Southern Copper Corporation December, 2015
0
I. Introduction
1
Management Presenter
Presenter
Title
Raul Jacob
Vice President, Finance & CFO
2
Safe Harbor Statement
This presentation contains certain statements that are neither reported financial results nor other historical information. These estimates are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the safe-harbor provisions of the Mexican securities laws. These forward-looking estimates are subject to risk and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the expressed in the forward-looking statements. Many of these risks and uncertainties relate to factors that are beyond Grupo Mexico’s ability to control or estimate precisely, such as future market conditions, commodity prices, the behavior of other market participants and the actions of
governmental regulators.
Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-
looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this presentation. Grupo Mexico does not undertake any obligation to publicly release any revision to these forward-looking estimates to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this presentation.
3
Corporate Structure
100.0% (*) AMERICAS MINING CORPORATION 87.5% (*)
Public Float 12.5% (*)
99.29 %
SCC Peru Branch
99.96 %
Minera Mexico
(*) As of September 30, 2015
4
Copper – The Best Fundamental Story in Commodities Solid Fundamentals
Copper Consumption by Region
► Copper has the best fundamentals in the basic materials space: ― ―
―
―
Other 13%
2015 demand driven by the US strong recovery and the EU export oriented industries. China: Expect 3% demand growth. Automotive and state electrical infrastructure demand partially offset by weak housing market.
Japan 5%
Additional production expected 2015-2016, will be offset by productions costs, restocking in Europe, ore grade decay and scrap scarcity.
Europe 17%
Current copper prices below estimated (WM) incentive price for greenfield production of approximately $3.50. Wood Mackenzie Dec 2014
LME Copper Cash Price vs. Inventories 1,000,000
4.50
900,000
4.00
800,000
3.50
700,000
3.00
600,000
2.50
500,000
2.00
400,000
1.50
300,000
1.00
200,000
shanghai
30-Oct-15
29-Jun-15
23-Feb-15
17-Oct-14
16-Jun-14
10-Feb-14
4-Oct-13
3-Jun-13
25-Jan-13
21-Sep-12
21-May-12
16-Jan-12
9-Sep-11
-
6-May-11
100,000
0.00
3-Jan-11
0.50
COMEX
Asia Ex China 12%
Copper Consumption by End-use
5.00
LME
China 44%
USA 9%
Transport 12% Consumer Products 29% Electrical Network 19%
Industrial Machinery 10%
LME Cash
Wood Mackenzie 2014
Construction 30%
5
Southern Copper Strengths
►Highest copper reserves of the industry ►Excellent organic growth projects
►Low cost, fully integrated operations ►Experienced management team
►Strong financial performance / investment grade since 2005 ►Outstanding dividend history
►Good long-term copper & molybdenum fundamentals 6
II. Overview of Operations
7
Company Overview Copper Reserves 1:
69.9 mmt
2014 Cash Cost:
$ 1.05/lb.
9M 2015 Cash Cost
Mexico Buenavista La Caridad
$ 1.06/lb.
2015 Estimates (@ $2.50 x Lb of Cu): Copper Production: 747 kt (+70 kt) Sales: $ 5.1 B EBITDA: $ 2.1 B 41% of Sales #1 copper company by reserves 2 #5 copper producer 3 #10 copper smelter 3 #8 refinery 3 Source: Company Filings Notes: 1 Copper contained in reserves based on US$2.90 per pound of copper as of December 31, 2014 2 Based on available companies reports 3 Wood Mackenzie Limited 2014
Santa Eulalia Santa Barbara
San Martin
Charcas San Luis Potosi Taxco
Peru
Key Copper open pit mines Underground mines Smelters and Refineries
Cuajone Tia Maria
Ilo
Toquepala
8
World’s Largest Copper Reserves Copper Reserves as Reported
SCC Highlights
80
Copper Reserves (Mt)
70
69.9
60
56.7
► #1
mine life among copper producers
► #5
world’s largest producer of mined copper
► Highly diversified geographical presence
50
► Four
36.6
40
32.6
large-scale open-pit mines
31.8 27.0
30
20.7
20
13.0
Mine Life 10.7
Source
10K
Annual Rep.
