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The Greater Washington Region's Future Housing Needs: 2023

by Jeannette Chapman George Mason University School of Public Policy Center for Regional Analysis Arlington, Virginia

June 2015

Acknowledgements Enterprise Community Partners is pleased to be the underwriter for this report by the George Mason Center for Regional Analysis (CRA). CRA has been a leader in analyzing data related to the Greater Washington, D.C. regional economy. Enterprise believes it is important to ground funding, policy and systems change conversations in sound data analysis. In light of the housing insecurity issues that impact millions of families across the nation and hundreds of thousands of households in the Greater Washington region, this new report by CRA comes at a critical time. In order to remain competitive as a regional economy, it is important to understand and address the housing needs of individuals and families at all income levels and determine what steps can be taken to meet those needs and reduce the housing insecurity burdens faced by far too many households, especially low income households. In collaboration with the Greater Washington Housing Leaders Group and other stakeholders, we hope this paper will inform public and private sector policy and funding discussions aimed at addressing this critical issue. The Center for Regional Analysis would like to thank Enterprise Community Partners for underwriting this research project. The Center for Regional Analysis would also like to thank the Greater Washington Housing Leaders Group for their support: 2030 Group Bernstein Management Corporation Citi Community Development Coalition for Nonprofit Housing and Economic Development The Community Foundation for the National Capital Region Enterprise Community Partners George Mason University Center for Regional Analysis Housing Association of Nonprofit Developers Metro Bankers Group Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments Northern Virginia Affordable Housing Alliance United Way of the National Capital Area Urban Land Institute Washington Regional Association of Grantmakers

George Mason University Center for Regional Analysis

Summary of Key Research Findings Between 20111 and 2023, the Greater Washington region2 is projected to add 410,380 new households for a total of 2,524,410 households, including workers and their families, retirees, students and others necessary for a robust region. In order to determine the future housing needs for these households, this analysis forecasts the Area Median Income (AMI)3 group of the households, as well as the type (singlefamily and multi-family) and tenure (owned and rented) of the housing units they occupy. Key Findings •

Between 2011 and 2023, the region is expected to add 149,000 low income households earning less than 80% AMI. This growth will be driven by increases in low wage jobs and the retirement of the Baby Boomers.

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The majority of this increase is forecasted to occur in renter households. The region is forecasted to gain 82,130 low income renter households by 2023 for a total of 476,070 low income renter households.

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The remaining increase in low income households will be owner households. The region is expected to add 66,870 low income owner households during this time. In 2023, the Greater Washington region is forecasted to be the home for 346,870 low income owner households.

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Of the increase in low income households between 2011 and 2023, o

71,190 households are expected to be extremely low income households earning less than 30% AMI (Table 1);

o

50,980 are forecasted to be very low income households earning between 30% and 49.9% AMI; and

o

26,920 are forecasted to be low income households earning between 50% and 79.9% AMI.

Table 1. Households by Area Median Income Group, Greater Washington Region Households 2011-2023 Increase 2011 Extremely Low Income: