The IEA Technology Roadmap: Concentrating Solar Power 4th CSP Summit USA, San Francisco, 24 June 2010 Cédric PHILIBERT Renewable Energy Division International Energy Agency © OECD/IEA 2010

Outline  The need for an energy revolution  The IEA Technology Roadmaps  The PV and CSP Roadmaps  The dynamics of PV  Insights on the CSP roadmap  Technologies  Cost evolution and market growth  Importance of DNI  Global Map 2050  The role of storage  Selected policy recommendations © OECD/IEA 2010

Mtoe

World primary energy demand in the Reference Scenario

18 000

Other renewables

16 000

Biomass

14 000

Hydro

12 000

Nuclear

10 000 8 000

Gas

6 000

Oil

4 000

Coal

2 000 0 1980

WEO-2008 total 1990

2000

2010

2020

2030 Source: World Energy Outlook 2009

Global energy demand grows by average 1.5% p.a. to 2030; 22% more oil, 42% more gas, 53% more coal than today 3

© OECD/IEA 2010

Coal‐fired power‐generation capacity under construction by country China India Non-OECD

112

51

12

United States Europe Other

19

OECD

0

17

30

5

60

90

120

150

180 GW

The bulk of coal‐fired capacity currently being built is in non‐OECD countries  – more than half of the world total in China alone  © OECD/IEA 2010

Gt

Energy‐related CO2 emissions by fuel and region  in the Reference Scenario 45 40

International marine & aviation bunkers

35

Non-OECD gas

30

Non-OECD oil

25

Non-OECD coal

20

OECD gas

15 OECD oil 10 OECD coal

5 0 1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

Close to 60% of the projected increase in emissions between 2007 & 2030 comes from coal burning in non‐OECD countries © OECD/IEA 2010

A sustainable energy future: the ‘450 Scenario’ 42

Abatement by technology, 2030 By region World

40 38

Efficiency – 45%

Reference Scenario

OECD+

36

Renewables & biofuels – 21% Nuclear– 13% CCS – 20%

Efficiency – 57%

34 13.8 Gt 3.8 Gt

32

Other Major Economies

30

Other Countries

28 450 Scenario 26 2007

2015

2020

2025

2030

Efficiency – 67% Renewables & biofuels – 19% Nuclear – 8% CCS – 6% Efficiency – 55% Renewables & biofuels – 34% Nuclear– 9%

Renewables & biofuels – 23%

Nuclear– 10% CCS – 10%

Source: Early excerpt of WEO 2009 for Bangkok UNFCCC meeting

Efficiency measures account for 2/3 of the 3.8Gt abatement in 2020. Renewables contribute 20%. Source: World Energy Outlook, IEA 2009 © OECD/IEA 2010

PWh

By 2050, an energy revolution Other

50

Solar

45 40

Wind

35

Biomass and waste + CCS

30

Biomass and waste

25

Hydro

20

Nuclear

15

Natural gas + CCS

10

Natural gas

5

Oil

0 2007

Baseline 2050

BLUE Map  2050

BLUE High  Ren  2050

Coal + CCS Coal

In the BLUE Map scenario, renewables represents 50% of global electricity production by 2050, 75% in the High Renewables case © OECD/IEA 2010

How do we get there from here? The role of energy technology roadmaps

© OECD/IEA 2009

 Based on scenario to halve CO2 emissions by

2050  Identify technical, policy, legal, financial, and public acceptance milestones and priority nearterm actions  Create a process for stakeholder collaboration  Identify partners for implementation  Roadmaps developed: CCS, electric vehicles, wind, cement sector, solar PV and solar CSP, nuclear power  Roadmaps for 2010: smart grids, biofuels, EE buildings, others to follow © OECD/IEA 2010

PV & CSP technology roadmaps • Launched by IEA’s Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka in 

Valencia, 11 May 2010 (MSP Conf.) • PV and CSP complementary to each other • Solar electricity could represent up to 20% to 25% of global  electricity production by 2050 • Roughly half CSP, half PV • Producing up to 9000 TWh per year • Saving almost 6 billion tonnes CO2 per year

• This decade crucial for effective policies to enable the 

development of solar electricity • Need to plan and invest in grid infrastructure • Smart grids for PV, HVDC transmission lines for CSP © OECD/IEA 2010

PV & CSP rodmaps (11 May 2010)  PV takes all light

 CSP takes direct light

 PV almost everywhere

 CSP semi-arid countries

 Mostly at end-users’

 Mostly for utilities

 Variable

 Firm, dispatchable

backup  Peak to base-load storage  Peak & mid-peak  Grid parity (retail prices) by 2020  Competitive peak power by 2020  HVDC lines for transport  Smart grids for integration

}{

Firm & flexible CSP capacities can help integrate more PV

© OECD/IEA 2010

PV Deployment Trends

New additions 2009 (prelim data EPIA) Country

MW

Germany

3800

Italy

730

Japan

484

US

475

Czech Rep

411

© OECD/IEA 2010

Solar PV Vision

PV can provide 5% of global electricity generation in 2030, 11% in 2050

© OECD/IEA 2010

© OECD/IEA 2010

© OECD/IEA 2010

Strengths and weaknesses Strengths and weaknesses

© OECD/IEA 2010

© OECD/IEA 2010

CSP costs and global output Competition for peak and mid‐peak loads

Competition for base load

© OECD/IEA 2010

Daily direct normal irradiance is key

© OECD/IEA 2010

How accurate are our DNI Data?

SWERA: NASA  NREL

The case of Morocco Ain Béni Mathar

Ouarzazate Boujdour

Foum Al Oued

Sabkhat Tah 

© OECD/IEA 2010

How accurate… (2)

Source: Solar Paces © OECD/IEA 2010

The best regions for CSP

Favorable for Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) Worth considering for CSP

Source: Pharabod & Philibert, 1991

The CSP Roadmap: 2050 2050: A detailed regional assessment – with some HVDC lines 

Consumption Production

© OECD/IEA 2010

Advantages of North African exports to EU  For the EU:

 For North Africa:

 Firm, dispatchable solar

 Abundant resources for local

electricity  Facilitates integrating more wind and PV  Cost competitive  Helps achieve RE targets by 2020

needs and exports  Stable revenues through exports of RE power  Revenues to finance domestic power investments

Advantages of Mexican exports to the USA

Ensuring stability and security of supply for both sides © OECD/IEA 2010

Uses of storage

Intermediate load Delayed intermediate load

© OECD/IEA 2010

Uses of storage

Base load

Extreme peak load

© OECD/IEA 2010

Concentrating solar fuels

© OECD/IEA 2010

Selected Policy Recommendations 1. Implement solar‐specific incentives 2. Markets to reward firm capacities by CSP plants 3. Avoid arbitrary limits on plant size and hybridisation 

But reward only solar electricity share from hybrid plants

4. Ensure funding with long term certainty for public and  private RD&D of CSP (up to 5 times current level) 5. Streamline permitting procedures for CSP plants and  access lines 6. Consider offering suitable land areas, access to grid or  water resources  7. Negotiate power purchase agreements between  exporting and importing countries © OECD/IEA 2010

Forthcoming IEA publications  Energy Technology Perspectives 2010

With a high Renewables scenario equal to 75% final energy mix by 2050 1 July  World Energy Outlook 2010 Full analytical section on renewable energy Deepen analysis on solar potential and transmission needs for North Africa 9 November  Additional roadmaps on renewables  Grid integration of variable renewable electricity © OECD/IEA 2010

Thank you! [email protected]

© OECD/IEA 2009 

www.iea.org/roadmaps Low-carbon energy technology roadmaps © OECD/IEA 2010