The Future of the  Tropical Forests of Amazonia

Carlos A. Nobre Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation of Brazil

UNESCO Paris, 9 December 2014.

The Amazon in the ‘Anthropocene’: The 'Great Amazonian’ Acceleration Total Population [#]

Urban Population [#]

30000000

Cities & Towns [#] 1000 800 600 400 200 0

20000000 15000000

20000000

10000000 10000000

5000000 0

0 1900

1940

1960

1980

1900

2000

1940

1960

1980

2000

1900

1950

1970

1990

2010

Indigenous /Conservation Areas [#]

Roads [km] 80000

1000

60000

800

40000

600

20000

400

0 1900

1950

1970

1990

200

2010

0 1900

200 000 000

200000

400000 150 000 000

150000

0 2010

Cumulative Deforestation [km2]

100000 0

1900 1950 1970 1990 2010

0 1990

2010

200000

50 000 000

50000

1970

1990

300000

100 000 000

100000

1950

1970

Cattle herd [#]

Unofficial Roads [km]

1900

1950

1920

1950

1970

1980

1995

Brondizio 2013

Risks to the Natural Systems in Amazonia

Does the 'great acceleration ’ globally and regionally  pose a risk to the ecosystems of Amazonia? 

Forestsp rovide important economic  and ecological services …

5

Amazonian Ecosystems Service • Maintenance of global carbon cycle (15% of global  N for anthropogenic CO2)

• • • •

Powerful hydrology (20% of fresh water flow into the glob Biodiversity richness (> 10% of species) Climate stabilization (key heat source for the atmosphere) Helps to maintain cultural and etnic diversity (ove populations, language diversity)

04.Feb.2013  06:00 UTC

© Celestia

6

Amazon: a sink of about 0.5 ton C/ha/year              over 350 MtonC/year

Amazon Biomass is increasing over time (green arrows) Is this a CO2 “fertilization” effect? Phillips et al. 2009 Science

But, the reality of agricultural expansion in the Amazon is  one of fire and  forest destruction …

Ecosystems of Amazonia ‐ environmental drivers of change Complex Earth System Models are needed to study  all these interacting and simultaneous drivers

Land Cover Change Climate Change

Fire

Climate Extremes

Anthropogenic and Natural Drivers of Environmental Change in Amazonia

Warming of 0.8°C in Amazonia (Victoria et al.,  GLOBAL WARMING 2004. J Climate);  3°‐4°C by 2100 (IPCC AR5, 2013)!

Can global warming have a discernible effect in the Amazon?

Consequences of Climate Change on the Biome distribution in  Tropical South America

Model Projections:  Tropical rainforest  will be replaced by  savannah! 18% to 48% by the end of  the 21st Century Projected distribution of natural biomes in South America for 2090‐2099 from 15 AOGCMs for the A2 emissions scenarios, calculated by using CPTEC‐INPE PVM. Salazar, Nobre et al., 2007 GRL

What is going on right now in terms of climate variability and change in the Amazon?

Record‐breaking droughts (2005, 2010) and floods (2009, 2012, 2014)

2005

2012

Rio Manaquiri, a 150 km de Manaus

2010

2014

Is this an expected manifestation of natural climate variability?

Or could it be an early sign of climate change due to global warming?

What is going on right now in terms of climate variability and change in the Amazon?

Record‐breaking droughts (2005, 2010) and floods (2009, 2012, 2014)

2005

2012

Changes in extreme flow in Amazon  Rio Manaquiri, a 150 km de Manaus River (medium confidence, major  contribution from climate change)  (IPCC/ WGIIAR5, 2014)

2010

2014

Warming of 0.8°C in Amazonia (Victoria et al.,  2004. J Climate);  3°‐4°C by 2100 (IPCC AR5, 2013)!

GLOBAL WARMING

Total deforested area (clear‐cutting) is 765,000 km2 in  Brazilian Amazonia (20%) (INPE, 2014)

DEFORESTATION

Anthropogenic and Natural Drivers of Environmental Change in Amazonia DROUGHTS

FOREST FIRES

What are the synergistic effect of  global warming + deforestation +  fires? Forest fire frequency ↑ (Nepstad et al., 2006)

Projected distribution of natural biomes in South America more than 2/3 of the models used ≥ 6 models) coincide for 2050 from 9 Earth System Models for the RCP 8.5 emission scenarios

Combined Effects Climate Change + Deforestation + Fire + CO2 ‘Fertilization’ (25%)

Forest

= Savannah

20% Def.+  Fire

Deforestation at  20%  + Fire effect

+ Climate Change Scenario of IPCC AR5 (RCP8.5) in 2050

+ CO2 ‘Fertilization’ Effect at 25% Tropical Seasonal Forest Savannah Tropical Evergreen Forest

Source: Sampaio et al., 2014, unpublished.

