Table Of Contents
Table Of Contents
MSCI Indexes Global Stock Markets YTD (OECD) Global Stock Markets YTD (EM) Stock Markets: USA Stock Markets: Americas Stock Markets: Europe Stock Markets: Europe (cont) Stock Markets: Asia Stock Markets: Russia, Eastern Europe, Middle East Stock Markets: Africa Dow Theory Technology Heavy Stock Markets Commodity Heavy Stock Markets Capital Goods Heavy Stock Markets US$ Forex Rates: Europe Trade-Weighted Dollar US$ Forex Rates: Asia US$ Forex Rates: Americas 10-Year Government Yields Commodity Prices Commodity Prices (cont) Commodities YTD Stock Market vs. Crude Oil & Copper Prices Trade Weighted Dollar S&P 500 S&P 1500/500/400/600 YTD S&P 500: Consumer Discretionary S&P 500: Consumer Discretionary (cont) S&P 500: Consumer Discretionary: Retailers S&P 500: Consumer Staples S&P 500: Consumer Staples (cont) S&P 500: Energy S&P 500: Financials S&P 500: Financials (cont) S&P 500: Health Care S&P 500: Health Care (cont) S&P 500: Industrials S&P 500: Industrials (cont)
1-2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9-10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23-24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31-32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42-43
continued...
October 3, 2011 / Global Markets Briefing
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
S&P 500: Information Technology S&P 500: Information Technology (cont) S&P 500: Materials S&P 500: Materials (cont) S&P 500: Telecommunication Services S&P 500: Utilities
October 3, 2011 / Global Markets Briefing
44 45 46 47 48 49
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
- MSCI Indexes Figure 1. 1400 1200
1400
SHARE PRICE INDEXES (ratio scale)
1200
World
1000
1000
800
9/30
600
800
600
200-day moving average 400
400 1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
1900
1900
1700
1700
Europe
1500
1500
1300
1300
1100
1100 10/3
900
700
900
700
500
500 1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
1300
1300
EAFE*
1100
1100
900
900
700
700 10/3
yardeni.com
500 1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
500
2012
*Europe, Australia, and Far East. Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International.
Page 1 / October 3, 2011 / Global Markets Briefing
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
- MSCI Indexes Figure 2. 60000 50000
60000
SHARE PRICE INDEXES (ratio scale)
50000
Emerging Markets
40000
9/30
40000
30000
30000
20000
20000
200 day-moving average 10000
10000 1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
900
900
700
700
Emerging Markets: Asia
10/3
500
300
500
300
100
100 1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
11000
11000
8400
8400
Emerging Markets: Latin America
9/30
5800
3200
5800
3200
yardeni.com
600 1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
600
2012
Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International.
Page 2 / October 3, 2011 / Global Markets Briefing
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
- Global Stock Markets YTD (OECD) Figure 3. 10 5
30
AUSTRALIA
(All Ordinaries)
20
(Athens, SE)
0
(Madrid General Index)
0
0
-10
-10
-10
-20
-15
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
-16.2
-30
-18.3
-20
-20
-40 Nov
Dec
-50
-44.9 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
2011
10 5
10
CANADA
(Toronto 300)
5
-5
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
(IGPA General)
5
(ISEQ Overall)
0 -5 -10
Apr
May
Jun
-25
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Nov
Dec
Nov
Dec
Nov
Dec
Nov
Dec
SWEDEN
(AffarsvardnGen)
-24.5
-30
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
2011
15
ISRAEL
(Tel Aviv 100)
SWITZERLAND (SMI)
5
-5
-5
-15
-15.0
-15
-20
-22.0
-25
-18.5
Jul
-25
-10
-25
-30 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
-35
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
20
CZECH REPUBLIC (PX50)
10
-5
10
ITALY
(FTSE MIB)
5
-20 -25
-25.6
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
-40
5
(CAC 40)
0
5 -5 -15
-27.9
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
-23.1
-25
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Dec
Oct
Nov
Dec
10
MEXICO (Bolsa)
5
-5
0 -5 -13.1
10
(DAX)
5
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
-10
(Amsterdam)
Jun
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
UNITED KINGDOM (FTSE 100)
-14.0
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
UNITED STATES
0 -5 -22.3
-25
-22.7
May
Feb
(S&P 500 Index)
-20 -20
Apr
Jan
5
-15
Mar
-20
10
NETHERLANDS
-5
Feb
-9.9
2011
-10
Jan
(IMKB National 100)
-10
0
0
Oct
TURKEY
2011
GERMANY
Sep
-15
2011
Source: Haver Analytics.
-25
-10
-25
Aug
-20
-20 Nov
Jul
2011
-15
Mar
Jun
2011
FRANCE
Feb
May
-15
2011
Jan
Apr
-10
-30
-30 Apr
Mar
0
-20
Mar
Feb
-5
-10
-15
Feb
Jan
2011
0
Jan
-35
2011
-10
-30
Mar
-20
0
0
10
Feb
-15 -13.2
2011
-35
Jan
2011
0
5
-20
15
-30
-5
10
CHILE
-15
-35
Dec
2011
-10
5
Nov
-20
-5
10
Oct
IRELAND
2011
-25
Sep
-15
-13.5
-15
0
Aug
-10
-10
5
Jul 2011
0
-20
SPAIN
10
10
-5
-25
20
GREECE
-10
-10.0
-30 Nov
Dec
-35
Jan
Feb
2011
Page 3 / October 3, 2011 / Global Markets Briefing
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul 2011
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
-15
yardeni.com Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2011
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
- Global Stock Markets YTD (EM) Figure 4. 10 5
20
ARGENTINA (Merval)
5
INDONESIA (Jakarta)
0
0
-5
-5 0
-15
-10
-20
-15 -9.9
-10
-25 -31.1 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
-20
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
2011
5
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
5
BRAZIL
(Bovespa)
10
MALAYSIA
5
-5
-10
-24.9
-10.4
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
-15
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
2011
Jul
Aug
Sep
10
CHINA
(Dow Jones Shanghai Composite)
Oct
Nov
Dec
0
5 0
Nov
Dec
Nov
Dec
Nov
Dec
Nov
Dec
Nov
Dec
(Kospi)
-14.1
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
TAIWAN (TWSE)
-15
-5
-20 -10
-17.6
-20 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
-15
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
10
(Cairo Case 30)
5
15
PERU (Lima)
10
-20
-20
-42.6 Jun
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
-25
10
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
(Bangkok)
-15
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Oct -16.1
2011
65
THE PHILIPPINES (Manila)
0
Sep
THAILAND
2011
(Hang Seng)
Aug
-10
-21.6
2011
HONG KONG
Jul
-5
-15
-40 May
Mar
0
-10
-30
Apr
Feb
5
-5
Mar
Jan
2011
0
-10
Feb
-30
2011
EGYPT
Jan
-21.8
-25
2011
55
VENEZUELA (IBC)
51.9
45
0
-5
35
-10
25
-8.1
-10
-15
15
-20
5 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
2011
Oct Nov -27.0
Dec
INDIA
(Bombay Sensex)
0
-10 -15 -20
-21.2 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
-20
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2011
-5
-25
Oct
-10
-2.6
-15
5
Sep
-5
-10
10
-20
5
PAKISTAN (Karachi)
0
-25
Aug
2011
-5
5
Jul
SOUTH KOREA
2011
5
10
Jun
-15
-30
-50
May
-10
-25
0
Apr
-5
-20
10
Mar
0
-15
-25
Feb
0
-5
10
Jan
2011
(Kuala Lumpur)
-10
15
-25
2011
0
-35
-17.8
-20
-30
10
(Straits Times)
10
-10
-35
SINGAPORE
Dec
25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35
-5
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
2011
RUSSIA (RTS)
-27.2 yardeni.com Jan
Feb
2011
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2011
Source: Haver Analytics.
