The Rise of ‘Outsider’ Parties in the 2014 EU Elections A Henry Jackson Society Briefing May 2014

Published in May 2014 by The Henry Jackson Society The Henry Jackson Society 8th Floor, Parker Tower 43-49 Parker Street London WC2B 5PS Registered charity no. 1140489 Tel: +44 (0)20 7340 4520 www.henryjacksonsociety.org © The Henry Jackson Society 2014 The Henry Jackson Society All rights reserved The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and are not necessarily indicative of those of The Henry Jackson Society or its Trustees The Rise of ‘Outsider’ Parties in the 2014 EU Elections A Henry Jackson Society Briefing ISBN 978-1-909035-15-7 £10.00 where sold All rights reserved Front Cover Image: The European Parliament in Brussels (© querbeet/iStockPhoto.com)

The Rise of ‘Outsider’ Parties in the 2014 EU Elections

AUTHOR | AUTHOR A Henry Jackson Society Briefing May 2014

The Rise of ‘Outsider’ Parties in the 2014 EU Elections

The Henry Jackson Society The Henry Jackson Society is a cross-partisan think-tank based in London. The Henry Jackson Society is a think tank and policy-shaping force that fights for the principles and alliances which keep societies free – working across borders and party lines to combat extremism, advance democracy and real human rights, and make a stand in an increasingly uncertain world. The Henry Jackson Society is a company limited by guarantee, registered in England and Wales under company number 07465741, and a charity registered in England and Wales under registered charity number 1140489. For more information about The Henry Jackson Society activities; our research programme; and public events, please see: www.henryjacksonsociety.org.

Acknowledgements

The Rise of ‘Outsider’ Parties in the 2014 EU Elections

Executive Summary In the wake of the Eurozone crisis, the rise of ‘outsider’ parties from both ends of the political spectrum has increased concerns over the future viability of the European project. In some countries, traditionally fringe parties have been able to force their way into the political mainstream. Ahead of the elections between 22 and 25 May 2014, which look likely to test this at a European level, this report examines these rising political parties.

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The Netherlands: anti-immigration Party for Freedom (PVV) (16%); anti-austerity Socialist Party (14%); total (30%); Sweden: Eurosceptic Left Party (10.8%); populist right Sweden Democrats (10.0%); total (20.8%).

14 countries feature only one popular ‘outsider’ party. Of these parties, UKIP is polling the most favourably ■ These ‘outsider’ parties are: UKIP (24.7%); the Danish People's Party (DF) (24%); France’s National Front (21.5%); the Freedom Party Austria (FPO) (21%); Italy’s Five Star Movement (M5S) (21%); the Progressive Party of Working People in Cyprus (AKEL) (20%); Lithuania’s Order and Justice Party (20%); Ireland’s Sinn Féin (19%); the Finns Party (18%); Hungary’s Jobbik (16%); Spain’s United Left (14%); the Democratic Unitarian Coalition in Portugal (CDU) (12%); Bulgaria Without Censorship (10%); and, the Croatian Labourists – Labour Party (HL-SR) (10%).

The report identifies 25 parties in 19 EU member states which belong to the fringe left-wing GUE-NGL, right-wing EFD and non-aligned NI blocs within the European Parliament. All have been predicted either to win 10% (or more) of the national vote or to rank in the top three most successful parties/coalitions in the most recent national opinion polls (as of 1 April 2014). The report provides comprehensive profiles of these ‘outsider’ parties and analyses key trends found among them.

KEY FINDINGS

Fringe blocs

‘Outsider’ parties and countries

Non-aligned parties were most commonly identified, followed closely by those in the furthest left bloc, while few belong to the furthest right bloc ■ 11 out of the 25 parties identified are NI; 10 parties belong to the GUE-NGL; and four belong to the EFD.

Four ‘outsider’ parties are polling a quarter (or more) of the national vote ■ The pro-Russia Harmony Centre (Latvia, 37%); the radically anti-austerity SYRIZA (Greece, 25.4%); populist ANO 2011 (Czech Republic, 24.8%); and the Eurosceptic United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) (24.7%).

National Parliamentary representation Almost all parties (23/25) are represented in their respective national parliaments; only UKIP and The River have no MPs ■ Two parties have 30% (or more) of available seats: AKEL (19 of 56 seats, 33.9%) and the Harmony Centre (31/100, 31%); ■ Three parties have between 20 and 29%: SYRIZA (71/300, 23.7%); ANO 2011 (47/200, 23.5%); and FPO (40/183, 21.9%); ■ Seven parties have between 10% and 19%; the remaining 11 have fewer than 10%; ■ Some of the most well-known ‘outsider’ parties hold a relatively small proportion of seats: PVV, for example, holds 12/150 (8%); Golden Dawn holds 18/300 (6%); and the National Front has the lowest level of those parties with parliamentary representation at 2/577 (0.3%).

Greece is the only country where three ‘outsider’ parties are predicted to secure 10% (or more), polling almost half (49.7%) of the national vote between them ■ SYRIZA (25.4%); new anti-establishment party The River (13.6%); and fascist Golden Dawn (10.7%). Four countries feature two popular ‘outsider’ parties. In order of predicted national vote share (highest–lowest), they are: Latvia; the Czech Republic; the Netherlands; and Sweden ■ Latvia: Harmony Centre (37%); nationalist agrarian Union of Green and Farmers (ZZS) (17%); total (54%); ■ Czech Republic: ANO 2011 (24.8%); far-left Czech Communist Party (CPBM) (14.8%); total (39.6%); i

The Rise of ‘Outsider’ Parties in the 2014 EU Elections

19 of the 25 parties have competed in at least two recent parliamentary elections ■ 12 increased their share of the vote: SYRIZA (by 23 percentage points) and the Finns Party (15) saw the largest increase; UKIP saw the smallest increase (0.9); ■ Six saw their vote share decrease: ZZS (by 7.5) and PVV (5.4) saw the largest decrease; ■ One party’s (CDU) vote share remained the same.

Controversies 11 of the 25 parties have been involved in religious hatred-related controversies ■ The majority of these parties (8/11) have a history of anti-Muslim-related controversies or policies (FPO; DF; Finns Party; National Front; PVV; Socialist Party; Sweden Democrats; UKIP); a smaller number have been involved in anti-Semitism-related controversies, with four including members censured for Holocaust denial or anti-Semitic conspiracy theory (National Front; Golden Dawn; SYRIZA; Jobbik); ■ Of these 11 parties, SYRIZA is the only GUE-NGL member.

European representation Four of the 25 parties failed to secure seats in the European Parliament in the June 2009 elections, yet have since increased in popularity by between two- and twenty-fold ■ They are: Golden Dawn (won 0.5% in 2009; predicted 10.7% in 2014); ZZS (3.8%, 2009; predicted 17% in 2014); Sweden Democrats (3.3% in 2009; predicted 10% in 2014); and Sinn Féin (11.2% in 2009; predicted 19% in 2014).

Nine of the 25 parties have been involved in racism-related controversies ■ The majority of these relate to immigrants from Africa or Asia, with MPs or candidates from eight parties (FPO; DF; Finns Party; National Front; Golden Dawn; PVV; Sweden Democrats; UKIP) involved; in addition, two parties (National Front; Jobbik) have been criticised for anti-Roma remarks and/or policy suggestions; ■ All are members of EFD or NI.

Policy positions 16 of the 25 parties can be described as ‘Eurosceptic’ ■ Anti-EU sentiments identified across all three fringe blocs range from calls to renegotiate current treaty commitments to demands for an immediate exit from the political union.

Nine of the 25 parties have been involved in controversies involving far-right/neo-Nazi/Nazi links ■ Of these, two thirds have seen party members or associates accused of using Neo-Nazi/Nazi imagery including Nazi salutes or songs (Finns Party; National Front; Golden Dawn; Jobbik; ZZS; Socialist Party); ■ Of these nine, the Socialist Party is the only GUE-NGL member.

11 of the 25 parties can be identified as ‘anti-immigration’ ■ Anti-immigration sentiments identified in the non-aligned and furthest right bloc range from parties calling for an end to immigration from all Muslim-majority countries (i.e. PVV; DF) to European immigration reform returning powers to national governments (i.e. The River).

Eight of the 25 parties have been involved in corruption-related controversies ■ Half of these parties belong to GUE-NGL; ■ Two (Bulgaria without Censorship; The River) can be described as anti-corruption.

11 of the 25 parties prioritise opposition to NATO ■ The majority (8/11) belong to the furthest left bloc; the remaining three are Sweden Democrats, Golden Dawn and the Finns Party. Nine of the 25 parties can be described as anti-corruption ■ Half of these were formed after the 2009 European elections: M5S (2009); ANO 2011; Bulgaria Without Censorship (2014); and The River (2014).

