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The Psychology of the Foreign Exchange Market. Wiley Trading Description:
This book offers a fascinating understanding of the decisions that determine exchange rates. It sheds light on the psychology behind spectacular market phenomena as well as on subliminal processes in daily trading decisions. In an understandable and engaging analysis of his research with many of the world s leading market participants, Thomas Oberlechner draws on the first–hand expertise of the professionals whose decisions shape the market. Expanding the field of behavioral finance, The Psychology of the Foreign Exchange Market incorporates new insights from a variety of psychological perspectives – ranging from social market dynamics; the role of affects and intuition in trading decisions; cognitive biases of traders; psychological risk–taking phenomena; subjective attitudes in market expectations; the interdependent relationship between trading institutions and the financial news media; the dynamics of market rumors, and personality characteristics of successful traders; to the role of metaphors in the decisions of participants and the nature of the market. "Economists propose elegant theories and sophisticated models to explain exchange rates, but to no avail. Traders, however, enjoy uncommon success in these markets. The difference is psychology. Economists deny it. Traders exploit it. And Thomas Oberlechner explains it very skilfully. Whether you want to be a better economist or a better trader, read this outstanding book!" Mark Kritzman, Windham Capital Management Boston, LLC "Finally, a book that helps us to understand the dynamics of the largest market in the world. As petrodollars and financial trade foreign exchange transactions gave way to pure trading for profit and speculation, it was often difficult to ascertain the dynamics of trading. Thomas Oberlechner has provided an excellent understanding in this book." Marshall N. Carter, Chairman/CEO (retired), State Street Bank and Trust Co., Boston "Financial markets, with their interaction of economic and psychological mechanisms, increasingly attract researchers and practitioners interests. Thomas Oberlechner brilliantly examines financial markets by taking a psychological perspective. This splendid book impresses by its detailed research and provides a thorough understanding of the complex yet attractive mechanisms of financial markets." Professor Erich Kirchler, Institute for Psychology, University of Vienna "Thomas Oberlechner has pulled together an astonishing array of first–rate research on how financial markets are shaped and shifted through all–too–human interaction and decision. Moreover, he has contributed a good deal of highly original research into the workings of the foreign exchange market and on the people who build and sustain this market. The Psychology of the Foreign Exchange Market summarizes in a most readable way what we know about the people – traders, analysts and journalists – who make markets and whose everyday decision making has, to say the least, far ranging social consequences. A must read for anyone who wonders about the seemingly unfathomable mysteries of exchange rates and the making of markets." John Van Maanen, Erwin Schell Professor of Organization Studies, MIT
Preface. Acknowledgments. Introduction. 1 From Rational Decision–Makers to a Psychology of the Foreign Exchange Market. Traditional vs. behavioral finance: A paradigmatic shift in approaching financial markets. Economic defense of the efficient market view.
views of rationality in the foreign exchange market.
Toward a market psychology. Abbreviated references. 2 Psychology of Trading Decisions. Trading decisions: The view of traders. Excursion: Understanding decision–making in financial markets. From objective prices to psychological theories of decision–making. Normative economic and descriptive psychological approaches. Social herding dynamics. Herding and psychological conformity. Herding dynamics in the foreign exchange market. Affects. Status quo tendency. Overconfidence. Trading intuition: Bridging affects and cognitions. Cognitions. Heuristics. Representativeness. Availability. Anchoring and adjustment. Hindsight bias. Abbreviated references. 3. Risk–Taking in Trading Decisions. Asymmetric risk–taking. Framing and mental accounting. Managing trading risk: Institutional and personal strategies. Abbreviated references. 4 Expectations in the Foreign Exchange Market. Expectations: A market time machine. Fundamental and technical/chartist analysis. Psychological attitudes and market expectations. Social dynamics, meta–expectations, and the financial news Media.
Abbreviated references. 5 News and Rumors. Characteristics of important information. From news sources to information loops. Information sources of foreign exchange traders. Information sources of financial journalists. Implications for collective market information–processing. Reporting trends and interdependency. Market rumors. Abbreviated references. 6 Personality Psychology of Traders. The role of personality in trading. What makes successful traders? Disciplined cooperation. Tackling decisions. Market meaning–making. Emotional stability. Information–processing. Interested integrity. Autonomous organization. Information handling. Market applications. Abbreviated references. 7 Surfing the Market on Metaphors. Main market metaphors. The foreign exchange market as a bazaar. The foreign exchange market as a machine. The foreign exchange market as a living being. The foreign exchange market as gambling. The foreign exchange market as sports. The foreign exchange market as war.
The foreign exchange market as an ocean. Metaphors shape market perspectives. Market metaphors are about the psychological
Market metaphors are about market predictability. Explicit and implicit metaphors of the foreign exchange market. Market metaphors in action. What we can learn from market metaphors. Abbreviated references. 8 The Foreign Exchange Market A Psychological Construct. The market as a construct and illusion. Market constructs change. Abbreviated references. 9 The Basics. Function and scope of the market. Instruments. Trading. Dealing room structure. Market players. Commercial and investment banks. Central banks. Brokers. Investment companies, pension funds, and hedge funds. Corporations and multinational companies. Individuals. Global financial news agencies. Abbreviated references. Appendix: The European and the North American Survey. Abbreviated references. References. Index.
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