Tackling Complexity in Aid for Trade: System Dynamics frameworks and models International Trade Centre: Towards a Common Framework for Impact Evaluation in Trade‐Related Technical Assistance, June 2014 Kim Warren
© Strategy Dynamics Ltd. All rights reserved www.strategydynamics.com
OUTLINE Project background and purpose Why the Trade “system” is difficult (like others!) Seeing total Trade = sum of its parts Generic structure of a trade border (+ working models) Organising the portfolio of Trade‐improvement efforts Issues, challenges and limitations
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Background … A DFID‐funded research project on “Complex systems tools” Seeking new ways to analyse and understand the problems and issues DFID works on … being clear and transparent about the assumptions and limitations of existing tools Exploring the potential of new tools better suited to dealing with complex, dynamic realities; focusing on wealth creation Examining implications for DFID’s current business models … led by Ben Ramalingam, ODI and author of Aid on the edge of Chaos, http://aidontheedge.info/ )
The 4 pilot projects on complex systems tools … System dynamics of Aid for Trade (AfT) in Nigeria … for the analysis, design, planning, managing, monitoring and evaluation of AfT initiatives (specifically for smaller‐scale export activity of direct benefit to those in poverty Network analysis techniques with the Girl Hub project in N. Nigeria … to test the method’s relevance for informing stakeholder‐based theories of change and strategies for the empowerment of girls ‘Complexity‐informed theory of change’ for private sector development (PSD) in the Democratic Republic of Congo (subsequently, a system dynamics analysis has been performed for PSD in 4 large sectors of the Nepal economy) Systems thinking and mapping of DFID’s End‐to‐End Programme Management
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Conclusions from the pilot complex‐systems projects … Legitimise the trial of new approaches for understanding the complex problems of Aid Establish a rich picture of problems from the start … a view of the systems, the network, the behaviours and the dynamics around a given issue Recognise the whole ‘aid chain’ and ensure that ex‐ante design and analysis joins up with downstream implementation and evaluation Network with others – scientists, private sector and the wider public sector where the necessary capabilities are established Build on the established ‘plan and control’ model by encouraging ‘experiment and adapt’ in addition
Aims of the system dynamics project on AfT … Support new DFID Aid‐for‐Trade program * pilot the use of system dynamics with model(s) of DFID trade‐related interventions … and for the next 5‐year Nigeria programme (only partially achieved)
Start‐point … An existing Monitoring and Evaluation framework is in place … but DFID sees limitations, caused by the system‐nature of Trade
Benefits looked for assess ways forward for the Aid‐for‐Trade programme inform economic appraisal of the programme support future programme management * The style of system dynamics mapping and modelling adopted in this study is highly evidence‐based and quantitative, not to be confused with other styles of system dynamics work, such as qualitative feedback mapping.
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OUTLINE Project background and purpose Why the Trade “system” is difficult (like others!) Seeing total Trade = sum of its parts Generic structure of a trade border (+ working models) Organising the portfolio of Trade‐improvement efforts Issues, challenges and limitations
The “logical framework” for evaluation and monitoring*
Inputs
Activities
Financial, human and material resources
Task undertaken to transform inputs into outputs
Outputs
Outcomes
Products/services Behavioural changes: produced or intended + unintended delivered positive + negative
Impacts Long‐term, widespread improvement in society
* DFID Working Paper 26, Feb‐2011, “Sharing the Benefits of Trade: DFID’s Aid for Trade Portfolio ‐ Monitoring and Evaluation Framework”, SAANA Consulting
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The “logical framework” for evaluation and monitoring*
Inputs
Activities
Outputs
Outcomes
Task undertaken to Increased access to infrastructure transform inputs into More access to trade facilitation outputs More/better infrastructure (e.g. km of roads) More/better trade facilitation services Increased access to productive sector More/better productive sector services (e.g. business development) Better/simpler trade‐related regulations and procedures More of private sector engaging in trade More LDCs with trade in development strategies More LDCs implementing trade elements of development * DFID Working Paper 26, Feb‐2011, “Sharing the Benefits More trade strategies/policies of Trade: DFID’s Aid for Trade Portfolio ‐ Monitoring and implemented Evaluation Framework”, SAANA Consulting Financial, human and material resources
Impacts
Intermediate : Reduction in non‐tariff barriers Reduction in time to trade Reduction in trade costs Improved market access Higher capacity to trade (including poor and excluded groups) Eventual: Increased international trade Increased intra‐regional trade Increased investment Increased share of world trade Increased value‐added exports Greater diversification of exports Increased productivity/competitiveness More suppliers engaging in trade
Increased, sustained growth Reduced poverty More employment for poor and excluded groups Higher incomes for poor and excluded groups
The bigger challenge: many projects: many agencies (Nigeria change projects only, policy studies + institutional support are additional) Government Implement systems for “single widow” facility Bill to update existing Customs Management Act Implement 48‐hour clearance policy Implement 24/7 operation at the port Strengthen NCS manpower to achieve items above Reduce agencies at the port from 16 to 6 Increase professionalism of NCS Increase focus on enabling trade v. collecting revenue US AID Customs modernisation Agricultural growth along Lagos‐Kano‐Jibiya corridor Cut hold time at Lagos ports and Seme Border post Implement the ECOWAS Common External Tariff Business service provision to exporting enterprises
DFID Okerete joint border post trial – bridge, roads, market Advice on professionalising Customs (Crown Agents) GIZ Increase NCS training capacity Joint cross‐border controls with neighbour countries Training for Ministry of Trade & Investment Regional Facilitation initiatives Transport facilitation (joint crossings, corridors, single windows, border procedures …) Trade facilitation initiatives (various) Abidjan‐Lagos Trade and Transport facilitation project Authorised economic operator program ECOWAS Regional Transit System Borderless Initiative
European Union Joint Nigeria : Benin border post (Seme‐Krake)
How to understand the interactions and consequences of all these? How to coordinate for best overall impact?
Source: Nigeria Trade Facilitation Review, SAANA Consulting.
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Difficulties with the current framework
Inputs
Activities
Financial, human and material resources
Task undertaken to transform inputs into outputs
Outputs
Outcomes
Impacts
Products/services Behavioural changes: produced or intended + unintended delivered positive + negative
Long‐term, widespread improvement in society
Cause‐effect relationships are unclear … due to the system‐nature of export trading
Outcomes reflect how the system responds to the Outputs arising from Inputs + Activities
Inputs
Activities
Build roads
Outputs
Access to border
The Trade system
Outcomes
Impacts
[starting to trade is easier]
more people trade less poverty
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Feedback within the trade system and from Outcomes
Inputs
Activities
Outputs
The Trade system
Outcomes
Impacts
people trade For example:
people trade
delays at borders
visible trade opportunities
people start trading
people start trading and others stop
4 reasons why designing and managing a system is hard! Examples
Consequences
Accumulation : Critical factors build up or deplete over long periods
Building road capacity Training border staff Encouraging people to engage in trade
Long delays from action to impact Things get worse before they get better
Interdependence : Change depends on more than one factor
Road access and port capacity are both needed for people to start trading
Interventions may have no apparent impact … providing roads may make no difference if port delays increase
Feedback : Interdependence causes Successful growth of people trading changes that either accelerate or encourages others to start … but border brake their own progress capacity stifles growth
Desirable and undesirable changes can run away with themselves The system can “resist” efforts to improve its performance
Thresholds : The system is unresponsive to change over a wide range, then switches to a new mode
Apparent failure of interventions, while moving to the tipping point
Traders are not interested in potential profit of $X‐3X, but respond en‐masse at $4X.
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4 reasons why designing and managing a system is hard! Examples
Consequences
Accumulation : Critical factors build up or deplete over long periods
Building road capacity Training border staff Encouraging people to engage in trade
Long delays from action to impact Things get worse before they get better
Interdependence : Change depends on more than one factor
Road access and port capacity are both needed for people to start trading
Interventions may have no apparent impact … providing roads may make no difference if port delays increase
Feedback : Interdependence causes Successful growth of people trading changes that either accelerate or encourages others to start … but border brake their own progress capacity stifles growth
Desirable and undesirable changes can run away with themselves The system can “resist” efforts to improve its performance
Thresholds : The system is unresponsive to change over a wide range, then switches to a new mode
Apparent failure of interventions, while moving to the tipping point
Traders are not interested in potential profit of $X‐3X, but respond en‐masse at $4X.
