Talent identification and talent development with particular regard to soccer Arne Güllich Tokio, March 6, 2016

   

‘The Idea‘ and Structure of TID/TDP Research Questions Empirical Research Summary and Discussion

TID/TDP in General  Correspondence in Soccer

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‘The Idea‘ and Structure Talent Identification (TID) and Talent Development Programmes (TDP)  Investments are increasing worldwide.

‘The Idea’

 Challenge to structure programmes efficaciously

 TID: Select the most promising young talents in

and regularly develop internationally successful

order to focus TDP delivery on these selected few.

athletes.

 TDP: Apply interventions to support the selected

Issues for practitioners and researchers:

athletes’ training and competition process to there-

 At what age to initiate TID and TDP?

by facilitate performance progress and increase

 How many athletes to involve at what ages?

their likelihood of long-term international senior

 What interventions to apply to them?

success.

‘The Idea‘ and Structure Structure  Provided by NSOs (and regional subdivisions)  Utilising training centres, athlete service centres, youth academies, and elite sport schools (ESS)  Subdivision in age and performance-related

stages Pyramidal structure: Initially great number, stepwise reduction across subsequent stages

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‘The Idea‘ and Structure Structure of German Soccer TDP DFB (NSO) and DFL (clubs) ‘Elite Promotion’ Stage

‘Talent Promotion’ stage

 U15, U16, U17 … teams; 100 full time coaches

 Scouting 600,000 players annually, age 11-14 yrs

 49 youth academies, 414 junior teams, 7,900

 14,000 players one weekly session, emphasis on

players age 10-19 yrs

skills

• Admission criteria: facilities, full-time coaches, scientific, medical and paramedical service staff

 366 centres, 29 full-time coordinators, 1,000 parttime coaches

 2001-2011 • DFB 60  100 full-time coaches • DFL 50  271 full-time coaches (total 650)  No ‘pyramidal’ structure; 800 players per age-year

Investment 1 billion € in 10 years.

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‘The Idea‘ and Structure TID criteria

TDP interventions

 Assessment of performance, performance com-

 High-profile coaching

ponents, performance progress

 Scientific, medical, paramedical services

• ‘Coach’s eye’

 Nutritional consulting

• Anthropometry

 Psychological services

• Performance in competition, motor or physio-

 Support for performance lifestyle

logical tests (sometimes relative to biological maturation) • Less frequent: Psychological trait/skill tests

 Support for education

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‘The Idea‘ and Structure Focus and Content of TDP Interventions: Extensive and Intensive Time Economy

Provision / Support of … Training and Competition

Extra competitions

Stimulus, Incentive

Expansion of training time

Intensification of training time

+

(+)

(+)

Extra training opportunities

Athlete Services

+

Training facilities, equipment

(+)

+

(+)

Coaches

(+)

+

+

Coaches’ education

(+)

+

Early involvement

+

Consulting for performance lifestyle, educational career

+

Nutritional consulting

+

+

Medical care

+

+

Physiotherapy

+

+

Performance assessment (physiology, biomechanics) Centres, Residence

Elite sport school, residential sport school, boarding house

+ +

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‘The Idea‘ and Structure ‘Ideal Type’ of TID and TDP

Three Fundamental Premises

 The future ‘high-performers’ are identified at a

1. Talent can already be identified at a young age.

young age by signs of early exceptionality.

2. Top senior performance results from long-term

 Continuous TDP facilitates extensive and intensive

continuous development within a sport. Success

time economy of their training process in a sport.

increases with progressive duration of involve-

 With extending duration, training volume and per-

ment, together with extended training volume and

formance increase, the athlete ascends progressively through the TDP stages, and the TDP interventions are gradually intensified.

intensified supportive interventions. 3. Long-term development of excellence can be positively influenced by TDP interventions at a young age, implying expansion and intensification of training time.

Questions Specific Research into TID and TDP Q1

Do characteristics assessed in early TID correlate with later performance?

Q2

Does early selection and involvement in TDP correlate with later senior success?

Q3

Does early TID/TDP preferentially select (se-

lection effect) and facilitate (intervention/socialisation effect) developmental participation patterns that benefit long-term development of senior success?

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Performance / Success

Individualistic Approach vs. Collectivistic Approach

TDP

General soccer club population Time / Age

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Performance / Success

Individualistic Approach vs. Collectivistic Approach

TDP

General soccer club population Time / Age

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Questions Empirical Expectations Individualistic Approach

Collectivistic Approach

 Interventions applied to the selected athletes expedite their performance progress, and lead to increased eventual senior performance.

 The collective of successful senior athletes is composed by athletes entering TDP early or late, whereas the latter develop outside TDP over longer periods.

 The successful senior athletes come exactly from the ranks of the early selected youngsters.  There is little or no fluctuation in the TDP population over age stages.

 The population of senior ‘top performers’ emerges in the course of repeated selection, de-selection, and replacements of players through all stages.

 ‘Idea’ of early TID/TDP draws on this approach.

 It is essentially irrelevant exactly who will become the successful senior athletes.  There may be considerable fluctuation within the TDP population.

