THE EUROPEAN PERISHABLE MARKET Opportunities and threats for South America
Gert-Jan Jansen, YDL Management Consultants E:
[email protected] T: +31-346-564244
Scope of this Presentation •
European Air Cargo Import Market of Perishables
•
Temperature Controlled Goods
•
Characteristics, Opportunities, Threats, Trends
•
What Happened in 2002? A Summary of Market Develoments
•
Focus: Recommendations for South/Central American parties
•
Quantitative research
•
Source: YDL Global Trade Database
YDL Management Consultants
Europe is a highly concentrated market: Netherlands and UK dominant Europe air imports of perishable goods per year in tonnes 200.000 180.000 160.000 140.000
2000
120.000
2001
100.000
2002
80.000 60.000 40.000 20.000 0 Belgium + Luxembourg YDL Management Consultants
France
Germany
Italy
Netherlands
Spain
United Kingdom
Kenya largest exporter of perishables to Europe. Growth of Ghana and Brazil in 2002 Top-10 perishable exporting countries to Europe Trade by air in tonnes 120.000
100.000
80.000
2000
60.000
2001
2002
40.000
20.000
0 ya Ken
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U.S
.A.
el ica Isra Afr h t Sou
na we Gha bab m i Z
Bra
zil
Can
ada
za Tan
nia
om Col
bia
Tropical fruits, beans/peas and other vegetables have shown strong growth Top-10 commodities imported into Europe Trade by air in tonnes, 2002 160.000 140.000 2000
120.000
2001
2002
100.000 80.000 60.000 40.000 20.000 0 t Cu
we Flo
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rs
t ) h e s s s eat rui uits Fis i ag ble fish Fi g ble r M F l a a F o r t g t & e e in al s tF ge Oth Veg pi c l ud Cu Ve ape c o r r s r x e G u T (e o s, Oth mi n ood rrie f u e a g Se Le ft B So
Few regions matter in perishables: strong concentration per commodity Top-10 commodities imported into Europe Trade by air in tonnes, 2002 Seafood (excluding fish) East Africa
Soft Berries, Grapes & Figs
South America Meat
Levant
Fresh Cut Foliage
West Africa North America
Other Fruit
Other regions
Leguminous Vegetables Tropical Fruits Other Vegetables Fish Cut Flowers 0 YDL Management Consultants
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000 100.000 120.000 140.000 160.000
Cut flower imports into Europe is stable business during last three years Cut flower imports into Europe Trade by air in tonnes 140.000
120.000
100.000
80.000 Ecuador Colombia
60.000
Zimbabwe Israel
40.000
Kenya
20.000
0 2000 YDL Management Consultants
2001
2002
Tropical fruits into Europe: strong growth of volume from main originating markets Tropical fruit imports into Europe Trade by air in tonnes 100.000 90.000 80.000 70.000 60.000 Madagascar
50.000
Costa Rica South Africa
40.000
Pakistan 30.000
Ivory Coast Brazil
20.000
Ghana
10.000 0 2000
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2001
2002
Overall strong decrease in imports of fresh meat into Europe in 2002 Meat imports into Europe Trade by air in tonnes 45.000 Mexico 40.000
New Zealand Uruguay
35.000
Brazil U.S.A.
30.000
Canada Argentina
25.000 20.000 15.000 10.000 5.000 0 2000 YDL Management Consultants
2001
2002
Strong and vulnerable relation between export country and commodity Top-10 commodities imported into Europe from South America Trade by air in tonnes, 2002 35.000
Other Guava & Mango Other Fruits
30.000
Other Fish Other Flowers Hake (Merluza) Asparagus
25.000
Roses
20.000
Horse Meat Carnations Papaya
15.000
10.000
5.000
0 Argentina YDL Management Consultants
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Ecuador
Peru
From a quantitative perspective: Ecuador has the best position in the Netherlands Relevant (for South America) commodities imported into the Netherlands Trade by air in tonnes, 2002 60.000
Ecuador 9% 50.000
40.000
2000
2001
2002
Ecuador 9% 30.000
Brasil 95% 20.000
Brasil from 25% to 57%
Colombia from 55% to 72% 10.000
Colombia 29%
Argentina from 42% to
Peru 95%
0 Roses YDL Management Consultants
Other Flowers
Other Fish
Papaya
Carnations
Other Fruits
Guava & Mango
Horse Meat
Asparagus
Chile has the best position to increase export volume to Spain Relevant (for South America) commodities imported into Spain Trade by air in tonnes, 2002 60.000
50.000
Chile from 14% to 22%
40.000 2000
30.000
20.000
Chile from 60% to 40%
10.000
Peru 95%
Chile 8%
Asparagus
Frozen Hake (Merluza)
2001
Colombia from 45% to 35% Ecuador from 55% to 65% All Colombia
2002
All Brazil
0 Hake (Merluza) YDL Management Consultants
Other Fish
Carnations
Roses
Papaya
Brazil faces competition from Pakistan and India on tropical fruits to the UK Relevant (for South America) commodities imported into the United Kingdom Trade by air in tonnes, 2002 14.000 Colombia 77% 12.000 All from Pakistan 10.000 Colombia from 12% to 7% Ecuador from 4% to 2%
8.000
Brasil 83% to 45% Growth from India and Pakistan
2000
2001
2002
6.000
4.000
Peru 70% Colombia from 28% to 34%
2.000
0 Carnations YDL Management Consultants
Guava & Mango
Roses
Other Fish
Papaya
Other Flowers
Asparagus
Other Fruits
What happened in 2002? • The perishable market decreased with 7%; especially into Spain, Belgium and Luxembourg • Increasing concentration of the Netherlands and UK as Europe's dominant import markets • Kenya strengthened its position as the number one exporter to Europe • Fish and meat have shown a decrease in import volume • On the other hand, tropical fruits, beans/peas and other vegetables have increased • Brazil, Kenya and Ghana were the most successful in growing their exports to Europe YDL Management Consultants
Opportunities • Identified perishable opportunities are country specific • Some examples: tropical fruits from Brazil to the UK, hake from Chile to Spain, roses from Ecuador to the Netherlands, etc. • To identify these opportunities to the other European countries requires research into commodity flows at a detailed level • In general opportunities are: tropical fruits, roses, vegetables, Netherlands and the UK • Learn from existing success stories, like: Kenya, Ghana, Brazil YDL Management Consultants
Challenges! • Increasing competion from Africa, especially in the flower industry • Limited number of commodities per South American country make them vulnerable • The trends shown in this presentation are demand and supply related: affordable air cargo capacity is required • Imbalance between exports and imports does not make it attractive to put direct air capacity to South America • Also due to the long distance (high cost to serve) • Use consolidation points (like Miami) to solve capacity constraints and to create cost efficient pipe-lines to Europe YDL Management Consultants
