Surveys of Consumers Time Series Codebook
Variable ICS ICE ICC PAGO
PAGORN
PEXP
Question Index of Consumer Sentiment Index of Consumer Expectations Index of Current Economic Conditions "We are interested in how people are getting along financially these days. Would you say that you (and your family living there) are better or worse off financially than you were a year ago?" PAGO_F PAGO_S PAGO_U PAGO_DK
Better Same Worse DK;NA
PAGO_R
BETTER ‐ WORSE + 100
"Why do you say so?" PAGORN_HY PAGORN_HA PAGORN_LD PAGORN_LY PAGORN_HP PAGORN_LA PAGORN_HD
Higher Income Higher Assets Lower Debts Lower Income Higher Prices Lower Assets Higher Debts
PAGORN_NY PAGORN_NAD
PAGORN_HY ‐ PAGORN_LY (PAGORN_HA + PAGORN_LD) ‐ (PAGORN_LA + PAGORN_HD)
"Now looking ahead ‐‐ do you think that a year from now you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, worse off, or just about the same as now?" PEXP_F PEXP_S PEXP_U PEXP_DK
Better Same Worse DK;NA
PEXP_R
BETTER ‐ WORSE + 100
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Surveys of Consumers Time Series Codebook
PTRD
PAGO5
PEXP5
PTRD5
Annual Trend in Past and Expected Household Financial Situation PTRD_BB PTRD_BS PTRD_SS PTRD_WS PTRD_WW PTRD_BW PTRD_DK
Better off financially a year ago/Better off a year from now Better/Same or Same/Better Same/Same Worse/Same or Same/Worse Worse/Worse Better/Worse DK;NA
PTRD_R
BETTER ‐ WORSE + 100
"Now thinking back 5 years, would you say you (and your family living there) are better off or worse off financially now than you were 5 years ago?" PAGO5_F PAGO5_S PAGO5_U PAGO5_DK
Better Same Worse DK;NA
PAGO5_R
BETTER ‐ WORSE + 100
"And 5 years from now, do you expect that you (and your family living there) will be better off financially, worse off, or just about the same as now?" PEXP5_F PEXP5_S PEXP5_U PEXP5_DK
Better Same Worse DK;NA
PEXP5_R
BETTER ‐ WORSE + 100
Five Year Trend in Past and Expected Household Financial Situation PTRD5_BB PTRD5_BS PTRD5_SS PTRD5_WS PTRD5_WW PTRD5_BW PTRD5_DK
Continuous increase Intermittent increase Remain unchanged Intermittent decline Continuous decline Mixed change DK;NA
PTRD5_R
BETTER – WORSE + 100
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Surveys of Consumers Time Series Codebook
INEX
RINC
PINC2
"During the next 12 months, do you expect your (family) income to be higher or lower than during the past year?" And "By about what percent do you expect your (family) income to increase during the next 12 months?" INEX_DWN INEX_0 INEX_12 INEX_34 INEX_5 INEX_69 INEX_125 INEX_25P INEX_DKUP INEX_DK INEX_MED
Expect down Expect same Expect increase: 1‐2% Expect increase: 3‐4% Expect increase: 5% Expect increase: 6‐9% Expect increase: 10‐24% Expect increase: 25% or more Expect increase: DK how much DK;NA Median
INEX_R
Relative Score
"During the next year or two ‐‐ do you expect that your (family) income will go up more than prices will go up, about the same, or less than prices will go up?" RINC_F RINC_S RINC_U RINC_DK
Income up more Income up same Income up less DK;NA
RINC_R
MORE ‐ LESS + 100
"What do you think is the percent chance that your income in the next twelve months will be higher than your income in the past twelve months?" PINC2_0 PINC2_0124 PINC2_2549 PINC2_50 PINC2_5174 PINC2_7599 PINC2_100 PINC2_DK PINC2_MEAN
0% 1‐24% 25‐49% 50% 51‐74% 75‐99% 100% DK;NA Mean
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Surveys of Consumers Time Series Codebook
PINC
"What do you think the chances are that your (family) income will increase by more than the rate of inflation during the next five years or so?" PINC_0 PINC_0124 PINC_2549 PINC_50 PINC_5174 PINC_7599 PINC_100 PINC_DK PINC_MEAN
PJOB
"During the next 5 years, what do you think the chances are that you (or your husband/wife) will lose a job you wanted to keep?" PJOB_0 PJOB_0124 PJOB_2549 PJOB_50 PJOB_5174 PJOB_7599 PJOB_100 PJOB_DK PJOB_MEAN
PSSA
0% 1‐24% 25‐49% 50% 51‐74% 75‐99% 100% DK;NA Mean
0% 1‐24% 25‐49% 50% 51‐74% 75‐99% 100% DK;NA Mean
"What do you think the chances are that when you retire, your income from Social Security and job pensions will be adequate to maintain your living standards?" PSSA_0 PSSA_0124 PSSA_2549 PSSA_50 PSSA_5174 PSSA_7599 PSSA_100 PSSA_DK PSSA_MEAN
0% 1‐24% 25‐49% 50% 51‐74% 75‐99% 100% DK;NA Mean
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Surveys of Consumers Time Series Codebook
PCRY
PSTK
"Compared with 5 years ago, do you think the chances that you (and your husband/wife) will have a comfortable retirement have gone up, gone down, or remained about the same?"
