The Nigerian Banking Sector Data Fact-File - 111209

The Nigerian Banking Sector Data Fact-File Long ago, Sir Isaac Newton gave us three laws of motion, which were the work of genius. But Sir Isaac's talents didn't extend to investing: He lost a bundle in the South Sea Bubble - explaining later, 'I can calculate the movement of the stars, but not the madness of men.' If he had not been traumatized by this loss, Sir Isaac might well have gone on to discover the Fourth Law of Motion: For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases. – Warren Buffet in his 2005 Chairman’s letter to shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway

Recent Developments and Trends in the Banking Sector: Guaranty Trust Bank Plc emerges the highest priced stock in the banking sector, beats First Bank Plc which had maintained the lead since the beginning of the year to the second seat. Oceanic Bank International Plc had the highest loan loss provision of N315.115 billion with resultant consequence of net loss, and heading towards its nominal value. Banks that assume new year lows: The table below shows banks that assumed new year-lows after the close of trading today. We may most likely record more if this bearish trend persists. Banks

Intercontinental Bank Plc Oceanic Bank Plc Union Bank Plc

Year Low Before

N1.89 N1.86 N5.38

Year Low Today

N1.81 N1.77 N5.17

Banks that have recorded price appreciation above their prices as at first trading day of the year: The table below shows banks that have appreciated above their trading prices as at the first trading day in the year i.e. 2nd January, 2009. FCMB Plc posts the highest gain of 21.95%, followed by GT Bank Plc with 15.69% price appreciation. Banks Access Bank Plc Diamond Bank Plc FCMB Plc Guaranty Trust Bank Plc

% of Appreciation 4.38% 3.67% 21.95% 15.69%

Top Ten year to date depreciation in the Banking Sector. The below is an analysis of top ten price depreciation in the banking sector in the year. Banks

% Depreciation

Wema Bank Plc

93.49%

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The Nigerian Banking Sector Data Fact-File - 111209

Intercontinental Bank Plc

86.55%

Firstinland Bank Plc

85.45%

Oceanic Bank Plc

85.27%

Platinum Habib Bank Plc

83.78%

Afribank Plc

80.18%

Spring Bank Plc

79.96%

Unity Bank Plc

70.33%

Union Bank Plc

66.65%

Ecobank Plc

55.76%

Banking Sector Trend Analysis: Post August 14 Banking Stocks Trend: Price as at 140809

ACCESS

Price as at 111209

% Change

6.34

7.53

18.77

13.24

15.13

14.27

6.8

7.47

9.85

SKYEBANK

5.23

5.7

8.99

DIAMONDBNK

6.91

7.32

5.93

13.04

13.4

2.76

GUARANTY FCMB

ZENITHBANK FIDELITYBK

2.4

2.35

-2.08

FIRSTBANK

14.9

14.05

-5.70

STERLNBANK

1.39

1.18

-15.11

12.38

10.5

-15.19

IBTC

8.73

7.25

-16.95

UNITYBNK

1.29

0.85

-34.11

27.96

11.76

-57.94

FIRSTINLND

1.55

0.61

-60.65

UBN

12.6

4.92

-60.95

WEMABANK

2.44

0.89

-63.52

OCEANIC

4.94

1.69

-65.79

AFRIBANK

5.22

1.72

-67.05

PLATINUM

4.95

1.54

-68.89

INTERCONT

6.93

1.72

-75.18

SPRINGBANK

5.59

1.07

-80.86

UBA

ECOBANK

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The Nigerian Banking Sector Data Fact-File - 111209

The table above shows how banking stocks have fared since the inception of the ongoing CBN shakeup in the sector. Access Bank Plc, Diamond Bank Plc, FCMB, Guaranty Trust Bank Plc, Skye Bank Plc, and Zenith Bank Plc all in the cleared bank category recorded appreciation within the period. Few in the cleared category such as First Bank Plc, Ecobank Plc, Fidelity Bank Plc, IBTC, Sterling Bank Plc, UBA Plc lost as well but not in the magnitude of the banks on the other side. The most hit of the decline are banks that are considered weak.

Stock Trend since the assumption of office of the current CBN Governor: Price as at 040609

ACCESS AFRIBANK DIAMONDBNK ECOBANK

Price as at 111209

%Change

9.31

7.53

-19.12

9

1.72

-80.89

9.43

7.32

-22.38

27.96

11.76

-57.94

FCMB

8.49

7.47

-12.01

FIDELITYBK

4.83

2.35

-51.35

FIRSTBANK

21.65

14.05

-35.10

3.55

0.61

-82.82

13.18

15.13

14.80

8.98

7.25

-19.27

FIRSTINLND GUARANTY IBTC INTERCONT

12.19

1.72

-85.89

OCEANIC

9.92

1.69

-82.96

PLATINUM

9.79

1.54

-84.27

SKYEBANK

7.15

5.7

-20.28

SPRINGBANK

5.59

1.07

-80.86

STERLNBANK

2.64

1.18

-55.30

UBA

15.8

10.5

-33.54

UBN

17.1

4.92

-71.23

UNITYBNK

2.81

0.85

-69.75

WEMABANK

4.08

0.89

-78.19

ZENITHBANK

26.2

13.4

-48.85

With the exception of Guaranty Trust Bank Plc which records 14.80% price appreciation, all other stocks have shed weights in various degrees since the assumption of office by the current CBN Governor in June 4th, 2009 with Intercontinental Bank Plc losing the highest of 85.15%. Both certified strong banks and certified weak ones have not remained the same to date. No inference can be made or attributable to the CBN Governor, given the general market conditions on ground.

