The Hungarian Labour Market 2016

The Hungarian Labour Market Editorial board of the yearbook series

Irén Busch – Head of Department, Ministry of Interior, Department of Public Works’ Statistics Analyses and Monitoring • Károly Fazekas – general director, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences (CERS HAS) • Jenő Koltay – senior research fellow, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences (CERS HAS) • János Köllő – scientific advisor, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences (CERS HAS) • Judit Lakatos – senior advisor, Hungarian Central Statistical Office (HCSO) • Ágnes Szabó-Morvai – research fellow, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies Hungarian Academy of Sciences (CERS HAS) Series editor

Károly Fazekas

THE HUNGARIAN LABOUR MARKET 2016 EDITORS ZSUZSA BLASKÓ KÁROLY FAZEKAS

institute of economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences Budapest, 2016

Edition and production: Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences. Copies of the book can be ordered from the Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences. Mailing address: H-1112 Budapest, Budaörsi út 45. Phone: (+36-1) 309 26 49 Fax: (+36-1) 319 31 36 E-mail: [email protected] Web site: http://www.krtk.mta.hu

Translated by: László Kajdi (105–109); István Kónya (150–158); Christian Moreh (69–72); Krisztina Olasz (9–32, 122–149, 169–177); Judit Tóth (159–168); Ágnes Viktória Turnpenny (33–68, 73–89, 97–104, 117–121); Júlia Varga (90–96). Revised by: Stuart Oldham The publication of this volume has been financially supported by Hungarian Academy of Sciences and the KJM Foundation. Copyright © Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, 2016 Cover photo © Yannis Behrakis/Reuters ISSN 1785-8062 Publisher: Károly Fazekas Copy editor: Anna Patkós Design, page layout: font.hu Typography: Garamond, Franklin Gothic Printing: Oliton Kft.

CONTENTS Foreword ....................................................................................................................... 9 The Hungarian labour market in 2015 (Tamás Bakó & Judit Lakatos) ........ 15 Economic background ......................................................................................... 17 Labour force demand and supply ...................................................................... 18 Unemployment and the potential additional labour force .......................... 23 Earnings .................................................................................................................. 26 References ............................................................................................................... 31 In Focus: International migration ......................................................................... 33 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 35 1 Emigration and immigration in Hungary after the regime change – by international comparison (Ágnes Hárs) ............................................... 39 2 Emigration .......................................................................................................... 55 2.1 Migration intentions in contemporary Hungary (Endre Sik & Blanka Szeitl) ................................................................................................ 55 2.2 The social and demographic composition of emigrants from Hungary (Zsuzsa Blaskó & Irén Gödri) ........................................................ 60 2.2.1 Hungarian immigrants in the United Kingdom (Chris Moreh) ... 69 2.3 Labour migration, cross-border commuting, emigration (Ágnes Hárs & Dávid Simon) ......................................................................... 73 2.3.1 Migrants with left-behind children in Hungary (Zsuzsa Blaskó & Laura Szabó) ............................................................................................. 87 2.4 Changes in the emigration rates of medical doctors between 2003 and 2011 (Júlia Varga) ..................................................................................... 90 2.5 Factors affecting the international labour migration of medical doctors in Hungary (Ágnes Hárs & Dávid Simon) .................................... 97 2.6 Remittances to Hungary and how to measure them (László Kajdi) ... 105 2.7 Returning migrants (Ágnes Horváth) ...................................................... 110 2.7.1 Public policies encouraging return migration in Europe (Judit Kálmán) ............................................................................................ 117 3 Immigration ..................................................................................................... 122 3.1 The labour market integration of immigrants in Hungary – an analysis based on Population Census data (Irén Gödri) ................ 122 3.1.1 Why do immigrants in Hungary have better employment figures? (Róbert Károlyi) ........................................................................... 136 3.1.2 The role of immigration in the European “employment miracles” (János Köllő) .............................................................................. 139

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3.2 The impact of immigration on the labour market situation of the employees of recipient countries in Europe – summary of empirical findings (Katalin Bördős, Márton Csillag & Anna Orosz) ..................... 142 3.3 Determinants of the cultural integration of immigrants (Dániel Horn & István Kónya) .................................................................... 150 4 Terminology in migration (Judit Tóth) ...................................................... 159 Labour market policy tools (May 2015 – March 2016) (Ágota Scharle) ..... Institutional changes ......................................................................................... Benefits ................................................................................................................. Services ................................................................................................................. Active labour market tools and complex programmes ............................... Policy tools affecting the labour market ........................................................ Annex ....................................................................................................................

169 171 172 172 173 175 176

Statistical data ......................................................................................................... 1 Basic economic indicators ............................................................................. 2 Population ........................................................................................................ 3 Economic activity ........................................................................................... 4 Employment .................................................................................................... 5 Unemployment ............................................................................................... 6 Wages ................................................................................................................. 7 Education ......................................................................................................... 8 Labour demand indicators ............................................................................ 9 Regional inequalities ...................................................................................... 10 Industrial relations ....................................................................................... 11 Welfare provisions ........................................................................................ 12 The tax burden on work .............................................................................. 13 International comparison ........................................................................... Description of the main data sources .............................................................

179 181 183 186 194 204 221 228 232 234 242 247 253 257 259

Index of tables and figures .................................................................................... 265

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Authors Tamás Bakó – CERS HAS Zsuzsa Blaskó – Hungarian Demographic Research Institute Katalin Bördős – Budapest Institute Márton Csillag – Budapest Institute Éva Czethoffer – CERS HAS károly fazekas – CERS HAS Irén Gödri – Hungarian Demographic Research Institute Ágnes Hárs – Kopint-Tárki Institute for Economic Research Dániel Horn – CERS HAS Ágnes Horváth – OgResearch Budapest László Kajdi – Judit Kálmán – CERS HAS Róbert Károlyi – János Köllő – CERS HAS István Kónya – CERS HAS Judit Lakatos – Hungarian Central Statistical Office Christian Moreh – Esrc Centre For Population Change, University Of Southampton Anna Orosz – Budapest Institute Ágota Scharle – Budapest Institute Endre Sik – TÁRKI Social Research Institute Dávid Simon – ELTE Faculty of Social Sciences Laura Szabó – Hungarian Demographic Research Institute Blanka Szeitl – TÁRKI Social Research Institute Judit Tóth – University of Szeged, Faculty of Law and Political Sciences Júlia Varga – CERS HAS