The Humber’s Future Economic and Sustainable Development White Paper containing the Final Report of the
Hull University Business School 2013
Research Project, April 2013 David B Grant (Editor)
The Humber’s Future Economic and Sustainable Development White Paper containing the Final Report of the Research Project, April 2013 David B Grant (Editor)
2 | 84
Contents Executive summary ........................................................................................................ 5 The Humber’s future economic and sustainable development ....................................... 7 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................. 7 Objectives, work packages and deliverables ........................................................................................... 7 WP1: The current economic performance of the Humber sub-region based on economic activities and landscape ................................................................................. 9 Demographic features.............................................................................................................................. 9 Employment patterns ............................................................................................................................ 10 Industrial structure ................................................................................................................................ 12 Economic performance.......................................................................................................................... 12 Base and shift-share analysis ............................................................................................................ 12 Infrastructure ......................................................................................................................................... 15 Motor vehicle traffic .......................................................................................................................... 15 Port traffic .......................................................................................................................................... 15 Housing market ................................................................................................................................. 15 Renewable energy .................................................................................................................................. 15 References .............................................................................................................................................. 17 List of tables ........................................................................................................................................... 18 Appendix: Tables 1–23 and Figures 2–6. ............................................................................................. 19 WP2: Port-centric logistics ........................................................................................... 39 Introduction ...........................................................................................................................................39 Port-centric logistics ..............................................................................................................................39 Port-centric logistics in the Humber region.....................................................................................39 Estimate of the current size of the market for port-centric logistics activity .................................... 40 Employment ...................................................................................................................................... 40 Gross value added (GVA) ................................................................................................................. 40 Estimate of future port centric logistics activity .................................................................................. 41 Survey questionnaire ......................................................................................................................... 41 Future employment ........................................................................................................................... 41 Gross value added .............................................................................................................................. 41 Conclusion ..............................................................................................................................................42 References ..............................................................................................................................................42 WP3: Research on potential employment and value in offshore wind ......................... 43 Introduction ...........................................................................................................................................43 Economic projections ............................................................................................................................44 SWOT analysis .......................................................................................................................................46 Assessment of the ten tenets of sustainability for the proposed construction and installation of four offshore wind farms ...............................................................................................................................46 Recommendations ................................................................................................................................ 48 Appendix A – key assumptions ............................................................................................................ 48 References ..............................................................................................................................................49 WP4: Other renewable energy ....................................................................................... 51 Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 51 Analysis methodology ............................................................................................................................ 51 Results – capacity, turnover and employment ..................................................................................... 53 Results – SWOT tables .......................................................................................................................... 56
3 | 84
Conclusions .............................................................................................................................................57 Appendix A –Assumptions and caveats ............................................................................................... 58 References .............................................................................................................................................. 58 WP5: Sustainability in environmental management .................................................... 59 Introduction........................................................................................................................................... 59 10-tenets for Humber sustainable development ................................................................................. 59 Application of the ten tenets ................................................................................................................. 62 Recommendations for further work ..................................................................................................... 63 References .............................................................................................................................................. 64 WP6: The future economic landscape (to 2025) for the economic performance of the Humber sub-region. ..................................................................................................... 67 Demographic change ............................................................................................................................. 67 Employment forecasting: sectoral and spatial distribution ................................................................ 69 The constant share method .............................................................................................................. 69 The shift share method ..................................................................................................................... 70 Data used ........................................................................................................................................... 70 Results ............................................................................................................................................... 70 The outlook for the renewable energy sector ........................................................................................ 71 List of figures ......................................................................................................................................... 74 References .............................................................................................................................................. 74 List of appendices .................................................................................................................................. 74 Conclusions and future steps ....................................................................................... 79 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................................ 79 Stakeholder briefing .............................................................................................................................. 79 Future steps ........................................................................................................................................... 80 WP1 and WP6 .................................................................................................................................... 80 WP2.................................................................................................................................................... 80 WP3.................................................................................................................................................... 80 WP4.................................................................................................................................................... 80 WP5 .....................................................................................................................................................81 Appendix: List of attendees at briefing and feedback session ...................................... 83
4 | 84
Executive summary This research project was developed to help support the Humber Local Economic Partnership (LEP) and its aims were to identify the future economic landscape of the Humber estuary based on its current and future potential such as port-centric logistics development, offshore wind energy projects, and other renewable energy projects. The project had six objectives and work packages (WPs 1-6). • • • • •
•
Establish a baseline of the current economic performance for the region based on economic activities and landscape (WP1). Identify and estimate the types and sizes of economic activities due to logistics and port-centric development around the Humber Port (WP2). Identify and estimate the types and sizes of economic activities due to offshore wind turbine manufacturing site (WP3). Identify economic impact of other renewable energy related developments (WP4). Carry out a rigorous appraisal of the 10-tenets required for sustainable management and future development of the Humber against the background of the above economic sectors while allowing the developers to fulfil their environmental and societal responsibilities (WP5). Establish the future landscape for the economic performance of the region based on the success of these future economic activities and disseminate the findings via a stakeholder workshop (WP6).
Major findings from the six work packages are as follows. •
•
•
• •
•
Total gross value added (GVA) for the Humber sub-region (East Riding of Yorkshire, Kingstonupon-Hull, North East Lincolnshire and North Lincolnshire) was £14.0 billion in 2009 and comprised primarily production and manufacturing (28 per cent), public administration, education and health (22 per cent), and distribution, transport, accommodation and food (21 per cent). Total 2011 population in the sub-region was 917,600 with 406,200 in employment. A survey of over 100 logistics companies in the Humber sub-region estimates a 17.5 per cent growth in port-centric logistics activities by 2025, translating to an additional £350 million GVA and 8,200 jobs. Increased economic activity in the Yorkshire and Humber region due to offshore wind developments are estimated to be between £4 billion–£10 billion GVA and 8,000–15,000 jobs through to 2020. The economic impact from the growth of other renewable energy related developments in the Yorkshire and Humber region is estimated to be £1.3 billion GVA and 4,200 jobs. A scoring system was applied to the 10-tenets required for sustainable management and future development in the Humber sub-region that should allow developers to fulfil environmental and societal responsibilities while achieving the above economic objectives. Without activities discussed in WPs 2-4, the population growth rate in the Humber sub-region will only average 0.5 per cent to 2025 and in the working age population will decline from 2020 onwards. Scenario modelling found it reasonable for the Yorkshire and Humber region to meet its 15 per cent renewable energy target share by 2025.
Port-centric logistics development, offshore wind energy projects, and other renewable energy projects can be economic and employment ‘game-changers’ for the Humber sub-region with potential increases in economic activity and employment for the Humber sub-region ranging from £5.65 billion to £11.65 billion GVA and 20,400 to 27,040 jobs. All six work packages have ongoing future research potential including any academic papers to be published and follow-on research funding to be pursued.
5 | 84
6 | 84
The Humber’s future economic and sustainable development Professor David B Grant (Editor) Associate Dean (Business Engagement), Hull University Business School
Introduction This research project was developed in early 2012 to help support the Humber Local Economic Partnership (LEP). The project’s aims were to identify the future economic landscape of the Humber Estuary based on its current and future potential such as port-centric economic development, offshore wind turbine manufacturing, and other renewable energy projects such as bio-fuel, anaerobic digestion, tidal power, carbon capture, etc. This project was unique as it involved three of the University of Hull’s interdisciplinary strategic themes: energy and environment, connected communities (economic and social regeneration) and international maritime. The project was led by an interdisciplinary team which included Hull University Business School (Logistics, Economics), the Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences (Politics, Law School), and the Faculty of Science (Geography, Engineering, Institute of Estuarine and Coastal Studies). It also involved consultation with the University’s Knowledge Exchange and Centre for Adaptive Science and Sustainability, the Humber LEP, local authorities, and local and foreign businesses. The project focused on the current and future economic and environmental landscapes to provide outputs in the form of policy and strategy suggestions (e.g. skills, education, business support, environmental policy, etc.) to develop the Humber region’s economy in a sustainable way. The project was funded internally by the University of Hull and we are grateful to the Vice-Chancellor, Professor Calie Pistorius, for his support of this project.
Objectives, work packages and deliverables The project had six objectives and work packages (WPs 1-6). • • • • •
•
Establish a baseline of the current economic performance for the region based on economic activities and landscape (WP1). Identify and estimate the types and sizes of economic activities due to logistics and port-centric development around the Humber Port (WP2). Identify and estimate the types and sizes of economic activities due to offshore wind turbine manufacturing site (WP3). Identify economic impact of other renewable energy related developments (WP4). Carry out a rigorous appraisal of the 10-tenets required for sustainable management and future development of the Humber against the background of the above economic sectors while allowing the developers to fulfil their environmental and societal responsibilities (WP5). Establish the future landscape for the economic performance of the region based on the success of these future economic activities and disseminate the findings via a stakeholder workshop (WP6).
Reports for each of the six WPS follow this introduction.
7 | 84
8 | 84
WP1: The current economic performance of the Humber subregion based on economic activities and landscape Dr Jonathan P Atkins 1, Roland Getor, Dr Michael A Nolan and Dawid Trzeciakiewicz Centre for Economic Policy, Hull University Business School
WP 1 provides a baseline assessment of current economic performance for the Humber sub-region, set against regional and national benchmarks. Particular focus is on the sub-region’s current demographic features, employment patterns, gross value added, industrial structure, infrastructure and renewable energy capacity. The Humber region (or Hull and Humber Ports City Region) consists of four Local Authority (LA) areas: East Riding of Yorkshire and Kingston-upon-Hull on the north bank of the Humber estuary; and North East Lincolnshire and North Lincolnshire on the south bank of the Humber. It is situated on the east coast of UK facing continental Europe and the Humber Estuary is a natural asset providing economic opportunities through both its biodiversity and functionality 2. The Humber region can be characterised based on its current population, employment patterns, industrial structure, Gross Value Added (GVA), infrastructure and renewable energy capacity. The purpose of this report is to highlight some key features of the sub-region and the approach adopted is more selective than, for example, the Local Authorities’ Local Economic Assessments and the wide-ranging Data Observatories 3. Figure 1: The Humber sub-region
Demographic features The population of a country/region/sub-region is important because, in addition to the totals giving an indication of the total number of people living within a defined area, characteristics such as 1
Contact details for corresponding author:
[email protected] Progress in Hull and Humber Ports City Region, 2009. Humber Economic Partnership Ltd. 3 For example, see East Riding of Yorkshire Local Economic Assessment, East Riding of Yorkshire Council, 2011. 2
9 | 84
structure and distribution provide essential supply- and demand-side information for policy development, and planning. The latest 2011 population census estimates released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) indicate that 917,600 people were present in the Humber sub-region as at 27 March 2011 of whom 452,600 were male and 465,000 were female. A breakdown of the Humber sub-region population by unitary authorities is presented in Table 1 (see appendix). The sub-region covers about 3,517 sq. km with East Riding of Yorkshire being one of the largest unitary authorities in England 4 occupying an area of 2,408 sq. km and Kingston-upon-Hull having one of the highest population densities in England 5 (ONS, 2012). Table 2 shows that over the period 2001-2010, the population of the sub-region rose from 875,800 to 921,200 with East Riding having the largest increase of about 7.6% and North Lincolnshire, the lowest increase of 5.4% over the decade. Interestingly, North East Lincolnshire witnessed a 0.4% drop in population over the decade which could well be due to people emigrating from the area in search of better opportunities (especially employment) elsewhere. In addition, the sub-region’s population growth (5.2%) was similar to those of England (5.6%) and the UK (5.3%) 6. Similarly from Table 3, it is evident that over the decade, East Riding of Yorkshire experienced the highest population change in the Humber sub-region with an increase of 23,800 whereas North East Lincolnshire had the lowest change with a drop of 700. However, the figures show that Kingston upon-Hull witnessed the biggest rise in working age population (21,700) and again, North East Lincolnshire recorded the lowest increase of 2,200 over the period. The population trends indicate that the Humber region accounted for about 13.9% of the change, in terms of all persons, in the Yorkshire and Humber region and about 1.6% of the change in England. It is notable that Hull’s working age population was growing strongly when compared to the other LAs and the benchmark areas shown in the table. This will have had implications for both the demand for goods and services and the supply of labour. Some implications of the population figures should be spelt out. • • • • •
The 2011 population census estimates show the Humber sub-region as 17.4% of Yorkshire and the Humber’s population and 1.7% of England’s population as at 27th March 2011. Though the East Riding is the most populous unitary authority, Kingston upon Hull continues to have the most people per square kilometre. Yorkshire and the Humber had 8.42% of UK population in 2001, and 8.51% by 2010. The Humber sub-region had 1.48% of UK population in 2001, and 1.48% by 2010. Population trends for 2001-2010 mainly show gentle increases (for LA areas, the sub-region, region and nation), except that there has been a modest fall in the population of North-East Lincolnshire.
Employment patterns Tables 4 and 5 provide a summary of some key employment-related characteristics of the working age population. Table 6 provides changes in these characteristics for the period 2004-2010. As reference areas we provide statistics for Yorkshire and the Humber, and for England. Economic activity and employment rates among people aged 16-64 in East Riding of Yorkshire, North
4 The East Riding of Yorkshire was the largest unitary authority in England until four larger authorities came into effect at the start of April 2009. 5 Actually Hull lies 43rd, based on mid-2008 population (where 19 of the top 20 were in London). Hull’s population density is more than twice that of any other LA within Yorkshire and The Humber. 6 The potential problems with the population trends are worth noting: Census 2011 (admittedly for 27th March) gives results which are not in keeping with the apparent trends of the mid-year (30th June) estimates for the period 2001-2010.
10 | 84
Lincolnshire and North East Lincolnshire are comparable to, or higher than, those in the wider region and England as a whole. Over the period analysed in Table 6, the economic activity rate improved in East Riding of Yorkshire, North and North East Lincolnshire, while the employment rate fell less quickly than in England and the Yorkshire and the Humber region. The situation is different in Kingston upon Hull where both rates have decreased over the period 2004 - 2010 more than in the reference areas and in 2010, as shown in Table 4, reached significantly worse results. Compared to England, unemployment levels have worsened across the Humber region over the period 2004-2010. In 2010 Kingston upon Hull and North East Lincolnshire were characterised by much higher unemployment levels than in East Riding of Yorkshire and North Lincolnshire – with those areas being comparable to reference regions. Percentages of people aged 16-64 who are self employed tend to be lower in the Humber region compared to the reference regions. Table 6 indicates that the quality of the labour force improved over the period 2004-2010. While the percentage of people with NVQ4 aged 16-64 tend to be lower across the region, % with no qualification is rather variable with the best results in East Riding of Yorkshire. In 2009, BRES data indicate that Hull had 5.17% of Yorkshire and the Humber’s total employment (East Riding of Yorkshire had 5.21%). Meanwhile, the green jobs report’s estimates imply that Hull had only 3.72% of Yorkshire and the Humber’s primary green jobs (4.50% for East Riding). However, the BRES data are subject to sampling errors. It should be noted that jobs are spatially identified in the BRES data via local unit (individual enterprise site) workplace, rather than location of head office or worker residence. This is potentially highly relevant. The Quantum Strategy and Technology et al. report (2011) on prospects for green jobs estimates that in 2009, about 1,400 and 6,900 people were employed in Hull in the primary 7 and secondary 8 green sectors. Compared to Hull and East Riding combined (North Humber), Hull has about 45% and 35% of total green jobs employment in primary and secondary sectors respectively. At the Yorkshire and the Humber region level, figures show that about 36,100 primary and 55,000 secondary green jobs (out of roughly 135,000 in secondary sectors) were available in 2009. These accounted for around 3.6% of total employment in the region. It has been projected that by 2020, the key green economy sectors are likely to increase in size creating over 20,000 new jobs in the region as whole. RenewableUK figures indicate that as at 2010, the UK wind and marine energy sector directly employed around 10,800 full-time equivalent employees across about 500 organisations. Table 7 demonstrates Hull’s tendency to be relatively under-represented in higher level occupations, while the East Riding is correspondingly over-represented. Table 8 indicates quite different travel to work patterns for the LAs of the Humber sub-region and imply different degrees of self containment . For 2007, 64.3% of those who work in Hull also live in Hull (approximately one third of those working in Hull live in East Riding), while 88.2% of those who live in Hull also work in Hull. Contrast these findings with East Riding where 84.6% of those who work in East Riding also live in East Riding, while 56.1% of those who live in East Riding also work in East Riding (nearly 32% work in Hull and more than 10% work outside the Humber sub-region). In the case of North East Lincolnshire (86.8% and 88.6%) and North Lincolnshire (82% and 83.2%) less disjunction is revealed.
7
These jobs refer to those in which company activities are wholly or mainly aimed at the low carbon and environmental markets. 8 Jobs here refer to those where company activities are partially involved in the low carbon and environmental markets. Not all of these are green jobs (a similar proportion to the overall region would suggest about 2,800 secondary green jobs in Hull in 2009).
11 | 84
Industrial structure Tables 9 and 10 present gross value added (GVA) by industry group at current prices, its share in the total GVA generated by given region (Table 9), and its average, annual change for years between 1997 and 2009 (Table 10). Production, with 28.32%, comprises the highest percentage share of total GVA in the Humber region, and significantly exceeds the corresponding value for Yorkshire and the Humber, and England. The remaining two groups of industries which dominate the Humber GVA are distribution, transport, accommodation and food which comprise 20.81 % of total GVA, and administration, education and health which contain 22.05 % of total GVA. Groups of industries in the Humber region which contributed significantly less to the total GVA than in the English average include, among others, information and communication (2.41%), financial and insurance activities (2.79%), and business service activities (6.83). Percentage increase in GVA between 1997 and 2009 among these groups of industries has also been significantly lower than the corresponding numbers for England. Percentage change in GVA for the period from 1997 to 2009 in real estate activities and production have exceeded the equivalent values for England. Tables 11 and 12 provide numbers of local units (individual enterprise sites) in 2011 and shares of total numbers, and the percentage change between 2009 and 2011.
Economic performance Indicators of economic performance and their analysis, both at the regional and sub-regional level, are important for effective policy making and in improving the understanding of regional/subregional economic performance. Focus here is on two areas of economic performance indicator analysis: base and shift-share analysis with its consideration of employment patterns and a wider analysis examining aspects of gross value added. Base and shift-share analysis Base analysis: The aim of the base analysis is to locate the exporting (basic) industries which we can conclude have comparative advantage 9. In the analysis we consider the four LAs. As reference areas we consider both the former Government Office Region (GOR) Yorkshire and the Humber, and England. In the analysis the following formula is used: Location quotient (LQ) =
Regional Employment in Industry X / Total Employment in Region Reference Area Employment in Industry X / Total Reference Area Employment
The interpretation of the Location Quotient is intuitive. For example, the Information and Communication sector accounts for 2% of employment in Kingston upon Hull and 4% of all employment in England, giving Hull’s LQ = 0.5. The result implies that the Information and Communication sector in the Kingston upon Hull is half as concentrated as in England which suggests that Kingston upon Hull has a comparative disadvantage in this industry. When the LQ score is greater than one, we conclude that there is comparative advantage in the sector and the output is exported to other regions. Results of the analysis are presented in Table 13. We can conclude that the highest comparative advantage of the four Local Authorities lies in the manufacturing sector. North East Lincolnshire and North Lincolnshire have high comparative advantage in the transport and storage and motor trades. Additionally, North Lincolnshire possesses high comparative advantage in mining, quarrying utilities and construction, and the East Riding in public administration. Also, Hull has advantage in the business administration and support services. Sectors with comparative disadvantage are similar across the various LAs within the Humber region
9
This analysis is based on a number of assumptions e.g. productivity does not vary across regions, and markets are efficient and flexible.
