The Evolution of Tourism in Kenya John S. Akama Department of Tourism, Moi University, PO Box 1125, Eldoret, Kenya Until recently (the late 1980s) Kenya has been an important tourist destination, receiving over 6% of the total tourist arrivals to Africa. In 1989, the country received over 800,000 international tourists, and it was being predicted that if similar trends continued, the country could receive over 1 million tourists by the turn of the century. However, defying expert projections, Kenya’s tourism industry experienced abrupt and unforeseeable decline in the 1990s, and currently the future of the country’s tourism industry is uncertain. This paper provides a historical and contextual analysis of the evolution and development of tourism in Kenya. In order to put the evolution of tourism in Kenya in proper and broader context, the product life cycle model is used as an analytical tool. The model provides a conceptual framework to explain the complex processes of tourism development in Kenya over the years. However, as the study shows, while the product life cycle model is useful in explaining the development and evolution of tourism in retrospect, it is not a useful tool for focusing future trends in tourism development.
Introduction The study begins with an introduction of broader socioeconomic issues confronting the development of tourism in the Third World in general and Kenya in particular, and an over-view of the main components and applicability of the destination life cycle model. This is followed by a longitudinal identification and evaluation of the evolutionary stages of tourism development in Kenya, namely: exploration, colonial involvement, post-colonial development, consolidation and premature decline with each stage conforming to distinct developmental and structural characteristics. Consequently, the identification and classification of the five stages of tourism development in Kenya derives from recognisable and specific characteristics of each stage, including the nature and volume of tourists, the level of external involvement in tourism development, identified shifts and changes in tourism policy and planning strategy, and the significance of tourism in the national economy. Finally, the research provides a contextual analysis and explanation as to why the tourism evolution processes in Kenya deviate from the ideal model as postulated by Butler (1980). The Kenya case study indicates that the complex processes of tourism development (which are usually influenced by myriad endogenous and exogenous factors and varied tourism stakeholders) may not conform to a simple unilinear model. In this regard, although the concept of tourism development stages appears to be intrinsically and practically viable, different tourism areas may not conform to identical stages of evolution. Most of the information used in this research was acquired from government policy documents, national development plans, Kenya Public University Libraries, newspaper reports, informal discussions and dialogue with stakeholders in the tourism industry, and personal observations. Kenya has embraced tourism as a tool for socioeconomic development, as is 0966-9582/99/01 0006-20 $10.00/0 JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABLE TOURISM
©1999 J.S. Akama Vol. 7, No. 1, 1999
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the case with many Third World countries. In the short term, Third World governments often spearhead the development of tourism as a quick and reliable source of much sought after foreign exchange receipts, job creation and economic growth. It is usually envisaged that, in the long term, tourism development will contribute to economic diversification and, in consequence, will reduce excessive over-dependency on the export of conventional raw materials. This is due to the fact that because the consumption of tourism products occurs at the place of production it has potential multiplier effects on the local, regional and national economy, through its various possible linkages and associations with other industries (i.e. transport, agriculture, fishery, forestry, construction, handicraft). Further, classical economists and an increasing number of development experts and political leaders continue to recommend tourism as a viable development option, particularly for the economically depressed and underdeveloped regions of the world that have otherwise little development potential. Many of the resource scarce countries are located in the South and in the tropical region. It is argued that these countries have a comparative advantage for tourism development, particularly for the attractions of international tourists from developed Northern countries, due to their ideal weather conditions combined with unique tourist attractions, such as pristine beaches, diverse wildlife, scenic landforms and unique indigenous cultural heritage. However, there is guarded sceptism among tourism researchers concerning the efficacy of tourism as a tool for social and economic development in Third World countries (Britton, 1980, 1982; Oglethorpe, 1984; Bachmann, 1988; Sinclair, 1990). Butler (1980), for instance, postulates that without coherent and comprehensive planning strategies and appropriate tourism policy responses, destination areas are destined to confront eventual decline and possible collapse. This contention is particularly pertinent to many Third World countries, especially in Africa, where tourism development is characterised by inherent shortfalls in long-term strategic planning, deteriorating infrastructure, political and economic instability, increasing external control, and weak backward and forward linkage with other economic sectors (Bachmann, 1988; Debbage, 1990; Agarwal, 1997). Indeed, tourism is a highly elastic and unstable industry which is usually influenced by diverse exogenous and extraneous factors that are beyond the control of tourism planners and policy-makers, including political instability, breakdown of law and order, bad press publicity, changing client needs and demands, economic recession and fluctuation in international oil prices. Furthermore, proponents of dependency theory contend that the development of tourism in the Third World conforms to historical and economic structures of economic dependence (Broweth, 1979; Britton, 1982; Oglethorpe, 1984; Oppermann, 1992). In this regard, the establishment and development of tourism in most Third World countries is usually externally oriented and controlled, and mainly responds to external market demands. In consequence, the nature of international tourism as a ‘luxury and pleasure seeking industry’ usually entails rich tourists from the metropolis (mainly from developed Northern countries) visiting and coming to enjoy tourist attractions in the periphery (mainly the poor and resource scarce countries in the South). These forms of tourism development