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Questions Specific Research into TID and TDP Q1 Q2 Q3

Do characteristics assessed in early TID cor-

Q4 To what extent does the population of senior

relate with later performance?

elite athletes (a) develop from those selected

Does early selection and involvement in TDP

early and their long-term continuous TDP nur-

correlate with later senior success?

turing, or rather (b) emerge via the course of re-

Does early TID/TDP preferentially select (se-

peated selection, de-selection and replacements

lection effect) and facilitate (intervention/so-

across the different age categories?

cialisation effect) developmental participation patterns that benefit long-term development of senior success?

Performance / Success

Testing Individualistic Approach vs. Collectivistic Approach

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3. 2.

1.

Time / Age

State of Research (1) Predictive Accuracy of Early TID Approach in TID  Use individual differences in early TID criteria to predict future individual differences in performance / success. Impediments to the Accuracy of Early TID  Complex and dynamic nature of ‘talent’; non-linear developmental performance trajectories  Task demands, performers’ characteristics, and

environmental factors vary, they change over time, and they interact with one another.

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State of Research (1) Predictive Accuracy of Early TID Impediments to Accurate Early TID Task Demands

Performer

 Success depends on interaction with opponents. Their performance cannot be influenced.

 Variation in adolescent biological maturation.

 Performance components may be mutually compensable.

 Variation of psychological traits/skills inter-individually and intra-individually over time.

 Relative significance of performance components changes across age.

Environment

 The performance structure and demands change across athlete generations.

 Variation of relative age (RAE).

 Variation of prior and future training inter- and intra-individually over time.

 Variation of socio-material environments inter- and intra-individually over time.

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State of Research (1) Predictive Accuracy of Early TID Multi year longitudinal studies

Prediction rate in the field

 Some studies 0% predictive power (Bottoni et al.,

 Ackerman, 2013: ‘Base Rate’ and ‘Success Rate’

2011; Gee et al., 2010; Kuzmits & Adams, 2008; Lidor et

Assumptions

al., 2005a).

• 1/1,000 youngsters becomes world-class

 Other studies up to 70% correct assignment to higher or lower performing groups (Falk et al., 2004; Figueiredo et al., 2009; Gonaus & Müller, 2012; Höner et al., 2015; Le Gall et al., 2008; Lidor et al., 2005b; Till et al., 2015; Vandorpe et al., 2012; Van Yperen, 2009; Zuber et

• 70% correct assignment

 Probability of a positively identified talent to become senior world-class is 0.2%. 90% correct assignment  0.9% probability

al., 2015); two studies even higher (Forsman et al.,

Empirical ‘Success Rates’

2015; Pion et al., 2015).

 Studies suggest ‘success rates’ up to 2.0% (Ackerman, 2013; Gray & Plucker, 2010; Güllich, 2014a; Güllich & Emrich, 2005b; Höner et al., 2015; Hong, 2008; Ljach, 1997; Malina, 2010; Morris et al., 2004; Pion et al., 2015; Sands, 20012; Vaeyens et al., 2009).

 Problem is in the nature of the subject, rather than deficient scientific sophistication.

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State of Research (2) Involvement and Development within TDP: Research Programme “Efficacy of TDP” Sample

Study design

Relevant studied aspects

20 national systems: AUS, USA, 18 East/West-Europe

DA + QA: CS

Sport system, TID criteria, selection age, elite sport schools, athlete services, success

7 NSOs squads, n=4,686; athletics, cycling, field hockey, rowing, table tennis, weightlifting, wrestling

DA: LT 7 yrs

Member fluctuation, selection age, stage transitions, exit age, success

Soccer national U15-19 squads, n=1,059 players; 13 youth academies, n=1,420; Bundesliga players, n=624

DA: RS, LT 13 yrs

Member fluctuation, selection age, exit age, success

Squad athletes, all Olympic sports, n=1,558 (RS), n=244 (LT)

QA: RS, LT 3 yrs

Selection age, athlete services, training volume and continuity, success

39 Elite sport schools, n=11,286 (QA: n=199)

DA: LT 3 y; QA: RS

Member fluctuation, selection age, athlete services, success

246 sport clubs nominated by their NSOs for ‘exemplary TDP’

QA: LT 3 yrs

Member success

Study design: DA – document analysis, QA – Questionnaire, CS – cross-sectional, RS – retrospective, LT - longitudinal

fluctuation,

athlete

services,

Emrich & Güllich, 2016; Flatau et al., 2013; Güllich, 2014a; Güllich & Emrich, 2005a,b; 2012, 2013, 2014; Güllich et al., 2005

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State of Research (2.1) Transitions between squad stages Conceptualized

Empirical

Güllich & Emrich, 2012

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State of Research (2.1) Athlete Turnover within different TDPs Mean annual

Probability of Persistence

turnover 1

After 3 years

After 5 yrars

“Exemplary TDP” sport clubs

19%

53%

35%

Güllich et al., 2005

Elite Sport Schools

28%

37%

19%

Güllich & Emrich, 2005b

Soccer youth academies

25%

43%

24%

Güllich, 2014a

NSOs’ squads (7 sports) 2

44%

16%

5%

Güllich & Emrich, 2012

NSO’s squads (soccer)

41%

21%

7%

Güllich, 2014a

TDP

1

Annual athlete turnover:

(number of entries + number of exits) / 2 total members

2

Athletics, cycling, field hockey, rowing, table tennis, weightlifting, and wrestling.