12 | 84
and include: agriculture, forestry and fishing 10, information and communication, professional, scientific and technical services, and finance and insurance. Shift-share analysis The aim of the shift share analysis is to decompose the employment growth of a given sector into the reference economy growth effect, the industrial mix effect, and the regional competitiveness effect. The meanings of these effects are briefly explained below. Note, only the employment change and regional competitiveness effects are reported for all sectors in this document. The reference economy growth effect The reference region growth effect is a fraction of the growth in a particular sector of the economy which can be attributed to the overall health/growth of the reference economy. For example, if employment in England decreased by 2.5% between 2008 and 2010, then we expect the number of jobs in the North Lincolnshire’s Mining, Quarrying and Utilities sector to decrease by 20 jobs ((initial employment of 800 in the sector) * (-0.025)). The industrial mix effect The industrial mix effect is the fraction of growth which can be attributed to the growth of the sector at the reference economy level. For example, in order to arrive at the industrial mix effect for the Mining, Quarrying and Utilities sector, from 12.6 % (increase in the given industry in England) we deduct -2.5% (the decrease in employment in the overall economy). The industrial mix effect is 15.1% which for North Lincolnshire is equal to approximately 120 jobs over the analysed period. The regional competitiveness effect The regional competitiveness effect determines the growth in the local sector which is attributed to unique local factors. This is simply the total regional industry growth adjusted by the reference economy growth effect and the industrial mix effect. We continue with the example of the Mining, Quarrying and Utilities sector in North Lincolnshire. In order to arrive at the regional competitiveness effect (500 jobs) from the sector jobs growth over the analysed period (600 as given in Table 14) we deduct the national economy growth effect (-20 jobs) and the industrial mix effect (+120 jobs). This result implies that approximately 500 jobs in the Mining, Quarrying and Utilities sector in the North Lincolnshire arose due to unique regional advantages. Table 14 presents employment changes in the period 2008-2010 and the fraction of these changes attributable to local conditions. Overall, we conclude that the significant decrease in the number of jobs across the Humber region that occurred in Manufacturing and Construction was caused by factors other than regional conditions. Regional conditions contributed significantly to the employment decrease in the Professional, Scientific and Technical Sector, Motor Trades, and Education (except for North Lincolnshire). In the Humber region, the sectors classified as ‘Other’ have experienced a significant increase in employment supported significantly with regional effects. Remaining sectors which gained in employment across the region were Mining, Quarrying and Utilities and Health. The retail sector has experienced significant increase in East Riding of Yorkshire, and regional conditions played an important role in it. Regional conditions also played an important role in the increase in public administration, business administration and support services, and in the property sector in Kingston upon Hull and the East Riding of Yorkshire. Figures 2-5 (see appendix) present a summary of the base and shift-share analyses for the four LAs (Presentation of the results is informed by Vannstruth Consulting Group (2009)). The X-axis takes the values of the location quotient i.e. the comparative advantage, and the Y-axis takes the values of 10
BRES data excludes farm agriculture employees for sub-regions and LA areas. It is also possible that labourextensive production systems may also be in place in such highly rural areas as the East Riding.
13 | 84
the change in local industry employment (in thousands over the analysed period) that can be attributed to unique regional conditions. The size of the bubble denotes the employment increase (in thousands, over the analysed period), with those industries which had a negative growth being denotes by white bubbles, while those with zero growth by empty bubbles. Each of the graphs can be divided into quadrants ( •
• • •
NW|NE SW|SE
), where
the NE (North East) quadrant comprises sectors which possess comparative advantage and unique local conditions stimulate growth in the sector which grows faster regionally than nationally the NW (North West) quadrant comprises sectors which derive extra growth from unique local conditions, but possess comparative disadvantage the SW (South West) quadrant comprises sectors which neither possess comparative advantage nor derive growth from local conditions the SE (South East) quadrant comprises sectors which possess comparative advantage, but do not derive growth from local conditions
Gross value added performance Gross Value Added (GVA) is very important since it is a good measure of the economic performance of a region (measure of the value added to materials and other inputs in the production of goods and services by resident organisations before allowing for depreciation or capital consumption). Dunnel (2009) notes that GVA per hour worked is a preferred indicator (to GVA/head) for comparing productivity between different regions/sub-regions since it takes into consideration different labour market structures across regions/sub-regions, people commuting in and out of regions and also regional differences in the percentage of residents not directly contributing to GVA 11. Tables 15–17 show GVA per hour worked; GVA at current basic prices and GVA by Industry at current basic prices for various years. From Table 17, the Total GVA for the Humber sub-region in 2009 (£14,040 million) accounted for 16.2 per cent of the total GVA for the Yorkshire and the Humber region. In addition, between 1997 and 2009, the total GVA for the sub-region increased at an average nominal rate of 3.1 per cent per year which is less than the average annual change in the Yorkshire and the Humber region (3.8%), and less than that in England (4.6%). Within the sub-region, Hull’s average growth rate of total GVA was highest, at 3.5%. Although there are some underlying issues of concern surrounding GVA per head, the broad pattern is in keeping with what we have already seen for the trends in total population and total GVA: Yorkshire and the Humber has seen a decline in its UK share of GVA per head in the period 19972009, and the fall for the Humber sub-region over the same period has been even steeper. However, Hull saw a less steep decline than the rest of the sub-region – due largely to a rising trend in relative GVA per head for 1997-2002, which was subsequently replaced by a (sharper) reversal. Some implications of these growth rates should be spelt out. • • •
11
Yorkshire and the Humber had 7.51% of UK GVA in 1997, but only 6.71% by 2009. The Humber sub-region had 1.32% of UK GVA in 1997, but fell back even more swiftly to just 1.12% by 2009. Across the 1997–2009 period, the two LA areas to the south of the Humber estuary performed less strongly on GVA – falling back from 0.53% of UK GVA in 1997 to only 0.43% in 2009.
National Statisticians article: measuring regional economic performance, January 2009.
14 | 84
Infrastructure The scale and diversity of the Humber sub-region makes it difficult to provide a broad but concise assessment of the use of infrastructure and its capacity. Focus here is on three aspects of the use of the infrastructure: motor vehicle traffic, port traffic and housing. Motor vehicle traffic The long term trend reflected in Table 18 suggests a significant increase in vehicle traffic on roads although there is a decline after 2006/07, possibly due to the recession and/or rising fuel prices. Between 1993 and 2011 the Humber sub-region has seen traffic growth of 19.6% (East Riding 22.9%; Hull 7.3%; NE Lincs. 14.8%; and N Lincs. 26.6%) which compares with growth of 20.9% for Yorkshire and the Humber, and 17.9% for England. A related development within the sub-region that is likely to impact on intra-Humber region traffic in the future is the reduction in Humber Bridge tolls introduced in 2012; it is too early to identify the impact of this on traffic flows. Port traffic Table 19 presents tonnages through major ports in Humber region for year 2011 and percentage change for the period 2000–2011, and Figure 6 (see appendix) presents tonnage on a quarterly basis for Humber ports for 2000Q1–2011Q4. It is noted that while total tonnage at all major ports in the UK decreased in the period by almost 9%, Humber ports have seen an increase of over 3% due to the increased activity in Grimsby and Immingham. Housing market Table 20 indicates that for the four local authorities, the highest average house price in 2010 is reported in East Riding of Yorkshire of £169,362. This is substantially less than the average house price in England for the same year (£240,033). Nonetheless, the increase in average house price in the Humber region equals 125.89% for the period from 2001 to 2010, which is much higher than 118.33% in Yorkshire and the Humber and 97.12% in England. Turning to housing supply, Table 21 indicates that out of the four local authorities, East Riding of Yorkshire experienced the highest rise in dwelling supply for the period from 2001 to 2010, equal to 8.42%. This increase is higher than that obtaining in the Yorkshire and the Humber (5.94%), and the 7.01% achieved in England. The second largest gain in dwelling supply for the same period was in Hull equal to 8.04%. North East Lincolnshire and North Lincolnshire experienced significantly lower increases in housing supply, respectively 1.06% and 3.66%. Note that there is no allowance for type of housing in this assessment, and the evidence needs to be considered in the light of the demographic trends, such as those demonstrated earlier in this report.
Renewable energy The area of renewable energy has gained increasing attention in recent years not only at the national level but also at the regional and sub-regional levels. At the national level, a comprehensive range of legislation supports the installation of low carbon and renewable energy technologies. Research has been commissioned 12 into establishing the potential renewable energy capacity in England as delivered through Regional Spatial Strategies (RSS) 13. The UK has committed to supply 15% of gross energy consumption 14 from renewable sources by 2020. Similarly, all regions have policies and targets in relation to renewable energy which have been published in RSSs 15. In Yorkshire and Humber, the RSS (Yorkshire and Humber Plan) was published in May 2008. It sets out clear policies 12
Commissioned by Communities and Local Government (CLG), February 2009; the findings were to be used to inform the planning elements of the final UK Renewable Energy Strategy (RES). 13 Renewable Energy Capacity in Regional Spatial Strategies-Final Report, July 2009. 14 The EU’s target is 20%. 15 Planning Policy Statement (PPS) 22: Renewal Energy (2004)
15 | 84
for the generation of renewable energy expressed in terms of minimum installed generating capacity and broken down into sub-regional targets 16 for 2010 and 2021. A summary of the proposed Yorkshire and Humber renewable energy targets and progress towards those targets are shown in Table 22. At the sub-regional level, the RSS also expected local authorities to set targets for grid-connected renewable energy and set an interim ‘decentralised and renewable or low carbon energy’ target for new developments for the period before local development frameworks are adopted. The Coalition government’s “Consultation on Planning Policy Statement (PPS): Planning for a Low Carbon Future in a Changing Climate” (2010) also encourages local authorities to plan for low carbon and renewable energy on strategic level through the development of planning policies that encourage introduction of decentralised energy systems served by low carbon and renewable energy supplies 17. The Yorkshire and Humber renewable energy report (2011) acknowledges that the Hull and Humber Ports sub-region has significant opportunities in wind, straw, energy crops, imported biomass, renewable energy research and skill development among others with the sub-region having the highest wind potential in the region. East Riding, for instance, has the greatest renewable energy resource with the authority having the most potential for commercial scale wind energy in the Yorkshire and Humber Region. Hull has an opportunity to establish a manufacturing and supportservices capacity in wind turbine technologies for off-shore wind farms, and to become a bio-fuel technology research hub. North-East Lincolnshire boasts of the biggest port complex in the UK with the docks and industrial complex in and around Immingham (together with the refineries in Killingholme and the adjacent North Lincolnshire Authority) having facilities to handle liquid, solid and renewable fuels. 18 The excellent transport links and access to the Humber Estuary could also make it a hub for biomass fuel processing for plants such as the 65 MW Helius biomass plant outside of Stallingborough which will require up to 850,000 tonnes of sustainably sourced feedstock a year. For North Lincolnshire, the main renewable energy opportunities are focused around wind power with the area also having potential for biomass energy generation. Table 23 shows the current capacity and potential resource for renewable energy in the Humber region by technology and by local authority. For this section, the following observations can be made. • •
•
•
The total installed capacity (MW) in the region is about 7.3% of that of all the regions; and 34.8% and 13.2% of the region’s 2010 and 2020 targets respectively. Given that 4.6% of the region’s current energy consumption in 2006 was from renewable sources more needs to be done if future demands are to be met. Hence policy should be focused on bringing the required extra capacity needed to meet 2020 targets. Sub-regional current capacity and renewal energy resources show East Riding has the highest potential for wind generation with North and North East Lincolnshire also having significant potential. In terms of biomass, the Humber sub-region has significant straw resource.
16 The targets largely derived from Regional Renewable Energy Assessment and Target Study (2002) and Planning for Renewable Energy Targets in Yorkshire and Humber (2004). 17 Low Carbon and Renewable Energy Capacity in Yorkshire and Humber- Final report by AECOM, April 2011. 18 North East Lincolnshire Local Development Framework Annual Monitoring Report 2010, Balfour Beatty, December 2010.
16 | 84
References AEAT (2004).Planning for Renewable Energy Targets in Yorkshire and Humber-Final report. Vol. 2. Produced for Government Office for Yorkshire and Humber and the Yorkshire and Humber Assembly by AEAT. AECOM (2011) Low Carbon and Renewable Energy Capacity in Yorkshire and Humber.-Final Report with Appendices. (April, 2011). Commissioned by Local Government Yorkshire and Humber. Balfour Beatty (2010). North East Lincolnshire Local Development Framework Annual Monitoring Report 2010. British Wind Energy Association (BWEA) (2009). England’s Regional Renewable Energy Targets: Progress report. 2009. Centre for Cities (2009). Hull: Growing the Real Economy. An independent report prepared by Centre for Cities for Hull City Council, May. Dunnel, K. (2009). National Statistician’s article: measuring regional economic performance. Economic & Labour Market Review, Vol. 1, No. 1. January. East Riding of Yorkshire Council (2011). East Riding of Yorkshire Local Economic Assessment 2011. Hull City Council (2011). City of Hull Local Economic Assessment 2011. Humber Economic Partnership (2009). Progress in the Hull and Humber Ports City Region 2009. Office for National Statistics (2012). Annual Population Survey. Office for National Statistics (2012). The Inter Department Business Register, Office for National Statistics (2012). Local profiles: Demography. April. Office for National Statistics (2012). Local profiles: Economic context. April. Office for National Statistics (2012). Population Census and Land Area, 2011. Office for National Statistics (2012). Regional Accounts. Ove Arup & Partners Ltd (2009).Renewable Energy Capacity in Regional Spatial Strategies - Final report. (July, 2009). Department for Communities and Local Government. North Lincolnshire Council (2011). North Lincolnshire Local Economic Assessment 2011. Quantum Strategy and Technology, the BE Group and University of Hull (2011). Prospects for Green Jobs to 2020. Prepared for Yorkshire Cities. [also the associated Hull Profile] Vannstruth Consulting Group (2009). Regional Economic Analysis Vancouver Island and Central/Sunshine Coasts: Final Report (2009). Produced by Vannstruth Consulting Group and prepared for: Vancouver Island Economic Alliance.
17 | 84
List of tables Table 1 Population, land area and population density for Humber sub-region Table 2 Population estimates by broad age band-all persons (thousands) Table 3 Change and % change in population by broad age band Table 4 Selected employment-related statistics for period January 2010-December 2010 (part 1) Table 5 Selected employment-related statistics for period January 2010-December 2010 (part 2) Table 6 Differences in selected employment related statistics between 2004 and 2010 (2010 percentage - 2004 percentage) Table 7 Occupational structure (Proportion of workforce), 2010 Table 8 Conjunction and disjunction between residence and employment location by Local Authority, 2007 Table 9 Gross Value Added by industry at current basic prices and GVA share Table 10 Gross Value Added by industry at current basic prices and percentage changes 1997-2009 Table 11 Number of Local Units* in VAT in 2011 and share of total number Table 12 Number of Local Units* in VAT in 2011 and percentage change from 2009 Table 13 Location quotients with respect to the Yorkshire and the Humber former G.O.R. and England for 2010 Table 14 Employment change and regional competitiveness effect in thousands for years 2008-2010 (Thousands) Table 15 Nominal GVA per hour worked, by NUTS 2 & 3 Humber sub-region, UK 2004-2009 (UK = 100) Table 16 GVA per filled job index at current prices (UK=100) Table 17 Headline1 GVA2, 3 at current basic prices for the Humber region (£ millions) Table 18 Motor vehicle traffic (million vehicle miles) by local authority in Yorkshire and the Humber, annual from 1993 to 2011 Table 19 Tonnages through major ports in Humber region for year 2011 and percentage change for the period 2000 - 2011. Table 20 House Prices Table 21 Housing Stock Table 22 Yorkshire and Humber renewable energy targets Table 23 Current renewable energy capacity in the Yorkshire and Humber region, in terms of MW
18 | 84
Appendix: Tables 1–23 and Figures 2–6. Table 1 Population, land area and population density for Humber sub-region Population
Land area (sq. km)
Population density (people per sq. km)
East Riding of Yorkshire
334,200
2,408
138.8
Unitary Authority, sub-region and region Kingston upon Hull, City of
256,400
71
3,588.7
North East Lincolnshire
159,600
192
831.9
North Lincolnshire
167,400
846
197.8
Humber sub-region
917,600
3,517
260.9
5,283,700
15,408
342.9
53,012,500
130,279
406.9
Yorkshire and The Humber England
Source: 2011 Population Census and Land Area; Office for National Statistics, 2012 Table 2 Population estimates by broad age band-all persons (thousands) Mid2001
Mid2002
Mid2003
Mid2004
Mid2005
Mid2006
Mid2007
Mid2008
Mid2009
Mid2010
East Riding
314.9
319.2
323.0
326.7
329.4
331.4
333.9
336.1
337.0
338.7
Hull
249.9
249.9
251.6
254.5
256.9
258.7
259.5
261.1
262.4
263.9
NE Lincs.
158.0
157.8
158.0
158.0
158.0
157.6
157.3
157.2
157.1
157.3
N Lincs.
153.0
153.9
155.6
156.9
158.0
159.0
159.7
160.5
161.0
161.3
Humber region
875.8
880.8
888.2
896.1
902.3
906.7
910.4
914.9
917.5
921.2
5,029.2 5,066.9
5,110.8
5,146.4
5,181.8
5,217.5
5,258.1
5,301.3
Yorkshire and the Humber England
4,976.6 5,002.2
49,449.7 49,649.1 49,863.3 50,109.7 50,466.2 50,763.9 51,106.2 51,464.6 51,809.7 52,234.0
Source: Mid-year estimates, Office for National Statistics April 2012 Table 3 Change and % change in population by broad age band
Area
Change in population by broad age band: mid-2001 to mid-2010 (thousands) All 0-15 16-64 65+ persons years years years
% change in population by broad age band: mid-2001 to mid-2010 (%) All 0-15 16-64 65+ persons years years years
East Riding of Yorkshire
23.8
-2.5
13.6
12.7
7.6
-4.2
6.9
21.9
Kingston upon Hull, City of
14.0
-6.2
21.7
-1.4
5.6
-11.7
13.6
-3.7
North East Lincolnshire
-0.7
-4.8
2.2
2.0
-0.4
-13.8
2.3
7.7
North Lincolnshire
8.3
-0.9
5.0
4.2
5.4
-2.9
5.2
16.3
Humber region
45.4
-14.4
42.5
17.5
5.2
-8.1
7.7
11.9
Yorkshire and The Humber
324.7
-41.9
299.3
67.2
6.5
-4.1
9.5
8.4
2,784.3
-142.1
2,155.5
770.8
5.6
-1.4
6.8
9.8
England
Source: Mid-year estimates, Office for National Statistics April 2012
19 | 84
2,003,500
20 | 84
Source: ONS Annual Population Survey
England
231,900
5,700
North Lincs.
