptions. A key distinction remains that most international migrants in Asia, unlike most of their internal counterparts have to engage with a range of border control institutions and run the risk of being undocumented. There are a number of other, less clear cut, distinctions between internal and international migrants. Most international migrants traverse longer distances and incur greater costs than internal migrants although again there are exceptions. There are a number of border regions in Asia where there is heavy regular short distance movement across national boundaries, even on a daily commuting basis. The Indonesia–Malaysia– Singapore Growth Triangle (IMS-GT) is one case in point where there is regular movement of workers from Malaysia to Singapore, Singapore to Indonesia and Indonesia to Singapore. Indeed the introduction of a smart card system greatly speeds up and facilitates this process (Lyons & Ford, 2007). It is characteristic of border regions that they develop distinctive populations and activities which to a degree are dependent on mobility across the national boundary. These often involve a large tourism industry (sometimes Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

involving the sex sector), manufacturing and service activities. On the other hand, internal migration can frequently involve large distances and costs in Asian countries. Indeed, there is a scale dimension involved in the balance of internal and international migration that a country experiences. For residents of Asian countries which cover a large geographical area, have varied geographies and complex and varied economies (especially China, India and Indonesia), internal migration can involve a long distance journey and significant costs. On the other hand, for residents of very small countries (e.g. Singapore) international movement can involve small distances and costs. Internal migration from west to east in China, for example, can be seen as being analogous to international labour migration experienced by smaller countries in Asia. • There are massive income, education and socioeconomic differentials between Western and Eastern China similar to the differences between sending and receiving countries for international labour migrants. • The west is characterised by higher fertility and population growth, an excess of workers mainly in rural areas, while the east has low fertility and a shortage of workers in several large metropolitan areas. • Migrants from the west incur significant travel costs and the barrier of not having an urban hukou when they reach the destination. Some are even from a minority ethnolinguistic group. The migrants are separated from important family and social networks. The enormous scale of China is reflected in the national government’s new economic policy which argues that the massive size and underdeveloped nature of the internal market in central and Western China means that a policy of developing that internal market will mean that China will not have to rely as much as other countries on international export for future prosperity and be less exposed to fluctuations in the international financial situation. Another dimension of conceptual difference often drawn between international and internal migrants relates to the fact that international migrants often move into contexts where they not Popul. Space Place (2015) DOI: 10.1002/psp

Internal and International Migration in East and Southeast Asia only have a difficult legal status to the residents, but they speak a different language and have different cultural attributes which restricts their ability to adjust. However, in large complex countries like China, India and Indonesia, long distance migrants face similar barriers when they move into distant, usually urban, destinations. As is the case with their international counterparts, migrant networks can cushion this adjustment facilitating entry to labour and housing markets at the destination. Hence internal as well as international migrants are both prone to occupational and residential clustering at destinations. Indeed there are considerable similarities in the adjustment process at the destination as has been pointed out by King and Skeldon (2010). They argue that while the discourse on integration has been commonly played out in the context of international migration, the issues remain essentially the same. Segmentation of destination labour markets for international migrants is well established in Asia with international labour migrants often being restricted in the activities which they can engage in. These are often in the socalled 3D ‘dirty, difficult and dangerous’ (in reality low status, lowly paid) jobs. The evidence from studies of internal migrants in cities of Asia reveals a similar pattern of labour market segmentation. DATA COLLECTION One of the key dimensions of differentiation between internal and international migration in research has been the separation of data collection regarding them. Integration of analysis of internal and international migration is rendered very difficult when standard data collections such as the population census treat them separately. This is reflected in the fact that in the United Nations’ manual series on demographic measurement and estimation there have been separate volumes prepared on Internal Migration (1970) and International Migration (1980). However, both internal and international migrations share a common conceptual basis for measurement. At the outset we can recognise a fundamental distinction in measurement between: • Stocks: the number of migrants in a place at a particular point in time. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

