Utica Shale
The effect of proposed Severance Tax legislation, from a Landowner’s perspective Testimony Slides Senate Ways & Means Committee Robert Johnson Landowner Morgan County, Ohio May 13, 2015
Landowners’ concerns regarding proposed severance tax increases – key takeaway points:
1
1. Compared to other shale plays the Utica is young, small, undeveloped and vulnerable. 2. Companies are drastically cutting back on their capital expenditures in the Utica 3. In 2015 the Utica rig count is down 57% and the Utica permit count is down 58%. 4. Utica wells compete for capital with every other U.S. shale play. Utica wells have numerous competitive disadvantages when compared to wells in other shale plays. 5. There are 17 other shale oil plays in the U.S. with lower breakeven points than the Utica. 6. Oil and gas production from Utica sells at a significant discount to nationally quoted (NYMEX) oil and gas prices, which is major competitive disadvantage. 7. Oil Companies with significant Utica acreage are choosing to invest in other shale plays with higher ROI’s (Return On Investment), rather than in the Utica. 8. Landowners, local businesses, workers, county and state governments will all lose if Oil Companies are not willing to invest in the area. Tax revenues, employment and royalties will all be lower. 9. History has shown that higher severance taxes and impact fees negatively impact the shale wells ROI’s and therefore the number of drilling rigs, as seen in examples from Arkansas, Pennsylvania and West Virginia 10. Most of “big oil” companies have already left the Utica or have little activity, leaving primarily small to mid-sized companies (by oil and gas company standards – though they seem large by Ohio standards). 11. These small to mid-sized companies’ business models require them to reinvest all their cash flow back into drilling more wells (not taking it out of Ohio) as long as the ROI is adequate.
2
Utica wells compete for capital with all of the other shale plays in the U.S. Compared to the other shale plays the Utica is young, small, underdeveloped and vulnerable
3
4 Utica Oil & Gas Production – much less than other shale plays Utica
Utica
Bakken
Bakken
Permian
Eagle Ford
Permian Eagle Ford
Marcellus
EIA April 2015 data: 1. Utica oil production (62,000 bopd) is dwarfed by other major oil plays that have 6 to 32 times the production of the Utica. 2. Even predominantly gas shale plays (Haynesville & Marcellus) have almost same oil production as the Utica. 3. Utica gas production (1,972 MM scfpd) is exceeded by every major shale play (2 to 8 times the Utica production) , except Bakken which flares most of its gas. U.S. Energy Information Administration Drilling Productivity Report - April 13, 2015
5 600
Total Drilling Rig Count Various Shales 500 Fayetteville Utica Barnett
Drilling Rig Count
400
Bakken DJ-Niobrara Eagle Ford Marcellus
300
Permian
200
Utica Rig Count 100
0 Feb11
Apr11
Jun11
Aug11
Oct11
Dec11
Feb12
Apr12
Jun12
Aug12
Oct12
Dec12
Feb13
Apr13
Jun13
Aug13
Oct13
Dec13
Feb14
Apr14
Jun14
Aug14
Oct14
Dec14
Feb15
Perspective – Only the Fayetteville (AR) & Barnett (TX) have fewer rigs than the Utica
Apr15
Ja n
Ja n
19 -
12 -
Ap r
Ap r
Ap r
M ar
M ar
M ar
M ar
M ar
Fe b
Fe b
Fe b
Fe b
05 -
29 -
22 -
15 -
08 -
01 -
22 -
15 -
08 -
01 -
25 -
18 -
Ja n
Ja n
25
11 -
04 -
Permits
6
Utica - Permits - 2015
30 Permits
24
20
15
10 10
5
0
Ja n
Ja n
19 -
12 -
Ap r
Ap r
Ap r
M ar
M ar
M ar
M ar
M ar
Fe b
Fe b
Fe b
Fe b
05 -
29 -
22 -
15 -
08 -
01 -
22 -
15 -
08 -
01 -
25 -
18 -
Ja n
Ja n
50
11 -
04 -
Rig Count
7
Utica - Rig Count - 2015
60 Rigs
51
40
30
20 22
10
0
8
9 WTI
Condensate
$ difference between WTI and Utica – Condensate % difference increases greatly
$ difference between Utica – Medium and Utica – Light $ amount similar but % difference increases
A large majority of production that ODNR reports as “Oil” is actually “Condensate” which sells for significantly less than the nationally quoted NYMEX WTI – (West Texas Intermediate)
10 Large % of Utica production Utica - Condensate
Most of Utica “Oil” sells at significant discount to national (WTI) price = competitive disadvantage
Smaller % of Utica Production Utica - Light
11
Beginning in 2013 the DTI price that many Utica producers receive was significantly less than NYMEX
12
$ Gap DTI to NYMEX
% Discount DTI to NYMEX
$ Discount DTI to NYMEX
Much of Utica natural gas sells at significant discount to nationally quoted NYMEX price = competitive disadvantage
Beginning in 2014 the DTI price many Utica producers receive traded at a 30% - 50% discount to NYMEX
13 17 oil plays have lower breakeven points than Ohio Utica – before a severance tax increase
Ohio BEFORE Severance Tax increase
Ohio Utica at a BIG Disadvantage Before Tax Increase