Yorkshire and the Humber
9,100
North East Lincs.
43,600
17,100
Hull
Humber sub-region
11,700
East Riding
Number
7.6
8.8
9.5
7.2
11.5
13.2
6.9
%
Unemployment rate – aged 16+
1,985,900
230,700
43,400
5,700
8,900
17,100
11,700
Number
7.8
9
9.7
7.3
11.5
13.3
7.1
%
Unemployment rate aged 16-64
23,614,500
2,344,100
406,200
72,500
68,800
111,600
153,300
Number
70.4
68.5
69.2
71.4
70.1
62.4
73.7
%
Employment rate aged 16-64
Table 4 Selected employment-related statistics for period January 2010-December 2010 (part 1)
25,600,400
2,574,800
449,600
78,200
77,700
128,700
165,000
Number
76.4
75.2
76.6
77.1
79.2
72
79.3
%
Economic activity rate aged 16-64
3,110,900
283,900
43,500
7,800
6,700
10,000
19,000
Number
9.3
12.1
10.7
10.8
9.7
9
12.4
%
% aged 16-64 who are self employed
Table 5 Selected employment-related statistics for period January 2010-December 2010 (part 2) % with NVQ4+ – aged 16-64
% with no qualifications – aged 16-64
Number
%
Number
%
East Riding
64,800
31.1
19,500
9.4
Hull
35,800
20
31,200
17.4
North East Lincs.
18,200
18.5
11,300
11.5
North Lincs.
24,600
24.2
10,300
10.2
Humber sub-region
143,400
24.4
72,300
12.3
Yorkshire and the Humber
904,300
26.4
436,200
12.8
10,414,100
31.1
3,729,100
11.1
England Source: ONS Annual Population Survey
% with no qualifications aged 16-64
% with no NVQ4+ - aged 16-64
% aged 16-64 who are self employed
Economic activity rate aged 16-64
Employment rate - aged 16-64
Unemployment rate - aged 16-64
Unemployment rate - aged 16+
Table 6 Differences in selected employment related statistics between 2004 and 2010 (2010 percentage - 2004 percentage).
% East Riding
3.9
4.1
-0.2
3.1
-0.3
6.3
-3.5
Hull
6.1
6.1
-6.2
-1.9
-0.1
6.4
-3.7
North East Lincs.
4.9
4.9
-1.0
3.0
-0.3
4.3
-2.9
North Lincs.
3.3
3.3
-2.0
0.7
1.0
5.8
-2.1
Humber subregion
4.7
4.6
-2.5
1.1
0.0
5.9
-3.2
Yorkshire and the Humber
4.3
4.4
-3.6
-0.3
0.9
3.8
-2.9
England
2.9
3.0
-2.4
-0.1
0.3
5.3
-3.8
Source: ONS Annual Population Survey
21 | 84
Table 7 Occupational structure (Proportion of workforce), 2010. N Lincs.
Yorkshire and the Humber
East Riding
Hull
NE Lincs.
Corporate managers and directors
8.2
3.7
6.9
5.6
6.5
7.4
Other managers and proprietors
3.5
1.8
2.4
3.0
2.6
2.9
Science, research, engineering and technology professionals
5.6
3.7
3.3
3.8
4.4
5.2
Health professionals
4.3
2.6
3.0
1.5
3.9
3.7
England
Teaching and educational professionals
4.3
4.5
3.6
4.1
4.8
4.9
Business, media and public service professionals
4.8
2.9
2.6
3.3
3.9
5.1
Science, engineering and technology associate professionals
1.6
1.3
1.7
2.2
1.8
1.7
Health & social care assoc. professionals
2.1
2.1
1.8
1.3
1.5
1.4
Protective service occupations
1.8
1.7
n/a
1.9
1.1
1.2
Culture, media and sports occupations
0.6
1.9
1.6
1.3
1.5
2.1
Business & public service assoc. professionals
6.4
4.4
4.1
5.7
6.4
7.4
Administrative occupations
8.2
6.6
7.3
7.8
8.2
8.4
Secretarial and related occupations
2.4
2.2
1.7
2.3
2.5
2.9
Skilled agricultural and related trades
0.7
0.9
1.0
0.7
1.0
1.1
Skilled metal, electrical and electronic trades
3.5
4.8
4.4
6.7
3.9
3.9
Skilled construction and building trades
3.6
4.8
4.2
2.7
3.6
3.6
Textiles, printing and other skilled trades
2.8
4.5
3.5
1.3
2.5
2.1
Caring personal service occupations
6.9
6.5
9.1
6.6
7.5
7.1
Leisure, travel and related personal service occupations
1.5
1.8
1.2
3.4
2.0
2.0
Sales occupations
8.2
8.0
7.5
6.4
6.4
6.1
Customer service occupations
0.7
2.0
1.4
1.2
2.1
1.9
Process, plant and machines operatives
3.1
4.6
6.0
4.3
4.0
2.9
Transport & mobile machine drivers/operatives
3.0
5.5
6.5
6.8
4.5
3.6
Elementary trades and related occupations
2.9
4.1
1.5
4.1
2.5
1.7
Elementary administration & service occupations
8.9
12.4
12.4
11.7
10.4
9.1
Source: ONS Annual Population Survey
22 | 84
Table 8 Conjunction and disjunction between residence and employment location by Local Authority, 2007 Where workers live (2007) Work in:
Hull
Live in:
Number
%
Number
%
Number
%
Number
%
Hull
91,600
64.3
10,000
9.8
700
1.0
600
0.8
East Riding
49,000
34.4
86,500
84.6
500
0.7
1,600
2.1
500
0.4
0
0.0
63,900
86.8
4,200
5.6
1,100
0.8
600
0.6
4,100
5.6
61,200
82.0
300
0.2
5,200
5.1
4,400
6.0
7,000
9.4
142,500
100
102,300
100
73,600
100
74,600
100
NE Lincs. N Lincs. Other areas Total
East Riding
NE Lincs.
N Lincs.
Where residents work (2007) Live in:
Hull
Work in:
Number
%
Number
%
Number
%
Number
%
Hull
91,600
88.2
49,000
31.8
500
0.7
1,100
1.5
East Riding
10,000
9.6
86,500
56.1
0
0.0
600
0.8
NE Lincs.
700
0.7
500
0.3
63,900
88.6
4,100
5.6
N Lincs.
600
0.6
1,600
1.0
4,200
5.8
61,200
83.2
Other areas Total
East Riding
NE Lincs.
N Lincs.
900
0.9
16,500
10.7
3,500
4.9
6,600
9.0
103,800
100
154,100
100
72,100
100
73,600
100
Source: Centre for Cities, Hull: Growing the Real Economy. An independent report prepared by Centre for Cities for Hull City Council, May 2009
23 | 84
154 211 274
Financial and insurance activities
Real estate activities
Business service activities
4,572 100.00%
2.62%
22.42%
5.99%
4.62%
3.37%
3.57%
20.89%
7.63%
24.72%
4.18%
GVA share
2.15%
18.74%
6.38%
6.01%
2.30%
1.21%
21.73%
8.46%
32.07%
0.96%
GVA share
5 389 100.00%
116
1,010
344
324
124
65
1,171
456
1,728
52
value 2009
N&NE Lincs.
2.23%
26.01%
8.36%
4.56%
2.79%
2.70%
19.51%
6.25%
27.41%
0.15%
GVA share
4 079 100.00%
91
1,061
341
186
114
110
796
255
1,118
6
value 2009
Hull
2.33%
22.05%
6.83%
5.14%
2.79%
2.41%
20.81%
7.55%
28.32%
1.77%
GVA share
14 040 100.00%
327
3,096
959
721
392
338
2,922
1,060
3,976
249
value 2009
Humber Region
2.65%
22.54%
9.05%
7.17%
8.11%
3.77%
20.22%
7.36%
18.17%
0.96%
GVA share
86,821 100.00%
2,303
19,570
7,854
6,224
7,039
3,272
17,553
6,394
15,775
834
value 2009
Y&H
3.45%
19.58%
12.55%
7.39%
10.73%
6.67%
19.14%
6.95%
12.88%
0.65%
GVA share
1,06, 972 100.00%
36,588
207,946
133,265
78,490
113,997
70,860
203,284
73,837
136,754
6,952
value 2009
England
24 | 84
Source: Regional Accounts, Office for National Statistics
Note: The figures for Humber Region, Yorkshire and the Humber, and England were calculated by summing the GVA of each industry for appropriate NUTS 3 areas. The ONS data does not separately identify NE Lincs. and N Lincs.
Total GVA
120
163
Information and communication
Other services and household activities
955
Distribution; transport; accommodation and food
1,025
349
Construction
Public administration; education; health
1 130
191
value 2009
Production
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Industry:
East Riding
Table 9 Gross Value Added by industry at current basic prices and GVA share
154 211 274
Financial and insurance activities
Real estate activities
Business service activities
4,572
45.98
90.48
99.81
44.21
129.35
116.90
117.33
44.92
114.11
5.61
-19.07
5 389
116
1 010
344
324
124
65
1,171
456
1,728
52
% value change 2009
37.83
78.46
104.45
37.05
58.05
110.17
75.68
44.21
80.24
3.35
-18.75
4,079
91
1,061
341
186
114
110
796
255
1,118
6
% value change 2009
N&NE Lincs.
51.52
26.39
88.12
49.56
58.97
111.11
41.03
37.01
68.87
34.05
-53.85
% change
14,040
327
3,096
959
721
392
338
2,922
1,060
3,976
249
value 2009
44.21
63.50
97.07
43.35
74.15
113.04
77.89
42.40
86.95
11.19
-20.45
% change
Hull Humber Region
86 821
2,303
19,570
7,854
6,224
7,039
3,272
17,553
6,394
15,775
834
value 2009
56.31
62.64
95.21
83.93
72.70
146.29
110.55
50.31
78.85
0.90
-10.90
% change
Y&H
1,061,972
36,588
207,946
133,265
78,490
113,997
70,860
203,284
73,837
136,754
6,952
value 2009
70.59
88.36
103.88
97.48
63.14
158.18
105.82
58.06
94.84
2.70
-4.28
% change
England
Source: Regional Accounts, Office for National Statistics
25 | 84
Note: The figures for Humber Region, Yorkshire and the Humber, and England were calculated by summing the GVA of each industry for appropriate NUTS 3 areas. The ONS data does not separately identify NE Lincs. and N Lincs.
Total GVA
120
163
Information and communication
Other services and household activities
955
Distribution; transport; accommodation and food
1,025
349
Construction
Public administration; education; health
1 130
191
value 2009
Production
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
Industry:
East Riding
Table 10 Gross Value Added by industry at current basic prices and percentage changes 1997-2009.
475 600
Motor trades
Wholesale
410
Finance & insurance
Property
805
Health
Arts, entertainment, recreation and other services
350
330
140
65
290
480
120
100
105
335
300
830
285
235
665
380
80
100.00% 5,090
5.83%
5.39%
2.39%
0.72%
5.61%
9.78%
2.97%
1.77%
3.26%
6.19%
4.53%
10.39%
4.34%
3.44%
12.42%
6.81%
14.16%
370
295
160
70
355
570
125
110
140
410
420
685
280
265
695
445
495
425
280
720
700
20
510
775
250
375
585
560
220
180
160
545
295
100.00% 7,760
6.28%
5.01%
2.72%
1.19%
6.03%
9.68%
2.12%
1.87%
2.38%
6.96%
7.13%
26 | 84
Source: The Inter Department Business Register, Office for National Statistics.
* Local unit is an individual site in an enterprise, for instance shop or a factory.
1,255 4,110
875
635
855
2,145
610 2,145
880
100.00% 32,550
6.57% 2,035
9.99%
3.22%
4.83%
7.54% 2,005
7.22% 2,960
2.84%
2.32%
2.06%
7.02%
3.80% 1,640
14.95%
5.48% 1,590
3.61%
9.28% 3,795
9.02% 2,465
13,615
9,820
6,545
7,085
5,945
4,395
7,235
11,385
4,990
2,355
11,735
100.00% 184,470
6.25% 12,020
6.59%
2.70%
1.87%
6.16%
9.09% 19,965
2.69%
1.95%
2.63%
6.59% 12,685
5.04%
12.63% 23,505
4.88%
3.86%
11.66% 20,140
7.57%
126,145
94,640
N
England
64,785
69,425
77,655
57,285
121,785
55,760
20,485
100.00% 2,161,190
6.52% 153,220
6.17%
2.71%
1.28%
6.36% 154,860
10.82% 309,650
3.22%
2.38%
3.92% 143,090
6.88% 134,920
3.84%
12.74% 237,860
5.32% 108,605
3.55%
10.92% 231,020
7.38%
5.99%
N % of total
7.83% 11,050
N % of total
Humber Region Y&H 0.26% 2,550
N % of total
Hull
11.63% 1,160
4.75%
4.50%
11.80%
7.56%
8.40%
N % of total
N Lincs.
100.00% 5,890
6.88%
6.48%
2.75%
1.28%
5.70%
9.43%
2.36%
1.96%
2.06%
6.58%
5.89%
16.31%
5.60%
4.62%
13.06%
7.47%
1.57%
N % of total
NE Lincs.
Note: The figures for Humber Region were calculated by summing the number of local units for appropriate NUTS 3 areas.
13,810
745
Education
TOTAL
100 330
Public administration and defence
775
Business administration and support services
1,350
245
Information & communication
Professional, scientific & technical
855 450
Accommodation & food services
625
Transport & storage (inc. postal)
1,435
1,715
Construction
Retail
940
1,955
N % of total
East Riding
Production
Agriculture, forestry & fishing
Industry:
Region:
Table 11 Number of Local Units* in VAT in 2011 and share of total number
100.00%
7.09%
5.64%
2.58%
0.95%
7.17%
14.33%
3.59%
2.65%
6.62%
6.24%
3.21%
11.01%
5.03%
3.00%
10.69%
5.84%
4.38%
% of total
Hull
Humber Region Y&H
England
Wholesale
450 -10.00% 245 -2.00% 410 -4.65%
Information & communication
Finance & insurance
Property
745 805
Health
Arts, entertainment, recreation and other services
1.54%
-4.13%
0.00%
6.43%
0.00%
-1.75%
0.00%
2.86%
7,760 -12.76%
510 -16.39%
775 -23.27%
250 16.28%
375 -36.44%
585 -4.88%
560 -5.08%
220
180
160 -15.79%
545 -23.24%
295 -9.23%
1,160 -4.53%
425 -10.53%
280
720 -18.18%
700 -9.09%
20 -7.32%
-5.88%
4.44% -8.29% -6.94% -4.76% -3.03% -7.14%
5,090
350
330
-7.96%
-7.89%
8.20%
140 -12.50%
65
290 -13.43%
480
120 -20.00%
100
105 -12.50%
335
300 -9.09%
830
285 -8.06%
235
665 -15.29%
380
80
5.36%
0.00%
7.69%
5,890 -7.46%
370 -14.94%
295
160
70
355 -14.46%
570 -0.87%
125 -10.71%
110 -8.33%
140 -12.50%
410 -8.89%
420 -11.58%
685 -2.84%
280 -5.08%
265 -10.17%
695 -15.24%
445 -6.32%
495 -1.00%
-2.71% -4.53%
-1.82%
-6.91%
-2.31%
2.33%
32,550
0.41%
126,145
94,640
64,785
134,920
69,425
-6.19%
5.32%
1.73%
7.78%
12,020 -5.50%
11,385
4,990
2,355
77,655
57,285
153,220
121,785
55,760
20,485
154,860
2.94% 309,650 11,735 -8.10%
19,965
5,945 -2.38%
4,395
7,235 -2.69% 143,090
12,685 -9.52%
7,085 -7.08%
23,505 -3.59% 237,860
9,820 -3.58% 108,605
6,545 -1.28%
20,140 -10.88% 231,020
13,615 -5.68%
11,050
27 | 84
-7.52% 184,470 -3.86% 2,161,190
2,035 -8.74%
2,145 -6.54%
880
610 -25.61%
2,005 -9.48%
2,960
875
635
855 -11.86%
2,145 -11.55%
1,640 -8.89%
4,110
1,590 -7.02%
1,255
3,795 -15.01%
2,465 -6.98%
2,550 -0.20%
* Local unit is an individual site in an enterprise, for instance shop or a factory. Source: The Inter Department Business Register, Office for National Statistics.
Note: The figures for Humber Region were calculated by summing the number of local units for appropriate NUTS 3 areas.
13,810
330
Education
TOTAL
100
Public administration and defence
5.26%
775 -8.82%
Business administration and support services
1,350 -0.37%
855 -5.52%
Accommodation & food services
Professional, scientific & technical
625 -6.72%
Transport & storage (inc. postal)
1,435 -3.04%
475 -2.06% 600 -4.76%
Motor trades
Retail
1,715 -13.38%
Construction
0.26%
940 -5.53%
1,955
Production
Agriculture, forestry & fishing
Industry:
N Lincs.
% % % % % % change change change change change change from from from from from from number 09 number 09 Number 09 number 09 number 09 number 09 Number
NE Lincs.
East Riding
Region:
Table 12 Number of Local Units* in VAT in 2011 and percentage change from 2009
-3.41%
-5.11%
6.66%
2.43%
3.67%
-10.50%
2.03%
-3.61%
-1.83%
-1.36%
-7.89%
-5.15%
-3.08%
-2.46%
-2.17%
-8.95%
-7.70%
0.52%
% change from 09
1.95 1.10
Public Admin
Other
28 | 84
Source: BRES data available from ONS
1.08 0.99
0.60
Business Administration and Support Services
Health
0.80
Professional, Scientific & Technical
Education
0.88
Property
Accommodation & Food Services 0.77
1.13
Transport & Storage (inc Postal)
0.27
0.94
Retail
Information & Communication
1.05
Wholesale
Finance & Insurance
1.10 0.93
Motor Trades
1.06
2.13
1.15
1.12
0.56
0.53
0.69
0.24
0.50
1.07
0.95
1.05
0.95
1.00
1.12
0.98
0.70
1.24
0.92
0.99
0.81
0.65
0.29
0.38
0.92
1.70
1.17
0.88
1.37
0.84
0.94
0.76
1.44
0.96
0.93
0.54
0.51
0.26
0.25
0.87
1.72
1.17
0.90
1.25
0.87
1.60
0.78
0.67
0.98
0.84
0.70
0.64
0.86
0.33
0.27
0.96
1.53
0.94
0.90
1.27
1.52
1.87
0.75
0.73
1.13
0.88
0.66
0.43
0.67
0.29
0.18
0.91
1.55
0.94
0.92
1.16
1.57
2.41
1.88
0.95
1.19
1.02
0.87
1.26
0.64
0.72
0.28
0.76
0.80
0.91
1.16
1.08
0.98
1.06
1.40
0.91
n/a
0.91
1.30
1.18
0.91
1.19
0.43
0.56
0.25
0.50
0.76
0.93
1.16
1.10
0.90
1.10
1.81
0.98
n/a
0.96
1.09
1.16
1.04
0.94
0.67
0.78
0.88
0.65
0.95
1.02
1.00
1.02
0.91
1.03
1.29
1.08
1.13
1.08
1.24
1.74
0.10
Construction
1.39
0.81
0.09
1.08
0.75
0.10
Manufacturing
0.87
0.09
0.81
0.30
Mining, Quarrying & Utilities
Y&H
0.26
Hull
Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing
N Lincs.