System dynamics deals explicitly with all these mechanisms (agent‐based and discrete‐event methods too, suited to certain types of challenge)
OUTLINE Project background and purpose Why the Trade “system” is difficult (like others!) Seeing total Trade = sum of its parts Generic structure of a trade border (+ working models) Organising the portfolio of Trade‐improvement efforts Issues, challenges and limitations
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The start‐point: time‐charts of system performance There is a history … the situation could get worse … and will take time to fix Outputs
Outcomes volume of trade
hours
bad
now
good
numbers in poverty
good
bad
now
millions
now
‘000 tons/day
delays at ports and borders
Impacts
years
years
bad
good years
These are our overall aims, but trade occurs through each individual border crossing and port.
Disaggregating the trade system Inputs
Activities
Outputs
The trade system
Outcomes
Impacts
Total trade = sum of all trade through each mode
Over‐land trade
Sea‐borne trade
Air‐borne trade
… and total trade through each mode = sum of trade through all crossings
Large land Large land Small land borders Large land borders borders Large land borders Each land borders border
Small ports Large ports Large ports Each port
Large airports Large airports Each airport
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2 levels of understanding … Inputs
Activities
The trade system
Outputs
Over‐land trade
1 … for policy and interventions across all borders and ports 2 … for specific factors at each border or port.
Sea‐borne trade
Large land borders Large land borders Large land borders
Large land Large land Small land borders Large land borders Large land borders Small land borders borders borders border
Outcomes
Impacts
Air‐borne trade
Large ports
Large airports
Small ports Large ports Large ports Small ports
Large airports Large airports Small airports
We need to understand all enablers and disablers at each crossing. Example: a single, small land border
OUTLINE Project background and purpose Why the Trade “system” is difficult (like others!) Seeing total Trade = sum of its parts Generic structure of a trade border (+ working models) Organising the portfolio of Trade‐improvement efforts Issues, challenges and limitations
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Trade through a land‐border: desired Outcomes A desired Outcome A Resource causing the Outcome
traders using the crossing
trading volume good now bad years
years
trading frequency
Another factor causing the Outcome
The behaviour of Resources (“accumulating stocks”) “If we know A (traders) we can work out B (trade volume)” A “resource” or “stock”
trading volume and value
traders using the crossing
people starting to trade per month
people ceasing trading per month
3,000 last month $50 250
$50 150
3,100 this month A “flow‐rate” – how fast the stock is increasing or being lost “Flow‐rates” drive the resources … and therefore how performance changes over time … so flow‐rates are the items we need to control
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Accumulation (and depletion) continue over time To grow the number of people engaged in trade faster … 1. new people must start trading faster …
traders using the crossing
people starting to trade per month
good
$50 250
… and/or 2. people must cease trading more slowly.
people stop trading per month
$50 150
now bad years
If both flows change slowly, (If both flows change slowly, little progress is made). little progress results.
Growing trade participation If this is to grow … then this must grow … so this must be higher net increase in traders per month
traders using the crossing
trading volume good now
This is the critical item – another desired Outcome (and is the net of gains minus losses) … so why do people make this choice?
bad
$5 0
years years
trading frequency
… and why do people make this choice?
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What causes traders to start or stop? I start trading if I see others make money income per trader
net increase in traders per month
traders using the crossing
trading volume good now bad
$5 0
I stop trading if I can’t cross the border
years years
trading frequency
border delays: hours
delay
Border delays happen if more people want to cross than can be handled
attempted crossings per day
maximum crossings per day
corruption
tariffs
I trade less if tariffs and corruption take my money, or delays cut my income
Interdependence on other existing resources More roads enable more traders to reach the crossing
income per trader
road capacity and reach net increase in traders per month
$5 0
traders using the crossing
trading volume good now bad
$5 0
permitted products
years years
trading frequency
border delays: hours
attempted crossings per day
delay
$5 0
More permitted products make opportunities for more traders
maximum crossings per day
corruption
tariffs
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Interdependence causes feedback “Reinforcing” feedback drives self‐ sustaining growth ... more people trading more start trading … (or decline) road capacity and reach traders using the crossing