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accentuate the economic structure of dependency on external market demand, and also lead to ‘alien’ development (i.e. the establishment of tourism resorts in Third World countries) to which local people cannot relate and respond, both socially and economically (Oglethorpe, 1984; Williams, 1993). In consequence, the management and long-term sustenance of the tourism establishment depends on external control and support. Moreover, the initial investment costs for the large-scale, capital intensive tourism projects are usually too high for Third World governments and indigenous investors and, therefore, must depend on external capital investment mainly from multinational conglomerates. These structures of economic dependency usually lead to high leakages of Third World tourism revenues to external sources (Britton, 1980, 1982; Oglethorpe, 1984; Oppermann, 1992). In this regard, not much of the tourism revenues remain in the Third World to be utilised in various processes of socioeconomic development. Recent global economic trends also indicate that Third World economies are highly vulnerable and are increasingly being affected by processes of economic globalisation and increasing dominance and control by the multinational corporations of global markets. As Debbage (1990: 515) postulates, ‘the increasing oligopolistic structure of the international tourism industry indicates the intrinsic value of the profit cycle in explaining how oligopoly can shape the product-cycle of a resort’. In consequence, the development of tourism, particularly in the Third World, is increasingly being influenced by unpredictable processes of global oligopoly (i.e. the increasing control of the international tourism market by a small number of multinational companies). The multinational tourism and travel companies can, for instance, shift international tourism demand among various undifferentiated Third World destinations, depending on emerging profit considerations, thus causing unforeseeable disruption to tourism development and to evolutionary trends of Third World destination areas. Kenya provides a good example of a Third World country which has embraced tourism as an important strategy for socioeconomic development. At independence, the Kenya government depended almost exclusively on a few export crops, mainly tea and coffee, for foreign exchange earnings and economic development. However, over the years, prices of agricultural products in the world market, have fallen relative (and in many cases absolutely) in relation to manufactured goods. Thus, particularly from the late 1960s, the government has experienced persistent shortfalls in foreign exchange earnings, due to decreased receipts from export crops. In consequence, Kenya has increasingly turned to the development of tourism as an alternative source of foreign exchange earnings, job creation and economic growth, as is the case with many resources-scarce Third World countries. Though tourism has become a major socioeconomic phenomenon in Kenya, no study has been carried out which provides a broad historical and contextual analysis concerning the development and evolution of tourism in the country. Most of the existing studies have mainly concentrated on the analysis of the economic impacts of tourism development in Kenya, whereas not much is known concerning the evolutionary trends and their possible future implications for Kenya’s tourism development.
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Brief Over-view of Destination Life Cycle Model The model of product life cycle is widely applied in business and market-oriented research to explain the development and evolution of product sales. The model postulates that product sales proceed through various discernible stages, including the initial stage of product introduction, growth, maturity and eventual decline (Levitt, 1965; Kotler, 1980; Cooper & Jackson, 1989; Benedetto & Bojanic, 1993). However, the application of the product life cycle concept in tourism research is quite recent. The initial application of the model to the evolution of tourism was by Butler in 1980. Butler contends that as is the case with industrial products, it is possible to trace a life cycle for tourist destinations (Figure 1). Exploration —
The destination is remote and exotic and is mainly visited by a few adventurers.
Involvement —
There is increasing local and government initiative to provide tourism facilities.
Development —
Large volumes of tourists arrive in the destination and tourism begins to be dominated by outside interests.
Consolidation —
The destination becomes a fully fledged part of domestic and international tourism. Also, tourism becomes a dominant economic sector.
Stagnation —
The tourism threshold is reached, and the destination is no longer fashionable.
Decline —
The traditional source of tourists is lost to newer and emerging markets.
Figure 1 Summary of Butler’s destination life cycle model
However, in the application of the product life cycle model to tourism, the volume of visitors in a destination replaces the number of product sales (Kotler, 1980; Hovinen, 1981; Strapp, 1988). In consequence, it is possible to trace both the development and evolution of destination area in terms of the types and volume of visitors, and also in terms of tourism infrastructure and management functions. In recent years, an increasing number of tourism researchers have applied the destination life cycle model to explain the development and evolution of destination areas in different parts of the world (Butler, 1980; Haywood, 1986; Cooper, 1990; Getz, 1992). Despite widespread application of the destination life cycle model in the analysis of the evolution of destination areas in different parts of the world, the model’s validity, applicability and universality is yet to be conclusively proven. Critics of the model have argued that the original framework, as postulated by Butler (1980), is over-simplified and, in consequence, may not be operationalised to provide explanation of the complex phenomenon concerning the development of tourism in the real world (Haywood, 1986; Getz, 1992; Agarwal, 1997; Strapp, 1998). Some of the most striking shortfalls to the framework include:
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(1) The model is silent as to what should be considered to be the specific spatial unit/area of analysis (i.e. should the unit area of analysis be a country, region, district or town, etc.) (2) It does not indicate as to whether destination areas have to undergo all the stipulated evolutionary stages. (3) Most often, it is extremely difficult to establish the specific time-frame when a destination area moves from one evolutionary stage to the subsequent stage. Furthermore, due to internal dynamics of destination areas and complex exogenous variables impacting on tourist destinations, the concept of product life cycle is most likely to be destination specific. Complex endogenous factors, such as rate of development, nature of tourism product, accessibility and existing government policy, and diverse exogenous variables — including competition, flow of multinational investment and dynamic product demand factors — influence the type and rate of development to the destination area. Due to the unpredictable nature of these internal and external factors which influence the sequence and rate of destination area development, it may be inappropriate to provide a holistic application of the model to destination development. As the Kenya case study shows, tourism development in the Third World and in Africa, in particular, is increasingly being impacted by dominant exogenous sociopolitical and economic factors. This is due to at least three processes. Firstly, tourism development in the Third World depends largely on external market demands which are based in the developed North. Secondly, large-scale, capital intensive tourism projects in Third World countries have usually been established through multinational capital investment, and often are under foreign control and management. Morever, due to comparative advantage in contract negotiation and financial leverage, multinational corporations tend to determine the terms and conditions of project contracts and the types of tourism projects to be initiated in the Third World. Thirdly, the economic strength of ‘multinational oligopoly’ is increasing being felt in Third World tourism development. This is the increasing control of the international tourism market by a small number of multinational tourism and travel companies. The multinational tourism companies are capable of shifting international tourism market demands among various undifferentiated tourist destinations. In consequence, extraneous sociopolitical and economic incidents, such as decreases in profit margins and political insecurity (whether real or imagined) in a Third world destination, may cause immediate and abrupt disruption and shifts of tourist demand to another undifferentiated destination. As this research shows, these extraneous factors caused the abrupt and premature decline of Kenya’s tourism and hospitality industry.