Y&H England Y&H England Y&H England Y&H England England
NE Lincs.
Reference Area:
East Riding
Table 13 Location quotients with respect to the Yorkshire and the Humber former G.O.R. and England for 2010
-0.20 -0.80 0.20 -0.90 0.20 -2.50 2.50 5.30 2.40
Information & Communication
Finance & Insurance
Property
Professional, Scientific & Technical
Business Administration and Support Services
Education
Health
Public Admin
Other
-1.00
Accommodation & Food Services
-0.70 -0.50
Motor Trades
Wholesale 0.10
-0.90
Construction
Transport & Storage (inc Postal)
-1.70
Manufacturing
1.50
0.20
Mining, Quarrying & Utilities
Retail
0.00
Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing
Reference Area:
Empl change
2.42
4.88
1.45
-2.69
0.66
-0.84
0.16
-0.67
-0.12
-0.50
0.34
1.78
-0.29
-0.56
0.06
-0.47
0.09
0.03
regional compet. effect
East Riding
0.20
-0.30
2.20
-0.80
0.10
-1.20
-0.30
-0.20
-0.10
-0.30
0.10
0.00
-0.10
-0.50
-1.00
0.10
0.10
0.00
Empl. change
NE Lincs.
0.22
-0.46
1.45
-0.89
0.55
-1.16
-0.33
-0.14
-0.07
-0.07
0.36
0.21
0.01
-0.40
-0.49
0.83
0.04
0.01
regional compet. effect
0.50
0.10
1.90
0.40
-0.90
-0.50
0.10
-0.10
0.00
-0.40
-1.20
0.00
-0.30
-0.30
-1.20
-1.20
0.60
0.00
Empl. change
N Lincs.
0.51
-0.04
1.32
0.33
-0.49
-0.47
0.07
-0.04
0.02
-0.16
-0.90
0.17
-0.18
-0.21
-0.35
0.01
0.50
0.01
regional compet. effect
Table 14 Employment change and regional competitiveness effect in thousands for years 2008-2010 (Thousands).
0.80
0.80
1.10
-3.20
0.50
-1.50
0.20
-0.40
0.00
-0.40
-0.30
-1.70
0.20
-0.20
-0.80
-1.50
0.20
n/a
Empl. change
Hull
0.82
0.43
-0.05
-3.37
1.43
-1.44
0.17
-0.30
0.07
-0.07
-0.05
-1.32
0.40
-0.10
0.10
0.00
0.07
n/a
regional compet. effect
13.30
12.20
42.10
-18.50
1.50
-18.60
-5.00
-9.80
-0.30
-17.70
-3.40
-9.30
-5.90
-8.70
-25.80
-19.20
5.80
-1.70
Empl. change
Y&H
29 | 84
13.81
5.97
21.31
-21.56
16.66
-17.12
-6.27
-3.97
1.64
-9.15
1.84
-3.24
-1.78
-6.45
-7.56
1.81
3.25
0.53
regional compet. effect
Figure 2 Kingston upon Hull 2.00
Business Adm.& Supp. Serv., 0.50 1.00 Other, 0.80 Wholesale, 0.20
Local Conditions Growth Effect
Property, 0.20 Information & Communication, 0.0 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 0.00 Accommodation & Food Services, -0.40 Finance & Insurance, -0.40
Public Admin, 0.80
Construction, -0.80 0.00 1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
Manufacturing, -1.50 1.80
2.00
Health, 1.10
-1.00 Professional, Scientific & Technical, -1.50
Retail, -1.70
-2.00
-3.00 Education, -3.20
-4.00 Comparative Advantage
Figure 3 East Riding of Yorkshire 7.00
6.00 L o c a l C o n d i t i o n s
5.00
Public Admin, 5.30
4.00
3.00 E f f e c t
Property, 0.20 G r 0.00 0.50 o Finance & Insurance, -0.80 w t Professional, Scientific & h Technical, -0.90
Other, 2.40 2.00 Retail, 1.50
Health, 2.50
1.00 Construction, -0.90 0.00 1.00
1.50 Manufacturing, -1.70
-1.00
-2.00 Education, -2.50 -3.00
30 | 84
Comparative Advantage
2.00
2.50
Figure 4 North East Lincolnshire 2.00
1.50 L o c a l
Health, 2.20
1.00 Manufacturing, 0.10
Business Adm.& Supp. Serv., 0.10 C o 0.50 n Other, 0.20 E d Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing, Retail, 0.0 f i 0.0 f Wholesale, -0.10 t 0.00 e 0.20 0.40 0.60 Accommodation 0.80 & Food Services, 1.00 1.20 1.40 i 0.00 c -0.30 o Finance & Insurance, -0.20 t Property, -0.30 Construction, -1.00 n Motor Trades, -0.50 -0.50 s Public Admin, 0.0 G r o w t h
Transport & Storage, -0.20
1.60
1.80
2.00
-1.00 Professional, Scientific & Technical, -1.20
Education, -0.80 -1.50
-2.00 Comparative Advantage
Figure 5 North Lincolnshire 2.00
1.50 Health, 1.90
Information & Communication, 0.0
Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing, 0.0
L o c a l
C o n d E f i f t e i c 0.00 o t Finance & Insurance, -0.10 n s Professional, Scientific & Technical, -0.50 G r o w t h
1.00
Other, 0.50 0.50 Education, 0.40 Property, 0.10
Mining, Quarrying & Utilities, 0.60
Retail, 0.0
Accommodation & Food Services, 0.00 -0.40 0.50 1.00 Public Admin, 0.10
1.50
2.00
Manufacturing, -1.20 2.50
Motor Trades, -0.30 Construction, -1.20 -0.50 Business Adm.& Supp. Serv., -0.90 -1.00
-1.50
Transport & Storage (inc Postal), -1.20
Comparative Advantage
31 | 84
Table 15 Nominal GVA per hour worked, by NUTS 2 & 3 Humber sub-region, UK 2004-2009 (UK = 100) 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
90.0
90.4
90.6
90.7
90.5
90.3
NUTS 2 Humber region NUTS 3 Hull
80.6
81.1
81.8
82.9
83.3
83.4
East Riding
95.4
95.6
95.4
94.9
94.4
94.3
N and N.E Lincolnshire
94.2
94.5
94.5
94.1
93.3
92.7
Y&H
90.4
90.5
90
89.9
91.1
88.9
England
101.7
101.8
101.9
101.8
101.8
101.8
Note: Figures for Yorkshire and the Humber and England are taken from June 2012 update whereas those for the Humber region are taken from April 2012 update. Source: Regional Accounts, Office for National Statistics April & June 2012
Table 16 GVA per filled job index at current prices (UK=100)
Hull
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Index
Index
Index
Index
Index
Index
Index
Index
84.5
84.2
83.5
83.1
82.6
82.3
81.9
81.6
East Riding
93.3
92.7
92.7
92.4
91.9
90.4
89.3
88.7
N and N.E Lincolnshire
94.6
93.9
92.8
92.1
91.6
91.5
91.1
91.1
Y&H
93.0
91.2
89.1
89.6
88.6
88.4
88.5
87.2
England
101.7
101.9
101.7
102
101.9
101.7
101.8
101.7
Source: Regional Accounts, Office for National Statistics April & June 2012
32 | 84
Table 17 Headline GVA at current basic prices for the Humber region (£ millions)
North and North East Lincolnshire
East Riding of Yorkshire
East Yorkshire and North Lincolnshire/ Humber region
Yorkshire and The Humber
England
United Kingdom
Year
NUTS Level 3
Kingston upon Hull, City of
NUTS Level 2
NUTS Level 1
1997
739,442
622,531
55,545
9,735
2,692
3,132
3,910
1998
782,037
661,723
58,236
9,978
2,833
3,158
3,987
1999
822,914
696,458
60,305
10,059
2,932
3,172
3,954
2000
864,036
725,959
62,397
10,271
3,054
3,267
3,950
2001
907,393
764,440
65,518
10,735
3,211
3,444
4,080
2002
956,899
808,329
69,164
11,376
3,398
3,686
4,292
2003
1,014,703
858,523
73,190
12,080
3,610
3,907
4,562
2004
1,070,369
905,640
76,991
12,723
3,794
4,114
4,815
2005
1,116,882
942,583
79,487
13,083
3,905
4,193
4,985
2006
1,183,940
997,084
83,512
13,699
4,038
4,411
5,250
2007
1,252,602
1,055,306
87,569
14,315
4,166
4,630
5,519
2008
1,283,884
1,078,810
88,761
14,406
4,172
4,685
5,550
2009
1,256,932
1,061,973
86,821
14,040
4,079
4,572
5,389
Source: Regional Accounts, Office for National Statistics March 2012
Table 18 Motor vehicle traffic (million vehicle miles) by local authority in Yorkshire and the Humber, annual from 1993 to 2011 1993
1995
2000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
1,625
1,713
1,843
2,027
2,057
2,062
2,070
2,042
2,005
1,996
Hull
681
696
717
759
752
762
752
751
731
731
NE Lincs.
520
537
565
605
614
612
609
603
594
597
N Lincs.
786
827
901
1,006
1,017
1,045
1,030
1,012
991
995
Humber
3,611
3,772
4,026
4,397
4,440
4,481
4,461
4,407
4,321
4,318
Yorkshire and the Humber
21,112
22,042
23,902
25,829
26,323
26,605
26,208
25,826
25,444
25,526
220,777
230,011
249,810
263,695
266,937
269,067
266,254
263,711 259,588
260,271
East Riding
England
Source: Department for Transport (TRA8901)
33 | 84
Table 19 Tonnages through major ports in Humber region for year 2011 and percentage change for the period 2000 - 2011. 2011
2000 - 2011
Million tonnes
% change
1.85
-31.8
57.23
9.0
Goole Grimsby and Immingham Hull
9.29
-13.4
River Trent
1.28
-47.6
Rivers Hull and Humber
10.19
13.0
Total for Humber ports
79.83
3.1
506.08
-8.8
Total all UK major ports
Figure 6 Quarterly total major port tonnage 2000Q1 – 2011Q4 (million tonnes).
25.00 20.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 0
Goole
Grimsby and Immingham
Hull
River Trent
Rivers Hull and Humber
Total for Humber Ports
Source: DfT Port Statistics. Notes & definitions (http://assets.dft.gov.uk/statistics/series/ports/portstattechnote.pdf)
34 | 84
95,367
86,838
141,108
77,160
53,319
62,511
41,483
59,948
73,954
121,769
East Riding
NE Lincs.
N Lincs
Hull
Humber region*
Y&H
England
159,357
105,936
87,975
57,227
91,485
73,819
117,860
2003
181,330
127,749
108,066
66,348
114,584
92,961
145,330
2004
192,247
138,948
118,218
78,982
125,149
99,492
154,721
2005
206,715
150,818
128,571
90,953
131,442
111,893
164,529
2006
222,619
159,222
137,513
100,898
137,541
119,775
174,462
2007
220,310
156,041
137,707
100,634
137,828
118,702
175,395
2008
216,493
153,736
129,471
92,840
130,109
122,435
160,707
2009
240,033
161,466
135,418
98,310
134,917
124,253
169,362
2010
97.12%
118.33%
125.89%
136.99%
115.83%
133.04%
119.50%
% change 2001-2010
138,060
2,165,000
21,337,000
136,540
111,680
69,170
66,530
383,920
2,155,000
21,207,000
East Riding
NE Lincs.
N Lincs
Hull
Humber region*
Y&H
England
21,481,000
2,176,000
387,680
67,790
69,680
110,980
139,230
2003
21,636,000
2,190,000
390,620
68,330
70,020
111,270
141,000
2004
21,805,000
2,202,000
392,640
68,790
70,250
111,150
142,450
2005
* Value for Humber region equals sum of East Riding, NE Lincs., N Lincs., and Hull
Source: Department for Communities and Local Government.
386,120
67,250
69,460
111,350
2002
2001
Table 21 Housing stock
21,992,000
2,218,000
395,500
69,930
70,450
111,440
143,680
2006
22,190,000
2,237,000
398,650
70,620
70,810
112,150
145,070
2007
22,398,000
2,258,000
401,790
71,090
71,370
112,700
146,630
2008
22,564,000
2,272,000
403,000
71,490
71,450
112,960
147,100
2009
* Value for Humber region is a weighted average price of East Riding, NE Lincs., N Lincs., and Hull where weights are stock of housing.
Source: Department for Communities and Local Government; mean house prices based on Land Registry data.
70,727
47,485
70,472
59,256
2002
2001
Table 20 House prices
22,693,000
2,283,000
404,470
71,880
71,700
112,860
148,030
2010
35 | 84
7.01%
5.94%
5.35%
8.04%
3.66%
1.06%
8.42%
% change 2001-2010
Table 22 Yorkshire and Humber renewable energy targets Renewable Energy Target (MW)
Total installed generating capacity
Progress towards 2010 target
Progress towards 2020 target
Required additional to 2020
2010
2020
MW
%
%
MW
468
1232
163
35
13
1182
Source: BIS Energy Statistics (2008), Yorkshire and Humber Plan (2008)
36 | 84
0
0
0
0
39
65
548
Kingston Upon Hull, City of
North East Lincolnshire
North Lincolnshire
Hull and Humber Ports
Yorkshire and Humber
Regional biomass schemes
Co-firing schemes
Commercial wind
596
347
105
0
2
240
small scale wind 3
0
0
0
0
0
Solar PV 7
0
0
0
0
0.2
Solar Water Heating 1
0
0
0
0
0.3
Ground Source Heat Pumps 1
0
0
0
0
0.1
12
0
0.1
0
0
0
Biomass agricultural arisings (Straw) 78
30
0
0
0
30.2
12
2
0
0
0
2
14
14
14
0
0
0
80
26
0
6
20
0
EfW MSW
EfW poultry filter EfW wet
Biomass waste wood
Biomass energy crops
Hydro
(this comprises the 65MWe consented biomass Stallingborough, EON scheme in North East Lincolnshire)
3
0
0.1
0
0.1
0.1
Biomass woodfuel
Source: Low Carbon and Renewable Energy Capacity in Yorkshire and Humber- Final report, April 2011
0
District heating
East Riding of Yorkshire
current capacity (MW)
83
10
5.4
1
0
3.5
EfW landfill gas EfW C & I
“Current” refers to facilities that are operational or have planning consent. It has been assumed that all current biomass schemes contribute to the “Biomass woodfuel” capacity and all current EfW schemes contribute to the“EfW MSW” capacity. Some local authorities are in more than one sub-region, therefore the capacity in Yorkshire and Humber is not equivalent to the sum of the capacity of the sub-regions.
Table 23 Current renewable energy capacity in the Yorkshire and Humber region, in terms of MW
37 | 84
9
3
0.6
0.7
0
1.6
EfW sewage gas
38 | 84
WP2: Port-centric logistics Professor David Menachof and Dr Risto Talas Logistics Institute, Hull University Business School
Introduction The work package is focused on current and future port-centric logistics (PCL) activities in the Humber region. It aims to identify the potential for gross value-added (GVA) and future employment needs of future PCL activities by the year 2025. The Northern Way (2008) lists the three microeconomic and macro-economic factors that impact upon the level of goods passing through any port: trade levels, port capacity and supply chain decision making. In the third factor, the authors specifically refer to the location and number of distribution facilities; availability and reliability of land-side transportation options; and port-specific value-added activities. It is the final category which is of interest for this study. Finally, the Humber’s Local Enterprise Partnership consultative draft of July 2012 describes how “the Humber can establish an advantage through the rapidly emergent trend of port-centric logistics”.
Port-centric logistics The traditional role of the port in an organisation’s supply chain was the interface between the two modes of sea and land transport. However, this traditional role has, over the last few years, transformed from a mere transhipment hub to an important logistics hub where the provision of distribution and other value-adding logistics activities are applied to imported cargoes. These valueadding logistics activities include lower container demurrage fees; reduced carbon footprint through taking containers off the roads and faster repositioning of empty containers; improved inventory visibility and velocity; the ability to import overweight containers which would otherwise be illegal on UK roads; and other value adding activity such as bonded warehousing. These value-adding activities result in increased profit margins for ports and logistics companies by engaging in non-core port and logistics activity; and the associated cost savings to supply chains. The environmental benefits of PCL are the environmental savings in terms of reduced carbon footprint and road congestion. Port-centric logistics in the Humber region The nature of PCL activity in the Humber region include • • • • • • • • • • • • • •
On-port container handling Legal handling of overweight containers On-port warehousing Off-port warehousing HM Revenue and Customs brokerage services Bonded warehousing Order-processing Re-packing De-vanning Cross-docking Pallet storage and picking Product labelling Multi-supplier consolidation Vendor managed inventory
39 | 84
Immingham Associated British Ports (ABP) operates the Immingham Container Terminal for short-sea and feeder services operated by CMA CGM, Unifeeder, Feederlink, Tschudi Lines and UCI. DFDS Seaways also provides daily port-centric logistics services for containers at its outer berth at the DFDS Seaways Nordic Terminal. PD Ports also handles general and project cargo, steel and forestry products, minerals, wind energy components and biomass, and has covered warehousing, transhipment and de-vanning services on site. Grimsby ABP has retained its strong connections with the fishing and food industry but the port is also a major importer of cars with a modern and efficient terminal offering pre-delivery inspection and accessory-fitting services. The port has an established centre of excellence for operations and maintenance activities for Round 1 and 2 wind farms in the North Sea. Other PCL activities include bagging of bulk cargoes and timber treatment facilities. Hull PD Ports operates Hull Container Terminal at Queen Elizabeth Dock including refrigerated cargo for Samskip and McAndrews with covered warehousing and transhipment and de-vanning services on site. Containers are also handled in King George Dock by Transatlantic line. Goole ABP operates the container terminals at the Boothferry and Aldam Terminals. In addition, ABP handles a varied of dry bulks at the Caldaire Terminal, South Dock Terminals, Ouse Dock, West Dock and Stanhope Dock. Other cargoes handled include forest products, liquid bulks and steel and general cargo.
Estimate of the current size of the market for port-centric logistics activity The current size of the market for PCL activity is difficult to estimate accurately because of the difficulty in measuring the aggregate of all of the individual value-adding activities by all of the stakeholders (port operators, transport, haulage, 3PL etc) for imported goods. Furthermore, the overall value of the market includes the reduction in cost to the environment through the reduction in carbon footprint. Employment According to the Work Foundation (2010), Hull and Humber ports account for over 22% of employment in the ports sector in the wider Yorkshire and Humber. According to Skills for Logistics (2009), the logistics sector in Yorkshire and Humber employs around 158,100 people, being 7% of the region’s workforce. The Northern Way (2008) listed employment in the Yorkshire and Humber ports to be a total of 20,700 people, made up of building and repairing of boats and ships; sea and coastal water transport; inland water transport; cargo handling; and storage and warehousing. Furthermore, this showed an increase of 24% over the period from the year 2000 to 2006. However, Yorkshire Forward (2003) estimated that the employment impact of the Humber ports (direct and indirect) to be 46,500 jobs. Gross value added (GVA) Gross value added measures the wealth that is generated resulting from port-related activity. The Northern Way (2008) drew on a study by Regeneris Consulting to estimate the direct and indirect GVA of the Humber ports to be £600 million and £800 million respectively, yielding a total GVA of £1.4 billion for 2005.