Page 4 / October 3, 2011 / Global Markets Briefing
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
- Stock Markets: USA Figure 5. 15000 14100 13200 12300 11400 10500 9600 8700 7800 6900 6000 5100
DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
9/30
9/30
1998 1700
5600 5200 4800 4400 4000 3600 3200 2800 2400 2000 1600 1200 800
NASDAQ
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
S&P 500
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014 950
RUSSELL 2000
875
1500
800
1300
725 9/30
9/30
1100
650 575
900
500 425
700
350
500
275 1998
17000 16000 15000 14000 13000 12000 11000 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
WILSHIRE 5000
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014 375
S&P 500 TRANSPORTATION
350 325 300 9/30
275
9/30
250 225 200 175 150 125
1998 11000
2000
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014 250
S&P 500 UTILITIES
10000 200
9000 9/30
8000
150 7000
9/30
6000
100
5000 yardeni.com
4000 1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
50
2014
200-day moving average. Source: Reuters America, Inc and Standard and Poor’s Corporation.
Page 5 / October 3, 2011 / Global Markets Briefing
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
- Stock Markets: Americas Figure 6. 16000 14000
UNITED STATES
4100
ARGENTINA
(Dow Jones Industrials)
3700
(Merval)
3300 2900 9/30
12000
2500
9/30
2100
10000
1700 1300
8000
900 500
6000
100 1998
16000 14000
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
CANADA
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014 24500 22500 20500 18500 16500 14500 12500 10500 8500 6500 4500 2500
CHILE
(Toronto 300)
(IGPA General) 9/30
12000
9/30
10000 8000 6000 4000 1998 42000 38000 34000
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
MEXICO
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
VENEZUELA
(Bolsa)
2012
2014 105000 97000 89000 81000 73000 65000 57000 49000 41000 33000 25000 17000 9000 1000
9/30
(IBC)
9/30
30000 26000 22000 18000 14000 10000 6000 2000 1998 83000 75000 67000
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
BRAZIL
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
PERU
(Bovespa)
(Lima)
59000
9/30
9/30
51000 43000 35000 27000 19000 11000
yardeni.com
3000 1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
26800 24800 22800 20800 18800 16800 14800 12800 10800 8800 6800 4800 2800 800
2014
200-day moving average. Source: Reuters America, Inc.
Page 6 / October 3, 2011 / Global Markets Briefing
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
- Stock Markets: Europe Figure 7. 7000 6000
EUROPE
11000
IRELAND
(Dow Jones Stoxx 50 (euro-based))
10000
(ISEQ Overall)
9000 8000
5000
7000 4000
6000 5000
3000
4000 10/3
2000
9/30
1000
7500
2000 1000
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 8500
3000
FRANCE
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 50000
ITALY
(CAC 40)
(FTSE MIB)
45000 40000
6500
35000
5500
30000 4500
25000
3500
20000
10/3 2500
10/3
1500
10000 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
10000
15000
GERMANY
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 850
NETHERLANDS
(DAX)
(Amsterdam)
750
8000
650 550
6000 10/3
450 350
4000
10/3
2000
150 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
8000 7000
250
GREECE
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 2000
SPAIN
(Athens, SE)
(Madrid General Index)
6000 1500
5000 4000 3000
1000
2000
10/3
1000
10/3
0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
yardeni.com
500
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
200-day moving average. Source: Reuters America, Inc.
Page 7 / October 3, 2011 / Global Markets Briefing
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
- Stock Markets: Europe (cont) Figure 8. 500 450
500
SWEDEN
(AffarsvardnGen)
450
400
400
350
350
300
10/3
300
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100 1998
10500 9500
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012 10500
SWITZERLAND (SMI)
9500
8500
8500
7500
7500
6500
6500 10/3
5500 4500
4500
3500
3500 1998
8000 7500
5500
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012 8000
UNITED KINGDOM (FTSE 100)
7500
7000
7000
6500
6500
6000
6000
5500
5500 10/3
5000
5000
4500
4500
4000
4000
3500
3500 yardeni.com
3000 1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
3000
2012
200-day moving average. Source: Reuters America, Inc.
Page 8 / October 3, 2011 / Global Markets Briefing
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
- Stock Markets: Asia Figure 9. 7600 7000
AUSTRALIA
6000
CHINA
(All Ordinaries)
(Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 (12/31/2004=1000))
6400
5000
5800
4000
5200
3000
9/30
4600 10/3
4000
2000
3400
1000
2800 2200
0 1998
24000 21000
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
JAPAN
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014 34000
HONG KONG
(Nikkei)
(Hang Seng)
30000 26000
18000
22000 15000 18000
10/3
12000
14000
9000
10/3
10000
6000
6000 1998
2400 2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
SOUTH KOREA
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014 12000
TAIWAN
(Kospi)
(TWSE)
10000
9/30 8000 10/3 6000 4000 2000 1998
4300 4000 3700 3400 3100 2800 2500 2200 1900 1600 1300 1000 700
2000
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
SINGAPORE (Straits Times)
10/3
yardeni.com 1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
200-day moving average. Source: Reuters America, Inc.
Page 9 / October 3, 2011 / Global Markets Briefing
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
- Stock Markets: Asia Figure 10. 4600 4200
INDONESIA
5000
THE PHILIPPINES
(Jakarta)
(Manila)
4500
3800 3400
4000
10/3
10/3
3500
3000 2600
3000
2200
2500
1800
2000
1400 1500
1000
1000
600 200
500 1998
1800 1600
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
MALAYSIA
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014 22000
INDIA
(Kuala Lumpur)
(Bombay Sensex)
20000 18000
1400
10/3
10/3
16000 14000
1200
12000 1000 10000 800
8000 6000
600
4000 400
2000
200
0 1998
1300
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
THAILAND
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014 18000
PAKISTAN
(Bangkok)
(Karachi)
16000
1100 14000 900
12000
10/3
10/3
10000 700 8000 500
6000 4000
300 2000 yardeni.com
100 1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
0
2014
200-day moving average. Source: Reuters America, Inc.
Page 10 / October 3, 2011 / Global Markets Briefing
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
- Stock Markets: Russia, Eastern Europe, Middle East Figure 11. 3000
RUSSIA
600
SLOVAKIA
(RTS)
(SAX)
500
2000
400 300
10/3
10/3
1000
200 100
0
0 1998
4500 4000
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
POLAND
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200
ISRAEL
(WIG20)
(Tel Aviv 100)
3500 10/3
3000 2500 10/3
2000 1500 1000 500 1998 35000 30000
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
HUNGARY
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014 80000
TURKEY
(BUX)
(IMKB National 100)
70000 10/3
25000
60000 50000
20000
40000
10/3
15000
30000
10000
20000
5000
10000
0
0 1998
2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
CZECH REPUBLIC
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014 15000
EGYPT
(PX50)
(Cairo Case 30) 10000
10/3 5000
10/3
yardeni.com 1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
0
2014
200-day moving average. Source: Financial Times and Haver Analytics.
