The German organic market An overview

The German organic market – An overview Prof. Dr. Ulrich Hamm, University of Kassel, Germany 1 Analysis of the previous organic market developments ...
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The German organic market – An overview

Prof. Dr. Ulrich Hamm, University of Kassel, Germany

1 Analysis of the previous organic market developments 1.1 Demand 1.2 Supply 1.3 Marketing 2 Trends for the further development of demand and supply 3 Potential opportunities for Irish exporters of organic food

Prof. Dr. U. Hamm Dept. of Agricultural and Food Marketing

1 Analysis of the previous organic market developments 1.1 Demand

Annual turnover for organic food in Germany 1) billion Euros 6.00 5.30 5.00

4.60 3.90

4.00

3.50 3.00

3.10

2.70

3.00

billion Euros

2.05 2.00 1.00 0.00 2000 1)

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

On retail level, excluding out-of-home consumption

Source: Hamm and Rippin 2008

Prof. Dr. U. Hamm Dept. of Agricultural and Food Marketing

1.1 Demand Germany is by far the biggest organic food market in Europe, however, there is still more room for further growth. Organic food purchases of the top 5 countries in Europe 1) (2007, in Euro per capita) 103

Sw itze rla nd De nm a rk

92

Lichte nste in

91 74

Austria 65

Ge rm a ny 0 1)

20

40

60

80

100

120

Excluding out-of-home consumption

Source: Hamm 2008

Prof. Dr. U. Hamm Dept. of Agricultural and Food Marketing

1.1 Demand

The level of organic food consumption was still low in Germany in 2007: ► organic share on total expenditures on food was 3.4% with huge differences between the different food categories: 63.8% baby food in jars 28.8% lemons 28.2% vegetable drinks 27.4% carrots 24.3% beetroot 16.6% muesli 15.3% zucchini 13.9% bananas 11.5% fresh milk 10.4% eggs

7.7% bread 7.1% potatoes 6.9% oranges 5.2% apples 3.3% jogurt 2.4% butter 2.2% beef 0.7% poultry 0.6% pork 0.1% fish

Source: ZMP (2008) based on GfK panel data

Prof. Dr. U. Hamm Dept. of Agricultural and Food Marketing

1.1 Demand

Buying frequency of German organic food consumers (2007, different sources): •

84 to 92% bought at least one organic product



9 to 27% often bought organic products



3 to 8% bought organic products predominantly

Prof. Dr. U. Hamm Dept. of Agricultural and Food Marketing

1.1 Demand

Socio-demographic characteristics of German organic food consumers (2007, different sources): •

higher educational level



slightly higher per capita income



higher share of young families with small children



higher share of middle aged couples („empty nests“)



low share of single households

Prof. Dr. U. Hamm Dept. of Agricultural and Food Marketing

1.1 Demand

Top 5 buying motives of German consumers for organic food (2007, different sources): 1. Health, fewer chemical residues 2. Taste 3. Animal husbandry 4. Environment 5. Naturalness ► Trend towards „Lifestyle of Health and Sustainability (LOHAS)“

Prof. Dr. U. Hamm Dept. of Agricultural and Food Marketing

1.2 Supply

Certified organic area in Germany at the end of the respective year (1000 ha) 1.000,00 900,00 800,00 697 700,00 600,00

734

768

807

826

2005

2006

865

632 546

500,00 400,00 300,00 200,00 100,00 0,00 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2007

Source: BLE 2008

Prof. Dr. U. Hamm Dept. of Agricultural and Food Marketing

1.2 Supply Indices of the development of supply (organic area) and demand (turnover) in Germany (2000 = 100) Turnover

Organic area

260

259

240

p ga y l pp u s

220

220 200

ing w gro

190 180 170 160 147

140

132

120

128

151 134

141

148

151

2005

2006

159

116

100 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2007

Source: Hamm 2008

Prof. Dr. U. Hamm Dept. of Agricultural and Food Marketing

1.2 Supply Development of supply (organic area) and demand (turnover) in the Top 10 European countries for organic food (2006 against 2001 in %) Turnover

Organic area

91

UK

70

FR

70

DE

69

DK

55 44

31 -15 27 28

BE NL

34

SE

22

32

AT

34

28

-9

IT CH

26 9 -3 16

Source: Hamm 2008 based on national data

Prof. Dr. U. Hamm Dept. of Agricultural and Food Marketing

1.2 Supply

► Supply deficits for organic products in Germany since 2006: - poultry - different vegetables and fruit - potatoes - compound feed (especially protein feed)

► Additional supply deficits for organic products in Germany since 2007: - milk (especially butter in winter) - spelt, wheat, oats

Prof. Dr. U. Hamm Dept. of Agricultural and Food Marketing

1.2 Supply Farmer prices of organic products sold to processors or wholesalers in Germany (in €/100 kg without VAT) 2005

2006

2007

2008 1)

Wheat

25

26

38

51

Rye

18

21

36

55

Oats

20

26

40

41

Field peas

22

26

35

48

Potatoes

28

48

56

58

Carrots

61

68

72

77

Milk (4.2% fat)

33

35

41

50

bulls 2)

321

347

368

364

cows 2)

235

246

267

270

pigs 2)

234

244

267

297

lambs 2)





495

504

Eggs (100 pieces)

