STUDY ON PRIVATE-INITIATIVE INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES IN FY2011

STUDY ON HIGH SPEED RAILWAY PROJECT BETWEEN JOHANNESBURG AND DURBAN IN THE REPUBLIC OF SOUTH AFRICA

FINAL REPORT

February 2012

Prepared for: The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry

Prepared by: Japan Railway Technical Service Mitsubishi Research Institute, INC.

February 2012

Preface

This report summarized the outcomes of the “Study on Private-Initiative Infrastructure Projects” conducted by Japan Railway Technical Service and Mitsubishi Research Institute. The Study was commissioned by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry as a FY 2011 project.

The “Study on Private-Initiative Infrastructure Projects” examines the feasibility of the project to construct a high-speed railway of approximately 610 km in length (total project cost of approximately 1.9 trillion yen) in the Johannesburg–Durban section, which is the most important transport corridor in South Africa, to improve the traffic flow and develop the areas along the railway route. The project aims at promoting socio-economic development, which is a policy priority for South Africa, and invigorating the industrial sector as a whole via the transfer of high-speed railway technology to South Africa, including its operation, maintenance, and management.

We hope that this report will help bring this project to fruition and also serve as a reference to all parties concerned in Japan.

Japan Railway Technical Service Mitsubishi Research Institute

Project Site

0

Souce: Study Team

Map & Photo-1

200km

Conditions along Route A

A1 Ermelo Station

A2 Six electric locomotives hauling a 200-car freight train carrying coal

A3 Transport of lumber between Ermelo and Piet Retief

A4 Regional route R33 between Piet Retief and Vryheid

A5 Regional Route R102 between Richards Bay and Durban Conditions along Route C

A6 Taxi stand at Stanger Station

C1 High-speed National Route N3

C2 Harrismith Station

between Harrismith and Estcourt Souce: Study Team

Map & Photo-2

Conditions along Route B

B1 Regional Route R23 between Heidelberg and Standerton

B2 Newcastle Station

B3 National Route N11 between Newcastle and Ladysmith

B4 High-speed National Route N3 between Estcourt and Mooi River

B5 Pietermaritzburg shunting yard

B6 Inside Pietermaritzburg Station

B7 High-speed National Route N3 between Pietermaritzburg and Durban

B8 High-speed National Route N2 between Durban and King Shaka International Airport

Souce: Study Team

Map & Photo-3

Photo Location Map of Conditions along Route A1 B1

A3

A2

A4

B2 B3

C2 C1

A5 B4

A6 B5

B8

B6 B7

Souce: Study Team Johannesburg and Vicinities

J1 Johannesburg Park Station (Metro Rail)

J2 Johannesburg Park Station (Metro Rail entrance)

J3 Johannesburg Park Station (Metro Rail concourse)

J4 Johannesburg Park Station (Metro Rail train)

Souce: Study Team

Map & Photo-4

J5 Johannesburg Park Station (Gautrain entrance)

J6 Planned site for Johannesburg Germiston Station

J7 Planned site for Tambo Springs freight terminal

J8 Planned site for car depot

Souce: Study Team Photo Location Map of Johannesburg and Vicinities

Marlboro Station

Johannesburg Park Station

J1-J5

Germiston New Station J6 J7 J8

Freight terminal

Car depot

0 Souce: Study Team

Map & Photo-5

10km

Durban and Vicinities

D1 Durban Station ticket gate

D2 Durban Station concourse

D3 Durban Station platform

D4 South side of Durban Station

D5 North side of Durban Station

D6 Inside King Shaka International Airport

D7 Electronic flight schedule board inside King

D8 Durban International Airport site

Shaka International Airport Souce: Study Team

Map & Photo-6

Photo Location Map of Durban and Vicinities King Shaka Airport Station D6-D7

Durban North New Station D1-D5

Durban Station

D8

Freight terminal/ depot/ workshop 0

10km

Souce: Study Team

Union Carriage & Wagon

Factory building

Metro trains in the factory

Metro train during completion inspection

Train car transported by a crane

Souce: Study Team

Map & Photo-7

Completed electric locomotive

Driver’s cab inside an electric locomotive

Preserved steam locomotive

Preserved electric locomotive

Pretoria Station

Hatfield Station parking structure

Ticket gate at OR Tambo Station

Sandton Station platform

Gautrain

Souce: Study Team

Map & Photo-8

Interior of the train

Gautrain bus

Car depot

Operations Control Center

Container Terminal (Container Terminal is abbreviated as “CT”)

City Deep CT

City Deep CT

Shunting of freight cars at City Deep CT

Container’s door installed on the front panel

Souce: Study Team

Map & Photo-9

Loading and unloading line at Durban CT

Loading and unloading line at Durban CT

Crane used at the loading and unloading

Kingsrest Station（Durban CT）

line at Durban CT Souce: Study Team

Map & Photo-10

Abbreviation Abbreviation

Formal Name

APPA

Atmospheric Pollution Prevention Act

AU

African Union

BA

Basic Assessment

BEE (BBBEE)

Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment Act

CDM

Clean Development Mechanism

CRCC

China Railway Construction Corporation

CRGL

China Railway Group Ltd.

DAEARD

KwaZulu-Natal

Provincial

Government,

Department

of

Agriculture,

Environmental Affairs and Rural Development DARD

Gauteng Provincial Government, Department of Agriculture and Rural Development

DBSA

Development Bank of Southern Africa

DEAT

Department of Environmental Affairs and Tourism

DOT

Department of Transport

DPE

Department of Public Enterprises

ECA

Environment Conservation Act

EIA

Environmental Impact Assessment

EMU

Electric Multiple Unit

EOI

Express of Interest

FMCG

Fast Moving Consumer Goods

F/S

Feasibility Study

HPA

Highveld Priority Area

HSRDA

High Speed Rail Development Agency

IOC

International Olympic Committee

JETRO

Japan External Trade Organization

JICA

Japan International Cooperation Agency

METI

Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry

MOU

Minutes of Meeting

MPRDA

Minerals and Petroleum Resources Development Act

NATMAP

National Transport Master Plan

NEMA

National Environmental Management Act

NFA

National Forest Act

NHRA

National Heritage Resources Act

NWA

National Water Act

PPP

Public-Private Partnership

PRASA

Passenger Rail Agency of South Africa

PQ

Pre-Qualification

S&EIR

Scoping & EIR

SANRAL

South African National Road Agency Limited

SAR & H

South African Railways and Harbors

SATS

South African Transport Services

STEP

Special Terms for Economic Partnership

TEU

Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit

TFR

Transnet Freight Rail

TRE

Transnet Rail Engineering

UCW

Union Carriage & Wagon

Exchange Rate (July 7, 2011): 1 ZAR (South African Rand) =12 Yen 1 USD (US dollar) = 81.01 yen

Table of Contents Preface Maps & Photos Abbreviation Executive Summary Chapter 1 Overview of South Africa and the Target Sector (1) Economic and Financial Conditions of South Africa ........................................................................ 1 (2) Overview of the Project’s Sector ..................................................................................................... 15 (3) Condition of Target Areas................................................................................................................ 24 Chapter 2 Study Methodology (1) Contents of Study ............................................................................................................................ 29 (2) Method and System of Study........................................................................................................... 30 (3) Survey Schedule .............................................................................................................................. 34 Chapter 3 Justification, Objectives and Technical Feasibility of the Project (1) Project Background and Necessity, etc............................................................................................ 37 (2) Various Reviews Required for Determining Project Contents......................................................... 48 (3) Overview of Project Plan................................................................................................................. 64 (4) Operation Entity..............................................................................................................................115 Chapter 4 Evaluation of Environmental and Social Impacts (1) Analysis of the Current State of the Environment and Society ......................................................117 (2) Environmental and Social Improvement from the Implementation of the Project ........................ 131 (3) Effects on the Environment and Society from the Implementation of the Project ........................ 137 (4) Overview of South Africa’s Legislation concerning Environmental and Social Considerations .. 143 (5) What Needs to be done by the Country Concerned (the Implementing Agency and the Other Relevant Agencies) towards the Launching of the Project.............................................................. 154 Chapter 5 Financial and Economic Evaluation (1) Estimation of Project Cost ............................................................................................................. 155 (2) Summary of results of the preliminary financial and economic analyses ..................................... 160

Chapter 6 Planned Project Schedule (1) Implementation Schedule .............................................................................................................. 169 i

(2) Project Implementation Schedule .................................................................................................. 170 Chapter 7 Implementing Organization (1) Overview of Implementation Organizations in South Africa ........................................................ 173 (2) Organizational Structure for Implementation of the Project in South Africa ................................ 175 (3) Assessing the Capabilities of South Africa’s Implementation Entities and Relevant Measures.... 179 Chapter 8 Technical Advantages of Japanese Companies (1) Envisioned Forms of Participation for Japanese Companies (Funding, Supply of Material Resources, Operational Management of Facilities, etc.) ................................................................. 181 (2) Advantages of Japanese Companies in Implementation of the Project ......................................... 185 (3) Measures to Aid Japanese Companies to Get the Order for the Project ........................................ 192 Chapter 9 Financial Outlook (1) Examination of Source of Funds and Financing Plans .................................................................. 195 (2) Feasibility of Fund-raising............................................................................................................. 199 (3) Cash Flow Analysis ....................................................................................................................... 199 Chapter 10 Action Plan and Issues (1) Initiatives for Realizing the Project ............................................................................................... 201 (2) Initiatives Taken by Concerned Government Agencies and Implementation Organization in South Africa for Realizing the Project....................................................................................................... 203 (3) Legal/Financial Limitations if any in South Africa ....................................................................... 204 (4) Need for Additional In-depth Analysis .......................................................................................... 206

ii

List of Figures

Executive Summary Figure 1 Proposed High-speed Railway for South Africa ............................................................................... 3 Figure 2 Map of Three Route Options for the Johannesburg–Durban High-speed Railway........................... 4 Figure 3 Hypothetical Timetable (2050: 25 years after start of service) ......................................................... 9 Figure 4 Outcomes of Financial Analysis ..................................................................................................... 14 Figure 5 Locations of Project ........................................................................................................................ 21

Chapter 1 Overview of South Africa and the Target Sector Figure 1-1 Ranking of South Africa in the World’s Per Capita Nominal GDP (2010).................................... 1 Figure 1-2 Changes in South Africa’s GDP and GDP Growth Rates .............................................................. 2 Figure 1-3 Changes in the Contributions of Provinces to South Africa’s GDP............................................... 2 Figure 1-4 Changes in Inflation Rates in South Africa ................................................................................... 3 Figure 1-5 Changes in Unemployment Rates in South Africa ........................................................................ 3 Figure 1-6 Changes in the Composition of South Africa’s GDP by Industry.................................................. 5 Figure 1-7 Changes in the Composition Ratios of Gauteng Province’s GDP by Industry .............................. 6 Figure 1-8 Changes in the Composition Ratios of KwaZulu-Natal Province’s GDP by Industry................... 7 Figure 1-9 Changes in the Population of South Africa.................................................................................... 8 Figure 1-10 Ratio of Estimated Population in 2011 by Population Group...................................................... 8 Figure 1-11 Percentages of Population in South Africa by Province .............................................................. 9 Figure 1-12 Inflow and Outflow of Population of Each Province (2006 – 2011) ........................................... 9 Figure 1-13 Changes in the Revenues and Expenditures of South Africa (2004–2011) ............................... 10 Figure 1-14 Changes in the Ratios of South Africa’s Treasury Budget to GDP (2004–2011) ...................... 10 Figure 1-15 Changes in South Africa’s International Balance of Payments (2008–2010) ............................ 11 Figure 1-16 Changes in South Africa’s Foreign Debt Amounts (2004–2011) .............................................. 12 Figure 1-17 Changes in Rail Freight Volumes .............................................................................................. 16 Figure 1-18 Shares of Transport Modes in Commuter Transport.................................................................. 16 Figure 1-19 Major Railway Network ............................................................................................................ 17 Figure 1-20 Major Road Network ................................................................................................................. 18 Figure 1-21 Major Air Route Network.......................................................................................................... 19 Figure 1-22 Major Ports and Railway Network ............................................................................................ 19 Figure 1-23 Provinces in the Republic of South Africa................................................................................. 24

Chapter 2 Study Methodology Figure 2-1 Flowchart of Study Method ......................................................................................................... 31 Figure 2-2 Composition of Survey Team Members ...................................................................................... 32 iii

Figure 2-3 Counterparts in South Africa (Contact Departments and Persons).............................................. 33 Figure 2-4 Study Conducted in Japan and in South Africa ........................................................................... 34

Chapter 3 Justification, Objectives and Technical Feasibility of the Project Figure 3-1 Difference between the Two Traction Systems............................................................................ 39 Figure 3-2 Map of Three Route Options for the Johannesburg–Durban High-speed Railway ..................... 41 Figure 3-3 Longitudinal Alignment of Route A ............................................................................................ 42 Figure 3-4 Longitudinal Alignment of Route B ............................................................................................ 42 Figure 3-5 Longitudinal Alignment of Route C ............................................................................................ 43 Figure 3-6 Method of Demand Forecast ....................................................................................................... 48 Figure 3-7 Distribution Traffic Volume between Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal Provinces by Transportation Mode (Without High-speed Railway) .................................................................. 49 Figure 3-8 Modal Share (High estimate)....................................................................................................... 52 Figure 3-9 Modal Share (Low estimate) ....................................................................................................... 52 Figure 3-10 Future Forecast of the Number of High-speed Railway Passenger ........................................... 53 Figure 3-11 Future Forecast of the Number of High-speed

Railway Passenger within the KwaZulu-Natal

Province................................................................................................................................................. 54 Figure 3-12 Future Forecast of Container Freight Volume in Durban-Gauteng section (Without)............... 55 Figure 3-13 Forecast of annual volume of cargo transportation

by high-speed railway (Future forecast). 56

Figure 3-14 Freight Containers (The door is at the back) ............................................................................. 58 Figure 3-15 Japan’s Freight Containers (The door is at the aside)................................................................ 58 Figure 3-16 Location Map of the Lyon – Torino High-speed Railway Plan ................................................. 59 Figure 3-17 Overview of the Lyon–Torino High-speed Railway Route ....................................................... 60 Figure 3-18 Proposal of High-speed Railway Designed for South Africa .................................................... 65 Figure 3-19 Construction Gauge and Vehicle Gauge of the High-speed Railway ........................................ 67 Figure 3-20 Alignment (1/3) ......................................................................................................................... 73 Figure 3-21 Alignment (2/3) ......................................................................................................................... 74 Figure 3-22 Alignment (3/3) ......................................................................................................................... 75 Figure 3-23 Profile (1/3) ............................................................................................................................... 76 Figure 3-24 Profile (2/3) ............................................................................................................................... 77 Figure 3-25 Profile (3/3) ............................................................................................................................... 78 Figure 3-26 Map Comparing the Proposed Locations for the Johannesburg Terminal ................................. 83 Figure 3-27 Map Comparing the Proposed Locations for the Durban Terminal ........................................... 84 Figure 3-28 Standard Cross Section of Elevated Structure ........................................................................... 85 Figure 3-29 Standard Cross Section of Embankment ................................................................................... 86 Figure 3-30 Standard Cross Section of Cutting............................................................................................. 86 Figure 3-31 Standard Cross Section of Tunnel.............................................................................................. 87 Figure 3-32 Factory’s production area .......................................................................................................... 88 Figure 3-33 Tubular Track at Denneboom Station

(Metrorail) .................................................................. 88 iv

Figure 3-34 Main Station .............................................................................................................................. 89 Figure 3-35 Intermediate Station................................................................................................................... 89 Figure 3-36 Track Layout Plan...................................................................................................................... 90 Figure 3-37 Conceptual Configuration of Freight Train ............................................................................... 96 Figure 3-38 Procedures for Formulating an Train Operation Plan ................................................................ 98 Figure 3-39 Hypothetical Train Diagrams................................................................................................... 106 Figure 3-40 Hypothetical Train Diagram .................................................................................................... 107 Figure 3-41 Durban Workshop.................................................................................................................... 110 Figure 3-42 Comparison of the Conventional Cargo Handling Method and E&S System ......................... 113 Figure 3-43 Organizational Chart................................................................................................................ 116

Chapter 4 Evaluation of Environmental and Social Impacts Figure 4-1 Map of South Africa by Province .............................................................................................. 117 Figure 4-2 Distribution of Groundwater Resources in South Africa........................................................... 121 Figure 4-3 Highveld Priority Area (HPA) for Anti-Pollution Measures...................................................... 122 Figure 4-4 Changes in the Concentration of Nitrate at Water Sampling Sites ............................................ 124 Figure 4-5 Distribution of Ramsar Sites (Wetlands) in South Africa .......................................................... 128 Figure 4-6 Percentages of CO2 Emissions from Energy Consumption in South Africa by Sector ............. 129 Figure 4-7 Flowchart of EIA Processes in South Africa ............................................................................. 148

Chapter 5 Financial and Economic Evaluation Figure 5-1 The composition of project cost for the high-speed railway system.......................................... 157 Figure 5-2 Total Project Cost ...................................................................................................................... 158 Figure 5-3 Flow of Benefit and Cost (Before discount) High Estimate ...................................................... 163 Figure 5-4 Sensitivity Analysis (CBR)........................................................................................................ 164 Figure 5-5 Financial Analysis Results (1) ................................................................................................... 166 Figure 5-6 Financial Analysis Results (2) ................................................................................................... 167

Chapter 6 Planned Project Schedule None

Chapter 7 Implementing Organization Figure 7-1 Railway Administration of South Africa ................................................................................... 173 Figure 7-2 Ministry of Transport and Related NATMAP Entities .............................................................. 174 Figure 7-3 Plan for the High-speed Railway Network of South Africa ...................................................... 176 Figure 7-4 Structure for the Implementation of High-speed Projects in South Africa ................................ 177 Figure 7-5 Structure for Implementing the Johannesburg–Durban High-speed Railway Project ............... 178

v

Chapter 8 Technical Advantages of Japanese Campamies None

Chapter 9 Financial Outlook None

Chapter 10 Action Plan and Issues None

vi

List of Tables

Executive Summary Table 1 Image of Combined Passenger and Freight High-speed Railway ...................................................... 3 Table 2 Comparison of Routes ........................................................................................................................ 5 Table 3 Major Construction Standards of the High-speed Railway ................................................................ 6 Table 4 Types and Lengths of Civil Engineering Structures ........................................................................... 8 Table 5 Specifications of Electric Facilities .................................................................................................... 8 Table 6 Basic Specifications of Passenger Train ............................................................................................. 9 Table 7 Travel Time (Johannesburg–Durban Section) .................................................................................... 9 Table 8 Number of Trains (Johannesburg-Durban Section) and Number of Cars......................................... 10 Table 9 Total Project Cost ............................................................................................................................. 11 Table 10 Economic Analysis Results ............................................................................................................ 12 Table 11 Implementation Schedule ............................................................................................................... 16 Table 12 Strengths of Shinkansen System and Benefits when Applied to this Project ................................. 18

Chapter 1 Overview of South Africa and the Target Sector Table 1-1 South Africa’s Major Exporting Partners (customs clearance basis) ............................................ 13 Table 1-2 South Africa’s Major Importing Partners (customs clearance basis) ............................................ 13 Table 1-3 Changes in Direct Investments by Foreign Countries in South Africa.......................................... 14 Table 1-4 Comparison of Travel Time and Fare by Transportation Mode in the Johannesburg–Durban Section................................................................................................................................................... 23 Table 1-5 Passenger Transport Volume in the Johannesburg–Durban Section.............................................. 23 Table 1-6 Freight Transport Volume in the Johannesburg–Durban Section .................................................. 23 Table 1-7 Overview of the Four Provinces.................................................................................................... 25 Table 1-8 Changes in South Africa’s Unemployment Rates by Province (Unit: %) ..................................... 26

Chapter 2 Study Methodology Table 2-1 Major Project-related Entities in South Africa .............................................................................. 33 Table 2-2 Outcomes of First Field Survey (High-speed Railway Route Survey Team)................................ 35 Table 2-3 Outcomes of First Field Survey .................................................................................................... 35 Table 2-4 Outcomes of Second Field Survey ................................................................................................ 36 Table 2-5 Outcomes for Third Field Survey.................................................................................................. 36

Chapter 3 Justification, Objectives and Technical Feasibility of the Project Table 3-1 Comparison of High-speed Railway Systems ............................................................................... 40 Table 3-2 Comparing the Project Costs of Three Route Alternatives............................................................ 44 vii

Table 3-3 Route Comparison......................................................................................................................... 47 Table 3-4 Zoning (Gauteng Province and KwaZulu-Natal Province) ........................................................... 50 Table 3-5 Parameters ..................................................................................................................................... 50 Table 3-6 Travel Time/Fare by Transportation Mode.................................................................................... 51 Table 3-7 Combined Passenger and Freight Transport Patterns.................................................................... 61 Table 3-8 Image of Combined Passenger and Freight High-speed Railway ................................................. 65 Table 3-9 Major Construction Standards of the High-speed Railway ........................................................... 66 Table 3-10 Basic Conditions for Passenger Trains........................................................................................ 68 Table 3-11 Basic Conditions for Freight Trains ............................................................................................ 69 Table 3-12 Overview of Locations of Passenger Stations ............................................................................. 79 Table 3-13 Comparing Locations for the Johannesburg Terminal................................................................. 81 Table 3-14 Comparing Locations for the Durban Terminal .......................................................................... 82 Table 3-15 Types and Lengths of Civil Engineering Structures .................................................................... 87 Table 3-16 Basic Specifications of Passenger Train...................................................................................... 95 Table 3-17 Basic Specifications of Freight Train .......................................................................................... 97 Table 3-18 Travel Time (Route B; Johannesburg – King Shaka International Airport) .............................. 100 Table 3-19 Travel Time (Route B; King Shaka International Airport - Johannesburg)............................... 101 Table 3-20 Travel Time (Routes A and C)................................................................................................... 102 Table 3-21 Train Configuration and Number of Trains............................................................................... 103 Table 3-22 Number of Passenger Trainsets and Number of Cars Needed .................................................. 104 Table 3-23 Freight Train Configuration and Number of Trains .................................................................. 105 Table 3-24 Number of Freight Trainsets and Number of Cars Needed....................................................... 105 Table 3-25 Inspection System and Inspection Sites for High-speed Rolling Stock .................................... 108 Table 3-26 Main Car Inspection and Repair Facilities ................................................................................ 109 Table 3-27 Cost Reduction List................................................................................................................... 112 Table 3-28 Personnel Required for the Operation of High-speed Railway (Estimate)................................ 116

Chapter 4 Evaluation of Environmental and Social Impacts Table 4-1 Geological Conditions of South Africa ....................................................................................... 119 Table 4-2 Climate Type of Provinces in South Africa................................................................................. 120 Table 4-3 Wind Direction, Wind Speed, and Average Temperature of Johannesburg and Durban .......... 120 Table 4-4 Air Quality of the Highveld Priority Area for Anti-pollution Measures...................................... 123 Table 4-5 Species Richness per Taxonomic Group of the Biomes of South Africa .................................... 125 Table 4-6 Number of Threatened Species per Taxonomic Group per Biome of South Africa .................... 125 Table 4-7 State of Plant Biodiversity in South Africa ................................................................................. 126 Table 4-8 Distribution of Ramsar Sites (Wetlands) in South Africa............................................................ 127 Table 4-9 Major Calculation Results of Reduction in NOx and PM10

with the Implementation of this

Project ................................................................................................................................................. 134 Table 4-10 Major Calculation Results of Reduction in CO2 Emissions with the Implementation of this viii

Project ................................................................................................................................................. 136 Table 4-11 Outcomes from Verifying this Project with the JICA Environmental Checklist ....................... 138 Table 4-12 Comparison of Three Route Options for the Project................................................................. 141 Table 4-13 Comments and Information Gathered from Government Agencies and Private Organizations in South Africa .................................................................................................................................... 142

Chapter 5 Financial and Economic Evaluation Table 5-1 The Anticipated Expenditures of the Project cost by Year .......................................................... 159 Table 5-2 Economic analysis Results (1) High Estimate ............................................................................ 162 Table 5-3 Economic analysis Results (2) Low Estimate ............................................................................. 163 Table 5-4 Financial Analysis Results (1)..................................................................................................... 166 Table 5-5 Financial Analysis Results (2)..................................................................................................... 167

Chapter 6 Planned Project Schedule Table 6-1 Route Lengths and Construction Periods of the World’s High-speed Railways Opened in Recent Years.................................................................................................................................................... 169 Table 6-2 Project Implementation Schedule................................................................................................ 171 Table 6-3 Construction Schedule ................................................................................................................ 171

Chapter 7 Implementing Organization None

Chapter 8 Technical Advantages of Japanese Companies Table 8-1 Technology Transfer Items for Control and Operation ............................................................... 182 Table 8-2 Types of High-speed Railways.................................................................................................... 185 Table 8-3 Characteristics of Shinkansen System......................................................................................... 186 Table 8-4 Strengths of Shinkansen System and Advantages when Applied to this Project......................... 190

Chapter 9 Financial Outlook Table 9-1 Source of Funds by Business Schemes (1).................................................................................. 196 Table 9-2 Source of Funds by Business Schemes (2).................................................................................. 197 Table 9-3 Source of Funds by Business Schemes (3).................................................................................. 198

Chapter 10 Action Plan and Issues Table 10-1 Highlights of Major Laws ......................................................................................................... 204

ix

Executive Summary

(1) Background of Project and Needs for the Project This project aims to introduce a high-speed railway to the Johannesburg–Durban section, which is a main corridor in the Republic of South Africa.

South Africa has the largest economy in Africa. It is also one of the emerging economies experiencing high economic growth in recent years. It has an average GDP growth rate of over 4%, except in 2009, which was affected by Lehman’s fall. The per-capita nominal GDP of South Africa in 2010 ranked No. 3 among the BRICS countries, after Brazil and Russia. While the emerging economies and developing countries in the world are drawing up high-speed railway plans, the intercity passenger transport in South Africa is still relying on airplane and automobile. From the perspectives of socio-economic development and BEE policy, the high-speed railway plan has become an important topic in transport infrastructure that holds the key to sustainable economic development.

In the policy speech given by President Zuma at the National Assembly in February 2010, the development of infrastructure, including railway, has already been designated as a priority area. The Department of Transport (DOT) in South Africa has also proposed the development of three high-speed railway corridors in NATMAP, the national transport master plan with 2050 as its target year. It has also taken up review of the Johannesburg–Durban High-speed Railway Project as a priority among the strategic issues. In May 2010, the South African National Assembly approved to solidify the high-speed railway project and put forth a plan to establish HSRDA, an organization under DOT to take charge of high-speed railway projects.

Japan also designated the export of systems, including transport infrastructure, as a strategy for economic growth. High-speed railway is identified as a priority area. Railway-related industries and railway operators have also started to turn their attention to overseas markets. Therefore, there is high expectation for these railway-related businesses, which have superior technologies in rolling stock, signaling, telecommunication, to expand overseas.

It is necessary to look into a combined passenger and freight system for South Africa since it will be difficult to ensure profitability based solely on income from passenger transport service in the Johannesburg–Durban section.

Under such circumstances, this project formation study was conducted to identify areas in which the Japanese high-speed railway technology can be utilized, to appeal the technology’s superiority to the concerned parties in the South African government, and to deepen the understanding of South Africa in the Japanese high-speed railway technology.

Summary-1

(2) Basic Principles in Determining Contents of the Project The project’s basic principles for planning the high-speed railway for the Johannesburg–Durban section are based on NATMAP, which is being formulated by the Department of Transport of South Africa, the intent of concerned government officials, and the outcomes of local surveys. They are as follows:

1.

Objectives

1) Combined Passenger and Freight High-speed Railway This high-speed railway system will be based on the Japanese Shinkansen. It will provide not only high-speed passenger transport but also freight transport. The freight transport will not cover bulk cargoes but the freight containers that are being handled at the Port of Durban.

2) High-speed Railway System Matching the Conditions in South Africa In our search for a specific high-speed railway system for South Africa, we considered the local conditions and designed technical specifications to match them.

3) Travel Time between Johannesburg and Durban The passenger trains will run at a maximum operating speed of 300 km/h, linking Johannesburg and Durban in less than three hours. The freight trains will basically run at night at a maximum speed of 160 km/h. It will link Johannesburg and Durban in about five hours.

2.

Conditions in South Africa that Require Consideration

The following points shall be fully considered when planning the high-speed railway for South Africa:

1) Socio-economic Development (Job Creation, Technology Transfer, etc.) South Africa is promoting socio-economic development through job creation, technology transfer, and so on. The Johannesburg–Durban High-speed Railway needs to be planned in line with those intents and purposes. Technology shall be transferred with the objective to facilitate localization.

2) BEE (Black Economic Empowerment) Policy The policy (BEE policy) was enacted in 2004 to give preferential treatment to historically disadvantaged South Africans (HDSA) who were discriminated during the Apartheid era, to enhance their social status, and to promote their participation in social activities. Specifically, the government set standards for hiring black people at companies, universities, and various other companies and organizations in South Africa in order to improve the economic level and living standard of the black people. The BEE policy will also apply to the construction and operation of high-speed railway.