Reference

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State of Research (2.1) Soccer: TDP Entry Age and Duration of Persistence in TDP

Note: Percentages are row-wise.

Güllich, 2014a

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State of Research (2.2) Age structure of TDP Careers and Success Duration, entry age, and exit age  74% of squad careers up to 2 years; only 26% longer.  Correlation: “The younger the entry – the younger the exit”; r=0.92.

 The higher the squad level attained – the older the age of first selection.  Retrospective analyses within senior athletes: Late ‘side-entrants’ over-represented in worldclass compared to national-class (squad system: 2 yrs later; athlete service centre 2 yrs later, elite sport school (where applicable) 3 yrs later.

Age of Entry Achieved squad level

M

(±SD)

D-squad (federal state squad)

15.3

2.2

C-squad (national junior squad)

16.8

2.5

A-squad (senior world class)

18.9

3.6

Güllich, 2014a; Güllich & Emrich, 2005b, 2012, 2013

State of Research (2.2)

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Soccer: Entry Age into National U-Teams and Later Senior Success Level

Güllich, 2014a

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State of Research (2.2) Soccer: Entry Age into (former Youth) TDP among current Senior Elite Players Senior Elite Players

-U10/11

U12/13

U14/15

U16/17

U18/19

Entry Youth Academy

23.5%

18.5%

23.5%

16.5%

8.3%

National A-Team Players Entry Youth Academy

19.8%

18.5%

22.2%

21.0%

9.9%

6.2%

21.0%

21.0%

1st Bundesliga Players

Entry National U-Teams ‘Building-up’ of the Population (cumulative figures) 1st Bundesliga Players

Entry Youth Academy

23.5%

42.1%

65.6%

82.1%

90.4%

National A-Team Players Entry Youth Academy

19.8%

38.3%

60.5%

81.5%

91.4%

6.2%

27.2%

48.2%

Entry National (U-) Team

Güllich, 2014a

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State of Research (2.3) Selection Age and Participation History

Once selected, participation in athlete services  another 95% greater enhancement of specific training through the subsequent 3 years. Emrich & Güllich, 2016; Güllich & Cobley, 2016

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Summary Q1 Q2

Future ‘top athletes’ cannot be predicted relia-

 Most TDP careers are short.

bly by way of TID at a young age.

 Earlier age entry correlates with earlier age exit.

Particularly early TDP involvement is neither

 Early TID/TDP recruits great numbers of youngsters and ‘tries them out’, and expands the frequency of youngsters ‘tried out’ through increased athlete turnover.

necessary nor beneficial, but correlates negatively with long-term senior success.

Q3

Early TID and TDP preferentially selects, and further reinforces, developmental participation patterns that are inconsistent with those patterns likely to lead to long-term international senior success.

E.g., soccer: U-NT: 175 places  600 players in 5 yrs YA:

7,900 places  19,500 players in 5 yrs

Some are retained while most are de-selected and replaced within short by others.  Most successful senior athletes were only involved in TDP at later ages.  Most early selected do not become successful seniors, while most successful seniors were not amongst those selected early.

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Summary Soccer Players in TDP: Proportions of Senior Success Levels Achieved Later TDP Players

Later Senior Success Level

Within Youth Academies

Within National U-Teams

-U10/11

U12/13

U14/15

U16/17

U18/19

Later National A-Team

0.1%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.3%

Later 1st Bundesliga Later Below

0.3% 99.6%

0.4% 99.5%

0.6% 99.2%

0.9% 98.8%

1.1% 98.6%

Later National A-Team

1.5%

6.7%

11.9%

Later 1st Bundesliga Later Below

2.7% 95.8%

12.9% 80.4%

26.9% 62.2%

(Former Youth) Involvement of Current Senior Elite Players in TDP -U10/11

U12/13

U14/15

U16/17

U18/19

1st Bundesliga Players

Entry Youth Academy

23.5%

42.1%

65.6%

82.1%

90.4%

National A-Team Players

Entry Youth Academy Entry National (U-) Team

19.8%

38.3%

60.5% 6.2%

81.5% 27.2%

91.4% 48.2%

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Summary Q1

Future ‘top athletes’ cannot be predicted reliably by way of TID at a young age.

Q2

Particularly early TDP involvement is neither necessary nor beneficial, but correlates negatively with long-term senior success.

Q3

Early TID and TDP preferentially selects, and further reinforces, developmental participation patterns that are inconsistent with those patterns likely leading to long-term international senior success.

Q4

The population of senior top athletes emerges in the course of repeated selection, de-selection, and replacement across all age ranges; rather than originating from early selected youngsters and their continuous TDP nurturing.

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Discussion (1) Uncertainty of Early TID and TDP Confluence of Impediments  Variation and interaction of factors of the task, the person, and the environment (see above).

 Youth Academies: 0.3-0.8% of an age year. National U-Teams: