The Impact of ‘Abenomics’ on Shipping Marine Money Japan Ship Finance Forum Capt. Herbert Soanes
Misuga Holland Ship owners and Ship managers 12 May ...
The Impact of ‘Abenomics’ on Shipping Marine Money Japan Ship Finance Forum Capt. Herbert Soanes
Misuga Holland Ship owners and Ship managers 12 May 2016
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For Some – The Verdict on Abenomics is Clear
Source: China Daily / Global Times / Hedge Eye
Others – It’s Stormy, but the Jury is Still Out
Source: odb.org
Yet Others – The Abenomic Arrows will get there
Data Source: China Daily / Global Times / Hedge Eye
Big Mac Index
Data Source: NY Times, RightWayChart / Economist.com
Shiseido Economic Index
Shiseido's Lacquer Rouge 413
Popular in boom times 19 May, Thursday
Source: Shiseido
Bursting of the Bubble
Data Source: NY Times, RightWayChart
Yen Exchange Rate
Source: Wsj Market Data Group
Yen Floats
Apparently, the only coinage in the developed world that floats on water Source: Youtube.com
Yen Exchange Rate
Source: Clarksons
Japanese Exports – Impact of the Weaker Yen
The 1985 Plaza Accord
Source: Wsj / St. Louis Fed
Japanese Built Tonnage
Source: ShippingWatch / Tradewinds
Shipyards – Contracting in Recent Years
2015 Contracting of Newbuildings Chinese Yards: 389 vessels Down 26% from 2014 Down 52% from 2013 Japanese Yards: 424 vessels
Raw Data Source: Japan Ship Exporters Association / Bloomberg
Shipyards – Contracting in Recent Years
Japanese Yards Orderbook in 2015 1 Jan: 674 vessels 31 Dec: 807 vessels
Up nearly 20%
This is despite Japanese yards diversifying to other vessel types The percentage of Bulk carriers in the Orderbook: @ end 2013: ~73% @ end 2015: ~53% Raw Data Source: Japan Ship Exporters Association
Shipyard Profitability
Source: Tradewinds / Shipbuild.exblog.jp
Shipbuilding – Government Support
Japanese yards have benefitted from government backed lending by the Japan Bank for International Cooperation Source: Tradewinds
Financial Environment
Source: Bloomberg, May 3, 2016 / ShippingWatch / Wsj.com
Financial Environment – Mergers & Acquistions
In 2015, Japanese companies notched over ¥10 trillion ($97 billion) in outbound bound deal-making for the first time.
Shiseido's Maquillage Dual Color Rouge 10 Currently Popular!
Source: Shiseido
Shiseido Economic Index
Shiseido's Lacquer Rouge 413
Popular in boom times 19 May, Thursday
Source: Shiseido
Shiseido Economic Index
Shiseido's Maquillage Dual Color Rouge 10 Currently Popular!
Source: Shiseido
Outlook for the Yen
Source: WSJ.com
In Conclusion
So it will be fair to say…. Promising in theory and mathematics The jury is still out on Abenomics QE and other monetary acrobatics The start was encouraging It sent the Yen down spiraling And corporate profits began flourishing
In Conclusion
However the sales tax hike was received with bad blood Consumer confidence fell with a thud Any optimism on inflation was a dud
Chinese slowdown was not meant to be on the scorecard Structural reforms were blocked by the old guard Fiscal spending could yet be the trump card
In Conclusion
Yet with Abenomics….
Shipyards are growing ship by ship Exports continue to click Equipment suppliers are trimming their wick Investment bankers see deals coming in double quick Ship-owners have learnt the financial trick So surely for maritime…. ….it’s time for the sassy red Shiseido lipstick!
