The global health impacts of future food scenarios Marco Springmann (U Oxford) Peter Scarborough (U Oxford) Daniel Mason-D’Croz (IFPRI) — 4th Annual LCIRAH Conference June 2014 (updated)

Marco Springmann

Global health impacts

Global food system

The food system will face multiple pressures in the future: Environmental pressures: climate change (droughts, yield losses, floods, etc) Social pressures: population growth to over 9 billion Economic pressures: growth in food demand and food transition to more animal-based products

Marco Springmann

Global health impacts

Global food system

The food system will face multiple pressures in the future: Environmental pressures: climate change (droughts, yield losses, floods, etc) Social pressures: population growth to over 9 billion Economic pressures: growth in food demand and food transition to more animal-based products The food system also exceeds pressures: Environmental impacts: deforestation, GHG emissions Economic and social impacts: food production and demand Health impacts: malnutrition (undernourished, overweight) and related diseases

Marco Springmann

Global health impacts

Global food system

The food system will face multiple pressures in the future: Environmental pressures: climate change (droughts, yield losses, floods, etc) Social pressures: population growth to over 9 billion Economic pressures: growth in food demand and food transition to more animal-based products The food system also exceeds pressures: Environmental impacts: deforestation, GHG emissions Economic and social impacts: food production and demand Health impacts: malnutrition (undernourished, overweight) and related diseases

Marco Springmann

Global health impacts

Global food system

The food system will face multiple pressures in the future: Environmental pressures: climate change (droughts, yield losses, floods, etc) Social pressures: population growth to over 9 billion Economic pressures: growth in food demand and food transition to more animal-based products The food system also exceeds pressures: Environmental impacts: deforestation, GHG emissions Economic and social impacts: food production and demand Health impacts: malnutrition (undernourished, overweight) and related diseases

Marco Springmann

Global health impacts

Study outline

This study: Construct global health model to analyse the health impacts of future food scenarios (subject to climate change and socio-economic pressures).

Marco Springmann

Global health impacts

Study outline

This study: Construct global health model to analyse the health impacts of future food scenarios (subject to climate change and socio-economic pressures). Methods: Agricultural model (IMPACT) to produce future food scenarios [IFPRI] Markov modelling to analyse health impacts [U Oxford]

Marco Springmann

Global health impacts

Agricultural model International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT):

Marco Springmann

Global health impacts

Agricultural model High spatial resolution:

Marco Springmann

Global health impacts

Agricultural model Environmental pressures:

Marco Springmann

Global health impacts

Agricultural model Environmental pressures:

Health-related output: ∆population → ∆deaths ∆malnutrition among children → ∆childhood mortality ∆food consumption → ∆weight → ∆diet and weight-related diseases (CHD, stroke, cancer, etc)

Marco Springmann

Global health impacts

Health context Leading risk factors for death in 2010 (GBD, 2013):

Marco Springmann

Global health impacts

Global health model

State-transition Markov model: Divide process into distinct states. Assign transition probabilities to movements between states.

Marco Springmann

Global health impacts

Global health model

State-transition Markov model: Divide process into distinct states. Assign transition probabilities to movements between states.

Marco Springmann

Global health impacts

Global health model For one country:

Marco Springmann

Global health impacts

Global health model

For all countries:

Marco Springmann

Global health impacts

Global health model

Marco Springmann

Global health impacts

Global health module State-transition diagram:

Marco Springmann

Global health impacts

Global health module Calibration of baseline model: UN population data WHO data on mean BMI and percentage overweight and obese Estimate complete BMI distribution by fitting data to a log-normal distribution WHO data on malnourished children (age