40 | 84
Estimate of future port centric logistics activity While current size of the market for PCL activity is difficult to estimate accurately because of the difficulty in measuring the aggregate of all of the individual value-adding activities, nevertheless, it is possible to arrive at an estimate of the size of future PCL activity. This is done first, by combining the results of a survey questionnaire among existing PCL stakeholders on their expected future level of economic activity and existing economic and employment data; and secondly, by estimating the number of container-truck miles that would be eliminated given growth in PCL activity, specifically by forecasting the increased demand for port-centric container handling in off-port sites. Survey questionnaire A survey questionnaire was emailed to 100+ logistics companies in the Humber region and 22 questionnaires were returned, of which 10 were from companies involved in PCL. Of those 10, seven companies gave forecasts for how much they expected their PCL activities to grow by the year 2025. The mean was 36.7% with a standard deviation of 31.5%. However, of those seven respondents, two employ more than 200 people; one of them has an annual turnover of more than £100 million and the other an annual turnover of between £50 million and £100 million. Furthermore, Skills for Logistics (2009) states that of the logistics companies in the Yorkshire and Humber region, 82% of the workplaces employ fewer than 10 people and less than 1% employs more than 200 people. Furthermore, those companies that employ more than 200 people represent 19% of the total workforce in the sector. Therefore, the results of the survey questionnaire should be weighted towards the results of the two large employers involved in PCL activity and the mean of their predicted growth in PCL activity by 2025 is 17.5%. While the number of returned and completed questionnaires is not usually considered to be representative, given that two of the largest companies involved in PCL activity have given a prediction of their expected growth by 2025, the figure may be considered not to be unreliable. Future employment Able Humber Port’s (AHP) proposed port expansion on the south side of the Humber River includes both a combined logistics and business park as well as the development of a new marine energy park to house the offshore wind industry. The logistics and business park is expected to feature • • • • • •
Warehousing; Storage and distribution Chilled and frozen logistics Data centre (s); Document storage Commodities storage and distribution New location vehicle storage Supporting services including a hotel and an HGV park
AHP estimate that by 2020, the logistics and business parks will have created 3,000 jobs. Skills for Logistics (2009) predicts a workforce increase in the logistics sector of 1,000 workers by 2017 in the Yorkshire and Humber region. However, no details are given for the expected increase by 2025. Nevertheless, our survey results suggest that PCL activity in the Humber region by 2025 will require an additional workforce of 4000-8000 based on the expected growth of PCL activity of 17.5% for both direct and indirect activities. Gross value added Our estimate for the gross value added through port-centric logistics activity is £350 million based on the estimated growth of PCL activity of 17.5%, with the major assumption that PCL activities make up about 25% of the current indirect port activity.
41 | 84
Conclusion The work package has focussed on current and future logistics and port-centric logistics (PCL) activities in the Humber region. It aimed to identify the potential for gross value-added (GVA) and future employment needs of future PCL activities by the year 2025. The authors encountered difficulties in collecting accurate data on port-centric logistics activity owing to the perceived intangibility of much logistics value-adding activity. The authors propose that a series of in-depth case studies across different segments of industry involved in PCL would address this issue and enable a more accurate picture to evolve of current and future port-centric logistics in the Humber region.
References Able Humber Port < http://www.ablehumberport.com/logisticspark.htm> accessed 22 July 2012 Humber’s Local Enterprise Partnership consultative draft 2012 < http://humberlep.org/> accessed 25 July 2012 Northern Way (2008) accessed 1 August 2012 Skills for Logistics (2009) < www.skillsforlogistics.org> accessed 23 July 2012 Work Foundation (2010) accessed 1 August 2012
42 | 84
WP3: Research on potential employment and value in offshore wind Professor Chee Wong, Dr Federico D’Amico, Nima Ashani, Patrik Hennelly and Professor David B Grant Logistics Institute, Hull University Business School
Introduction The 2009 Renewable Energy Directive set a target for the UK to achieve 15% of its energy consumption from renewable sources by 2020, compared to 3% in 2009. Offshore wind is expected to contribute to 15% of the nation energy target by 2020. In terms of offshore wind energy, the UK made steady progress in 2011, meeting 12% of the UK’s electricity demand on 28 December and supplying an average of 5.3% of the UK’s electricity for the month (GWEC, 2011). At the end of 2010, the European Wind Energy Association reported that of the 3GW of offshore wind capacity in Europe, 46% was in UK waters (RenewableUK, 2011). Currently, the UK wind industry employs 10,600 people with numbers expected to rise to 88,300 by 2021 (GWEC, 2011). Also, a study published by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR, 2012) suggests that UK offshore wind industry is set to create almost 100,000 new jobs by the end of the decade. It estimates that the offshore wind industry will have created 45,000 jobs across the UK by 2015, rising to 97,000 by 2020. By 2030 the figure will be 173,000 jobs. Siemens has already agreed to open an 800-workforce factory in Hull and according to Parsons Brinckerhoff (2012) 3,000-7,600 jobs would rapidly arrive into the Humber-Sub Region from around 2014/15, but only in assembly and manufacture 19. Moreover, from a 2020 perspective The Prospects for Green Jobs to 2020 report forecasts three scenarios as follows: Low: 5,400; Most Likely: 11,500; High: 16,000 20. Several other reports (E.on, Dong, DECC) have estimated that altogether there could be 15,000 jobs created in the Humber region. This section identifies and estimates the types and sizes of economic activities due to offshore wind turbine projects and related manufacturing sites in the Humber Estuary. The economic activities and impacts examined in this report are from the four offshore wind farms (Humber Gateway, Westermost Rough, Hornsea, Dogger Bank) as they are offshore of Humber estuary and are expected to produce 13,459–17,259 MW of renewable energy. Data about turbine size, turbine quantity, developers, turbine model, turbine manufacturing sites and major component supplier sites, and costs associated with offshore wind farm projects from various sources were collected for analysis. The economic projections and job prospects are estimated based on estimated/possible local content (UK and Humber/Yorkshire regions) as percentages of the different cost elements for the four wind farms.
19 High
case assumption: 500 turbines per year on assumptions about investments in turbines, foundations, cables plus the associated supply chain opportunities (p. 76)
20 Based
43 | 84
Economic projections Table 24 – Forecast of CAPEX, OPEX, UK and Humber & Yorkshire content of proposed offshore wind farms
(m£)
UK content (m£)
Humber & Yorkshire content (m£)
719
36
87–488
61–215
750
40
72–356
49–120
12883
1188
1865–8725
1206–3203
26100
660
3778–7676
2443–6489
40294
1924
16560–23047
3984–9802
CAPEX (m£)
OPEX 21
E.ON; 219MW, 73 x 3MW Vestas
Westermost Rough
Dong, 240MW, No of turbines TBC
Hornsea
SmartWind, 4000MW, TBC
Projects
Farm data
Humber Gateway
7200 22
Dogger Bank
ForeWind, 12800MW, TBC
Total
17, 259MW
-
Assuming different capacity factors for each proposed offshore wind farm, high and low case assumptions are forecasted for both UK and H&Y content (for a detailed overview of key assumptions see Appendix A). Table 24 summarises the estimated economic activities deriving from the proposed four wind farms, which are estimated to range from £3,984 million (low case) to £9,802 million (high case). Figure 7 – Range (high and low cases, in £ million) of regional contribution in terms of CAPEX
1600 1400 1200 1000 High Case
800
Low Case
600 400 200 0
21
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Year
O&M costs are announced on annual basis. For the first five years of operation, the CAPEX includes the OPEX since the turbines and main components are under warranty. After that, annual OPEX is calculated according to Crown Estate (2012). 22 As regards Doggerbank project, official data are provided for Tranche A (2400MW) and Tranche B (4800MW). Tranche C and D will have a capacity of 3000MW each but timeline is not provided. Therefore employment calculations are based only on tranches A and D.
44 | 84
The CAPEX breakdown is as follows: development and consent 4.1%, turbine manufacturing (excluding towers) 33%, balance of plant 36.3%, installation and commissioning 26.6%. However, the OPEX breakdown comprises: operation 14.6%, maintenance 37.8%, port Activities 31.2%, licence fees 3.9%, other costs 11.4%. Figure 7 illustrates the ranges of regional contribution in terms of CAPEX (m£) of the four offshore wind farms. It is important to notice that total activities will reach the highest during 2015 and 2018, which correspond to the predicted establishment of manufacturing factories within Humber. Therefore, the highest benefits for the region are expected to occur in this period. A decline from the end of 2018 to 2020 is unavoidable and easily predictable because of project construction reaching the end. However, OPEX contribution (not shown in this graph) is expected to play a significant role in the region given its local nature. Table 25 – Estimated jobs for the Humber & Yorkshire Region Activities
Types of jobs
Humber Gateway
Westermost Rough
Hornsea
Development and consent
Planner; Lawyer; Financial planner; Project manager; Environmental engineer; Meteorologist; Economist; Development manager; Programmer and modeller; Physical engineer; Electrical systems designer
Turbine (excl. Tower)
0
0
450 to 826
900 to 1653
Onsite technician; Electrical engineer; Turbine specialist engineer; Mechanical engineer; Quality assurance; Chemical engineer; Test technician
0 to 20
0 to 5
554 to 1663
841 to 2522
Balance of plant
Construction worker; Welder; Metal worker; Machinist; Semi and non skilled worker; Materials engineer; Skilled assembler
0 to 98
61 to 126
648 to 1326
983 to 2011
Installation and commissioning
Electrical engineer; Marine engineer; Tower erector; Crane operator; Health and safety manager; Specialist shipping and port personnel
17 to 41
54 to 135
265 to 656
354 to 876
Operations and maintenance
Sea and air transport personnel; Power generation engineer; Energy trader; Electrical engineer
48 to 58
52 to 63
871 to 1056
1568 to 1901
65 to 217
167 to 329
2788 to 5527
4646 to 8963
Total for the region (breakdown) Total for the region
Dogger Bank (Tranche A&B)
7666 to 15036
45 | 84
Table 25 summarises the estimated jobs for the Yorkshire & Humber Region. Skill requirements and therefore job opportunities in offshore wind industry vary greatly, from skilled craft people to scientists, pilots, managers and/or technicians. Development and consent phase requires both graduate and non-graduate roles such as the development manager which usually leads the whole process and usually holds a relevant engineering degree (Crown Estate, 2010) or an onsite technician that is required to possess a suitable GCSEs or equivalent. Whereas the turbine manufacturing phase requires both high quality control skills suitable for blade production team leaders and sales skills suitable for technical sales managers. Moreover, project managers with outstanding organisational capabilities are required during wind farm installation and construction whereas skilled wind turbine technicians are required during the O&M phase. As summarised in Table 25, the total jobs due to the following four wind farms are estimated to range from 7,666-15,036. It is important to note that jobs associated with manufacturing of turbines and balance of plants can be sustainable only when a strong cluster of manufacturers and suppliers is built within the region. The operations and maintenance jobs are expected to stay beyond 2020.
SWOT analysis Table 26 summarizes the SWOT analysis of the H&Y region in building a sustainable manufacturing base for offshore wind turbines. While there are some strengths and opportunities, the lack of skills and investment are among the critical weaknesses to be addressed. Delays due to unclear energy policies and consent approval could seriously distort the economic projections and job prospects highlighted in this report. Table 26 – SWOT analysis Strengths
Weaknesses
Green Port & Siemens factory Logistics Institute Alexandra dock characteristics (quay length: 4,082 m; water depth: 8.3 m; accepted vessels: 9000 dwt; Dry dock 1: 139 m; Dry dock 2: 153 m) Proximity to the wind farms
Shortage of engineers & skills Lack of investment and funding Business Inertia Lengthy and cost incentive licensing procedures Installation and service vessel availability Lack of project visibility
Opportunities
Threat
RGF/EU funding to support business & develop skills Develop a centre for the Offshore Wind Energy Industry Integration of the maritime economy with Offshore Wind Industry
Unclear energy policy deters investment Delays of consent approval Administrative procedure could reduce economic viability of projects
Assessment of the ten tenets of sustainability for the proposed construction and installation of four offshore wind farms Table 27 summarizes the assessment of the ten tenets for the proposed four wind farms (see WP5 for a discussion about the ten tenets). Scores for the development and management measurement for some of the key tenets are provided, based on the assessment below. •
Ecological sustainability: Different impacts on the environment are identified: impacts on marine mammals (mortality through collision with increased boat traffic; leaving area due to disturbance; noise damage; disruption of normal behaviour), on fish (electromagnetic fields, habitat loss, alteration of species composition; increased turbidity), and on birds (mortality through collision, mortality through disruption of feeding grounds, disruption of migration routes). On the other hand it should be noted that wind energy is unlimited (unlike fossil fuels), non-polluting and safe
46 | 84
•
•
•
•
•
(Wilson, 2007). Moreover, eventual environmental disruptions are almost site-specific and temporary (Development score: 7). On the other hand habitat recreation (creation of seabed/surface area, creation of water column, creation of air space) is a valid compensation scheme, and if supported by specific characteristics of implementation (providing shelters acting as a fish aggregating device, installation in areas with low levels of bird movements, and away from conservation zones, etc.) positive effects can be greatly enhanced. Similar methods have been used in the past and tested on similar offshore structures (oil rig platforms) in similar environmental circumstances. Moreover, costs related to site preparation are capital and require little maintenance (Management measurement score: 7). Social desirability: There is a general perception that an offshore wind farm is less constrained by social acceptance (Soderholm et al., 2007, Ladenburg, 2010) because visual impacts and noise problems, if sufficiently distant from the coast are minimised. Although Haggett (2012) concludes that offshore sites are not simply and automatically preferred to onshore sites, approval rates for offshore wind farms have been around 90% with consenting periods of 22 months compared to 51% approval and 20-52 months consenting for onshore 23. Further, offshore wind is generally seen as a unrepeatable opportunity to achieve an increase in jobs and investments (see Section 1) in an region (Yorkshire & Humber) where the unemployment rate is among the highest of the English regions at 9.9% compared with a UK average of 8.4% (May 2012) 24. It seems plausible to confirm that the development of the proposed offshore wind farms (Development score: 8) and relative measures for habitat recreation (Management measure score: 10) would be considered positively by the local population, although eventual public inquiries resulting in consenting delays should be taken into account. Ethical defensibility: Offshore wind power, like other renewable sources of energy, offers security against energy shortcomings from other sources and is clean, domestic, carbon dioxide emission free and does not contribute to climate change. Moreover, it is capable of generating remarkable allied industries and activities both at regional and national level. Therefore, it is not an exaggeration to assume a high ethical defensibility value (Development score: 8). Cultural Inclusivity: Site selection undertaken by the Crown Estate is based on a zonal approach (awarded to one development partner) and the cumulative impact is calibrated on an ongoing basis engaging holistically with stakeholders. Moreover, a Marine Resource System (MaRS) model is used as a robust, transparent and rational approach to site selection (Lawrence, 2009) and is capable of identifying and resolving eventual planning conflicts and assessing the suitability of sites for specific projects by identifying areas of opportunity and constraint, detecting how different activities would interact in a particular area (Crown Estate, 2011). It is therefore clear that cultural traditions and local needs are taken into account before a final decision is taken. It is also true that, given the numerous variables and interests involved, changes although minimal, should be considered unavoidable (Development core: 8). Effective Communicability: Relevant documentation and updates are posted on the industrial consortia websites (who are developing the proposed offshore wind farms), and local media, especially newspapers, constantly disseminate updates. Moreover public consultations have been undertaken to ensure not only social acceptability but also effective communication and wide public participation. Therefore a high compliance is suggested (Management measurement and Development scores: 8). Political Expedience: National and local political commitment is clear and deliberate support to the development of offshore wind farms is being pursued. (Management measurement and Development scores: 8).
23 approval rates in the year to 2011 (Crown Estate, 2012) 24 http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/regional-trends/region-and-country-profiles/economy---may2012/economy---yorkshire-and-the-humber--may-2012.html
47 | 84
Table 27 – Assessment of compliance of development and management measures against the ten tenets
Development
Management measure (environmental)
7
7
Technological feasibility
n/a
10
Economic viability
Tenet Ecologically sustainability
n/a
8
Social desirability/tolerance
8
10
Ethical defensibility (moral correctness)
8
10
Cultural inclusivity
8
9
Legal permissibility
n/a
10
Administrative achievability
n/a
10
Effective communicability
8
8
Political expedience
8
8
Recommendations In order to realise the significant economic and employment effects highlighted owing to the proposed construction of the four wind farms, this report suggests the following actions. •
•
•
•
Acquire funding to establish a centre for offshore wind (or innovation centre) to provide business support, training and conduct research and development (R&D). Local enterprises will not be able to participate in wind farms project unless they receive adequate training and business support, as well as backup in R&D from the region. A centre for offshore wind (or innovation centre) will be required for local enterprises to build up their capability and creditability. Attract investment and establish a supplier base for offshore wind turbine and plant manufacturing in the region and help Humber enterprises to establish joint ventures (JV) with foreign firms. As highlighted above, more manufacturing jobs could be created if more local enterprises are capable of supplying components to the 1st or 2nd tier suppliers or foreign investment are investing in the region. Further, such jobs cannot be sustainable unless a strong cluster of manufacturer and supplier base can be built here. Overcome skill shortages by establishing, consolidating and providing training in offshore installation, O&M and marine services as well as manufacturing. Even though at present there is some training available (marine related training), there is a need to strengthen training provisions in engineering, manufacturing, supply chain, logistics, and complex project management. Establish funding schemes for SMEs in the region for them to qualify as sub-suppliers. The lack of funding means SMEs might miss out a lot of opportunities. There is a lot of funding available (especially EU) for renewable energy related projects, but there is a need for a concerted effort to gather the strengths of various parties in the region to bid for such competitive funding.
Appendix A – key assumptions •
•
CAPEX: calculations are based on level costs of energy (LCOE) of £140/MWh and the capacity factor of 40% for the Humber Gateway and Westermost Rough. For Doggerbank and Hornsea, LCOE of £144/MWh and capacity factor of 42% are assumed due to their longer distance from the assembly port and the sea depth. (Crown Estate, 2012). UK content – High Case Assumptions: To estimate the highest value of UK content, it was assumed that: all components are assembled in UK ports; project development activities are pursued by UK companies; towers, foundations, and other peripheral components such as bolts, lubricants, brackets, etc. are supplied by UK companies except towers for the Westermost Rough
48 | 84
•
•
•
project since they will be supplied by Siemens facilities outside the UK; No UK content in Turbine (excl. towers) manufacturing as regards Humber Gateway and Westermost Rough projects and 30% UK content for Hornsea and Doggerbank projects; Civil constructions, transportation, offshore installations, major connections and cabling are provided by UK companies. UK content – Low Case Assumptions: to estimate the lowest UK content in project development, it was assumed that: A non-UK port is chosen; Development & Consent equal to the high case except for 66% UK content as regards feasibility study and no UK content in project management and outline design; No UK content in procurement and manufacturing for the Humber Gateway and Westermost Rough and 10% of turbine (excl. tower) manufacturing content for the Hornsea and Doggerbank projects; Regarding the construction phase, UK content comprises onshore substation buildings and MEI installations. Yorkshire and Humber content – High case assumptions: a regional port is employed as assembly base; the region has 10% capability in development & consent and 50% in project management; towers, foundations, onshore substation buildings and other components (i.e. bolts, lubricants, etc.) are supplied by the region; Humber Gateway and Westermost Rough adopt imported turbines while as regards Hornsea and Doggerbank the region is assumed to have 30% of capacity to supply turbines; 19% local capacity in transportation and delivery plus 38% in offshore installation are assumed. Yorkshire and Humber content – Low case assumptions: 10% contribution in development & consent and 85% contribution in environmental monitoring are assumed; projects are assumed to be developed not using a UK port; 100% of onshore connections and installations are assumed.