net increase in traders per month
$5 0
R
income per trader trading volume good now bad
$5 0
permitted products
years
B
$5 0
trading frequency
attempted crossings per day
delay
border delays: hours
years
maximum crossings per day
corruption
tariffs
“Balancing” feedback stifles growth ... more people trading more delays people stop trading
Supply‐side resources grow capacity income per trader
road capacity and reach
traders using the crossing
net increase in traders per month
$5 0
trading volume good now bad
$5 0
years
permitted products
years
trading frequency $5 0
border delays: hours
border buildings & equipment
maximum crossings per day
attempted crossings per day
process efficiency
delay
capacity needs more physical and human resources
corruption
$5 0
tariffs
$5 0
border staff $5 0
capacity also needs more intangible resources
staff skills $5 0
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Supply‐side resources grow capacity income per trader
road capacity and reach
… no different in London, Shanghai or anywhere else! … an “engineering” theory (incorporating economics)
traders using the crossing
net increase in traders per month
$5 0
trading volume good now bad
$5 0
years
permitted products
years
trading frequency attempted crossings per day
border delays: hours
A generic theory of how export trading actually works
border buildings & equipment
maximum crossings per day
process efficiency
delay
$5 0
corruption
$5 0
tariffs
$5 0
border staff
staff skills $5 0
$5 0
Action options to grow the system and Outcomes educate traders income per trader
road capacity and reach
km./month of new roads
build roads
traders using the crossing
net increase in traders per month
$5 0
trading volume good now bad
$5 0
permitted products
permit more products
years
trading frequency
border delays: hours
border buildings & equipment
maximum crossings per day
attempted crossings per day
process efficiency
set best tariff rates
delay
$5 0
add and develop crossings
years
corruption
$5 0
tariffs
$5 0
hire officials
border staff $5 0
staff skills $5 0
streamline documents & processes
officials’ pay and discipline
train officials
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Part of a working model on attracting traders …
More roads enable more traders to reach the crossing
More permitted products make opportunities for more traders
The working model is at www.sdl.re/DFIDtradeM1 (latest‐version browser required)
Implications for Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation Plan Inputs+Activities by assessing likely immediate Outputs road capacity and reach
km./month of new roads
build roads
Estimate Outcomes, by working through the cause‐effect but check impact of other initiatives + feedback
$5 0
net increase in traders per month
traders using the crossing
trading volume good now
$5 0
bad years years
Inputs
Activities
Outputs
Outcomes
Impacts
Financial, human and material resources
Task undertaken to transform inputs into outputs
Products/services produced or delivered
Behavioural changes: intended + unintended positive + negative
Long‐term, widespread improvement in society – impossible to ascribe to any project or programme.
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Implications for Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation Monitor direct Outputs and Evaluate against direct Inputs+Activities road capacity and reach
km./month of new roads
build roads
Monitor Outcomes, but can only Evaluate them against the whole programme of Inputs+Activities net increase in traders per month
$5 0
traders using the crossing
trading volume good now
$5 0
bad years years
Inputs
Activities
Outputs
Outcomes
Impacts
Financial, human and material resources
Task undertaken to transform inputs into outputs
Products/services produced or delivered
Behavioural changes: intended + unintended positive + negative
Long‐term, widespread improvement in society – impossible to ascribe to any project or programme.
Getting the data: simple survey Access How far have you come? How much by road? How long did it take? When did you last make the trip? tells us the number of 1st‐ time traders and frequency How many check‐points stopped you? … for how long at each? How much did you have to pay at each? estimate of bribes What products do you have? Any banned products you could have brought? Capacity How long has it taken to cross the border? How many documents do you need? … and did you have them all? How many different officials have you seen? How many hours are left for you to sell your goods?
Profitability What duty have you had to pay? What other payments have you had to make? … for what reason? estimate of bribes What did your goods cost you (money or labour)? How much do you expect to sell them for? gives likely profit How much money do you need to make for the trip to be worthwhile? Is anything changing … When will you likely make another trip? Same products or different? What would make it easier + quicker to get to the border? What would make it quicker to cross the border? What would improve the profit you can make on each trip?