• Flows: the number of migrants moving from place A to place B over a specified period of time. Clearly this distinction is at the basis of measurement of both internal and international migrations. Flow data involve the continuous measurement of movement as is the case with population registers for internal movement and border control statistics for international moves. Since few countries in Asia have comprehensive accurate national population registers there is limited flow data on internal migration in Asia, although China is a major exception. Most countries have border control statistics although (Hugo, 2006a): • For many countries the data are not comprehensive (e.g. excluding the moves of citizens). • For most countries the data are not made available in a form suitable for analysis. • Almost all countries only collect and analyse data on arrivals and not departures. While there has been improvement in collection of migration flow data, especially that of international flows (Tomas, Summers & Clemens, 2009) in Asia, there would seem to be little prospect of integrating internal and international migrant flow data collection. The situation is quite different in the collection of information on stocks of migrants. The population census is the major source of information for both internal and international migration stock information not only in Asia but globally. Traditionally, there have been separate suites of questions included in population census questionnaires to capture internal and international migration, although not all countries have included these questions at each census reflecting the marginal situation which migration has long had in demography (Goldstein, 1976). Figure 1 shows that most countries in Asia included some questions on internal migration at the 2010 round of population censuses although the nature of these questions and the extent to which they captured internal movement vary considerably. However, the number of countries collecting information on international migration was somewhat less as Figure 2 indicates. The fact that international migration has only recently become of major significance in the region may help Popul. Space Place (2015) DOI: 10.1002/psp

G. J. Hugo

Figure 1. Asian countries collecting internal migration data at 2010 round of censuses. Source: United Nations Statistical Division.

Figure 2. Asian countries collecting international migration data at 2010 round of censuses. Source: United Nations Statistical Division.

explain why so few countries have questions relating to it in their population censuses. It is argued here that there would be some value in integrating population census questions in internal and international migration. This Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

would not only result in more information on both processes being made available but would facilitate examination of the linkages between internal and international migration. Table 2 lists the topics of questions which are conventionally Popul. Space Place (2015) DOI: 10.1002/psp

Internal and International Migration in East and Southeast Asia Table 2. Topics of questions usually included in national population censuses to measure international and internal migration. International migration

Internal migration

Country of birth Country of last residence (or residence 5 years ago) Length of residence in country of residence Ethnicity/ancestry Citizenship/Residence status

Place of birth Place of last residence (or residence 5 years ago) Length of residence in present location Ethnicity/ancestry Residence status

included in population censuses on internal and international migration. One of the major problems confronted in measurement of migration as opposed to measuring the other two demographic processes of fertility and mortality is that while individuals only experience birth and death once they generally migrate multiple times. Hence measuring migration usually involves capturing only a subset of moves during a lifetime. An alternative is to task about length of residence in a location or place of residence five years ago. In all cases it is a simple task to integrate collection of information on internal and international migrants. Similarly, questions relating to ethnicity/ancestry can be equally useful in internal as well as international migration, especially in countries which have a great deal of multicultural diversity. Indonesia is an example where there are over 200 distinct ethno/linguistic groups each of which tends to have a specific heartland (Ananta & Arifin, 2008). Citizenship is the main area of differentiation between internal and international migration. As Bilsborrow et al. (1997: 16) point out: A key attribute of international migration that sets it apart from other types of population mobility is that it links two sovereign states and that persons moving from one state to another are not treated equally. Citizenship is a decisive factor defining a persons’ rights in a country and has traditionally been used to determine who is subject to control when crossing international boundaries. With the minor exception of the countries referred to earlier that have regulations on internal movement, citizenship is the only one of the dimensions in Table 2 which applies only to international migration. It nevertheless is highly important not only to ask this question but to Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

have a much more nuanced range of response options that in the past have often been restricted to citizen/non-citizen or to a very narrow range of citizenship options. The modern reality of international migration in Asia means that foreigners in a country can have a range of statuses – citizen, dual citizen, student, foreign worker, tourist, visitor, spouse etc. Establishing the basis for residence in a country should be an important part of establishing the stock of international migrants at census time. The argument here is that despite the distinctiveness of the citizenship questions and the modification needed in the length of residence question there should be a full integration of internal and international migration questions in population censuses in the region and that they should be asked in all countries. Mobility, both internal and international, has increased exponentially in all countries so there is a pressing need to measure them. Improving knowledge of stocks of immigrants and inmigrants can also provide a great deal of information on emigrants and outmigration. Integration of the questions cannot only enhance the amount of information about the two processes separately but facilitate the analysis of the linkages between them. EXPLAINING MIGRATION While most discussion of theory relating to the initiation and perpetration of migration focuses on either international or internal migration separately, in fact most theories have relevance to both. The widely quoted bringing together of migration theory by Massey et al. (1993, 1998) focuses predominantly on international migration but with little change could serve a similar purpose for internal migration. Even more recent development of transnationalism with its emphasis on linkages between origins and destinations Popul. Space Place (2015) DOI: 10.1002/psp

