Swedish Federation of Wood and Furniture Industry
Mr. Leif G Gustafsson, January 2013
Quarterly change of GDP 10
The Swedish national economy is good. GDP was declining as in most countries 2008-09 but has recovered quickly and well. The national debt is 33% of GDP.
6 P 4 e r 2 c e 0 n -2 t -4
2006 1 2006 2 2006 3 2006 4 2007 1 2007 2 2007 3 2007 4 2008 1 2008 2 2008 3 2008 4 2009 1 2009 2 2009 3 2009 4 2010 1 2010 2 2010 3 2010 4 2011 1 2011 2 2011 3 2011 4 2012 1 2012 2 2012 3
8
-6 -8
8
Sweden is highly depending on its export industries. The Swedish currency is globally small, but has strengthened against Euro and US$ which affect the export negative. Estimation for 2013 is lower than 2012. TMF – Swedish Federation of Wood and Furniture Industry
GDP compared over 10 years
6
Sweden
USA
OECD
4 2 0 2001 -2 -4 -6
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
The overall construction investment in Sweden 2011 was SEK 300 billion (45,7 Bn US$), 8,6% of GDP. Residential construction was estimated to decrease -9% 2012 and remain unchanged 2013
Number of housing starts is still declining. An upturn is estimated during 2013. Political and financial decisions, such as mortgage restrictions, are keeping the housing starts low.
TMF – Swedish Federation of Wood and Furniture Industry
BillionUS$
change
2011
2011
2012
2013
Residential
20
15
-9
0
Non-residential
14,5
9
14
0
Civil engineering
11,2
0
8
0
Total
45,7
9
2,5
0
Housing starts yearly 100000 90000 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0
Construction investments differ among the nordic countries of Europe. Housing starts were down in Sweden 2012 and will almost stay at the same level 2013. Both Finland and Norway will start more new housing than Sweden although they have only half the population as Sweden. Overall construction investments were approx. 150 billion US$ 2011 in Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Finland and Iceland. In the circle diagrams below Sweden is the blue sector Residential
Non-residential
28% 72%
TMF – Swedish Federation of Wood and Furniture Industry
Civil engineering
31% 69%
38% 62%
Housing starts have been low since 1993 in Sweden. Today we have a shortage of approx 250.000 apartments. Population is estimated to grow as the diagram shows. Shortage of housing will increase 90000 80000
Housing starts
70000 60000
50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0
TMF – Swedish Federation of Wood and Furniture Industry
Population growth
Industrial production will be necessary To meet with future demands of new housing, more effective industrial processes must be developed. Modular construction is becoming an attractive alternative and the technology is being developed continuously. Turnkey building elements produced in-house using an industrial process under controlled conditions means high quality, flexibility and short delivery times, with controlled economy. The apartments are delivered from the factory with the kitchen and bathroom fittings pre-installed, and the bathroom already tiled. A high level of prefabrication at the factory reduces the risk and the work required at the construction site TMF – Swedish Federation of Wood and Furniture Industry
Prefabricated Swedish Houses
Planning stage
TMF – Swedish Federation of Wood and Furniture Industry
Prefabricated multidwelling house
Production stage
TMF – Swedish Federation of Wood and Furniture Industry
examples from Lindbäcks AB, www.lindbacks.se
Prefabricated multidwelling house Production stage Average size of a volume unit is 25 m2 (maximum 4,5 x 9,6 m). Approx. 40 units (1000 m2) are produced weekly by 130 people.
TMF – Swedish Federation of Wood and Furniture Industry
Prefabricated multidwelling house Mounting stage, lifting up prefabricated volume units with mobile crane
TMF – Swedish Federation of Wood and Furniture Industry
Prefabricated multidwelling house Mounting stage, lifting up prefabricated roof section
TMF – Swedish Federation of Wood and Furniture Industry
Prefabricated multidwelling house Each house: 20 apartments, production time in factory 3 weeks, on construction site 12 weeks. Approx. 15 weeks in total.
TMF – Swedish Federation of Wood and Furniture Industry
Prefabricated single house Production stage
TMF – Swedish Federation of Wood and Furniture Industry
examples from Älvsbyhus AB, www.alvsbyhus.se
Prefabricated single house
Mounting stage unloading prefabricated volumes with truck crane
TMF – Swedish Federation of Wood and Furniture Industry
Prefabricated single house Prefabricated roof and attic mounted late day one
TMF – Swedish Federation of Wood and Furniture Industry
Prefabricated single house 165 m2 production time in factory 153 hours, on construction site 15 days, approx. 40 days in total
TMF – Swedish Federation of Wood and Furniture Industry
Prefabricated modules for roof extension Townhouse modules mounted on top of an old rebuilt office building in city center of Stockholm examples from Moelven Byggmodul AB, www.moelven.se
TMF – Swedish Federation of Wood and Furniture Industry
Prefabricated modules for roof extension Apartments with a high degree of finishing from the factory and a high degree of repetition in production mean cost efficiency.
TMF – Swedish Federation of Wood and Furniture Industry
2004 only 2 % of all multidwelling houses were build of wood. Today the share is 16 %. 85 % of all single houses are build of wood. Industrially prefabricated houses are increasing rapidly.
Sustainable Buildings Sweden has very high goals concerning sustainability.
• 20 % reduction of used energy in buildings by 2020 • 50 % reduction of used energy in buildings by 2050 • CO2 neutral society by 2050 • Near Zero energy used for heating by 2021
+energy A-hus
TMF – Swedish Federation of Wood and Furniture Industry
Sustainable Buildings Building regulations in Sweden from 2013.
• Maximum measured electric energy used for heating and hot water 55 kWh/m2 and year. • Maximum measured nonelectric energy for heating and hot water 90 kWh/m2 and year
TMF – Swedish Federation of Wood and Furniture Industry
Sustainable Buildings Standard building systems that meet the new requirements.
• Wall thickness 270 – 350 mm, U-value 0,12 – 0,16 W/m2 K. • Windows, tripple-glazed with U-value 0.7 – 1,1 W/m2 K • Floor and roof, U-value 0.08 – 0,12 W/m2 K • Heating system, district heating or heat pump
TMF – Swedish Federation of Wood and Furniture Industry
Sustainable Buildings Next generation buildings is already being built.
• Electric energy produced with PV-cells. • Increased insulation in walls, floor and roof. • Heating system, district heating or heat pump combined with solar heating.
TMF – Swedish Federation of Wood and Furniture Industry
Sustainable Buildings R&D is mainly focused on making the latest technology commercial available and robust. • Better insulation for thinner walls, aerogel etc. • PV-cells incorporated in roof and wall elements. • Robust building systems concerning moisture related problems. • Industrial production methods for more cost effective products.
TMF – Swedish Federation of Wood and Furniture Industry