3) Comfortable and Safe High-speed Railway (Ensuring Security) Public transport means in South Africa, represented by Metrorail and mini-buses, lack safety. The user

Summary-2

classes are limited. The Johannesburg–Durban High-speed Railway aims at providing safe and comfortable high-speed railway service, as seen in Gautrain.

Figure 1 and Table 1 show the discussion flow and image of the Johannesburg–Durban High-speed Railway. As shown in Table 1, the high-speed railway will focus on the operation of passenger trains. Freight trains will operate during the night and the number of freight trains will be limited to a certain number.

Figure 1 Proposed High-speed Railway for South Africa Japanese Shinkansen South African Factors - Socio-economic development (Job creation, technology transfer, etc.) - BEE Policy (Note) - Ensuring security

- Optimization of technical specifications - Cost reduction - Technical Collaboration

High-speed Railway Designed for South Africa (Objectives) - Combined passenger and freight transport - Localization - Industrialization - Maximum speed: Passenger: 300 km/h Freight: 160 km/h - Travel time for Johannesburg–Durban section Passenger: within 3 hours Freight: about 5 hours (Note) BEE = Black Economic Empowerment

Source: Study Team

Item Passenger Freight

Train operation Maintenance

Table 1 Image of Combined Passenger and Freight High-speed Railway Open for full service (2025) 25 Years after launch (2050) 1–2 trains per hour Operation focused on passenger trains (6:00 – 23:00) (increased transport capacity) Operate Super Rail Cargo during the Freight train operation limited to a night (container freight train) certain number (10 trains/one-way/day) (Same as left) Parallel single tracks Parallel single tracks

2 days (Saturdays and Sundays) a week when the freight trains are not in operation. Maintenance is carried out at night. Source: Study Team

Summary-3

Same as left

3.

Comparison with Other Alternatives

1) Comparison of High-speed Railway Systems The high-speed railway systems operating in the world today include the distributed traction system (multiple-unit system) represented by the Japanese Shinkansen and the concentrated traction system represented by the French TGV. In comparing the two systems, the distributed traction system has many benefits. Its light axle load makes it possible to keep the infrastructure cost low. It has high performance in acceleration and deceleration and is capable of negotiating the continuous steep slopes that exist on the route of this project. Therefore, it is assumed that the Shinkansen system using distributed traction system will be used for this project.

2) Route Plan A comparison study was conducted on the three high-speed railway route options for the Johannesburg–Durban section: Route A running along the rail freight line via Richards Bay, Route B running along the conventional line via Newcastle, and Route C running along highway N3 (Figure 2).

Figure 2 Map of Three Route Options for the Johannesburg–Durban High-speed Railway

Source: Study Team

Table 2 shows the comparison results of the three routes. In the comparison of travel time between Johannesburg and Durban, demand forecast (passenger, freight), and project cost, routes B and C are better than Route A, which is the longest. Route B is the best option in terms of social and environmental considerations. Its impact on the wetlands and areas of the indigenous people is small.

Summary-4

Although the demand forecast method used in this Study did not bring to light the difference in demand between Route B and Route C as a result of difference in the distribution of big cities along the routes, it is assumed that Route B has higher demand due to the big cities on its route. Therefore, Route B is assumed to be the route for this project.

Table 2 Comparison of Routes Item

Route A

Route B

(1) It runs along the conventional rail freight line through Richards Bay. (2) The topography is relatively flat and there is no long tunnel. (3) Except Richards Bay, there is no major city along the line.

Route overview

Route length

(1) It runs along the conventional line through Newcastle. (2) It passes through mountainous areas. (3) There are several intermediate cities along the line.

Approx. 720 km

Route C (1) It runs along highway N3. (2) It passes through mountainous areas. (3) Pietermaritzburg is the only intermediate city along the line.

Approx. 610 km

Approx. 560 km

Travel time of passenger trains

Approx. 3 hours (one stop) ~ 3 hours 40 minutes (stop at every station)

Approx. 2 hours 30 minutes (one stop) ~ 3 hours (stop at every station)

Approx. 2 hours 15 minutes (one stop) ~ 2 hours 40 minutes (stop at every station)

Demand forecast (Year2050) High estimate

Passenger

33,000 trips/day

38,000 trips/day

38,000 trips/day

Freight

Lower than Route B

4.2 million tons/year

4.2 million tons/year

Project cost

Approx. 158 billion R

Approx. 155 billion R

Social and environmental considerations

(1) Impact on road transport companies small (2) Impact on wetland highly possible (3) Impact of fewer traffic accidents small (4) Highly possible to pass through areas of the indigenous people

Approx. 169 billion R

(1) Impact on road transport companies huge (2) Impact on wetland unlikely (3) Impact of fewer traffic accidents huge (4) Unlikely to pass through areas of the indigenous people

(1) Impact on road transport companies huge (2) Impact on wetland highly possible (3) Impact of fewer traffic accidents huge (4) Unlikely to pass through areas of indigenous people

Economic ripple effect (job creation)

370,000 people/during construction period Slightly higher than Route B

350,000 people/during construction period 7,600 people/year

340,000 people/during construction period 7,600 people/year

Construction Service

Assessment

C

A

Exchange Rate : 1 ZAR (South African rand) =12 yen, 1 USD (US dollar)= 81.01 yen (July 7, 2011) Source: Study Team

Summary-5

B

(3) Overview of Project Plan The project plan is formulated based on the basic principles for determining the contents of this project, which is to build a combined passenger and freight high-speed railway based on the Japanese Shinkansen system that matches the conditions in South Africa. The following is an overview of the plan:

1. Technical Specifications 1) Construction Standards Table 3 shows the major construction standards.

Table 3 Major Construction Standards of the High-speed Railway Item

Standards

Gauge

1,435 mm

Design maximum speed

350 km/h

Maximum operation speed Passenger train

300 km/h

Freight train (freight containers)

160 km/h

Minimum horizontal curve radius

Main line: R=6,000 m

Minimum vertical curve radius

25,000 m

Steepest gradient

15‰ (20‰ at some areas)

Track center distance

5.0 m

Width of track foundation

12.1 m

Track structure

Ballasted track （ slab track for certain sections）

Operation method

Parallel single-track

Complete grade separation

No grade crossing at ground level

Source: Study Team

2) Route Plan a. Selection of Route Upon reviewing the horizontal alignment and vertical alignment, we made every effort to secure straight sections, large curved sections, and low gradient sections when planning the route in order to facilitate high-speed operation. From the viewpoints of ease of construction and control of the construction period, the alignment was reviewed with the goal to keep the tunnel length under 20 km.

b. Selecting the Locations of Passenger Stations Locations of the passenger stations were determined by considering passenger demand, connectivity with other transportation modes, including the conventional lines, future prospect of the city where the station

Summary-6

is located, and so on. The stations are basically divided into two types: the main stations that will have turn-back operation (Johannesburg, Pietermaritzburg, Durban, and King Shaka International Airport) and the intermediate stations (Heidelberg, Standerton, Volksrust, Newcastle, Ladysmith and Mooi River) for passing through only (Refer to Figure 2).

c. Selection of Passenger Terminal Stations The location of the Johannesburg Passenger Terminal is supposed to be at the Metrorail Johannesburg Park Station. However, from the perspective of construction cost and environmental and social considerations, the new station (Germiston Station) is the first candidate and it shall be structured to make it possible to extend to the Johannesburg Park Station and the existing Germiston Station in the future. It is hoped that the freight line that intersects the station will be used as an access line to the urban areas.

On the other hand, the Metrorail station (Durban Station) and a new station (Durban North) were compared for the location of the Durban passenger terminal. From the perspectives of connection with the freight terminal and car depot, and social and environmental considerations, the proposed Durban Station is the number one candidate. The route near the station will run parallel to the Metrorail.

d. Freight Terminal and Car Depot Tambo Springs, located at approximately 30 km southeast of Johannesburg, will be the candidate site for the freight terminal on the Johannesburg side, in light of Transnet’s plan to set up a new container terminal. Ease of acquiring land for the car depot is taken into consideration. Therefore, similar to the container terminal, the candidate site will also be near Tambo Springs.

On the other hand, the former Durban International Airport site, situated at approximately 15 km south of Durban, will be the candidate site for the freight terminal on the Durban side, in light of Transnet’s plan to set up a new container terminal. Similar to the container terminal, the former Durban International Airport site will be the candidate site for the car depot and workshop, in consideration of the procurement of materials using ocean transport.

3) Civil Engineering Structures and Track a. Civil Engineering Structures Basically, elevated structures will be used in urban areas, embankment and cutting in rural areas where the terrain has little undulation, and tunnels in the mountainous areas. Table 4 shows the types and lengths of civil engineering structures.

Summary-7

Table 4 Types and Lengths of Civil Engineering Structures Type of Structure

Length (km)

Ratio (%)

Earthwork

381

63

Tunnels

127

21

Bridges

3

1

95

15

606

100

Elevated Track Total Source: Study Team

b. Track Basically ballasted track will be used from the viewpoint of reducing construction cost and creating jobs, the latter is stipulated by the BEE policy. However, slab track will be used in tunnels and sections of high-speed operation.

4) Electric Facilities Table 5 shows the major specifications of electric facilities.

Table 5 Specifications of Electric Facilities Type Electricity Substation Overhead catenary Signaling

Telecommunication

Item Power supply method Substation facilities Overhead line method Signaling method Train control Block system Train radio Security facilities

Specifications AC25kV・50Hz, AT feeding Substation, sectioning post, ATP Simple catenary method Onboard signaling method ATC continuous curve control Single-line bi-directional method Space wave digital (tunnel: LCX method) Surveillance camera, security monitor, recording equipment

Source: Study Team

5) Rolling Stock The passenger train will adopt the distributed traction system (EMU) based on the Japanese Shinkansen train. It will have the functions to operate at a maximum speed of 300 km/h and be able to negotiate continuous grade of 20‰ at high speed.

The freight train will be used exclusively to carry containers. The distributed traction system will be used since the freight train has to cover the Johannesburg and Durban section within 5 hours and be able to negotiate continuous grade of 20‰.

Summary-8

Table 6 Basic Specifications of Passenger Train Item Train type Gauge

Passenger train Electric train (EMU Type) 1,435 mm

Freight train Same as left

Electrification

AC25kV／50Hz

Same as left

Maximum axle load Maximum operation speed

Under 16 t

Same as left

300 km/h

160 km/h

Same as left

Trainset: 8 cars at launch of service (occupancy about 600 people) Maximum 12 cars (occupancy about 900 people)

Others

Trainset: 28 cars (two 14-car trainsets coupled into 1 trainset) Container weight: 48TEU/trainset

Source: Study Team

6) Operation Plan To avoid the high-speed train and freight train from passing each other and to resolve the difficulty in formulating a timetable with trains running at different speeds, the high-speed trains will operate from morning to night and the freight trains will operate during the other hours. The freight trains will not operate from Saturday and Sunday to the following mornings. The maintenance works will be carried out during the night on weekends.

Table 7 Travel Time (Johannesburg–Durban Section) Direction Down line (going south) Up line (going north) Note

Passenger (1 stop) 2 hours 28 minutes

Passenger (local) 2 hours 59 minutes

Freight 4 hours 17 minutes

2 hours 30 minutes

3 hours 03 minutes

4 hours 18 minutes

Include stopping time

Source: Study Team

Figure 3 Hypothetical Timetable (2050: 25 years after start of service) 0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

Johannesburg Heidelberg

Standerton Volksrust Newcatsle

Lady Smith Estcourt

Pietermaritzburg

Durban King Shaka Airport

Passenger Train (stops at only 2 stations) Passenger Train (stops at every station) Freight Train

Source: Study Team

Summary-9

24

Table 8 Number of Trains (Johannesburg-Durban Section) and Number of Cars Year 2020 2025 2050

Passenger train Round trip No. of cars 15 40 28 192 30 312

Freight train Round trip No. of cars 10 630 10 630

Source: Study Team

7) Car Depots and Maintenance Depots a．Car Depots A depot will be set up in Johannesburg to carry out daily inspection and regular inspection and a workshop will be set up in Durban to carry out bogie inspection and general inspection.

b．Maintenance Depots The maintenance depots will be set up at intervals of approximately 75 km, assuming that the high-speed confirmation cars will be used. Maintenance works will be carried out during the hours when there is no train operation.

2. Total Project Cost The total project cost is shown in the table below. The total construction cost is approximately 1.3 trillion yen. Including the rolling stock cost, consulting service fee, taxes, general administration fee, reserves, and land acquisition cost, the total project cost is approximately 1.9 trillion yen.

Summary-10

Table 9 Total Project Cost Estimated project cost Domestic Item Foreign currency Total currency million yen million yen Million rand Civil structures construction cost 48,100 49,400 641,400 Track construction cost 40,300 7,000 124,100 Station construction cost 12,200 9,200 122,400 Various buildings 32,800 10,900 163,900 Machinery and equipment cost 20,000 400 25,000 Electric facilities cost 102,700 2,100 128,300 Signaling/telecommunication facilities cost 50,800 1,100 63,500 System construction cost 10,800 100 12,000 Total construction cost 317,700 80,200 1,280,600 Rolling stock cost (passenger cars) 72,000 0 72,000 Rolling stock cost (freight cars) 148,500 0 148,500 Consulting service fee 15,900 4,000 64,000 Taxes (domestic currency) 0 11,800 141,600 Import tax (foreign currency) 26,700 0 26,700 General administration fee (domestic 0 4,000 48,100 currency) Reserves 15,900 4,000 64,000 Land acquisition cost 0 3,900 46,900 Total project cost 596,700 107,900 1,892,400 1 ZAR（South African rand）=12 yen, 1 USD（US dollar）= 81.01 yen（July 7, 2011） Total project cost: 1,892,400 million yen =158 billion Rand = 23,400 million USD Source: Study Team

3. Outcomes of Preliminary Financial and Economic Analyses 1) Economic analysis a. In-service Period and Social Discount Rate It is assumed that the construction will start in 2015 and that the railway will open in phases. ・The section from King Shaka International Airport to Pietermaritzburg will open for service in 2020. ・Opening of the entire line in 2025 The in-service period is assumed to be 55 years, from 2020 to 2074 (which is the 50th year from the opening of the entire line).

8% is used as the social discount rate for the standard case, 6% and 10% are used for the sensitivity analysis.

b. Measurement of Benefits We measured the consumer benefits and supplier benefits from the passenger and freight services. Consumer benefits are measured by the reduction in travel time and lower cost by switching from air or

Summary-11

cars to rail. Supplier benefit is measured by the railway operator’s increase in profit. As the premise for the measurement of benefits, the four step estimation method was used to forecast the demand of passenger and freight. First, the interregional traffic values were estimated based on the future forecast values in NATMAP. Next, the railway passenger transport volume was estimated using the parameters of modal share in NATMAP. As for the years of forecast, we selected 2020, 2025 and 2050.

On the other hand, since freight transport does not have the same kind of model as passenger transport, the freight volume was estimated based on interviews with multiple freight forwarders. As for the years of forecast, we selected 2025 and 2050.

The forecast is 38,000 passengers/d for passenger service and 4.2 million t/y for freight service (both are the high estimate case in 2050). In the economic and financial analyses, the benefits and revenues were estimated by supplementing the line shapes derived from the forecast results at 2020, 2025 and 2050.

c.

Calculation of Cost

The project cost estimated in 2. above is recorded as expenditures.

d. Economic Analysis The outcomes of EIRR, NPV, and B/C are as follows: When the social discount rate is 8%, the EIRR is 9.8%. From the perspective of social economy, the investment is deemed valid.

Table 10 Economic Analysis Results Social discount rate 6% Benefit (billion Rand) User benefit

Supplier benefit

8%

10%

162

94

58

passenger

58

33

20

freight

34

20

13

passenger

29

17

10

freight

41

24

15

88

72

60

Cost (billion Rand) EIRR (%)

9.8%

NPV (billion Rand)

75

22

-1

CBR

1.9

1.3

1.0

Note: High estimate Source: Study Team

Summary-12

2) Financial analysis This project, positioned as the national project in the currently-considered NATMAP, financial involvement of the central government is viewed as inevitable. Also, financial involvement of the state government is expected, since the project will contribute to the development of corridor in the State of KwaZulu-Natal at the advanced operation, as we suggest through this study.

On the other hand, because this project requires a large amount of necessary funds, various sources of funds (both governmental/private) should be utilized, just like the Gautrain case, the South Africa’s first railway PPP project1.

Based on the above, we conducted financial analysis on the premise that this project would be funded not only by the government but also by the private sector and various other sources (including separation of train operation and ownership of infrastructure). We reviewed the percentage of each potential funding source in order for the project to be financially viable. Once we find out from the analysis results what percentage of government funds is needed to ensure business profitability, we can determine whether it is possible for the government to provide such funds. By the way, since it was difficult to determine in advance the amount of funds that the government would be able to provide, we opted to find out in this analysis how change in the percentages of government and private sector funds will affect the profitability of the project.

We analyzed how the percentage of grant aid will change the net present value of each assumed discount rate.

A range from 10% to 90% was used as the percentages of grant aid for the analysis. Gautrain was used as reference since it received a little less than 90% of its initial investment in the form of subsidies from the provincial government. The subsidy ratio of Gautrain was determined based on an agreement between the provincial government and the concession of Gautrain, taking into consideration Gautrain’s social and economic benefits and its financial and economic feasibility. Thus, it makes sense to use Gautrain’s percentage as reference. However, it is also noteworthy that Gautrain and this project are different in scale.

In the case that the real hurdle rate is 12%, the project is assumed to be valid if the ratio of grant aid is over 70%, as shown in Figure 4.

1

During the field study, we heard about financing of the South African government for public projects that ”Hybrid Funding Method” the idea of utilizing various sources of funds, is recently becoming more popular.

Summary-13

Figure 4 Outcomes of Financial Analysis NPV （Billion rand）

15%

Discount rate (%)

12%

10%

8%

40 30 20 10 0 -10

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Rate of Grant Aid

-20 -30 -40

Note: High estimate Source: Study Team

4. Review of Environmental and Social Aspects 1) Analysis of the Current Environmental and Social Conditions a．Analysis of Current Status The project areas and their surrounding environment have the following general characteristics: ・Geological condition: The ground is generally solid and stable, including the project areas. ・Water resources: The project areas have relatively abundant water resources. ・Air quality: The emissions of transport-related PM10 and NOx have become serious problems. ・Nature reserves: The three route options for this project have the possibility of passing through three Ramsar sites. In-depth study shall be carried out in the next phase.

Impacts of the existing transport conditions on the environment and society are air pollution, emissions of greenhouse gases, and frequent occurrence of road traffic accidents.

b．Future Forecast (if the project is not implemented) From an environmental point of view, if this project is not implemented, air pollution is expected to further deteriorate. From a social point of view, if this project is not implemented, the tremendous increase in road traffic volume is expected to cause even more traffic accidents.

2) Environmental and Social Benefits from the Implementation of the Project a．Benefits to the Environment Assuming Route B or Route C is selected for this project, the annual reduction in the emissions of NOX from the entire highway N3 in 2025, the year when the completed high-speed railway line is

Summary-14

opened for service, is expected to be 3,178 to 7,240 t, the reduction of PM10 75 to 385 t, and the reduction of CO2 923,497～1,750,575t, as compared to a scenario that does not have a high-speed railway. However, it is necessary to deduct the pollution emissions of polluting gases and greenhouse gases from the increased portion of fossil fuel consumed for electricity generation from the abovementioned results.

3) Benefits to the Society Benefits to the society are three folds: reduction in traffic accidents, increase in transportation modes for residents, and increase in employment opportunities for local residents.

a．Impacts on the Environment and Society from the Implementation of the Project There is basically no problem that cannot be resolved or controlled with regarding to impacts from the implementation of this project, after reviewing the various items related to anti-pollution measures, natural environment, and social environment. Above all, it is necessary to obtain detailed confirmation of the following items in the next-phase study. ・Anti-pollution measures:

3 items including water quality, waste, and noise/vibration

・Natural environment: possibility of the routes’ impact on the three Ramsar sites and mitigation measures ・Social environment: possibility of the need for resettlement, number of households to be relocated, impact on the heritage resources and landscape

(4) Implementation Schedule According to the NATMAP being formulated by South Africa’s Ministry of Transport, the Johannesburg–Durban High-speed Railway is slated to open in 2020 (including partial service). The South African government is also planning to propose Durban as a candidate site for the 2020 Olympics. Based on the above and in consideration of a realistic construction schedule and a financing plan, the following targets have been set for the start of service: 1) Phase 1 King Shaka International Airport–Durban–Pietermaritzburg section (route length of approximately 100 km): Open for service in 2020 2) Phase 2 Pietermaritzburg–Johannesburg section (route length of approximately 500 km): Open for service in 2025

Summary-15

Table 11 Implementation Schedule Year Major Items

Phase

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Phase1

Opening

2024

2025

2026

Phase 2

1 METI Study 2 Detail FS 3 Financial Arrangement 4 Procurement Prosess of Consultant 5 Detail Design and Tender Document 6 Procurement Process of Contractor 1 7 Land Acquisiton and Compensation 2 1 8 Construction Works 2 1 9 Traial Operation 2 1 10 Operation 2

Source: Study Team

(5) Feasibility for Implementation It is feasible to implement the project. There are two reasons.

1. Legal and Financial Constraints that Can be Resolved Implementation of this project is required to comply with the major laws and regulations in South Africa; however, they are not barriers to the implementation of the project. Decisions of the Ministry of Transport and the National Treasury will play an important role with regard to financial constraints. Deepening understanding of the decision-makers on the significance of this project to the South African economy and society, a reasonable financing scheme, and the appeal of the yen loan are all deciding factors.

2. Positive Stances of Other Stakeholders and Investing/Financing Organizations The

stances

of

the

provincial

governments,

implementation

organizations

(candidates),

investing/financing organizations are generally positive. Provincial government has proposed initiatives to coordinate the project with the province’s Corridor Strategy and to expand employment. Provincial government has also proposed initiatives to coordinate the project with the province’s tourism master plan, select candidate stations to connect to the conventional lines, and share financial burden. A candidate for the implementation organization has shown support for promoting this project and has pointed out that the South African government may consider the loan option if cash flow from the project can cover the financing cost and that job creation and other socio-economic development can be expected from the project.

Summary-16

On the other hand, a representative of the government-run financial agency expressed hope that this project will create an opportunity for complete restructuring and improvement of the railway system in South Africa and indicated the possibility for the government-run financial agency to finance or co-finance the project since such large-scale infrastructure project is in line with the bank’s lending principles. Private financial institutions have also indicated the possibility of funding that premised on political support from the government and the project’s economic/financial/environmental viability.

The following measures are necessary for bringing this project to fruition: ・Initiatives to garner the support of the national government (Department of Transport and National Treasury) and provincial governments ・Initiatives to gain the understanding and support of local politicians and residents in areas related to the project ・Explain the job creation prospect of this project and present an action plan for its realization ・Provide the high, mid, and low estimates for the number of passengers, fare, freight volume, and financing scheme ・In-depth study of anti-pollution measures and impacts on the natural and social environments, and implementation of EIA

(6) Technological Advantages of Japanese Companies, etc. 1. Technological Advantages The Japanese Shinkansen holds the impressive record of zero passenger casualties since its launch in 1964 and the delay per train is less than one minute. This shows not only the technological strength of the railway operators but also the affiliated companies in different fields that are supporting the Shinkansen system, including track, electricity, rolling stock, etc.

Table 12 summarized the benefits if the Japanese Shinkansen system is used for this project. It will benefit the project in various ways, including safety, efficiency, low cost, ability to negotiate continuous steep grade, energy efficiency, and so on. The Shinkansen system epitomizes the technological superiority of the Japanese companies.

In particular, this project requires a continuous grade section（20‰）of approximately 30 km long to get through the mountainous areas on its route. Superiority of the Japanese Shinkansen technology can be fully utilized since the EMU high-speed railway excels in the handling of such continuous steep grades.

Summary-17

Table 12 Strengths of Shinkansen System and Benefits when Applied to this Project Strengths of Shinkansen Benefits when applied to this project Excellent safety and reliability The safest and most reliable service in the world is made possible by the excellent element technologies ・Zero passenger casualties in over 47 years of the Shinkansen system. Adopting the Shinkansen since launch of service ・Average delay per train is less than 1 minute system for this project will provide a high-speed railway that has the same level of safety and reliability as the one in Japan. Efficiency, mass transport Even if passenger demand increases as a result of greater economic development in South Africa, the ・High occupancy and high-frequency Shinkansen system can increase transport capacity operation flexibly. ・Large vehicle gauge The large vehicle gauge makes it possible to operate trains with freight containers mounted onboard. Low-cost ground infrastructure Low axle load of the rolling stock reduces burden on the ground infrastructure and lowers maintenance ・Low axle load of the rolling stock ・Ability to negotiate continuous steep grades cost. High acceleration and deceleration performance makes it possible to handle the continuous steep and sharp curves grades on the route of this project. Laborsaving maintenance Use of AC motor in rolling stock, high-speed ・Use of AC motor inspection cars, and mechanizing the maintenance of ・Inspection car, mechanization of facilities save labor and contribute to lower maintenance maintenance cost. Environmental compatibility Balancing the high-speed function and compliance with stringent environmental standards (noise, ・Balance high speed and compliance with vibration, etc.) protects the environment along the stringent environmental standards railway line, contributes to the realization of higher speed in urban areas and tunnels, and lowers construction cost. Energy-efficiency/low environmental load Because the Shinkansen has the lowest energy consumption and lowest CO2 emissions in the world ・Lowest energy consumption in the world during operation, modal shift from road and air transport to the railway will contribute to protection of the global environment. Comfort The comfort resulting from wide seat pit and large space between seats is a great selling point in the ・Wide seat pit, rotatable seats, competition with airplanes. air-conditioning providing excellent amenity Technology for through operation with Although it is necessary to change the gauge of the conventional lines conventional line, use of this technology makes it possible to expand the high-speed railway network in ・Succeeded in changing the gauge of the future at low cost. conventional line Source: Study Team

This project also considers the transport of freight containers. From the perspectives of technological feasibility and demand, it is possible to combine the high-speed railway with container freight trains operating at a medium speed of 160 km/h. In particular, the Super Rail Cargo used by JR Freight in Japan is a freight train with a distributed traction system. It operates at a maximum speed of 130 km/h, same speed as the express passenger trains. EMU using this technology has high chance of combining operation with the high-speed railway.

If Japan’s sophisticated electric train technology is applied to freight transport, it is possible to establish a

Summary-18

new high-speed railway system that can work well with the freight trains. This new combined passenger and freight high-speed railway system can be introduced to countries where passenger demand is relatively low. It will also become a new strength of the Japanese high-speed railway technology.

2. Economic Benefits A certain amount of financial involvement by the government is necessary for this project to materialize. However, since the amount required is huge, it is difficult for the South African government to pay for it from its general budget. In an interview with the South Africa National Treasury, there was a comment that it would be difficult for the project to materialize without some sort of installment plan.

Japan has various tools to help the South African government to implement the project. Yen loan is available for the government to procure funds. For the private sector, there are export credits from JBIC, equity from the Innovation Network Corporation of Japan, financial investment by JICA, and funding from JBIC, and so on.

These tools are effective means to backup the strength of Japanese companies from a financial point of view.

(7) Specific Schedule until Realization of the Project and Risks that May Hinder Its Realization 1. Decision-making Process of the South African Government In the “Strategic Agenda 2010/11-2012/13” formulated based on NATMAP, DOT considers reviewing the project for the construction of high-speed railway in the Johannesburg–Durban section a priority among the strategic issues and is taking specific measures aimed at opening the railway for service in 2020. DOT intends to start the project during the term of President Zuma (5-year term), which will last until 2014.

The preliminary qualification (PQ) for the bidding of the feasibility study and preliminary design of the Johannesburg–Durban High-speed Railway, which is the corridor with the highest priority, was published on November 22, 2010 but it was cancelled soon afterward on November 29. Later on, the Minister of Transport Mr. Sibusiso Ndebele indicated to move forward with the Johannesburg–Durban High-speed Railway project at the end of February 2011.

Summary-19

The following are potential risks that may hinder realization of this project: a．Delay in the implementation of specific measures due to delay in Cabinet approval for NATMAP b．The functions and role of HSRDA (tentative name), to be established under DOT, are not clear at this time c． Delay in the bidding for feasibility study and preliminary design commissioned by DOT

2. Fund Procurement This project is a national project identified in NATMAP, which is being formulated currently, involvement of the national government in financing is believed to be indispensable. Since the early opening proposed by this Study will contribute to the development of the corridor in KwaZulu-Natal province, financial involvement of the provincial government is also expected.

On the other hand, since considerable funds will be needed for this project, various funding sources will be used, including not only government funds but also private funds and the PPP scheme, as in the case of Gautrain, the first PPP railway project in South Africa.

From the above, there are two risks in fund procurement concerning government funds and private-sector funds. a. Delay in making decision on loan/issuance of bonds in the government’s fund procurement b.

For private-sector funds, private investors may not be attracted to the investment if business risks

is not equitably shared.