Page 11 / October 3, 2011 / Global Markets Briefing
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
- Stock Markets: Africa Figure 12. 80000
NIGERIA
40000
SOUTH AFRICA
(SE All Share)
(FTSE/JSE All Share)
35000
60000
10/3
30000 25000
40000 20000 15000
9/30
20000
10000 yardeni.com
yardeni.com
0 1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
5000
2014
200-day moving average. Source: Financial Times and Haver Analytics.
Page 12 / October 3, 2011 / Global Markets Briefing
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
- Dow Theory Figure 13. 15000
6000
DOW JONES STOCK AVERAGES
14000
5500
Industrials (DJIA) 13000
5000
Transportation (DJTA)
12000
4500 11000
9/30 4000
10000 3500 9000 3000 8000 2500
7000
2000
6000 yardeni.com
5000 1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
1500
2012
Source: The Wall Street Journal.
Figure 14. 2000
400
S&P STOCK INDEXES
1900
Industrials Composite
1800 1700
350
Transportation Composite
1600
300 9/30
1500 1400
250
1300 1200
200
1100 1000
150
900 yardeni.com
800 1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
100
2012
Source: Standard & Poors.
Page 13 / October 3, 2011 / Global Markets Briefing
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
- Technology Heavy Stock Markets Figure 15. 5600
5600
NASDAQ
4800
4800
200-day moving average
4000
4000
3200
3200 9/30
2400 1600
1600
800
800 1998
12000 10000
2400
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012 12000
TAIWAN (TWSE)
10000
8000
8000 10/3
6000
6000
4000
4000
2000
2000 1998
4300 4000 3700 3400 3100 2800 2500 2200 1900 1600 1300 1000 700
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
SINGAPORE (Straits Times)
10/3
1998 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200
1999
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
ISRAEL
(Tel Aviv 100) 10/3
yardeni.com 1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
4300 4000 3700 3400 3100 2800 2500 2200 1900 1600 1300 1000 700 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200
2012
Source: Haver Analytics.
Page 14 / October 3, 2011 / Global Markets Briefing
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
- Commodity Heavy Stock Markets Figure 16. 7400 7000 6600 6200 5800 5400 5000 4600 4200 3800 3400 3000 2600 2200
AUSTRALIA
(All Ordinaries)
200-day moving average 10/3
1998 16000 14000
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
7400 7000 6600 6200 5800 5400 5000 4600 4200 3800 3400 3000 2600 2200
2012 16000
CANADA
(Toronto 300)
14000
12000
9/30
12000
10000
10000
8000
8000
6000
6000
4000
4000 1998
4600 4200 3800 3400 3000 2600 2200 1800 1400 1000 600 200
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
INDONESIA (Jakarta)
10/3
1998 40000
1999
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
4600 4200 3800 3400 3000 2600 2200 1800 1400 1000 600 200
2012 40000
SOUTH AFRICA
(FTSE/JSE All Share) 10/3
30000
30000
20000
20000
10000
10000 yardeni.com
0 1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
0
2012
Source: Haver Analytics.
Page 15 / October 3, 2011 / Global Markets Briefing
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
- Capital Goods Heavy Stock Markets Figure 17. 400
400
S&P 500 INDUSTRIALS
350
350
200-day moving average
300
300 9/30
250
250
200
200
150
150 yardeni.com
100 1998 9000 8000
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
100
2012 9000
GERMANY (DAX)
8000
7000
7000
6000
6000 10/3
5000
5000
4000
4000
3000
3000
2000
2000 1998
2400 2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200
450
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
SOUTH KOREA (Kospi)
9/30
1998 500
1999
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2400 2200 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200
2012 500
SWEDEN
(AffarsvardnGen)
450
400
400
350
350
300
10/3
300
250
250
200
200
150
150 yardeni.com
100 1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
100
2012
Source: Haver Analytics.
Page 16 / October 3, 2011 / Global Markets Briefing
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
- US$ Forex Rates: Europe Figure 18. 1.7 1.6
1.7
EUROPE
1.6
($/Euro)
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.4 10/3
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
200-day moving average
.9
.9
.8
.8 1999
2.3 2.1
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012 2.3
UNITED KINGDOM ($/Pound)
2.1
1.9
1.9
1.7
1.7 10/3
1.5 1.3
1.3 1999
4.5 5.5
1.5
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012 4.5
SWEDEN (Krona/$)
5.5
6.5
6.5
9/30
7.5
7.5
8.5
8.5
9.5
9.5
10.5
10.5
11.5
11.5 1999
.4 .6
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012 .4
SWITZERLAND (Swiss Franc/$)
.6
.8
10/3
1.0
.8 1.0
1.2
1.2
1.4
1.4
1.6
1.6
1.8
1.8 yardeni.com
2.0 1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2.0
2012
Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International.
Page 17 / October 3, 2011 / Global Markets Briefing
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
- Trade-Weighted Dollar Figure 19. 120
120
BROAD TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR INDEX*
115
115
200-day moving average 110
110
105
105
9/23
100
100
95
90
95
yardeni.com 2005
90 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
* Broad index is a weighted average of the foreign exchange rates of the US dollar against the Euro Area, Canada, Japan, Mexico, China, UK, Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Brazil, Switzerland, Thailand, Philippines, Australia, Indonesia, India, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Sweden, Argentina, Venezuela, Chile, and Columbia. Source: Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Figure 20. 90
90
MAJOR TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR INDEX*
85
85
80
80
75
75 9/23
70
70
200-day moving average yardeni.com
65 2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
65
2012
* Major index countries whose currencies are included are the Euro Area, Canada, Japan, United Kingdom, Switzerland, Australia, and Sweden. The Euro Area includes Germany, France, Italy, Netherlands, Belgium/Luxembourg, Ireland, Spain, Austria, Finland, Portugal & Greece. Source: Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Page 18 / October 3, 2011 / Global Markets Briefing
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
- US$ Forex Rates: Asia Figure 21. 60 80
JAPAN
6.0
CHINA
(Yen/$)
(Yuan/$)
9/30
9/30
6.4 6.8
100 7.2 120 7.6 140
8.0
200-day moving average
8.4
160 1998 .8 1.0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
AUSTRALIA __________
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014 2
MALAYSIA
(inverted scale, A$/US$)
(Ringgit/$)
10/3
1.2
3
10/3
1.4 4 1.6 1.8
5
2.0 2.2
6 1998
800 1000
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
SOUTH KOREA
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014 0
INDONESIA
(Won/$)
2000
(Rupiah/$)
4000 10/3
1200
6000 8000
9/30
1400
10000
1600
12000 14000
1800
16000
2000
18000 1998
1.1 1.2
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
SINGAPORE
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014 25
THAILAND
(S$/US$)
(Baht/$)
30
9/30
10/3
1.3
35
1.4
40
1.5 45
1.6
50
1.7
55
1.8 yardeni.com
1.9 1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
60
2014
____
200-day moving average. Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International.
