Provide a national approach to climate and weather prediction model development
Joint initiative – – – –
Bureau of Meteorology CSIRO Australian universities > access to common system DCCEE
Planning for ACCESS development: –
–
Puri (2005): 'Blueprint for ACCESS' Analysis of stakeholder requirements Developed scope of ACCESS Puri (2005): 'Project Plan for ACCESS' Provided scientific justification for ACCESS Made recommendations for preferred options components for ACCESS The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
3
ACCESS Schematic
OBS
Assimilation (4DVAR) Dynamic Veg. (LPJ)
Atmosphere (UM)
Assimilation
NWP Seasonal Climate Climate Earth system
Land surface (CABLE)
Coupler (OASIS)
Chemistry (UKCA)
Ocean Carbon (CSIRO)
Ocean AusCOM (MOM4)
Sea-ice (CICE4)
Assimilation (BODAS)
OBSand Climate Research The Centre for Australian Weather A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
4
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
ACCESS NWP systems APS1 Unified Model
ACCESS-G N320L70
ACCESS-R 12.5kmL70 ACCESS-TC
ACCESSSREP, Fire Wx
ACCESS-C 4kmL70
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
ACCESS Global and Regional Ensemble prediction System, AGREPS AGREPS is being run routinely in research mode – 24 members, 23 perturbed + 1 control – 60km L70 – Run to 10-days – Detailed evaluation is being performed – Ensemble-based products being developed
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
7
APS0: 80km, L50 APS1: 40km, L70
GASP
ACCESS-G
ACCESS among the top performing models
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
ACCESS-TC among top 4
ACCESS-TC among top 2
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
ACCESS coupled model IPCC AR5 runs Atmosphere UM 7.3 Standard or New Land Surface MOSES or CABLE 1.4
Coupler OASIS 3.2.5
Ocean GFDL MOM4p1
Sea Ice CICE 4.1
Atmosphere: N96 – 1.875° lon x 1.25 ° lat; 38 levels Ocean and sea ice: 1° x 1° grid, enhanced tropical, high latitudes; 50 levels The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
2 versions of ACCESS coupled model completed • ACCESS1.0 ‒ Our basic version ‒ Standard atmospheric physics options
‒ MOSES land surface model (MetOffice) • ACCESS1.3 ‒ Our 'aspirational' version
‒ New atmospheric physics options including CAWCR modifications ‒ CABLE Australian community land surface model
ACCESS1.3
ACCESS1.0
• Additional output from 6 simulations uploaded to the Earth System Grid
IPCC-AR5 WG1 Fig 9.7 Assessment versus 13 metrics
• ACCESS output now used in ~100 CMIP5 studies • Good performance in international model evaluation studies
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
ACCESS1.0
“Based on the overall statistics for all indices ... the ACCESS1.0 and MPI-ESM-P models appear to perform better than the other models with respect to all four reanalyses, ...”
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Land-Ocean surface air temperature contrast
• Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science use ACCESS1.3
All forcings
• Suite of CMIP5 simulations expanded • Results published to CMIP5 Earth System Grid
GHG change only
• ACCESS1.3 used in detectionattribution studies
Natural changes only
Lewis and Karoly (2014; AMOJ)
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Vertical and horizontal resolution increase in POAMA-3
Atmosphere/Land: ~250km
Atmosphere/Land: ~150km
Ocean: ~200km
Ocean: ~100km The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
PECDAS POAMA Ensemble Coupled Data Assimilation System
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
o Conduct CMIP5 runs with ACCESS1.4 Essentially ACCESS1.3 + bug fixes + OASIS MCT CABLE2.0
o Commence planning for ACCESS2.0 N216L85O0.25 (?) and N96L85O1.0 (?) GA6.0 CABLE2.0
Land Surface
Atmosphere
GA6.0
JULES or CABLE 2
Coupler
OASIS3-MCT
New atmospheric component • 85 levels in the vertical • ~130 km or ~70 km horizontal resolution • Significant physics improvements
Trial coupled model simulation completed • 20-year technical test Global mean sea surface temperature (
Ocean MOM4p1
Sea Ice
CICE 5
Same as that for ACCESS1.3 – awaiting release of MOM6 code
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
)
Atmosphere
Trace gases CO2
Trace gas fluxes Land surface CABLE2 with terrestrial biogeochemistry
WOMBAT (Matear et al)
CICE
ACCESS-OM
• Physical model as per ACCESS1.4 • Land carbon fluxes from CABLE2 with biogeochemistry • Ocean carbon fluxes from WOMBAT (World Ocean Model of Biogeochemistry And Trophic-dynamics), includes a two-component plankton model (phytoplankton and zooplankton) The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
o Bureau supercomputer Oracle/Sun constellation Located in Melbourne Sandy bridge chip ~100 Tflops o National Computational Infrastructure Fujitsu PRIMERGY Located at the ANU Canberra 3592 nodes, 57472 processsers 7200 TB/short data storage ~1.2 PFlops
NWP Computing Capacity of National Meteorological Centres #1 Trend Line
1.E+08 100P #1 Machine 54 Pflops China
System Performance (Top500 HPL Rmax)
10P 1.E+07 ECMWF
US-NCEP #500 Trend Line
PetaFlops 1.E+06