3. Environmental Impact Assessment Risks from environmental impact assessment that might hamper the implementation of this project are as follows: a. Difficulty or delay in the implementation of environmental impact assessment due to opposition from local residents. b. Delay in the implementation of environmental impact assessment due to review of measures to stave off or mitigate impacts after it has been confirmed that the Ramsar sites will be affected by the project.

Solution for a: it is advisable to obtain the support of the national and provincial governments in advance and hold briefing and discussion sessions with local residents at an early stage in order to gain their trust, understanding, and cooperation.

Solution for b: Selection of Route B will reduce the number of wetlands that might be impacted to only one site (Blesbokspruit) in Gauteng province. Even for this site, the principle is to try to avoid the wetland as much as possible when designing the route and selecting station locations.

Summary-20

4. Land Acquisition The following are two considerations regarding the risks in land acquisition: a.

Over 90% of the land along the railway line is privately owned. It will take considerable amount of time and efforts to negotiate with each of the owners.

b. During the Apartheid era, many blacks were forced to relocate from their original districts of residence to other areas. After abolition of the Apartheid system, many blacks filed land claims trying to get back their land. However, since these areas have already been occupied or owned by other residents or businesses, there are many pending land disputes.

Solution for a: It is advisable to find out the number of owners (who will be the counterparts in negotiation) and the conditions in advance, obtain the support of provincial government in advance, hold briefing and discussion sessions, and start negotiation as soon as possible.

Solution for b: It is advisable to obtain information on disputed land from the Land Claim Commission in advance and design route in such a way as to avoid these areas as much as possible.

(8) Map Showing the Project Locations in South Africa Figure 5 shows locations of the High-speed Railway Project. Figure 5 Locations of Project

0

Source: Study Team

Summary-21

200km

Chapter 1 Overview of South Africa and the Target Sector

Chapter 1 Overview of South Africa and the Target Sector 1

(1) Economic and Financial Conditions of South Africa The following points pertaining to the economy and finance of South Africa are noteworthy: 

Its GDP growth rate has recovered from the effects of Lehman crisis; however, high unemployment rate and wide income disparity are causes for concern.



The decline of manufacturing in the industrial structure is striking. Insufficient distribution capacity and inefficiency in distribution hamper efforts of the manufacturing industry to improve productivity and expand production.



A tendency of demographic shift from various provinces to Gauteng, Western Cape, and KwaZulu-Natal provinces is seen in the last five years.



The ratios of deficits and foreign debts to GDP are both at relatively low levels.



Although the current account in the international balance of payments is in the red, direct investment and securities investment by foreign countries in South Africa have been on the rise, resulting in a positive capital balance. South Africa’s foreign reserves have also turned positive.



Japan’s rankings in South Africa’s export and import hover at 3rd and 4th places, respectively. However, Japan ranks 1st and 2nd, respectively, in terms of growth rate in South Africa’s export and import.



Japan ranks No. 7 among the top ten countries that have direct investment in South Africa.

1. Economic Condition 1) Macro-economic Condition The Republic of South Africa (hereafter “South Africa”) has a nominal GDP of 357.26 billion USD in 2010, ranking 28th in the world, between Argentina (27th) and Iran (29th). The per capita nominal GDP is 7,158 USD, ranking 71st in the world. It is lower than those of Brazil and Russia but higher than those of China and India, among all the BRICS countries (see Figure 1-1). Figure 1-1 Ranking of South Africa in the World’s Per Capita Nominal GDP (2010) USD 12,000 10,816

10,437

10,000 7,158

8,000 6,000

53th

56th

4,382 71st

4,000

93rd

2,000

1,265 134th

0 Brazil

Russia

South Africa

china

Source: IMF “World Economic Outlook” (September 2011 version)

1

India

South Africa had maintained an average GDP growth rate of over 4% annually since 1999, except in 2009 when Lehman collapsed. Specifically, the growth rate was 5.6% in 2007 and 3.7% in 2008. It fell to minus 1.5% in 2009 due to the effects of Lehman’s fall but recovered to 2.8% in 2010. The GDP growth rate is expected to be 3 - 4 % in 2010 - 2012.

Figure 1-2 Changes in South Africa’s GDP and GDP Growth Rates GDP at constant 2005 prices (R billion)

Year-on-year change rate (%)

1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 -

6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Source: Statistics SA

Contributions of various provinces to the GDP clearly show that Gauteng province has an overwhelming presence. Specifically, it contributed 35.2% of South Africa’s GDP in 2008, a 1.5% increase from the 33.7% in 2001. Following Gauteng province, KwaZulu-Natal province ranked second in contributions to the GDP. It contributed 16.5% in 2008 and had maintained similar share for eight years since 2001.

Figure 1-3 Changes in the Contributions of Provinces to South Africa’s GDP 100% 90%

6.6

6.7

6.7

6.6

6.5

6.4

6.4

6.3

6.7

6.6

6.6

6.6

6.5

6.4

6.4

6.3

33.7

34.1

34.1

34.3

34.4

34.7

34.9

35.2

80% Limpopo 70%

M pumalanga Gauteng

60%

North West 50%

6.4

6.2

6.3

6.3

6.3

6.2

6.1

5.9

40%

16.6

16.5

16.4

16.4

16.5

16.5

16.5

16.5

5.2 2.2 8.2

5.2 2.2 8.0

5.1 2.2 8.0

5.1 2.1 7.9

5.1 2.1 7.9

5.0 2.1 7.8

4.9 2.0 7.8

5.0 2.0 7.8

14.4

14.4

14.5

14.7

14.8

14.9

15.0

15.1

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Kwazulu-Natal Free State

30% 20% 10%

Northern Cape Eastern Cape

0%

Source: Statistics SA

2

Western Cape

The inflation rate declined from 11.5% in 2008 to 7.1% in 2009 and 4.3% in 2010. However, it is expected to rise to 5.9% in 2011. Since the state of the macro-economy is still severe, the government’s handling of macro-economic policies attracts attention (see Figure 1-4).

Figure 1-4 Changes in Inflation Rates in South Africa % 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 CPI

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

5.4

5.8

9.1

5.8

1.4

3.4

4.6

7.2

11.5

7.1

4.3

Source: Statistics SA

High unemployment rate and large income gap have, in particular, become problematic for the South African economy and society. The unemployment rate rose from 25.6% in 2000 to 30.4% in 2002. Although it gradually declined to 21.9% in 2008, it has begun to rise again to around 24% since 2009. It is also noteworthy that the official figure announced by the government was calculated based on the unemployed persons who were looking for jobs (involuntary unemployed persons). In reality, the unemployment rate would have been in the 40% range if those who had given up after not being able to find work were included1.

Figure 1-5 Changes in Unemployment Rates in South Africa % 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 Unemployment Rate

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

25.6

29.4

30.4

28.0

26.2

26.7

25.5

22.7

21.9

24.3

24.8

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, (September 2011 version)

1

Interview with Professor Jackie Walters (Chairperson of the Department of Transport and Supply Chain Management, University of Johannesburg)

3

A distinctive phenomenon that accompanies such high unemployment rate is the large income gap. According to the outcomes of a UN study2 in 2000 and a CIA study3 in 2005, South Africa’s Gini Index is 57.8 and 65, respectively. In the CIA study, South Africa’s Gini Index is No. 1 in the world, illustrating the great disparity in incomes.

2) Industries The composition ratio of GDP by industry shows that while the primary (agriculture) and secondary (mining, manufacturing, construction, electricity, gas, and water4) industries accounted for 2.8% and 29.1%, respectively, in 2008 and declined to 2.7% and 28.2% in 2010, the tertiary industries (retail, food, transportation, telecommunication, finance, insurance, real estate, government services, other manufacturing, and others) rose from 68.1% to 69.9%. Since manufacturing, the pillar of the secondary sector, shrank considerably from 15% in 2008 to 13.2%, it was found that decrease in the share of this industry sector is mainly caused by the relative decline of the manufacturing industry. On the other hand, the rise in the share of the tertiary sector was mainly due to the expansion of retail, food, and government services.

2 3 4

UNDP “Human Development Report 2006” CIA “The World Factbook - Field Listing - Distribution of family income - Gini index” 6 March 2008 Update Electricity/gas/water can also be classified as tertiary industries.

4

Figure 1-6 Changes in the Composition of South Africa’s GDP by Industry 100% 90% 80%

10.1

9.2

9.6

5.2

5.7

5.7

13.2

14.2

14.5

Other Manufacturing

70% 60% 50%

19.4

Tertiary

Tertiary

Industry

Industry

Industry

68.1%

19.5

69.2%

19.2

8.3

8.3

11.9

12.3

12.6

30%

2.0 3.2

2.5 3.6

2.5 3.5

20%

15.0

Secondary Industry

Secondary

13.8

29.1%

10% 0%

Government Service

Tertiary

8.3

40%

Others

Industry

69.9%

Manufacturing Secondary

13.2

28.2%

8.3

8.7

2.8

2.7

2.2

2008

2009

2010

Mining

Industry 28.2%

8.9

Finance, Insurance & Real Estate Transport and Communication Wholesales & Retails, Foods & Beverages Electricity, Gas and Water Constuction

Agriculture

Source: Statistics SA

The relative decline of manufacturing in the South African economy is related to the issues below. As pointed out by the South African researchers, resource processing accounts for an overwhelming portion of South Africa’s manufacturing. The production facilities of many resource-processing companies are located near the resource sites, which are characterized by decentralized production bases and long distances from ports and harbors. However, due to insufficient capacity of the infrastructure facilities and inefficiency, the distribution infrastructure has become a bottleneck in the transport of goods to domestic and overseas markets, deterring improvement in productivity and expansion of the manufacturing industry5. The industrial structures of Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal provinces—both contribute considerably to the South African economy and are related to this project—have the following characteristics: Share of the tertiary sector in the industrial structure of Gauteng province is 73% as of 2010, which was higher than the share of the tertiary sector in the abovementioned national GDP. It was 3% higher than the

5

Johannes Fedderke and Witness Simbanegavi, School of Economics and ERSA, University of Cape Town, “South African

Manufacturing Industry Structure and its Implications for Competition Policy,” December 15, 2008.

5

70% in 2008, showing an upward trend. Share of the secondary industries, on the other hand, declined from 30% in 2008 to 27% in 2009 and 2010. This is due to the reduced weight of the manufacturing industry. The decline of manufacturing is evident in this province. It is also noteworthy that the share of the primary sector, mainly agriculture and fishery, is near zero.

Figure 1-7 Changes in the Composition Ratios of Gauteng Province’s GDP by Industry 100%

90% 80%

17

4

Tertiary 26

Industry

4

Tertiary 27

70%

60%

18

General government services

4

70%

50%

18

Industry

Tertiary 27

73%

Industry 73%

Transport and communication 9

9

9

14

14

Wholesale & retail trade; hotels & restaurants Construction

4 2

Electricity and water

40% 14 30%

4 2

Secondary

20%

4 2

Industry 22 10% 0%

Community, social and other personal services Finance, real estate and business services

30%

Secondary

Secondary

Industry 19

27%

19

Industry 27%

20 2008

20 2009

20 2010

Source: Website of KwaZulu-Natal Province Department of Economic Development and Tourism

The industrial structure of KwaZulu-Natal has similar characteristics. Share of the tertiary industries in 2010 is not as high as that of Gauteng province but 68% is still an overwhelming ratio. The secondary and primary industries (agriculture and fishery) are 28% and 4%, respectively, both are on a downward trend compared to 2008.

6

Figure 1-8 Changes in the Composition Ratios of KwaZulu-Natal Province’s GDP by Industry

100% 12

13

13

6

6

6

General government services

80% 20

60%

Tertiary

Industry

68%

68%

14

14

14

14

3 2

3 2

Secondary

Secondary

Industry

Industry

22

30%

0%

Tertiary

Industry

14

24

20

65%

3 2 20%

Tertiary

Industry

13

40%

20

Transport and communication Wholesale & retail trade; hotels & restaurants Construction Secondary

22

28%

Community, social and other personal services Finance, real estate and business services

Electricity and water

Industry 28%

1 5

1 4

1 4

2008

2009

2010

Source: Website of KwaZulu-Natal Province Department of Economic Development and Tourism

3) Population The population of South Africa increased from 44,520,000 persons in 2000 to 50,590,000 persons (estimate) in 2011, an average growth of 1.17% in the last eleven years.

7

Figure 1-9 Changes in the Population of South Africa Million 52 51 50 49 48 47 46 45 44 43 42 41

2000 2001

2002 2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Population 44.52 45.03 45.54 46.01 46.46 46.89 47.39 48.36 48.91 49.46 49.99 50.59

Note: The 2011 data is an estimate. Source: Statistics SA

Of the estimated population of 50,590,000 persons, 79% are black people, 9% are white or other colored people, and 3% are Indians or other Asians. The black people are slightly less than 80% of the whole population.

Figure 1-10 Ratio of Estimated Population in 2011 by Population Group

Indian/Asian, 1,275(3%)

White 4,566(9%)

Unit: thousand persons

Coloured 4,540(9%)

African 40,206(79%)

Source: Statistics SA

Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal provinces account for 23% and 22%, respectively, of the population in the nation’s nine provinces. They have the highest percentages of population.

8

Figure 1-11 Percentages of Population in South Africa by Province

NC 2%

NW 6%

WC 10%

EC 14% FS 5%

ML 7%

GT 23%

LP 11% KZN 22%

Source: Statistics SA

Population flow between the provinces from 2006 to 2011 has the following characteristics: specifically, the population of various provinces has the tendency to gravitate toward the three provinces of Gauteng, West Cape, and KwaZulu-Natal. The net inflows of population (outcome after deducting outflow from inflow) to the three provinces during this period were 367,000, 96,000, and 1,422 persons, respectively. In particular, the concentration of population to Gauteng province is significant. This is due to the existence of Johannesburg, the nation’s largest industrial and commercial city, and two large and important harbour cities, Cape Town and Durban.

Figure 1-12 Inflow and Outflow of Population of Each Province (2006 – 2011) person 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 -100,000 -200,000 -300,000

EC

FS

GT

KZN

LP

ML

NC

NW

WC

Out-migration 329,714 118,640 308,063 196,933 238,545 164,905 60,585 179,462 110,937 114,899 92,748 675,139 198,355 96,117 120,746 42,993 160,294 206,493 In-migration Net migration -214,815 -25,892 367,076 1,422 -142,428 -44,159 -17,592 -19,168 95,556

Source: Statistics SA

9

2. Financial Condition 1) Revenue and Expenditure The treasury budget of the South African government was in the black two years in a row in FY2006–2007 and FY2007–2008. Due to the implementation of expansionist fiscal policy from FY2008–2009, the budget ended up with a deficit of 27.2 billion rand. The deficit amount increased to 167.5 billion rand in FY2009–2010. Even in FY2010–2011, a deficit of 143.4 billion rand remained.

Figure 1-13 Changes in the Revenues and Expenditures of South Africa (2004–2011) R billion 1,000.0 800.0 600.0 400.0 200.0 – -200.0 -400.0 Budget revenue Budget expenditure Budget balance

2004/05

2005/06

2006/07

2007/08

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

347.9 368.5 -20.6

411.7 416.7 -4.9

481.2 470.2 11.0

560.8 541.4 19.4

608.8 636.0 -27.2

579.7 747.2 -167.5

666.6 809.9 -143.4

Source: Department of National Treasury, South Africa

Figure 1-14 Changes in the Ratios of South Africa’s Treasury Budget to GDP (2004–2011) R billion

%

3,000.0

2.0 1.0

2,500.0

0.0 2,000.0

-1.0

1,500.0

-2.0 -3.0

1,000.0

-4.0

500.0

-5.0 -6.0

– -500.0

-7.0 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11

-20.6 Budget balance Gross domestic product (GDP) 1,449.0 Ratio of budget balance to GDP -1.4 (%)

-4.9 1,613.8 -0.3

11.0 1,832.8 0.6

Source: Department of National Treasury, South Africa

10

19.4 2,078.8 0.9

-27.2 2,313.0 -1.2

-167.5 2,442.6 -6.9

-143.4 2,666.9 -5.4

-8.0

Nonetheless, deficit ratios of the three abovementioned fiscal years to GDP are 1.2%, 6.9%, and 5.4%, not a serious problem compared to the developed countries and other emerging economies in the world. From FY2010–2011, the South African government began to switch to a policy that is not as expansionist. The deficit is expected to come down.

2) International Balance of Payments The international balance of payments of South Africa has the following characteristics when it is broken down into three items: trade balance, current account, and capital balance. The trade balance shifted from a deficit in 2008 to a surplus of 270 million USD in 2009, which further increased to 384 million USD in 2010. However, the current account continued to run a deficit as a result of flagging capital inflow to all balances on services, income, and transfer account. Nevertheless, due to the continued excess inflow of inward direct investment and securities investment, the capital balance continued to expand to 11.63 billion, 13.36 billion, and 14.36 billion USD in the last three years. As a result, the foreign reserves turned from negative in 2008 to positive in 2009 and 2010.

Figure 1-15 Changes in South Africa’s International Balance of Payments (2008–2010) USD Million 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 -5,000 -10,000 -15,000 -20,000 -25,000 Trade Account Current Account Capital Account Change in Foreign Reserve

2008

2009

2010

-4,304 -19,594 11,632 -7,962

268 -11,455 13,359 1,904

3,839 -10,116 14,355 4,239

Source: South African Reserve Bank, “Quarterly Bulletin”

3) Foreign Debt Amount South Africa’s foreign debt rose from 69.4 billion rand in 2004 to 97.3 billion rand in 2008, and after that it went all the way down to 38 billion rand in 2010. To start with, South Africa’s foreign debt to GDP ratio was not more than 4.6% even when it was at its peak in 2007, and it fell further down to 1.4% in 2010. It is rather low from an international perspective.

11

Figure 1-16 Changes in South Africa’s Foreign Debt Amounts (2004–2011) R Million

％

120,000

6.0

100,000

5.0

80,000

4.0

60,000

3.0

40,000

2.0

20,000

1.0

–

2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11

69,405 Outstanding Foreign Debt 4.8 Foreign debt to GDP ratio（％ ）

66,846 4.1

82,581 4.5

96,218 4.6

97,268 4.2

74,278 3.0

–

38,048 1.4

Source: Department of National Treasury, South Africa

3．Economic Ties with Japan The economic ties between South Africa and Japan are reflected in two aspects: trade relation and investment relation.

1) Trade Relation with Japan The total amount of South African exports on a customs clearance basis was 511.6 billion rand in 2010. Breaking down by major exporting country, exports to China were 59.3 billion rand. China is South Africa’s No. 1 trading partner. It accounted for 10.1% of all of South Africa’s exports. On the other hand, exports to Japan were 46.9 billion rand, accounting for 8% of South Africa’ exports. Although Japan is ranked No. 3, exports to Japan had the highest growth, an increase of 36% from 2009.

In terms of imports, China also took the top place. Imports from China in 2010 reached 80.9 billion rand, accounting for 13.9% of all of South Africa’s imports. Imports from Japan were 31 billion rand, only 5.3% of the total imports. However, its year-over-year growth was 17.9%, second only to India.

As a whole, although Japan currently does not have the top spot in terms of its importance in South Africa’s exports and imports, in terms of growth rate, its importance is on the rise.

12

Table 1-1 South Africa’s Major Exporting Partners (customs clearance basis) Exports (FOB)

China United States Japan Germany United Kingdom India Switzerland The Netherlands Zimbabwe Mozambique Belgium Others Total

2009 Amount (million rand) 47,721.9 41,468.2 34,474.8 31,464.7 25,265.4 17,402.3 21,505.8 17,508.1 13,533.4 13,521.5 10,791.4 236,949.9 511,607.4

2010 Amount (million rand) 59,326.1 51,691.0 46,870.8 42,673.2 26,991.3 21,742.1 17,749.7 16,950.8 15,698.3 13,781.9 13,138.8 260,677.5 587,291.5

Ratio (%) 10.1 8.8 8.0 7.3 4.6 3.7 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.3 2.2 44.4 100.0

Year-over-year growth rate (%) 24.3 24.7 36.0 35.6 6.8 24.9 -17.5 -3.2 16.0 1.9 21.8 10.0 14.8

Source: JETRO Johannesburg Center (Source of original data: South Africa Revenue Service)

Table 1-2 South Africa’s Major Importing Partners (customs clearance basis) Imports (FOB)

China Germany United States Japan Saudi Arabia Iran United Kingdom India France Nigeria Italy Others Total

2009 Amount (million rand) 70,818.2 63,244.3 41,543.7 26,312.5 27,250.9 22,109.5 21,431.7 15,408.0 16,931.6 15,641.7 13,678.0 207,720.3 542,090.4

2010 Amount (million rand) 80,872.4 66,114.1 41,902.5 31,019.2 23,695.3 23,004.3 21,978.6 20,549.1 17,033.5 16,079.9 14,643.7 224,113.6 581,006.2

Ratio (%) 13.9 11.4 7.2 5.3 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.5 2.9 2.8 2.5 38.6 100.0

Year-over-year growth rate (%) 14.2 4.5 0.9 17.9 -13.0 4.0 2.6 33.4 0.6 2.8 7.1 7.9 7.2

Source: JETRO Johannesburg Center (Source of original data: South Africa Revenue Service)

13

Among the goods exported from Japan to South Africa in 2010, industrial products accounted for 97.7%, 85.2% of which were machinery and equipment. In particular, transport equipment accounted for 52% of all exported goods. On the other hand, 59.7% of Japan’s imports from South Africa were nonferrous metal raw materials and most of them are platinum6.

2) Investment Relation with Japan The United Kingdom has consistently been the top investor in South Africa between 2007 and 2009. In 2009 alone, the United Kingdom accounted for 54% of all direct investment from foreign countries. In terms of year-over-year growth rate, however, the Netherlands and China are making great strides. Direct investment by The Netherlands in South Africa more than tripled, increasing from 29 billion rand in 2007 to 91.4 billion in 2009. In the case of China, the increase was over 115 times during the same period, from 480 million rand to 55.8 billion rand.

In this backdrop, Japan’s direct investment in South Africa increased 35% from 12.9 billion in 2007 to 17.5 billion rand in 2009, showing a 2.5%year-over-year growth rate in 2009. Among the top ten foreign countries making direct investment in South Africa, Japan was No. 7.

Table 1-3 Changes in Direct Investments by Foreign Countries in South Africa (Unit: million rand) 2007

2008

2009

Ratio (%)

Year-over-year growth rate (%)

United Kingdom

524,170

342,472

468,031

54.0

36.7

The Netherlands Germany United States China Switzerland Japan Malaysia Luxemburg France Others Total

28,952 41,359 46,346 480 21,338 12,934 2,343 8,569 12,304 53,130 751,925

32,224 46,960 47,165 26,760 29,235 17,036 12,750 8,419 9,228 60,370 632,619

91,414 58,095 55,813 33,981 28,783 17,461 14,566 10,708 10,500 77,312 866,664

10.5 6.7 6.4 3.9 3.3 2.0 1.7 1.2 1.2 8.9 100.0

183.7 23.7 18.3 27.0 - 1.5 2.5 14.2 27.2 13.8 28.1 37.0

Source: South African Reserve Bank, “Quarterly Bulletin”

6

Source: JETRO Johannesburg Center (Source of original data: Japan’s Ministry of Finance “Trade Statistics (Customs Clearance Basis)”

14

(2) Overview of the Project’s Sector The current state of the transport sector in South Africa and the issues it faces are explained below. In particular, the railway faces many issues due to its lack of speediness and punctuality. The following explains the current situation of passenger and freight transport, which is dependent upon road transport.

1．Overview of Transport Sector 1) Overview South Africa has been enjoying continuous economic growth in recent years. Its GDP has been growing at an average rate of over 4% annually, except in 2009 when it was affected by Lehman’s fall. Its population has also grown by more than 1%. As a result, the commodity distribution volume has increased. As shown in Figure 1-17, although the overall volume of rail freight has increased, the transport volume of general cargo within the rail freight has declined, showing that the transport of general cargo has shifted to the roads.

As shown by the fact that railway infrastructure in South Africa is owned and managed by the freight company Transnet, the railway’s emphasis is more on rail freight than on passenger transport. Among the rail freight, the railway’s focus is on transporting iron ore, coal, and other heavy or bulky goods. For the general cargo, the railway has low reliability due to its unpredictable delivery time. For this reason, freight other than bulk goods is transported mainly on roads. Modal shift is a challenge.

On the other hand, except for the suburban areas, passenger transport also relies on automobile. The inter-city passenger railway only operates about one train/d. Since the travel time is longer than that of the automobile (long-distance bus), passenger railway has lost its place as a viable transportation means. Therefore, inter-city transport is in the form of automobile or airplane for business travelers and the wealthy class and long-distance bus or mini-bus for the low-income class.

In addition, as shown in Figure 1-18, commuter transport is also dominated by road transport. During our field survey, the highway between Johannesburg and Pretoria during the morning and evening rush hours was extremely congested. Development of public transport, especially track-based transportation means, is desirable.

15

Figure 1-17 Changes in Rail Freight Volumes All freight

General cargo

Ore

Coal

Source：NATMAP Figure 1-18 Shares of Transport Modes in Commuter Transport

Rail

Othe

Bus Public transport Taxi Walking Automobile Source：NATMAP 2) Railway South Africa’s railway has a total route length of approximately 23,000 km. It has a network of railway lines longer than those of the JR companies in Japan combined. South Africa’s railway is basically the same as Japan’s 1067-mm gauge conventional line. It uses the 1065-mm gauge, known as “Cape Gauge.”

South Africa’s railway administration is handled by TFR (Transnet Freight Rail) for freight transport and PRASA (Passenger Rail Agency of South Africa) for passenger transport.

TFR is an affiliate of Transnet, a public corporation under DPE (Department of Public Enterprises). Transnet is in charge of all freight transport, including rail freight, ports and harbors, pipelines, etc. The railway in South Africa is mainly used for freight transport. TFR is responsible for the transport of rail freight, as well as management of the railway infrastructure and maintenance of rolling stock.

16

Different from TFR, PRASA is a public corporation under the DOT (Department of Transport). It operates Metro Rail for passenger transport in cities, Shosholoza Meyl for long-distance passenger transport, and long-distance bus Autopax.

Metro Rail has dense networks in major cities, such as Johannesburg, Cape Town, and Durban. Metro Rail is similar to the private railways that operate in the suburban areas of Japanese cities. It is convenient and easy to use. However, due to security concerns at stations and onboard the trains, it has become the means of transportation for the lowest income earners. Therefore, it has not been able to attract commuters to shift from automobile. The aging rolling stock and facilities are also a big problem. Currently, plans to replace the whole fleet of 8600 cars and to renovate the stations are being made.

Although Shosholoza Meyl operates long-distance passenger trains between major cities, it has not been able to play the role of a viable transportation means, the reason will be explained later.

In line with the hosting of the 2010 soccer World Cup, Gautrain was opened in June 2010, linking Johannesburg’s international airport and the city center. Gautrain is the first railway project in South Africa built using public-private partnership. The project’s scale was about 26 billion rand, 87% of which were grand aid from the Gauteng provincial government and the remainder was funded by private capital.

It was extended to the capital Pretoria in July 2011 and the total length of the route became 76 km. At present, the line has completed up to Johannesburg Park Station, the big terminal for the conventional line. However, due to water leakage in the tunnel, it was not able to pass the safety inspection; thus, opening of the whole line for service has been delayed.

The railway system was installed by Bombardier. It is similar to a high-speed railway with the following feature: standard gauge, AC 25kV electrification, maximum speed of 160 km/h, aluminium cars, centralized control using ATC and CTC, etc. Figure 1-19 Major Railway Network

Johannesburg

Cape Town

Durban

Source：NATMAP 17

3) Road Transport South Africa’s road network is made up of national routes and highways between major cities, as shown in Figure 1-20. Although some of the highways are toll roads, they are basically free. Even the national routes, the speed limit is as high as 80–100 km/h. In our field survey, we found that the roads were relatively well maintained. We also confirmed that construction was being carried out to increase road width, improve road alignment, etc.

The major cities Johannesburg and Durban are linked by National Route N3 via Pietermaritzburg and National Route N2 via Richards Bay. N3 is a highway with two lanes each way. During our field survey, we saw many large-size trailer trucks and long-distance buses passing through.

Figure 1-20 Major Road Network

Johannesburg N３

Durban

Source: NATMAP 4) Air Routes The air routes, as shown in Figure 1-21, link major cities with Johannesburg. In particular, the Johannesburg–Durban and Johannesburg–Cape Town routes are important domestic routes in South Africa. We were able to confirm that there are flights between Johannesburg and Durban at intervals of 15–30 minutes, depending on the hour.

18

Figure 1-21 Major Air Route Network

Johannesburg

Cape Town

Durban

Source: NATMAP

5) Ports and Harbors Figure 1-22 shows the major ports and harbors in South Africa. Richards Bay is the world’s largest coal embarkation port and Saldanha is an embarkation port for iron ore. Both ports are connected to the mines inland by railways. Durban and Cape Town are large container ports. Durban, in particular, is the largest container port in South Africa. It has strong link with the economic center Johannesburg.