Page 19 / October 3, 2011 / Global Markets Briefing
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
- US$ Forex Rates: Americas Figure 22. .8 .9
CANADA
6
MEXICO
(C$/US$)
7
(Peso/$)
1.0
8
9/30
9
1.1
10
1.2
11
1.3
12
1.4
13 9/30
1.5
14
1.6
15
1.7
16 1998
.1 .6
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
BRAZIL
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014 4.5
ARGENTINA
(Real/$)
(Peso/$)
9/30
1.1
4.0
1.6
9/30
2.1
3.5
2.6 3.1
3.0
3.6 4.1 4.6
2.5 1998
300 350 400
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
CHILE
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014 5
VENEZUELA
(Peso/$)
(Bolivar/$)
10/3
4
450 500
3
9/30
550
2
600 650
1
700 750
0
800 1998 400 800
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
COLOMBIA
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014 2.2
PERU
(Peso/$)
(New Sol/$)
2.4 2.6
1200 9/30
2.8
1600
3.0
9/30
2000
3.2
2400
3.4
2800
3.6 yardeni.com
3200 1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
3.8
2014
200-day moving average Source: Morgan Stanley Capital International.
Page 20 / October 3, 2011 / Global Markets Briefing
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
- 10-Year Government Yields Figure 23. 7.5 7.0
UNITED STATES
6.0
GERMANY
5.5
6.5 5.0
6.0 5.5
4.5
5.0
4.0
4.5 3.5
4.0 3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5 2.0
2.0
9/30
9/30
1.5
1.5 1998
7.5
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
CANADA
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014 5.5
SWEDEN
5.0 6.5 4.5 5.5 4.0 4.5
3.5 3.0
3.5 2.5 2.5 2.0
9/30
9/30
1.5
1.5 1998
7.5
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
UNITED KINGDOM
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014 3.0
JAPAN
7.0 2.5
6.5 6.0
2.0
5.5 5.0
1.5 4.5 4.0
9/30
1.0
3.5 3.0
.5 9/29
2.5
yardeni.com
2.0 1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
.0
2014
200 day moving average. Source: MMS International and Haver Analytics.
Page 21 / October 3, 2011 / Global Markets Briefing
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
- Commodity Prices Figure 24. 500 475 450 425 400 375 350 325 300 275 250 225 200 175
CRB FUTURES PRICE INDEX (1967=100)
1050 950
(dollar per gallon)
9/30
200-day ma
1998 1150
4.6 4.2 3.8 3.4 3.0 2.6 2.2 1.8 1.4 1.0 .6 .2
HEATING OIL FUTURES PRICE*
2000
2002
9/30
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
CRB SPOT PRICE INDEXES
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014 17
NATURAL GAS FUTURES PRICE*
(1967=100)
(dollar per MMBTU)
15
850
Raw Industrials
13
750
Metals
11 9
650 9/30
550
7
450
5
350
9/30
3
250
1
150 1998 170 150
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
LIGHT CRUDE OIL FUTURES PRICE* (dollars per barrel)
130 110 90
9/30
70 50 30 10 1998 4.5 3.9
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
GASOLINE FUTURES PRICE* (dollars per gallon)
3.3 2.7
9/30
2.1 1.5 yardeni.com
.9 1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
* Nearby contract. Source: Haver Analytics
Page 22 / October 3, 2011 / Global Markets Briefing
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
- Commodity Prices (cont) Figure 25. 1300 1100
CRB SPOT PRICE INDEX: METALS (daily, 1967=100)
200-day ma
900
5000
STAINLESS STEEL SCRAP (dollars per gr. ton)
4000
9/30
3000
700 500
9/30
Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin and zinc
2000 1000
300 100
0 1998
500
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
COPPER FUTURES PRICE*
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014 2500
TIN
(dollars per pound)
(cents per pound)
2000
400 9/30
300
1500
9/27
1000 200
500
100
0 1998
250 200
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
LEAD, RN NA SOLDER
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014 230
ZINC
(cents per pound)
210
(cents per pound)
190 170
150
150 130
9/27 100
110 9/30
90
50
70 50
yardeni.com
0 1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
30 1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
* Nearby contract. Source: Haver Analytics.
Page 23 / October 3, 2011 / Global Markets Briefing
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
- Commodity Prices (cont) Figure 26. 1975 1800 1625
GOLD FUTURES PRICE*
1750
SOYBEANS FUTURES PRICE*
(dollars per troy ounce)
(cents per bushel)
9/30
1550 1350
1450 9/30
1275 1100
1150
200-day ma
925
950
750
750
575
550
400 225
350 1998
52 48 44 40 36 32 28 24 20 16 12 8 4
2200
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
SILVER FUTURES PRICE*
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014 800 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150
CORN FUTURES PRICE*
(dollars per troy ounce)
(cents per bushel)
9/30 9/30
1998 2400
2000
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
PLATINUM FUTURES PRICE*
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200
WHEAT FUTURES PRICE*
(dollars per troy ounce)
(cents per bushel)
2000 1800 1600
9/30
1400 9/30
1200 1000 800 600 1998 1500
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
PALLADIUM SPOT PRICE
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014 2.5
COTTON FUTURES PRICE*
($/troy oz)
($/pound)
2.0
1000 1.5 9/27
9/30
1.0
500 .5 yardeni.com
0 1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
yardeni.com 1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
.0
2014
*Nearby contract. Source: Haver Analytics.
Page 24 / October 3, 2011 / Global Markets Briefing
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
- Commodities YTD 15
15
CRB FUTURES PRICE INDEX (1967=100)
10
10
15
CRB SPOT PRICE INDEX: METALS (daily, 1967=100)
(1967=100)
5
5
CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEXES
10 5
0 0 -5 -10
0
-5 -10 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
-10.4 Oct
Nov
Dec
-15
-14.4 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
2011
10 5
-5
Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin and zinc
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
30
COPPER FUTURES PRICE* (dollar per pound)
40
CORN FUTURES PRICE*
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Nov
Dec
Nov
Dec
Nov
Dec
Nov
Dec
HEATING OIL FUTURES PRICE*
20 10
-15
10
-20 0
-25
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
-5.8 Nov
Dec
-10
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
2011
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
35
(dollar per MMBTU)
30
15
GOLD FUTURES PRICE* (dollars per troy ounce)
10
14.0
May
Jun
-16.8 Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
0
-15
-5
-20
-10
-25
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
2011
10
(dollars per barrel)
5
20
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Sep
Oct
(cents per pound)
-18.5 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
2011
80
PLATINUM FUTURES PRICE* (dollars per troy ounce)
SILVER FUTURES PRICE* (dollars per troy ounce)
60
0
10
Aug
CASH PRICE: LEAD, RN NA SOLDER
2011
LIGHT CRUDE OIL FUTURES PRICE*
Jul
-10
5 -10
Jun
Apr
-5
10
May
Mar
0
15
0
Apr
Feb
5
20
Mar
Jan
2011
25
10
Feb
-10
2011
NATURAL GAS FUTURES PRICE*
Jan
9.9
0
-29.2
-30
30
Mar
(dollar per gallon)
-5
-20
Feb
30
20
-10
20
-8.2 Jan
2011
(cents per bushel)
0
-35
-10
2011
40
-5 0 -10 -20
20
-10
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
-20
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
2011
10 5
25
SOYBEANS FUTURES PRICE* (cents per bushel)
20
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
30
STEEL SCRAP
(dollars per gr. ton)
20
-10
Apr
May
Jun
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
-5
10 5
10
Sep
Oct
CASH PRICE: TIN RN NA SOLDER (cents per pound)
-21.9
-30 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2011
(cents per bushel)
Aug
-20
2011
WHEAT FUTURES PRICE*
Jul
0
0
-15.4 Mar
Feb
-10
5
-15 Feb
Jan
10 12.0
10
Jan
-2.8
2011
15
-5
20
Jul
-20
2011
0
-20
0
-14.3
-15
-13.3
-40
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
2011
CASH PRICE: ZINC (cents per pound)
0 0
-5
-10
-10 -15
-20 -30
-20
-23.3 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
-25
-20.2 yardeni.com Jan
Feb
2011
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2011
* Nearby contract. Source: Haver Analytics.