Six of the 25 parties have been involved in homophobia-related controversies ■ All are members of EFD or NI; ■ MPs from two of these parties have submitted unsuccessful bills to their country’s national parliament: calling for a ban on the “promotion of sexual deviations” (Jobbik); or forbidding Gay Pride parades, public speeches, or campaign materials supporting LGBT rights (Order and Justice Party).

Eight of the 25 parties prioritise criticism of EU anti-austerity measures ■ Three quarters of these parties belong to the GUE-NGL bloc; the remaining two are Golden Dawn and M5S. ii

The Rise of ‘Outsider’ Parties in the 2014 EU Elections

Five of the 25 parties have been involved in controversies involving violence/murder (or the threat of) ■ The Left Party is the only GUE-NGL member; all others are NI; ■ Two have been repeatedly accused of violence against minority communities: Golden Dawn MPs and members have been involved in anti-immigrant violence, or been accused of incitement; Jobbik’s quasi-paramilitary Magyar Guard was proscribed after anti-Roma rallies throughout Hungary.

A right-wing ‘wrecking’ alliance? Leaders of populist right-wing parties are attempting to capitalise on rising Euroscepticism by forming a new European political group to, in their own words, “wreck” the parliament from the inside. While these parties would still collectively remain a minority and clashes of personalities and policy positions could potentially rupture such an alliance, it could also pull parties in the current EFD bloc even further to the right.

KEY THEMES Anti-establishment politics Among the parties profiled, anti-austerity views are more frequently found in the countries most affected by the Eurozone crisis. Parties identified as exploiting anti-immigration rhetoric are concentrated in the more affluent countries of Western and Northern Europe, with a smaller number on the continents’ poorer Southern and Eastern borders. EU integration and NATO Euroscepticism appears to unite the political fringes, with the right focusing on the EU’s so-called democracy deficit and the left opposing its ‘neoliberal’ agenda. Despite this, parties which demand an immediate exit from the political union and/or those which threaten to leave NATO and close foreign military bases are in a minority. ‘Outsider’ impact on domestic politics ‘Outsider’ parties can also function on the ‘inside’ of, or have an impact on, domestic politics. The PVV and DF supported coalition governments in return for concessions on immigration; while UKIP has become central to British political discourse. Their influence has helped encourage right-wing shifts domestically and/or prompted other political parties to clarify and/or strengthen their positions on issues like Europe and immigration. Populist leadership While populist parties traditionally centre on a strong personality, there is an apparent evolution from ‘straight-talking’ right-wing politicians towards anti-establishment celebrities. Italy’s M5S relies on founder celebrity satirist Beppe Grillo’s popularity and social media following; and The River and Bulgaria Without Censorship were formed in 2014 by popular television journalists. iii

The Rise of ‘Outsider’ Parties in the 2014 EU Elections

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The Rise of ‘Outsider’ Parties in the 2014 EU Elections

Contents Page No. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................. 3 METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................................ 4 BACKGROUND ..................................................................................................................... 7 PROFILES Freedom Party of Austria................................................................................................. 9 Bulgaria Without Censorship......................................................................................... 12 Croatian Labourists – Labour Party .............................................................................. 13 Progressive Party of Working People ............................................................................. 17 ANO 2011...................................................................................................................... 20 Czech Communist Party ................................................................................................ 22 Danish People’s Party..................................................................................................... 24 Finns Party...................................................................................................................... 28 National Front ................................................................................................................ 31 Golden Dawn ................................................................................................................. 34 Coalition of the Radical Left ......................................................................................... 38 The River ....................................................................................................................... 40 The Movement for a Better Hungary............................................................................ 42 Sinn Féin ........................................................................................................................ 46 Five Star Movement....................................................................................................... 49 Harmony Centre............................................................................................................ 53 Union of Greens and Farmers....................................................................................... 55 Order and Justice Party.................................................................................................. 58 Party for Freedom........................................................................................................... 61 Socialist Party ................................................................................................................. 66 Democratic Unitarian Coalition .................................................................................... 69 United Left ..................................................................................................................... 71 Left Party ........................................................................................................................ 73 Sweden Democrats......................................................................................................... 75 UK Independence Party ................................................................................................ 77 ANALYSIS Key Findings................................................................................................................... 81 Key Trends ..................................................................................................................... 84 CONCLUSION..................................................................................................................... 93 1