Current Price and Nominal Value Margin Compared:

Banks

Nominal Price

Price as at 111209

% diff

ACCESS

0.5

7.53

1406

AFRIBANK

0.5

1.72

244

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The Nigerian Banking Sector Data Fact-File - 111209

DIAMONDBNK

0.5

7.32

1364

ECOBANK

0.5

11.76

2252

FCMB

0.5

7.47

1394

FIDELITYBK

0.5

2.35

370

FIRSTBANK

0.5

14.05

2710

FIRSTINLND

0.5

0.61

22

GUARANTY

0.5

15.13

2926

IBTC

0.5

7.25

1350

INTERCONT

0.5

1.72

244

OCEANIC

0.5

1.69

238

PLATINUM

0.5

1.54

208

SKYEBANK

0.5

5.7

1040

SPRINGBANK

0.5

1.07

114

STERLNBANK

0.5

1.18

136

UBA

0.5

10.5

2000

UBN

0.5

4.92

884

UNITYBNK

0.5

0.85

70

WEMABANK

0.5

0.89

78

ZENITHBANK

0.5

13.4

2580

From the table above, it shows that almost all the banks bailed out by the CBN are heading towards their nominal value with the exception of Union Bank Plc which still records a relatively wide gap to its nominal value. With the results posted by the bank today, it has its work cut out to prevent a decline.

Current and Previous Years’ High and Low Compared 2009 Year's COMPANY ACCESS AFRIBANK DIAMONDBNK ECOBANK FCMB FIDELITYBK FIRSTBANK FIRSTINLND GUARANTY IBTC INTERCONT

High

Low

2008 Year's % High Diff

%Low Diff

High

Low

10.85

3.54

-57.45

-36.79

25.50

5.60

10.06

1.53

-67.85

-84.03

31.29

9.58

10.44

3.95

-55.48

-34.17

23.45

6.00

27.96

11.76

160.09

154.55

10.75

4.62

8.99

3.38

-58.38

-32.40

21.60

5.00

4.89

1.68

-62.38

-56.92

13.00

3.90

24.86

12.70

-54.68

-26.67

54.86

17.32

4.45

0.61

-66.54

-85.30

13.30

4.15

17.05

8.25

-57.38

-21.58

40.00

10.52

10.9

4.27

-52.61

-40.86

23

7.22

13.65

1.72

-70.33

-80.28

46.00

8.72

12.05

1.69

-69.14

-81.39

39.05

9.08

10.24

1.47

-69.43

-79.67

33.50

7.23

8.59

3.44

-56.73

-44.78

19.85

6.23

5.59

0.98

0.00

-76.72

5.59

4.21

OCEANIC PLATINUM SKYEBANK SPRINGBANK

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The Nigerian Banking Sector Data Fact-File - 111209

STERLNBANK UBA UBN UNITYBNK WEMABANK ZENITHBANK

2.91

1.06

-64.81

-49.52

8.27

2.10

17.50

6.67

-72.63

-39.36

63.94

11.00

21.12

4.92

-53.16

-64.40

45.09

13.82

3.10

0.85

-68.84

-58.74

9.95

2.06

14.29

0.89

-4.73

-93.77

15.00

14.29

29.00

10.11

-43.30

-41.05

51.15

17.15

The table above shows that all the stocks are still trading below their 2008 high and low prices.

Price to Book Value Status of Banks Compared Price to Book COMPANY

Status

Ratio

ACCESS

Cleared

0.70

DIAMONDBNK

Cleared

0.95

ECOBANK

Cleared

1.20

FCMB

Cleared

0.95

FIDELITYBK

Cleared

0.52

FIRSTBANK

Cleared

2.29

GUARANTY

Cleared

1.64

IBTC

Cleared

1.78

SKYEBANK

Cleared

0.76

STERLNBANK

Cleared

0.50

UBA

Cleared

1.17

ZENITHBANK

Cleared

1.01

UNITYBNK

Given Life line till June ‘10

0.41

WEMABANK

Given Life line till June ‘10

0.18

AFRIBANK

Uncleared

0.58

FIRSTINLND

Uncleared

-0.12

INTERCONT

Uncleared

-0.13

OCEANIC

Uncleared

-0.60

PLATINUM

Uncleared

-0.19

SPRINGBANK

Uncleared

-0.15

UBN

Uncleared

-0.45

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