Page 25 / October 3, 2011 / Global Markets Briefing
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
- Stock Market vs. Crude Oil & Copper Prices Figure 28. 40
4.8
CHINA STOCK MARKET vs. COPPER FUTURES PRICE
4.6 4.4 4.2
35
4.0 3.8 3.6 30
3.4 3.2 3.0 9/30
25
2.8 2.6
China: Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 (12/31/2004=1000)
2.4 2.2
20
2.0
Copper Futures Price* (dollars per pound)
1.8 1.6 yardeni.com
15 I
II
III
IV
I
II
2009 * Nearby contract. Source: Haver Analytics.
III
IV
I
II
2010
III
1.4
IV
2011
Figure 29. 1400
120
S&P 500 INDEX vs. CRUDE OIL PRICE
1350 110
1300 1250
100
1200 1150
9/30
90
1100 80
1050 1000
70
S&P 500 Index
950 900
60
Light Crude Oil Price (dollars per pound)
850
50
800 750
40
700 650
yardeni.com I
30 II
III
IV
I
2009 Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Haver Analytics.
Page 26 / October 3, 2011 / Global Markets Briefing
II
III 2010
IV
I
II
III
IV
2011
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
- Trade Weighted Dollar Figure 30. 66
130
DOLLAR INDEX vs. CRUDE OIL PRICE
68
120
70
110 9/30
72
100
74 90 76 80 78 70 80 60
Brent Crude Oil Futures Price* (dollars per barrel)
82
50
84
Major Trade-Weighted Dollar Index (inverted scale)
86
40 yardeni.com
88 I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
2009 2010 * Nearby contact. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Haver Analytics.
III
30
IV
2011
Figure 31. 66
1450
DOLLAR INDEX vs. S&P 500 INDEX
68 1350 70 72
1250
74 9/30
76 78
1150
1050
80 950 82
S&P 500 Index
84
Major Trade-Weighted Dollar Index (inverted scale)
86
850
750 88 yardeni.com
90 I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
2009 2010 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and Haver Analytics.
Page 27 / October 3, 2011 / Global Markets Briefing
IV
I
II
III
650
IV
2011
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
- S&P 500 Figure 32. 1600
1600
S&P 500 vs. S&P RETAILING
1400
1400
1200
1200 9/30
1000
1000
800
800
S&P 500 Index 600
600
S&P 500 Retailing 9/30
400
400
200
200 yardeni.com
0 90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
0
14
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
Figure 33. 1600
1600
S&P 500 INDEX vs. S&P 500 BANKS
1400
1400
1200
1200 9/30
1000
1000
800
800
S&P 500 Index 600
600
S&P 500 Banks
400
400
200
200 9/30 yardeni.com
0 90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
0
14
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
Page 28 / October 3, 2011 / Global Markets Briefing
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
- S&P 1500/500/400/600 YTD 10
Figure 34. S&P 1500
10
5
All Sectors
5
0
0 -5
-5 -10
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Staples
Energy
Financials
Health Care
-10.5
-15 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 40
-7.7
5 -5 -13.9
-25 15
-5
-6.8
-25 15
5
5
-5
-5 -11.1
-15
-15
30
30
20
20
20
20
10
10
10
10
1.8
0 -10 35 25 15 5 -5 -15 -25 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 30
-13.3
1.0
0 -10 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 10
-12.6
0 -10 -20 -24.8
-25.9
-30
30
26.8
0
0
-10 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 10
-10 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 10
-23.0
0
0
-10
-10 -19.0
-20
-30 30
20
20
20
20
10
10
10
-10 15
-4.8
-10
5
5
5
-5
-5
-5
-5
-7.9
-15 15
-16.1
-25 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 15
-15
-15
-19.7
-25 15
-6.5
5
5
-5
-5
-15
-15
-18.3
-25 15
5
5
5
-5
-5
-5
-15 -22.1
-5.7
-5.2
0
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 2011
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
-15 -35 15
-25 15
10
10
7.2
-10
-15
-25.0
5
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 2011
Page 29 / October 3, 2011 / Global Markets Briefing
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
-10
3.6
0
-5 Jan
-21.5
5
2.1
0
-5 Jan
-5
-25
0
-5
5
-5
-25 15 5
-20.7
-25 15
-15
10 6.4
5
-15
-17.0
-25 15 5
5 -5
10
-10
-15 -23.0
-25 15
-19.9
-25 15
5
-25 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 15
-20.3
-25 15
-5 -15
-1.4
-10 15
5
-15
-16.3
0
-20 15
-5 -16.7
-19.2
10
0 .8
.0
-20
-30 30
0
-15.6
-25 40
-40 30
.3
-14.5
-15
30
5
Utilities
5 -5 -15
S&P 600 SmallCap
15
-25 40
-25 15
Telecom Services
S&P 400 MidCap
15
-15 40
-15
Materials
-10.0
5
-10 15
Information Technology
-10 -15 15
0
Industrials
S&P 500 LargeCap
15
-5 Jan
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 2011
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
-10
yardeni.com Jan
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 2011
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
- S&P 500: Consumer Discretionary Figure 35. 370
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
1600
S&P 500 HOMEBUILDING
330
1400
(DHI LEN PHM)
1200
290
9/30
1000
250
800 210
600
170
400
130
9/30
200
90
0 1998
400 350 300
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
S&P 500 APPAREL, ACCESSORIES, LUXURY GOODS
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014 325 300 275 250 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25
S&P 500 HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES (SNA SWK WHR)
(COH RL VFC) 9/30
250 9/30
200 150 100 50 1998 750 650
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
S&P 500 FOOTWEAR
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014 200
S&P 500 HOUSEWARES & SPECIALTIES 9/30
(NKE)
(FO NWL)
175
550
150
450
125
350
100
9/30
250
75
150
50
50
25 1998
175 150
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
S&P 500 HOME FURNISHINGS
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014 225
S&P 500 DISTRIBUTORS
(LEG)
(GPC)
200
125
175
9/30
100
150 9/30
75
125
50
100 yardeni.com
25 1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
75
2014
200-day moving average. Source: Standard and Poor’s Corporation.