Fraction of the remaining forest area for the entire Amazonia Climate change projections – CMIP5 – 9 Earth System Models (ESM) DEFOR. ONLY

RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5

CC+20% Defor.+Fire 2050

50%

40%

20%

RCP 2.6 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5

CC ONLY 2050

2025

2050

2025

Projected  reductions of over   50%  of Forest  cover by 2050!

2050

Source: Sampaio et al., 2014, unpublished.

Maximum speeds at which species can move across landscapes

Trees can move only a few km per decade   and would be 'outraced’ by the climate change velocity (for Amazonia, at least 20 km/decade for RCP 4.5)

Based on observations  and models; vertical axis  on left and compared  with speeds at which  temperatures are  projected to move across  landscapes (climate  velocities for  temperature; vertical axis  on right). IPCC AR5 WGII, 2014

‘Tipping points’ in Amazonia

Equilibrium states

Tropical forest in equilibrium with current climate: one stable equilibrium state Savanna state triggered by climate change and/or deforestation: two stable equilibrium states Stability of savanna enhanced by increased droughts and fires Environmental variation

Cardoso and Borma, 2010 Borma, Nobre and Cardoso, 2013

Quantifying ‘Tipping points’ in Amazonia Bi‐stability with two stable states: Forest and forest‐savanna

ΔT > 3.5 C Deforest. > 40%

Observations ΔT ≈ 1 C Deforestation ≈ 20% Lengthening of  dry season (?)

32 years December January February March April May September October November June July August

Decreasing trends for the SON period,  i.e., the end of the dry season and the beginning of the rainy season.

Dubreuil et al, Environ Monit Assess (2012) 184:877–891 

REGIONAL CLIMATE PROJECTIONS: TEMPERATURE CHANGE FOR THE AMAZON

For high emission scenarios,  temperature Increase exceeds 4 C in the Amazon

December‐February  Temperature Change for the Amazon

June ‐August  Temperature Change for the Amazon

‘Tipping points’ in Amazonia Bi‐stability with two stable states: Forest and forest‐savanna

ΔT > 3.5 C Deforest. > 40%

Even if tropical countries  cut deforestation to zero,  uncheked global warming will  wreak havoc to the Amazon forest!

Science‐police interface for reducing deforestation Global Fossil Fuel and Land Use Change  Emissions of GHG Total global emissions: 39.4 ± 3.4 GtCO2 in 2013, 42% over 1990

Fossil fuel emissions continue to  go up …

% of  land‐use change emissions to global emissions:  36% in 1960, 19% in 1990, 8% in 2013

Three different methods have been used to estimate land‐use change emissions, indicated here by  different shades of grey Source: CDIAC; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014

Policies to reduce Amazon Deforestation 2008

Prevention and Control of Deforestation in the  Legal Amazon (PPCDAM). Coordinated activities among government agencies; Introduction of real‐time remote‐sensing forest  monitoring technology Extensive expansion of protected territories.

Targeting of priority municipalities ‐ prevention, monitoring, and combating of  illegal deforestation  Revision of legislation ‐ environmental  infractions and respective sanctions. Conditioning of rural credit.

2004

35000 30000

2008 PRODES/INPE

25000 20000

4848

15000 10000 5000

Annual deforestation rates in Brazilian Amazon

0 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Deforestation rates  (km2/year)

2004

Years

Source:  Assunção et al. (2012)

Net profitability of current economic activities in the  Amazon and versus the potential for REDD CATTLE

US$ 20 a 70 per ha/year REDD

US$  2.000 to 2.400 per ha  (at US$ 20 per ton C)

SELECTIVE LOGGING

US$ 100 to 400 per ha/25‐ to 30‐year cycle SOYA

US$ 100 to 200 per ha/year

Decoupling agricultural  production and deforestation

120

Historical agricultural commodities  prices in Brazilian Amazon (2004‐2013)

Deforestation is the main cause  of unsustainability of agriculture

Price (R$)

100 80

Meat

60

Mato Grosso

40

Tocantins

20 o Agricultural expansion and deforestation rates:  0 both processes have long been connected in Brazil.  2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Example: Decoupling of deforestation and soy production 

1990s in the southern Amazon during the late 2000s o Peaks in cropland area and

Pará 2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Year

cattle herd size coinciding with Source: peaks in deforestation in Amazonia and in the Cerrado region. http://www.agrolink.com.br/cotacoes/

o

2000s

Historico.aspx Annual deforestation trends began  to diverge from fluctuations in cropland  Obs: Adjusted prices with IPCA index  using 2010 as the base year

area and cattle herd size. 

o Deforestation in all Brazilian biomes plunged to the lowest rates since monitoring began. o Nevertheless, the link between agricultural expansion and deforestation has weakened rather than disappeared completely ‐ as the small resurgence in Amazonian deforestation in 2008 by increases in cropland area and cattle Macedo et al., 2012herd - PNAsize.

Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação  Secretaria de Políticas e Programas de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento Coordenação Geral de Mudanças Globais de Clima 

Gross emissions by sector Emissions of 2,36 billion ton of CO2eq in 2005 

Emissions of 1,52 billion ton of CO2eq in 2012 

14% Energy Land Use  and Forest

Agriculture

2% 3%

29%

32%

18% 3%

63%

6% 29% Energy

Waste Treatment

Industrial Process

Agriculture

Land use and forests

Aguiar et al., 2013

Which future do we want for the Amazon? OBSERVED Deforested Area (%) in 2010

Scenario A

Scenario B

Sustainability?

Fragmentation?

declining deforestation rates

weakening of policy of recent years

Model Projections in 2050

Modeling gives a glimpse of the potential land use change dynamics up to 2050

Payment for Environmental Services (e.g., REDD+) Conserving Forests Through Periodic Grants:  “Bolsa Floresta”, Amazonas State, Brazil

How to use Amazon biodiversity sustainably and at the same time  benefiting the local population? The Açaí Case Economic output of açaí to Amazonia =  US$ 2.5 billion/year

Natural dye indicator for dental plaque

Net Economic Net Return of Açaí Production in the Amazon Basin Pará State :  US$ 206.6  to US$ 2,272.7 ha/yr (for  managed and unmanaged sites)

Jardim and Anderson (1987) Hiraoka (1994a, 1994b)  Brondizio, E.  (2007)

Local benefits, but value aggregation away from the region  Adding value through the commodity chain 1 hectare equivalent of açaí fruit $140,000

US$/ha of fruit production

$120,000

$100,000

$80,000

$60,000

$40,000

$20,000

$0

Exhibit ‘Acai: from local to global’: Mathers Museum of World Cultures, Indiana University Brondízio, 2014.

Regional resource economies do not translate into  revenue for municipalities Low HDI in açaí producing  municipalities

HDI Source: NYT

Source: Google

• … the pressure on social services, climate change impact,  health vulnerability, and pollution is felt up close and where  concrete solutions are demanded Brondízio, 2014.

We need a new economic sustainability paradigm for the tropical forests... “ To add value to the heart of the forest”. Bertha Becker Science and technology must  offer solutions for the emergence of an innovative,  local bioindustry Along with empowerment and mass education of the forest people.  

Merci! Thank you!

Duration of dry season (months) in the Arc of Deforestation Region. Hovmoller diagram of monthly rainfall from  1951‐2010 for southern Amazon.

75°W‐50°W,  15°S‐5°S

100 mm/month 

IPCC/AR5: CMIP3 models and downscaling experiments  show over southern Amazonia, northeastern Brazil and  eastern Amazonia, the maximum number of consecutive  dry days tends to augment, suggesting a longer dry  season. Marengo et al. (2011)

Madeira River Flood, SW Amazon,  2014 2400 2200

Madeira River Water Levels at Porto Velho 2014 hydrograph Peak flows of 65,000 m3/s

2000

Water Level (cm)

1997

1800

overflow

1670 1580

1600 1426

1400 1200

Maximum (2008‐2013)

1000 800 2014 cota de transbordamento Média (2008‐2013)

cota de alerta 1997 Mínimo (2008‐2013)

Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação  Secretaria de Políticas e Programas de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento Coordenação Geral de Mudanças Globais de Clima 

Brazilian GHG gross emissions: Period 1990-2012 in CO2eq 3000

2500

Tg CO2eq

2000

1500

Land use and forests

1000

Agriculture

500

Energy

0

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Energy

Waste Treatment

Industrial Process

Tg = million ton . GWP CH4: 21; GWP N2O: 310

Agriculture

Land use and forests

REGIONAL CLIMATE PROJECTIONS: PRECIPITATION CHANGE FOR THE AMAZON

41

Global terrestrial carbon sink is dominated by Tropical Forests

~30% goes into terrestrial ecosystems

Net CO2 flux (1901‐2010, kgC/m2/y

~50% of anthropogenic CO2 remains in the atmosphere

‐1 ‐

‐2 ‐

Carbon sink is largest in the  Tropics

‐3 ‐

‐4 ‐

‐80 Le Quéré et al. 2009 Nature Geoscience; Schimel et al. 2014 PNAS

‐40

0 Latitude

40

80

Science police interface for reducing deforestation Land Use Change Emissions of GHG Total global emissions: 39.4 ± 3.4 GtCO2 in 2013, 42% over 1990

Fossil fuel emissions continue to  go up, but emissions from  tropical land‐use change are  declining.

% of  land‐use change emissions to global emissions:  36% in 1960, 19% in 1990, 8% in 2013

Three different methods have been used to estimate land‐use change emissions, indicated here by  different shades of grey Source: CDIAC; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2014; Global Carbon Budget 2014