PCRY_F PCRY_S PCRY_U PCRY_DK
Gone up Same Gone down DK;NA
PCRY_R
BETTER ‐ WORSE + 100
"Suppose that tomorrow someone were to invest one thousand dollars in a type of mutual fund known as a diversified stock fund. What do you think is the percent chance that this one thousand dollar investment will increase in value in the year ahead, so that it is worth more than one thousand dollars one year from now?" PSTK_0 PSTK_0124 PSTK_2549 PSTK_50 PSTK_5174 PSTK_7599 PSTK_100 PSTK_DK PSTK_MEAN
INV
0% 1‐24% 25‐49% 50% 51‐74% 75‐99% 100% DK;NA Mean
"Do you (or any member of your family living there) have any investments in the stock market, including any publicly traded stock that is directly owned, stocks in mutual funds, stocks in any of your retirement accounts, including 401(K)s, IRAs, or Keogh accounts?" and "Considering all of your (family’s) investments in the stock market, overall about how much would your investments be worth today?" INV_9 INV_24 INV_49 INV_99 INV_199 INV_499 INV_500 INV_DK INV_MD INV_P25 INV_P75 INV_R50
Under $10,000 $10,000‐$24,999 $25,000‐$49,999 $50,000‐$99,999 $100,000‐$199,999 $200,000‐$499,999 $500,000 and up DK Amount Median 25th Percentile 75th Percentile Interquartile Range (75th‐25th)
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Surveys of Consumers Time Series Codebook
HMV
"What is the current market value of your home? (If you sold it today, how much would it bring in?)" HMV_99 HMV_199 HMV_299 HMV_399 HMV_499 HMV_500 HMV_DK HMV_MD HMV_P25 HMV_P75 HMV_R50
NEWS
NEWSRN
Under $100,000 $100,000‐$199,999 $200,000‐$299,999 $300,000‐$399,999 $400,000‐$499,999 $500,000 and up DK;NA Median 25th Percentile 75th Percentile Interquartile Range (75th‐25th)
"During the last few months, have you heard of any favorable or unfavorable changes in business conditions?" NEWS_F NEWS_U NEWS_N
Favorable news Unfavorable news No news
NEWS_R
FAVORABLE ‐ UNFAVORABLE + 100
"What did you hear?" NEWSRN_F_GOVT Favorable news: Government; elections NEWSRN_F_EMP Favorable news: Employment NEWSRN_F_DEM Favorable news: High consumer demand NEWSRN_F_PRI Favorable news: Lower prices NEWSRN_F_CRED Favorable news: Easier credit NEWSRN_F_STK Favorable news: Stock Market NEWSRN_F_TRD Favorable news: Trade deficit NEWSRN_U_GOVT Unfavorable news: Government; Elections NEWSRN_U_EMP Unfavorable news: Unemployment NEWSRN_U_DEM Unfavorable news: Lower consumer demand NEWSRN_U_PRI Unfavorable news: Higher prices NEWSRN_U_CRED Unfavorable news: Tighter credit NEWSRN_U_ENG Unfavorable news: Energy crisis NEWSRN_U_STK Unfavorable news: Stock Market NEWSRN_U_TRD Unfavorable news: Trade deficit NEWSRN_NP NEWSRN_NE NEWSRN_NG
NEWSRN_F_PRI ‐ NEWSRN_U_PRI NEWSRN_F_EMP ‐ NEWSRN_U_EMP NEWSRN_F_GOVT ‐ NEWSRN_U_GOVT
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Surveys of Consumers Time Series Codebook
BAGO
BEXP
BTRD
BUS12
"Would you say that at the present time business conditions are better or worse than they were a year ago?" BAGO_F BAGO_S BAGO_U BAGO_DK
Better Same Worse DK;NA
BAGO_R
BETTER ‐ WORSE + 100
"And how about a year from now, do you expect that in the country as a whole business conditions will be better, or worse than they are at present, or just about the same?" BEXP_F BEXP_S BEXP_U BEXP_DK
Better Same Worse DK;NA
BEXP_R
BETTER ‐ WORSE + 100
Trend in Past and Expected Changes in Business Conditions BTRD_BB BTRD_BS BTRD_SS BTRD_WS BTRD_WW BTRD_BW BTRD_DK
Better than a year ago/Better a year from now Better/Same or Same/Better Same/Same Worse/Same Worse/Worse Better/Worse or Worse/Better DK;NA