Exploration Stage (1880–1900) Prior to the establishment of British colonial rule in the late nineteenth century, Kenya and the rest of East Africa were little known to the outside world. Consequently, apart from Arab fortune seekers (in search of ivory and slaves) who had penetrated the East Africa hinterland as early as the tenth century AD , few people from other parts of the world ventured into the East Africa interior
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before the turn of the century (Kenya Government, 1924; Simon, 1962; Mazrui, 1986). A number of factors contributed to this status. For one, most indigenous communities had not evolved centralised institutions of socioeconomic and political governance capable of maintaining law and order over a wide territory. In consequence, the issue of insecurity (whether real or imagined) discouraged most of the potential travellers from venturing into the East African hinterland (Jackson, 1963). Furthermore, basic transport infrastructure, including roads and a railway network, and conventional accommodation and hospitality facilities were non-existent, except perhaps in a few locations along the East Africa coast, particularly in Mombasa, Zanzibar and Malindi. Thus pioneer travellers into the East Africa interior mainly used on-foot caravan routes to trek into the hinterland. Obviously, this mode of travel was tiring and usually took several weeks to accomplish. Consequently until the turn of the century, East Africa was mainly perceived in the outside world as a land of the ‘unknown, a place inhabited by exotic and hostile Africa tribes such as the Maasai and the Sukuma, and dangerous wild animals’ (Kenya Government, 1924). The few Westerners who dared to enture into the Africa hinterland during this period were not the usual or average travellers. These were ‘dare-devil’ adventurers who can be classified within Plog’s (1973) tourist topology as ‘allocentric’ — people who were driven by the urge to travel to the unknown to explore and make new discoveries, and possibly to spread Western civilisation and religion (Jackson, 1963; Mazrui, 1986). These pioneer travellers to Africa include such legendary personalities as David Livingstone, Henry Morton Stanley, John Kraft, Samuel Baker, John Rabmann, County Trek and Joseph Thomson. Most of these pioneer travellers and adventurers have been immortalised in history and adventure books, and in adventure movies. In consequence, this stage conforms to the ideal model as postulated by Butler (1980). During this period the East Africa region was remote and exotic, and characterised by the non-existence of tourism and hospitality infrastructure. Thus, the region was dominated by pristine wilderness and a diversity of wildlife species, and only a few pioneer adventure seekers dared to venture into the East African hinterland.
Colonial Involvement 1900–1962 Colonial rule was formerly established over the East Africa protectorate (the present Kenya) on 15 June 1895. The creation of centralised political and socioeconomic institutions of governance led to improved security and the development of a wider sociopolitical order (i.e. the creation of a geopolitical state). In addition, the colonial government undertook to develop basic transport and communication infrastructures so as to open-up the East Africa hinterland for political and economic development (Kenya Government, 1924; Jackson, 1963). Of particular significance was the construction of the Kenya-Uganda Railway, which became the main transportation artery into the East Africa hinterland. Further, the first conventional hotel and lodge facilities were built by resident European developers during this period, including Hotel Stanley (the present New Stanley Hotel) in 1890, the Nairobi Club in 1891, the Norfolk Hotel in 1904, and the Commercial and Express Hotel in 1906. Most of the accommo-
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dation and hospitality facilities were built in Nairobi, which became the hub of commerce, business and administration in the East Africa region (Bosire, 1995). In his model, Butler (1980) postulates that during the involvement stage, there is usually increased local involvement in the provision of tourism and hospitality facilities. However, in most cases, although this evolutionary scenario is tenable in Western societies, this is not the case in most Third World societies which experienced colonial rule. In most colonial societies, the initial development of tourism facilities is most likely to be initiated by resident expatriates. This is a distinct characteristic in which the evolution of tourism in non-Western societies deviates from the ideal model. Harrison (1995) and Douglas (1997), for instance have found similar characteristics in their analysis of the development of tourism in Swaziland and Melanesia respectively. Thus, it appears that in most non-Western societies which underwent colonial rule, external interest groups play a very crucial role in the development of tourism from the start. In the case of Kenya, indigenous Africans had no expertise nor the initial capital required to initiate and manage tourism and hospitality facilities. In consequence, from the very beginning, the development of tourism and hospitality facilities in Kenya was mainly initiated by resident European developers and the colonial government. Further, during this stage there was minimal social interaction between pioneer Western travellers and indigenous Kenyans. Similar tourism characteristics have been found in other Third World destinations (see Harrison, 1995; Douglas, 1997). Perhaps the only form of interaction which existed between the class in power and the governed was a ‘Master-Servant’ relationship. Africans were mainly hired to work in servile positions as gardeners, cleaners, waiters, cooks and guards. Consequently, with the opening up of the East African hinterland and establishment of basic transport and hospitality infrastructure, an increasing number of Western adventure seekers, professional and amateur safari hunters, and other trophy seekers started to venture into the hinterland (Kenya Government, 1957; Graham, 1973; Anderson, 1986). Furthermore, the creation of colonial institutions of governance engendered conditions of relative sociopolitical stability and the maintenance of law and order, which encouraged pioneer travellers to venture into the East Africa hinterland. A major recreational activity undertaken by most Westerners who ventured into the East Africa hinterland was big-game safari hunting. In fact, the period between 1900–1945 in East Africa is generally referred to in popular literature as the ‘Era of Big Game Hunting’. It has been noted that during the initial period of European colonialism in Africa, the phenomenon of big-game hunting was perceived as a major symbol of European dominance over nature in general and society in particular. In consequence, big-game hunting was a major determinant of class and sociopolitical power (Anderson, 1987; Mackenzie, 1987). Thus, most of the pioneer Westerners who undertook safari hunting expeditions in Africa were mainly affluent travellers, high-ranking government officials, politicians and members of the aristocracy. Some of the famous pioneer travellers to East Africa and big-game safari hunters include such people as Theodore Roosevelt, John Mauir, Frederick
