The energy problem and what we can do about it.

Global Climate and Energy Project Stanford University 18 September, 2006 1

Chair: Norm Augustine, former Chairman and CEO of Lockheed-Martin

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“Transitions to Sustainable Energy” The world has a clear and major problem, with no global consensus on the way to proceed: how to achieve transitions to an adequately affordable, sustainable clean energy supply” Co-chairs: Jose Goldemberg, Brazil Steven Chu, USA

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•19 of the 20 warmest years since 1860 have all occurred since 1980. •2005 was the warmest year in the instrumental record and probably the warmest in 1,000 years (tree rings, ice cores). 4

Temperature over the last 420,000 years Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

CO2

We are here

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Concentration of Greenhouse gases

1750, the beginning of the industrial revolution

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Temperature rise due to human emission of greenhouse gases Climate change due to natural causes (solar variations, volcanoes, etc.)

Climate change due to natural causes and human generated greenhouse gases 7

T changes for 2x CO2

Computer simulations by the Princeton Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab:

2x increase in CO2 from the pre-industrial level

⇒ 5 -12 °F increase 4x increase in CO2

⇒ 15-23°F!

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Summer soil moisture in N America under doubled & quadrupled CO2 (from the Princeton GFDL model) Mid-continent soilmoisture reductions reach 50-60% in the 4xCO2 world. 9

Significant climate change: • Damage from storms, floods, wildfires • Property losses and population displacement from sea-level rise + hurricanes or typhoons • Productivity of farms, forests, & fisheries • Heat-induced deaths • Distribution & abundance of species • Geography of disease 10

Nature, 2005

Hurricane power in the North Atlantic and Pacific have doubled in the last 30 years 11 (Smoothed Data)

For a Gaussian distribution:

1 σ = 68 % confidence level 2 σ = 95.4% confidence level 3 σ = 99.7% confidence level 12

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Unstable Glaciers Surface melt on Greenland ice sheet descending into moulin, a vertical shaft carrying the water to base of ice sheet. Source: Roger Braithwaite

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Bleached coral head: Bleaching occurs when high water temperature kills the living organisms in the coral, leaving behind only the calcium carbonate skeleton.

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Ocean chemistry • Average pH ~ 8.2 ±0.3 • CO2 dissolved in seawater has lowered the average pH of the oceans by about 0.1 (30% increase in hydrogen ions) from pre-industrial levels (Caldeira & Wickett Nature (2003). • Changes in pH up to 0.5 are possible. In laboratory experiments on the symbiontbearing foraminiferans … a strong reduction in the calcification rate occurred as pH decreased from 9 to 7.” (Bijma et al 1999, 2002; Erez 2003).

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Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California, K. Hayhoea, et al., PNAS 101, 12422 (2004) Using two state-of-the-art climate models that bracket most of the IPCC emissions scenarios:

Heat wave mortality: Alpine/subalpine forests Sierra snowpack

B1

A1 fi

2-3x 50–75% 30–70%

5-7x 75–90% 73–90%

“…with cascading impacts on runoff and streamflow that, combined with projected modest declines in winter precipitation, could fundamentally disrupt California’s water rights system. Although Inter-scenario differences in climate impacts and costs of adaptation emerge mainly in the second half of the century, they are strongly dependent on emissions from preceding decades.” 18

A dual strategy is needed to solve the energy problem: 1) Conservation: maximize energy efficiency and minimize energy use, while insuring economic prosperity 2) Develop new sources of clean energy

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The Demand side of the Energy Solution

The Rosenfeld Effect ? Total Electricity Use, per capita, 1960 - 2001 kWh

14,000

12,000

12,000

U.S.

10,000

8,000 KWh

8,000 7,000

6,000 California 4,000

Art Rosenfeld turns his attention to the energy problem

2,000

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

1966

1964

1962

1960

0 21

Regulation stimulates technology: Refrigerator efficiency standards and performance. The expectation of efficiency standards also stimulated industry innovation

US Electricity Use of Refrigerators and Freezers compared to sources of electricity 800

Nuclear

700

500

400

150 M Refrig/Freezers

200

100

0

at 1974 eff

Conventional Hydro

at 2001 eff

Saved Used

300

Used

Billion kWh per year

600

50 Million 2 kW PV Systems

Existing Renewables

3 Gorges Dam

The Value of Energy Saved and Produced. (assuming cost of generation = $.03/kWh and cost of use = $.085/kWh) 25

Nuclear

Billion $ per year

20

15

Dollars Saved from 150 M Refrig/Freezers at 2001 efficiency 50 Million 2 kW PV Systems

Conventional 10

5

0

Hydro

ANWR

3 Gorges Dam

Existing Renewables

The attack of the “vampire” drains on energy United States Refrigerator Use (Actual) and Estimated Household Standby Use v. Time 2000

Estimated Standby Power (per house)

1600 1400

Refrigerator Use per Unit

1978 Cal Standard

1200

1987 Cal Standard

1000

1980 Cal Standard

800 1990 Federal Standard

600 400

1993 Federal Standard

2001 Federal Standard

200

2009

2007

2005

2003

2001

1999

1997

1995

1993

1991

1989

1987

1985

1983

1981

1979

1977

1975

1973

1971

1969

1967

1965

1963

1961

1959

1957

1955

1953

1951

1949

0 1947

Average Energy Use per Unit Sold (kWh per year)

1800

US energy consumption by end-use sector 1949 – 2004

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Potential supply-side solutions to the Energy Problem • Coal, tar sands, shale oil, …

• Fusion • Fission • Wind • Solar photocells • Bio-mass

US Energy consumption by fuel

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New electricity generation by fuel type including combined heat and power (DOE/EIA 2006 report)

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Carbon capture and storage costs

“To achieve such an economic potential, several hundreds to thousands of CO2 capture systems would need to be installed over the coming century ... The actual use of CCS … is likely to be lower due to factors such as environmental impacts, risks of leakage, and the lack of a clear legal framework or public acceptance”. IPCC Special Report on Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage

Potential supply-side solutions to the Energy Problem • Coal, tar sands, shale oil, …

• Fusion • Fission • Wind • Solar photocells • Bio-mass

Nuclear Fission

• Nuclear waste • Nuclear proliferation • Economic and regulatory constraints

Can nuclear fission satisfy future electrical power needs? • 3 TW x 40% of US power = 1.2 TW • By 2020, projected electricity increase = 0.4 TW. • If all new electricity is nuclear power, we will need to build a 1 GW reactor every 10 days. • 0.24 TW (existing nuclear power plants) will have to be replaced in ~ 15 - 30 years. • To maintain 20% generation of electricity by nuclear power ⇒ five 1 GW reactors every year.

Research must be done to see if fuel re-cycling can be made proliferation resistant and economically feasible.

Potential supply-side solutions to the Energy Problem • Coal, tar sands, shale oil, …

• Fusion • Fission • Wind • Solar photocells • Bio-mass

Cost of AC and DC high voltage transmission lines

~ 100,000 TW of energy is received from the sun

Amount of land needed to capture 13 TW: 20% efficiency (photovoltaic) = 0.23% 1% efficiency (bio-mass) = 4.6%

100,000 TW (1012 watts) of solar energy absorbed by the Earth World population will peak at < 1010 people US consumes ~10 kW / person, EU ~ 4 kW Future energy needs: 4 x 103 W/person x 1010 people = 40 x 1012 watts = 0.14 % of incident solar power on land

Long-term incentives were essential to stimulate long term development of wind power

3 MW capacity deployed and 5 MW generators in design (126 m diameter rotors).

The Betts Limit: Ac, Pc Aa, Pa

va

vb Ab, PbU

vb

vc

Ab, PbD

Assuming: • Conservation of mass for incompressible flow • Conservation of momentum, Maximum kinetic energy delivered to a wind turbine = 16/27 (½)mv2 ~ 0.59 of kinetic energy

Potential supply-side solutions to the Energy Problem • Coal, tar sands, shale oil, …

• Fusion • Fission • Wind • Solar photocells • Bio-mass 41

The majority of a plant is structural material Cellulose Hemicellulose Lignin

40-60% Percent Dry Weight 20-40% 10-25%

Sunlight CO2, H20, Nutrients

Biomass

Self-fertilizing, drought and pest resistant

Chemical energy

Improved conversion of cellulose into chemical fuel

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~13 • • • •

B ha of land in the Earth 1.5 B ha for crops 3.5 B ha for pastureland 0.5 B ha are “built up” 7.5 B ha are forest land or “other”

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Land best suited for biomass generation (Latin America, Sub-Saharan Africa) is the least utilized

Potential arable land suitable for rain-fed crops: 1.5 Billion ha ⇒ 4 Billion ha 44

~ 2 billion

~ 6 billion

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Source: US Dept of Agriculture

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• Miscanthus yields: 30 dry tons/acre • 100 gallons of ethanol / dry ton possible ⇒ 3,000 gal/acre. • 100 M out of 450 M acres ⇒ ~300 B gal / year of ethanol • US consumption (2004) = 141 B gal of gasoline ~ 200 B gal of ethanol / year • US also consumes 63 B gal diesel

> 1% conversion efficiency may be feasible. 47

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Greenhouse Gases 125 Net GHG (gCO2e / MJ-ethanol)

CO 2 Intensive Patzek

100

Graboski

Pimentel Gasoline

Today Shapouri

de Oliviera

75

Wang

50 Original data Commensurate values Gasoline EBAMM cases

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Cellulosic

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

Net Energy (MJ / L)

Dan Kammen, et al. (2006)

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The majority of a plant is structural material Cellulose Hemicellulose Lignin

40-60% Percent Dry Weight 20-40% 10-25%

Sunlight CO2, H20, Nutrients

Biomass

Self-fertilizing, drought and pest resistant

Chemical energy

Improved conversion of cellulose into chemical fuel

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Cellulose (40 – 60% of dry mass)

• Linear polymer of the glucose-glucose dimer • Hydrolysis ⇒ glucose (6C sugar) ⇒ ethanol

Hemicellulose (20 -40%)

Highly branched, short chain, 5C and 6C sugars such as xylose arabinose, galactose Fermentation of hemicellulose in infancy (Ethanol substituted for other hydrocarbon e.g. butanol, octanes, etc. ?)

Lignin (10 – 25%)

• Does not lead to simple sugar molecules 51

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“The large coal deposits of the Carboniferous primarily owe their existence to two factors… the appearance of bark-bearing trees (and in particular the evolution of the bark fiber lignin) [and] the development of extensive lowland swamps and forests in North America and Europe. It has been hypothesized that large quantities of wood were buried during this period because animals and decomposing bacteria had not yet evolved that 53 could effectively digest the new lignin.”

From Christopher Somerville, IAC workshop, 2006

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Commercial ethanol production from cellulose

The biggest energy gains will come from improved 55 fuel production from cellulose/lignin

Synthetic Biology: Production of artemisinin in bacteria Jay Keasling

Can synthetic organisms be engineered to produce Identify the ethanol, butanol or more biosynthesis pathways in suitable hydrocarbon fuel? atoB HMGS tHMGR

ADS

MK PMK MPD idi ispA

A-CoA

AA-CoA

HMG-CoA

Mev

Mev-PP

IPP

DMAPP

Mev-P

A. annua

OPP

FPP

Amor

Matrix Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) Solving the Macro-Micro Interface Problem

Red: Primer Input (Multiplexed by N) Blue: Template Input (Multiplexed by N) Yellow: Taq Input (Multiplexed by N2)

57 N2 independent PCR reactions performed with 2N+1 inputs!

Is it possible to develop a new class of durable solar cells with high efficiency at 1/5 to 1/10th the cost of existing technology?

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Gen I: Gen II: Gen. III:

Silicon Thin film Advanced future structures

Helios

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Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 3,800 employees, ~$520 M / year budget

10 Nobel Prize winners were/are employees of LBNL, and at least one more “in the pipeline”

Berkeley Today: Lab 200site Academy of Sciences, 59 employees in acre the National 18 in the National Academy of Engineering, 2 in the Institute of Medicine

UC Berkeley Campus 60

Helios: Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory’s attack on the energy problem Plants

Cellulose

Cellulose-degrading microbes

Engineered photosynthetic microbes and plants Artificial Photosynthesis PV

Electricity

Methanol Ethanol Hydrogen Hydrocarbons

Electrochemistry

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Bell Laboratories (Murray Hill, NJ)

15 scientists who worked at AT&T Bell laboratories received Nobel Prizes.

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Bardeen Materials Science Theoretical and experimental Brittain physics - Electronic structure of semiconductors - Electronic surface states - p-n junctions

Shockley 64

I. Sunlight to Fuel via Biomass • Improved conversion of biomass to fuels • Improved biomass production •Novel biofuel synthesis from organisms

II: Microbial synthesis of biofuels using photosynthesis

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III. Direct Photochemical or Photoelectrochemical Solar to Fuel Conversion IV: Sunlight to Electricity to Fuel IIIA. Nanotechnology enabled solar cells IIIB. Electricity to Fuel. A new generation of electrochemical systems 66