BTRD_R
BETTER ‐ WORSE + 100
"Now turning to business conditions in the country as a whole ‐‐ do you think that during the next 12 months we'll have good times financially, or bad times, or what?" BUS12_F BUS12_S BUS12_U BUS12_DK BUS12_NA
Good times Uncertain Bad times DK NA
BUS12_R
GOOD ‐ BAD + 100
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Surveys of Consumers Time Series Codebook
BUS5
UMEX
RATEX
"Looking ahead, which would you say is more likely ‐‐ that in the country as a whole we'll have continuous good times during the next 5 years or so, or that we'll have periods of widespread unemployment or depression, or what?" BUS5_F BUS5_S BUS5_U BUS5_NA
Good times Uncertain Bad times NA
BUS5_R
GOOD ‐ BAD + 100
"How about people out of work during the coming 12 months ‐‐ do you think that there will be more unemployment than now, about the same, or less?" UMEX_F UMEX_S UMEX_U UMEX_DK
Less Same More DK;NA
UMEX_R
LESS ‐ MORE + 100
"No one can say for sure, but what do you think will happen to interest rates for borrowing money during the next 12 months ‐‐ will they go up, stay the same, or go down?" RATEX_F RATEX_S RATEX_U RATEX_DK
Go down Stay the same Go up DK; NA
RATEX_R
DOWN ‐ UP + 100
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Surveys of Consumers Time Series Codebook
PX1
PX5
"During the next 12 months, do you think that prices in general will go up, or go down, or stay where they are now?" And "By what percent do you expect prices to go up, on the average, during the next 12 months?" PX1_DWN PX1_0 PX1_12 PX1_34 PX1_5 PX1_69 PX1_1014 PX1_15P PX1_DKUP PX1_DK
Will go down Same or down Will go up by: 1‐2% Will go up by: 3‐4% Will go up by: 5% Will go up by: 6‐9% Will go up by: 10‐14% Will go up by: 15% or more Will go up by: DK how much more DK;NA
PX1_MEAN PX1_VAR PX1_MED PX1_STD PX1_P25 PX1_P75 PX1_R50
Mean Variance Median Standard Deviation 25th Percentile 75th Percentile Interquartile Range (75th‐25th)
"What about the outlook for prices over the next 5 to 10 years? Do you think prices will be higher, about the same, or lower, 5 to 10 years from now?" And "By what percent per year do you expect prices to go up, on the average, during the next 5 to 10 years?" PX5_DWN PX5_0 PX5_12 PX5_34 PX5_5 PX5_69 PX5_1014 PX5_15P PX5_DKUP PX5_DK
Will go down Same or down Will go up by: 1‐2% Will go up by: 3‐4% Will go up by: 5% Will go up by: 6‐9% Will go up by: 10‐14% Will go up by: 15% or more Will go up by: DK how much more DK;NA
PX5_MEAN PX5_VAR PX5_MED PX5_STD PX5_P25 PX5_P75 PX5_R50
Mean Variance Median Standard Deviation 25th Percentile 75th Percentile Interquartile Range (75th‐25th)
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Surveys of Consumers Time Series Codebook
GOVT
DUR
DURRN
"As the economic policy of the government ‐‐ I mean steps taken to fight inflation or unemployment ‐‐ would you say the government is doing a good job, only fair, or a poor job?" GOVT_F GOVT_S GOVT_U GOVT_DK
Good job Only Fair Poor Job DK;NA
GOVT_R
GOOD ‐ POOR + 100
"About the big things people buy for their homes ‐‐ such as furniture, a refrigerator, stove, television, and things like that. Generally speaking, do you think now is a good or bad time for people to buy major household items?" DUR_F DUR_S DUR_U
Good time to buy Uncertain; depends Bad time to buy
DUR_R
GOOD ‐ BAD + 100
"Why would you say so?" DURRN_LP DURRN_BIAP DURRN_LR DURRN_BIAR DURRN_GT DURRN_HP DURRN_HR DURRN_TB DURRN_FB