TX - vertical
condensate
TX
Even with severance taxes wells in TX, ND, CO & OK have lower breakeven points than Ohio Utica wells do without an increase in severance taxes Add in a new Ohio 6.5% severance tax and Ohio Utica wells are not on the chart
TX - vertical
TX
OK, KS
ND
TX, NM
TX
TX
OK TX
OK, TX
OK
TX, NM - horizont
TX
TX
CO
ND
CO
Colorado WITH Severance Tax
In 2015 PDC drilling 119 wells in Wattenberg, CO shale, 0 wells in Utica - Higher rate of return on CO wells with CO severance tax than OH Utica wells before OH severance tax increase
Ohio losses due to severance tax increase:
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-Landowners lose lease bonus and royalties -Ohio businesses & workers lose jobs created by landowner and Oil & Gas spending
- County & State Governments lose sales and income tax revenue – Churches & Charities lose donations
Much of Utica “oil” is condensate which sells at a $10 - $20 discount to WTI = competitive disadvantage compared to other shale plays
Thicker – heavier to West
15
Thinner – lighter to East
Current condensate pricing – even greater deduction to nationally quoted WTI API (American Petroleum Institute) gravity – Higher = thinner Lower = thicker Rector well only a few miles farther east (thus deeper) than Brown well (see map) Impractical – unworkable for anybody to set the quarterly price for “oil” as price varies widely by location and quality.
Carrizo
16
Red Yellow
Update: Rig released, zero wells 2015
Color code to locate wells drilled by other companies
Rector well – initial production rates 1,680 BCPD Barrels of Condensate Per Day 621 BNGLD – Barrels of Natural Gas Liquids Per Day 5,800 MCPD – Thousand Cubic feet Per Day = 5.8 Million Cubic Feet Per Day Carrizo Rector eastern Rich Condensate 60 API, Brown middle of zone 49 API
Competitive Advantages / Disadvantages – Eagle Ford Shale, Texas vs. Utica Shale 17 Category
Eagle Ford
Utica
Large scale oil and gas production Risk
Decades of investment & experience Low – Proven acreage & completions
2 – 3 years – not scaled up yet High – Unproven in N, W & S
Multiple refineries along Gulf Coast Multiple pipelines – less expensive Significant majority – oil = Full WTI (West Texas Intermediate) price
3 regional – Canton, KY, PA Truck, rail or barge – more expensive Significant majority – condensate = Limited regional capacity to refine = Regional surplus = More than 50% discount to WTI
Multiple crackers along Gulf Coast = High demand for ethane = High price Multiple pipelines, short distance = Inexpensive transport = Higher net price received Many chemical plants along Gulf Coast = high demand = high price Numerous pipelines directly to plants = Low cost of transport = High net price
No regional crackers Ethane must be piped to Gulf Coast = low demand = low price 1 long pipeline to Gulf Coast = High transportation cost = Reduced net price received Few regional chemical plants = Low regional demand & pricing No current pipelines to East Coast or Gulf Coast – some planned = Local surplus = low price
Large industrial demand for decades Extensive pipeline network to local industrial users and to regions with high demand = high realized price
Limited industrial demand – too new Severely limited pipeline capacity out of Marcellus – Utica basin = regional surplus and prices $1.00 $1.25 / mcf below national prices
Oil - Condensate Proximity to refineries Transport to refineries Proportion Oil vs. Condensate
Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) Ethane cracker
Ethane pipelines
Chemical plants to use other natural gas liquids (NGL), butane, propane etc Pipelines for other Natural Gas Liquids
Natural Gas Regional industrial demand Capacity of pipelines to regions with high demand = high net price received
Bottom 1) Eagle Ford wells have significant competitive advantages compared to Utica Wells – in every category Line: 2) Eagle Ford wells have all of the infrastructure, pipeline and industrial demand in place – Utica doesn’t 3) The petrochemical and Oil & Gas industries in Texas are well established - No early incentives required 4) Eagle Ford wells can bear the Texas severance tax (applied after cost recovery) – Utica wells cannot. 5) Companies invest in wells with highest ROI (Return on Investment) & more proven production = Eagle Ford - Utica wells, especially in N, W & S – unproven, higher risk & have lower ROI - before severance increase
Magnum Hunter leased 208,000 acres, 80,000 in Marcellus, 128,000 in Utica Utica – Marcellus capital expenditure – 2014 $390 Million, 2015 $100 Million All drilling & completions (fracking) suspended, capital expenditures delayed until 2nd ½ of 2015
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19 Left Utica for other oil & gas plays