G. J. Hugo and complex flows between them has resonance for understanding the causes and impacts of internal migration. In both internal and international migrations economic and job-related factors are the dominant drivers of all but very short distance movement within labour markets where marriage migration and other social elements can be more significant. The Global Commission on International Migration (2005: 12) concludes that: In the contemporary world the principle forces that are driving international migration are due to the ‘3Ds’: differences in development, demography and democracy … because these differentials are widening, the number of people seeking to migrate will continue to increase in the future. Inter-country differentials in income and job opportunities are important elements in neoclassical, new household economies and dual labour market theories of international migration (Massey et al., 1993: 433–444). Yet disparities between different parts of nations such as rural–urban, core-periphery, coastal-inland and resource rich-resource poor can produce steep income gradients between areas within countries as well. Moreover they are a major element driving internal migration and the theories are equally applicable. The developmental disparities driving migration between countries in the region are evident in Table 3 which shows the Human Development Index and Gross National Income per capita for ASEAN nations. There is a parametric difference in human development indexes and incomes between countries which are predominantly receiving international migrants (most from within ASEAN) and those which are mainly sending countries. Such disparities also operate within countries in the region. Table 4 shows that the incidence of poverty in the region is almost five times higher in rural than urban areas. While there has been a substantial reduction in both areas over the last two decades it has been more rapid in urban areas. This reflects substantial disparities in the development of urban and rural areas and is driving rapid urbanisation in the region. Turning to the second ‘D’ – demography – countries vary greatly in the stage of the Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Table 3. ASEAN countries: economic disparities between sending and receiving countries, 2012. Human development index

GNI PPP per capita (US$)

Destination countries Brunei Malaysia Singapore Thailand

0.855 0.769 0.895 0.960

49 370 16 530 61 100 9430

Origin countries Cambodia Indonesia Laos Myanmar Philippines Vietnam

0.543 0.629 0.543 0.498 0.654 0.617

2360 4810 2730 na 4400 3340

Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2013; United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), 2013

Table 4. East Asia and the Pacific poverty rates in urban and rural areas, 1990–2008 (percentage of population). Year

Urban

Rural

1990 1996 2002 2008

24.4 13.0 6.9 4.3

67.5 45.9 39.2 20.4

Source: World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, 2013: 9

demographic transition they have reached. Since initiation of steep declines in fertility has occurred at different times in different Asian nations (Leete & Alam, 1993), wide differences in age structure have resulted. A ‘youth bulge’ is created in countries where there has been a rapid decline in fertility when the large numbers of children born in the final years of high fertility move into the young working ages and there is an increase in the ratio of workers (especially young workers) to dependents. This can produce a ‘demographic dividend’ in a favourable policy environment. However, as the low fertility continues and the workers age, countries can move into a ‘demographic deficit’ situation where the numbers entering the workforce at a young age are outnumbered by older workers retiring. The differences between Asian nations in the timing of the youth bulge when the numbers of young Popul. Space Place (2015) DOI: 10.1002/psp

Internal and International Migration in East and Southeast Asia workers peak is shown in Table 5. The numbers aged 15–24 peaked in Japan in 1970, in Korea and Indonesia in 2000 and in China in 2010. In these countries the numbers are now declining. In other countries like Pakistan, Philippines and India they are still growing. While we should be wary of demographic determinism it is clear that these differentials are an increasingly important driver of international migration in Asia from countries experiencing the demographic dividend to those with a demographic deficit (Hugo, 2009). While these demographic differences are most striking between nations, they also operate

within countries to some degree. Figure 3 shows that there are differentials in fertility between rural–agricultural and urban populations within China with generally lower fertility in cities. Emerging demographic trends of very low fertility and ageing take on an exacerbated form in many Asian cities – especially the very large metropolitan complexes. This consistent feature of Asian demography has been seen in the past as being largely a function of the educational, income and occupational differentials between urban and rural areas. In China the Urban Total Fertility Rate (TFR) had fallen to 1.13 in the late 1990s while that in Shanghai was 0.87 (Yuan,

Table 5. Selected Asian countries: population aged 15–24 (‘000), 1950–2030. Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision database.