Figure 1-22 Major Ports and Railway Network

Johannesburg

Richards Bay

Saldanha

Durban

Source: NATMAP

Cape Town

19

2. Transport Networks and Traffic Volumes 1) Railway Shosholoza Meyl, an affiliated company of PRASA, provides long-distance passenger railway services between cities. There are only 3.5 million passengers/y using the long-distance intercity trains offered by PRASA. The number hovers at a low level of 2.5% of the overall traffic volume. The reasons are various. It takes much longer time to travel by train than by car between all the cities. The railway offers only one to two round trips a day. For example, it takes about 6 hours by car between Johannesburg and Durban. Since the railway takes as many as 15 hours, it has not been considered a viable transportation means. The traffic volume between Johannesburg and Durban is 9.4 million/y. Railway users amount to 330,000/y, a mere 3.5% share.

Rail freight is handled by TFR (Transnet Freight Rail). The total freight volume is 180 million t/yr. General cargo accounts for 80 millions t/y, coal 70 million t/y, and minerals 30 million t/y.

The freight trains transporting coal operate between Ermelo in the inland and Richards Bay on the Indian Ocean coast. It is about 2.4 km long, made up of 200 of the 80-ton freight cars hauled by six electric locomotives.

The dedicated freight line between Sishen in the inland, where the iron ore mines are located, and the Saldanha port on the Atlantic Ocean coast is 861 km long. It uses single-phase AC 50kV electrification, which is rare in the world. The trains are as long as 4 km, made up of 341 of the 100-ton cars hauled by three coupled electric locomotives.

Of the total freight volume in the Johannesburg–Durban section, road transport accounts for 33.5 million t/y and the railway accounts for 14 million t/y. Although the container freight volume is estimated to be 5.83 million t/y, the transport volume by railway is only 430,000 t/y. The share of freight transported on roads is extremely high. The reasons are various. The trains are often delayed, caused by failure of the locomotives or equipment, theft of cables, etc. The date of arrival for delivery is unpredictable. Furthermore, container transport takes many days (7–10 days) because of inefficient cargo handling at the Johannesburg and Durban terminals.

On the other hand, reflecting the policy intention of the South African government to promote modal shift from road transport to rail transport in recent years, TFR established the National Operations Center for Railways in Johannesburg’s Parktown, making it possible to monitor the operation conditions of domestic and international trains passing through South Africa in real time. Furthermore, TFR also increased the number of trains in the Johannesburg–Durban section from three to 16/d. Policies promoting modal shift are being implemented. The Gauteng Freight Ring, consisting of five container freight bases, is being planned for the Johannesburg area. A new dedicated container port utilizing the abolished site of the former airport is planned for Durban.

20

2) Road Transport South Africa’s road network is well developed. It connects the major cities by national routes and highways. The freight transport volume by the road transport sector in South Africa reaches 870 million t/y.

Above all, Gauteng province boasts a road network that has the highest traffic volume on the African continent. Since most of South Africa’s freight transport volume by road passes through Gauteng province, it is an important hub not only for South Africa but also for the southern African region.

In particular, the National Route N3 between Johannesburg and Durban is the most heavily-traveled freight transport corridor in South Africa. It is a major transport section. The daily traffic volume of automobile on N3 is 5000–10,000 vehicles. Some sections between Durban and Pietermaritzburg have over 50,000 vehicles/d. However, our field survey found that the overall traffic flow was smooth.

Our field survey also found that tankers and large trailers mounted with containers drove by frequently, showing that distribution is dependent upon road transport. As explained earlier, road transport accounts for 33.5 million tons of the total freight volume of 47.5 million t/y in the Johannesburg–Durban section. Of the 5.83 million tons of the container freight volume, 5.4 million tons are transported by trucks. For passenger transport as well, of the 9.4 million passengers, 6.13 millions are transported on road, showing heavy reliance on road transport.

Several private travel agencies operate long-distance buses, linking Johannesburg with major cities in the countries, such as Cape Town, Durban, etc. For the Johannesburg–Durban section, five travel agencies combined offer about 20 long-distance bus trips/d. We were able to confirm the operation of two-storied buses and buses equipped with toilets during our field survey. The travel time is 7–8 hours.

There are also mini-buses with occupancy for about ten passengers operating long distance between Johannesburg and Durban. Through local interviews, we found that the fare is low, at about 50 rand.

3) Airplane The OR Tambo International Airport (ORTIA) in Johannesburg, Gauteng province is famous as an airport handling one of the highest air cargo volumes in the African continent. Currently there is a plan to utilize this advantage to construct an airport industrial complex as a duty-free zone for the manufacture of high value-added products. Annually, there are 17 million travellers utilizing this airport and 105,000 flights arriving at this airport.

Besides the OR Tambo International Airport, Johannesburg also has the Lanseria Airport. For Durban, the King Shaka International Airport on the north side (approximately 30 km to the north) of the city just opened for service in May 2010. In addition to domestic flights, it also has four regular direct flights going

21

to Dubai, Swaziland, Mozambique, and Mauritius. The new airport is expected to not only facilitate the province’s domestic tourism but also invigorate its economy.

There are approximately 40 flights/d between Johannesburg and the King Shaka International Airport. During our field survey, we were able to confirm that there were flights departing and arriving at 15–30 minute intervals depending on the hour. Presently, since there is no other high-speed transport means other than the airplanes, the utilization rate of the airlines is quite high. The flights are full on the weekends. There are 2.94 million air passengers annually, about 8000 air passengers a day.

4) Ports and Harbors The Port of Durban is said to be the largest container port in the southern hemisphere. It has 59 berths. Every year, as many as 4000 commercial vessels berth here. The port handles approximately 1 million TEU of container freight, accounting for 61% of the country’s total container freight. In addition, it also handles two-thirds of the country’s imported vehicles, 65% of total sugar export, and 44% of the total consolidated cargo.

On the other hand, Richards Bay, which was originally built as a port exclusively for the handling of coal transported by dedicated coal railway from the northern part of KwaZulu-Natal province and Mpumalanga province, still handles mainly coal but it has also become multi-purpose. The port has capacity to handle 80 million tons of freight annually and 72 million tons of which is coal. It also has storage capacity for 6.7 million tons of freight. Richards Bay is South Africa’s largest port for bulk cargo. It is also the world’s largest coal exporting terminal.

5) Conclusion Table 1-4 shows the travel time and fare by transportation mode in the Johannesburg–Durban section. According to local interviews, the bus fare of some unscheduled mini-buses can be just about 50 rand. The railway is actually taking about 15 hours because of delay. It cannot compete with road transport in terms of punctuality, travel time, and ticket fare. As a result, the transport of both passengers and freight is dependent upon the roads. The railway ends up specializing in the transport of bulk cargo. Besides the lines used for the transport of coal and minerals, the rest of the lines are lagging behind in modernization.

However, as shown in Table 1-5 and Table 1-6, the overall demand in the Johannesburg–Durban section is tremendous. The potential demand for railway in both passenger and freight transport is believed to be high. By improving the railway, its original benefits of punctuality and speediness are likely to attract modal shift from roads and air transport.

22

Table 1-4 Comparison of Travel Time and Fare by Transportation Mode in the Johannesburg–Durban Section Transportation Mode

Travel Time (H)

Fare (R)

Airplane（LCC）

3.5

750

Airplane (regular)

3.5

1250

7 7 7 9 9–11 9

1100 550 300 180 140 180

14

90

14

190

14

870

Private vehicle (total cost) Private vehicle (total cost) Private vehicle (fuel, toll only) Mini-bus (regular) Mini-bus (unscheduled) Highway bus Railway (PRASA) Economy class Railway (PRASA) Tourist class Railway (PRASA) Premium class Source: NATMAP

Remarks Flight time (1H)＋Airport access time Flight time (1H)＋Airport access time 2 passengers 4 passengers 2 passengers

Trip time (8H)＋Access time Trip time (13H)＋Access time Trip time (13H)＋Access time Trip time（13H）＋Access time

Table 1-5 Passenger Transport Volume in the Johannesburg–Durban Section (one day round trip) (person) Airplane

Road

Railway

Total

8,000

17,000

900

25,900

Source: Study Team

Table 1-6 Freight Transport Volume in the Johannesburg–Durban Section (one day round trip) (ton) Road

Railway

Total

Total freight volume

92,000

38,000

130,000

Container

15,000

1,200

16,200

Source: Study Team

23

(3) Condition of Target Areas The following gives an overview of the target areas and their security situation. The target areas include the two provinces of Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal, among the four provinces along the high-speed railway, and the two cities of Johannesburg and Durban.

1. Overview of Target Areas The topography of South Africa is divided into the coastal areas and a plateau in the inland that reaches an altitude of 1700 meters. Johannesburg, the No. 1 city and the economic and political center of South Africa, is situated on this plateau. South Africa’s No. 2 city Durban is located on the coast of the Indian Ocean. Due to its proximity to Johannesburg, the two cities have close economic ties. The Johannesburg–Durban section has high volumes of passenger and freight transport. It is an important trunk line in South Africa.

2. Provinces (4 provinces) Related to the Project As shown in Figure 1-23, the local administrative areas of South Africa include the following nine provinces; Western Cape, Northern Cape, Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, Free State, North West, Gauteng, Mpumalanga, Limpopo.

Figure 1-23 Provinces in the Republic of South Africa Gauteng

Limpopo Mpumalanga North West

Free State

Northern Cape KwaZulu-Natal Eastern Cape Western Cape

The four provinces related to this project are Gauteng, Mpumalanga, Free State, and KwaZulu-Natal. Table 1-7 shows the natural and social conditions of these four provinces.

24

Table 1-7 Overview of the Four Provinces Gauteng Province

Item Provincial capital

Johannesburg

Population

Pietermaritzburg

Mpumalanga Province Nelspruit

Free State Province Bloemfontein

Approx. 10.45 million

Approx. 10.26 million

Approx. 3.64 million

Approx. 2.77 million

35.2

16.5

6.3

5.0

Contributions to GDP (%) Major cities along the high-speed railway routes (candidates) (population: 10,000 persons)

KwaZulu-Natal Province

Johannesburg （389） Tshwane（235） Heidelberg (7)

Durban（347） Vryheid（15） Ulundi (3)

Secunda (4) Ermelo (4)

Harrismith（10） Villiers (2)

Piet Retief（13）

Richards Bay（25） Newcastle（42） Pietermaritzburg（60） Ladysmith（23）

Source: NATMAP, etc. Among the four provinces related to the project, Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal provinces far exceeded the other provinces in both GDP and population. They are the important provinces for this project. The following is an overview of the two provinces:

1) Gauteng Province Gauteng province has largest economy in South Africa. It is the province where the largest city Johannesburg and the capital Pretoria are located.

Gauteng province is situated in the northeastern part of South Africa. It shares borders with Mpumalanga province in the east, North West province in the west, Limpopo province in the north, and Free State province in the south. It is an inland province surrounded by these four provinces. While Gauteng province has the smallest area of national land (17,000 km2, equivalent to 1.4% of the country’s land area), the scales of its GDP (571.8 billion rand, equivalent to 34.9% of the 2010 national GDP) and population (11.328 million people as of 2011, 22.39% of the country’s total population) are the largest in the country. Besides the capital Pretoria and Johannesburg, where the provincial government is located, Gauteng province also has two cities: Tshwane and Ekurhuleni and three districts: Sedibeng, West Rand, and Metsweding.

The financial services and manufacturing of Gauteng have become an important existence in the country. The top three sectors of Gauteng’s GDP are financial and real estate services, manufacturing, and general government services, accounting for 27%, 19%, and 18%, respectively. The third sector industries account for over 70% of the province’s GDP, showing the sector’s overwhelming importance.

25

However, even Gauteng, the economic center of South Africa, is facing the problems of declining manufacturing and rising unemployment. As mentioned in Chapter 1 (1), the percentage of manufacturing in the province’s GDP dropped 3 points from 22% in 2008 to 19% in 2010. On the other hand, the unemployment rate rose from 26.9% in the second quarter of 2010 to 28.2% in the second quarter of 2011. The rise in unemployment rate is believed to be caused by a decrease in employment opportunities as a result of flagging manufacturing. The backdrop to stagnant manufacturing is due to the problems of aging distribution infrastructure, irrational practices, and inefficiency, etc.

Table 1-8 Changes in South Africa’s Unemployment Rates by Province (Unit: %) Province 2010 Q2 2011 Q1 WC 21.8 22.2 EC 27.9 26.9 NC 29.9 31.3 FS 27.8 27.9 KZN 20.9 20.3 NW 27.9 25.0 GT 26.9 26.9 ML 27.7 30.8 LP 22.4 19.3 National average 25.2 25.0 Source: Statistics South Africa Quarterly Labour Force Survey

2011 Q2 21.8 28.9 28.8 28.2 20.3 27.3 28.2 30.4 21.1 25.7

The Gauteng provincial government is currently taking part in the two steering committees for passenger high-speed railway and freight high-speed railway for the high-speed railway plan. The policy of the Gauteng provincial government is to promote Ship-to-Rail freight transport (especially container transport) to facilitate modal shift from road transport to rail. To this end, the Gauteng Freight Ring, which includes five container freight bases, is being planned for the Johannesburg area.

2) KwaZulu-Natal Province KwaZulu-Natal province is the province where South Africa’s No. 2 city Durban is located. The provincial capital is Pietermaritzburg.

KwaZulu-Natal is a coastal province in the eastern part of South Africa. It shares borders with various provinces and a country, including Mpumalanga in the north, Free State and the country Lesotho in the west, and Eastern Cape in the southwest direction. The province has 93,000 km2, which is equivalent to 7.7% of the national land. On the other hand, its GDP in 2010 is 267.2 billion rand, which is 16.3% of the national GDP. Its population as of 2011 is 10.819 million persons, accounting for 21.39% of the country’s total population. Both its GDP and population are No. 2 in the country, second only to Gauteng province. Besides Pietermaritzburg, where the provincial government is housed, other major cities of the province include Durban, Ulundi, Eshowe, Newcastle, Richards Bay, etc.

26

The rail freight transport network of KwaZulu-Natal province plays an important role in the freight transporting system linking South Africa and its surrounding countries. At present, there are four trunk railway lines and one branch line in the province, transporting a total of approximately 20 million tons of general cargo. The four trunk railway lines are: Durban – Volksrust, Ladysmith –Van Reenen – Harrismith, Glencoe–Vryheid, and Durban–Golela–Swaziland. The branch line runs in the Durban–Port Shepstone–Simuma section. There is also a dedicated railway line for transporting coal to Richards Bay. Since over 7 million tons of the general cargoes have their origins and destinations outside of KwaZulu-Natal province or outside of South Africa (Swaziland), they are just passing through KwaZulu-Natal.

The industrial structure of KwaZulu-Natal also has characteristics similar to those of Gauteng province. Manufacturing and the financial and real estate services are important sources of the province’s revenue, accounting for 22% and 20% of GDP, respectively. The fact that the third sector industries account for almost 70% of the province’s GDP is also similar to Gauteng province. However, unlike Gauteng province where the financial and real estate services have overwhelming weight, their importance in KwaZulu-Natal is

only

secondary

to

manufacturing.

Furthermore,

the

government’s

general

services,

transportation/telecommunication, and retail/hotel/food have relatively high shares. Agriculture also maintains a small share of 4%. Therefore, KwaZulu-Natal presents a more balanced picture compared to Gauteng province.

However, KwaZulu-Natal also sees a decline in the share of the manufacturing industry. Although its unemployment rate is not as high as that of Gauteng province, it is still high at 20.3% in the second quarter of 2011.

The population along the railway line in the Pietermaritzburg–Durban section in KwaZulu-Natal is high. It is a section that can expect passengers to use the railway for commuting. In particular, commuters can also be expected from the many English mission schools along the railway line in the Pietermaritzburg–Mooi River section.

After the King Shaka International Airport was opened for service in May 2010, the former airport site was abolished. There is a plan to build a new port exclusively for containers in this former airport site to move the handling of container freight here from the Port of Durban.

3. Cities Related to the Project 1) Johannesburg Johannesburg is the capital of Gauteng province. It is the biggest city in the country, with population of approximately 3.9 million people. Including the suburbs, its population reaches 7.5 million, making Johannesburg No. 1 in South Africa and No. 4 in Africa. It is situated on the highland at an altitude of 1,753 meters. Its highest temperature is about 26ºC even in the summer.

27

Gautrain was opened in Johannesburg in time for the soccer World Cup last year. It connects the airport with the city center, operating at a maximum speed of 160 km/h on standard gauge. In July 2011, Gautrain was extended to the capital Pretoria, resulting in a total length of 76 km.

Metro Rail, operated by PRASA, has quite a dense network of urban railway lines. Despite its convenience and good use condition, the lack of security at stations and onboard trains is a serious concern.

The bus network in the city of Johannesburg is well developed. Gautrain also operates special buses. In addition, there are quite a number of mini-buses (shared taxis) that can be seen carrying about ten passengers. They serve as feeder transport and their usage rate is high. During our route survey, we saw mini-buses operating in regional cities as an urban and intercity transportation means. They can also be seen operating long distance, such as between Johannesburg and Durban.

2) Durban Durban is a populous city, after Johannesburg. Together with the suburbs, it has approximately 3.5 million people, including many Indian immigrants.

Durban is also developed as a resort area. It was also one of the cities hosting last year’s World Cup. There is a plan to make it a candidate site for hosting the 2020 Olympics.

The Port of Durban is one of the biggest ports in Africa and is an important outer harbor. Since it is close to Johannesburg, it maintains the highest volume of freight handling in South Africa as a major gateway.

Similar to Johannesburg, Durban also has a Metro Rail urban railway network. Although the security condition seems to be better than that of Johannesburg, it has nevertheless become the transportation means of the lowest income class. Aging of the rolling stock and facilities is a serious problem.

4. Security Ensuring safety at the railway stations and onboard trains is an important issue. During our field survey, we were able to confirm the existence of many uniformed and plain-clothes security guards at terminal stations, such as Johannesburg. Since ensuring safety is the top priority for Gautrain, it allocates about ten security guards to each station and two to ride on the trains. In recent years, there are frequent thefts of electric cables from the railway track. We found through local interviews that such incidents occur about once a week. Even Gautrain had to stop service twice due to cable thefts. High crime rate is the result of an unemployment rate of over 25% and low incomes. The government of South Africa is making efforts to secure employment and create jobs through various new businesses.

28

Chapter 2 Study Methodology

Chapter 2 Study Methodology 2

(1) Contents of Study This study examines the feasibility of using the Shinkansen system as the basis for the construction of a high-speed railway in the Johannesburg–Durban section. The contents of the study are as follows:

1. Sector Study Information on the economy, transport policy, railway development plan, and high-speed railway plan was collected and analyzed.

2. Route Plan The routes and stations are planned for the Johannesburg–Durban section based on the collected information on geography, climate, geology, etc. and the field surveys.

3. Demand Forecast The existing traffic data were collected and analyzed to forecast the demand of passengers and freight in the future.

4. Selection of Transport Plan and System The demand and transport capacity were optimized in consideration of the transport service level. The technological standard of high-speed railway was determined based on future demand.

5. Technological specifications Specifications for civil engineering, track, electricity, signaling and telecommunication, rolling stock were formulated.

6. Operation Plan An efficient operation format based on the Shinkansen system was proposed with consideration to the conditions in South Africa.

7. Project Plan The quantity of construction works was calculated, the construction schedule was planned, and the construction cost and train operation cost were calculated.

8. Financial and Economic Assessment of the Project FIRR and EIRR analyses were conducted and financing plans based on public-private partnership were formulated.

9. Environmental and Social Considerations Items that may affect the human health, safety, and the natural environment were verified. Social

29

considerations were examined.

(2) Method and System of Study 1. Method of Study First, we conducted research to find out the economic and financial conditions of South Africa, its economic relationship with Japan, the transport sector, transport networks and transport volumes, and the current state of the areas targeted by the project, followed by analysis of the findings.

Next, we conducted field surveys to identify route options, starting and ending points of the routes, and locations of the stations (including container terminals) and car depots. Based on the results, planar and longitudinal profiles were created. We studied the possibility of adverse effects on the environment and communities (natural environment, living environment) of the route options for the high-speed railway and found out about information and procedures (procedures for EIA, permit approval, land acquisition, etc.) that are necessary to move the project forward.

Based on the inter-regional traffic volumes stated in NATMAP, the National Transport Master Plan being formulated by the South African government, and interviews with multiple freight forwarders, future demand based on the number of railway passengers and the volume of rail freight is estimated using the Four Step Method. Based on the volumes of future demand, we established the service standards for travel time and train frequency using the Shinkansen system as the basis, and prepared a train operation plan. Based on the train operation plan, we optimized the high-speed railway system and freight transport system (civil engineering structures, track, electricity, signaling/telecommunication, depots, and formulation of rolling stock specification), taking into consideration the conditions in South Africa.

30

Figure 2-1 Flowchart of Study Method Analysis of current conditions

Demand forecast

Route and station plans

Urban environment

Train operation plan

Plan for rolling stock/ Car depot

Plan for civil engineering structures

Plan for electricity

Environmental and social consideraations Train operation cost/ maintenance cost

Construction cost, rolling stock cost, land acquisition cost

Economic/ financial analyses

Construction and operation structures

Conclusion and recommendations

Source：Study Team

Based on these specific plans, we calculated the initial costs, including construction cost, rolling stock cost, and land acquisition cost, as well as expenditures, including train operation cost and maintenance cost. We then recommended an implementation schedule for the construction of the high-speed railway and a project implementation system. We reviewed the business scheme (cost-sharing between the private sector and the government) and formulated a financing plan.

Based on the above review, we identified issues that need to be resolved in order to move forward with the construction of the high-speed railway and recommended an action plan.

2. Study System Figure 2-2 shows the implementation system for the study. This study project was conducted jointly by Japan Railway Technical Service (JARTS) and Mitsubishi Research Institute, INC. (MRI). JARTS has developed, planned, and conducted research on a wide range of Shinkansen projects in Japan as well as high-speed railways in many countries. MRI has proven experience in social economic studies, transport planning and survey, and demand forecast.

We have also joined forces with Mitsui & Co. and Mitsui & Co. African Railway Solutions. Thanks to their

31

support, we were able to gain access to the departments in the national and provincial governments of South Africa that are related to high-speed railway and obtain information on the high-speed railway routes.

Furthermore, we hired the Executive Research Associates (Pty) Ltd., a consultant in South Africa, to facilitate local research activities. The consultant was especially helpful in arranging interviews with the national and provincial governments of South Africa and railway personnel, obtaining information materials, and providing guidance in local route surveys, etc.

Figure 2-2 Composition of Survey Team Members

Director of Technology Mr. Kiyoharu TAKAGI

Project Director Mr. Yoshihiro AKIYAMA

MRI International Project Research center, Director Mr. Kazuaki HIRAIAHI

High-speed Railway System Mr. Masahiro WATANABE

Civil Engineering Structures Mr. Kenji OHISHI

Route Planning and Stations Mr. Morito YAMASHITA

Freight Transport Plan Mr. Katsuo FUNAKI

Rolling Stock and Factory Planning Mr. Akihiko KAWASAKI

Electrification Plan Mr. Masahiro SEKINE

Factory Planning Mr. Noriaki WATANABE

Signaling and Telecommunication Mr. Kazumaru SHINOYA

Demand Forecast Mr. Kenichi HORI

Research Ms. Yasuko TAKAYAMA

Economic and Financial Analyses Dr. Poh Soom LIM

Research Mr. Hiroshi ISHIZATO

Environmental and Social Analyses Mr. Yoshihiko KATO

(Note) Red line indicates on-site study member. JARTS : Japan Railway Technical Service MRI

: Mitsubishi Research Institute, INC.

JRTT ：Japan Railway Construction, Transport and Technology Agency Source：Study Team

3. Counterparts South Africa’s Department of Transport, which has comprehensive control over passenger and freight transport on land (railway, automobile), at sea, and in the air, is in charge of the high-speed railway plan. The high-speed railway plan is proposed in NATMAP, the transport master plan being formulated by the Department of Transport. Figure 2-3 shows the structure of the counterparts in South Africa.

32

Figure 2-3 Counterparts in South Africa (Contact Departments and Persons)

Counterpart, Name of organization (department in charge) Department of Transport, The Republic of South Africa

Counterpart, Contact person

Counterpart, Name of contact department

Deputy Director General

NATM AP （National Transport M aster Plan)

Counterpart, Contact person Director, NATMAP

Counterpart, Contact person Secretary to Mr. Situma

Source: Study Team

4. Entities Related to the Project Table 2-1 shows the major entities in South Africa that are related to the high-speed railway project and with which we held meetings during the field surveys.

Table 2-1 Major Project-related Entities in South Africa Classification Central Government

Provincial Government

Railway-related Entities

Organization

Place

Department of Transport (DOT)

Pretoria

Railway Safety Regulator (RSR)

Johannesburg

National Treasury

Pretoria

Department of International Relations and Cooperation (DIRC)

Pretoria

Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA)

Pretoria

Department of Economic Development of Gauteng Provincial Government

Johannesburg

Department of Public Transport, Road and Works of Gauteng Provincial Government

Johannesburg

KwaZulu-Natal Province Department of Agriculture, Environmental Affairs and Rural Development

Pietermaritzburg

Department of Transport Province of KwaZulu-Natal

Pietermaritzburg

Ethekwini Transport Authority

Durban

Transnet Freight Rail (TFR)

Johannesburg

Passenger Rail Agency of South Africa (PRASA)

Johannesburg

Gautrain Management Agency (GMA)

Sandton

Bombela Operating Company

Sandton

Source: Study Team

33

(3) Survey Schedule Figure 2-4 shows the major research activities performed in Japan and South Africa. Due to the need to conduct efficient field surveys within the short periods of stay in South Africa, we made detailed plans for the study in advance and dispatched two separate survey teams (High-speed Railway Route Survey Team and Economic and Financial Analyses and Survey Team) in order to conduct efficient and effective surveys.

Figure 2-4 Study Conducted in Japan and in South Africa 2011 Action Item

Aug

Sep

Oct

2012 Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

（In Japan） 1. Conduct preliminary study ～send questionnaire 2. Examine high-speed railway plan options 3. Examine business scheme 4. Formulate high-speed railway plan (draft) 5. Summarize high-speed railway plan

(In South Africa） 1. Interview officials related to highspeed railway plan and gather information 2. On-site survey of route options 3. Review technical, financial, and environmental issues 4. Final presentation in South Africa （Others ） Report (Japanese and English) P resentation to

Interim

concerned oroganizations

2/20

Final

reporting

presentation

Contracted

in Japan

in South

delivery

Afirica

Main events 12/22 Submit

Final

draft report

presentation in Japan

Source: Study Team

34

Table 2-2 Outcomes of First Field Survey (High-speed Railway Route Survey Team) No.

M

D

W

Departing

Arriving

1 2 3 4

8 8 8 8

20 21 22 23

Sat Sun Mon Tue

5 6

8 8

24 25

Wed Thu

Sandton Sandton

7

8

26

Fri

Sandton

8 9 10

8 8 8

27 28 29

Sat Sun Mon

Johannesburg Newcastle Harrismith

11

8

30

Tue

12

8

31

Wed

Pietermaritzb urg Durban

13

9

1

Thu

14

9

2

15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Narita Johannesburg

Lodging Onboard Sandton Sandton Sandton

Newcastle Harrismith Pietermaritzb urg Durban

Newcastle Harrismith Pietermarit zburg Durban

Durban

Durban

Durban

Richards Bay

Fri

Richards Bay

Richards Bay

Richards Bay Vryheid

Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat

Vryheid

Johannesburg

Johannesburg

Sandton Sandton Sandton Sandton Sandton Sandton Onboard

Narita

Remarks （visits, etc.） In transit Arrival of High-speed Railway Route Survey Team Meetings with Japanese Embassy, DOT, etc. Ride on Gautrain (including survey of station facilities) Survey of freight terminal, etc. Meeting with South African National Treasury, etc., Survey of the city of Johannesburg Meeting with Gauteng province’s Department of Public Transport, Roads and Works, etc. Route survey in Johannesburg–Newcastle section Route survey in Newcastle–Harrismith section Route survey in Harrismith–Pietermaritzburg section Route survey in Pietermaritzburg–Durban section, Survey of the city of Durban Meeting with Durban city’s Department of Transport, survey of freight terminal and Durban Station, Team meeting Survey of former Durban airport site, Route survey of Durban–Richards Bay section Survey of Richards Bay coal terminal, Route survey of Richards Bay–Vryheid section Route survey of Vryheid–Johannesburg section Survey of the city of Johannesburg Meetings with Japanese Embassy, DOT, etc. Meetings with UCW, Murray & Roberts Survey of Bombela Depot, Meeting with TRE Meetings with TFR and PRASA In transit High-speed Railway Route Survey Team returned to Japan

Source: Study Team

Table 2-3 Outcomes of First Field Survey (Economic and Financial Analyses and Survey Team) No.