22

22

23

25

1) January to June 2) Carcass weight Source: ZMP, different years

Prof. Dr. U. Hamm Dept. of Agricultural and Food Marketing

1.3 Marketing

Sales channels for organic products in Germany (in %) 2000

2007

Farmers/gardeners

17

10

Bakeries/butchers

7

5

Health food shops

10

4

Natural food shops

28

22

Conventional retailers

33

53

5

6

Others (e.g. drugstores)

Source: Hamm and Rippin 2008

Prof. Dr. U. Hamm Dept. of Agricultural and Food Marketing

1.3 Marketing Recent trends in sales channel developments for organic food in Germany

Main winners

Main loosers

1. Conventional discounters (Aldi, Lidl, Plus, Penny, Norma etc.)

►direct sales of farmers ►conventional supermarkets with small organic range

2. Conventional supermarkets with broad organic range > 2000 organic articles (tegut, Feneberg, some Edeka or Rewe supermarkets)

►conventional supermarkets with small organic range ►natural food shops ►direct sales of farmers

3. Organic supermarkets (Alnatura, Basic and many small chains)

►small natural food shops ►direct sales of farmers ►bakeries, butchers

Source: Hamm 2008

Prof. Dr. U. Hamm Dept. of Agricultural and Food Marketing

2 Trends for the further development of demand and supply

Further strong growth of demand because of:

(1) Growing interest of consumers in buying organic products ► LOHAS ► organics are seen as the main possibility of lowering health risks (chemical residues, in future GMOs) ► organics are seen as a possibility to have a good taste without a bad conscience towards one‘s own health, natural environment, farm animals etc. ► increasing amounts and competition on processors‘ and retailers‘ level lead to lower consumer prices

Prof. Dr. U. Hamm Dept. of Agricultural and Food Marketing

2 Trends for the further development of demand and supply

However, consumers become more demanding with respect to organic food: • appearance (especially fruit and vegetables, packaging) • taste • convenience degree (frozen pizza, pre-cooked pasta, chilled food etc.) • traceability of origin and transport media (carbon footprint, food miles) • regional origin („fresh food we can trust“) • ethical values with regard to production and trade („fair trade“, „good working conditions for employees“)

Prof. Dr. U. Hamm Dept. of Agricultural and Food Marketing

2 Trends for the further development of demand and supply

Consumers‘ demand for organic products increasingly differentiates in • premium segment (e.g. regional specialities, perfect taste) ► mainly sold via organic supermarkets, conventional supermarkets with a broad range of organic products and farm shops • discount segment (organic is seen as a food category) ► mainly sold via conventional discounters, drugstores and conventional supermarket chains, but also via organic supermarkets • in between segment with no distinctive profile (organics of the past) ► problematic in future

Prof. Dr. U. Hamm Dept. of Agricultural and Food Marketing

2 Trends for the further development of demand and supply

(2) Growing interest of conventional discounters and supermarket chains because of: ► consumers‘ demand ► organics are seen as possibility to minimise risks with regard to food security (residues of pesticides or antibiotics) ► organics help to improve the company‘s image (CSR concepts)

Prof. Dr. U. Hamm Dept. of Agricultural and Food Marketing

2 Trends for the further development of demand and supply

(3) Growing importance of organic products in out-of-home consumption ► top end restaurants (► LOHAS) ► canteens of companies (following CSR concepts) ► canteens of governmental organisations ► canteens for schools and kindergartens

Prof. Dr. U. Hamm Dept. of Agricultural and Food Marketing

2 Trends for the further development of demand and supply

Further development of supply:

? Prof. Dr. U. Hamm Dept. of Agricultural and Food Marketing

2 Trends for the further development of demand and supply

Further development of supply:

• German farmers are risk-averse and traditionally not very market-oriented (waiting for governmental incentives) • like to act independently or in small organisations only ► many organic farmer organisations with own standards (more than 10) ► many small organic marketing organisations (ca. 60) which cannot fulfill the quantitative (and qualitative) demand of big discount or supermarket chains Prof. Dr. U. Hamm Dept. of Agricultural and Food Marketing

2 Trends for the further development of demand and supply

Further development of supply:

There is no question that the German organic market needs more imports to overcome the existing supply shortages and to serve the further strongly increasing demand.

Prof. Dr. U. Hamm Dept. of Agricultural and Food Marketing

3 Potential opportunities for Irish exporters of organic food

It is not possible to give well-founded advice to Irish food exporters without knowing the specific strengths and weaknesses of the organic sector in Ireland.

As a foreigner, I can only share a few ideas with you.

Prof. Dr. U. Hamm Dept. of Agricultural and Food Marketing

3 Potential opportunities for Irish exporters of organic food

All in all export opportunities for organic food (growing market) are much better than for conventional food (shrinking market).

Prof. Dr. U. Hamm Dept. of Agricultural and Food Marketing

3 Potential opportunities for Irish exporters of organic food

Ireland may have better premises to serve the premium organic food market as • several conventional Irish food products (e.g. beef, butter) have a very good image in Germany and are sold for premium prices • the German market for organic beef is not scarce in supply and Danish and Austrian farmers fill the gap for discount organic milk products • the premium organic food market does not need big quantities in homogeneous quality (Irish organic market is still small).

Prof. Dr. U. Hamm Dept. of Agricultural and Food Marketing

3 Potential opportunities for Irish exporters of organic food

There are also good opportunities to serve the small but strongly growing German market for organic fish. Conventional production methods (especially for salmon) are often critisized in German media reports so that organic fish will have good sales opportunities.

► Organic fish as a possibility to improve the overall Irish image for organic premium products.

Prof. Dr. U. Hamm Dept. of Agricultural and Food Marketing