The Mitigation of Air Pollution and Greenhouse Gases (MAG) Program Fabian Wagner 7 June 2013

Motivation: Air pollutants and GHGs cause serious problems: for health, ecosystems, economy

Sources of air pollutants and GHGs are diverse: Emissions stem from all economic sectors

Atmospheric transport: linking emissions and impacts  Pollutants have short residence time in the atmosphere  GHGs are well mixed, aerosols are not

Mitigation/Emission control technologies Policies

Costs

Challenge for policy makers: To identify strategies at the local, regional, and global levels that protect the atmosphere while imposing the least burden on economic development

Objective of MAG research activities To provide scientific tools for short- to long-term policy development by decision makers in the developed and developing worlds.

Methodology Assessing air quality: The GAINS model • Multi-pollutant, multi-effect integrated assessment model gas – Air pollution INteractions and Synergies • AccessibleGreenhouse online: gains.iiasa.ac.at concentrations Dispersion, atmospheric chemistry

Impact indicators impacts Cost optimization

emissions Emission factors

Mitigation strategies

Control technologies activities 7

Linking Air pollution control || GHG mitigation: Co-benefits The traditional view on air pollution and greenhouse gases Air pollution GHGs

Local/short-term

Global/long-term

Linking Air pollution control || GHG mitigation: Co-benefits

Global/long-term GHG

SOLUTION Local/short-term

Air pollution

Local/short-term

Global/long-term

PROBLEM

Policy applications of GAINS GAINS has been the key scientific tool in • developing international environmental agreements, e.g. • UN-ECE LRTAP • Emissions ceilings directive • International assessments • UNEP • IPCC • AMAP GAINS is a IIASA showcase product

MAG-YSSP 2013 Pollutants short-lived climate forcers

Region China

Sector all

Ville-Veikko Paunu

NOx, particles, VOC, etc

Global

Agriculture (field burning)

Sasha Yin

Ammonia (NH3)

Pearl-River Delta (China)

Agriculture

Bo Zheng

SO2, NOx, particles, VOC

China

Road Transport

Nicholas Lam (with ENE)

black carbon, Developing countries: particles, South-East Asia VOC, etc Sub-saharan Africa

Kandice Harper

Households

Regional assessment of short-lived climate forcer (SLCF) mitigation measures Kandice Harper Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies MAG Program Supervisors Chris Heyes Fabian Wagner Gregor Kiesewetter

Atmospheric Chemistry

Photo: Yale Environment 360

Environmental Policy

Climate Science

(1) Update baseline emission scenario for China

Existing baseline emission scenario China’s 12th 5-year plan

GAINS database

Updated baseline emission scenario

(2) Assess regional importance of UNEP-identified SLCF mitigation measures in China

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Emission scenario incorporating mostpromising emission reduction measures for China

(3) Determine regional climate response associated with SLCF mitigation measures in China Emission projections from steps (1) & (2)

Regional climate response (temperature, precipitation)

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NASA’s global climate model (GISS ModelE2)

Validation of GAINS climate indicators

Spatial Modelling of Global Agricultural Field Burning Emissions

Ville-Veikko Paunu YSSP Introduction 7.6.2013

About Me ● Master of science (Tech.), Aalto University, major energy sciences ● 1st year PhD student in geoinformatics, Aalto University ● Working in Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE) ○ Air pollution modelling ○ Specialized in residential wood combustion and spatial modelling

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YSSP Work ● Agricultural field burning emissions ● Done to clear excess residue, control pests and produce ash fertilization ● Significant source of aerosols and trace gases to the atmosphere ● Banned in several countries ○ However, it is still practised

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YSSP Work ● Aim: global AWB emission model ● Both emission calculation and spatial allocation are developed ● Resolution: one month, 0.5° x 0.5° ● Combine various data ○ Crop data (type, amount, location, emission factor, time of cropping) ○ Fire activity data ○ Land use data ● Possibly include future changes in the land use etc. GAINS BC emissions in 2005 for AWB

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Modeling ammonia emission control potentials and costs in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region, China, using an integrated approach Shasha Yin IIASA-YSSP, Vienna June 7, 2013

IIASA-YSSP, Mitigation of Air Pollution and Greenhouse Gases Program (MAG) NSFC-National Natural Science Foundation of China

Introduction of Myself Name: Shasha Yin Birth: Henan Province, China From: South China University of Technology, Guangzhou PhD. Student, Second year Program: Mitigation of Air Pollution and Greenhouse Gases-MAG Supervisor: Wilfried Winiwarter & Zbigniew Klimont Research Field: Regional air pollutant emission inventory Temporal and spatial characteristic Emission control potentials

Introduction of Myself

Page: 2

PhD Work in China  Focus on regional atmospheric haze(PM2.5) pollution Haze and health cost

 Research of PhD. Thesis--Basic framework and targets - Develop multi-pollutant emissions - Identify the temporal and spatial emission characteristic - …… - Propose future emission scenarios - Assess the emission control potentials - …… PhD Work in China

1. Emission

3. Control Scenario

- Collect historical activity data 2. Projection - Project emission inventory -Understand emission trend - ……

4. Air Quality

- Modeling future regional air quality - Assess impacts of different emission changes - …… Page: 3

Plans in IIASA-YSSP (Motivations) Title: Modeling ammonia emission control potentials and costs in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region, China, using an integrated approach

The PRD region Regional aerosol pollution- PM

Ammonia? • Alkaline gas • React with SO2, NOx • Precursor compound

Strict measures on reducing SO2 and NOX

of PM2.5 Few studies on ammonia!

Plans in IIASA-YSSP -1

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Plans in IIASA-YSSP (Objectives) 1. Ammonia emission sources: Agricultural source

Non-agricultural source

Livestock N Fertilizer Application

2. Specific tasks – Gains Model:  Improving and updating PRD regional high-resolution NH3 emission inventory  Identifying NH3 control measures and potentials with a focus on agriculture sources  Assessing emission control costs of proposed abatement measures Plans in IIASA-YSSP -2

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Projection of Chinese Vehicle Growth, Energy Demand and Emissions Through 2030 Bo Zheng MAG program 06.07.2013

Severe air pollution in China Annual average, 2012 NO2 over 40 μg m-3 in many cities

China yearly standard is 40 µg/m3

Jan, 2013, North China Plain PM2.5 up to 300 μg m-3

China daily standard is 75 µg/m3

• How much does road vehicle affect air quality, for now and future? • What’s the effect from mitigation measures on vehicle emission reduction?

Onroad transport is a major source in urban area • Share of onroad vehicle emissions: 20% NOx, 16% VOC and 14% CO (1990 - 2010).

Third driving force for NOx emission

Higher share in urban area, declining slightly From MEIC database developed by Tsinghua Univ.

Future emission trend in previous work: national level • Based on national average parameters. • Helpful for analysis and management at national level but not for regional level. NOx emission trend in GAINS model

NOx emission trend by Zhang et al, 2013

My proposed work: projection at finer resolution • CO2, fuel demand and air pollutants • Region division based on energy mixture structure • Benefit policy makers to adjust measures to local conditions

Six interprovincial power grids in 2008 Huo et al., 2010

Emission factors and vehicle growth rate at national average From MEIC database