References P. Soderholm, K. Ek, M. Pettersen Wind power deployment in Sweden: global policies and local obstacles, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 11 (2007), pp. 365–400 Claire Haggett, Understanding public responses to offshore wind power, Energy Policy, Volume 39, Issue 2, February 2011, Pages 503-510 Crown Estate, Appendix C: Marine Resource System (MaRS) Modelling and Datasets in “Offshore Transmission Network Feasibility Study”, September 2011 Crown Estate, Offshore Wind Cost Reduction Pathways Study, May 2012 Crown Estate, UK Offshore Wind Report 2012 E.ON Offshore Wind Energy Factbook, December 2011 Lawrence Pete, Round 3 Offshore Wind - Round 3 Progress, What’s next? and Key Challenges, January 2009 Renewable Energy Association & Innovas, Renewable Energy: Made in Britain. Jobs, turnover and policy framework by technology (2012 assessment) Wilson, Jennifer Claire, Offshore wind farms: their impacts, and potential habitat gains as artificial reefs, in particular for fish, Degree of MSc In Estuarine and Coastal Science and Management, September 2007 BVG Associates, 2010. Value breakdown for the offshore wind sector: A report commissioned by the Renewable Advisory Board. Ernst & Young, 2009. Cost of and financial support for offshore wind, a report for the Department of Energy and Climate Change EWEA, 2009. Wind at Work: Wind energy and job creation in the EU
49 | 84
50 | 84
WP4: Other renewable energy Dan Humphreys and Dr James Gilbert Department of Engineering, Faculty of Science
Introduction The aim of this work package was to report on the current and future renewable energy activities in the Humberside region for technologies other than offshore wind and provide estimates for the economic size, scope and timescales for future growth in these technologies. The aim was split into the following objectives. • • •
Undertake a review of related literature in the area. Interview a sample of companies in the Humber region to determine example and indicative future growth scenarios in terms of renewable energy capacity, turnover and employment. Compose strength, weakness, opportunity and threat (SWOT) tables for each of the considered renewable technologies.
Analysis methodology The following describes the analysis procedure followed. • • • • •
Establish baseline estimates of current generation capacity, revenue and employment in the renewable sector in the Humberside area in relation to national targets. Interview (semi-structured) a sample of local companies involved with renewable technologies to determine actual growth areas and figures. Compile company information into indicative growth scenarios across the Humberside area Compare growth projections with national targets. Complete SWOT tables using information gleaned from company interviews and a literature search.
According to the DECC Renewable Energy Statistics Database 25 at June 2012 there were a total of 81MW of installed and operating renewable energy projects across the Humberside region and an additional 785MW of proposed renewable energy projects which were listed as either awaiting or under construction. All of the projects which were listed as awaiting or under construction were considered for this analysis along with a list of additional companies/projects which were known to be involved locally in the renewable energy sector. A list of those considered for this study is shown in Table 26 along with a status indicating whether the company/project information was included in the data for analysis and where the data source originated. Data gathered was primarily in the form of estimates around capacity growth, increased revenue and employment opportunities and was collected through a number of means including interviews, websites and documentation, and also based on assumptions derived from similar projects. The primary research was carried out in June/July 2012.
25
https://restats.decc.gov.uk/
51 | 84
Table 26 – Companies and projects considered Company
Technology
Status
Vivergo
Biofuels
Excluded
Spencers
Gasification and biomass handling
Interviewed
Ideal Heating
Photovoltaics
Interviewed
Pulse
Tidal & Hydro
Interviewed
Enertek
Engineering consultancy
No response from company
Drax
Biomass
Interviewed
Smartwind
Offshore Wind
Excluded
Refood
Anaerobic Digestion
No response from company
Point Engineering
Engineering consultancy
Excluded
Brigg Renewable Energy Plant (Re-submission)
Biomass
Website
Tesco Distribution Centre, Goole
Biomass
ERYC planning document
Drax Heron Renewable Energy Park
Biomass
Interviewed
Game Slack Farm
Biomass
Excluded
Stallingborough Alpha
Biomass
Interviewed
Tansterne Straw-Burning Power Station
Biomass
Interviewed
Reality Energy Centre, Immingham
Biomass
Website
Melton Energy from Waste Plant (ACT pyrolysis)
Municipal and industrial waste
Excluded
Brigg Energy Resource Centre
Municipal and industrial waste
Excluded
Kilnwick Wood House
Photovoltaics
Excluded
Carnaby
Wind onshore
Assumed jobs and value
Tedder Hill Wind cluster
Wind onshore
Assumed jobs and value
Manor House Farm
Wind onshore
Assumed jobs and value
Keadby Wind Farm
Wind onshore
Assumed jobs and value
Hall Farm
Wind onshore
Assumed jobs and value
Sancton Hill - Resubmission
Wind onshore
Assumed jobs and value
Burton Fleming Grange
Wind onshore
Assumed jobs and value
Spaldington Airfield
Wind onshore
Assumed jobs and value
Tesco Cleethorpes
Wind onshore
Assumed jobs and value
Wallis Grange
Wind onshore
Assumed jobs and value
Goole Fields
Wind onshore
Assumed jobs and value
Sober Hill Wind Farm (Resubmission)
Wind onshore
Assumed jobs and value
Wadworth Hill Wind Farm
Wind onshore
Assumed jobs and value
Hull College
Wind onshore
Assumed jobs and value
Mill Garage
Wind onshore
Assumed jobs and value
Sixpenny Wood Windfarm
Wind onshore
Assumed jobs and value
Roos Wind Farm (Resubmission)
Wind onshore
Assumed jobs and value
Withernwick
Wind onshore
Assumed jobs and value
Neptune Proteus
Tidal
Interviewed
52 | 84
Results – capacity, turnover and employment Of all the projects considered, the planned dual fuelling proposal for the Drax site has by far the biggest potential impact in terms of jobs, employment and turnover for the region. As such the following charts include overall trends where Drax figures have been included and those where Drax has been excluded. Figure 8 shows a chart of the predicted growth in energy capacity for the Humber region up to 2020. The dashed red line shows a target growth in capacity based on a 16% year on year increase [4] from an initial figure of 81MW at June 2012 and the grey area shows a ±20% spread about this estimated target growth. This is essentially a prediction of the regional growth if the national 16% target is assumed. The dashed green line shows the predicted growth in energy capacity based on the data gathered across all projects excluding Drax and the dashed black line shows the predicted growth including Drax. The solid green and black lines are exponential trend lines through the dashed green and black lines respectively. On this basis, capacity is estimated to grow at approximately 42% year on year for the region when all projects are included and at 30% year on year if Drax is excluded. Figure 8 – Predicted growth in regional energy capacity
The Yorkshire and Humber DECC Region employs over 6,100 people in nearly 400 companies and generates a turnover over £0.8 billion (2010/2011 figures, [4]). A breakdown of employment in each energy sector is shown in Table 29. From Table 29, the total number of employees working in the Yorkshire and Humber region excluding wind is 4,015 (= 6,125 – 2,110) which represents 66% of the total renewables workforce. Based on a report written by Innovas in June 2008 describing analysis undertaken for Hull Forward [8], the Humberside sub-region accounts for 20% of companies in the Yorkshire and Humber region 23% of regional sales value in the Yorkshire and Humber region 24% of the employment in the Yorkshire and Humber region
53 | 84
Table 27 – Renewables employment in Yorkshire and Humber (at 2010/2011) Energy sector
Yorkshire and Humber employees
Wave and Tidal
45
Hydro
295
Biomass Production
280
Biomass Utilisation
1,570
Solar
1,290
Wind
2,110
Air and Ground Source Heat Pumps
535
Total
6,125
If it is assumed that these figures, which are based on 2008 data, are applicable to the 2010/2011 data in [4] then an estimate can be made of number of companies, sales value and number of employees for Humberside alone which can be seen in Table 30. These estimates are derived from the above splits and also assume that 66% of the renewables companies, sales and workforce are associated with non-wind categories. The resulting figures are pessimistic since they exclude those companies involved with onshore wind technologies. Table 30 - Number of companies, sales value and number of employees for the Yorkshire and Humber DECC Region and equivalent estimated Humberside figures Category Number of companies Sales value Number of employees
Yorkshire and Humber
Factor
Estimated Humberside
400
0.13 (= 0.20 × 0.66)
53
£800m
0.15 (= 0.23 × 0.66)
£121m
6,125
0.16 (= 0.24 × 0.66)
970
Figure 9 – Predicted growth in regional turnover
Figure 9 shows a chart of the predicted growth in turnover for the Humberside region up to 2020. The dashed red line shows a target growth in capacity based on a 16% year on year increase [4] from
54 | 84
an initial figure of £121m at 2010 and the grey area shows a ±20% spread about this estimated target growth. This is essentially a prediction of the regional growth if the national 16% target is assumed. The dashed green line shows the predicted growth in turnover based on the data gathered across all projects excluding Drax and the dashed black line shows the predicted growth including Drax. The solid green and black lines are exponential trend lines through the dashed green and black lines respectively. On this basis, turnover is estimated to grow at approximately 27% year on year for the region when all projects are included and at 11% year on year if Drax is excluded. Figure 10 shows a chart of the predicted growth in employment for the Humberside region up to 2020. The dashed red line shows a target growth in capacity based on a 16% year on year increase [4] from an initial figure of 970 at 2010 and the grey area shows a ±20% spread about this estimated target growth. This is essentially a prediction of the regional growth if the national 16% target is assumed. The dashed green line shows the predicted growth in employment based on the data gathered across all projects excluding Drax and the dashed black line shows the predicted growth including Drax. The solid green and black lines are exponential trend lines through the dashed green and black lines respectively. On this basis, employment is estimated to grow at approximately 20% year on year for the region when all projects are included and at 7% year on year if Drax is excluded. Figure 10 – Predicted growth in regional employment
Table 31 summarises the information shown in the previous charts in both absolute terms and percentage growths. As can be seen – except for employment, excluding Drax – capacity, turnover and employment are estimated to grow by double digit figures year on year. Table 31 – Estimated growth Including Drax
Excluding Drax
2011
2020
Growth
2011
2020
Growth
Capacity [MW]
81
∼3000
∼2920
81
∼600
∼520
Turnover [£m]
121
∼1320
∼1200
121
∼280
∼160
1200
∼5400
∼4200
1200
∼1800
∼600
Measure
Employment
55 | 84
Measure
Including Drax
Excluding Drax
National aim
Capacity
42%
30%
16%
Turnover
27%
11%
16%
Employment
20%
7%
16%
Results – SWOT tables Figures 11–14, show the SWOT tables generated from the literature and company discussions. Figures are for biomass, gasification, tidal power and cross technology respectively. Figure 11 – Biomass SWOT table
Figure 12 – Gasification SWOT table
56 | 84
Figure 13 – Tidal power SWOT table
Figure 14 – Cross technology – SWOT table
Conclusions • • • •
Capacity, employment and turnover have been estimated in the Humber area for renewable technologies (excluding offshore wind). All previous analysis is subjective and are at best rough estimates. Drax (co-firing existing plant and plans for new site) has a significant effect on capacity production, turnover and employment in the Humber area and is by far the biggest opportunity. SWOT Analysis has been undertaken for biomass, tidal power and gasification.
57 | 84
• •
Based on small number of interviews with local companies double digit growth is estimated if all current projects discussed go ahead. Areas for further work have been identified.
Appendix A –Assumptions and caveats • • • • • • • •
Data is based on discussions with a sample of local companies involved with renewable energies and may not be representative or indicative of the whole population. Data is subjective and should only be considered rough estimates or indicative at best. Definition of “employment” may differ between companies. Definition of “turnover/sales value” may differ between companies. Projections assume that all projects listed in Table 26 go ahead. An average “turnover per employee” has been assumed. Percentage of total supply chain figures used for Drax employment numbers has been assumed. The data presented is based on company expectations in June/July 2012 and may no longer be current.
References Research Proposal: The Humber’s Future Economic and Sustainable Development, University of Hull. [Research Proposal Future economic landscape 26March2012V7.docx] Spreadsheet showing local authority (district/unitary) areas covered by LEPs. [12-p113b-localauthority-areas-covered-by-leps.xls, http://www.bis.gov.uk/policies/economicdevelopment/leps/statistics] http://gires.org.uk/tranzwiki/index.php/Humberside_Police Renewable energy: Made in Britain. Jobs, turnover and policy framework by technology (2012 assessment). Renewable Energy Association. Hull Citybuild, Competitive Assessment, IBM-PLI Perspective on Hull. IBM Global Business Services, Plant Location International. August 2006. [IBM_2006_Hull_Citybuild-Final_ReportAugust_28[1].pdf] Hull Economic Development Action Plan. International Economic Development Council. January 2007. [IEDC_(following_IBM)_2007_Hull_Report_Final[1].pdf] Renewable energy potential and energy efficiency in new developments. Hull City Council. July 2010. [FINAL REPORT_HULL LC and RE in new developments[1].pdf] Renewable Energy Study, Hull and Humber Ports City Region, Final Report. Innovas. June 2008. [HULL CITY REGION RENEWABLE ENERGY STUDY FINAL REPORT.pdf]
58 | 84
WP5: Sustainability in environmental management Steve Barnard and Professor Mike Elliott Institute of Estuarine & Coastal Studies, University of Hull
Introduction The main aim in estuarine and marine environmental management is to ensure that the natural system is maintained and protected while at the same time delivering benefits for society (Elliott, 2011; Elliott & Whitfield, 2011). Hence in an area such as the Humber which is internationally designated for the importance of its wildlife, especially its estuarine habitats and bird and fish populations, then economic development has to occur while ensuring that such features are not adversely affected; the latter would lead to a breach of European legislation. Accordingly, a central issue being addressed by planners is one of how economic development can be maximised, within the constraints of environmental sustainability. Such ‘sustainable development’ has been regarded essentially as a contradiction in terms, between the opposing imperatives of growth and development, on the one hand, and ecological (and perhaps social and economic) sustainability on the other (e.g. Redclift, 2005). Sustainability has been defined in many ways but most notably as that from Our Common Future, also known as the Brundtland Report (World Commission on Environment and Development, 1987): “Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs”. If it is accepted as axiomatic that it is not possible to have economic development that is truly environmentally sustainable then it is necessary to identify what options exist for economic development and what might be the likely associated impacts on sustainability (see Robinson, 2004). Hence, the effective goal of the planning process becomes to maximise the potential gain from economic development, whilst having due regard to environmental sustainability. Consequently, planners need to tackle the question of what development path can be pursued in a given area so that the area’s resources are used efficiently, its environment is protected and its economic welfare is promoted in a socially equitable way (Briassoulis, 1999; Gasparatos et al., 2008). This is especially the case in estuaries which are designated as European Marine Areas because of their high nature conservation importance. In addition to maintaining and protecting the natural system, any development and environmental management has to take account of many other aspects – the economics of action or inaction, the technologies to achieve an outcome, the governance (legal and administrative framework), society’s wishes and nature and the political environment. Previously these have been summarised as a set of ‘10-tenets’ for sustainable management which were expanded from the the earlier 7-tenets because of the increase complexity of environmental management (Elliott and Cutts, 2004; Mee et al., 2008; Atkins et al, 2011; Elliott et al, submitted). The 10-tenets for successful and sustainable environmental management provide a means of defining the main considerations in addressing such questions of sustainable management and encompassing all stakeholders and the current regulatory framework. The methods for applying the 10-tenets are still under development, but a preliminary analysis is provided here of them in relation to the sustainability of the proposed development of Green Port Hull.
10-tenets for Humber sustainable development The three basic principles of sustainable development, that development should be economically viable, technologically feasible and environmentally sustainable, have been embedded within 59 | 84
national and international strategies for many years. In recent years, these three principles have been augmented by a further seven considerations to give rise to the 10-tenets of sustainable management (Table 32). By fulfilling the tenets, it is aimed that the management of, and solution to, an environmental problem will be sustainable and not environmentally deleterious, but within what is possible in the real world, taking note of the socio-economic and governance aspects (Elliott and Cutts, 2004). Also, and in addition to achieving sustainability, fulfilling the 10-tenets would mean that the environmental management would potentially be seen by wider society as achieving sustainability (e.g. it would become more visible and communicable) and so in turn would be more likely to be accepted, encouraged and successful. Table 32 The 10-tenets for successful and sustainable environmental management. Environmental management should be: Socially desirable/tolerable (1)
Environmental management measures are as required or at least are understood and tolerated by society as being required; that society regards the protection as necessary
Ecologically sustainable (1)
Measures will ensure that the ecosystem features and functioning and the fundamental and final ecosystem services are safeguarded
Economically viable (1)
A cost-benefit assessment of the environmental (economic/financial) viability and sustainability
Technologically feasible (2)
The methods, techniques and equipment for ecosystem and society/infrastructure protection are available
Legally permissible (2)
There are regional, national or international agreements and/or statutes which will enable and/or force the management measures to be performed
Administratively achievable (2)
The statutory bodies such as governmental departments, environmental protection and conservation bodies are in place and functioning to enable successful and sustainable management
Politically expedient (3)
The management approaches and philosophies are consistent with the prevailing political climate and have the support of political leaders
Culturally inclusive (4)
Local customs and practices are protected and respected
Ethically defensible (morally correct) (4)
The wishes and practices of individuals are respected in decision-making
Effectively communicable (4)
All horizontal links and vertical hierarchies of governance are accommodated and decision-making is inclusive
management
indicates
(1)
original three basic tenets for environment management - the three dimensions of sustainability
(2)
incorporated within the ‘six tenets for successful and sustainable environmental management’ (Elliott, 2002)
(3)
incorporated within the ‘seven tenets for successful and sustainable environmental management’ (Elliott et al., 2006) (4) incorporated within the ‘10-tenets for successful and sustainable environmental management’ (Elliott, Cutts & Trono, submitted).