Page 30 / October 3, 2011 / Global Markets Briefing
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
- S&P 500: Consumer Discretionary (cont) Figure 36. 200 180
S&P 500 AUTO PARTS & EQUIPMENT
450
S&P 500 ADVERTISING
(JCI)
400
(IPG OMC)
160
350
140
300
120
250
9/30
100
200
80
150
9/30
60
100
40 20
50 1998
250 225 200
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
S&P 500 TIRES & RUBBER
S&P 500 BROADCASTING
(GT)
(CBS)
2008
2010
2012
2014 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
175 150 125
9/30
100 75 50
9/30
25 0 1998 350 300
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
S&P 500 AUTOMOBILE MANUFACTURERS
S&P 500 MOVIES & ENTERTAINMENT
(F)
(DIS NWS.A TWX VIA.B)
2014 250
200
250 200
150
9/30
150 100
100 9/30
50 0
50 1998
250 225 200
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
S&P 500 MOTORCYCLE MANUFACTURERS
S&P 500 PUBLISHING
(HOG)
(GCI WPO)
2008
2010
2012
2014 400 350
175
300
150
250
125 200
9/30
100 75
150
9/30
50
100
25
yardeni.com
0 1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
50
2014
200-day moving average. Source: Standard and Poor’s Corporation.
Page 31 / October 3, 2011 / Global Markets Briefing
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
- S&P 500: Consumer Discretionary (cont) Figure 37. 250 225
S&P 500 LEISURE PRODUCTS
S&P 500 RESTAURANTS
(HAS MAT)
(DRI MCD SBUX YUM)
750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100
9/30
200 175 9/30
150 125 100 75 50 1998 300 250
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
S&P 500 HOTELS, RESORTS & CRUISE LINES
S&P 500 CASINOS & GAMING
(CCL HOT MAR WYN)
(IGT WYNN)
2010
2012
2014 1950 1750 1550 1350
200
1150 9/30
950
9/30
150
750 550
100
350 yardeni.com
50 1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
150 1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
200-day moving average. Source: Standard and Poor’s Corporation.
Page 32 / October 3, 2011 / Global Markets Briefing
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
- S&P 500: Consumer Discretionary: Retailers Figure 38. 800 700 600
S&P 500 RETAILING
S&P 500 GENERAL MERCHANDISE
(AMZN AN ANF AZO BBBY BBY BIG EXPE FDO GME GPC GPS HD JCP JWN KSS LOW LTD M ODP ORLY PCLN ROST RSH SHLD SHW SPLS TGT TIF TJX URBN)
(BIG FDO TGT)
850 750 650
9/30
9/30
500
950
550 400
450
300
350
200
250
100
150 1998
800
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
S&P 500 APPAREL RETAIL
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150
S&P 500 HOME IMPROVEMENT RETAIL
(ANF GPS LTD ROST TJX)
(HD LOW SHW) 9/30
600
400 9/30 200
0 1998 500 450
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
S&P 500 COMPUTER & ELECTRONICS RETAIL
S&P 500 INTERNET RETAIL
(BBY GME)
(AMZN EXPE NFLX PCLN)
2010
2012
2014 1100 1000
9/30
400
900 800
350
700
300
600
250
500
200
400
150
9/30
300
100
200
50
100 1998
350 300
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014 200
200-day moving average.
S&P 500 DEPARTMENT STORES
S&P 500 SPECIALTY STORES Source: Standard and Poor’s Corporation.
(JCP JWN KSS SHLD)
(SPLS TIF)
175
250
150
200
125 9/30
150
100 9/30
100
75
50
50 yardeni.com
0 1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Page 33 / October 3, 2011 / Global Markets Briefing
2014
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
25
2014
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
- S&P 500: Consumer Staples Figure 39. 350 325
S&P 500 CONSUMER STAPLES
700
S&P 500 DRUG RETAIL
300
650
(CVS WAG)
9/30
600 550
275
500
9/30
250
450
225
400
200
350
175
300
150
250
125
200 1998
1000 900
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
S&P 500 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS
S&P 500 FOOD DISTRIBUTORS
(ADM)
(SYY)
2010
2012
2014 550 500
800
450
700
400
600
350
500
9/30
9/30
400
300
300
250
200
200
100
150 1998
700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150
225
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
S&P 500 BREWERS
S&P 500 FOOD RETAIL
(BUD TAP)
(KR SVU SWY WFMI)
2008
2010
2012
2014 350 300 250
9/30 200 150 9/30
100 50
1998 250
2000
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
S&P 500 DISTILLERS & VINTNERS
S&P 500 HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTS
(BF.B STZ)
(CL CLX KMB PG)
200
2012
2014 500 450 400
9/30
9/30
175
350
150
300
125
250
100
200 yardeni.com
75 1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
150
2014
200-day moving average. Source: Standard and Poor’s Corporation.
Page 34 / October 3, 2011 / Global Markets Briefing
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
- S&P 500: Consumer Staples (cont) Figure 40. 130 120
S&P 500 HYPERMARKETS & SUPER CENTERS
S&P 500 SOFT DRINKS
(COST WMT)
(CCE DPS KO PBG PEP)
110
380 340 300
9/30
9/30
100
260
90
220
80
180
70
140 1998
350 300
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1998
2000
2002
2004
S&P 500 PACKAGED FOODS & MEATS
S&P 500 TOBACCO
(CAG CPB DF GIS HNZ HRL HSY K KFT MKC SJM SLE TSN)
(LO MO PM RAI)
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014 700 620
9/30
9/30
540 460
250
380 200
300 220
150
140 60
100 1998 500 460
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
S&P 500 PERSONAL PRODUCTS (AVP EL MJN)
420 380
9/30
340 300 260 220 180 yardeni.com
140 1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
200-day moving average. Source: Standard and Poor’s Corporation.
Page 35 / October 3, 2011 / Global Markets Briefing
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
- S&P 500: Energy Figure 41. 700 650
S&P 500 ENERGY
S&P 500 OIL & GAS EQUIPMENT & SERVICES (BHI BJS CAM DO FTI HAL NOV SLB)
600 550 500 450
9/30
400 9/30
350 300 250 200 150 100 1998 650 600
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
S&P 500 INTEGRATED OIL & GAS
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014 950
S&P 500 OIL & GAS EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION
(COP CVX HES MRO MUR OXY XOM)
850
(APA APC CHK COG DNR DVN EOG NBL NFX PXD QEP RRC SWN XTO)
550
900 850 800 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100
500
750 650
9/30
450
550
400 450
9/30
350
350
300 250
250
200
150
150
50 1998
1100 1000
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
S&P 500 OIL & GAS DRILLING
S&P 500 OIL & GAS REFINING & MARKETING
(HP NBR RDC)
(MPC SUN TSO VLO)
750 700 650
900
600
800
550 500
700
450
600
400 350
500
300 400
9/30
250
300
200
9/30
150
200 yardeni.com
100 1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
100 50
2014
200-day moving average. Source: Standard and Poor’s Corporation.