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Luggard, Fredrick Jackson, Abel Chapman, William Baullie, Geoffrey Archer and Robert Coryndon (Anderson, 1987). For instance in his most widely published safari to East Africa, which lasted between April 1909 and March 1910, the then US President Theodore Roosevelt travelled with over 200 trackers, skinners, porters and gun bearers. Roosevelt shot, preserved and shipped to Washington DC more than 3000 specimens of African game. Most of the pioneer safari hunters provided detailed accounts of their hunting exploits whenever they return to the West. Others wrote adventure books based on their big-game hunting exploits (Nash, 1982; Mackenzie, 1987). For instance, a British aristocrat and a professional hunter, Abel Chapman, wrote an adventure classic in 1908 entitled On Safari, where he recounts his spectacular hunting escapades in the East African savannas. He argues here that the big game traveller–sportsman was the best customer of the East Africa colony and game was its best asset (Nash, 1982). In the following year, 1909, an American big-game hunter, William Baullie, wrote another hunting classic titled The Master of the Game, with an introduction by Theodore Roosevelt. Part of the book’s introduction read, ‘there were still a few remote places (on the face of the earth) where one had to hunt in order to eat and where settlers had to wage war against the game in the manner of the primitive man’ (Nash, 1982: 354). These safari hunting classics are still popular, and continue to reinforce Western perceptions and images of East Africa as a wildlife ‘Eden’. A distinctive characteristic during this period was the beginning of organised and institutionalised development and promotion of tourism involving both the public and private sector. The government, for instance, started to formulate and promulgate various legislation aimed at the protection of Kenya’s unique wildlife resources, and the promotion of organised recreational activities in protected wildlife parks and reserves (Kenya Government, 1957; Achiron & Wilkinson, 1986). Thus it was realised that the diverse arrays of African Savanna Wildlife had great potential for tourism development. In consequence, the government created pioneer national parks in Kenya, including Nairobi in 1946, Amboseli in 1947, Tsavo in 1948 and Mt Kenya in 1949. According to state legislation, the parks were to be protected public lands, ‘set aside for the propagation, protection and preservation of objects of aesthetic, geological, prehistoric, historic, archaeological or scientific interest for the benefit and advantage of the general public’ (Simon, 1962; Lusigi, 1978; Akama, 1996). In order to market and promote tourism, the government in collaboration with conservation organisations, formed the East Africa Travel and Tourism Association (EATTA) in 1948 (Ouma, 1982). The association was mandated to coordinate the development and promotion of tourism in East Africa. Soon after its creation, EATTA sought affiliation with the International Union of Official Travel Organisations (IUTO). Further, the association adopted international guidelines on tourism management, promotion and marketing. The association started to collect, organise and disseminate important information on East Africa tourism attractions and existing hospitality facilities. The information was disseminated to tour and travel companies, and travellers, both in Africa and the West. Furthermore, from the 1950s, EATTA. started implementing new tourism policies whose aim was to shift tourism activities in national parks and reserves
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from sports-hunting to wildlife viewing and photographing. The association also started advocating the development of beach tourism at the coast. As stated earlier, initially wildlife tourism in East Africa was mainly the preserve of very rich and affluent individuals who could afford the high costs involved in undertaking big-game hunting expeditions. Thus, it was envisaged that the promotion and marketing of wildlife viewing and photographing and beach tourism could encourage more international tourists to visit East Africa. This is mainly because, unlike sports-hunting, wildlife viewing and photographing and also beach tourism are generally within the financial reach of most middle-class people. Thus, it was expected that by promoting and marketing a diversified tourism product, the volume of visitors and tourism revenues could increase (Graham, 1973; Ouma, 1982). However, although the volume of international tourist arrivals to Kenya and other East Africa destinations started to increase steadily from the 1950s as a result of this policy shift, the absolute number of tourist arrivals remained relatively low. For instance, the number of tourist arrivals to Kenya in 1960 was only 35,800 (see Table 1). The main constraint, during this period, was the limited supply of tourism and hospitality facilities both at the coast and in the inland wildlife parks and reserves. Furthermore, international air transport was not well developed during this period. Table 1 Tourist arrivals and revenue, 1955–1968 Year 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968
Arrivals (in ‘000’) 39.54 40.46 43.12 41.20 44.93 35.80 42.04 49.92 61.35 65.54 81.45 106.52 117.15 262.00
Revenue (million Kenya shillings) – – – – – 86 96 110 144 140 – – 290 328
Source: Ouma, 1982
Post-colonial Development 1963–1987 At the attainment of independence in 1963, the young nation was eager to gain foreign exchange receipts to facilitate economic development and job creation. Initially, the country depended almost exclusively on export crops, mainly coffee and tea, for foreign exchange earnings. However, from the mid-1960s, prices of agricultural products in the world market fell drastically and sometimes absolutely relative to manufactured goods (Migot-Adholla, 1984).
