ETSAP Workshop, 17th June 2013

Systems analysis of the electricity supply options for Japan Hiroshi Hamasaki Research Fellow, Economic Research Centre, Fujitsu Research Institute Visiting Fellow, Centre for International Public Policy Studies [email protected]

Amit Kanuida Partner, KanORS-EMR INTERNAL USE ONLY

Contents I. Introductions & Motivations II. TIMES-GIS Hybrid Model: JMRT (Japan MultiRegional Transmission Model)

III. Systems Analysis IV. Conclusions

INTERNAL USE ONLY

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I. Introduction & Motivations  After the Earthquake  Thermal power station fill the electricity shortage due to low availability of nuclear power station after the earthquake. As the result, imports of fossil fuel imports increases by 4 trillion JPY (=40 billion US$) and electricity price increased by around 15%.  Carbon dioxide increased by 4.2% above 2010 in 2011 (7.7% in Fuel Conversion Sector).  Before the earthquake, nuclear was expected to play a major role to meet 25% below 1990 by 2020 and increase energy self sufficiency.  It is very unlikely that new nuclear power station is built and it is very uncertain how many nuclear power station re-operate.

 Objectives  This research tries to illustrate some lessons to reduce carbon dioxide without economic damage and energy security threat in Japan using systems analysis.  To make realistic/believable evaluation to promote REs, we need different model framework. INTERNAL USE ONLY

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Electricity Generation after the Earthquake 100%

100%

90%

90%

80%

80%

Changes from 2010 t0 2011 Nuclear AF (67.3% to 23.7%) Oil Share (7.5% to 14.4%) LNG Share (29.3% to 39.5%)

70%

70%

60%

60%

50%

50%

40%

40%

30%

30%

20%

20%

10%

10%

0%

0%

2002

2003

INTERNAL USE ONLY

2004

2005

2006 3

2007

2008

2009

2010

Nuclear

Coal LNG Oil Hydoro Renewables Nuclear AF

2011 Copyright 2013 FUJITSU RESEACH INSTITUTE

II. TIMES-GIS HYBRID MODEL: JMRT (JAPAN MULTI-REGIONAL TRANSMISSION MODEL) INTERNAL USE ONLY

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JMRT is…  Detailed disaggregate Japanese electricity generation system model based on TIMES.  10 electricity grids with weak connections between grids.  Two different electricity frequencies, 50Hz and 60Hz, with frequency converters to convert one frequency to another.  Energy Demands at Prefecture Level (47 Prefectures in Japan)  12 Time Slices (4 Seasons & 3 Times)  Existing PowerStation Data & Planned PowerStation Data  Life-time Extension of Existing PowerStation  Capacity of LNG and Coal Port  Limits to the capacity share of sum of PV and Wind in each grid (20% in 2015, 40% in 2025 and 60% in 2050). INTERNAL USE ONLY

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Overview of JMRT Existing PowerStation

Existing Pumped-Storage

New Technology

Electricity

Industry Manufacturing Non-manufacturing

USC

Domestic

IGCC

Household

GTCC

Office

Nuclear

Transport

Biomass Wind PV Geothermal

USC: Ultra-super Critical IGCC: Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle GTCC: Gas Turbine Combined Cycle

Small Hydro INTERNAL USE ONLY

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10 Grids and Grid Connections

0.6GW

5.57GW 16.66GW

6GW

0.3GW

5.57GW

2.4GW 5.57GW

0.9GW

1.4GW

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12 Time Slices

Load Curve in Most Electricity Consumed day Million kW

 3 Time Periods  Day（8～13、16～23）  Peak（14～15）  Night（0～7）

hr

 4 Seasons

Peak Demand in each Year

 Spring（3～6）  Summer（7～9）  Autumn（10～12）  Winter（1～2）

Million kW

month INTERNAL USE ONLY

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Existing PowerStation Data

Existing PowerStation Data include •Type of PowerStation •Latitude, Longitude •Prefecture •Start Year •Life Time •Electricity Generation Capacity •Availability Factor (AF) INTERNAL USE ONLY

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Data of Renewable Potential No.

Prefecture Lati- Long- Wind Code tude itude Speed

1 2 1 km mesh

3

Huge Renewable Potential in Hokkaido Area.

Geothermal

Offshore Wind Onshore Wind Huge Electricity Consumption in Kanto Area including Tokyo.

GIS Data is from MOE Potential Survey INTERNAL USE ONLY

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Location is important Distance from grid More than 20,000V http://www.gsi.go.jp/KIDS/ map-sign-tizukigou-h0702-01soudensen.htm

Distance from road Wind Speed Wind Speed (m/s)

Availability Factor INTERNAL USE ONLY

AF (%)

5.5

15.8%

6

19.7%

6.5

23.5%

7

27.3%

7.5

31.0%

8

34.5%

8.5

37.9%

Sea Depth (Offshore)

Initial Cost 11

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GIS to Calculate Dist. From Grid and Road

Onshore Wind Offshore Wind INTERNAL USE ONLY

Road Electricity Grid 12

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New Data Sets (Off-shore Wind) ■GIS Data

■GIS Calculations

Distance Distance Sea from from Depth Road Grid

Prefecture Lati- Long- Wind No. Code tude itude Speed

■New Data

Invest- Availability Life Capacity ment O&M Factor Time (AF)

＋

＋ 1

2

3

GIS INTERNAL USE ONLY

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GIS to TIMES (Aggregation) Prefecture No. Latitude Longitude Code GIS

Wind Speed

Distance Distance Invest- Availability from from Capacity ment O&M Factor Road Grid cost (AF)

Onshore Wind 373,356 Tech.

1 2 3

Cost

AF

Cost 0

AF 0

Cost 0

AF 1

Cost 1

AF 0

Cost 1

AF 1

TIMES

INTERNAL USE ONLY

Pref 1 Pref 2 Pref 3 Pref 4 Pref 5 Pref 6

Onshore Wind Upper limits of3,290 Capacity Tech. In each cluster

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CCS (Carbon Capture Storage) Potential

Potential (billion ton-CO2)

*Japan CO2 emission was 1.16 billion ton-CO2 in 2010 **Total CCS Potential is 32.8 billion ton-CO2.

Source: Calculation based on METI INTERNAL USE ONLY

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Data Sources Categories Existing Power Stations

Description Capacity, Generation

Power Stations Under Construction

Capacity

LNG Port

Capacity

Tex Report, Gas Annual Report 2010

On-shore Wind Turbine, Off-shore Wind Turbine, PV, Geothermal, Small Hydro

Potential and Cost

Ministry of the Environment (2011), Survey on Potential of Renewable Energy

Biomass

Potential

New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization (NEDO), Biomass Potential and Available Biomass Estimation International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Outlook

Renewable Energy

Cost Conventional Power Generation

Coal, Gas, Oil, Nuclear and Hydro

Electricity Consumption

Cost

International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Outlook

Electricity Consumption by Prefecture

Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, Prefecture Energy Consumption Statistics Federation of Electric Power Companies of Japan, Nuclear and Energy Drawings

Electricity Load Curve

INTERNAL USE ONLY

Sources Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, Overview of Electricity Demand and Supply 2009 Federation of Electric Power Companies of Japan, Handbook of Electricity Business 2010 Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, Prefecture Energy Consumption Statistics, Institute of Energy Economics

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III. SYSTEMS ANALYSIS

INTERNAL USE ONLY

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Cost Curves of Major RES in Japan from GIS 2,500

Offshore Wind 2,000

1,500

TWh

10 EPC Generation 860TWh (FY2011)

1,000

Onshore Wind

500

PV

0 0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Cents / kWh Source: Calculation from JMRT Database INTERNAL USE ONLY

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Demand & RE Potential Weak Connection 0.6GW

Low Demand High RE Potential Twh High Demand Low RE Potential

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Potential is just a potential  Geographical RE Supply-Electricity Demand Mismatch  The Japanese electricity system comprises10 grids with weak inter-grid connections. The greatest potential for on-shore wind lies in the Hokkaido and Tohoku regions in the north, while the Kanto region has great demand but limited potential, resulting in geographical supply-demand mismatch.  Given the current state of Japan’s power grids, the full potential of on-shore wind in the north cannot be tapped. In order for electricity produced in the north to be consumed in Kanto, interconnecting facilities are necessary, which drives up the cost.

 Electricity must be produced exactly when it is consumed  It (and heat, to a large extent) is different from other energy forms like oil and gas in that several hours or days of supply cannot be stored in tanks and cylinders at the point of consumption.  Wind power generation depends on wind flows, which are reasonably stable when averaged over months and years, but actual flows over hours and days can be significantly higher or lower than these averages.  To match the demand (with seasonal and diurnal variations) using an intermittent source we need a combination of standby capacity and storage. Standby capacity could be LNG that can respond quickly and meet the deficit when wind flows are low. Storage would absorb energy when flows are above average and release when they are below. Both these options increase the cost of supplying electricity.

….In addition, technology development will affects the cost of supplying REs.