M

1 2

8 8

D 23 24

Tue Wed

W

Departing

Arriving

3

8

25

Thu

Sandton

4

8

26

Fri

Sandton

5 6 7 8 9

8 8 8 8 8

27 28 29 30 31

Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed

Johannesburg Durban

Durban Durban

Sandton Sandton Sandton Durban Durban

10

9

1

Thu

Durban

11

9

2

Fri

Pietermarit zburg Sandton

12

9

3

Sat

Pietermaritzb urg Pietermaritzb urg

Pietermaritzb urg Johannesburg

13

9

4

Sun

Narita

Lodging Onboard Sandton

Onboard Narita

Remarks （visits, etc.） In transit Arrival of Economic and Financial Analysis and Survey Team, Meeting with Gauteng province’s Department of Economic Development, Survey of freight terminal Meetings with South African National Treasury and TFR, Survey of the city of Johannesburg Meeting with Gauteng province’s Department of Public Transport, Roads and Works, etc. Organized information materials Organized information materials Meeting with CSIR, etc. Meeting with Gauteng Management Agency, etc. Meeting with Durban city’s Department of Transport, Survey of freight terminal and Durban Station, Team meeting Meetings with KZN province’s relevant authorities Meetings with Johannesburg University professor and DOT In transit Economic and Financial Analyses and Survey Team returned to Japan

Source: Study Team

35

Table 2-4 Outcomes of Second Field Survey No.

M

D

W

Departing

Arriving

1 2 3

11 11 11

19 20 21

Sat Sun Mon

Haneda Johannesburg

Johannesburg Cape Town

4 5

11 11

22 23

Tue Wed

Cape Town

Johannesburg

6

11

24

Thu

Johannesburg Durban

Durban Johannesburg

7

11

25

Fri

8 9

11 11

26 27

Sat Sun

Lodging

Remarks （visits, etc.）

Onboard Sandton (Cape Town Sandton Sandton

In transit Arrival of survey team Meetings with Japanese Embassy and Gauteng province’s Department of Economic Development Meeting with Dr. Havenga of Stellenbosch University Meetings with Murray & Roberts, Gauteng province’s Department of Public Transport, Roads and Works, etc., Transnet, and JICA Meetings with South African National Treasury and KZN province’s relevant authorities Meetings with PRASA and Japanese Embassy, Survey of Tubular Track In transit Survey team returned to Japan

Sandton Sandton

Johannesburg

Onboard Narita

Source: Study Team

Table 2-5 Outcomes for Third Field Survey No. 1 2 3 4 5 6

M 1 1 1 1 2 2

D

W

28 29 30 31 1 2

Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu

Departing

Arriving

Narita Johannesburg

Johannesburg

Lodging Onboard Sandton Sandton Sandton Onboard

Narita

Source: Study Team

36

Remarks （visits, etc.） In transit Arrival of survey team Pre-meeting with Japanese officials Presentation of final report In transit Survey team returns to Japan

Chapter 3 Justification, Objectives and Technical Feasibility of the Project Chapter 3 Justification, Objectives and Technical Feasibility of the Project 3

(1) Project Background and Necessity, etc. 1. Scope of Project, Main Target Classes for the Products and Services of This Project This project aims to introduce a high-speed railway to the Johannesburg–Durban section, which is a main corridor in the Republic of South Africa.

Being considered is a combined passenger and freight system that will provide not only passenger transport service, which does not expect very high demand, but also container freight transport.

The target for the passenger service is the mid-income class, which is expected to expand considerably in the future. Currently, the mid-to-high income earners are not using the railway due to safety concerns. On the other hand, Gautrain, which is the first railway built using a public-private partnership scheme, has resolved the security issue. The mid-to-high income earners, who had not been using the conventional railway, have been seen at the Gautrain. In this way, as the newly emerged culture in using public transport takes root, the mid-income class, which is expected to grow from now on, will form the main class of passengers for train service.

As explained later, the unpredictable arrival time of rail freight has eroded the trust of shippers. Restoring that trust is a challenge. However, once the high-speed railway has established punctual and regular freight transport service, it is expected to attract modal shift of container freight, such as for daily necessities, from truck to railway.

2. Current Status Analysis, Future Forecast (Including Demand Forecast), and Problems when the Project is not Implemented South Africa has the largest economy in Africa. It is also one of the emerging economies experiencing high economic growth, with an average annual GDP growth rate of over 4% in recent years, except in 2009 due to the effects of Lehman’s fall. The per-capita nominal GDP of South Africa in 2010 ranked No. 3 among the BRICS countries, after Brazil and Russia. While the emerging economies and developing countries in the world are putting together high-speed railway plans, the intercity passenger transport in South Africa is still relying on automobile. From the perspectives of socio-economic development and BEE policy, the high-speed railway plan has become an important topic in transport infrastructure that holds the key to sustainable economic development. For this reason, if this project does not materialize, sustainable economic growth may be jeopardized.

In the policy speech given by President Zuma at the National Assembly in February 2010, the development of infrastructure, including railway, has already been designated as a priority area. The Department of Transport (DOT) in South Africa has also proposed the development of three high-speed railway corridors in NATMAP, the national transport master plan with 2050 as its target year, and has taken up review of the Johannesburg–Durban High-speed Railway Project as a priority among the strategic issues. In May 2010,

37

the South African National Assembly approved to solidify the high-speed railway project and put forth a plan to establish HSRDA, an organization under DOT to take charge of the high-speed railway projects.

Japan also designated the export of systems, including transport infrastructure, as a strategy for economic growth. High-speed railway is considered a priority area. Railway-related industries and railway operators have also started to turn their attention to overseas markets. There is high expectation for these railway-related businesses, which have superior technology in rolling stock, signaling, telecommunication, to expand overseas.

For South Africa, it is necessary to look into a combined passenger and freight system that will provide not only passenger transport, which is not expected to have very high demand, but also container freight transport service. Under such circumstances, this project formation study was conducted to identify the areas to which the Japanese high-speed railway technology can be applicable, to appeal the technology’s superiority to the concerned parties in the South African government, and to deepen the understanding of South Africa in the Japanese high-speed railway technology.

3. Effects and Impacts When the Project is Implemented The following two benefits can result from the implementation of this project:

1) Contribute to Improving the Investment Environment South Africa accounts for over 30% of the whole GNP of the sub-Sahara Africa. It has achieved solid economic growth of 4% annually on the average, except in 2009 due to Lehman’s fall. Further development is expected as President Zuma has put forth mid-term priority targets, which include acceleration of economic growth. In this way, South Africa has continued to draw closer and closer to an economic level that calls for the construction of high-speed railway. If the high-speed railway is constructed, an economic growth corridor will take shape in the Johannesburg–Durban section, which will contribute immensely to the expansion of related investments and job creation.

2) Effects of Regional Development, Technology Transfer, and Job Creation With the introduction of high-speed railway, human resources with high-added values and expertise that tend to concentrate in the greater Johannesburg area will have more opportunities to utilize their talents in regional cities (Durban, Richards Bay, etc.) along the high-speed railway line, thus contributing to regional growth and the development of human resources.

Similar to the auto industry, the high-speed railway industry also has many supporting industries (civil engineering, electricity, machinery, signaling, telecommunication, etc.). The transfer of technology through the construction, operation, maintenance, and administration of the high-speed railway will have a positive effect on South Africa’s industries as a whole.

38

4. Comparison of Proposed Project and Other Possible Alternatives 1) Comparison of High-speed Railway Systems The high-speed railway systems operating in the world today include the multiple-unit system represented by the Japanese Shinkansen and the concentrated traction system represented by the French TGV. Differences between the two systems are shown in Figure 3-1. The multiple-unit system is mainly composed of self-powered passenger cars. The concentrated traction system has one locomotive at one end or at both ends of the trainset, with unpowered passenger cars in the middle. The locomotive cannot carry any passengers.

Figure 3-1 Difference between the Two Traction Systems

Source: Study Team

Table 3-1 shows the differences between these two systems.

39

Table 3-1 Comparison of High-speed Railway Systems Item Traction system

Multiple-unit system

Concentrated traction system

(Shinkansen)

(TGV)

Multiple-unit system

Concentrated traction system

(Electric train/EMU) Light-weight

(Hauled by locomotive) Heavy

Tokaido Shinkansen Axle load

Series N700: 11 t

France

Tohoku Shinkansen

TGV-R: 17 t

Series E2: 13 t

Acceleration and deceleration performance

Regenerative brake

Passenger transport efficiency

Infrastructure: low cost

Infrastructure: high cost

High performance

Low performance

N700：0.72 m/s Continuous

2

steep

TGV-R：0.44 m/s2 grade:

high Continuous steep grade: low

performance

performance

Yes

No

Maintenance: little

Maintenance: high

Energy efficiency: high

Energy efficiency: low

High

Low

Passenger cars throughout the Locomotive(s) is needed and no trainset

passengers

can

ride

on

the

locomotive(s) Source: Study Team The power car of the concentrated traction system is heavy, resulting in heavy axle load. Since no passengers can ride on the locomotive(s), passenger transport efficiency is low. Due to the limited number of power cars, the acceleration and deceleration performance is also low.

On the other hand, the multiple-unit system has many merits. Its light axle load makes it possible to keep the cost of infrastructure down. Since passengers can ride on all train cars, the passenger transport efficiency is high. It has good acceleration and deceleration. It also can negotiate the continuous steep grade well, like the ones on the route of this project. Based on the above, we assume that the multiple-unit Shinkansen system will be adopted for this project.

2) Comparison of Three Routes A comparison study was conducted on the three high-speed railway route options for the Johannesburg–Durban section: Route A running along the conventional rail freight line via Richards Bay, Route B running along the conventional line via Newcastle, and Route C running along highway N3. (Figure 3-2)

40

Figure 3-2 Map of Three Route Options for the Johannesburg–Durban High-speed Railway Gauteng

Mpumalanga Johannesburg (Germiston)

Secunda Ermelo

Heidelburg

Route Ｂ （606km）

Standerton

Piet Retief

Villies Volksrust

Route Ａ （724km）

Route Ｃ （562km） Vryheid Newcastle Warden

Free State

Harrismith

Ulundi

Ladysmith

KwaZulu-Natal

RichardsBay (Empangeni)

Mooi River

Pietermaritzburg King Shaka International Airport

Durban

Source: Study Team

a) Route Plan (a) Route A (approximately 720 km) Route A goes eastward along the conventional line from Johannesburg to Durban via Ermelo (center for coal trains), Piet Retief, Vryheid, Ulundi (center for chip-making lumber), Richards Bay, (a coal shipping port facing the Indian Ocean), and King Shaka International Airport near the coast.

This route is approximately 720 km in length. Although it is the longest route among the three, since the section from Ermelo to Richards Bay has a longitudinal alignment that is running along a conventional line where coal trains hauling 200 cars (approximately 2.5 km in length) operate, there are few grade restrictions for the high-speed railway. (Figure 3-3)

41

Figure 3-3 Longitudinal Alignment of Route A

Source: Study Team

(b) Route B (approximately 610 km) Route B extends along the conventional line in the southeast direction from Johannesburg to Durban via the plateau city Standerton, Newcastle, Ladysmith, Mooi River, and Pietermaritzburg. Since the route goes through the mountainous areas, the tunnels are longer that those of Route A (Figure 3-4).

Figure 3-4 Longitudinal Alignment of Route B

Source: Study Team

(c) Route C (approximately 560 km) Route C goes southward from Johannesburg along highway N3 to Harrismith. The route from there to Durban is the same route as Route B. Since the route will go through mountainous areas and the steep grade section near Harrismith, the length of its tunnels is the longest among the three route options. (Figure 3-5)

42

Figure 3-5 Longitudinal Alignment of Route C

Source: Study Team

b) Travel Time for Passenger Trains Route A is the best route in terms of gradient. However, if the comparison is between Johannesburg and Durban, which is the most important section, Route A will be about 150–190 km longer than routes B and C. For this reason, Route A will take 30–40 minutes longer than Route B, making the trip as long as 3 hours to 3 hours 40 minutes. Thus, the advantage of high-speed railway is compromised. In particular, an express type train on Route A (stopping only at King Shaka International Airport) will take more or less the same time as a local train on Route B (stopping at seven stations). In addition, Route A does not have any big city along the line.

Route C is the shortest route. The travel time of Route C is 15–20 minutes shorter than Route B. However, except for the section that is the same as in Route B, there is no major city along the line.

From the perspectives of achieving speediness between Johannesburg and Durban, the most important section, and locations of the cities, Route B can be said the most appropriate route for the high-speed railway.

c) Demand Forecast Route A lacks speediness between Johannesburg and Durban when compared to routes B and C. This erodes its competitiveness as a transport means. As a result, the demand for Route A will be 10% less than that for Route B or Route C.

In comparing Route B and Route C, as shown in 4 above, Route B has more big cities along the line. Since the demand forecast of this study used the traffic volumes of Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal provinces, which account for most of the demand for high-speed railway in the Johannesburg–Durban section, the traffic volumes to and from Mpumalanga province, which is on Route B, and Free State

43

province, which is on Route C, were excluded from the analysis 1. For this reason, the difference in demand between Route B and Route C due to the distribution of big cities along the lines has not been clarified. However, it is assumed that Route B has more demand because of the big cities along its line.

From the perspective of demand forecast, Route B is the most appropriate route for the high-speed railway.

d) Project Cost Since Route A is about 120–160 km longer than routes B and C, its project cost is 7%–9% higher than route B and C. In comparing Route B and Route C, although the project cost for Route B is about 2% higher, Route B has cities with relatively big population, it is more suitable as a high-speed railway route.

Table 3-2 Comparing the Project Costs of Three Route Alternatives Item Civil structures construction cost Track construction cost Station construction cost Various buildings Machinery and equipment cost Electric facilities cost Signaling/telecommunication facilities cost System construction cost Total construction cost Rolling stock (passenger cars) Rolling stock (freight cars) Consulting service Taxes (domestic currency) Import tax (foreign currency) General administrative fee (domestic currency) Reserves Land acquisition cost Total project cost

Estimated project cost Route A Route B Route C (Million yen) (Million yen) (Million yen) 724,000 641,400 652,200 140,300 124,100 116,300 99,000 122,400 102,300 163,900 163,900 163,900 25,000 25,000 25,000 135,000 128,300 124,700 69,800 63,500 60,500 12,000 12,000 12,000 1,369,100 1,280,600 1,256,800 72,000 72,000 72,000 148,500 148,500 148,500 68,500 64,000 62,800 152,500 141,600 139,000 27,900 26,700 26,200 51,900 48,100 47,300 68,500 64,000 62,800 66,600 46,900 47,300 2,025,300 1,892,400 1,862,700

Source: Study Team

1

Since the distances to travel from cities in Mpumalanga and Free State provinces to Johannesburg and Durban are short, automobile is more competitive. Therefore, compared to the traffic volumes of Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal provinces, the travel volumes of Mpumalanga and Free State provinces have very little impact on the overall demand.

44

e) Environmental and Social Considerations In comparing the pros and cons of the three routes from the viewpoint of environmental and social considerations, the differences among the three routes become quite obvious when looking at the following four items:

(a) Impact on Road Transport Companies Currently the road transport for the Johannesburg–Durban section mainly relies on N3. If Route A, which is far away from N3, is selected, there will not be much impact on passenger and freight transport.

On the other hand, if Route B or Route C, which are near N3 and have many sections running parallel to N3, is chosen, the impact will be relatively big.

(b) Impact on Wetlands Protected by the Ramsar Convention Of the 20 ecological protection sites (wetlands) in South Africa that have been designated by the Ramsar Convention, the three route options of this project may pass through three wetlands. Blesbokspruit in Gauteng province may be impacted by any of the three routes. Route C is likely to be close to Seekoeivlei Nature Reserve in Free State province and Route A is likely to be close to the St Lucia System in KwaZulu-Natal province.

Looking at the number of wetlands that may be impacted by the various routes, Route A and Route C may impact two sites and Route B may only impact one site.

(c) Reduction in Traffic Accidents Based on local interviews, the current traffic accident rate of N3 is extremely high. If Route B or Route C is selected, the effect from fewer traffic accidents will be greater than if Route A is selected.

(d) Impact on the Living Environment of Indigenous People According to information from the KwaZulu-Natal provincial government, the residential areas of the province’s indigenous people is spread out in the eastern part. If Route A is selected, the route has a very high chance of passing through the areas of these indigenous people. On the other hand, if Route B or Route C is selected, the chance is almost none.

Looking at the above four items, Route B is superior from the viewpoints of impact on the wetlands and indigenous people, and the impact from fewer traffic accidents.

45

f) Economic Ripple Effect (Job creation resulting from construction investment and services) Based on the project cost shown in 8., the job creation effect during the construction period is estimated2 to be about 350,000 people for either Route A, B, or C.

The job creation effect is also expected from the high-speed railway service. The operation and maintenance is expected to employ 7600 people annually.

Thus, no matter which route is selected, the construction and service of the high-speed railway is expected to have considerable employment effect on the areas along the railway line.

Table 3-3 summarizes the above route comparison. In a comparison of travel time between Johannesburg and Durban, demand forecast (passenger and freight), and project costs, routes B and C fare better than the longest route A. In terms of environmental and social considerations and low impact on wetlands and areas of the indigenous people, B is the best.

The size of the cities along Route B is the largest. Due to the anticipated passenger demand in the future, this project uses Route B as the premise.

2

The estimation is calculated based on the construction cost portion of the project cost. It is assumed that 50% of the construction cost is equivalent to the added value. Increase in employment from the construction is estimated by dividing the added value with per-capita GDP (20,160 USD) of a worker in South Africa. Japanese data are used as reference for the percentage of construction cost (50%) in the added value. However, it is necessary to perform detailed calculation using data from South Africa.

46

Table 3-3 Route Comparison Item

Route A (1) It runs along the conventional rail freight line through Richards Bay. (2) The topography is relatively flat and there is no long tunnel. (3) Except Richards Bay, there is no major city along the line.

Route overview

Route length

Route B (1) It runs along the conventional line through Newcastle. (2) It passes through mountainous areas. (3) There are several intermediate cities along the line.

Approx. 720 km

Approx. 610 km

Route C (1) It runs along highway N3. (2) It passes through mountainous areas. (3) Pietermaritzburg is the only intermediate city along the line.

Approx. 560 km

Travel time of passenger trains

Approx. 3 hours (one stop) ~ 3 hours 40 minutes (stop at every station)

Approx. 2 hours 30 minutes (one stop) ~ 3 hours (stop at every station)

Approx. 2 hours 15 minutes (one stop) ~ 2 hours 40 minutes (stop at every station)

Demand forecast (Year2050) High estimate

Passenger

33,000 trips/day

38,000 trips/day

38,000 trips/day

Freight

Lower than Route B

4.2 million tons/year

4.2 million tons/year

Project cost

Approx. 169 billion R

Approx. 158 billion R

Approx. 155 billion R

Social and environmental considerations

(1) Impact on road transport companies small (2) Impact on wetland highly possible (3) Impact of fewer traffic accidents small (4) Highly possible to pass through areas of the indigenous people

(1) Impact on road transport companies huge (2) Impact on wetland unlikely (3) Impact of fewer traffic accidents huge (4) Unlikely to pass through areas of the indigenous people

(1) Impact on road transport companies huge (2) Impact on wetland highly possible (3) Impact of fewer traffic accidents huge (4) Unlikely to pass through areas of indigenous people

Economic ripple effect (job creation)

370,000 people/during construction period Slightly higher than Route B

350,000 people/during construction period 7,600 people/year

340,000 people/during construction period 7,600 people/year

Construction Service

Assessment

C

A

Source: Study Team

47

B

(2) Various Reviews Required for Determining Project Contents 1. Demand Forecast 1) Overview of Forecast Method As shown in the chart below, the four-step estimation method was used to estimate passengers and freight.

First, the interregional traffic volume was estimated based on the future forecast value in NATMAP. Next, the railway passenger transport volume was estimated by using the parameters of modal share in NATMAP.

On the other hand, since freight transport does not have the same kind of model as passenger transport, the freight volume was estimated based on interviews with multiple freight forwarders.

As for the years for forecasting the volume of passengers, we selected 2020, 2025 and 2050. And, we selected 2025 and 2050 for forecasting the volume of cargo freights. Meanwhile, for the economic/financial analyses, we estimated the benefit, revenues, etc. of each year (including the start of partial operation in 2020, and the start of entire operation in 2050), based on the linear interpolation of forecast outcomes at each occasion.

Figure 3-6 Method of Demand Forecast NATMAP

Interregional traffic volume (current) NATMAP

Interregional traffic volume (future) Time between station, fare/charge

NATMAP

Model of shares by transportation mode, etc.

※Set by route

Number of railway passengers (future) Volume of rail freight (future) Source: Study Team

The future forecast assumes realization of the following prerequisites: < Prerequisites > -

Economic development of the Johannesburg–Durban Corridor

-

Passenger transport: Secured safety and feeder transport

-

Freight transport: Improved efficiency at freight terminals

48

2) Forecast of Passenger Demand a) Estimate of modal share without the high-speed railway The distribution traffic volume from Gauteng province to KwaZulu-Natal province by transport mode was estimated from the forecasted results of distribution traffic volume and modal share in NATMAP.

In the case of not having the high-speed railway in 2050, the railway was estimated to make 5.5 thousand million trips /y, air 38.5 thousand trips/ y, and car 121.8 thousand trips/ y.

Figure 3-7 Distribution Traffic Volume between Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal Provinces by Transportation Mode (Without High-speed Railway)

thousand trips / y 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0

5.5 38.5

4.1 3.3

RAIL

33.6 AIR

30.7 121.8 61.3

2010

84.0

2025

CAR

2050

Source: Study Team

Secondly, after zoning Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal provinces, OD chart by transportation mode is estimated. OD chart is estimated based on the forecasted results of distribution traffic volume between Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal provinces by transportation mode and amount of traffic by transportation mode in increments of district.

We divided Gauteng province into two zones, and KwaZulu-Natal province into four zones. The most populated city is set as the center of zone.

49

Table 3-4 Zoning (Gauteng Province and KwaZulu-Natal Province) Province Gauteng

Core City

District

Johannesburg

City of Johannesburg MM Ekurhuleni MM Sedibeng DM

Pretoria

City of Tshwane MM West Rand DM

KwaZulu-Natal

Durban

eThekwini MM Ugu DM iLembe DM

Pietermaritzburg

uMgungundlovu DM Sisonke DM

Ladysmith

uThukela DM uMzinyathi DM Amajuba DM

Richard's Bay

Zululand DM uMkhanyakude DM uThungulu DM

Source: Study Team b) Estimating the modal shift rate to High-speed Railway The logit model used in NATMAP was used to estimate the modal shift rate.

The modal shift rate from each mode to high-speed railway is estimated by the logit model. This study assumed that high-income group would be the potential passengers shift to high-speed railway; therefore, high income group and business trips passenger category was used as parameter for the logit model.

Table 3-5 Parameters

Vi  tc  traveltimei  cc  cos ti  Ctrain

Parameter (high income group and business trips) Time coefficient Cost coefficient exp(Vi ) Pi  (min) (R/trip) exp(Vk ) -0.26 -0.104 k tc : coefficient for travel time cc : coefficient for travel cost travel ｔ ime i : travel time by mode i cost i : travel cost by mode i Pi : modal share of mode i C train : constant term in utility function of railway passengers



Source：NATMAP Modeling Report (Oct.2009)

50

c) Setting of Travel Time and Fare Charge This study used the travel time between stations as the travel time for the high-speed railway. The fare/charge for the high-speed railway was set at 80% of the air fare. Specifically, relative to the current full-price economy class airfare of 1,250 rand from King Shaka Airport to OR Tambo Airport, the fare for the high-speed railway between Johannesburg and Durban was set at 1,000 rand. The fares/charges for other railway zone were setup as proportional to the distances between stations.

On the other hand, the travel time/fare by transportation mode listed in NATMAP was used for the air and car.

However, the highway tolls used two cases: the current tolls and the future tolls after price increase. The latter one was estimated using purchasing power parity from the Japanese highway toll.

It was assumed that the Gautrain or bus would be used as access to the airport or stations on the Johannesburg side. Check-in time of 45 minutes and check-out time of 15 minutes were taken into consideration in the use of air.

Table 3-6 Travel Time/Fare by Transportation Mode Mode

Basic unit

Private

Speed

40 km/h

car

Speed (high way)

100 km/h

Fuel cost

7.47 rand/liter

Fuel efficiency

10 km/liter

Speed

40 km/h

Fare

0.24 rand/km

Travel time

1.2 hour

Fare

1250 rand

Train

Air (※)

※ Travel time and fare (economy) from King Shaka Airport to OR Tambo Airport Source: Prepared by the Study Team

d) Estimation of modal share Modal share was estimated using the abovementioned model, travel time, and fare.

In a high estimate case, the railway’s share was estimated to be 84%. On the other hand, in a low estimate case, it was estimated to be 76%. Both cases gave results that all air passengers shifted to be high-speed railway. They also gave results that more than half of car users shifted to be high-speed railway.

51

Figure 3-8 Modal Share (High estimate) 0%

20%

without

40%

60%

80%

75%

with

23%

16% 0%

100%

2%

84%

CAR

AIR

RAIL

Source: Study Team

Figure 3-9 Modal Share (Low estimate) 0%

20%

without

with

40%

60%

75%

24%

80%

23%

0%

100%

2%

76%

CAR

AIR

RAIL

Source: Study Team

e) Estimation of the Number of High-speed Railway passenger The estimated results of high-speed railway passenger are shown below. The number is expected to be 34,000–38,000 passengers /d.

Also, given the time taken for the demand to become steady, 60% of the model’s estimation is presumed to be actualized in 2025.

52

Figure 3-10 Future Forecast of the Number of High-speed Railway Passenger Trips / d 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0

38,000 34,000

17,000

15,000

2025

2050

High Estimate

Low Estimate

Source: Study Team

f) Estimation of the number of high-speed railway passenger who use high-speed railways to transfer within the province at the start of partial railway operation Using the similar method as estimating the traffic volume between Gauteng - KwaZulu-Natal provinces, we estimated the number of high-speed railway passengers who use high-speed railways to transfer within the KwaZulu-Natal province at the start of partial railway operation.

As the route to be forecasted, we selected the route of the King Shaka International Airport - Durban Pietermaritzburg.

We used the same method of estimation as the above-stated transfer between the provinces.

The estimated number of high-speed railway passenger within the KwaZulu-Natal province is shown below: 1,200 trips/d in 2020, and 1,300 trips/d in 2050 .

In this study, because of the data constraints, we divided the area of KwaZulu-Natal province into 4 zones to conduct demand forecast on the transfers within the same province, as similar to the transfers between the provinces. As a result, the forecasted number of users came out to be smaller than that of actual. Therefore, a further demand forecast with more detailed zoning should be conducted as an inter-city transport system.

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Figure 3-11 Future Forecast of the Number of High-speed Railway Passenger within the KwaZulu-Natal Province Trips / d 2,000 1,500

1,200

1,300

2020

2050

1,000 500 0

Source: Study Team

3) Forecast of Freight Demand The years for the forecast of freight demand were 2025 and 2050.

The growth rate (national) of freight volume by product item in NATMAP was applied to the freight volume by product item in the Durban-Gauteng section to forecast freight volume without the high-speed railway in the future.

Furthermore, the future values (2025 and 2050) of modal share by product item without the high-speed railway were estimated by keeping the 2010 modal share rate by product item constant.

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Figure 3-12 Future Forecast of Container Freight Volume in Durban-Gauteng section (Without)

Annual Container Freight Volume in Durban – Gauteng Section (Without) (Million t /y)

Percentage of Product Items In Durban – Gauteng Section

Wood

22%

Containers

7%

78% 93%

Minerals Perishables

89% 0%

Other

2% 2%

Machines/Vehicles

11%

Fuels

98%

6.0 71%

Coal 1%

Crops

8%

Grains

0.4

4.0

91%

3.0

79% 62%

10%

0.5

5.0

95%

21%

Ag. Products

0.6

76%

9% 5%

Cement

8.0

ROAD

7.0

24%

Beverages/Drinks

RAIL

100% 98%

29%

Chemicals Metals

9.0

7.8 6.4 5.4

2.0

38%

1.0

90% 99%

0.0

92%

2010

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100 % RAIL ROAD

2025

2050

※Estimate based on NATMAP future forecast

Source: Study Team

In addition, based on the results of interviews with local freight forwarders, “container” is assumed to be the product item that will switch from truck transport to high-speed railway.

Additionally, using the results of the same interviews, the following two cases were envisioned: -

High estimate: 3-day transport, 20% cheaper than truck → 50% of containers will be transported by rail

-

Low estimate: 3-day transport, 20% cheaper than truck → 30% of trucks will be transported by rail

The potential demand in 2025 was estimated to be 34.4 thousand t annually in a high estimate and 20.6 thousand t in a low estimate. Afterwards, the demand grew by 10% per 10-year, which in 2050 was estimated to be 42.2 thousand t annually in a high estimate and 25.3 thousand t annually in a low estimate.

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Figure 3-13 Forecast of annual volume of cargo transportation by high-speed railway (Future forecast) thousand t / y 45.0 40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0

42.2 34.4 25.3 20.6

2025

2050

High Estimate

year

Low Estimate

Source: Study Team

2. Understanding and Analysis of Important Issues in the Review and Determination of Project Contents 1) Feasibility of Freight Transport by High-speed Railway According to the “Study for the Formation of High-speed Railway Project in the Republic of South Africa” (hereafter “FY 2010 MLIT Study” conducted by the Japan Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism in March 2011), passenger demand for the high-speed railway in the Johannesburg–Durban section is forecasted to be 17,000–23,000 persons/d in 2020 and 23,000–31,000 persons/d in 2050. Therefore, in order to introduce the Japanese Shinkansen system, which has been developed with the objective to deliver high-speed, large-volume, and efficient transport based on the construction of a new high-speed railway line dedicated to passenger transport and a highly reliable safety system, it is necessary to study how to enhance profitability by combining the use of high-speed railway with freight transport.