Figure 3. Trends in TFR1 for all women in China and by Hukou Status, 1975–2005. Source: 1990 and 2000 censuses, 2005 mini census; Chen et al., 2011. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Popul. Space Place (2015) DOI: 10.1002/psp

G. J. Hugo 2003) and 0.79 in 2010 (Hays, 2012), one of the lowest rates of any place in the world. Such levels are also recorded in other large cities such as Beijing and Tianjin (Zhao, 2001). These fertility changes are resulting in increasing differences between urban and rural age structures. Taking Shanghai, for example, Figure 4 shows a striking undercutting of the age structure due to the effects of very low fertility. The age structure in fact is becoming comparable to that of OECD cities with 10.1% aged 65 or older in 2010. It was reported in 2001 that the city had 2.45 million retirees – making up 15% of the Shanghai population (People’s Daily, 11 November 2001). Moreover Figure 4 shows that there were large numbers in the 50–64 age group in 2010 presaging a massive increase in the aged population in the 2020s. This represents a major challenge for the city. There are not as many new workers ageing into the workforce as are aging out of the workforce by retirement. There has been a need for ‘replacement migration’ to occur. This concept was developed in relation to the needs of low fertility European countries who currently or soon will experience population declines due to continued low fertility and the potential for countries of the south to make up the shortfalls through international migration. It came to particular prominence in early 2000 when the United Nations (2001) published a report entitled ‘Replacement Migration: Is it a Solution to Declining Aging Populations?’. They defined ‘replacement migration’ as ‘the international migration that would be needed to offset

declines in the size of population, the declines in the population of working age, as well as to offset the overall ageing of the population’. While this report attracted a great deal of comment and criticism the ‘replacement migration’ concept is a useful one because it points to the fact that migration will play a more significant role in the demography of developed countries than it has in the past. This is also the case for the cities of Asia in relation to internal migration from their hinterland. In Shanghai, for example, the 2010 census showed that 8.98 million of its residents (39%) were interprovincial migrants. Moving to the third ‘D’ of differentials in democracy becomes an increasingly important driver of international migration. This relates especially to conflict as a cause of forced displacement and refugee migration. The contemporary refugee regime is the only major international migration regime which operates to provide assistance to people forced to flee their country. One of the key elements in the success of that regime is the fact that the 1951 UN Protocol provides a clear and operational definition of a refugee. As McNamara (2007: 13) points out, there are four main elements in this definition. • A person must be outside of their country of nationality or former habitual residence. • The person must fear persecution. • The fear of persecution must be for reasons of race, nationality, religion, membership of a particular social group or political opinion. • The fear must be well founded.

Figure 4. Shanghai: age-sex distribution, 2010. Source: Shanghai Census, 2010. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Popul. Space Place (2015) DOI: 10.1002/psp

Internal and International Migration in East and Southeast Asia It is apparent, however, that there are in Asia many migrants who fulfil the last three of these criteria but their displacement has occurred within national boundaries. Hugo (1987) demonstrated, in the case of Southeast Asia, that conflicts associated with nation building, colonial and neo-colonial forces, changing class, cultural, ethnic and religious relationships have been powerful drivers of migration as much within countries as between them in the region. Yet this movement has attracted much less attention from policy makers and researchers than international displacements. The drivers and impacts of forced migration and the needs of those displaced are often no different among the internally displaced as among mandated refugees (e.g. Hugo, 2002, 2006b). The UNHCR (United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees) was set up in order to assist mandated refugees but over the years increasingly recognised that significant numbers of people are forced to move owing to a well founded fear of persecution within countries. Accordingly they have recognised a separate category of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) which are defined as: ‘Persons or group of persons who have been forced to flee or to leave their homes or places of habitual residence, in particular, as a result of, or in order to avoid the effects of, armed conflict, internal strife, systematic violations of human rights, or natural or man-made disasters, and who have not crossed an internationally recognised State border’ (Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), 2004). While the UNHCR has been an important provider of assistance to IDPs, they have not been subsumed under the refugee rubric and are considered as a quite separate category of forced migrant. Nevertheless, again one is struck more by the similarities between IDP migration processes and refugee migrants than the differences. Attention is increasingly being placed on types of forced migration other than those initiated by conflict. These include people displaced by development projects, prolonged drought and environmental impacts including climate change. The burgeoning of policy and research interest in the latter has seen a highly contested debate on the issue of so-called ‘climate change refugees’ emerge (McAdam, 2010). Environmentally displaced Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