Economic development (for example port expansion or redevelopment along an estuary) will invariably increase environmental pressure, some of which will be ameliorated through specific management actions. For example, increasing port area will cause the loss of estuarine habitats such as mudflats or salt marshes or disturb overwintering wading birds or fishes such as eels and salmon migrating between the sea and the catchment. Such relationships between society’s impacts on the environment, and responses to such impacts, can be formalised through the development of a systems-based approach, DPSIR (Atkins et al., 2011). In essence, the DPSIR framework (Figure 15) encompasses Drivers, which are the key demands by society (for example a desire for economic growth) and which are responsible for creating Pressures
60 | 84
(for example a proposed port development and the associated changes such as loss of habitat, influences on water quality, stressors such as noise or light pollution, etc.). Such Pressures in turn give rise to State Changes in the environment, such as a loss of habitat and ecological structure and functioning. If these adverse changes are not addressed then they lead to Impacts on the human use of ecosystems and on the societal benefits provided by ecosystem services (see Atkins et al., 2011), for example a loss of habitats such as salt marshes which may store carbon and the loss of fish populations which may later be taken as food. In order to prevent or remedy these adverse changes then requires a Response by society, such as economic instruments or legal constraints. Hence the DPSIR approach gives the framework for defining and tackling environmental problems. Figure 15 Basis of DPSIR elements
Simplified DPSIR framework
Drivers: Socioeconomics - societal demands, business demands, etc.
D P
R S
Basis of DPSIR elements
I
Pressures & Responses: Human interaction with the environment
State changes & Impacts: Effects upon, and changes within, the receiving environment (or societal services)
It should be noted that, in terms of their relationships, the Pressures, State changes and Impacts that are linked to any one single Driver may be linked to those Pressures, State Changes and Impacts emanating from other Drivers (Atkins et al, 2011). For example, changes to habitats from port and navigation activity are also linked to those from industrial, urban and agricultural inputs both around the estuary and in the catchment (McLusky and Elliott, 2004). Even if we simplify our analysis by considering just the relationships from the Pressures level and below, it is likely that, for anything but the simplest of systems, there is the need to consider overlapping State changes, Impacts & Responses (cf Atkins et al., 2011). Pressures likely to produce change in the marine environment can be separated into two types: endogenic managed pressures and exogenic unmanaged pressures (Elliott, 2011). Endogenic managed pressures arise where the causes of potential adverse effects come from within the system and management at the local, regional and/or international scale can respond to both the causes and consequences of these pressures. For example, the building of a new port, a power plant, and shoreline development and any associated coastal squeeze. In contrast, exogenic unmanaged pressures represent causes of change that arise from outside of the system being managed (e.g. the
61 | 84
estuary) and which cannot be managed from within the system, limiting the human response solely to addressing the consequences rather than the causes of the pressure; such pressures include changes in relative sea level due to isostatic rebound and climate modifications, and changes in water delivery and pollutants from the catchment. Finally, it is of note that many natural functional characteristics of estuaries are dependent on their connectivity with the adjacent freshwater catchment, terrestrial areas and the sea (Elliott and Whitfield, 2011). For example, large populations of overwintering birds are dependent on the organic matter inputs as food for their prey and on breeding success elsewhere. Similarly, maintaining estuarine migratory fish populations of salmon and eels depends on their development both in freshwater and at sea. Hence, as a consequence of their interdependent nature, when considering the sustainability of developments within estuaries we have to be concerned not only with developments in the estuary themselves but also with the interactions between such developments and with developments both at sea and within the catchment. As originally presented and discussed (e.g. Elliott et al., submitted) the 10-tenets relate to actions or management measures. That is, human Responses include a set of tools that are available for managing systems and so may be regarded as having to meet the tenets for environmental management (Atkins et al., 2011). However, considering the DPSIR approach (Figure 15) whilst State changes and Impacts together represent the receiving environment, direct human interaction with the environment is represented not just by Responses but also by Pressures. As the proposed tenets for sustainable management apply as much to society and the economy as to the natural environment (perhaps even more so) then we cannot restrict assessment solely to the natural environmental aspects of the pressures (i.e. the management measures introduced in response to the State changes) but also to the human consequences (i.e. the Impacts). Consequently it is not just management (i.e. the Responses) that should be considered when assessing sustainability through the application of the 10-tenets but also those activities (for example estuarine port developments) that are represented by the Pressures.
Application of the ten tenets In order to move from a set of concepts to a practical application of these to aid estuarine management, a quantitative scoring system has been developed. This allows assessing each tenet against a common scale from minimal to full compliance; this normalisation removes the potential problem of mixed metrics or different scales adversely influencing, or skewing, any subsequent assessment. Definition of minimal and full compliance in ‘absolute’ terms for each tenet (i.e. not solely related to the specific geographic area under consideration) allows for subsequent comparisons to be made, not only between different activities within one area but also between activities in different geographic areas. Suggested fixed points, representing minimal and full compliance with each tenet, have been identified. Using these scales an assessment against the 10-tenets has been carried out on a demonstration case, the proposed development of Green Port Hull on the site of the former Queen Alexandra Dock (Port of Hull, Humber Estuary, UK). This development involves the demolition of existing buildings at Alexandra Dock for use as a facility for the manufacture, assembly, storage, handling and testing of wind turbine components for the offshore power industry. The Alexandra Dock site is currently used for cargo storage and handling. The output from this assessment (Table 33) shows how the proposed development and likely management measures address the 10-tenets, and allows for the development of a pair of composite indicators representing the overall environmental sustainability of the development and associated measures.
62 | 84
Table 33 Assessment of compliance against the 10-tenets for GPH development and likely associated management measures Development (Pressure)
Management measures (Response)
7
6
Technological feasibility
n/a
10
Economic viability
n/a
7
Social desirability/tolerance
8
7
Ethical defensibility (moral correctness)
7
10
Cultural inclusivity
7
9
Tenet Ecologically sustainability
Legal permissibility
n/a
10
Administrative achievability
n/a
10
7
8
10
9
Effective communicability Political expedience
These data in turn are reproduced as a ‘sustainability plot’ (Figure 16) to indicate the level of compliance with each of the tenets. The sustainability plot for the proposed development at Green Port Hull indicates that the development itself shows a reasonably good compliance with the six tenets relevant to the ‘Pressure’ (the yellow areas) and good compliance with most of the 10-tenets as applied to the ‘Response’ (the blue areas). The shortcomings for the response (i.e. where the blue area of the diagram is ‘squeezed in’) are associated mainly with the measures’ ecological sustainability, social desirability and economic viability. That is, whilst the development itself (the ‘Pressure’) generally satisfies six of the tenets for sustainability, measures that are likely to be put in place by way of ‘Response’ may not be fully supported by all sectors of society (for example displacement due to the development of compensation schemes may not be acceptable to current users of the environment), and may not be ecologically sustainable (due to a possible loss of habitat) or economically viable in the long term, suggesting that the benefits that they are intended to bring about may only be short-lived. Subsequently, composite indicators (or ‘sustainability scores’), combining information from all of the tenets, were derived for the proposed development. These sustainability scores were provisionally estimated as 69% (for the development itself) and 85% (for the likely environmental management measures that would be associated with the development). Although such scores need to be compared to those from other developments or projects, they indicate that, whilst there may be some shortcomings regarding the development as a whole, the management measures that are likely to be implemented by way of response appear to be more sustainable.
Recommendations for further work •
• • •
To provide additional examples of estimated sustainability of other proposed or potential elements of the Humber economic development and then use these to assist policy-makers and local authorities to incorporate an assessment of sustainability into their decision-making process. To develop a decision support system to help the user to identify possible (Response) management measures for specific development types (Pressures). To refine the tenet scoring criteria and (with stakeholders) to develop tenet weightings. To develop further graphical outputs (to help communication) and embed the system within a wider decision support system for implementing weightings, assessments and analyses.
63 | 84
Figure 16 Sustainability plot for proposed development at Green Port Hull
References Atkins, J.P., Burdon, D., Elliott, M. and Gregory, A.J. (2011) Management of the marine environment: Integrating ecosystem services and societal benefits with the DPSIR framework in a systems approach, Marine Pollution Bulletin, 62(2), 215-226. Briassoulis, H. (1999) Who plans whose sustainability? Alternative roles for planners, Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, 42, 889–902. Elliott, M. (2002) The role of the DPSIR approach and conceptual models in marine environmental management: an example for offshore wind power, Marine Pollution Bulletin, 44(6), iii–vii. Elliott, M. (2011) Marine science and management means tackling exogenic unmanaged pressures and endogenic managed pressures- a numbered guide, Marine Pollution Bulletin, 62, 651-655. Elliott, M. and Cutts, N.D. (2004) Marine habitats: loss and gain, mitigation and compensation, Marine Pollution Bulletin, 49, 671-674. Elliott, M., Boyes, S.J. and Burdon, D. (2006) Integrated marine management and administration for an island state—the case for a new Marine Agency for the UK, Marine Pollution Bulletin, 52(5), 469474. Elliott, M., Cutts, N.D. and Trono, A. (submitted) A typology for hazards and risks as vectors of change and the implications for integrated coastal management. Ocean & Coastal Management.
64 | 84
Elliott, M. and Whitfield, A. (2011) Challenging paradigms in estuarine ecology and management, Estuarine, Coastal & Shelf Science, 94, 306-314. Gasparatos, A., El-Haram, M. and Horner, M. (2008) A critical review of reductionist approaches for assessing the progress towards sustainability, Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 28, 286– 311. McLusky, D.S. and Elliott, M. (2004) The Estuarine Ecosystem; ecology, threats and management, 3rd edn., Oxford University Press, Oxford. 216pp. Mee, L.D., Jefferson, R.L., Laffoley, D.d’A. and Elliott, M. (2008) How good is good? Human values and Europe’s proposed Marine Strategy Directive, Marine Pollution Bulletin, 56, 187-204. Redclift, M. (2005) Sustainable development (1987–2005): an oxymoron comes of age, Sustainable Development, 13(4), 212–227. Robinson, J. (2004) Squaring the circle? Some thoughts on the idea of sustainable development, Ecological Economics, 48, 369– 384. World Commission on Environment and Development, WCED (1987) Our common future. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
65 | 84
66 | 84
WP6: The future economic landscape (to 2025) for the economic performance of the Humber sub-region. Dr Jonathan P Atkins, Roland Getor, Dr Michael A Nolan and Dawid Trzeciakiewicz Centre for Economic Policy, Hull University Business School
WP6 explores the future landscape (to 2025) for the economic performance of the Humber subregion informed by the conditions, opportunities and challenges identified in work packages 1-5. Emphasis will be given to demographic change, employment trends and their sectoral and spatial distribution, and the outlook for the renewable energy sector. The future of the Humber sub-region (or Hull and Humber Ports City Region) is the focus of this report. Here, the future landscape for the economic performance of the Humber sub-region is explored through to 2025. While the study is informed by the conditions, opportunities and challenges identified in work packages 2-5, in particular, it builds on work package 1 with attention given to the demographic future, employment trends, and the outlook for the renewable energy sector. In the case of demographic future, ONS Annual Population Survey projections provide the basis for the reported evidence. In the case of employment trends, the base and shift-share performance analysis is extended to provide the basis for a set of forecasts which explore sectoral and spatial employment distributions over the forecast period under a range of scenarios. It should be noted that while this analysis is necessarily statistical in nature, it does not attempt to match the econometric sophistication associated with the ‘Regional Econometric Model’, developed by Experian in association with the former Yorkshire Forward, which until the demise of Yorkshire Forward in 2011 was frequently used for forecasting purposes. Finally, in the case of the outlook for the renewable energy sector, reliance is placed on evidence contained in the AECOM (2011) report ‘Low Carbon and Renewable Energy Capacity in Yorkshire and Humber’.
Demographic change Sub-national population projections for the region provide estimates of the future population of the sub-region assuming a continuation of recent trends in fertility, mortality and migration. Generally, it is projected that the percentage population growth of the Humber sub-region will fall over the period 2010-2025 (Figure 17). In averaging around 0.45% per annum, the sub-regional growth will be at a lower rate than either Yorkshire and the Humber as a whole (0.6%), or England (0.75%) 26.
26
These projections are based on figures in existence before the 2011 Census figures were released. Thus, they may understate the true picture since actual population as gone up.
67 | 84
Figure 17: Population projections based on mid-year estimates, 2010-2025.
1.00 0.90
Annual growth rate
0.80 0.70
East Riding
0.60
Kingston upon Hull
0.50
North East Lincolnshire
0.40
North Lincolnshire
0.30
Humber
0.20
Yorkshire and the Humber England
0.10 2024-25
2023-24
2022-23
2021-22
2020-21
2019-20
2018-19
2017-18
2016-17
2015-16
2014-15
2013-14
2012-13
2011-12
2010-11
0.00
Year Source: ONS
Projected figures for working age population 27 (Figure 18) show a rising growth rate in this group from 2011-12 to around 2019-20 when it is expected to peak, in accordance with the revised provisions to increase the State Pension age to reach 66 (for men and women) by 2020 (see DWP (2011)). The growth rate of the working age group is then expected to fall back rapidly in 2020-21, after which it may begin to recover. Unsurprisingly, given the national coverage of the pension legislation, these trends are broadly consistent across the Humber sub-region, Yorkshire and the Humber, and England. This could have serious consequences for the local and national economy, if there are inadequate numbers of jobs available to match potential growth in the labour force. Of course, although relevant trends in the fertility rate governing entry to working age during the period to 2025 are largely known already, these may readily exhibit more spatial variation.
27
These projections are based on the Pensions Acts of 2011.
68 | 84
Figure 18 : Projected year-to-year changes in working age population.
1.400 East Riding 1.200 Kingston upon Hull North East Lincolnshire
0.800
North Lincolnshire
0.600
Humber
0.400
Yorkshire and the Humber
0.200
England
-0.400
2024-25
2023-24
2022-23
2021-22
2020-21
2019-20
2018-19
2017-18
2016-17
2015-16
2014-15
2013-14
2012-13
-0.200
2011-12
0.000 2010-11
Annual Percentage change
1.000
Year
Source: ONS
Employment forecasting: sectoral and spatial distribution In this section, forecasts of employment to 2025 are presented based primarily on the well known shift share method outlined below. The method itself relies on a number of significant assumptions, changes in which might alter the forecasts substantially. In addition, there are a number of issues associated with the underlying employment data, and these can be addressed in a variety of ways. Since these data are used to calculate trends on which the forecasts are subsequently based, alternative approaches to addressing the data issues might lead to the generation of a rather wide range of forecasts. The constant share method The constant share method of employment forecasting assumes that the employment growth rates in local groups of industries are the same as the ones in the larger benchmark area. Consequently, if employment in the construction industry is projected to increase by 10% in the UK, then in each of analysed regions employment in the construction industry is assumed to increase by 10%. This assumption implies that the local share of industry i in its national aggregate remains constant over the projected period of time. For instance, if Hull’s construction industry constitutes one per cent of the UK’s in 2010, then this share will remain constant and will be still equal to one per cent in 2020. The formula used for these calculations takes the form: 𝑖 𝐸𝑡′𝑖 = 𝐸𝑡𝑖 (1 + 𝑅𝑡−𝑡′ )
Where 𝐸𝑡′𝑖 denotes forecasted local employment at time t’; 𝐸𝑡𝑖 represents local employment in industry
𝑖 = i at time t; and 𝑅𝑡−𝑡′
𝐵,𝑖 𝐸𝑡′ −𝐸𝑡𝐵,𝑖
𝐸𝑡𝐵,𝑖
stands for the forecasted employment growth rate in the benchmark
69 | 84
area for the period between t and t’; 𝐸𝑡′𝐵,𝑖 denotes benchmark area employment at time t’ and 𝐸𝑡𝐵,𝑖 stands for the larger area employment at time t. The shift share method The shift share method (SS) is an extension of the constant share method (CS). It relaxes the assumption of the CS method regarding the same employment growth rates over the projected period in the local and national industry. This is achieved by incorporating the shift term, which reflects the part of employment growth rate stemming from local conditions. The shift term is calculated on the basis of historical data (Chapin (2003)): 𝑖 𝑖 𝑖 𝑆𝑡−𝑡′ = 𝑟𝑡−𝑡′ − 𝑅𝑡−𝑡′
ℎ,𝑖 ℎ,𝑖 denotes past local area employment growth rate for industry i for the period t-t’; 𝑅𝑡−𝑡′ where 𝑟𝑡−𝑡′
𝑖 represents the past benchmark area’s employment growth rate for the period t-t’; and 𝑆𝑡−𝑡′ stands for the shift term.
For example, if forecasted employment growth for manufacturing industry in the UK in the period 2010-2025 is 10% and the growth rate in manufacturing industry in Hull in the past 15 years was 5% higher than in the UK, then SS analysis adjusts the local forecast employment growth by the historic 5 percent shift term. Consequently, the share of manufacturing in its national aggregate no longer remains constant over the projected period of time. The formula used for the employment forecast in the SS analysis is given by: 𝑖 𝑖 𝐸𝑡′𝑖 = 𝐸𝑡𝑖 (1 + 𝑅𝑡−𝑡′ + 𝑆𝑡−𝑡′ )
𝑖 𝑖 where 𝐸𝑡′𝑖 ; 𝐸𝑡𝑖 , 𝑅𝑡−𝑡′ , 𝑆𝑡−𝑡′ possess the same meaning as above.
Data used The UK employment forecasts for 11 industries are constructed from the employment forecasts for 22 groups of industries in Homenidou and Wilson (2012). See Tables 34 and 35, in the appendix to our report, for information about how the 22 industry groups are composed into 11 categories. Sectoral employment levels, for the LA areas of the Humber sub-region, are taken from the Annual Business Inquiry (ABI) employee data for the years 1998 and 2008 (rounded to the nearest thousand). This allows the calculation of industry-specific local area and benchmark area employment growth rates, and thus also the appropriate shift term for each industry-area combination. As a starting point of the forecast we take the 2010 Business Register Employment Survey (BRES) data – again, for each combination of industry and area (as shown in Table 37). Results Under the CS method (see the right-hand half of Table 36), results indicate that the aggregate employment in North Lincolnshire would drop below that of North East Lincolnshire by 2025 (having grown by only 4.6%, rather than 5.6%). In general, trends show relatively strong employment growth forecast for business services and construction, the stagnation of employment in education, health and public administration, and a continued fall forecast for manufacturing employment. Employment growth in the sub-region, at 5.3%, is forecasted to be below its regional and UK counterparts (6.3% and 7.7%). The SS method results are presented in Table 37. Under this scenario, employment growth is significantly higher for the East Riding (12.2%), but only 1.3% for Hull. Furthermore, North Lincolnshire employment growth (6.5%) would be well below NE Lincolnshire (12.6%). As a result the gap between East Riding and Hull employment numbers can widen from approximately 4,000 to more like 17,000. The SS method results, similarly to the CS method results, indicate that in 2025 employment in North East Lincolnshire will be higher than in North Lincolnshire. 70 | 84
The SS method results indicate that the sub-region’s employment growth would be below its regional benchmark (7.8%, rather than 9.7%), albeit slightly above the UK yardstick (still defined to be 7.7%, as above). Under a scenario where the UK population continues to grow as it has been recently, over the 2010-2025 period, it appears likely that there will be a further rise in unemployment in Hull especially. Unfortunately, this scenario is not even the most negative one that is possible: given the known problems in UK economic performance generally across the last five years or so, it seems likely that employment trends – in the period 2010-2020 at least – may involve much less healthy growth rates than those seen across the 1998-2008 decade. The highest employment growth is forecasted for the Humber region in the business services, construction, and mining, quarrying and utilities industry groups, whereas the hotels and restaurants industry group is expected to decrease significantly in employment. Employment levels in manufacturing, and in education, health and public administration, are expected to stagnate over the forecast period. In the former case, of course, the context is national contraction. Unfortunately, some sector-area combinations are sufficiently small as to generate rather implausibly large forecast percentage changes for the 2010-2025 period. However, it is worth noting that our reported forecasts in Table 37 deliberately do not compound employment increases: thus, a predicted 50% increase over 10 years is only linearly scaled up to a 75% predicted rise across 15 years (compounding would generate an 83.7% increase). One other, absolutely crucial, point about this analysis is that it does not factor in the concept of a ‘game-changing’ stream of major investments in a particular sector (such as green energy). If this were to completely change the local, regional and/or national economic landscape, some fundamental relationships within the economy would be likely to change – making forecasting based on recent economic performance very difficult, or even impossible.