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It was within this national and international socioeconomic context that the Kenya government realised that the country had an already existing ‘commodity’ which could be readily marketed to generate much sought after foreign exchange and to create jobs. The alternative commodity was the country’s unique tourism attractions, particularly the wildlife heritage, and the pristine and glittering white beaches. The government undertook specific policy initiatives to promote the rapid expansion of tourism. In 1965, the government established the Kenya Tourism Development Corporation (KTDC) (a quasi-government organisation) to be in charge of tourism investment initiatives, and to monitor the establishment and operation of tourism and hospitality facilities (Dieke, 1991). It was envisaged that the country’s pristine beach and wildlife attractions coupled with improved tourism and hospitality facilities could attract an increasing number of international tourists, and their expenditure could earn the country much sought after foreign receipts. Recognising the economic importance of the tourism industry, the government established the Ministry of Tourism and Wildlife (MTW) in 1966. The new ministry was to be in charge of the overall formulation and implementation of the country’s tourism policy. Further, the ministry was mandated to manage Kenya’s tourism and wildlife resources, and was also supposed to liaise with other government departments (i.e. agriculture, forestry, commerce and transport) whose activities could impinge on the allocation and development of tourism resources. In order to accelerate the development of tourism and hospitality facilities, the Ministry of Tourism and Wildlife initiated a tourism ‘Master-Plan’, whose aim was to attract increased foreign capital investment through financial incentives such as tax concessions, favourable fiscal policies for capital investment, and profit repatriation (Bachmann, 1988; Sinclair, 1990). Consequently, during this stage the structure and characteristics of tourism development in Kenya shifted from small-scale public and private enterprise to the establishment of large-scale tourism projects which were mainly financed by external multinational investors. The new tourism policy initiative succeeded in attracting foreign and multinational investment in the Kenyan tourism industry. In 1967, for instance, the International Finance Corporation (IFC), the privatelending arm of the World Bank in collaboration with the Inter-Continental Hotel Corporation, gave Kenya a concessionary loan of over US$3 million to be used for the development of tourist facilities in Nairobi. However, a distinctive feature of foreign tourism capital investment in Kenya is the fact that most of the investments were spatially concentrated in central places mainly in Mombasa, Nairobi and in the popular wildlife parks and reserves, such as Maasai Mara, Amboseli and Tsavo (Table 2). This is probably due to the fact that these locations are perceived by investors as having the highest potential for immediate profit returns since they attract most of the international tourists who visit Kenya. Thus, for instance, from the early 1970s there was rapid development of tourism and hospitality facilities on the Kenyan coast. Within a period of 10 years, about 10,000 hotel beds in about 500 hotels were added to existing coastal hotel establishments (Sinclair, 1990). Furthermore, even at the coast itself, the location of these facilities
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Table 2 Supply of tourism enterprises, 1984 (Percentage enterprises in different provinces) Province Nairobi Coast Rift Valley Central Eastern North Eastern Nyanza Western
Hotels 28 49 8 9 2 0 4 1
Tour operations 50 43 5 1 0 0 1 0
Curio Shops 13 85 2 0 0 0 0
Sources: Kenya Government, 1985
is spatially concentrated within a few central places, mainly in Mombasa, Malindi and Diani Beach. Although it can be argued that government tourism policy initiatives created an enabling sociopolitical environment for the development and expansion of the country’s tourism and hospitality facilities, endogenous factors alone did not cause the dramatic increase in the volume of international tourist arrivals to Kenya. The initial increase in the number of international tourist arrivals to Kenya, especially from the 1960s, can be best explained by broader exogenous factors. In fact, the 1960s was a major landmark in the development and expansion of international tourism in general. This phenomenon of rapid expansion of international tourism which also spread to Third World countries in general and Kenya in particular was mainly caused by external factors in the major tourist generating countries in the North. These external factors include the improvement in international flight scheduling and air-ticket price adjustments, which made it possible for an increasing number of people in the North to travel to far-off tourist destinations. Furthermore, the introduction by professional tour and travel companies of organised holiday packages helped reduce costs of international travel and also minimised the risks and uncertainties associated with individualised private travel arrangements, especially when travelling to far-off destinations. In consequence, these external factors, coupled with increases in levels of disposable income in the North, resulted in accelerated development and expansion of international travel to Third World tourist destinations.