migrants clearly do not fall within the UNHCR definition of a refugee so there have been calls for a new separate international regime. The focus in this discussion has squarely been upon environmentally displaced persons crossing international borders. However, studies of environmental impact on migration in Asia and elsewhere have shown that overwhelmingly such moves have occurred within countries (Hugo & Bardsley, 2014). While it could be argued that environmental factors are likely to increase as a factor impelling movements across international borders as the impacts of climate change are exacerbated most environmental migration has been, and will remain, within national boundaries (Barnett & Webber, 2009). This is especially the case in large countries. A basic principle of both research and policy relating to environmentally induced migration is that it should be inclusive of both internal and international movements. There are a number of other elements in contemporary international migration theory which are arguably equally as important to achieving an understanding of internal migration. Three that will briefly be considered here are labour market segmentation, the migration industry and social networks. Labour market segmentation (Piore, 1979; Massey et al., 1993: 455–456) involves migrants dominating particular jobs which are not attractive to the native population. In the Asian case, the bulk of Overseas Contract Workers (OCWs) fill jobs which are of low status, low income and have little security and they concentrate in particular occupations. The reasons for labour market segmentation are complex, but it is clear that in societies which have experienced substantial economic development that workers become increasingly reluctant to work in jobs which have low status in their society. There are a number of implications which flow from labour market segmentation. Piore (1979) argues that labour market segmentation is a structural feature of developed nations which exerts an increasing ‘pull’ on workers in less developed countries. Hence this migration is often more demand than supply based. The demand for immigrant workers grows out of the structural needs of the economy of destination areas and is structurally entrenched in those economies so that demand for OCWs is long term, continuing and probably increasing. It is evident Popul. Space Place (2015) DOI: 10.1002/psp

G. J. Hugo in internal migration that similar processes operate between large urban destinations and rural origin areas. Also, in international migration there is increasing attention being given to institutional factors influencing migration. In particular, involvement of the complex varied group of recruiters, travel agents, lawyers, agents of various kinds, travel providers, immigration officials and an array of gatekeepers of various kinds. There can be no doubt that much of the migration in Asia is at least facilitated, and often initiated, by these crucial intermediaries and this is especially the case for international labour migration and especially for the segment of that movement which is clandestine. However, such agents have long been of critical importance in internal migration in Asia. In Indonesia, for example, agents variously known as calo, taikong, tauke or mandor are highly organised and are crucial facilitators of the international migration process (Spaan, 1994). They operate both within and outside existing legal constraints. The range of important roles that the middlemen play in the migration process include recruitment of workers, arranging the moves, obtaining jobs at destination, settling in the workers at the destination and facilitating the flow of remittances to the area of origin. Yet such agents also play a role in recruiting migrant workers not only for large enterprises in cities but also in attracting workers to plantations, mining and construction activity in the Outer Islands of Indonesia. It is not sufficiently acknowledged that the majority of migrants in Asia, both internal and international, move along well trodden paths, which, if they have not travelled along them before themselves, have been traversed by family members and friends. Migrants tend to travel with friends or family and have a range of contacts at the destination. The networks that are established linking origin and destination become key elements in sustaining and enhancing population flows between them. These networks inject a self-perpetuating dynamism into flows of population, which allows movement to continue long after the original economic reasons for the flow have been superseded or rendered redundant. Whenever a person immigrates, every individual that they know acquires social capital in the form of a contact at the mover’s destination which can be ‘cashed in’ at any time to obtain help in getting a job or accommodation and social Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