According to the “FY2010 MLIT Study,” there are many issues with bulk transport in terms of the technical feasibility of a joint passenger and freight system. However, there is possibility for container transport between transportation hubs.

For the container transport, it is necessary to identify the product items that will have sufficient transport demand, select a method that will match their needs, and establish a model for combining freight transport with the new high-speed railway. High-speed transport by storing onboard small containers like the ones used for the airplanes presents few technical hurdles. The questions are whether there is enough demand and how to transfer the cargoes. The combination of high-speed railway and transport of freight containers

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at the medium speed of 160 km/h is feasible both in terms of technology and demand. Specifically, the EMU using Super Rail Cargo technology, which was put into practical use by JR Freight in Japan, has high possibility of coexisting with a high-speed railway.

The structure of an EMU Super Rail Cargo is similar to the EMU trains used by Metrorail and Gautrain in South Africa. It may be possible to meet the expectation of domestic production of these trains in South Africa.

2) Issues Related to Freight Transport In addition to technical issues, transporting freight by high-speed railway has many issues that will require detailed review, including profitability of the project when freight is included.

The following are the technical issues: -

Ensuring safety when trains pass each other (locking the containers, preventing the doors from opening, maximum permissible speed)

-

Possibility of using a system to prevent the trains from passing at high speed

-

Floor height of container cars and track center distance, taking into consideration wind pressure

-

Most suitable axle load, length of car body, cargo weight, number of containers onboard, taking into consideration track maintenance

-

Maximum gradient, curve radius, maximum amount of cant

-

Accurate weight measurement and transshipment facilities at container terminals

-

Effect on timetable planning due to large speed difference

As of today, there is no example of a freight train and a high-speed train operating at a maximum speed of 300 km/h passing each other on a high-speed railway line.

What might the problems be when a high-speed train passes a freight train? The freight trains in this project are assumed to be carrying freight containers. Since the doors are at the end, compared to the containers with doors on the side, the likelihood of the doors opening during operation and hit the high-speed train is believed to be small.

However, since the containers are not owned by the railway, it is not possible to have complete control over the maintenance and cargoes being shipped. Loss or drop of component parts, high gravity center of cargoes, and other such issues that may not have been problems for a conventional train may cause major problems for a high-speed railway. At this point in time, the effect of wind pressure on the freight train when passed by a high-speed train is not known. As an example, when the Shin-aomori–Shin-hakodate section of the Hokkaido Shinkansen first opened, the section had freight trains. With the opening of the Shinkansen, the Seikan Tunnel used by the current conventional line (Tsugarukaikyo Line) became a section shared by the Shinkansen and the conventional line. The freight train and the Shinkansen train

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operating at a maximum speed of 260 km/h are supposed to share the same tunnel. However, there is still no decision today due to concern about the impact of wind pressure when the trains pass; in other words, whether to allow the two types of trains to pass each other.

Figure 3-14 Freight Containers

Figure 3-15 Japan’s Freight Containers

(The door is at the back)

Source: Study Team

(The door is at the aside)

Source: Study Team

When making a timetable, if there is a big difference in train speeds, the slow train will soon be caught up by the high-speed train. This presents a hurdle in planning the timetable of the high-speed trains. Many facilities (siding) need to be built to enable the high-speed trains to pass the slower trains. The more frequent a slow train needs to wait for the passing of the faster train, the more time it will take the slow train.

On the other hand, by introducing the distributed traction system (EMU) into long-distance trains, which used to be mainly hauled by locomotives, Japan’s Shinkansen became a pioneer in high-speed passenger railway system. Today EMU system has become the mainstream of high-speed railway in the world. Introducing Japan’s mature electric train technology to freight transport, which uses mainly locomotive-hauled trains, can give rise to a new high-speed railway system that works in harmony with freight transport. If this new system combining freight transport and high-speed railway can be established, it will be possible to introduce high-speed railway to many more countries that have low passenger demand. It may become an additional strength of the Japanese high-speed railway technology.

[Examples of Combined Passenger and Freight High-speed Railway Plans and Anticipated Issues] Currently, a plan to construct a high-speed railway of approximately 300 km in length to link Lyon in France and Torino in Italy is underway. Certain sections of this route is said to be shared by three types of trains. They are high-speed passenger train, conventional freight train, and piggyback train that can load trailer trucks carrying containers. Most of the route sections shared by the high-speed passenger trains and freight trains are tunnels, including the 53-km base tunnel that goes through the Alps at the French and Italian border.

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Specifically, it is not known at this time how the high-speed passenger trains and the freight trains will share the route. Since the tunnel is a single-track structure, there is no possibility for the trains to pass each other. However, compared to a double-track tunnel, the construction cost of single-track tunnels is higher.

However, the problem in constructing the timetable due to difference in the speeds of high-speed passenger trains and freight trains is the same for other sections. When a high-speed passenger train is running after a slow freight train, it has to keep quite a distance; otherwise it will catch up with the freight train and will be forced to slow down. Assuming that the average speeds of the high-speed passenger train and the freight train are set at 280 km/h and 100 km/h, respectively, it will take 11 minutes for the passenger train and 32 minutes for the freight to cover 53 km. The difference is 21 minutes. That is, the headway between the freight train and the high-speed passenger train behind it has to add 21 minutes to the regular headway; otherwise, the high-speed train will be forced to reduce speed because of the freight train. Consequently, speediness will be affected.

Building a siding inside the tunnel can mitigate this problem; however, it will increase the construction cost.

Figure 3-16 Location Map of the Lyon – Torino High-speed Railway Plan

Source: Progress Report for the Joint Franco – Italian Section, 6th World Congress on High Speed Rail, UIC(2008)

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Figure 3-17 Overview of the Lyon–Torino High-speed Railway Route

France
Italy

53 km

Torino

12 km

22 km

Base Tunnel

80 km

72 km

Passenger train route

70 km

Tunnel

Freight train route Shared route

Source: Study Team based on “Safety requirements & transport of dangerous good”, Lyon Turin Ferroviate (LTF) (2008)

3. Review of Technical Methods 1) Combined Passenger and Freight Transport Method In reviewing the combined passenger and freight transport of the South Africa High-speed Railway Plan, there are various technical challenges, including ensuring safety at the passing of trains, as mentioned above. Table 3-7 shows the combined passenger and freight transport patterns and their merits and demerits as a way to overcome these challenges.

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Table 3-7 Combined Passenger and Freight Transport Patterns No. 1

Pattern Separate the operation hours of passenger and freight trains

Merit  No safety problem at the passing of trains  Possible to increase the number of passenger trains to meet demand  No safety problem at the passing of trains

2

Plan timetable so that the passenger trains and freight trains will not pass each other

3

Widen the track center distance to avoid problem when passing at high speed, use single-track tunnels

 No safety problem at the passing of trains

4

Develop rolling stock that will not have any problem even when passing at high-speed (the image of storing air cargo onboard a high-speed train)

 No safety problem at the passing of trains  Possibility of the freight trains and passenger trains operating at the same speed

5

Reduce the speed of the passenger train to 160 km/h when it is passing a freight train

 No safety problem at the passing of trains

6

Reduce the speed of passenger trains to 160 km/h to match the speed of freight trains

 No safety problem at the passing of trains  No restrictions in timetable planning  Increase in the number of trains due to same speed of the passenger and freight trains

Source: Study Team

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Demerit  Number of freight trains will be limited  Need to secure time zone for maintenance  The number of passenger and freight trains will be limited due to the difference in speeds  Difficult to plan the timetable  Difficult to control traffic  Need to develop a operation management system for such timetable  The number of passenger and freight trains will be limited due to difference in speeds  Increase in construction cost  Single track tunnel will have a smaller cross-section, resulting in an increase in microbarometric wave.  Need to review track distance that will prevent passing problem  Development of the rolling stock will take time.  Cannot carry the freight containers being discussed for this project  Transshipment of cargoes will take time.  The number of passenger and freight trains will be limited due to difference in speeds  It will take the passenger train longer to arrive at the destination.  Need to develop more advanced operation management system and signaling system than the current ones  Restrictions in timetable planning  Traffic control becomes complicated when there is disruption to the timetable  Loss of competitiveness due to increase in travel time of passenger trains

2) Review and Selection of Combined Passenger and Freight Transport Pattern All the combined passenger and freight transport patterns presented in 1) are premised on not causing any safety problem when the passenger and freight trains pass each other.

Pattern 1 separates the operation hours of the passenger and freight trains, ensuring safety by completely eliminating the possibility of train passing. It is possible to increase the number of passenger trains depending on the demand. The demerit lies in the number of freight trains that can be scheduled. Although the freight trains must depart from the terminals in Johannesburg and Durban late at night after the end of passenger train service and before 1:00 a.m., it is possible to increase the number of trains by reducing the headway. In that case, it is necessary to increase the departure and arrival lines and cargo handling facilities. Since the freight trains will be operating during the night hours, the inspection and maintenance of facilities, which usually take place at night for the Japanese Shinkansen, will have to be postponed until the weekends when the freight trains are not running. At this time, this pattern is the most practical method for combining passenger and freight transport.

Pattern 2 requires either the passenger train or freight train to wait at the station to avoid passing.

In

reality, the timetable will have to be formulated as for a single-track section. For this reason, the number of trains will be extremely limited.

For Pattern 3, since it is not known at this time how wide the track center distance needs to be in order to ensure that there will not be any safety issue during train passing, it is necessary to conduct an in-depth study. In addition, widening the track center distance and adopting single-track tunnels will increase the construction cost.

Pattern 4 opts for carrying small containers in the same type of rolling stock as the regular Shinkansen. They are similar to the kind of containers used on the airplanes. In this case, not only will the safety issue be resolved but it is also possible to operate the freight trains at the same high speed as the passenger trains. However, since it is not possible to load the freight containers as is and the cargoes must be transferred to small containers, the method is not practical.

For pattern 5, since it is necessary to reduce the speed of the passenger train during passing, its travel time will increase. In addition, it is necessary to develop operation management system and signaling system that are more advanced than the current ones in order to reduce train speed with certainty during passing even when the train operation is confused by some troubles

In Pattern 6, operating the passenger trains also at 160 km/h can avoid the danger of train passing at high speed. However, the increase in travel time will make passenger service less competitive than the other transport mode.

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In this way, patterns 2 – 6 have many issues that need to be resolved.

This study places priority on ensuring safety while at the same time having the flexibility to increase service when there is higher passenger demand. Therefore, pattern 1, the most practical pattern for the combined passenger and freight operation for the high-speed railway in South Africa, will be adopted. The combined passenger and freight operation is summarized as follows: -

Passenger transport is the main operation, freight transport is supplementary.

-

Passenger and freight trains operate during different hours

-

The passenger trains operate from morning to late evening and the freight trains operate throughout the night. The freight trains will not operate on the weekends so that maintenance can be carried out.

-

The shippers and transport items for freight service will be limited.

Since passenger demand is expected to be low when service first starts, setting aside certain freight transport hours during the day is also considered.

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(3) Overview of Project Plan 1.

Basic Principles in Determining Contents of the Project

The project’s basic principles for planning the high-speed railway for the Johannesburg–Durban section are based on NATMAP formulated by the South Africa Department of Transport, the intent of concerned government officials, and the outcomes of local surveys. They are as follows:

1) Objectives a) Combined Passenger and Freight High-speed Railway This high-speed railway system will be based on the Japanese Shinkansen. It will provide not only high-speed passenger transport but also freight transport. The freight transport will not cover bulk goods but the freight containers being handled at the Port of Durban.

b) High-speed Railway System Matching the Conditions in South Africa When reviewing the specific high-speed railway system, the conditions in South Africa will be considered in the design of technical specifications to match local conditions.

c) Travel Time between Johannesburg and Durban The passenger trains will run at a maximum operating speed of 300 km/h. Johannesburg and Durban will be linked in less than three hours. The freight trains will basically run at night at a maximum speed of 160 km/h. It will link Johannesburg and Durban in about five hours.

2) Conditions in South Africa Requiring Consideration The following points shall be fully considered when planning the high-speed railway for South Africa:

a) Socio-economic Development (Job Creation, Technology Transfer, etc.) South Africa is promoting socio-economic development through job creation, technology transfer, and so on. The Johannesburg–Durban High-speed Railway needs to be planned in line with those intents and purposes. Technology shall be transferred to enable localization.

b) BEE (Black Economic Empowerment) Policy The policy (BEE policy) was enacted in 2004 to give preferential treatment to historically disadvantaged South Africans (HDSA) who were discriminated during the Apartheid era, to enhance their social status, and to promote their participation in social activities. Specifically, the government set standards for hiring black people at companies, universities, and various other companies and organizations in South Africa in order to improve the economic level and living standard of the black people. The BEE policy will also apply to the construction and operation of the high-speed railway.

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c) Comfortable and Safe High-speed Railway (Ensuring Safety) Public transport means in South Africa, represented by Metrorail and mini-buses, lack safety. The user classes are limited. The Johannesburg–Durban High-speed Railway aims at providing safe and comfortable high-speed railway service, as seen in Gautrain. To summarize the above, Figure 3-18 and Table 3-8 show the discussion flow and image of the Johannesburg–Durban High-speed Railway. Figure 3-18 Proposal of High-speed Railway Designed for South Africa Japanese Shinkansen South African Factors - Socio-economic development (Job creation, technology transfer, etc.) - BEE Policy (Note) - Ensuring security

- Optimization of technical specifications - Cost reduction - Technical Collaboration

High-speed Railway Designed for South Africa (Objectives) - Combined passenger and freight transport - Localization - Industrialization - Maximum speed: Passenger: 300 km/h Freight: 160 km/h - Travel time for Johannesburg–Durban section Passenger: within 3 hours Freight: about 5 hours (Note) BEE = Black Economic Empowerment

Source: Study Team

Table 3-8 Image of Combined Passenger and Freight High-speed Railway Item Passenger Freight

Train

Open for full service（2025）

Future（2050）

1–2 trains/h

Operation focused on passenger trains

（6:00～23:00）

(increase the number of trains)

Operate Super Rail Cargo during the

Limit the operation of freight trains to a

night (container EMU)

certain number

（9–10 trains/one-way/day）

（Same as left）

Parallel single tracks

Parallel single tracks

2 days (Saturdays and Sundays) a week

Same as left

operation Maintenance

when the freight trains are not in operation. Maintenance is carried out at night. Source: Study Team

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2.

Concept Design and Specifications of Applicable Facilities

1) Construction Standards Table 3-9 shows the major construction standards.

Table 3-9 Major Construction Standards of the High-speed Railway Item

Standards

Track

1,435 mm

Design maximum speed

350 km/h

Maximum operation speed Passenger train

300 km/h

Freight train (transport of freight

160 km/h

containers) Minimum plane curve radius

Main line: R=6,000 m Sideline: R=1,000 m Car depots, etc.: R=300 m

Minimum vertical curve radius

25,000 m

Steepest grade

General areas besides marshalling yard: 15‰ When there is topographical limitations: 20‰ Inside stations: 3‰ (in principle, level) Car depots and freight stations: Level

Track center distance

5.0 m

Width of track foundation

12.1 m

Track structure

Ballast（slab track at certain places）

Maximum real cant

140 mm

Maximum cant shortage

110 mm（high-speed passenger train）

Standard cross-section of

90 m2

double-track tunnel Operation method

Parallel single-track

Complete grade separation

No grade crossing at ground level

Source: Study Team

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Figure 3-19 Construction Gauge and Vehicle Gauge of the High-speed Railway C

Construction Gauge

Vehicle Gauge

Source: Study Team

2) Train Operation Plan Transport is planned on the premise that the high-speed trains operating at a maximum speed of 300 km/h and the freight trains operating at 160 km/h will share the same track.

In this case, it is necessary to formulate timetable so that the slower freight trains will not hinder the high-speed passenger trains while taking into consideration the wind pressure when a freight train and a high-speed passenger train pass each other.

To resolve these issues, the high-speed passenger trains and the freight trains will operate in different hours. Specifically, the high-speed passenger trains will operate from morning to late night (6:00–23:00 or 24:00) and the freight trains will only operate during the night when the passenger trains are not in operation.

In such case, it becomes a problem to secure time for maintenance. For the Japanese Shinkansen system, the hours from 0:00 to 6:00 when there is no train operation are reserved for maintenance works. For this project, the night hours on Saturdays and Sundays (early mornings of Sundays and Mondays) will be reserved for maintenance works when the freight trains are not in operation.

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3) Plan for Rolling Stock a) Passenger Train The passenger train is required to meet the following conditions in order to operate in the Johannesburg–Durban section: -

It can operate at a maximum speed of 300 km/h in order to be superior to the other transport modes, such as airplane and buses.

-

It can operate at high speed when negotiating continuous steep gradient of 20‰.

-

It has high energy efficiency, in consideration of global warming measures.

-

It makes low noise even when operating at high speed, in consideration of the environment along the track.

-

It has to be highly safe and has few malfunctions so that passengers feel easy.

In the nearly 50-year history of the Japanese Shinkansen since its opening in 1964, there was no passenger casualty. The average delay per Tokaido Shinkansen train, including delay caused by natural disasters, is 0.6 minute (FY 2010). The safety and reliability of the Shinkansen is at the highest level in the world. In terms of maximum speed, the Sanyo Shinkansen started operation at 300 km/h since 1997 and the Tohoku Shinkansen also started operation at 300 km/h since 2011. Furthermore, the Tohoku Shinkansen is scheduled to start operation at a maximum speed of 320 km/h at the end of FY 2012. In terms of gradient, the Nagano Shinkansen operates for 30 km on continuous steep gradient of 30‰. The Shinkansen is an efficient, high-speed mass transportation system, characterized by light-weight and wide car body operating with a distributed traction system (EMU). It is highly energy efficient because the energy needed for the transport per passenger is extremely low. In terms of noise, Shinkansen not only meets Japan’s extremely stringent environmental standard, its noise measures to control the tunnel micro-pressure wave under the condition of a narrow tunnel section of approximately 64 m2 is said to be the most advanced in the world.

Given the above, technical specifications of the rolling stock to be introduced in this project will be based on the technical standards of the Japanese Shinkansen. Table 3-10 shows the basic conditions.

Table 3-10 Basic Conditions for Passenger Trains Item Train type Gauge Electrification Maximum axle load Maximum operating speed Trainset configuration

Description Electric train（EMU Type） 1,435 mm AC25kv 50Hz Under 16 t 300 km/h 8-car trainset at opening (occupancy about 600 persons), maximum 12 cars (about 900 persons)

Source: Study Team

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b) Freight Train As passenger demand at the beginning is expected to be low, the basic principle of this project is to combine container freight transport because of its high demand in the Johannesburg–Durban section. To ensure safety, the premise is to separate the operation hours of passenger and freight transport. The freight train is required to meet the following conditions: -

It can complete the Johannesburg–Durban section within 5 hours.

-

It can negotiate continuous steep gradient of 20‰.

-

It can operate on Shinkansen structure designed for low axle load.

-

It can carry generally the 40-ft and 20-ft containers.

-

It has to ensure that the containers or cargoes in the containers will not fall on the track.

There is no freight transport on the Japanese Shinkansen. However, freight trains using the distributed traction system, known as Super Rail Cargo, operate on conventional lines at a maximum speed of 130 km/h, the same speed as the express trains. Since this project will use freight trains based on the Shinkansen distributed traction system, it will enable them to negotiate continuous steep gradient at high speed and have similar low axle load as the high-speed passenger trains. The Shinkansen distributed traction system can meet the stringent conditions that cannot be achieved by trains hauled by locomotives.

Table 3-11 shows the basic conditions.

Table 3-11 Basic Conditions for Freight Trains Item

Description

Train type

Electric train（EMU Type）

Gauge

1,435 mm

Electrification

AC25kv 50Hz

Maximum axle load

Under 16 t

Maximum operating speed

160 km/h

Trainset length

Under 300 m

Containers

40-ft and 20-ft containers

Source: Study Team

4) Plan for Electric Facilities a) Overhead Line, Substation, Power Supply The electrification will use AC25kV, 50Hz. The substations will be set up at approximately 10–15 km intervals. The AT feeding method, which is a time-proven method for the Shinkansen, will be used. The high-speed simple catenary, which is simple, easy to maintain, and is well-tested by the recently constructed Shinkansen lines so as to lower the cost, will be used.

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b) Signaling and Telecommunication 

Signaling System

The most important task for high-speed railway is to ensure safety between trains to prevent collision.

This project will adopt a signaling system that uses the ATC system to continuously control a train’s distance from the preceding train. It will constantly check if the subsequent train is running within the range of the speed signal so that it can stop at the position before the block behind the preceding train. If its operation speed exceeds the speed signal, the ATC system will automatically reduce the train’s operation speed according to the speed signal in order to keep its distance from the preceding train.

In addition, the parallel single-track system will be used. When one of the double tracks cannot be used due to an emergency or maintenance work, the remaining track can be used for operation in both directions. 

Operation Management System

A operation management system that will collect information necessary for controlling traffic and control all the routes remotely from the operation control center will be adopted in order to centralize all the dispatching duties. 

Train Radio

The digital mobile communications system using space wave will be adopted. The LCX system will be used inside tunnels.

5) Plan for Car Depots Since this railway line is expected to be used mostly for the transport of passengers and freight between the two cities of Johannesburg and Durban, the car depots will be set up near the two stations. Depending on the size of the facility, the car depot will either be a workshop or a depot. They will split the functions according to the types of inspection they will perform. It is desirable to set up the workshop near Durban to handle the transport of new rolling stock from overseas.

Therefore, the plan is to have two car depots, which include one workshop in Durban and one depot in Johannesburg.

6) Plan for Maintenance Depot Certain hours are set aside for the maintenance of the high-speed railway. Special cars are used for maintaining facilities and electricity-related equipment. To carry out these tasks efficiently, it is necessary to have depots along the railway line to store these special cars. In general, one depot is responsible for the maintenance of 50–100 km. There will be eight depots on Route B, using 75 km as the average. The depots that handle long rails will also be set up at the same car depots.

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7) Security Railways in South Africa are plagued by the problem of frequent service disruption due to cable thefts. Because of bad security situation, it is a big challenge to ensure the safety of passengers at stations and on trains.

For this project, it is necessary to ensure the safety of passengers and prevent thefts of various cables and facilities. Therefore, all the high-speed railway sites shall be fenced to prevent easy trespassing. Surveillance cameras shall be set up to monitor and constantly record images of important facilities, such as station concourses, platforms, cabins and decks in the train, substations, and depots. The monitoring shall also be made visible and audible at the operation control center.

3.

Contents of the Proposed Project（Site and scale of the project’s budget, etc.）

The following shows the proposed project contents on route plan, civil engineering structures, track, stations, electric facilities, rolling stock, operation plan, car depots, and maintenance depots based on the basic principles for determining the contents of the project, concept design, and specifications of applicable facilities. The scale of the project’s budget will be discussed in Chapter 5.

1) Route Plan a) Selection of Route The following principles were used to select the route when reviewing the alignment and the profile of routes: -

Straight sections, large curve and gentle gradient sections were secured to facilitate operation at high speed. However, at dense built-up urban areas, the curve radius was made small to the extent that it would not interfere with the speed limit of trains in order to avoid dense residential areas and to reduce construction cost.

-

Efforts were made to avoid cutting off communities, natural parks, important cultural assets, cemeteries , churches, schools, hospitals, and apartment complexes.

-

Wherever possible, the route is made parallel to the main roads and railway lines to avoid dividing land.

-

Wherever possible, straight alignment and gradient of over 3‰ are chosen for tunnels. The alignment is reviewed from the perspectives of ease of construction and ensuring construction period so that tunnel length will be kept at below 20 km.

-

At intersection with rivers, the route is made into right angle as much as possible to secure effective cross-sectional area of flow and to maintain balance of the span division.

The control points for the profile are intersections with the conventional lines, roads, and rivers. The guidelines for their treatment are as follows: -

Intersection with conventional line: Required overhead clearance＝Construction gauge for railway + construction tolerance

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The construction gauge for the railway is H＝5.9 m electrification limit for the electrified sections. -

Intersection with road: Required overhead clearance＝Construction gauge for road＋construction tolerance The construction gauge for roads is set at H=5.2 m (see SANRAL: “Geometric Design Guidelines” 10.Grade Separation structure).

-

Intersection with rivers: Required overhead clearance＝over 3.0 m (as service road)

-

Construction tolerance: Over 0.2 m (except rivers)

The results of reviewing the alignment and the profile are shown in Figures 3-20 to 3-22 Alignment Diagram and Figures 3-23 to 3-25 Profile Diagram.

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Figure 3-20 Alignment (1/3)

Source: Study Team

73

Figure 3-21 Alignment (2/3)

Source: Study Team

74

Figure 3-22 Alignment (3/3)

Source: Study Team

75

Figure 3-23 Profile (1/3)

Source: Study Team

76

Figure 3-24 Profile (2/3)

Source: Study Team

77

Figure 3-25 Profile (3/3)

Source: Study Team

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b) Selecting the Locations of Various Passenger Stations The locations of the passenger stations were determined by considering passenger demand, connection with other transportation modes, including the conventional lines, future prospect of the city where the station is located, and so on. Table 3-12 gives an overview of the locations of passenger stations.

Table 3-12 Overview of Locations of Passenger Stations Name of station

Johannesburg (Germiston)

Kilometer

0km000m

Heidelberg

29km000m

Standerton

134km500m

Volksrust

211km500m

Newcastle

253km500m

Ladysmith

354km500m

Explanation ・ Set up new station at Germiston in the suburb of Johannesburg (see③1)c)). ・ Ideal location for a passenger station because it is close to the highway interchange, industrial area, and residential area (Germiston and Alberton). ・ The intersecting freight line has the possibility of being used as an access railway to the city. ・ Small city with population of approximately 70,000. ・ Since it is not a stopping station for Shosholoza Meyl, no passenger station will be set up at the existing station. ・ A new station will be set up in the northern part of the city center along N3 due to environmental and social considerations. ・ Small city with population of approximately 70,000. ・ Although the existing station is a stopping station for Shosholoza Meyl, it is located right in the city center. The route alignment before and after the station is not ideal. ・ A new station will not be set up at the existing station but on the southwest side of the city center due to environmental and social considerations. ・ No new station would be set up at the existing station because it is not a stopping station for Shosholoza Meyl. ・ A new station would be set up near the intersection with R543 on the west side of the city center due to environmental and social considerations. ・ A mid-size city with population of approximately 420,000. ・ Although the existing station is a stopping station for the Shosholoza Meyl, it is oriented in the east-west direction and is near the airport. Building a new station to the existing one will be difficult. ・ A new station will be set up in the city center (next to N11 along R34) where there are few obstructive structures and is convenient. ・ A mid-size city with population of approximately 230,000. ・ Although the existing station is a stopping station for Shosholoza Meyl, the station is located in a curved section. The alignment before and after the station is not ideal. ・ A new station will be set up near the freight terminal (adjacent to N11) in the northern part of the city center where there are few obstructive structures and is convenient.

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Name of station

Kilometer

Mooi River

438km000m

Pietermaritzburg

499km000m

Durban

576km500m

King Shaka International Airport

606km000m

Explanation ・ Although it is a small city with population of approximately 10,000, there are many prestigious private schools and country inns and transport demand from tourists is anticipated. ・ Since it is not a stopping station for Shosholoza Meyl, no new passenger station will be set up at the existing station. ・ A new station will be set up in the eastern part of the city center due to environmental and social considerations. ・ A mid-size city with population of approximately 600,000. ・ Although the existing station is a stopping station for Shosholoza Meyl, the station is located in a curved section. The alignment before and after the station is not ideal. The line will pass through dense residential areas. ・ A new station will be set up near the freight terminal in the southern part of the city center due to environmental and social considerations. ・ The passenger train will enter the Metrorail Durban Station (see ③1)c)). ・ The station is conveniently located in the city center. ・ It is possible to add a high-speed railway terminal by reducing the number of platforms at the existing station. ・ The international airport is located at approximately 30 km north of Durban. ・ A new station will be set up at the airport to provide access to the greater Durban area.

Source: Study Team

c) Selecting the Locations of Passenger Terminals Johannesburg The location of the Johannesburg Passenger Terminal is supposed to be at the Metrorail Johannesburg Park Station. However, since the location is a main cause for higher construction cost, the following three alternatives, including the Johannesburg Park Station, are compared (Figure 3-26) -

Metrorail station (Johannesburg Park Station)

-

Gautrain station (Marlboro Station)

-

New station (Germiston Station): Different from Metrorail’s Germiston Station.

Table 3-13 shows the result of comparison among the three alternatives. From the perspectives of construction cost and environmental and social considerations, the new station (Germiston Station) is the first candidate and it shall be structured to make it possible to extend to the Johannesburg Park Station and the Marlboro Station. It is hoped that the freight line that intersects the station will be used as an access line to the urban areas.

