The status of nuclear electricity production in European energy policies Jacques Bouchard Special Advisor to the Chairman of CEA International Advisor to the Chairman of JAEA
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Nuclear Capacity per zones • In 2012, after the shutdown of eight German reactors, Western Europe was still the largest user of nuclear for electricity generation: World Area
Number of reactors
Capacity (GWe)
Western Europe
122
116
North America
122
114
Asia
113
84
Rest of the world
78
55
• The number of reactors in construction in China will give rapidly the advantage to Asia, assuming Japan restarts a majority of its 50 reactors. JB FUKUI 141021
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The Map of European NPPs
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Primary Energy Consumption in Europe Primary Energy consumption In European countries. European Union + Switzerland and Turkey
Tep/year/capita
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Europe and Nuclear Energy • The development of nuclear energy was a common objective from the beginning of the European Union with the EURATOM treaty. • Today, there is no more common view as many countries have decided unilaterally to stop nuclear. • Tchernobyl and the growing popularity of antinuclear NGOs have been the main factors of the change of policies in the 90s. • Fukushima and the dreams associated to renewable energy are still enhancing the trend.
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Natural Resources differ among countries • Some European countries have large coal resources: Germany, Poland. • UK, Netherlands and Norway share the North Sea resources of oil and gas but a large part of these resources are already consumed. • Most of the other European countries, including France, Italy and Spain, have no or few fossil resources. • There is a capacity to produce hydroelectricity in many countries but most of it has been equipped and, except for Norway, the part of hydro in the electricity generation is decreasing when consumption is growing. • These different status regarding natural resources can explain partly the various energy policies and the place of nuclear in the energy mix but it is not the only explanation. JB FUKUI 141021
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Some Countries have Coal
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The North Sea Treasures
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The Case of Italy (1) • Italy has rejected the use of nuclear energy by two referendums in 1987, following Tchernobyl and in 2011 after Fukushima. • In both cases it was by a large majority supported not only by greens but by most of the politicians and scientists. • It is the only country which has completely stopped existing NPPs and dismantled all its nuclear facilities. • Nevertheless Italy is the largest importer of electricity in the world, mainly from French nuclear plants (directly or through Switzerland). • Electricity in Italy is the most expensive in Europe, more than twice the price in France. JB FUKUI 141021
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The Case of Italy (2) Italy has no fossil resources. It has a large hydro capacity in the northern part of the country. Its situation is not favorable for windmills but the southern part of the country offers one of the best location in Europe for solar energy.
Today, Italy is mainly relying on imported fossil fuels to provide its electricity. JB FUKUI 141021
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Sweden: A Different Story By the middle of the 80s 12 reactors were providing more than half of the Swedish electricity. After TMI, in 1980 the country decided by referendum to withdraw progressively from nuclear and to be rid of it by 2000. After Tchernobyl, in 1986, it was decided to stop prematurely two reactors. In fact, they were definitely shutdown in 1999 and 2005. In 2009, the decision to withdraw was cancelled for environmental reasons as stopping nuclear generation of electricity will lead to import electricity from fossil fuel generation thus increasing the carbon release.
Electricity in Sweden is mostly zero carbon: 44% hydro, 40% nuclear, 8% biomass, 4% wind, 3% fossil fuels JB FUKUI 141021
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The German Energy Policy Germany has a long history of societal and political fights over nuclear energy. Some of the fights led to negative judicial or political decisions: The reactor built at Muelheim Kaerlich, a 1300 MWe PWR was definitely shutdown after only a few months of operation. There are huge protests against any attempt to transport and store waste. The Kalkar plant, a 300 MWe fast reactor was completed but never put in operation.