support while adjusting to the destination. The networks established by earlier generations of movers from families and localities act as conduits to channel later generations of movers to those destinations in an atmosphere of certainty. Previous generations of movers have not only supplied valuable information and encouragement but often paid for, or arranged and eased, the passage. Moreover, when the immigrant arrives at the destination, the destination-end of the network lends valuable assistance in the adjustment process, especially through assisting in gaining access to housing and employment. The fundamental role of networks is to greatly reduce the risks associated with migration and, many movers in Asia thus operate in an environment of total certainty. This risk minimisation factor is important. While other factors are necessary to initiate the beginning of a new limb of the network once the pioneer(s) is established at the destination, the increase in the subsequent flow can be rapid. Social networks operate as much in internal as international migration in Asia. Notions of transnational linkages and diaspora which are fundamental to transnationalism thinking on migration (Dunn, 2005) also have resonance in internal migration. Rural–urban linkages maintained by migrants in cities have been recognised as crucial conduits of remittances, ideas and ways of doing things in a similar way to their international counterpart. SOME OTHER DIMENSIONS OF CONVERGENCE Incorporation of international migrants into destination societies and economies has become an area of increasing attention among both policymakers and researchers (Fix, 2007). Bean and Brown (2010) recognise three major theories of immigrant and ethnic group integration in destination countries: • The Assimilation Model: This approach involves the convergence of immigrant groups toward the ‘mainstream’, majority population. This ‘melting pot’ approach sees ‘immigrant/ ethnic and majority groups becoming more similar over time in their norms, values, behaviours and characteristics … it would expect those immigrants residing the longest in the Popul. Space Place (2015) DOI: 10.1002/psp

Internal and International Migration in East and Southeast Asia host society and the members of later generations would show greater similarities to the majority group than immigrants who have been there shorter times’ (Bean & Brown, 2010: 94). • The Ethnic Disadvantage Model: This theory suggests that lingering discrimination and institutional barriers prevent migrants from achieving upward mobility so that integration remains incomplete. • The Segmented Assimilation Model: The idea of this approach brings together elements of both the assimilation and ethnic disadvantage perspectives. It argues that some migrants experience structural barriers which limit their access to employment and other opportunities while others experience upward mobility (Portes et al., 2005). This approach emphasises multiple pathways to incorporation and the policy emphasis is on identifying the contextual, structural and cultural factors that separate successful incorporation from unsuccessful integration. Incorporation of immigrants in international destinations can be impeded by barriers of language, culture, religion, lack of local knowledge of labour and housing markets, recognition of qualifications and the legal status of migrants. This ‘othering’ of migrants compared with local native populations is undoubtedly more likely to occur in international, than in internal, migration. Nevertheless, in Asia there are instances where internal migrants moving to large cities from peripheral areas confront difficulties in adjustment due to having different ethnicity, language, culture or religion to the dominant local population. Moreover, in both internal and international migrations there are similar mechanisms which assist newcomers in their incorporation at the destination. As in the initiation of migration in the first place, social networks play a crucial role in assisting both internal and international migrants to enter destination labour and housing markets as well as adjust in other ways. Moreover internal migrants often settle in enclaves in cities which have concentrations of former migrants from their region of origin as well as churches and mosques and businesses and services operated by earlier generations of migrants. Occupational and residential clustering is common among internal as well as international Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

migrants. Formal migrant associations which are common among international migrant settlers to facilitate adjustment at the destination are also found among students and other internal migrants in large cities in Asia. A second issue relates to the contemporary debate in international migration research and practice regarding circular migration. There has been a longstanding discussion on international temporary labour migration with commentators pointing to the long history of exploitation of labour migrants, denial of their rights, lack of opportunities for social mobility and their exclusion from destination societies (Castles, 2006a, b; Vertovec, 2006). A ‘new twist’ (Ruhs & Martin 2008: 250) in the discourse on temporary labour migration in the region in the last decade, however, has been the argument that by sending workers abroad low income countries can derive a net positive development impact and reduction in poverty (Global Commission on International Migration (GCIM), 2005; World Bank, 2006; United Nations, 2006). Moreover an important part of that argument has been that temporary labour migration programs may be better able to deliver such development and poverty reduction dividends more effectively than permanent or semi-permanent migration of nationals (Vertovec, 2006; Global Commission on International Migration (GCIM), 2005). This greater impact derives from the fact that circular migrants remit a greater proportion of their incomes to their home-based families because they usually travel without their families, that they retain a higher level of commitment to the home community and that they are more likely to return to the home country than their permanent migrant counterparts. Moreover the fact that their stay in the destination was temporary can overcome anti-immigrant sentiment at the destination. Hence there have been strong voices for ‘carefully designed temporary migration programs as a means for addressing the economic needs of both countries of origin and destination’ (Global Commission on International Migration (GCIM), 2005: 16). The Global Commission on International Migration (2005: 31) report concludes that ‘the old paradigm of permanent migrant settlement is progressively giving away to temporary and circular migration and that there is a need ‘to grasp the developmental opportunities that this Popul. Space Place (2015) DOI: 10.1002/psp