The outlook for the renewable energy sector According to the AECOM report (2011) the Yorkshire and the Humber region has potential resources to install approximately 5,500 MW and generate around 16,100 GWh of renewable energy annually by 2025, with the main contributions to the resource coming from commercial scale wind and biomass energy generation. For the sub-region, the key opportunity for increasing commercial scale wind in terms of economically viable resources lie along the coast of East Riding. The Hull and Humber Ports city-region has significant resource (straw) for the production of Biomass energy (this is supported by the strengths identified in the SWOT analysis in WP4). Based on scenario modelling, it has been found that though ambitious it is reasonable for Yorkshire and the Humber region to meet its 15% share or renewable energy target due mainly to significant resources for renewable electricity generation from commercial scale wind energy turbines (Siemens £80million investment into wind turbine assembly in Greenport Hull should help in this end) and biomass co-firing. Figures 19 and 20 below show potential renewable energy generation for both Yorkshire and the Humber, and the Humber sub-region, based on different scenarios.
71 | 84
Figure 19 Distribution of renewable energy resource for Yorkshire and Humber by sub region (for renewable energy Pathway A)
In order to achieve these, the AECOM (2011) study recommends the following. • • • •
Developing local policies and targets of renewable energy in the Local Development Framework (LDF) process. Developing better understanding between renewable energy development and the sub-region’s landscape character and natural environment. Educating communities, authorities and members about appropriate technologies for the subregion. Developing local skills and support mechanisms to help in the delivery of renewable energy schemes in communities.
If we turn to the local authorities as depicted in Figure 21, it is interesting to note that 59% of the subregion’s 2025 renewable energy potential generation capacity is ascribed to the East Riding, and only 4% to Hull – even if, as identified in work package 1, this is a less uneven share than current generation. East Riding commercial wind accounts for 56.4% of the East Riding total 2025 renewable energy potential generation capacity, and nearly a third of the sub-region total. (Hull commercial wind is less than 15% of the Hull total, and less than 1% of the sub-region total.)
72 | 84
Figure 20 Effect of scenario modelling of renewable energy pathways on Hull and Humber Ports resource in 2025
Figure 21 Renewable energy potential generation capacity for the Humber sub-region by 2025
160
3,000
140
2,500
120 2,000 1,500
100
East Riding of Yorkshire
80
Kingston Upon Hull, City of
60
1,000
40 500 Commercial wind Biomass agricultural arisings… Biomass energy crops Biomass managed woodfuel EfW wet EfW C & I EfW MSW Air Source Heat Pump EfW poultry filter Biomass waste wood Solar Thermal Solar PV EfW sewage gas Ground Source Heat Pump small scale wind District heating Hydro EfW Biogas
0
20 0
North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire Hull and Humber Ports East Riding of Yorkshire Kingston Upon Hull, City of North East Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire Hull and Humber Ports
73 | 84
List of figures Figure 17: Population projections based on mid-year estimates, 2010-2025 Figure 18 : Projected year-to-year changes in working age population Figure 19 Distribution of renewable energy resource for Yorkshire and Humber by sub region (for renewable energy Pathway A) Figure 20 Effect of scenario modelling of renewable energy pathways on Hull and Humber Ports resource in 2025 Figure 21 Renewable energy potential generation capacity for the Humber sub-region by 2025
References AECOM (2011) Low Carbon and Renewable Energy Capacity in Yorkshire and Humber.-Final Report with Appendices. (April, 2011). Commissioned by Local Government Yorkshire and Humber. Chapin (2003) A Population and Employment Forecasts for Franklin County. The Department of Urban and Regional Planning. Florida State University. DWP (2011). Pensions Act 2011: Summary of Impacts. Department for Work and Pensions, November 2011. Wilson, R. and K. Homenidou (2012). Working Futures 2010-2020: Technical Report on Sources and Methods. UK Commission for Employment and Skills, January 2012.
List of appendices Table 34: Data groups Table 35: Our classification Table 36 : Employment by industry group (2010 BRES data), and 2025 employment forecasts under constant shares. Table 37: 2025 employment forecasts under shift share (from 2010 BRES data), and 2010-2025 forecast employment change as a percentage. 86
74 | 84
Table 34: Data groups BRES data SIC (2007)
ABI data
Homenidou and Wilson (2012), SIC (2007)
A
Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing
A
Agriculture, hunting and forestry
A
Agriculture
B,D,E
Mining, Quarrying & Utilities
B
Fishing
B
Mining and quarrying
C
Manufacturing
C
Mining and quarrying
part C
Food drink and tobacco
F
Construction
D
Manufacturing
part C
Engineering
Part G
Motor Trades
E
Electricity, gas and water supply
part C
Rest of manufacturing
Part G
Wholesale
F
Construction
D
Electricity and gas
E
Water and sewerage
Part G
Retail
G
Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles, motorcycles and personal and household goods
H
Transport & Storage (inc Postal)
H
Hotels and restaurants
F
Construction
I
Accommodation & Food Services
I
Transport, storage and communication
G
Wholesale and retail trade
J
Information & Communication
J
Financial intermediation
H
Transport and storage
K
Finance & Insurance
K
Real estate, renting and business activities
I
Accommodation and food
L
Property
L
Public administration and defence; compulsory social security
part J
Media
M
Professional, Scientific & Technical
M
Education
part J
Information technology
N
Business Administration and Support Services
N
Health and social work
K
Finance and insurance
O
Education
O
Other community, social and personal service activities
L
Real estate
P
Health
P
Private households with employed persons
M
Professional services
Q
Extra-territorial organisation and bodies
N
Support services
O
Public admin. and defence
P
Education
Q
Health and social work
R
Arts and entertainment
S
Other services
Q
Public Admin
R,S
Other
75 | 84
Table 35: Our classification Data categories BRES
ABI
Homenidou and Wilson (2012)
Categories name
A
A+B
A
Agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing
B,D,E
C+E
B,D,E
Mining, Quarrying & Utilities
C
D
C
Manufacturing
F
F
F
Construction
G
G
G
Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles, motorcycles and personal and household goods
I
H
I
Hotels and restaurants
H+J
I
H,J
Transport, storage and communication
K
J
K
Financial intermediation
L,M,N
K
L,M,N
Real estate, renting and business activities
O,P,Q
L,M,N
O,P,Q
Education, Health, Public admin
R,S
O,P,Q
R,S
Other community, social and personal service activities
76 | 84
1.1
11.7
42.8
6.0
Financial intermediation
Real estate, renting and business activities
Education, Health, Public admin
Other community, social and personal service activities
Total percentage change
119.9
7.6
Transport, storage and communication
Total
8.4
Hotels and restaurants
20.0
6.4
Construction
Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles, motorcycles and personal and household goods
14.3
1.1
Mining, Quarrying & Utilities
Manufacturing
0.5
Agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing
Industry Group:
ER
70.1
3.1
21.5
8.7
0.7
6.2
4.0
12.7
2.9
9.6
0.6
0.1
NEL
70.6
2.5
18.3
6.8
0.8
5.5
4.2
11.1
5.3
14.6
1.4
0.1
NL
116.1
5.0
34.6
15.9
1.1
7.2
5.8
21.2
6.1
18.0
1.2
n/a
Hull
376.7
16.6
117.2
43.1
3.7
26.5
22.4
65.0
20.7
56.5
4.3
0.7
Humb
Employment (thousands), 2010 BRES
2295.9
104.1
680.8
319.7
77.9
165.9
142.9
374.4
113.5
254.2
26.1
36.4
Y&H
21.3%
-1.9%
25.0%
9.3%
11.0%
12.6%
5.3%
17.5%
-10.0%
5.8%
-11.0%
% change in employment
2010-2025
74.0 5.6%
5.1%
3.8
21.1
10.9
0.8
6.9
4.5
13.4
3.4
8.6
0.6
0.1
NEL
126.1
7.3
42.0
14.6
1.2
8.4
9.5
21.1
7.5
12.9
1.2
0.4
ER
4.6%
73.8
3.0
18.0
8.5
0.9
6.1
4.7
11.7
6.2
13.1
1.5
0.1
NL
5.6%
122.6
6.1
33.9
19.9
1.2
8.0
6.5
22.3
7.2
16.2
1.3
n/a
Hull
5.3%
396.6
20.1
115.0
53.9
4.0
29.4
25.2
68.5
24.3
50.9
4.5
0.6
Humb
Constant Share 2025 Employment Forecast
Table 36 : Employment by industry group (2010 BRES data), and 2025 employment forecasts under constant shares.
77 | 84
6.3%
2440.8
126.3
668.0
399.7
85.2
184.2
160.9
394.3
133.3
228.9
27.6
32.4
Y&H
0.6
4.3 6.7 1.7
Hotels and restaurants
Transport, storage and communication
78 | 84
*ER+NEL+NL
Total
134.5
4.6
45.2
Education, Health, Public admin
Other community, social and personal service activities
23.7
Real estate, renting and business activities
Financial intermediation
7.3
21.7
Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles, motorcycles and personal and household goods
78.9
5.1
21.0
17.0
2.7
11.7
3.6
10.7
8.4
1.6
Construction
1.5
Mining, Quarrying & Utilities
0.0
14.2
0.2
Agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing
NEL
Manufacturing
ER
Industry Group:
75.2
2.1
19.9
6.8
0.5
7.1
3.7
11.6
6.6
14.0
2.6
0.3
NL
117.6
4.8
34.3
17.2
0.4
4.9
2.9
21.6
9.7
19.1
2.6
n/a
Hull
406.1
16.6
120.3
64.8
3.2
26.0
13.6
66.6
30.6
55.8
8.2
0.5*
Humb
2519.3
105.7
702.3
451.5
99.4
182.4
139.2
401.6
139.5
245.4
22.9
29.5
Y&H
Shift Share 2025 Employment Forecast (thousands)
12.2%
-22.9%
5.6%
102.8%
52.9%
-12.1%
-48.7%
8.4%
66.5%
-0.5%
34.0%
-62.9%
ER
12.6%
65.7%
-2.5%
95.5%
-19.6%
17.6%
-32.5%
-8.2%
22.8%
-12.1%
160.3%
-83.3%
NEL
6.5%
-17.6%
8.7%
0.6%
-32.2%
29.4%
-11.8%
4.4%
24.6%
-4.1%
83.2%
157.5%
NL
1.3%
-4.1%
-0.9%
8.0%
-61.4%
-31.8%
-50.4%
2.1%
59.5%
6.3%
118.6%
n/a
Hull
2010-2025 Employment % increase
Table 37: 2025 employment forecasts under shift share (from 2010 BRES data), and 2010-2025 forecast employment change as a percentage.
7.8%
0.1%
2.7%
50.2%
-13.2%
-1.9%
-39.3%
2.4%
47.6%
-1.2%
91.2%
-34.4%*
Humb
9.7%
1.5%
3.2%
41.2%
27.6%
9.9%
-2.6%
7.3%
22.9%
-3.5%
-12.1%
-19.1%
Y&H
Conclusions and future steps Professor David B Grant (Editor) Associate Dean (Business Engagement), Hull University Business School
Conclusions A summary of the work package findings is as follows. •
•
• • •
•
Total gross value added (GVA) for the Humber sub-region (East Riding of Yorkshire, Kingstonupon-Hull, North East Lincolnshire and North Lincolnshire) was £14.0 billion in 2009 and comprised primarily production and manufacturing (28 per cent), public administration, education and health (22 per cent), and distribution, transport, accommodation and food (21 per cent). Total 2011 population in the sub-region was 917,600 with 406,200 in employment. A survey of over 100 logistics companies in the Humber sub-region estimates a 17.5 per cent growth in port-centric logistics activities by 2025, translating to an additional £350 million GVA and 8,200 jobs. Increased economic activity in the Yorkshire and Humber region due to offshore wind developments are estimated to be between £4-10 billion GVA and 8-15,000 jobs through to 2020. The economic impact from the growth of other renewable energy related developments in the Yorkshire and Humber region is estimated to be £1.3 billion GVA and 4,200 jobs. A scoring system was applied to the 10-tenets required for sustainable management and future development in the Humber sub-region that should allow developers to fulfil environmental and societal responsibilities while achieving the above economic objectives. Without activities discussed in WPs 2-4, the population growth rate in the Humber sub-region will only average 0.5 per cent to 2025 and in the working age population will decline from 2020 onwards. Scenario modelling found it reasonable for the Yorkshire and Humber region to meet its 15 per cent renewable energy target share by 2025.
Port-centric logistics development, offshore wind energy projects, and other renewable energy projects can be economic and employment ‘game-changers’ for the Humber sub-region and also positively affect the Yorkshire and Humber region. The potential increases in economic activity and employment for the Humber sub-region range from £5.65 billion–£11.65 billion GVA and 20,400-27,040 jobs.
Stakeholder briefing A briefing meeting was held in September 2012 with invited key stakeholders to present findings from the six work packages and obtain feedback from attendees. A list of attendees is contained in the Appendix. Feedback and related action points are as follows. •
• • •
It was requested that the final report be distilled into an extended executive summary. This has been done in conjunction with the final report and both versions will be available on the University of Hull website. It was noted that the biomass data contained in WP4 is from 2008. Is more recent data available? The WP authors acknowledge this point; however this is the latest publicly available data. It was suggested that the four local authorities need to work more closely together on these issues. This point is noted in this report for the four local authorities to consider. It was requested that the names of attendees at the briefing be made available. This point was noted and agreed subject to unanimous permission from attendees to do so. This permission was received and the list is contained in the Appendix.
79 | 84
Future steps As part of the research project brief, all work packages had to report their potential future research outcomes, including any academic papers that are likely to be published as a result and any follow-on research funding that academics in each work package will pursue. Following are the future steps each work package has reported as of October 2012. WP1 and WP6 The research and draft reports undertaken in WP1 and WP6 are being revised following feedback at the key stakeholder briefing to prepare a paper for submission to an academic journal In order to do so, a Notice from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) has been purchased to allow a further 12 months access to Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES) data that is required to develop this research further. At the same time, this research has created new and/or stronger links with local and regional stakeholders, enabling a stronger position with applications for research grant and reach-out funding. WP2 The WP2 findings suggest that PCL activity in the Humber region by 2025 will require an additional workforce of 4,000–8,000 while an estimate for gross value added is £350 million, both based on PCL activity growth of 17.5%, which is assumed to make up 25% of the current indirect port activity. An ESRC application for a business and management research fellow to investigate the skills needed in the port logistics and transport industry in the Humber region was submitted in July 2012 and awarded in November 2012. Additionally, the Logistics Institute is trying to put together a consortium to work on two distinct projects related to SST.2013.6-2 within EU FP7. The first will survey significant differences in current practice of collecting and interpreting port data which restrict the monitoring of the evolution, developments and needs of EU port systems, while the second will address sectoral changes and human resource issues, specifically skills required as a component of wider efforts to make EU ports more competitive and resource efficient. WP3 Data were collected about turbine size, turbine quantity, developers, turbine models, turbine manufacturing sites, major component supplier sites, and costs associated with offshore wind farm projects from various sources for WP3. The economic projections and additional employment were proposed in low and high case scenarios based on potential local content for both UK and Yorkshire & the Humber as percentages of the different cost elements for the four wind farms. Estimated gross value added ranged from £3,984 million to £9,802 million whereas additional employment was projected to range from 7,666 to 15,036. This work has been included as the basis for Hull-led work packages in an EU FP7 proposal being submitted at the beginning of February 2013 (OCEAN 2013.4: Innovative transport and deployment systems for the offshore wind energy sector). Research activities under this topic will address the elaboration of optimal logistical processes and on-land transport links for large offshore structures; improved operations and maintenance including remote condition monitoring systems with reduced human intervention; and development of new business models at European level for large offshore systems based on integrated life-cycle approaches. WP4 WP4 investigated the current and projected make up of the renewable energy sector in the Humber region, excluding offshore wind which was captured in WP3, and the findings highlighted a number of opportunities for research and other related activities. It helped cement relationships with existing collaborators and allowed the identification of companies to target for future collaboration. These collaborations will also be used to inform the development of undergraduate and postgraduate degree programmes in energy engineering. The findings also raised awareness of potential collaborators in other departments within the University. Specifically, a collaboration is currently being developed
80 | 84
between Engineering (Professor Ron Patton and Dr James Gilbert) and Geography (Professor Jack Hardisty) to seek EPSRC funding for work on high efficiency, fault tolerant wave power systems. WP5 The IECS-led WP 5 considered the whole range of environmental and societal repercussions of the Humber economic development for the foreseeable future. This was encapsulated in the further definition and quantification of the 10-tenets of sustainable development and environmental management. Such a multidisciplinary assessment of environmental management had not previously been carried out so the work is resulting in 2 manuscripts which are now as drafts - one on the generic 10-tenet framework and the other on this framework as applied to the Humber’s economic development. This work has now been included in the basis for Hull-led WPs in two EU FP7 stage 1 proposals being submitted at the end of October 2012: CHARISMA led by Hamburg University and BIONOVTOX led by Trinity College Dublin.
81 | 84
82 | 84
Appendix: List of attendees at briefing and feedback session Phil Hall
Economic Development, Hull City Council
Emma Toulson
Project Manager, Renewables, North East Lincolnshire Council
Lucy Hudson
Lead Officer for Housing Policy, North East Lincolnshire Council
John Britton
Renewables Network
Phil Coombes
Associated British Ports
Philip Winn
Environment Agency
Marc Paish
Pulse
Brian Morris
RWE, nPower
Peter Aarosin
Danbrit Shipping Ltd.
John Meehan
Meehan Media & Communications
Steve Clarke
Smart Wind
Lynn Benton
Humber Local and Economic Partnership
Jackie Tulley
North Lincolnshire Council
Mike Langley
P&O Ferries
Jonathan Moser
DB Schenker Rail UK Ltd.
Gareth Escreet
SMS Towage Ltd
Dan Humphries
Expert Engineering
Dr Jon Atkins
University of Hull
Steve Barnard
University of Hull
Dr Federico D'Amico
University of Hull
Dr Jim Gilbert
University of Hull
Professor David B. Grant
University of Hull
Professor David Menachof
University of Hull
Dr Mike Nolan
University of Hull
David Wells
University of Hull
Andy Smith
University of Hull
83 | 84
84 | 84
responsible leadership for a complex world
www.hull.ac.uk/hubs