Consolidation 1988–1992 By 1988 Kenya’s tourism and hospitality industry was relatively well developed and tourism had became the leading economic sector. The number of international tourist arrivals had increased more than ten-fold, from 51,000 visitor arrivals in 1960 to over 800,000 in the late 1980s (Kenya Government, 1989). Most of these tourists arrived in prearranged tour packages. The stated government tourism policy is to reach a target of over one million international tourist arrivals by the turn of the century. Meanwhile, the country’s total tourism revenues increased from K£27 million in 1970 to over K£1 billion in the late 1980s, thus for the first time surpassing the combined earnings from tea and coffee
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(Kenya’s leading export crops) (see Table 3). The total tourism earnings represented over 12% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the industry provided over 120,000 direct jobs for Kenyans (Sinclair, 1990). Table 3 Earnings from coffee, tea and tourism (billion Kenyan Shillings) Year Coffee Tea Tourism
1990 4.07 6.94 10.66
1991 4.05 7.80 11.88
1992 4.37 8.93 14.26
1993 7.70 19.87 14.44
1994 5.87 – 14.05
Source: Kenya Economic Survey, 1995
A significant development in Kenya’s tourism industry during this period is the increased ownership and management of the country’s tourism and hospitality facilities by foreign and multinational companies. Some of the international tourism companies which have invested in Kenya’s tourism and hospitality industry include Hayes and Jarvis, Lonhro Corporations, United Tour Companies, Kuoni, Africa Club, Universal Safari Tours, Polmans, France Russo and Grand Viaggi. The multinational tourism companies have established first-class starred hotel and lodge facilities, particularly in Mombasa, Nairobi, Malindi and in the country’s popular national parks and reserves. Furthermore, it has been estimated that over 50% of Kenya’s tourism and hospitality establishment in the major tourist centres is under foreign ownership and management (Sinclair, 1990; Sindiga, 1996). The state tourism policy mainly promoted the development of large-scale tourism projects such as beach resorts, high-rise hotels, lodges and restaurants. These forms of capital intense programmes tend to preclude local participation in tourism project design and management and local use of tourism resources. The following quotation summarises the nature of Kenya’s tourism and hospitality industry: The ground operation of the country’s tourism industry reflects (this) outward-orientation. Typically a tour operator sends a micro-bus to the airport to collect tourists. Such visitors may be in an inclusive package tour already paid for overseas. The tour firms, for example, Abercrombie and Kent, United Tour Company, Kuoni Worldwide, Thomas Cook, and Hayes and Jarvis, would likely be foreign owned, or a subsidiary of a foreign company. The firm takes the tourists to an assigned hotel in Nairobi or Mombasa for an overnight stay. On the following day, the tour operators take the tourists to a wildlife safari in one of the national parks. This safari lasts several days. The average length of stay for departing tourists in 1992 was 13.4 days ¼ At the end of the tour, the process is re-enacted in preparation for departure from the country. (Sindiga, 1996: 29) Furthermore, the promotion and marketing of Kenya’s tourism product in tourist generating countries is mainly under the control of overseas tour operators and travel companies. In order to maximise their profit margin, the overseas tour companies mainly market inclusive tour packages to Kenya. In
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these forms of travel arrangements, prospective visitors pay overseas tour companies for a complete travel package. The payment arrangements include almost all travel components, such as air ticket, food, accommodation and recreational activities. It has been estimated that in these forms of tour packages leakages of tourism receipts to overseas companies may range between 40% and 70% (Kenya Government, 1989; Sinclair, 1990). Consequently, there is external control in almost all components of Kenya’s tourism product, including the design and packaging of the tourism product, provision of hospitality services, transport and communication arrangements, and tourism product promotion and marketing. These forms of tourism development have resulted in high leakages of the tourism revenues to external sources.
Premature Decline There is increasing indication that Kenya’s tourism industry is currently experiencing unprecedented decline. The increased room and hotel beds supply, particularly in the late 1980s, was not accompanied by increased demand for the country’s tourism product. Instead, the general trend has been low bed occupancy of less than 50% (Table 4). It has been noted that due to the problem of low bed occupancy most hotels and lodges, particularly at the coast, have been offering rock bottom prices in order for them to balance their books and break-even (Sinclair, 1990; Kenya Government, 1995, 1996; Sindiga, 1996). Hotel and lodge facilities which, for instance, normally charge between Kshs 2980 to 3700 per person per day full board, currently offer concessionary rates of less that half the normal prices, especially during the low season, which lasts from April to July (Sindiga, 1996). Table 4 Hotel bed capacity and occupancy 1981–1993 Year 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993
Coast Nairobi Game Lodges Others No. of beds Occu. (%) No. of beds Occu. (%) No. of beds Occu. (%) No. of beds Occu. (%) 9893 11,118 11,389 11,219 11,238 11,887 12,267 12,659 13,304 15,512 178,803 163,819 67,915
66.0 59.8 56.2 59.0 59.6 62.0 58.5 58.7 55.0 58.0 60.0 56.3 63.3
8082 8202 8257 8250 7730 7853 7784 7014 7710 7764 67,181 54,844 48,268
50.1 46.8 44.0 46.4 52.7 48.5 50.2 55.5 51.0 50.5 53.5 45.5 61.5
2238 2245 2371 2587 2634 2755 2769 2730 3436 3536 3402 2611 3201
55.1 52.0 49.0 52.9 52.2 52.0 54.5 58.3 57.8 59.8 47.7 55.1 60.5
3154 3150 3183 3155 3123 3180 3150 4184 5367 5658 56,521 54,844 48,268
34.8 32.8 33.0 32.0 33.9 35.1 36.3 27.6 39.4 38.8 48.8 31.2 34.2
Note: Occupancy rate (%) is the number of occupied bed nights divided by the yearly available number of bed nights ( from 1991 hotel bed enumeration included a broad category of hotels, i.e. non-star to Five-star. Source: Kenya Government, 1995
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In consequence, the 1990s have been particularly bad for Kenya’s tourism industry. As Johnstone (1996) asserts, ‘for the past four years (1992–1996) an aura of resigned hopelessness has prevailed over Kenya’s tourism industry as arrival figures have dropped steadily’. Despite recent price adjustments aimed at attracting more visitors, there has been a downwards spiral in the number of international tourist arrivals to Kenya. In 1995, for instance, there was a 20% decline in international tourist arrivals. In 1997, the country received about 500,000 international tourists, down from over 800,000 arrivals in 1989 (Johnstone, 1996). The coastal region (which usually receives over 60% of Kenya’s international tourist arrivals) has been the worst hit. Last year (1997), during the peak season at the coast (December to April) there was a major decline of almost 50%, from 250,000 international tourist arrivals in the previous year (1996) to less than 125,000 arrivals (Kwena, 1997). The poor performance of coastal tourism has had a spiral negative impact on other tourism related subsectors, including handicraft, car rental, sports-fishing, boating, construction and retail. Consequently, thousands of workers in the tourism sector have been laid-off. Similar trends have also been observed in most of Kenya’s major tourism centres, including Nairobi and the popular wildlife parks, such as Maasai Mara, Amboseli and Tsavo. There are two main factors that can be said to be responsible for the premature decline of Kenya’s tourism and hospitality industry: the presumed reduction of the quality of country’s tourism product, and the recent perception of Kenya as an insecure tourist destination.