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Monitoring and evaluation examples from a working model
The working model is at www.sdl.re/DFIDtradeM1
How to use dynamic mapping/modeling? … 3 options: 1. Manual model only ‘sketch’ estimated scale and time‐path of Inputs, Outputs and Outcomes implicitly estimating the interdependencies plot actual results against Plan manually each period adjust projects and spend+effort in light of progress
2. Manual model, in software enter numerical estimates for Inputs, Outputs and Outcomes include simple calculations to save effort enter actual results to compare with Plan adjust projects and spend+effort in light of progress
3. Functioning software model enter numerical estimates for Inputs, Outputs and Outcomes … and compute expected relationships enter actual results to compare with Plan adjust the model to evaluate changes to projects and spend+effort
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OUTLINE Project background and purpose Why the Trade “system” is difficult (like others!) Seeing total Trade = sum of its parts Generic structure of a trade border (+ working models) Organising the portfolio of Trade‐improvement efforts Issues, challenges and limitations
The same system for all border types, and all crossings Airports Ports Land borders Large ports
Large land borders Large land borders
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Requirements for the trade system to work Inputs
Activities
The trade system
Outputs
Outcomes
Impacts
poverty
Access
increase number of traders
active traders
income per trader
trading volume & value good now
$5 0
bad years years
border delays rate of increase
what exists at any time
trading frequency
Profitability Capacity
Resources enabling traders and trading… Access
roads Km border posts
net increase traders per month
active traders
income per trader
trading volume & value good now bad years
$5 0 years
border delays
attempted crossings per day
trading frequency
access to finance customers & markets
profitability
Capacity
maximum crossings per day
buildings & equipment staff & skills
Profitability
Crossing capacity
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“Negative” resources disabling traders and trading … Access
banned products check‐points
roads Km border posts
net increase traders per month
income per trader
active traders
trading volume & value good now bad years
$5 0 years
border delays
access to finance customers & markets
trading frequency
attempted crossings per day
profitability
Capacity
maximum crossings per day
buildings & equipment staff & skills
number of agencies number of documents corrupt officials
Crossing capacity
corrupt officials duties
Capacity destroyers
Profitability
Build the enablers and cut the disablers … Access
banned products check‐points
roads Km border posts
$5 0
$5 0
net increase traders per month
active traders
income per trader
trading volume & value good now bad years
$5 0 years
border delays
attempted crossings per day
profitability
Capacity
maximum crossings per day
buildings & equipment staff & skills $5 0
Crossing capacity
number of agencies number of documents corrupt officials
Capacity destroyers
access to finance customers & markets
trading frequency $5 0
corrupt officials duties $5 0
$5 0
Profitability
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Successful trade development creates potential traders banned products check‐points
roads Km border posts
Access
$5 0
$5 0
new potential traders per month
potential traders: inactive
net increase traders per month
active traders
trading volume & value good
income per trader
now bad years
$5 0
$5 0 years
years
border delays
attempted crossings per day
access to finance customers & markets
trading frequency $5 0
profitability
Capacity
maximum crossings per day
buildings & equipment staff & skills $5 0
Crossing capacity
number of agencies number of documents corrupt officials
corrupt officials duties $5 0
$5 0
Capacity destroyers
Profitability
Mapping World Bank indicators onto the system These are high‐level aggregate indicators (understandably) Each reflects specific resources in our framework (+ve and ‐ve) 2. Roads and infrastructure
Some items missing (banned products, duties, standards …)
Access
increase number of traders
active traders
income per trader
now
$5 0
4. Quality of logistics services
trading volume & value good bad years
years
border delays
trading frequency
Profitability Capacity 3. Competitively price shipping 1. Effectiveness of clearing system
5. Consignment tracking 6. Timeliness of shipping
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Initiatives’ impact, by mode, by location (illustrative) X no impact : some impact : big impact All land borders
Crossing Crossing Crossing Crossing 1 2 3 … N
All ports
Port 1
Port 2
Port 3
Port … N
X
X
X
All airports
Airport 1
Airport … N
X
X
Airport 1
Airport … N
Enablers Add crossings/ports
X
X
X
Create a crossing or port at specific locations
Initiatives’ impact, by mode, by location (illustrative) All land borders
Crossing Crossing Crossing Crossing 1 2 3 … N
All ports
Port 1
Port 2
Port 3
Port … N
All airports
Enablers Add crossings/ports
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Build roads
X
X
X
X
Train staff
Create markets
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Grow access to finance
Train staff for all locations
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Initiatives’ impact, by mode, by location (illustrative) All land borders
Crossing Crossing Crossing Crossing 1 2 3 … N
All ports
Port 1
Port 2
Port 3
Port … N
All airports
Airport 1
Airport … N
Enablers Add crossings/ports