Good time to buy: Prices are low; good buys available Good time to buy: Prices won't come down; are going higher Good time to buy: Interest rates are low Good time to buy: Borrow in advance of rising interest rates Good time to buy: Times are good; prosperity Bad time to buy: Prices are high Bad time to buy: Interest rates are high; credit is tight Bad time to buy: Times are bad; can't afford to buy Bad time to buy: Bad times ahead; uncertain future
DURRN_NP DURRN_NR DURRN_NT
DURRN_LP ‐ DURRN_HP DURRN_LR ‐ DURRN_HR DURRN_GT ‐ (DURRN_TB + DURRN_FB)
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Surveys of Consumers Time Series Codebook
VEH
VEHRN
GAS1PX
"Speaking now of the automobile market ‐‐ do you think the next 12 months or so will be a good time or a bad time to buy a vehicle, such as a car, pickup, van, or sport utility vehicle?" VEH_F VEH_S VEH_U
Good time to buy Uncertain; depends Bad time to buy
VEH_R
GOOD ‐ BAD + 100
"Why do you say so?" VEHRN_LP VEHRN_BIAP VEHRN_LR VEHRN_BIAR VEHRN_GT VEHRN_MPG VEHRN_HP VEHRN_HR VEHRN_TB VEHRN_FB VEHRN_GAS VEHRN_SEL
Good time to buy: Prices are low; good buys available Good time to buy: Prices won't come down; are going higher Good time to buy: Interest rates are low Good time to buy: Borrow in advance of rising interest rates Good time to buy: Times are good; prosperity Good time to buy: New fuel efficient models Bad time to buy: Prices are high Bad time to buy: Interest rates are high; credit is tight Bad time to buy: Times are bad; can't afford to buy Bad time to buy: Bad times ahead; uncertain future Bad time to buy: Price of gas; shortages Bad time to buy: Poor selection; quality
VEHRN_NP VEHRN_NR
VEHRN_LP ‐ VEHRN_HP VEHRN_LR ‐ VEHRN_HR
"Now thinking only abut the next 12 months, do you think that the price of gasoline will go up during the next 12 months, will gasoline prices go down, or will they stay about the same as they are now?" and "About how many cents per gallon do you think gasoline will (increase/decrease) during the next 12 months compared to now?" GAS1PX_F GAS1PX_S GAS1PX_U GAS1PX_DK GAS1PX_MD GAS1PX_MEAN
GAS5PX
Decrease Same Increase DK; NA Median Mean
"Do you think that the price of gasoline will go up during the next five years, will gasoline prices go down, or will they stay about the same as they are now?" and "About how many cents per gallon do you think gasoline prices will (increaese/decrease) during the next five years compared to now?" GAS5PX_F GAS5PX_S GAS5PX_U GAS5PX_DK GAS5PX_MD GAS5PX_MEAN
Decrease Same Increase DK; NA Median Mean
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Surveys of Consumers Time Series Codebook
HOM
HOMRN
SHOM
SHOMRN
"Generally speaking, do you think now is a good time or bad time to buy a house?" HOM_F HOM_S HOM_U
Good time to buy Uncertain; depends Bad time to buy
HOM_R
GOOD ‐ BAD + 100
"What do you say so?" HOMRN_LP HOMRN_BIAP HOMRN_LR HOMRN_BIAR HOMRN_INV HOMRN_GT HOMRN_HP HOMRN_HR HOMRN_TB HOMRN_FB HOMRN_CD
Good time to buy: Prices are low; good buys available Good time to buy: Prices won’t come down; are going higher Good time to buy: Interest rates low Good time to buy: Borrow in advance of rising interest rates Good time to buy: Good investment Good time to buy: Times are good; prosperity Bad time to buy: Prices low Bad time to buy: Interest rates high; credit is tight Bad time to buy: Times are bad; Can’t afford Bad time to buy: Bad times ahead; Uncertain future Bad time to buy: Bad investment
HOMRN_NP HOMRN_NR HOMRN_NT HOMRN_NI
HOMRN_LP ‐ HOMRN_HP HOMRN_LR ‐ HOMRN_HR HOMRN_GT ‐ (HOMRN_TB + HOMRN_FB) HOMRN_INV ‐ HOMRN_CD
"Generally speaking, do you think now is a good time or a bad time to sell a house?" SHOM_F SHOM_S SHOM_U
Good time to sell Uncertain; depends Bad time to sell
SHOM_R
GOOD ‐ BAD + 100
"Why do you say so?" SHOMRN_HP SHOMRN_SIAP SHOMRN_LR SHOMRN_SIAR SHOMRN_GT SHOMRN_INV SHOMRN_LP SHOMRN_HR SHOMRN_TB SHOMRN_FB SHOMRN_CD
Prices are high; good sales available Prices won't go up; are going lower Interest rates are low Sell in advance of rising interest rates Times are good; prosperity Captial appreciation; would make money Prices are low Interest rates are high; credit is tight Times are bad; Can't afford Bad times ahead; Uncertain future Captial depreciation; would lose money
SHOMRN_NP SHOMRN_NR SHOMRN_NT SHOMRN_NI
SHOMRN_LP ‐ SHOMRN_HP SHOMRN_LR ‐ SHOMRN_HR SHOMRN_GT ‐ (SHOMRN_TB + SHOMRN_FB) SHOMRN_INV ‐ SHOMRN_CD
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Surveys of Consumers Time Series Codebook
HOMVAL
HOMPX1
HOMPX5
N
"Do you think the current value of your home‐‐I mean, what it would bring if you sold it today‐‐has increased compared with a year ago, has decreased compared with a year ago, or has it remained about the same?" HOMVAL_F HOMVAL_S HOMVAL_U HOMVAL_DK
Gone up Same Gone down DK; NA
HOMVAL_R
BETTER ‐ WORSE + 100
"What do you think will happen to the prices of homes like yours in your community over the next 12 months? Will they increase at a rapid rate, increase at a moderate rate, remain about the same, decrease at a moderate rate, or decrease at a rapid rate?" and "By about what percent do you expect prices of homes like yours in your community to go (up/down), on average, over the next 12 months?" HOMPX1_F HOMPX1_S HOMPX1_U HOMPX1_DK
Increase Same Decrease DK;NA
HOMPX1_MEAN HOMPX1_MD HOMPX1_VAR HOMPX1_P25 HOMPX1_P75 HOMPX1_R50
Mean Median Variance 25th Percentile 75th Percentile Interquartile Range
"What about the outlook for prices of homes like yours in your community over the next 5 years or so? Do you expect them to increase, remain about the same, or decrease?" and "By about what percent per year do you expect prices of homes like yours in your community to go (up/down), on average, over the next 5 years or so?" HOMPX5_F HOMPX5_S HOMPX5_U HOMPX5_DK
Increase Same Decrease DK;NA
HOMPX5_MEAN HOMPX5_MD HOMPX5_VAR HOMPX5_P25 HOMPX5_P75 HOMPX5_R50
Mean Median Variance 25th Percentile 75th Percentile Interquartile Range
Case count
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Surveys of Consumers Time Series Codebook
Demographics Age groups Age of Respondent
Regions
Monthly: A1834 A3554 A5597
18‐34 35‐54 55 and over
Quarterly and Yearly: A1834 A3544 A4554 A5564 A6597
18‐34 35‐44 45‐54 55‐64 65 and over
Region of Residence W NC NE S
Gender
West North Central (Midwest) Northeast South
Gender of Respondent M F
Income Groups
Male Female
Household Income Monthly: Y13 Y23 Y33
(or INC31) (or INC32) (or INC33)
Bottom 33% Middle 33% Top 33%
Quarterly: Y14 Y24 Y34 Y44
Bottom 25% Second 25% Third 25% Top 25%
Yearly: Y15 Y25 Y35 Y45 Y55
Bottom 20% Second 20% Third 20% Fourth 20% Top 20%
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Surveys of Consumers Time Series Codebook
Education Education of Respondent Monthly: EHS ESC ECD
High school or less Some college College degree or more
Quarterly and Yearly: ELHS EHSD ESC ECD EGS
Less than High School High School degree Some college College degree Graduate studies
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