The Rise of ‘Outsider’ Parties in the 2014 EU Elections

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The Rise of ‘Outsider’ Parties in the 2014 EU Elections

Introduction In the wake of the Eurozone crisis the rise across Europe of populist parties from both ends of the political spectrum has increased concerns over the future viability of the European project. Deemed ‘outsider’ parties by many, in some countries the traditional fringe has been able to force its way into the political mainstream over the past decade, while in others those trading on their radical nature are poised to deliver a shock to the established political classes. This briefing seeks to examine these parties, asking who they are and what they stand for. To do this, 25 ‘outsider’ parties from 19 EU member states have been identified as polling favourably in the upcoming European elections and belonging to the fringe left-wing GUE-NGL, right-wing EFD, and non-aligned NI blocs within the European Parliament. Together the profiles highlight a number of shared policy issues including: the prevalence of Euroscepticism; anti-austerity rhetoric; and anti-corruption platforms among the parties predicted success. They also demonstrate why these parties have traditionally been seen as fringe options, and detail numerous controversies ranging from racism and religious hatred to corruption which have plagued their campaigns. However, in many cases the profiles also show that these parties have been able to retain significant support despite these controversies, often utilising popular and charismatic leadership, and promises of a ‘new politics’, combined with skilled social media operations.

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The Rise of ‘Outsider’ Parties in the 2014 EU Elections

Methodology The Rise of ‘Outsider’ Parties in the 2014 EU Elections investigates the phenomenon of ‘outsider’ politics, through the lens of the forthcoming European elections, profiling popular ‘outsider’ parties across Europe and analysing trends among these challengers to traditional politics.

‘Outsider’ status Acknowledging that there are no universally accepted definitions for what constitutes an ‘outsider’ party, the authors have chosen to include parties which self-identify with either the furthest left or the furthest right political groups in the European Parliament: the Confederal Group of the European United Left/Nordic Green Left (GUE-NGL) and the Europe of Freedom & Democracy group (EFD), respectively. The authors have also included non-aligned parties (Non-Inscrits, or NI).6 Collectively, these three blocs are predicted to acquire 22% of the available seats, up from 13% in the 2009 elections.7

Defining ‘outsider’ politics The term ‘outsider’ politics is most commonly used to describe: political parties without parliamentary representation;1 those whose ideology, rhetoric, and policies place them on the edges of the political spectrum but who nevertheless command popular support;2 those which, despite a high vote share, do not enter governing coalitions either of their own volition or that of other (often, more established) parties;3 or anti-establishment newcomers to the political system.4 Furthermore, the term has also been used in connection with Eurosceptic right-wing parties, prompting concerns about the rise of populist extremism and the far-right in Europe.5

Popularity Additionally, the parties must have polled favourably in the most recent national opinion polls, by being predicted either 10% (or more) of the national vote or to rank in the top three most successful parties/coalitions. The authors have used data collected by PollWatch2014, a project which provides regular predictions on the outcome of the 2014 European Parliament elections, powered by VoteWatch Europe and Burson-Marsteller/Europe Decides.8 Given the varying frequency with which national opinion polls are conducted, the authors used the most recent polling data (as of 1 April 2014) available for each country.9

Criteria for inclusion To be included in this report, parties must be a) considered ‘outsider’ and, b) polling favourably. 1 The United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), for example, is described as an “outsider” party because, despite representation at European and local level, it does not have any representatives in the national legislature; see: ‘The rise and rise of the outsider election: What will the 2014 European election mean for British politics?’, British Future, 1 April 2014, p. 9, available at: www.britishfuture.org/publication/the-rise-and-rise-of-the-outsider-election/. Last visited: 12 May 2014. 2 McDonnell, D. & James Newell, ‘Outsider Parties’, Special issue of Party Politics, 17 April 2011, available at: http://cadmus.eui.eu/handle/1814/20506. Last visited: 12 May 2014. 3 See, for example: McDonnell, D., ‘Outsider parties in government in Western Europe’, Party Politics, July 2011, vol. 17, no. 4, p.443-452. Last visited: 12 May 2014. 4 Italy’s Five Star Movement, for example, is an anti-establishment movement founded in 2009, by a comedian-turned-activist, which went from