G. J. Hugo important shift in migration patterns provides for countries of origin’. This call has subsequently been taken up by policy makers (Department for International Development (DFID), 2007; European Commission, 2007). Academics, however, have varied support and outright opposition to the argument that non-permanent migration can deliver win–win–win development dividends (Castles, 2006a; Martin et al., 2006; Ruhs, 2006; Vertovec, 2006; International Organization for Migration (IOM), 2008). Despite this flurry of debate, the body of empirical evidence and theory available to guide migration policy makers remains meagre, especially compared with that available concerning permanent settlement. Indeed, in most countries data on non-permanent migration and emigration is lacking or incomplete, so it is not possible to establish its scale and composition let alone their drivers and impact. Hence much writing on non-permanent and return migration is based upon small scale case studies or studies of unrepresentative groups of such migrants. In fact there is a considerable body of research on internal circular migration (Elkan, 1967; Bedford, 1973; Hugo, 1978, 1982; Chapman, 1979; Chapman & Prothero, 1985). This literature provides a number of insights into this form of movement which may have relevance for international migration.

MIGRATION AND DEVELOPMENT One of the major developments in contemporary international migration thinking has related to its potential positive impacts on economic development and poverty reduction in origin countries which has overtaken brain drain considerations in addressing migration and development (World Bank, 2006). In fact, studies of migration and development in Asia have long recognised its complexity and the fact that it can have both positive and negative impacts in origin areas. In this context it is useful to examine the work of Skeldon (1997) which predates the upsurge of academic and policy interest in international migration being able to deliver ‘triple win’ development dividends to origin, destination and the migrants themselves. He demonstrates, with a strong focus on Asia, the complexity of the migration–development relationship. Importantly, however, he does not make a distinction Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

between internal and international migration in exploring the relationship. The contemporary discourse, both academic and policy related, on migration and development in the region is almost totally focused on international migration. However, all of the arguments equally applicable to internal migration and internal population redistribution are on a much greater scale, and its potential for facilitating development in peripheral parts of the national space is neglected. The process of rural to urban migration, both permanent and temporary, has arguably been one of the fundamentally most important changes in the region since World War II and its implications for both national and regional development are substantial. Yet, almost the entire focus of the migration and development discourse in Asia is on international migration. One of the very few exceptions was the UNDP (2009) Human Development Report on Human Mobility and Development. This influential report sees the complex relationship between migration and development in a holistic way considering both internal and international migrations. Similarly, Skeldon (2006) shows blurring between internal and international migration in Asian urbanisation and development. This is well illustrated with the case of the megacity of Shanghai which has played such a key role in recent rapid Chinese economic development. According to the 2010 Population Census in China: • Some 39% of Shanghai’s population (8.977 million persons) were internal migrants who were crucial to the city’s economy. • Some 208 300 persons (second only to Guangdong in China) were international migrants according to the Census. Almost one-third (31.3%) were from Hong Kong, Taiwan and Macao. However, there were large numbers from Japan (29 682), USA (23 602), Korea (19 764), France (7482), Germany (6893), Canada (6535), Singapore (5957) and Australia (5420). They play a key role in managerial, professional and highly skilled positions in the urban economy as well as business. Some 27.3% of the international migrants indicated they came to Shanghai for employment while 22.8% came to do business. Skeldon (2006) argues that it is important to link internal and international migration in Popul. Space Place (2015) DOI: 10.1002/psp