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Anti-Nuclear Germany • The Green Party and anti-nuclear NGOs have been growing in Germany during the 70s and 80s more than in any other industrialized country. • Germany has plenty of coal mainly since the reunification and the coal industry is very strong and self defensive. • During the cold war, Germany was in the middle of feared nuclear fights and part of the opposition to nuclear energy comes from the protests against military risks. • The Tchernobyl disaster was a real trauma for German people and the measures taken by the government to protect the population have still increase the fear. • Fukushima has been a cherry on the cake for anti-nuclear movements. JB FUKUI 141021
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A Long Process not yet Completed • The German Nuclear industry, utilities and makers, was very strong and tried to resist the opposition with, during many years, the support of a political majority. • The political situation evolved progressively with a growing opposition of the socialist party and electoral successes of the green party. • When the country was reunified, in 1990, the dominant western political and industrial forces decided to shutdown definitely the nuclear reactors built in the East by Russia. • Ten years later, the green party was associated for the government by the socialists. Their leader, as Minister of Environment, obtained the decision to withdraw definitely from nuclear within twenty years. JB FUKUI 141021
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The Present Status and the Future • In 2009, Mrs. Merkel came back on the decision to withdraw and delayed the closing dates. But, in the few days following Fukushima accident, she decided to stop immediately eight reactors and to limit to 2022 the operation of the nine reactors still on the grid. • Today, the German electricity comes from coal (45%), gas (11%), nuclear (16%), wind (8%), other (20%). • In spite of huge subsides (> 10 billions euros/year), the share of renewable energies remains quite low and the reduction of nuclear has benefitted to fossil fuels. • German electricity is the most expensive (same level as Italy) in Europe, twice more than in France. • It is probably not the end of the story. JB FUKUI 141021
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The 2011 German Moratorium
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Some Followers • Two countries decided to follow the example of Germany and to withdraw progressively from nuclear energy, Belgium and Switzerland. In both cases, it is still debated. Belgium has 7 reactors producing 54% of its electricity. The deadline to stop nuclear is 2025. The country is not ready to replace nuclear and could be facing some blackout.
TIHANGE
LEIBSTADT
Switzerland has 5 reactors generating 40% of its electricity. The deadline to stop nuclear is 2034. Many changes could occur in the mean time. JB FUKUI 141021
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Most of Europe is still in favor of Nuclear Energy • Till now Italy is the only case of complete stopping. A few small countries (Austria, Denmark,..) which have plenty of other resources are anti-nuclear from the beginning. • Germany, Belgium, Switzerland, while reducing their dependency, will remain nuclear for many years and could still change their policy as Sweden has done. • Spain, which has eight reactors in operation, is not clear on the future while investing massively in renewable. • France, UK, Finland and Slovakia have new nuclear plants in construction. • Most of the Central and Eastern Europe countries are still nuclear even if many reactors built by Russia have been shutdown. JB FUKUI 141021
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France Remains an Exception • With 58 PWRs producing more than 75% of its electricity, France remains an exception in Europe and in the world. • The safety and operation record is satisfactory with no accident and a regular operation of the plants in a flexible mode to allow part of the follow-up of the demand. • The cost of electricity and the carbon release in France are among the lowest in Europe, only in competition with countries using mainly hydroelectricity. • In spite of this exceptional record, the opponents to nuclear are fighting very strongly and, for electoral reasons, the socialist party try to compromise with them. • The actual problems are the renewal of the fleet and the update of existing reactors if extending their lifetime. JB FUKUI 141021
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French Nuclear Plants GRAVELINES
EPR
PALUEL PENLY
FLAMANVILLE NOGENT / SEINE
ST‐LAURENT
• 20 1300 MWe units CHOOZ
FESSENHEIM
• 4 1500 MWe units
CATTENOM
DAMPIERRE BELLEVILLE
CHINON CIVAUX
• 34 900 MWe units
58 PWR units 63184 MWe installed
BUGEY
ST‐ALBAN
LE BLAYAIS GOLFECH
CRUAS
TRICASTIN
Connection to the grid : – Unit 1 (Fessenheim 1) : April 1977 – Unit 58 (Civaux 2) : Décember 1999