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Table 3-13 Comparing Locations for the Johannesburg Terminal Item

Gautrain Station

New Station

It is the terminals for the Metrorail, Shosholoza Meyl and Gautrain. The station is convenient since it is near the city center and has a bus terminal.

Gautrain Station is located at approximately 15 km northeast of the city center. It is a convenient junction station to the Park Station, OR Tambo International Airport, and Pretoria directions.

A candidate site for the new station. It is located at approximately 16 km to the southeast of the city center. It is adjacent to the N3 intersection and has good access to the urban center and airport.

Construction cost

It is approximately 18 km longer than the proposed new station. Since there is a tunnel near the station, the construction cost will be 70 billion yen higher than that of the proposed new station.

It is approximately 26 km longer than the proposed new station. Since it has many intersections with N3, the construction cost will be 80 billion yen higher than that of the proposed new station.

Since the candidate site for the station is located in the suburb and the extension to be constructed is short, the construction cost is the lowest among the three proposed stations.

Environmental and social considerations

Although there are few obstructive structures along N17, there are many buildings near the Park Station. Therefore, an underground structure is required.

Since there is a high concentration of houses and factories along N3, relocation of many residents is required.

Since the current site for the new station has not been slated for any use, there will not be any major problems in securing the site.

High-speed operation is not possible due to the steep grades and sharp curves along N3. Many intersections with N3 make construction difficult.

No special technical issues.

Technical issues for review

High-speed operation is not possible due to sharp curves at certain sections. Detailed review is required due to the need to construct a tunnel in the city center.

Overview of station locations, site conditions

Metrorail Station

Assessment

B

C

A

Source: Study Team

Durban The following two locations for the Durban passenger terminal were compared (Figure 3-27): -

Metrorail station (Durban Station)

-

New station (Durban North)

Table 3-14 shows the result of comparing the two locations. From the perspectives of connection with the freight terminal and car depot, and social and environmental considerations, the proposed Durban Station is the number one candidate. The route near the station will run parallel to the Metrorail.

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Table 3-14 Comparing Locations for the Durban Terminal Item

Metrorail Station

New Station

Terminals of Metrorail (6 platforms, 12 tracks) and Shosholoza Meyl (2 platforms, 3 tracks). It is near the city center and is convenient.

It is located at approximately 7 km north of Durban and is a developing industrial area. It is adjacent to R102 and has good access to the city center.

Since the route will pass through the former Durban International Airport, it has good connection to the freight terminal and car depot.

It is difficult to secure a large piece of flat land for the freight terminal and car depot near the new station. Setting up the car depot, etc. in the suburb will have poor connection to the new station.

Environmental and social considerations

Since the route will be parallel to the Metrorail line near the station, relocation of structures can be kept to a minimum.

Since there is a high concentration of houses and factories near the station, relocation of many residents is required.

Technical issues for review

Since the construction near the station will be carried out near the existing line, which is in full operation, construction shall be carried out with great care.

Although precaution during construction is required at the route’s intersections with N2 and N3, there will still be fewer problems than the Metrorail Station.

A

B

Overview of station location, site conditions

Connection to freight terminal and car depot

Assessment Source: Study Team

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Figure 3-26 Map Comparing the Proposed Locations for the Johannesburg Terminal

Source: Study Team

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Figure 3-27 Map Comparing the Proposed Locations for the Durban Terminal

Source: Study Team

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d) Freight Terminal and Car Depot Tambo Springs, located at approximately 30 km southeast of Johannesburg, will be the candidate site for the freight terminal on the Johannesburg side, in light of Transnet’s plan to set up a new container terminal. Ease of acquiring land for the car depot is taken into consideration. Therefore, the candidate site will also be near Tambo Springs.

On the other hand, the former Durban International Airport site, situated at approximately 15 km south of Durban, will be the candidate site for the freight terminal on the Durban side, in light of Transnet’s plan to set up a new container terminal. Similar to the container terminal, the former Durban International Airport site will be the candidate site for the car depot and workshop, in consideration of the procurement of materials through ocean transport.

2) Civil Engineering Structures and Track a) Civil Engineering Structures A review was conducted to allocate structures for the structure plan, taking into consideration cost-effectiveness, ease of construction, construction period, maintenance, and harmony with the environment, etc. Basically, elevated structures will be used around city areas, embankment and cutting in rural areas where the terrain has little undulation, and tunnels in the mountainous area between Estcourt and Durban suburb.

Box culvert or viaduct will be used to provide vertical separation when

the railway line intersects with an existing road in the embankment sections. Figure 3-28 to Figure 3-31 are typical cross-section drawings of civil engineering structures. For the tunnels, combining rolling stock with excellent air tightness and measures for mitigating tunnel boom, which are technologies unique to the Japanese Shinkansen, makes it possible to have small cross-sections like the 90-m2 inner section area and to keep the cost down..

Wind Pressure Limit Line

Refuge & Maintenance Passage

Wind Pressure Limit Line

Figure 3-28 Standard Cross Section of Elevated Structure

Cable Trough

Refuge & Maintenance Passage

Cable Trough

Source: Study Team

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Figure 3-29 Standard Cross Section of Embankment

Rail Level

.5 1:1

Cable Trough

Roadbed

Cable Trough

1:1

.5

Source: Study Team

5 1. 8~ 0. 1:

Wind Pressure Limit Line

Refuge & Maintenance Passage

Wind Pressure Limit Line

Figure 3-30 Standard Cross Section of Cutting

Rail Level

Roadbed

Source: Study Team

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Refuge & Maintenance Passage

5 1. 8~ 0. 1:

Figure 3-31 Standard Cross Section of Tunnel INNER CROSS SECTION OF TUNNEL 90m2

Wind Pressure Limit Line

Wind Pressure Limit Line

Refuge & Maintenance Passage

Refuge & Maintenance Passage

SL

Source: Study Team Table 3-15 shows the types of civil engineering structures and their lengths determined in accordance with the abovementioned selection standards.

Table 3-15 Types and Lengths of Civil Engineering Structures Type of Structure

Length (km)

Ratio (%)

Earthwork

381

63

Tunnels

127

21

Bridges

3

1

95

15

606

100

Elevated Track Total Source: Study Team b) Track

Although keeping the cost of track maintenance at a low level will have a great impact on the railway business, from the perspective of job creation in line with the BEE policy, the track structure will basically be ballast track. However, slab track will be used inside tunnels to enhance the efficiency of maintenance works. The sections where the passenger trains will be operating at 300 km/h will also have slab track to prevent crushed rocks kicked up from the ballast track from damaging the cars.

[ Review using the local company Tubular Track for track construction ] Tubular Track is a company in South Africa specializing in the construction of tracks. Tubular Track has similar track structure as the ladder track in Japan. It was developed in 1996 for draining effluent from the middle part of the track in mine tunnels. It is able to bring the cost down thanks to its maintenance-free structure. Today, Tubular Track is used in mines and for passenger railways, including Metrorail. It is also exported overseas (Saudi Arabia, Namibia, etc.).

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Figure 3-32

Factory’s production area

Source: Study Team

Figure 3-33 Tubular Track at Denneboom Station (Metrorail)

Source: Study Team

Tubular Track is mainly used for freight lines with heavy axle load (can even handle axle load over 30 t) and railway lines with passenger trains operating under 200 km/h. Its applicability to high-speed railway requires various studies due to its generous value for allowable settlement.

3) Station There will basically be two kinds of stations: main stations (Johannesburg, Pietermaritzburg, Durban, and King Shaka International Airport) where the trains can turn around and the intermediate station (Heidelberg, Standerton, Volksrust, Newcastle, Ladysmith and Mooi River) where the trains pass through. Although the Newcastle Station is an intermediate station, a passing track that can accommodate long trainset will be added to provide refuge space for freight operation. Ladysmith Station will also add a passing track that can accommodate a passenger trainset to enable turn-back operation for general inspection purpose.

Figure 3-34 shows the cross-section of a main station, Figure 3-35 the cross-section of an intermediate station, and Figure 3-36 a track layout plan.

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Figure 3-34 Main Station 40640 5000

Source: Study Team

Figure 3-35 Intermediate Station

31800 15000

7500

7600

Source: Study Team

89

7500

Figure 3-36 Track Layout Plan

Source: Study Team

4) Electric Facilities a) Electricity in South Africa The national company Eskom has an overwhelming market share in both power generation and power transmission in South Africa’s electricity business. The retail side of power distribution is shared by Eskom’s power distribution department and municipal power distribution operators. Eskom generates 92% of South Africa’s domestic electricity supply. The operator manages the generation, transmission, and distribution operations in a comprehensive manner. It is one of the largest electricity companies in the world, ranking No. 9 based on its sales of electricity volume in 2007 and No. 13 based on the capacity of its power generation facilities.

However, South Africa has had severe power shortage since October 2007, suffering frequent load rejection (rolling blackouts). Eskom asked all customers, including for household use, 10% load

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reduction and a maximum of 20% temporary load reduction from especially the mining sector, which is a main industry. As a result, the mines had to stop operation temporarily in January 2008. The reason for such power shortage is due to the lack of facility investment in the last half century. Thus, power generation and transmission cannot catch up with the rapid increase in power demand from the economic growth in recent years. Eskom has started a “Five-year Plan for Stabilization and Restoration” to tackle this electricity crisis.

The power transmission system in South Africa is owned and operated by Eskom. Most of the power transmission systems use 400kV or 275kV. However, transmission lines of 765kV, 533kV (DC), and also lower rank voltages, such as 220kV and 132kV, are also used.

b) Electric Substation Facilities (a) Substation (SS) A substation has power receiving equipment, transformer, feeder, and control and monitoring equipment. The power receiving equipment will adopt a primary and secondary line method so that the functions of the substation facilities will not stop even if there is an accident at the primary line or during maintenance. For economic reason, the common bus will not be installed. The transforming and feeding systems will also be duplicated. Due to connection with PLN, it is necessary to have PLN switch/measurement facilities set up in the neighboring site.

(b) Sectional Post (SP) SP is set up at the mid-point between two sub stations. It is equipped with AT, circuit breakers, section insulators, and control and monitoring equipment. The sectioning equipment has the functions to tie the overhead lines of both directions and to extend the feeding function. When there is an accident, the power will be extended from the operating substation up to the point in front of the substation on the accident side.

(c) Auto-transformer post (ATP) ATP is installed to moderate voltage drop. It does not have the sectioning function. It is made up of AT-related facilities and monitoring and control facilities.

c) Overhead Line The suspension pole at the earthwork sections will use the affordable concrete poles. Single pole method using movable bracket (made up of insulator and pipe) will be used to support the overhead lines and light-weight strong steel poles will be used in the elevated sections. At tunnel sections, the overhead lines will be hung from the tunnel ceiling. Since no sections are expected to have particularly strong wind, the span for the supporting poles is planned for 50 m.

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d) Lighting and Electricity Facilities Lighting/electricity facilities are classified into two big categories: electricity facilities to supply power to all loads except the train cars and lighting facilities as the load devices for lights and outlets in buildings. The electric facilities for the high-speed railway will use the same system adopted by the conventional electric railways, power companies, and large electric users. However, since the reliability of power supply is also dependent on other systems, facilities that are directly related to train operation or load devices for such purpose shall basically have dual power sources (2 lines). In addition, if there are fluctuations in power supply at the receiving site, emergency generator shall be installed to ensure certain reliability in power supply.

e) Plan for Signaling Facilities 

Maximum Speed

The signaling facilities shall be able communicate with certainty to the train and ground facilities in order to ensure safe train operation and deliver a maximum speed of 300 km for the passenger trains and a maximum speed of 160 km for the freight train. 

Operation System

Due to the high-speed operation, the system will continuously indicate the speed signal (permissible speed) onboard and at the same time, control automatically so that the speed will be kept below the signal speed. The system enables the crew to control the train within the speed of the signal. 

Train Control

The ATC brake control with continuous curve method will be adopted. It checks the operation speed to see if it is within the range of the speed signal so that it can stop at the position of the block behind the preceding train. If the speed signal is exceeded, the train’s operation speed will automatically be reduced to maintain distance with the preceding train to prevent rear-end collision. 

Block System - This system only allows one train to enter one block section. - The single-track bi-direction system will be used.



Signal

A system to allow entry of the train - The onboard signaling system will use ATC operation (speed control method). - The ground signal method will use ATC cut-off operation（when not in ATC operation）. - Ground signaling equipment (shunt signal, shunt signage) will be installed at stations and at the workshop.

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

Interlocking

Electronic interlocking equipment will be installed at stations and the workshop to ensure train safety. It electronically locks the switches so that they will not change when the train is passing through them to prevent train collision. 

Traffic Control System

An operation control center will be set up at Johannesburg or Durban to monitor the operation condition of trains from the operation control center and to control the trains using an integrated system.

f)

Plan for Telecommunication Facilities

(a) Overview of Telecommunication Facilities The telecommunication systems are summarized below by function: a.

Transmission equipment

b.

Train radio

c.

Communication route

d. Dispatching equipment e.

Equipment to collect wayside information

f. Passenger information and guidance equipment g. Guidance policy h.

Security facilities

i.

Other facilities

Station communication facilities Car depot communication facilities Communication power supply facilities Other such facilities

(b) Plan for the Facilities 

Transmission Equipment

Transmission equipment is the artery of electric telecommunication. It is composed of communication route, optical carrier, and an independent circuit network. - Optical fiber cables will be used as the communication route for the main truck lines. - Optical carrier, which can transmit large volume of information over long distance, will be used as the circuit. - The circuit will use a duplicated structure. 

Train Radio

Train radio is used as an information transmission circuit between the train and the ground. - The digital wireless system using space wave will be adopted. - The tunnel section will use LCX cable. (It will function as an antenna for sending and receiving information between the train and the ground.)

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

Security System Surveillance cameras will be installed at stations and important facilities. - The necessary number of surveillance cameras will be installed at the concourse and platforms of stations. Security monitor and recording equipment will be installed at the station office. - The necessary number of surveillance cameras, security monitors, and recording equipment will also be installed at important facilities, such as substations, car depots, and maintenance depots. - The operation control center shall have the function to switch between major images accompanied by audio and visual information.

5) Rolling Stock a) Passenger Train As mentioned in the concept design and facility specification sections, the passenger train for this project will be based on the Shinkansen rolling stock, equipped with the functions to operate at a maximum speed of 300 km/h.

The train will be configured into an 8-car trainset at the launch of service, with occupancy of 600 passengers (rough estimate). As the transport volume increases in the future, the trainset can be increased to 12 cars (capacity of approximately 900 passengers). The interior of the whole train is set up as a mono class with five seats; however, in the case of Japan, the interior can also be set up as a business class with four seats and first class with three seats, depending on the needs.

To enhance the environmental performance, this rolling stock has a long-nose type head shape, which can reduce the micro-pressure wave in tunnels, and is mounted with low-noise type pantographs. The car body is smooth and hoods are used between cars to reduce noise from the outside. In addition, dampers and active vibration control system are installed to enhance safety and ride quality.

To ensure safety, surveillance cameras are installed in passenger cabins and decks and a recording system that can store images for a certain period of time.

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Table 3-16 Basic Specifications of Passenger Train Item

Specifications

Track Gauge

1,435 mm

Electrification

AC25kV／50Hz

Maximum operation speed

300 km/h

Trainset configuration

8 cars (8M) at opening, maximum of 12 cars (12M)

Capacity (reference: rough figure)

Mono class（regular car） 600 passengers (8 cars) – 900 passengers (12 cars) All reclining and rotatable seats Under 14 t

Maximum axle load (at full occupancy） Car length Major dimensions

(front car)

26,500 mm

(Intermediate car)

25,000 mm

Car width

3,350 mm

Car height

3,650 mm

Bogie center distance

17,500 mm

Car body structure

Aluminum double skin structure

Type Bogie

Bolsterless type Φ＝860 mm

Wheel diameter Fixed wheel base

2,500 mm VVVF Inverter control

Control system Main Traction System

3-level PWM control with IGBT Induction motor：300kW

Main motor

32 units/trainset,

9,600kW/trainset

2 units/ trainset

Pantograph

Single-arm low-noise type

Brake

Electric command air brake with regenerative brake

Traction and braking control circuit

Digital transmission control＋Backup command line

Safety system

ATC continuous pattern control

Train radio

Space wave, LCX (tunnel) digital method

Source: Study Team

b) Freight Train As mentioned in the concept design and facility specification sections, the freight train for this project will be based on the Super Rail Cargo rolling stock with distributed traction system, equipped with the functions to negotiate 20‰ continuous steep gradient, and can operate at a maximum speed of 160 km/h.

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Figure 3-37 Conceptual Configuration of Freight Train

← Johannesburg

Driving motor car

25m

Intermediate motor cars

25m

Trailer cars

15m

Container

Durban →

Source: Study Team

The front car is a 25-m long control motor car with pantograph on the roof. It has the driver’s cab and machine room for the main equipment but it does not carry containers. The intermediate motor car is also 25 m in length. It has a machine room on both ends and can carry one 40-ft container or two 20-ft containers in the middle of the car. The intermediate trailer car is 15 m in length, capable of carrying one 40-ft container or two 20-ft containers. Using the 20-ft container for conversion, the whole train can transport 24 units (24 TEU). Given the limitation on the number of trains, two trainsets with 14 cars each will be coupled to form a trainset of 28 cars for operation to optimize transport capacity. In such case, one trainset will have transport capacity of 48 TEU.

To prevent serious accidents, it is necessary to install a checking system to ensure that the containers are properly locked and the doors of the containers are not opened.

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Table 3-17 Basic Specifications of Freight Train Item

Specifications

Track Gauge

1,435 mm

Electrification

AC25 kV / 50 Hz

Maximum operation speed

160 km/h

Length of trainset

290 m

Trainset configuration

14 cars (8M6T)

Container capacity

24TEU / Trainset

Maximum axle load

Under 16 t Control motor car

Major dimensions

Car length

Intermediate motor car

traction system

25,000 mm

Trailer car 15,000 mm Car width

Under 3,400 mm

Car height

Under 4,500 mm VVVF inverter control

Control system Main

25,000 mm

3-level PWM control with IGBT Induction motor: 300 kW

Main motor

32 units/trainset, 9,600 kW/trainset 2 units/trainset

Pantograph

Single arm

Brake system

Electric command air brake with regenerative brake

Traction and braking control circuit

Digital transmission control + backup command line

Operation safety

ATC continuous pattern control

Train radio

Space wave, LCX (tunnel) digital method

Source: Study Team

6) Operation Plan a) Components of Operation Plan The operation plan is formulated based on demand forecast. It determines the following items according to the route/facility/rolling stock plans and other specific conditions: 

Operation time (running time, stopping time)



Number of trains (Number of trains operating /h and /d)



Number of cars per trainset/ occupancy



Number of cars needed

Upon reviewing the operation plan, the route plan and rolling stock plan will be adjusted according to needs.

Figure 3-38 is a simplified diagram showing the procedures for formulating an operation plan.

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Figure 3-38 Procedures for Formulating an Train Operation Plan

Demand Forecast Time needed Facility plan

Car specification

Transport capacity needed Adjust if necessary Transport capacity of trainset, No. of trains

Train operation plan (timetable)

Source: Study Team

b) Conditions for the Project The specific conditions for formulating the operation plan for this project are as follows: 

Freight Transport (freight train setting)

Besides passenger trains, this project also includes the operation of freight trains. The maximum speed for the passenger train is 300 km/h and the maximum speed for the freight train is 160 km/h. 

Securing Maintenance Time

In order to ensure safe and reliable transport of the high-speed railway, it is necessary to carry out proper maintenance. The Japanese Shinkansen separates the hours for train operation and the hours for maintenance in order to secure the necessary time for maintenance and also prevent workers from being exposed to the danger of high-speed train operation. Specifically, the trains operate between 6:00 and 24:00 and the remaining six hours are the hours to carry out maintenance works.

Based on the same concept, this project also needs to secure certain hours for maintenance works when the trains are not in operation.

c) Issues Related to the Operation of Freight Trains One way to prevent the high-speed train and freight train from passing each other and to resolve the problem of different speeds in the formation of timetable is to separate the operation hours of the two.

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Specifically, the high-speed trains will operate from morning to late evening and the freight trains will operate from midnight to early morning.

In such case, it is not possible to secure time for maintenance works in the hours between 0:00 and 6:00 like the Japanese Shinkansen. Therefore, maintenance works will be carried in the late night hours on Saturdays and Sundays when the freight traffic flow is relatively light and the freight trains are not in operation.

d) Travel Time Table 3-18 and Table 3-19 show the travel time calculated for Route B.

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Table 3-18 Travel Time (Route B; Johannesburg – King Shaka International Airport) Route B; Johannesburg > King Shaka Intl Airport; Passenger Train (Fast type) Cumulative Travel Travel Running Stopping Time Station Stop Running Time Time Time (arraival) Time (departure) Johannesburg (Germiston area)  0:00:00 0:11:00 Heidelberg 0:11:00 0:11:00 0:11:00 0:35:00 Standerton 0:24:00 0:35:00 0:35:00 0:53:00 Volksrust 0:18:00 0:53:00 0:53:00 1:06:00 New Castle 0:13:00 1:06:00 1:06:00 1:27:00 Lady Smith 0:21:00 1:27:00 1:27:00 1:41:00 Estcourt 0:14:00 1:41:00 1:41:00 2:02:00 Pietermaritzburg  0:21:00 2:02:00 0:01:00 2:03:00 2:28:00 Durban  0:25:00 2:27:00 0:02:00 2:30:00 2:41:00 King Shaka Intl Airport  0:11:00 2:38:00 Route B; Johannesburg > King Shaka Intl Airport; Passenger Train (stops every station) Cumulative Travel Travel Running Stopping Time Station Stop Running Time Time Time (arraival) Time (departure) Johannesburg (Germiston area)  0:00:00 0:13:00 Heidelberg  0:13:00 0:13:00 0:01:00 0:14:00 0:41:00 Standerton  0:27:00 0:40:00 0:01:00 0:42:00 1:05:00 Volksrust  0:23:00 1:03:00 0:01:00 1:06:00 1:23:00 New Castle  0:17:00 1:20:00 0:01:00 1:24:00 1:49:00 Lady Smith  0:25:00 1:45:00 0:01:00 1:50:00 2:08:00 Estcourt  0:18:00 2:03:00 0:01:00 2:09:00 2:33:00 Pietermaritzburg  0:24:00 2:27:00 0:01:00 2:34:00 2:59:00 Durban  0:25:00 2:52:00 0:02:00 3:01:00 3:12:00 King Shaka Intl Airport  0:11:00 3:03:00 Route B; Johannesburg > Durban; Freight Train Station Johannesburg (Germiston area) Heidelberg Standerton Volksrust New Castle Lady Smith Estcourt Pietermaritzburg Durban King Shaka Intl Airport

Stop

Running Time

Cumulative Travel Time Running (arraival) Time





0:17:00 0:46:00 0:35:00 0:23:00 0:40:00 0:26:00 0:37:00 0:33:00

Source: Study Team

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0:17:00 1:03:00 1:38:00 2:01:00 2:41:00 3:07:00 3:44:00 4:17:00

0:17:00 1:03:00 1:38:00 2:01:00 2:41:00 3:07:00 3:44:00 4:17:00

Stopping Time

Travel Time (departure) 0:00:00 0:17:00 1:03:00 1:38:00 2:01:00 2:41:00 3:07:00 3:44:00 4:17:00

Table 3-19 Travel Time (Route B; King Shaka International Airport - Johannesburg) Route B; King Shaka Intl Airport > Johannesburg; Passenger Train (Fast type) Cumulative Travel Travel Running Stopping Time Station Stop Running Time Time Time (arraival) Time (departure) King Shaka Intl Airport  0:00:00 0:11:00 Durban  0:11:00 0:11:00 0:02:00 0:13:00 0:38:00 Pietermaritzburg  0:25:00 0:36:00 0:01:00 0:39:00 1:02:00 Estcourt 0:23:00 0:59:00 1:02:00 1:16:00 Lady Smith 0:14:00 1:13:00 1:16:00 1:37:00 New Castle 0:21:00 1:34:00 1:37:00 1:50:00 Volksrust 0:13:00 1:47:00 1:50:00 2:08:00 Standerton 0:18:00 2:05:00 2:08:00 2:32:00 Heidelberg 0:24:00 2:29:00 2:32:00 2:43:00 Johannesburg (Germiston area)  0:11:00 2:40:00 Route B; King Shaka Intl Airport > Johannesburg; Passenger Train (stops every station) Cumulative Travel Travel Running Stopping Time Station Stop Running Time Time Time (arraival) Time (departure) King Shaka Intl Airport  0:00:00 0:11:00 Durban  0:11:00 0:11:00 0:02:00 0:13:00 0:38:00 Pietermaritzburg  0:25:00 0:36:00 0:01:00 0:39:00 1:04:00 Estcourt  0:25:00 1:01:00 0:01:00 1:05:00 1:23:00 Lady Smith  0:18:00 1:19:00 0:01:00 1:24:00 1:49:00 New Castle  0:25:00 1:44:00 0:01:00 1:50:00 2:09:00 Volksrust  0:19:00 2:03:00 0:01:00 2:10:00 2:33:00 Standerton  0:23:00 2:26:00 0:01:00 2:34:00 3:02:00 Heidelberg  0:28:00 2:54:00 0:01:00 3:03:00 3:16:00 Johannesburg (Germiston area)  0:13:00 3:07:00 Route B; Durban > Johannesburg; Freight Train Station King Shaka Intl Airport Durban Pietermaritzburg Estcourt Lady Smith New Castle Volksrust Standerton Heidelberg Johannesburg (Germiston area)

Stop

Running Time

Cumulative Travel Time Running (arraival) Time





0:33:00 0:37:00 0:26:00 0:40:00 0:23:00 0:35:00 0:46:00 0:18:00

Source: Study Team

101

0:33:00 1:10:00 1:36:00 2:16:00 2:39:00 3:14:00 4:00:00 4:18:00

0:33:00 1:10:00 1:36:00 2:16:00 2:39:00 3:14:00 4:00:00 4:18:00

Stopping Time

Travel Time (departure) 0:00:00 0:33:00 1:10:00 1:36:00 2:16:00 2:39:00 3:14:00 4:00:00

Table 3-20 shows the travel time for Routes A and C as reference.

Table 3-20 Travel Time (Routes A and C) Route A; Johannesburg > Durban; Passenger Train (Fast type) Cumulative Trave l Running Time Station Stop Running Time (arraival) Time Johannesburg (Germiston area)  0:29:00 Secunda 0:29:00 0:29:00 0:49:00 Ermelo 0:20:00 0:49:00 1:12:00 Piet Retief 0:23:00 1:12:00 1:33:00 Vryheid 0:21:00 1:33:00 1:53:00 Ulundi 0:20:00 1:53:00 2:11:00 Rechardsbay 0:18:00 2:11:00 2:50:00 King Shaka Intl Airport  0:39:00 2:50:00 3:03:00 Durban  0:11:00 3:01:00 Route A; Johannesburg > Durban; Passenger Train (stops every station) Cumulative Trave l Running Time Station Stop Running Time (arraival) Time Johannesburg (Germiston area)  0:31:00 Secunda  0:31:00 0:31:00 0:56:00 Ermelo  0:24:00 0:55:00 1:24:00 Piet Retief  0:27:00 1:22:00 1:51:00 Vryheid  0:26:00 1:48:00 2:17:00 Ulundi  0:25:00 2:13:00 2:40:00 Rechardsbay  0:22:00 2:35:00 3:22:00 King Shaka Intl Airport  0:41:00 3:16:00 3:35:00 Durban  0:11:00 3:27:00

Travel Time (departure) 0:00:00 0:29:00 0:49:00 1:12:00 1:33:00 1:53:00 2:11:00 0:02:00 2:52:00

Stopping Time

Stopping Time 0:01:00 0:01:00 0:01:00 0:01:00 0:01:00 0:01:00 0:02:00

Travel Time (departure) 0:00:00 0:32:00 0:57:00 1:25:00 1:52:00 2:18:00 2:41:00 3:24:00

Route A; Johannesburg > Durban; Freight Train Station Johannesburg (Germiston area) Secunda Ermelo Piet Retief Vryheid Ulundi Rechardsbay King Shaka Intl Airport Durban

Stop

Running Time

Cumulative Running Time

Trave l Time (arraival)

Stopping Time

 0:54:00 0:39:00 0:44:00 0:42:00 0:37:00 0:35:00 1:12:00 0:14:00



0:54:00 1:33:00 2:17:00 2:59:00 3:36:00 4:11:00 5:23:00 5:37:00

0:54:00 1:33:00 2:17:00 2:59:00 3:36:00 4:11:00 5:23:00 5:37:00

Route B; Johannesburg > King Shaka Intl Airport; Passenger Train (Fast type) Cumulative Trave l Running Time Station Stop Running Time (arraival) Time Johannesburg (Germiston area)  0:11:00 Heidelberg 0:11:00 0:11:00 0:27:00 Villiers 0:16:00 0:27:00 0:49:00 Warden 0:22:00 0:49:00 1:00:00 Harrismith 0:11:00 1:00:00 1:27:00 Estcourt 0:27:00 1:27:00 1:48:00 Pietermaritzburg  0:21:00 1:48:00 2:14:00 Durban  0:25:00 2:13:00 2:27:00 King Shaka Intl Airport  0:11:00 2:24:00

Travel Time (departure) 0:00:00 0:54:00 1:33:00 2:17:00 2:59:00 3:36:00 4:11:00 5:23:00

Travel Time (departure) 0:00:00 0:11:00 0:27:00 0:49:00 1:00:00 1:27:00 0:01:00 1:49:00 0:02:00 2:16:00

Stopping Time

Route B; Johannesburg > King Shaka Intl Airport; Passenger Train (stops every station) Cumulative Travel Trave l Running Stopping Time Station Stop Running Time Time Time (arraival) Time (departure) Johannesburg (Germiston area)  0:00:00 0:13:00 Heidelberg  0:13:00 0:13:00 0:01:00 0:14:00 0:34:00 Villiers  0:20:00 0:33:00 0:01:00 0:35:00 1:01:00 Warden  0:26:00 0:59:00 0:01:00 1:02:00 1:17:00 Harrismith  0:15:00 1:14:00 0:01:00 1:18:00 1:49:00 Estcourt  0:31:00 1:45:00 0:01:00 1:50:00 2:14:00 Pietermaritzburg  0:24:00 2:09:00 0:01:00 2:15:00 2:40:00 Durban  0:25:00 2:34:00 0:02:00 2:42:00 2:53:00 King Shaka Intl Airport  0:11:00 2:45:00 Route B; Johannesburg > Durban; Freight Train Station Johannesburg (Germiston area) Heidelberg Villiers Warden Harrismith Estcourt Pietermaritzburg Durban King Shaka Intl Airport

Stop

Running Time

Cumulative Running Time

Trave l Time (arraival)





0:17:00 0:30:00 0:42:00 0:21:00 0:50:00 0:37:00 0:33:00

Source: Study Team

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0:17:00 0:47:00 1:29:00 1:50:00 2:40:00 3:17:00 3:50:00

0:17:00 0:47:00 1:29:00 1:50:00 2:40:00 3:17:00 3:50:00

Stopping Time

Travel Time (departure) 0:00:00 0:17:00 0:47:00 1:29:00 1:50:00 2:40:00 3:17:00 3:50:00

e) Transport Capacity 

Passenger Transport

The required transport capacity for the spot traffic volume/d is estimated based on the demand forecast. Since traffic volume fluctuates according to the hour, the transport capacity is set at 70% of the average ridership/d. Transport capacity (one-way)[person/d] ＝ spot traffic volume (one -way)[person/d] ÷ 0.7 ＝ train occupancy[person/train] × No. of trains (one-way)[train/d]

Table 3-21 shows the calculation results.

