The India Energy and Greenhouse Gas Model: Model Overview and Results Peter H. Kobos Staff Economist, Sandia National Laboratories Thomas E. Drennen Senior Economist, Sandia National Laboratories Associate Professor of Economics, Hobart and William Smith Colleges

The 24th Annual North American Conference of the USAEE/IAEE July 8 – 10, 2004, Capital Hilton Hotel, Washington, D.C. 6010 PHK 07-10-2004

Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC04-94AL85000

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India’s Energy Challenges • Expanding population • Increasing demand for total primary energy • The current and projected fuel supply mix may lead to: – Deteriorating local air quality – Increasing global carbon emissions • Fuel imports may increase 2 6010 PHK 07-10-2004

Total Primary Energy Demand in India 25

Quads

20

Biomass Hydroelectricity Nuclear Natural Gas Oil Coal

15 10 5 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Source: International Energy Agency, 2002.

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Electricity Generation Mix in India 6 5

Quads

4

Hydroelectricity Nuclear Natural Gas Oil Coal

3 2 1 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Source: International Energy Agency, 2002.

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The India Energy and Greenhouse Gas Model

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The India Energy and Greenhouse Gas Model GDP

Energy Intensity Fuel Source by Economic Sector

Demand for Primary Energy by Economic Sector Total Demand for Primary Energy by Fuel Total Electricity

Electricity Share

Electricity by Fuel Type

Total Demand for Primary Energy

Population Carbon Content Domestic Production Domestic Fossil Fuel Production 6010 PHK 07-10-2004

Carbon Emissions

Fuel Imports 6

Model Input (1990 – 2020) • GDP growth scenarios • Energy consumption by fuel type – Coal, oil, natural gas, nuclear, hydroelectric, other renewables, combustible renewables – Derived and user defined scenarios

• Electricity consumption share by fuel type – Coal, oil, natural gas, nuclear, hydroelectric, other renewables – Derived and user defined scenarios

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Model Outputs (1990 – 2020) • Gross Domestic Product • Population • Energy consumption share by fuel type – Coal, oil, natural gas, nuclear, hydroelectric, other renewables, combustible renewables

• Electricity consumption by fuel type – Coal, oil, natural gas, nuclear, hydroelectric, other renewables

• Carbon emissions (total and per capita) • Implied fuel import requirements 8 6010 PHK 07-10-2004

Base Case Results: Primary Energy 12 10 Coal Oil Natural Gas Nuclear Hydroelectricity Other Renewables Biomass

Quads

8 6 4 2 0 1990

2000

2010

2020

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Base Case Results: Electricity by Fuel Type 8 7 6

Coal Oil Natural Gas Nuclear Hydroelectricity Other Renewables Biomass

Quads

5 4 3 2 1 0 1990

2000

2010

2020

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GDP Growth Scenarios: Primary Energy 40 35 30 Low Growth (3%)

Quads

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Medium Growth (4.6%, Base Case) High Growth (7%)

20 15 10 5 0 1990

2000

2010

2020

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Primary Energy: Biomass • There is still a strong reliance on biomass in the residential sector (76% of residential energy demand in year 2000 was biomass). • A biomass reduction scenario considers the gradual shift from this heavy reliance on biomass to electricity. – Biomass share decreases in the residential sector from 76% to 50% – Electricity share increases from 12% to 38%

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Biomass Reduction Scenario, 2020 The substitution increased projected carbon emissions by 34 million metric tons carbon (MtC) (8%) in 2020. 14 12

Quads

10

Base Case

8 6

Biomass Reduction Scenario

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Electricity Electricity Development Scenarios – Aggressive Nuclear Technology (ANT) » Doubles 2020 nuclear capacity, 6 to 12 GW

Electricity by fuel in 2000 Hydroelectric Nuclear 4% 3%

Other Renewables