10K
20F
Annual Rep.
Reserve Rep.
Annual Rep.
20F
Period Dec.31, 2014 Dec.31, 2014 Dec.31, 2014 Jun. 30, 2014 Dec.31, 2014 Dec. 31, 2014 Dec. 31, 2014 Dec. 31, 2014 Cu Price
$2.90
N/A
$2.00
3.65
N/A
N/A
N/A
$3.10
VALE
Antofagasta
Rio Tinto
Glencore Xstrata
Anglo American
BHP Billiton
Freeport
Codelco
0
SCC
10 120 105 100 80 20F
59
60
Dec. 31, 2014 $3.35
34
40
34 25
21
21
18
BHP Billiton
Rio Tinto
Xstrata
20 0 SCC
SCC after Anglo Codelco expansion American
Freeport
9
Geographic Footprint & Product Diversification 9M 2015 Revenue by Product
Acid Zinc 3% Molybdenum 5%
Other 5%
9M 2015 Revenue by Market
Mexico 35% Other 2%
4%
Peru 7%
Silver 4%
Chile 2% Brasil 6%
Europe 11% Copper 79% (76 pp refined or further processed)
Asia 22% United States 15%
10
Low Cost Operations Cash Cost per Pound of Copper Produced Net of By-Products
Low Cost Drivers
1.5
Fully integrated low cost operations 1.00
1.05
1.0
1.12 0.98
1.06
(US$/lb)
0.71
World class assets Significant SX-EW production
0.5
Strong by-product credits Management focus on cost efficiency
0.0 2012
2013
2014
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
Operating Cash Cost per Pound of Copper Produced
Cost Structure (1)
2.50
(US$/lb)
2.00
Other 17%
1.75
1.92
1.88 1.66
1.67
Operating Materials 20%
1.64
1.50 Maintenance 18%
Fuel 15%
1.00
0.50 2012
2013
2014
1Q15
2Q15
Labor 14%
3Q15 (1) 9M 2015
Power 16%
11
C1 Cash Cost Composite (C/lb Cu)(2)
2014 Copper Production Cash Cost by Company
(1)
300 250
Vale
Antofagasta FreeportMcM Rio Tinto
200
BHP
Codelco
Anglo
Glencore
150
Global Weighted Avg. 154 c/lb
SCCO 100 50 0 0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Cumulative Production (Paid Mlb Cu)
Source: Wood Mackenzie (Metals Costs Benchmarking 2014 Q4), SCCO cash cost per SCCO filings (1) C1 cost estimates from Wood Mackenzie (Metals Costs Benchmarking Q4 2014), except for SCCO where the 2014 historical cash cost figure reported by the company is shown (SCCO 2014 C1 cost estimate from Wood Mackenzie is 71 c/Ib Cu) (2) C1 cost is the direct cash cost of producing paid metal, incorporating mining, processing and offsite realization costs, with an allowance for the by-product credits (3) Maximum, minimum and consensus mean price forecasts by various brokers (Bloomberg) as of March 31, 2015
12
III. Financial Overview
13
SCC Financial Summary (US$ MM) Copper Price (LME) US$ per pound Income Statement: Net Revenues EBITDA EBITDA Margin Net Income Dividends paid per share Balance Sheet Statement: Cash & Equivalents Total Assets Total Debt Total Liabilities Total Shareholders' Equity Cash Flow Statement: Capital Expenditures Free Cash Flow 1 Dividends paid to common shareholders Total Debt / EBITDA