Table 3-21 Train Configuration and Number of Trains

Year

2020

2025

2050

Section

Pietermaritzburg – King Shaka International Airport Johannesburg – King Shaka International Airport Johannesburg – King Shaka International Airport

Section traffic volume (round trip) [1,000 persons]

Trainset [car]

1.2

8

20.6

38.0

No. of trains (round trip)

Transport capacity (round trip) [1,000 persons]

Train km [1,000 km]

600

15

18.0

3.2

2

8

600

28

32.4

33.9

19

12

900

30

52.2

36.4

21

Occupancy [person]

No. of trainsets /d (*)

(*) The number of trainsets does not include reserved trainsets. - The numbers of trains in the year 2020 is set around 1 train/h in each direction so as to raise the passenger demand. - The transport capacity in the year 2025 targets the traffic volume in the year 2030 since it is not practical that the capacity enhancement will be done soon after openning. Source: Study Team

In reality, the number of cars required is as follows:

The average distance traveled per day by a train in service is approximately 1,800 km (1.5 round trip)

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If the same inspection system as the one for the Japanese Shinkansen is used, regular inspection, which takes place within 30,000 km or 30 days, will have to be implemented within 16 days. (30,000 [km] ÷ 1,800 [km/day] ＝ 16.7 [days]) If regular inspection takes one day, then at least one reserved train is required. If there are more than 16 (number of days in the interval of regular inspection) trainsets (specifically, if more than 15 trainsets are used per day), the maximum number of trainsets to undergo regular inspection will be two per day. Therefore, if the number of trains in operation per day is increased to 15, the number of trains that will undergo regular inspection will increase by one, making it necessary to add another reserved trainset.

Shop-in inspection will be carried out within 600,000 km (or within 18 months), which includes bogie inspection (within 600,000 km or 18 months) and general inspection (within 120,000 km or 36 months). 600,000 [km] ÷ 1,800 [km/day] × 16/15 ＝ 355 [days] Therefore, each trainset will go through shop-in inspection once every 11 months. Given this interval, the shop-in frequency can be calculated from the number of shop-in days (bogie inspection takes 2 days and general inspection takes over 3 weeks but an average of 2 weeks will be used). When there are 20 trains, 20 × 2 [weeks] ÷ 11/12 [year] ＝ 47.7[weeks/year] It will take 48 weeks per year. In other words, there will always be one train at the workshop going through regular inspection.

In reality, the schedule for regular inspection and shop-in inspection can be adjusted to cut down on the number of reserved trainsets.

In addition, certain trains will need to be secured for emergency purpose or train failure. Table 3-22 shows the number of trains needed. Table 3-22 Number of Passenger Trainsets and Number of Cars Needed No. of reserved trainsets Backup for Reserved for Emergency/failure inspection/shop-in

Year

No. of cars in a trainset

No. of trainsets /d

No. of trainsets required

No. of cars

2020

8

2

2

1

5

40

2030

8

19

3

2

24

192

2050

12

21

3

2

26

312

Source: Study Team 

Freight transport

The freight trains will operate 10 round trips a day (20 trains). However, there will not be any freight trains operating on the weekends (departing on Saturdays and Sundays). Two 14-car trainsets (24 TEU, total length of 290 m) will be coupled to form one train, providing transport capacity of 48 TEU.

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Table 3-23 Freight Train Configuration and Number of Trains

Year

Section

2030

Johannesburg – Durban

2050

Johannesburg – Durban

Trainset [Car]

28 (coupling of two trainsets with 14 cars each) 28 (coupling of two trainsets with 14 cars each)

Maximu m load capacity per train [TEU]

No. of trains [round trip]

Transport capacity (round trip) [TEU]

Train km [1,000 km]

No. of trainsets /d (*)

48

10

960

11

40

48

10

960

11

40

(*)The number of trainsets does not include reserved trainsets. Source: Study Team

The train inspection system will be similar to the one used by the conventional trains in Japan. The regular inspection will be carried out within 90 days. Since it is possible to conduct the inspection during day time when a freight train is not in operation, it is not necessary to have reserved trainsets for regular inspection.

Shop-in inspection will carry out within four years or 600,000 km. Inspection of the main components and general inspection will be carried out alternately. Since the freight trains in this project operate relatively short distance, shop-in inspection at every four years is appropriate. If the shop-in time is about 2 weeks on average and there are 45 trainsets in operation, 45 × 2 [weeks] ÷ 4 [years] ＝ 22.5 [weeks/year] there will be 23 weeks of shop-in inspection. This means that no two trains will go through shop-in inspection at the same time.

Based on the above conditions, one trainset will be allocated as backup for the shop-in inspection. In addition, two trains each (for one set of trains going in both directions) will be stationed at Johannesburg and Durban, a total of four trains, as backup for train failure.

Table 3-24 Number of Freight Trainsets and Number of Cars Needed No. of reserved trainsets Backup for Reserved for failure, etc. inspection/shop-in

Year

No. of cars in a trainset

No. of trainsets /d

2030

14

40

4

2050

14

40

4

Source: Study Team

105

No. of trainsets required

No. of cars

1

45

630

1

45

630

f) Hypothetical Train Diagrams Figure 3-39 shows a hypothetical train diagrams formulated based on the above transport plan.

Figure 3-39 Hypothetical Train Diagrams Passenger Train (stops at only 2 stations) Passenger Train (stops at every station) Freight Train 【2020】Partial Service: Pietermaritzburg–King Shaka International Airport 0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

Pietermaritzburg

Durban King Shaka Airport

【2025】Full Service: Johannesburg–King Shaka International Airport 0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

Johannesburg Heidelberg

Standerton Volksrust Newcatsle

Lady Smith Estcourt

Pietermaritzburg

Durban King Shaka Airport

【2050】Full service: 25 years later 0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Johannesburg Heidelberg

Standerton Volksrust Newcatsle

Lady Smith Estcourt

Pietermaritzburg

Durban King Shaka Airport

Source: Study Team

g) Review of Freight Train Operation during Day Hours As explained earlier, from the perspective of ensuring safety, the operation hours of the high-speed passenger trains and the freight trains must be separated to avoid passing. Under such circumstances, having the passenger trains operate from morning to night and the freight trains operate during the night hours is desirable in terms of providing convenience to the passengers. However, since not too many passengers are expected to use the high-speed railway soon after its launch, it is necessary to think of

106

alternatives to increase the number of freight trains for operation. The following is a train operation plan assuming that freight trains are also operated during day hours.

Conditions, etc. 

Business travelers are expected to be the main customers for the passenger train. Therefore, the train will arrive at the destination by 10 a.m. and the first train to depart in the evening will be after 17:00.



To provide convenience to passengers, the times for the first and last passenger trains shall remain the same as if the freight trains were not operating during the day so that customers will have adequate time for activities at the destination.



Freight trains can operate as soon as the operation hours of the passenger trains are over. By contrast, even if the operation hours of the freight trains end, the loading and unloading of the freight may cause delay. In order to minimize impact on the punctuality of passenger trains, one hour shall be set aside before operation of the passenger trains starts.

Figure 3-40 shows a hypothetical train diagram based on the above conditions.

Figure 3-40 Hypothetical Train Diagram (in the case of freight trains operating during the day) Passenger Train (stops at only 2 stations) Passenger Train (stops at every station) Freight Train 0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

Johannesburg Heidelberg

Standerton Volksrust Newcatsle

Lady Smith Estcourt

Pietermaritzburg

Durban King Shaka Airport

Source: Study Team

Review Results 

The passenger trains will operate 13 round-trips (6 round trips in the morning hours and 7 round trips in the evening hours) and the freight trains will operate 5 round trips during the day. In general, the passenger trains cannot operate during the hours between 11:00 and 17:00.



There will be 6 passenger trains and 9 freight trains in operation.

7) Car Depots and Maintenance Depots a) Car Depot

107

Maintenance (cleaning, inspection, and repair) plays an extremely essential role in ensuring the safety and comfort of high-speed trains. Light maintenance, such as cleaning of the car compartments, can be done during shuttling of the train at the station. However, most of the maintenance is integrated as part of car scheduling and is performed systematically at car depots. The maintenance system and rolling stock structure are closely related. The Shinkansen inspection system will be applied to this project. Differentiated by the scale of the car depots, there will be a workshop at Durban and a car depot at Johannesburg, splitting the functions according to the type of inspection each will perform. Table 3-25 shows the inspection system and locations for maintenance.

Table 3-25 Inspection System and Inspection Sites for High-speed Rolling Stock Type of inspection Daily inspection

Regular inspection

Bogie inspection

General inspection

Inspection content

Interval

Inspect the operation and functions of pantograph, running system, brake, door Within 48 locking device, etc. hours Verify the functions of train, including the pantograph, main circuit, control devices, brakes, condition and function of bogies, and insulation of electrical parts. Check the tread condition of bogie and detect flaw in car axle

Within 30 days or 30,000 km

Location

Duration

Car depot Approximately or 1 hour workshop Car depot Approximately or 3 hours workshop

The main components of the bogie are taken apart to inspect the wheel axis, wheel, driving Replacement Within 1 year system, brake, main motor, etc. The bogie is of bogie takes and 6 months Workshop replaced with a spare one to enhance the approximately or 600,000km efficiency of inspection. 1 day The whole car is inspected. The main components are taken apart and disassembled to inspect the detailed parts. They are Within 3years replaced with spare components to enhance or 1.2 million the efficiency of inspection. Repair of the car km body, painting, and repair of the interior compartment are also carried out.

Workshop

Approximately 10 days

Source: Study Team

General inspection takes time so one trainset is assigned. Besides the inspection day, the train is in the same condition as a spair train. Regular inspection is carried out during day time after the train returns to the car depot. Calculating using the inspection recurrence within the running distance of 30,000 km, regular inspection of 2–3 trains will be carried out every day. Daily inspection is carried out during the day but mostly after the last train.

The exterior of the car is cleaned using a car washing machine at the car depot. The interior is cleaned at the station or the car depot. Ad hoc car inspection, ATC function test, and others are carried out after the train returns to the car depot.

108

It is desirable to set up the car depot next to the station. The site is selected taking into consideration the required land space. For the Johannesburg area, the candidate site is in the Tambo Springs area near the site where a container terminal is to be constructed. For the Durban area, the candidate site for the car depot is inside the container terminal to be built at the former airport site due to the densely populated areas in Durban.

The following are the different functions and main equipment at the car depot. Table 3-26 also shows the main inspection facilities needed by a car depot.

Table 3-26 Main Car Inspection and Repair Facilities Name of depot

Johannesburg depot

Durban workshop

Description 24 lines to accommodate arriving and departing trains, 4 lines at inspection area (daily inspection, regular inspection), wheel milling line, temporary inspection area 24 lines to accommodate arriving and departing trains, 4 lines at inspection area (daily inspection, regular inspection), wheel milling line, temporary inspection area, bogie inspection/general inspection building

Main facilities Facilities for car inspection line (rooftop inspection scaffold/inspection pit, etc.), Car-washing equipment, ATC feature testing equipment, axle flaw detector, under-floor type wheel lather, lifting jack, ceiling crane, forklift, etc.

The abovementioned depot-related facilities, bogie replacement facilities, bogie inspection facilities (bogie disassembling/assembling equipment, bogie running test equipment, car wheel lathe, facilities for disassembling/ assembling and inspecting main motor, facilities for general inspection (equipment to remove/outfit car body, painting equipment, equipment to disassemble/assemble/repair various equipment, etc.), and general testing equipment, etc.

Source: Study Team

The storage track and building are designed to secure the effective length of tracks for the freight trains and in case the passenger trains need to lengthen to 12 cars to meet higher demand in the future. It is desirable to acquire land that has space to expand, as the number of trains may increase in the future.

Figure 3-41 shows the Durban workshop, which is the main car depot of this project.

109

110

Substation

Source: Study Team

155

310

Stablimg Tracks

21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32

Stabling Tracks

310

310

Car Washing Equipment

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

310

1780

Track Maintenance Depot

Figure 3-41 Durban Workshop

Inspection Shed

Temporary Inspection Line

Inspection Line ４

Inspection Line ３

Inspection Line ２

Inspection Line １

Wheel Turning Shed

Work Shop

760

Office

Car Body Painting Shop

210

b) Maintenance Depot The maintenance depots are allocated based on the following concepts for the safety of maintenance works at the tracks: 

Maintenance works are carried out during the maintenance hours that have been set aside in advance when there will not be any train in operation. Specifically, the freight trains will not operate in the late-night hours on Saturdays and Sundays (early mornings of Sundays and Mondays) in order to secure six hours between 23:00 to 5:00 o’clock to carry out maintenance works during this time frame.



All maintenance works, no matter whether they are performed inside or outside of the station, are centrally controlled by the dispatcher at the operation control center.



Confirmation of safety after maintenance works is performed by a “confirmation car.”



The confirmation car leaves the car depot one hour before the regular trains start service and returns to the car depot 10 minutes before the regular trains start service.



In Japan, the car depot for the Shinkansen is set up at an average interval of 50 km, where the confirmation car operates. In recent years, the confirmation cars have become high-speed (100 km/h) and energy-efficient.



This project assumes that high-speed confirmation cars will be used; therefore, the confirmation car depots will be set up at an interval of approximately 75 km.

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4.

Issues and Solutions for the Proposed Technology/System

1) Cost Reduction This project is also required to keep the initial cost down. Table 3-27 shows the changes made to a typical Shinkansen specification in order to deliver such cost reduction.

Table 3-27 Cost Reduction List Facility

Typical Shinkansen specifications

For this project

Track

Slab track (ballast-less track)

Ballast track (track on ballast bed) However, slab tracks are used in tunnels and sections for operation at 300 km/h

Overhead Heavy compound catenary or simple Simple catenary catenary

catenary

(recently

constructed

Shinkansen lines) Train

LCX (Leaky Coaxial cable) method

radio

Space wave LCX (inside tunnels)

Source: Study Team

Ballast track keeps the initial cost down; however, it requires more labor and higher cost for maintenance. Ballast track will be used for this project as part of the efforts to enhance employment. Although ballast track can also reduce train noise, high-speed operation may kick up the ballast, causing damage to the car body. For this reason, it is advisable to use resin or other such material to stabilize the ballast and use slab track for the sections where the passenger trains will operate at 300 km/h.

The Shinkansen uses heavy compound catenary for overhead catenary; however, the recently constructed Shinkansen sections used simple catenary, which has a simple structure and is more affordable. It is believed that simple catenary can also deliver 300 km/h thanks to technological advances.

The train radio will use the space wave type to keep the cost down. Besides tunnels, there is no particular problem with the current technology.

Other cost reduction options include downgrading the specifications of the operation management system, getting rid of the ticketing and automatic ticket gate system by offering only non-reserved seats, and so on. It can also contribute to cost reduction to adopt dead sections instead of changeover sections. However trains should coast on the sections in that case

112

2) Measures for Continuous Steep Gradient Sections Since this route will pass through continuous steep gradient areas in the Estcourt–Pietermaritzburg and Pietermaritzburg–Durban sections, the issues are whether the passenger and freight trains can negotiate these sections with good performance and how to determine the longitudinal gradient.

When operating in a continuous steep gradient section, a train needs to have strong power to climb the ascending gradient and sufficient braking capability to go downhill. Since the Shinkansen passenger train on the Hokuriku Line (Takasaki–Karuizawa section), which is a continuous steep gradient section at 30‰ for 30 km, has solid performance, negotiating the 30‰ continuous steep gradient on this route is unlikely to have any problem.

Freight trains with a distributed traction system, which performs well on steep gradient, will be used. It is assumed that these freight trains will be mounted with the same traction motors and braking system as the ones used for Shinkansen. Therefore, they will be capable of negotiating the 20‰ continuous steep slopes.

Based on the above, the longitudinal gradient will be set at under 20‰ for the continuous steep gradient sections on this route and both the passenger and freight trains will need to have the capabilities to negotiate these continuous steep gradient sections.

3) Enhancing the Efficiency of Container Handling Cargo handling at both the Durban and Johannesburg terminals is inefficient and takes long time, hindering container transport. The high-speed freight transport of this project requires the two terminals to improve efficiency and shorten time in the handling of containers.

One way to improve the efficiency of cargo handling at container terminal is to adopt the E&S (Effective & Speedy Container Handling System) system used by JR Freight in Japan. It refers to loading and unloading cargoes at the departure and arrival tracks (under the overhead line).

Figure 3-42 Comparison of the Conventional Cargo Handling Method and E&S System -

Conventional cargo handling method Arrival on main line

-

→

Decoupled locomotive from container train

→

Transfer to loading track

→

Decoupled from shunter

→

Unloading & loading

→

→

Coupled with locomotive for main line

Unloading and loading

Source: Study Team

113

→

Coupled with shunter

Transfer to main line

E&S System Arrival on main line

→

Departure

→

Departure

With the conventional method, after the container train arrives at the station, it will be coupled with a shunting locomotive and transfers to a loading and unloading track for cargo handling. It will transfer back to the departure track, switch to a locomotive for main line and then depart. The E&S system enables unloading immediately after arrival and departure immediately after loading, thus eliminating the complicated shunting procedures and drastically shortening the cargo handling time.

Some precautions are required. Since cargoes will be handled under the overhead lines, it is necessary to install a safety system to ensure that the breakers will cut off power to the overhead lines during cargo handling. In addition, cargoes shall be handled carefully so as not to get into contact with the overhead lines.

The existing Durban and Johannesburg terminals both use the conventional cargo handling method. Adopting the E&S system at the high-speed railway container terminals at Durban and Johannesburg can improve efficiency and shorten the cargo handling time. The E&S system also has the merit of eliminating the need to purchase new diesel locomotives for shunting.

4) Security The South African railway has security problem. Since crime is rampant at the stations and on the trains, the reality is that mid-to-upper income passengers are avoiding the railway. Furthermore, signaling cables are often stolen, causing disruption to train service. The measures currently taken by Gautrain serve as good reference.

Gautrain allocates many security guards at stations and onboard trains to prevent crime. They also serve as information officers to the passengers. Surveillance cameras are installed at important facilities at the stations, on trains, at substations, and at the gates along the line. The images can be seen from the operation control center. There are designated operators at the operation control center to monitor the camera images and give instructions to security personnel. The opening and closing of the gates along the railway line can also be seen from the operation control center. These measures will help to create an environment for passengers to use the railway with peace of mind.

This project will take measures focusing on the allocation of security personnel and installation of surveillance cameras.

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(4) Operation Entity 1. Organizational Plan At this time, it is difficult to determine whether operation of the high-speed railway will be entrusted to an existing company or to a newly established company. It is because the current railway operators in South Africa are separated into passenger transport and freight transport; it is not clear what roles they will play in high-speed railway operation in the future. Furthermore, the supervisory authorities for passenger and freight operators are also different. It is necessary to step up coordination efforts. Therefore, regardless of which entity, we will present a plan for a complete organization equipped with all the necessary functions for operating the high-speed railway. That organization is tentatively named “headquarters.”

The high-speed railway system is highly safe and reliable due to the closely-intertwined technologies of rolling stock, track, electricity, and so on. For this reason, its organizational structure shall be as simple as possible and the missions and responsibilities of each department shall be clearly defined. A simple organization will make it easier to identify and resolve issues. It will also help to streamline works.

In view of this, we have structured five managing departments for the high-speed railway headquarters. They are the Station Operation and Marketing Department, which is responsible for functions closely related to revenues and passenger services, including station operation and sales; the Transport Department, which is responsible for functions directly related to train operation, including transport planning, traffic control, and operation of trains; the Rolling Stock Department, which is responsible for the maintenance and management of rolling stock; the Facilities Department, which is responsible for the maintenance and management of all high-speed railway facilities; and the General Affairs Department, which is responsible for the operational planning, personnel, finance, resources, and safety of the company as a whole. Sections shall be set up under the department as necessary. Japan, which has operated high-speed railway for many years, has similar departments.

Freight operation, which does not exist in Japan’s high-speed railway, will be under the jurisdiction of the Station Operation and Marketing Department since it is closely related to revenues and services.

On the other hand, the operation sites will be assigned to one of the departments, according to the nature of their works. By doing so, the managing departments can provide appropriate support to the operation sites based on their actual operation conditions. Technical information required for ensuring safety, which is the utmost important task in the operation of high-speed railway, is managed comprehensively by technological system, making it possible to share information between the headquarters and operation sites.

Figure 3-43 gives an overview of the organization described above.

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Figure 3-43 Organizational Chart Headquarters

Station Operation and Marketing Department

Transport Department

Rolling Stock Department

Facilities Department

General Affairs Department

Passenger Stations

Drivers’ Depots

Workshop

Track Maintenance Depots

Freight Terminals

Conductors’ Depots

Car Depot

Electric Facility Maintenance Depots Signal and Telecommunications Facility Maintenance Depot

Source: Study Team

2. Personnel Table 3-28 shows the personnel required for operation of the high-speed railway. The calculation was performed using Japan and similar projects in the past as reference.

Table 3-28 Personnel Required for the Operation of High-speed Railway (Estimate) (person) Management Department Station Operation and

Operation Site 60

Passenger stations

900

Transport Department

60

Freight terminals

500

Rolling

20

Train crew

Facilities Department

90

Car depots and workshop

550

General

170

Track

990

Electricity

300

Marketing Department

Stock

1,070

Department

Affairs

Department

Signaling

and

280

telecommunication Total of management

400

Total of operation sites

departments Total

4,990

Source: Study Team

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4,590

Chapter 4 Evaluation of Environmental and Social Impacts Chapter 4 Evaluation of Environmental and Social Impacts 4

(1) Analysis of the Current State of the Environment and Society 1. Analysis of Current State 1) Overview of Project Areas The three route options proposed for the project will pass through the four provinces of Gauteng, Mpumalanga, Free State, and KwaZulu-Natal. The map below shows the geographical locations of the four provinces.

Figure 4-1 Map of South Africa by Province

Source: http://mapserver2.statssa.gov.za/profiles2006/index.aspx

Based on the locations of the departure station and destination station (the most important among all the stations along the route), the population of each province, and importance of the cities along the route, Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal provinces are much more relevant to this project than the other provinces. Therefore, this report focuses on these two provinces as the observation areas of the project.

Since Chapter 1 (2) and (3) have already given a detailed explanation of the project areas, they will not be explained again in this section in order to avoid repetition.

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2) Environment of the Project Areas and their Surroundings a. Geography and Geology The Geographical formation of the areas where the project sites located can be roughly divided into hilly terrain and plateau plain in the inland area and plain field in the coastal area facing the Indian Ocean.

With regard to the area ranging from Johannesburg in the center of Gauteng Province to Mpumalanga Province which Route A and B will pass by, and to Free State Province to be crossed by Route C, the landscape is basically that of a plateau plain of 1,500 to 1,800m in height above sea level with very little rolling, though the rolling may be more remarkable in some region.

The slope in the area bordering Free State and KwaZulu-Natal Province looks somewhat steep and the altitude of the north part of KwaZulu-Natal Province lowers to around 1,200m. Although the urban areas such as New Castle in the northwest of the province are located on the plateau plain, the landscape of the interurban areas are basically hilly. As the valleys in hilly areas are in the process of being eaten away by rivers, there are places where the difference between a valley and the top of a hill even exceeds 100m.

When going further down to the south of the KwaZulu-Natal Province, the hilly area along Route A appears to be a gently descending slope extending to the coastal area, while the landscape of areas along Route B and C looks more undulating with some mountains ascending to around 1,500m in height, but then it descends all the way to the coastal terrace in Durban via Pietermaritzburg where the altitude is 600m. Although the center of Durban is located in a coastal plain, the area of plain field is small as compared to that of Johannesburg in that the Durban Metropolitan extends even to the steep coastal terrace area which is merely a few kilometers away from the shoreline.

The geology of South Africa, including the project areas, is basically made up of three types of rocks derived through three types of formation processes. In general, the land in South Africa is solid and stable. The southern part of Africa, including South Africa, is a rare region in the world that has few earthquakes or volcanic activities. Continuation of the same topography, landscape, and geological conditions from ancient times is believed to be the main reason for the abundant reserves of precious minerals, such as gold and diamond.

With respect to the geology of the project areas, it is composed of sedimentary rock and igneous rock having taken form since the Mesozoic Age and evolved into the current hilly terrain and plateau plain in the inland area. As seen in the cut earth of highways along the candidate routes of this project, most of the unlined slopes look stable. Therefore, it can be inferred that the geological conditions of the project areas are generally sound and solid.

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Table 4-1 Geological Conditions of South Africa Geological type

Formation process

Specific examples

Sedimentary

Sedimentary rock is formed from material that has been

Sandstone,

Rock

carried by rivers to the ocean where it deposited. The

limestone, shale,

sediment compacts, and due to heat and other factors,

etc.

forms into rock. Igneous Rock

Molten rock cools at different rates, causing a variety of

Granite, basalt,

rock types to form. Sometimes the rock cools extremely

andesite

slowly and thus remains underground. Diamonds may form under such conditions. Metamorphic

Metaphorphic rock forms when the rock that has already

Gneiss, quartzite,

Rock

formed due to either lava activity or sedimentation is

schist

reformed under extreme heat and pressure. A good example of this in South Africa is the folded mountains of the Cape. Source: http://www.environment.gov.za/Enviro-Info/prov/geol.htm

b.

Climate

The geographical location of South Africa is at east longitude 16–33.2 degrees and south latitude 21.8– 35.2 degrees. The climate is varied: the west is a temperate zone with dry climate, the south has Mediterranean climate, the east has west coast maritime climate, and the inland has tropical savanna climate. The mean annual rainfall is approximately 450 mm, which is much lower than the world average of 860 mm. The mean annual temperatures and rainfall volumes of the nine provinces are classified based on their relative characteristics below. Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal provinces, the major areas in this project, are the temperate/non-dry type.

The summer temperature of Johannesburg in Gauteng province is around 17–28ºC and winter temperature is around 5–19ºC, with an annual average of 18ºC. The summer temperature of KwaZulu-Natal province is around 23–33ºC and winter temperature is around 16–25ºC, with an annual average of 23ºC. On the other hand, the predominant wind direction in Johannesburg is northwesterly throughout the year and the mean annual wind speed is 8 knots/h. The predominant wind direction in Durban is northeasterly and the mean annual wind speed is 10 knots/h.

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Table 4-2 Climate Type of Provinces in South Africa Classification by mean annual rainfall Rainfall Province mm 700

Classification by mean annual temperature Temperature Province ºC >25 Limpopo North West Northern Cape 24.5-25 Western Cape Free State Mpumalanga

General classification

High temperature /dry

Northern Cape North West

High temperature /semi-dry

Limpopo