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UK Ready for New Built • UK has made a large investment in nuclear in the 60s and 70s but has stopped after the discovery of north sea oil resources. • All the industrial electric sector has been privatized and a subsidiary of French EDF has become the main operator of NPPS. • Today, UK has sixteen operating reactors, all belonging to two generations of graphite reactors except one PWR. • Looking to the cost of renewable energies, the government has decided to limit their implementation and to accept private investment in nuclear new built. • EDF has submitted a proposal to build two EPRs at Hinkley Point and has a deal with the government on the guarantee for buying the generated electricity. JB FUKUI 141021
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The Hinkley Point Project for two EPRs
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A Fifth Reactor in Finland, then a Sixth • Finland has surprised everyone in 2003, when deciding to build a fifth nuclear reactor in a country which has only been operating two Swedish and two Russians units for more than twenty years. • The decision was made by a group of electro-intensive industries looking for a cheap and stable source of energy. The construction of the reactor, an EPR, has been delayed several times for many reasons, the economy crisis, new safety requirements, disagreement between the utility and the maker…
OLKILUOTO
The process to build a sixth reactor is already started. JB FUKUI 141021
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Renewable Energy is more fashionable • Developing the use of renewable energy is a worldwide trend favored by public opinion as being free and soft energy resources. • European countries have been particularly sensitive to the trend with a propaganda from antinuclear organizations. • Today only wind and solar technologies are ready for industrial use. Both are low efficiency intermittent sources unable to provide a reliable base load source of electricity. • Some European countries, in particular Germany and Spain, have spent a huge amount of money to build windmills and solar farms with no surprising results: high costs, perturbation of the grid, need to have coal or gas plants to compensate the intermittence… JB FUKUI 141021
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And Who is the Winner? • Even if nuclear energy remains an important option in Europe, it has been considerably affected by the strong opposition taking benefit of Tchernobyl and Fukushima. • There is certainly more to take from renewable energies but the path followed in the last ten years, wind and solar on the grid, is obviously a dead-end creating economic bubbles and used as a screen to still develop the use of fossil fuels. • Coal is still used in countries with domestic resources, such as Germany or Poland, but practical constraints and pollution limit the use in other countries. • Oil is too expensive and so the winner is natural gas. JB FUKUI 141021
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A Future European Policy (1) • The only common goals among the energy policies of European countries are the general reduction of energy consumption and a strong decrease of carbon release. • In most European countries, the energy consumption has been stabilized for the last ten years and the prospect of a strong decrease is the wish of some governments. • It should be done only through a better efficiency of various energy uses but many NGOs are also in favor of increasing the price of energy to reduce the demand. • Reduction of the consumption and decrease of the carbon release could be contradictory in some cases such as the replacement in France of nuclear electricity heating by gas burning. JB FUKUI 141021
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A Future European Policy (2) • Another common goal is the development of renewable energies. But there are debates on the path to follow and on the way to limit some negative consequences. • A first example has been the support to the development of biofuels. Financial subsidies have helped to develop an industry which is counterproductive as it was predicted by scientists from the beginning. • Windmills and solar panels are quite expensive solutions to generate electricity. Thus they are developed only with huge subsidies. The Commission, executive body of the European Union, is criticizing such subsidies… • Furthermore, these renewable energies need to be complemented (for 80% of the production) by fossil fuels facilities which goes against the goal of carbon release. JB FUKUI 141021
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A Future European Policy (3) • Ideological positions prevent the E.U. from adopting an overall policy. It could be easy to integrate the specificity of each country in a common policy as it has been done for agriculture or other sectors. The actual blockage is on nuclear. • Austria, for instance, is against the use of nuclear energy everywhere and whatever the conditions. • The Austrian Government has recently announced that it will sue the European Union if the Commission gives a green light to the agreement between the UK government and EDF for the construction of EPRs at Hinkley-Point. • It is an example of the blockage to define a real European policy for energy. JB FUKUI 141021
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