Reduction of the quality of Kenya’s tourism product Probably the laissez-faire policy particularly during the development stage saw the seeds of the premature decline of Kenya’s tourism industry. The rapid development of tourism was characterised by an unplanned and haphazard mushrooming of tourism and hospitality facilities due to the lack of appropriate land-use policies and regulations governing the location and distribution of tourism and hospitality facilities and infrastructure (Sinclair, 1990; Dieke, 1991; Sindiga, 1996). In consequence, driven by the profit margin, most private and multinational tourism investors tended to put their capital investments in locations perceived to have high potential for quick profit returns. These areas are mainly on the Coast, in Nairobi and in the few popular wildlife parks and reserves, such as Maasai Mara, Amboseli and Tsavo. This is probably due to the fact that these locations are perceived by tourism investors as having the highest potential for immediate profit returns since they attract most of the international tourists who visit Kenya (Tables 5) (Sinclair, 1990; Kibera, 1994). Unplanned and haphazard mushrooming of tourism and hospitality facilities in fragile coastal and marine ecosystem has, for instance, resulted in severe problems of resource degradation. Hotels have been constructed that interfere with delicate marine ecosystems (lagoons, fragile sandy beaches and coral reefs) without taking into consideration the environmental impacts of those facilities (Visser & Njuguna, 1992). High concentrations of tourists in fragile marine environments has led to problems of overcrowding, trampling and over exploitation of marine resources, such as coral reef, mollusk shells and marine
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Table 5 Number of visitors to national parks and reserves, 1990–95 (in thousands)
Nairobi Animal Orphanage Amboseli Tsavo (West) Tsavo (East) Aberdare Lake Nakuru Masai Mara Malindi Marine Lake Bogoria Meru Shimba Hills Mount Kenya Samburu Kisite Mombasa Marine Watamu Marine Hell’s Gate Impala Sanctuary Other Total
1990 152.8 213.8 237.2 78.6 127.7 66.6 174.2 180.5 35.6 53.8 11.1 60.0 18.7 – 27.1 29.1 20.5 31.1 – 13.8 1532.2
1991 168.8 217.6 189.2 119.3 135.9 56.3 174.4 143.3 33.0 53.0 9.1 38.2 14.6 – 33.1 54.6 22.0 41.3 – 14.8 1518.5
1992 156.4 173.2 168.3 103.1 125.5 63.6 139.8 138.1 44.2 39.4 7.1 31.9 15.5 – 28.0 57.8 27.0 34.2 – 14.0 1367.1
1993 164.6 155.3 121.1 102.9 135.8 60.8 178.6 133.1 41.1 37.2 7.4 24.8 18.0 21.5 27.5 43.3 31.7 47.4 59.1 16.6 1427.8
1994 163.2 182.0 159.5 105.4 132.4 60.2 164.3 138.2 39.2 43.2 7.9 31.6 17.2 9.2 34.8 48.0 32.1 44.9 5.5 9.6 1428.6
1995 113.5 212.1 114.8 93.1 228.8 70.1 166.8 133.2 38.8 14.2 7.3 20.0 17.2 9.1 32.4 32.9 16.1 50.1 3.5 18.9 1428.9
Source: Kenya Economic Survey, 1996
turtles (Visser and Njuguna, 1992). In consequence, the quality of the coastal tourist product is increasingly being reduced. Partly due to increasing degradation and reduction of the quality of Kenya’s tourism product, the country is experiencing severe problems of competition as more tourists are switching to countries in the region which offer similar tourist attractions. These include countries such as Zimbabwe, Botswana, Swaziland. Tanzania and Uganda.
The recent perception of Kenya as an insecure tourist destination Perhaps, the underlying factor which has contributed most substantially to the rapid development of tourism in Kenya, particularly in the 1970s and 1980s, is that, unlike its neighbours in Eastern Africa which were experiencing political turmoil and civil disorder, the country remained relatively stable. In consequence, to the international tourists and multinational tourism investors, Kenya was generally perceived as an ‘island’ of economic and political stability in a‘sea’ of political turmoil in the African continent. It was this tranquil image, among other factors, which influenced an increasing number of international tourists to visit Kenya. Furthermore, the perceived sociopolitical and economic tranquillity in Kenya encouraged an increasing number of multinational companies to invest in the country’s tourism industry. Consequently, the initial post-independence image of political stability and social order helped boost the international tourist market for Kenya as one of the leading tourist destination in Africa. However, ironically, in recent years and particularly in the 1990s, Kenya is
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increasingly being perceived as an insecure destination, whereas the opposite is the case with many countries in the region, such as Botswana, Uganda and Tanzania. This is due to the fact that unlike Kenya, the sociopolitical situation in these countries has improved considerably in recent years. Since the opening-up of Kenya’s political space (i.e. the advent of multi-party democracy) in 1991, there have been increasing sociopolitical feuds and civic strife as different political groups (which are mainly based on ethnic affiliations instead of ideological or philosophical orientation) attempt to seize the reins of power. In many instances, the political feuds have led to physical confrontation and bloodshed. Thus in recent years, the so-called ‘politically instigated violence’ has been experienced with increasing frequency in different parts of the country, including the major tourism centres such as Mombasa, Malindi, Diani and Nairobi. Furthermore, accompanying the recent waves of violence is increasing levels of crime and a general breakdown of law and order in many parts of Kenya. With recent advances in electronic media, whenever these ugly incidents of political disorder and civic unrest occur, they are often widely, and almost instantaneously covered in Western media. In consequence, tourists and overseas investors are increasingly receiving disparaging news reports concerning Kenya. Thus, it is no coincidence that whenever there are reports in Western mass media concerning political unrest in Kenya, there are always immediate and massive cancellations of advanced booking of visits to the country due to the perceived insecurity. Worse yet, most governments in the main tourist source countries in Europe and North America are increasingly issuing travel advisory warnings to their citizens who are planning to visit Kenya. The travel advisory warnings are usually taken very seriously, and tend to discourage prospective tourists from travelling to Kenya. Consequently, Kenya is currently being perceived, especially in the West, as an insecure destination, and the country is losing hundreds of international tourists who now prefer travelling to countries in the region which offer a similar tourism product and are generally perceived as being secure. These countries include Uganda, Tanzania, Botswana and South Africa.