Page 36 / October 3, 2011 / Global Markets Briefing
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
- S&P 500: Financials Figure 42. 550 500
S&P 500 FINANCIALS
450
S&P 500 INSURANCE BROKERS (AOC MMC)
450
400
400
350
350
300
300 250
250 9/30
200
200
9/30
150
150
100 50
100 1998
260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40
790
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
S&P 500 ASSET MANAGEMENT & CUSTODY BANKS
S&P 500 INVESTMENT BANKING & BROKERAGE
(AMP BEN BK FII IVZ JNS LM NTRS STT TROW)
(ETFC GS MS SCHW)
2012
2014 275 225 175 125
9/30 75 9/30 25 1998
890
2000
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
S&P 500 CONSUMER FINANCE
S&P 500 LIFE & HEALTH INSURANCE
(AXP COF DFS SLM)
(AFL LNC MET PFG PRU TMK UNM)
2014 450 400
690
350
590
300
490
250 9/30
390
200
9/30
290
150
190
100
90
50
-10
0 1998
500 450
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
S&P 500 DIVERSIFIED BANKS
S&P 500 MULTI-LINE INSURANCE
(CMA USB WFC)
(AIG AIZ GNW HIG L)
2012
2014 800 700
400
600
350
500
300
400
250
300
9/30
200
200
150 100 50 1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1998
2000
100
9/30
yardeni.com
0 2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
200-day moving average. Source: Standard and Poor’s Corporation.
Page 37 / October 3, 2011 / Global Markets Briefing
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
- S&P 500: Financials (cont) Figure 43. 200 180 160
S&P 500 OTHER DIVERSIFIED FINANCIAL SERVICES
180
S&P 500 REGIONAL BANKS (BBT FHN FITB HBAN KEY MTB PNC RF STI ZION)
(BAC C JPM)
150
140
120
120 100
90
80 60
60 40
9/30
9/30
20
30
0
0 1998
400 350
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
S&P 500 PROPERTY & CASUALTY INSURANCE
S&P 500 SPECIALIZED FINANCE
(ACE ALL CB CINF PGR TRV XL)
(CME ICE MCO NDAQ NYX)
2010
2012
2014 310 280 250
300
220 190
250
160
200
130
9/30
100
9/30
150
70
100
40 1998
250 230 210 190 170 150 130 110 90 70 50 30
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
S&P 500 REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUSTS
S&P 500 THRIFTS & MORTGAGE FINANCE
(AIV BXP CBG EQR HCN HCP HST KIM PCL PLD PSA SPG VNO VTR)
(HCBK PBCT)
2014 175 150 125 100 75
9/30
50 25 yardeni.com 1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
9/30 2012
0 2014
200-day moving average. Source: Standard and Poor’s Corporation.
Page 38 / October 3, 2011 / Global Markets Briefing
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
- S&P 500: Health Care Figure 44. 500
S&P 500 HEALTH CARE
700
S&P 500 HEALTH CARE EQUIPMENT (BAX BCR BDX BSX CFNwi HSP ISRG MDT STJ SYK VAR ZMH)
650 600 550
400
500
9/30
9/30 450 400
300
350 300 250
200
200 1998
1400
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
S&P 500 BIOTECHNOLOGY
S&P 500 HEALTH CARE FACILITIES
(AMGN BIIB CELG CEPH GENZ GILD)
(THC)
2012
2014 250
1200 200 9/30
1000
150
800 9/30 600
100
400 50 200 0
0 1998
400
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
S&P 500 HEALTH CARE DISTRIBUTORS
S&P 500 HEALTH CARE SERVICES
(ABC CAH MCK PDCO)
(DGX DVA ESRX LH MHS)
2012
2014 560 520
350
480 440 9/30
300
400 360
9/30 250
320 280
200
240 200
150
160 120 yardeni.com
100 1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
80
2014
200-day moving average. Source: Standard and Poor’s Corporation.
Page 39 / October 3, 2011 / Global Markets Briefing
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
- S&P 500: Health Care (cont) Figure 45. 650 600
S&P 500 MANAGED HEALTH CARE
S&P 500 HEALTH CARE TECHNOLOGY
(AET CI CVH HUM UNH WLP)
(CERN)
190 170
550
9/30
500
150
450
9/30
130
400 350
110
300 90 250 200
70
150 50 100 50
30 1998
600 550
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
S&P 500 PHARMACEUTICALS
S&P 500 LIFE SCIENCES TOOLS & SERVICES
(ABT AGN BMY FRX JNJ LLY MRK MYL PFE WPI)
(LIFE MIL PKI TMO WAT)
500 450 9/30
400 350 9/30
300 250
yardeni.com
200 1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
214 206 198 190 182 174 166 158 150 142 134 126 118 110 102 94 86 78 70
2014
200-day moving average. Source: Standard and Poor’s Corporation.
Page 40 / October 3, 2011 / Global Markets Briefing
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
- S&P 500: Industrials Figure 46. 400
S&P 500 INDUSTRIALS
520 480 440 400 360 320 280 240 200 160 120 80 40
S&P 500 CONSTRUCTION & ENGINEERING (FLR JEC PWR)
350 300 9/30
250 200
9/30
150 100 1998 550 500
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
S&P 500 AEROSPACE & DEFENSE
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014 1000
S&P 500 CONSTRUCTION & FARM MACHINERY & HEAVY TRUCKS
(BA COL GD GR HON LLL LMT NOC PCP RTN UTX)
900 800
(CAT CMI DE PCAR)
450
700
400
600
350
9/30
9/30
500
300
400
250
300
200
200
150
100 1998
300 250
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
S&P 500 BUILDING PRODUCTS
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
S&P 500 ELECTRICAL COMPONENTS & EQUIPMENT
(MAS)
(EMR FSLR ROK ROP) 200 150
9/30
100 9/30 50 yardeni.com
0 1998 200
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100
2014
S&P 500 COMMERCIAL PRINTING (RRD)
150
100
9/30
50
0 1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
200-day moving average. Source: Standard and Poor’s Corporation.
Page 41 / October 3, 2011 / Global Markets Briefing
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
- S&P 500: Industrials (cont) Figure 47. 200 175
S&P 500 ENVIRONMENTAL & FACILITIES SERVICES
600
S&P 500 INDUSTRIAL MACHINERY (DHR DOV ETN FLS IR ITT ITW PH PLL)
550
(RSG SRCL WMI) 500
150 450 125
400 9/30
9/30
100
350 300
75 250 50
200
25
150 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
200
S&P 500 HUMAN RESOURCE & EMPLOYMENT SERVICES
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
S&P 500 OFFICE SERVICES & SUPPLIES (AVY PBI)
450 400
(MWW RHI) 150
350 300
100
250 200 9/30
50
150 9/30
0
50 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
700
100
S&P 500 INDUSTRIAL CONGLOMERATES (GE MMM TYC TXT)
600
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 350
S&P 500 TRADING COMPANIES & DISTRIBUTORS (FAST GWW)
9/30
300
500 250 400 200 300 150 200
9/30 100
100 yardeni.com
0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
50
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
200-day moving average. Source: Standard and Poor’s Corporation.
Page 42 / October 3, 2011 / Global Markets Briefing
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
- S&P 500: Industrials (cont) Figure 48. 450
S&P 500 TRANSPORTATION INDEX
450
S&P 500 AIRLINES (LUV)
400
400
350 350 300 300
250
9/30
200
250
150 200 100 9/30
150
50
100
0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
550 500
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
S&P 500 AIR FREIGHT & LOGISTICS
S&P 500 RAILROADS
(CHRW EXPD FDX UPS)
(BNI CSX NSC UNP)
800 700
450 9/30
400
600 500
350
9/30 400
300 300
250
200
200 yardeni.com
150 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
100
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
200-day moving average. Source: Standard and Poor’s Corporation.