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Build roads
X
X
X
X
Train staff
Create markets
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Grow access to finance
X
X
X
Same approach for trade Disablers
Disablers
X
X
Cut check‐points
X
X
X
X
X
X
Reduce agencies
X
X
X
X
Port 1
Port 2
Port 3
Port …
Airport 1
Airport …
Cut banned products
Fewer documents Cut corruption
Some initiatives have broad impact All land borders
Crossing Crossing Crossing Crossing 1 2 3 …
All ports
All airports
Enablers Add crossings/ports
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Build roads
X
X
X
X
Train staff
Create markets
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Grow access to finance
Some initiatives have broad impact
Disablers Cut banned products
X
X
X
X
X
Cut check‐points
X
X
X
X
X
X
Reduce agencies
X
X
X
X
Fewer documents Cut corruption
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Some initiatives have differential local impact All land borders
Crossing Crossing Crossing Crossing 1 2 3 …
All ports
Port 1
Port 2
Port 3
Port …
All airports
Airport 1
Airport …
Enablers Add crossings/ports
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Build roads
X
X
X
X
Train staff
Create markets
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Grow access to finance
X
X
X
Cut check‐points
X
Reduce agencies
X
Some initiatives have different local impacts
Disablers Cut banned products
Fewer documents Cut corruption
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Airport 1
Airport …
X
Some project are local, and need multiple initiatives All land borders
Crossing Crossing Crossing Crossing 1 2 3 …
All ports
Port 1
Port 2
Port 3
Port …
All airports
Enablers Add crossings/ports
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Build roads
X
X
X
X
Train staff
Create markets
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Grow access to finance
Disablers Cut banned products
X
X
X
X
X
Cut check‐points
X
X
X
X
X
X
Reduce agencies
X
X
X
X
Fewer documents Cut corruption
Some projects are location‐specific (e.g. Okarete)
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Check‐list of Enablers and Disablers ENABLERS Access
Capacity
Profitability
DISABLERS
Roads Border posts Ports Educate potential traders Product standards …
Banned product Internal check‐points …
Staff: each Agency Skills Procedures Buildings Equipment + Systems …
Number of agencies Number of documents …
Markets Customers Financial services …
Corrupt officials Duties …
Additional items to consider: waterways, seaports, rail infrastructure truck operators reliable power supplies education and skills of traders legislation regional integration (ECOWAS etc.) risk based controls automation Free‐trade zones “Authorised Economic Operator” …
Current and prospective projects: DFID + other agencies What actual and prospective project or intervention, by which agency, is aimed at which factors?
ENABLERS Access
Projects + interventions Roads
DISABLERS Access
Internal check‐points
Border posts + ports
Capacity Capacity
Projects + interventions Product bans
Number of agencies
Staff & skills Number of documents Buildings + equipment
Profitability Profitability
Markets & customers
Corrupt officials
Duties
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OUTLINE Project background and purpose Why the Trade “system” is difficult (like others!) Seeing total Trade = sum of its parts Generic structure of a trade border (+ working models) Organising the portfolio of Trade‐improvement efforts Issues, challenges and limitations + next steps
Issues, challenges, and limitations How to specify relationships in the models: most are arithmetical involve experienced parties check performance against reality
Identifying tipping points many arise when 2 trajectories cross (e.g. rising demand approaches a capacity limit) behavioural tipping points from research and other cases, especially where crises occur
Binding constraints models show particular constraints at any point in time – removing one constraint releases performance until the next is reached (implements “Theory of Constraints”)
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Issues, challenges, and limitations External factors: trading behaviour also reflects market conditions, enterprise‐ development and producer‐trader relationships – using the model for guidance must recognise these limitations
Where to stop (model boundaries)? … at the point where enough confidence has been gained (recognising the additional factors above)
Team‐based model development this is a pilot project, to illustrate the opportunity, though knowledgeable parties are being consulted any real project must be done with those involved, including diverse expertise
Issues, challenges, and limitations Lack of data: start with well‐informed estimates use experience from people familiar with other cases design simple data‐collection and adjust the model as we learn
Aim = to improve the system (not just avoid mistakes) use simple models to identify immediate constraints simulate promising projects and the programme model impact of initiatives affecting more than 1 transport mode adjust initiatives and the models as progress provides more data
Gaining partner adoption of the approach involve partners in developing the models … and in selecting/designing projects … and use the data from tests
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Critical … building shared understanding What is the best trade value you can build, when you can only focus on limited initiatives
Engaging games Joint planning Training Just do it! Learn the value of the approach Questions?
See www.simudyne.com/nigeria
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