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Systems Analysis  “Systems Analysis” is the dissection of a system into its component pieces to study how those component pieces interact and work. Grid Expansion

• •

•

CCS

Cheap Solar

Investment for Grid-expansion between grids 1,500 US$/kW for GE between Hokkaido and Tohoku 1,000 US$ for other GEs

INTERNAL USE ONLY

Storage

•

•

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Investment and O&M cost will decrease by 50% in 2030 and 75% in 2050

Unlimited availability of a $2,000/kw technology with storage EFF of 75% and charge/discharge rates suitable for day-night storage.

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Simulation Scenarios (2013-2050) Grid Expansion Ref Ccs Sol SolT Tor Gex GexC GexS

✓ ✓ ✓

GexT

✓

GexST GexSCT

✓ ✓

CCS

Cheap Solar

Storage

✓ ✓ ✓

✓ ✓

✓

✓ ✓ ✓ ✓

✓

✓ ✓

Notice: 10 levels of CO2 prices ($0 to $1,000/t-CO2) are used in each scenario, to trigger low-carbon configurations.

440 Simulations INTERNAL USE ONLY

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Benefits of GE on Wind No Grid expansion

Offshore Wind (TWh)

Grid expansion

Onshore Wind (TWh)

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Onshore Wind by Scenario (2050) TWh 180 Gex10

160

Ref10

140 120 100 80 60 40

20 0

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Supply Curve under Current Japan Ely System Potential Offshore Wind

Electricity Generation (TWh)

1,400 1,200

1,000 800

Win-OFF Win-ON Win-Off_Ref Win-On_Ref

Potential Onshore Wind

600 400 200 0 10

12

14

16

18

20

22

Electricity Price (Cents/kWh) INTERNAL USE ONLY

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Benefits of Grid Expansion Potential Offshore Wind

Electricity Generation (TWh)

1,400 1,200 1,000 800

Win-OFF Win-ON Win-Off_Ref Win-On_Ref Win-Off_GE Win-On_GE

Potential Onshore Wind

600

400 200

0 10

12

14

16

18

20

22

Electricity Price (Cents/kWh) INTERNAL USE ONLY

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Cost Curves of Major REs with/without GE 600 PV_Gex Offshore Wind_Gex

Electricity Generation (TWh)

500

Onshore Wind_Gex PV_Ref Offshore Wind_Ref

400

Onshore Wind_Ref

300

200

100

0 0

5

10

15

20

25

Electricity Price (Cent/kWh) INTERNAL USE ONLY

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Wind & Solar Deployment by Prefecture (2050) Gex10

Grid Expansion ✓

CCS

Cheap Solar

Grid Expansion

Storage

CCS

Cheap Solar

Storage

Ref10

Onshore Wind

More Wind from Hokkaido and Tohoku

Offshore Wind PV

More Wind from Kyushu *Carbon Tax is 1,000 US$/tonne-CO2 **Pie Range: 0.07 to 207.32 TWh INTERNAL USE ONLY

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Impacts of Grid Expansion 90

600

CO2 Emissions Self Dependency

80

Self-dependency (%)

70 60

400 Self GE

50 300

Self Ref CO2 GE

40

CO2 Ref 30

200

20 100

CO2 Emissions (million ton-CO2)

500

10 0 6,900,000

7,400,000

7,900,000

0 8,400,000

System Cost (million US$) INTERNAL USE ONLY

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Benefits of CCS Without CCS

Offshore Wind (TWh)

With CCS

Onshore Wind (TWh)

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Impacts of CCS 70

600 Self Dependency CO2 Emissions 500

50 400 40

Self CCS 300

CO2 CCS

30

CO2 Ref 200

20 100

10

0 6,900,000

Self Ref

7,400,000

7,900,000

CO2 Emissions (million ton-CO2)

Self-dependency (%)

60

0 8,400,000

System Cost (million US$) INTERNAL USE ONLY

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IV. Conclusions  In renewable energy era, geological information makes cost curve more realistic.  Japan’s 10 separate electricity grids limit the potential of wind power. This means that wind turbines are not built in highly cost-effective regions, and that even if partial optimisation is being performed on each regional power grid, the entire system is not being optimised. This results in high costs for increasing the spread of renewables.  CCS makes thermal power station competitive and as a result, selfdependency will be lower compared to the reference scenario, but carbon tax (=carbon restriction) will be absorbed easily.  Further research will take demand side management and other sources including hydrogen into account.

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Self-dependency, CO2 and System Cost

Self-dependency (%)

CO2 Emissions (million ton-CO2)

System Cost (million US$) INTERNAL USE ONLY

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Cost Curves - CCS and REs 400 PV_CCS Offshore Wind_CCS

350

Electricity Generation (TWh)

Onshore Wind_CCS PV_Ref

300

Offshore Wind_Ref Onshore Wind_Ref

250 200 150

100 50 0 0

5

10

15

20

25

Electricity Price (Cent/kWh) INTERNAL USE ONLY

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