Page 43 / October 3, 2011 / Global Markets Briefing
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
- S&P 500: Information Technology Figure 49. 1150 1050
S&P 500 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
950
2900
S&P 500 COMPUTER STORAGE & PERIPHERALS
2500
(EMC LXK NTAP QLGC WDC)
850
2100
750
1700
650 1300
550 450
900
9/30
350
9/30
250
100
150 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 190 170
500
S&P 500 APPLICATION SOFTWARE
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 300
S&P 500 DATA PROCESSING & OUTSOURCED SERVICES
(ADBE ADSK CPWR CRM CTXS INTU)
150
(ACS ADP CSC EDS FIS FISV PAYX TSSWI V WU)
250
130 110
9/30
90
200
70 150
50 9/30
30 10
100 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
1200 1000
S&P 500 COMMUNICATIONS EQUIPMENT (CSCO FFIV GLW HRS JDSU JNPR MMI MOT QCOM TLAB)
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 700
S&P 500 ELECTRONIC EQUIPMENT MANUFACTURERS
600
(A)
500
800
400 600 300 400
200 9/30
200 9/30 0
0 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
1000 900
100
S&P 500 COMPUTER HARDWARE
S&P 500 ELECTRONIC MANUFACTURING SERVICES
(AAPL DELL HPQ IBM JAVA TDC)
800
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
9/30
300 250
(JBL MOLX) 200
700 600
150
500 9/30
400
100 50
300 yardeni.com
200 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
200-day moving average. Source: Standard and Poor’s Corporation.
Page 44 / October 3, 2011 / Global Markets Briefing
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
- S&P 500: Information Technology (cont) Figure 50. 300 250
1900
S&P 500 HOME ENTERTAINMENT SOFTWARE
S&P 500 SEMICONDUCTORS
(ERTS)
(ADI ALTR AMD BRCM INTC LLTC LSI MCHP MU NSM NVDA TXN XLNX)
1600
200
1300
150
1000
100
700 9/30
50
9/30
0
100 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
350 300
400
S&P 500 INTERNET SOFTWARE & SERVICES
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
S&P 500 SEMICONDUCTOR EQUIPMENT
(AKAM EBAY GOOG VRSN YHOO)
1700 1500
(AMAT KLAC NVLS TER)
1300 250
1100 900
200 9/30
700
150
500 100 9/30 50
100 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
200
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
S&P 500 IT CONSULTING & OTHER SERVICES
S&P 500 SYSTEMS SOFTWARE
(ACN CTSH DNB SAI)
(BMC CA MSFT NOVL ORCL RHT SYMC)
1500 1300 1100 900 700 9/30
9/30
500 300
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 250
300
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
S&P 500 OFFICE ELECTRONICS (XRX) yardeni.com
150 100 50 9/30 0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 200-day moving average. Source: Standard and Poor’s Corporation.
Page 45 / October 3, 2011 / Global Markets Briefing
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
- S&P 500: Materials Figure 51. 325
S&P 500 MATERIALS INDEX
900
S&P 500 DIVERSIFIED METALS & MINING
800
(FCX TIE)
275
700 600
225
500 9/30
175
400
9/30
300 200
125
100 75
0 1998
325 275
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
S&P 500 ALUMINUM
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014 2100
S&P 500 FERTILIZER & AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS
(AA)
1700
(CF MON) 225
1300 175 900
9/30
125
500
75
9/30
25
100 1998
275 250
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1998
2000
2002
S&P 500 CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS
S&P 500 GOLD
(VMC)
(NEM)
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014 180
9/30
225
140
200 175
100
150 125
60
100 75 50 1998 300 250
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
9/30 2012
yardeni.com 2014
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
20
2014
S&P 500 DIVERSIFIED CHEMICALS (DD DOW EMN FMC PPG)
200 9/30
150 100 50 0 1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
200-day moving average. Source: Standard and Poor’s Corporation.
Page 46 / October 3, 2011 / Global Markets Briefing
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
- S&P 500: Materials (cont) Figure 52. 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100
S&P 500 INDUSTRIAL GASES
S&P 500 PAPER PRODUCTS
(APD ARG PX)
(IP MWV) 9/30 9/30
1998 160 140
220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
S&P 500 METAL & GLASS CONTAINERS
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014 480
S&P 500 SPECIALTY CHEMICALS
(BLL)
440
(ECL IFF ROH SIAL)
400 9/30
120
360 320
100 9/30
280
80
240
60
200 160
40
120
20
80 1998
220 200
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014 420
S&P 500 PAPER PACKAGING
S&P 500 STEEL
(BMS SEE)
(AKS ATI CLF NUE X)
380 340
180
300
160
260
140
220 180
9/30
120 100
140
9/30
100
80 yardeni.com
60 1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
60 20
2014
200-day moving average. Source: Standard and Poor’s Corporation.
Page 47 / October 3, 2011 / Global Markets Briefing
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
- S&P 500: Telecommunication Services Figure 53. 420
S&P 500 TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
1200
S&P 500 WIRELESS TELECOMMUNICATION
1100
(AMT PCS S)
380
1000 340
900
300
800 700
260
600 220
500
180
400 300
140
9/30
200
100
9/30
100
60
0 1998
350
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
S&P 500 INTEGRATED TELECOMMUNICATION (CTL FTR Q T VZ WIN)
300
250
200
150 9/30 100 yardeni.com
50 1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
200-day moving average. Source: Standard and Poor’s Corporation.
Page 48 / October 3, 2011 / Global Markets Briefing
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
- S&P 500: Utilities Figure 54. 250
S&P 500 UTILITIES INDEX
475
S&P 500 GAS UTILITIES (EQT GAS OKE)
225
425
200
375
175
9/30
9/30
325
150
275
125
225
100
175
75
125
50
75 1998
325 300
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
S&P 500 ELECTRIC UTILITIES
S&P 500 MULTI-UTILITIES
(AEP AYE DUK EIX ETR EXC FE FPL NU PGN PNW POM PPL SO)
(AEE CMS CNP D DTE ED NI PCG PEG SRE TE TEG XEL WEC)
2008
2010
2012
2014 25
275
9/30
250
20
225 9/30
200 175
15
150 125 100 yardeni.com
75 1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
1998
2000
10 2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
200-day moving average. Source: Standard and Poor’s Corporation
Page 49 / October 3, 2011 / Global Markets Briefing
Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com
Copyright (c) Yardeni Research, Inc. 2011. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. This report and the others posted on www.yardeni.com are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company’s stock. Predictions, forecasts, estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments. The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed on any Yardeni Research, Inc. product, service, report, email or website are proprietary to Yardeni Research, Inc. and constitute valuable intellectual property. No material from any part of www.yardeni.com may be downloaded, transmitted, broadcast, transferred, assigned, reproduced or in any other way used or otherwise disseminated in any form to any person or entity, without the explicit written consent of Yardeni Research, Inc. All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Yardeni Research, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Yardeni Research, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property, including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means, now known or hereafter devised. Yardeni Research, Inc. reserves the right, without further notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil remedies for the violation of its rights. The recipient should check any email and any attachments for the presence of viruses. Yardeni Research, Inc. accepts no liability for any damage caused by any virus transmitted by this company’s emails or website. Additional information available on request.