Anadarko 2012 Plans
Utica wells compete for investment capital with every other shale play - High severance tax = uncompetitive
Drilled 7 wells in the Utica In 2014 left the Utica for other oil & gas plays with higher IRR (Internal Rates of Return) & NPV (Net Present Value) Returned the majority of the acreage to local JV (Joint Venture) partner Sold the rest of the acreage
20
60
Total Drilling Rig Count Fayetteville & Utica Shales
Fayetteville Shale Utica Shale
53 50
Drilling Rig Count
40
39
30
20
10
8 6
0 Dec08
Mar09
Jun09
Sep09
Dec09
Mar10
Jun10
Sep10
Dec10
Mar11
Jun11
Sep11
Dec11
Mar12
Jun12
Sep12
Dec12
Mar13
Jun13
Sep13
Dec13
Mar14
Jun14
Sep14
Dec14
Mar15
When the increased Arkansas severance tax (1.5% for 3 years, then 5%) took effect in 2009 there were 53 Fayetteville rigs. The rig count dropped to 39 in 2010, 22 in 2012, 13 by January 2013, 9 by October 2013 and to 8 currently = 85% Drop The Utica rig count (with the current severance tax) increased from 6 in 2010 to 50 at the end of 2014 = 733% Increase. In 2015 the Utica rig count has fallen from 51 rigs to 22 = 57% Drop
140
In 2009 – Both PA & WV had Marcellus wells. WV had a 5% severance tax + $0.047 / Mcf of Natural Gas PA had no severance tax.
21 Rig Count, OH, PA, WV 2009 - 2015
PA Impact Fee Passed
120
100
Ohio
Rigs
80
Penn. W. Virgina 60
40
20
Ja n15
Ja n14
Ja n13
Ja n12
Ja n11
Ja n10
Ja n09
0
NOTE: 1) PA (without a severance tax) saw drilling rigs increase 428% from 22 to 119 rigs (Jan 2009 to Jan 2012) 2) WV (with a 5% severance tax) saw drilling rigs increase 8% from 26 to 28 rigs (Jan 2009 to Jan 2012) 3) In PA when the impact fee was passed drilling rigs dropped 47% from 114 to 61 rigs (Feb 2012 to Sept 2012) Particularly hard hit were wells in unproven areas, wells with marginal economics & smaller independent oil Co’s These are just the wells and companies that Ohio needs to encourage, to expand the Utica North, West & South 4) In WV during the same period (Feb 2012 to Sept 2012) the number of drilling rigs remained constant at 27 rigs
Common Misconceptions:
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1. The severance tax increase will just affect “Big Oil” “Big Oil” has largely left the Utica including companies like Shell & BP, or are relatively inactive, like Chevron and Exxon, which have only a handful of wells. The companies that remain are generally classified as Small to Mid-Sized. This is a challenging concept to fully appreciate because by Ohio standards any company that can invest hundreds of millions of dollars must be “Big Oil”. By industry standards these companies are relatively small. 2. The Oil companies are taking profits out of Ohio therefore they need to be taxed It is important to understand the business models of these Small to Mid-Sized Oil companies. Most of them are reinvesting all of their cash flow back into drilling more wells and will drill them in Ohio as long as their ROI is high enough. Raising the severance tax will lower the ROI and make Ohio wells less competitive 3. It is just the “Big Oil” companies that will pay the increased severance tax Most landowners will end up paying their proportionate share of the severance and ad valorem tax. When it came to leases most landowners had no other options. In Utica leases landowners could either choose to sign a lease that required them to pay the taxes or not get leased. At the time severance taxes were not an issue, even to the attorneys who advised the landowners. Landowners with preexisting leases will pay their proportionate share of the taxes. 4. The oil and gas are there. The Oil companies will have to drill Many shale plays that have the resources, like the Fayetteville in Arkansas and parts of the Marcellus in Pennsylvania are not being drilled, especially in marginal and unproven areas, where the ROI cannot compete. 5. Even if the companies leave they will have to come back If companies leave it is very difficult for an Oil company executive to justify taking the risk of investing in a play others have left. It is much easier to justify taking a risk in a newly discovered area.
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In Conclusion: I want to thank Chairman Peterson and the Committee for giving me the opportunity to share with you the landowners perspective on the severance tax. The severance tax is a very complicated topic and raising it can have devastating unintended consequences for landowners, workers, counties and the state of Ohio itself. We could easily lose a multigenerational opportunity. We will only have one opportunity to do this right. We hope that there will be sufficient time to fully consider and debate the topic.
I will be happy to answer any questions you have.