Conclusion Based on the Kenya case study, it can be ascertained that the destination life cycle model is a useful conceptual tool, and can be used in the analysis and provision of explanation of complex social and economic processes of tourism development in the Third World. The model provides useful conceptual framework for coherent and systematic analysis and explanation of longitudinal developments in tourism. However, the destination life cycle model is not useful as a forecasting tool for future long-term development and evolution of tourism. The model, for instance, is not useful in forecasting and predicting the abrupt and unexpected decline of Kenya’s tourism industry in the 1990s. By the late 1980s, Kenya’s tourism industry had definitely entered the consolidation stage and the country seemed poised to receive an increasing number of international tourists. Official and expert prediction was that if similar tourism evolutionary trends had persisted, international tourist arrivals to Kenya could have topped 1 million tourists by the turn of the century (Kenya Government, 1989). Furthermore, as postulated by Butler (1980), the evolution
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of tourism in Kenya should have advanced gradually from the consolidation to stagnation stage, before eventually entering the decline stage. However, defying informed prediction and contrary to the stipulated stages of the destination life cycle model, Kenya’s tourism industry experienced abrupt and unforeseeable decline soon after reaching the consolidation stage. The unexpected decline of Kenya’s tourism industry has astounded tourism researchers, and it also brings into question the usefulness of the destination life cycle model as a forecasting tool for present and future development and planning of tourism, particularly in Third World destinations. In this regard, the model needs modification to make it more applicable to Third World tourist destinations. Of particular significance, in analysing the longitudinal evolution of tourism in the Third World, cognisance should be given to the unpredictable nature of the dominant sociopolitical and economic exogenous factors which impact the development of Third World tourism. Moreover, in most cases, these exogenous factors are beyond the control of Third World tourism planners and policy-makers, and usually it is not possible to predict their future long-term trends and impacts on tourism development. Further, from the very initial stages of tourism development in Kenya, there was minimal local involvement in the provision and management of tourism and hospitality facilities. During the exploration and colonial involvement stage, the development of tourism was largely influenced and dictated by external factors (i.e. the establishment of colonial rule and the arrival of pioneer expatriates and entrepreneurs). In consequence, in order to be more applicable to colonial and post-colonial societies, the destination life cycle model should be modified to take into cognisance historical, political and economic processes which led to the establishment of colonial rule in Third World societies and the eventual incorporation of these societies into the global market economy. In this regard, incorporation of components of dependence theory can enrich and enhance the prospects of the destination life cycle model as a useful conceptual tool for the analysis of longitudinal and historical evolution of tourism in colonial and post-colonial societies. In post-colonial Kenya, external control and management of the tourism and hospitality industry has persisted and has continued to be more intensive. When, for instance, the postcolonial government realised the importance of tourism development in generating much sought after foreign exchange, it turned to foreign and multinational investors to provide initial capital for the establishment and development of large-scale tourism and hospitality facilities. In this regard, the government adopted an ‘open-door’ laissez-faire policy towards multinational tourism investors and developers. Furthermore, the government introduced specific financial incentives such as tax concessions, favourable fiscal policies for external capital investment and profit repatriation. These financial incentives were aimed at attracting increased and accelerated foreign capital investments in the tourism and hospitality sector. In consequence, during the post-colonial period, the nature and structure of tourism development in Kenya shifted drastically from small-scale public and private tourism enterprises to the establishment of large-scale tourism projects which were financed by external multinational tourism investors. However, the
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speculative nature of external capital investment coupled with lack of comprehensive government land use and tourism development policy led to a spatial concentration of the country’s tourism and hospitality facilities in a few locations, mainly on the Coast and in Nairobi and the popular wildlife parks and reserves, such as Maasai Mara, Amboseli and Tsavo. These tourism locations were perceived by the multinational tourism investors as having high potential for offering immediate profit returns because they attract most of the international tourists who visit Kenya. The spatial concentration of tourism and hospitality facilities has resulted in the degradation of the country’s tourism attractions and the eventual reduction of the quality of the tourism product. Furthermore, dependence on external capital investment and tourism market demand meant that the development of tourism could be greatly influenced and dictated by unpredictable exogenous socioeconomic and political factors. In consequence, incidental and extraneous factors in the tourist generating countries could cause immediate and direct impact on tourism development in Kenya. When, for instance, incidents of political disorder and civil unrest in Kenya (whether real or imagined) appeared in the Western mass media, there were immediate and massive cancellations of planned visits to Kenya. Thus, Kenya is currently being perceived, especially in the West, as an insecure tourist destination and, in consequence, the country is losing international tourists who prefer travelling to other countries in the region which offer similar tourism product and are perceived as being politically secure. In this regard, the multinational tourism and travel companies have shifted international tourism market demand from Kenya to other countries in the region which offer an undifferentiated tourism product. This shift in tourism market demand has led to the premature decline of Kenya’s tourism industry.
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