Bureau of Meteorology
ECMWF UK Met Office Korea Met Agency Environment Canada US-National Center for Environmental Prediction
1.E+05 100T
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
1.E+04 10T
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Present state • UM has own file format o Tools are available to convert to/from netCDF, modify land mask and other boundary conditions • Coupled model does not run from the atmospheric model UI o Coupled model scripts are not easily portable o Mixture of configuration and control • Archiving and Post-processing not well integrated with model • System is not in a state where you can simply pick it up and run it o Though Melbourne University are currently running it
Present state Coupled model does not run from the atmospheric model UI o Difficult for new users o Coupled model scripts are not easily portable Mixture of configuration and control o No automatic archiving of experiment configurations • Archiving and Post-processing not well integrated with model o CMIP5 post-processing still an expert task • System is not in a state where you can simply pick it up and run it •
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Ambition All users (COE and CAWCR) have the same modelling environment o Seamless across organisations o Documentation and support o Efficient workflows o Reproducibility and traceability o Testing and release management • Capability to do the same wide range of experiments o NWP, seasonal, climate, ESM o Global, regional, idealised o Availability of observations and initial conditions •
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Climate & Weather Science Laboratory a virtual laboratory for the Australian research community Objective: The virtual laboratory is a new community project to establish an integrated national facility for research in climate and weather simulation and analysis. Location: National Computational Infrastructure (NCI) at the Australian National University Development Organizations: Australian Bureau of Meteorology (www.bom.gov.au) National Computational Infrastructure (nci.org.au) CSIRO Marine and Atmosphere Research (www.csiro.au/cmar) Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (www.cawcr.gov.au) ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (www.climatescience.org.au) Goals: • To reduce the technical barriers to using state of the art tools; • To facilitate the sharing of experiments, data and results; • To reduce the time to conduct scientific research studies; and • To elevate the collaboration and contributions to the development of the Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS)
Climate Data Management Service a data repository and management service for the Australian research community Objective: The Climate Data Service is a community project to establish a climate data publishing and management service and repository of climate model and observation data collections for scientific research. Location: National Computational Infrastructure (NCI) at the Australian National University Development Organizations: Australian Bureau of Meteorology (www.bom.gov.au) National Computational Infrastructure (nci.org.au) CSIRO IM&T and CSIRO Marine and Atmosphere Research (www.csiro.au) Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (www.cawcr.gov.au) ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (www.climatescience.org.au) Goals: • To facilitate the sharing of experiments, data and results with the Australian and international climate community; • To ensure the integrity, traceability, discoverability, and accessibility of data; • To improve the reproducibility and sharing of workflows in data processing; and • To facilitate the collaboration and contributions of the Australian community with the World Climate Research Project (WCRP) though the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF).
RDSI Node Status (http://www.rdsi.uq.edu.au/node-statuses)
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
NeCTAR CWSLAB
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Rose: edit coupled model configuration
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Cylc: coupled model build
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Cylc: coupled model run
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Concluding comments ACCESS development has made significant progress – Operational implementation of NWP component of ACCESS Significantly improved performance
– Fully coupled ACCESS assembled and tested AR5 runs completed and submitted Prototype seasonal prediction system developed
– Development of high resolution version for severe weather prediction Radar data assimilation Fire weather studies
– Implementation in research mode of the ACCESS ensemble prediction system – Progress in developing infrastructure However a lot more needs to be done UM Technical Infrastructure Group
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
37
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Kamal Puri Research Programme Leader Earth System Modelling Programme