Internal and International Migration in East and Southeast Asia considerations of migration’s role in economic development and poverty reduction. LINKAGES BETWEEN INTERNAL AND INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION One of the unfortunate outcomes of the siloisation of internal and international migration research has been the neglect of the important linkages between them. Skeldon (2006) argues that while there are sufficient differences between internal and international migration to warrant separate identification, he demonstrates with cases from South and East Asia that: • Internal migration can be a precursor to international migration in a stepwise or escalator (Fielding, 1992) fashion. • International migrants have a distinctive pattern of internal migration at the destination compared with non-migrants. • Internal and international migration can be alternative strategies open to potential migrants or one can substitute for the other (International Organisation for Migration, 2008: 181). International migration may have an influence upon the internal migration of the native population at the destination. • Return international migrants may adopt a distinctive form of internal migration on returning to their homeland. First, a major linkage demonstrated by Skeldon (2006: 20) in the South Asian case is: between internal and international migration is migrants moving from villages towards urban areas, perhaps the largest city in any country, and then after some time moving on to an international destination. These patterns have also been demonstrated in Indonesia where international labour migrants often follow a pattern of moving from a village to one of the small number of major cities from which they are recruited to work as contract labour migrants in the Middle East or elsewhere in Asia (Hugo, 2003). One of the key forms of escalator migration involving internal migration as a precursor to international migration in Asia is the movement of workers from largely rural hinterland areas to Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

transit zones which are the launching points for international labour migration. An insightful study by Lyons and Ford (2007) demonstrates the special character of internal and international migration in the Riau Islands of Indonesia. They show how the geographical proximity of Riau to Singapore and Malaysia and the formation of the Indonesia–Malaysia–Singapore Growth Triangle has made it not only a magnet for internal migrants intending to move internationally but other inland migrants and return migrants. They identify the difficulties associated with labelling migrant workers as either “internal” or “international” (Lyons & Ford, 2007: 256), when there is so much coming and going involving both internal and international movements, documented and undocumented movements, and permanent, circular and temporary movements. These movement patterns are duplicated and influenced by patterns of social networks and networks of agents and other intermediaries which also are both within Indonesia and across its international borders.

CONCLUSION East and Southeast Asia is one of the contemporary world’s most dynamic regions experiencing rapid economic growth and massive structural, social and demographic transformations. One of the causes and consequences of this change has been a massive increase in personal mobility. International migration and internal mobility, both permanent and temporary, are also growing rapidly (United Nations, 2013). Mobility is now part of the calculus of choice of most Asians as they weigh up their life chances. It can and does provide opportunities for them to improve their lives. Mobility can have outcomes in terms of economic development and poverty reduction for families, communities, regions and nations. Moreover whether or not those outcomes are positive can be influenced by policy. Development of such policy is predicated upon a better understanding of the causes and impacts of different types of movement in different contexts. However, one of the barriers to this improved understanding of mobility is the siloisation of thinking, research and policy between movement within countries and that between countries and Popul. Space Place (2015) DOI: 10.1002/psp

G. J. Hugo that a more holistic consideration of migration in the region is needed. One of the major elements in this siloisation is between migration within countries and that between them. Undoubtedly there are important differences between them – international borders do matter when it comes to migration in East and Southeast Asia. Yet this paper has sought to demonstrate that there are also important convergences and similarities. At present in the region our understanding of both types of mobility is being hampered by the failure to transfer lessons regarding the causes and consequences of internal migration to international migration and vice versa. On the one hand we are spending scarce resources ‘rediscovering the wheel’ but more importantly we are not being able to derive the deeper understandings of the drivers and effects of mobility per se. What is needed to overcome these problems? As suggested in this paper there is a need to integrate data collection efforts in censuses and surveys so that information on both internal and international migrants is collected together and is comparable. More research is needed which includes both internal and international migrants, especially longitudinal research which traces the moves of the same individuals and groups within and between countries. Importantly, too, there are structural barriers to break down to create a productive dialogue between scholars and practitioners across the two areas. Residents of East and Southeast Asia are ‘on the move’ to a greater extent than ever in their history. It is clear that policy does have a role in influencing not only the levels and patterns of mobility but also its outcomes. It is critical that such policy is informed by the detailed understanding of mobility and this will be facilitated if we can take a more holistic approach to the study of mobility within the region. This is especially important if we are going to maximise the potential of increased personal mobility to improve the lives of those who are disadvantaged and not sharing in the region’s massive economic and social development. NOTE (1) Although Hoju was abolished in South Korea in 2008. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Popul. Space Place (2015) DOI: 10.1002/psp