2013
2014
LTM 2015
2015 E
3.32
3.11
2.69
2.50
$5,953 2,954 50% 1,618 0.68
$5,788 2,728 47% 1,333 0.46
$5,263 2,277 43% 1,007 0.42
$5,080 2,087 41% 763 0.30
$1,673 10,996 4,205 5,434 5,534
$364 11,552 4,206 5,715 5,804
$504 12,974 5,951 7,422 5,517
$1,109 13,152 5,978 7,337 5,781
$1,703 154 574
$1,530 (174) 381
$1,094 (212) 338
$1,310 (240) 240
1.4x
1.5x
2.6x
2.9x
1 Free Cash Flow defined as net cash from operating activities less capital expenditures.
14
Solid Financial Performance Top Tier Margins and Conservative Leverage for Increased Financial Flexibility Amortization Schedule
2015 Total Debt / EBITDA (x)
9M 2015 EBITDA Margin (%)
2
2
BHP
49%
1
BHP
2020
1.43
1
SCC
43%
2
Freeport
2022
40%
2025
Rio Tinto
31%
Antofagasta
2.20 2035
1
SCC
2.76 2040
2
$1,100
2
24%
Anglo
2.89 2042
Freeport
$1,000
1
28%
Anglo
$51
2
Antofagasta
Vale
$500
1.74 2028
2
$300
1.46
2
Rio Tinto
$400
$1,200
1
1
23%
Source: Company Reports 1 9M 2015 2 1H 2015
Vale
3.80
Source: Company Reports 1 9M 2015 2 1H 2015
2045
$1,500
15
Investment Program to Significantly Increase Production Other projects
Board approved 2015-18
2013-14 Buenavista Molybdenum Plant 3Q13 $38M - 2K Tons Mo Cuajone: Variable Cut-off Grade + HPGR 2H13 - $158M - 22K Tons Cu, 0.7K Tons Mo Buenavista SX/EW III 4Q14 - $525M 120K Tons Cu
Buenavista: - Concentrator Plant 4Q15 - $1.4B 188K Tons Cu, 2.6K Tons Mo - Mine equipment $505M
Buenavista Zinc Conc. 2016 $332M 16K Tons Cu - 55K Tons Zn Los Chalchihuites 2016 $140M, 26K Tons Cu
El Pilar 1Q17 - $307M - 20K Tons Cu ,
El Arco Conc & SX/EW 2017 $2.6B – 190K Tons Cu, 105K Oz Au
Toquepala Concentrator Expansion 4Q17 - $1.2B - 100K Tons Cu , 3.1K Tons Mo Tia Maria SX/EW 2Q18 – $1.4B - 120K Tons Cu
2014-2018 Capex Program Overview (MM)
Cuajone Concentrator Expansion - $500M – 50K Tons Cu, 0.7 Tons Mo
Ilo Smelter & Refinery Expansion
Empalme Cu Smelter 2017 $812M – 350K Tons Cu Cont. Copper Refinery 2017 - $318M 350K Tons Cu Cont. Zinc Refinery - $600M – 120K Tons Zn
2014-2018 Copper Production Forecast (‘000 MT Cu) 1,160
1,200
2,300
2,400
Los Chancas. - $1.2B - 100K Tons Cu, 7.5K Tons Mo
1,020 1,000
2,000 1,600
1,530
747
800
1,400
677 1,200
600
1,200 800
640
400
200
400
0
2014 Source: SCC
909
2015
2016
2017
2018
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
16
Best-in-class Mining Projects Reaching Completion Providing Competitive Cash Costs and Increased Production Levels Key Differentiators to Achieve Lower Capital Intensity
Project Capital Intensity at SCCO Projects SCCO Project Pipeline Initial Capex Type (US$MM)
Brownfield Projects Cuajone variable cut-off grade + HPGR Toquepala concentrator expansion Buenavista SXEW III Buenavista concentrator expansion Pilares Total / Weighted Average Intensity Greenfield Projects Tia Maria SXEW Project Angangueo Total / Weighted Average Intensity
•
Use of less capital intensive and environmentally friendly SX/EW technology for 45% of production growth
•
Significant economies of scale in infrastructure for 77% of production increase coming from brownfield expansions
•
Reduced mining preparation cost due to low pre stripping for Tia Maria and Buenavista projects
•
Experienced project development team focused on capital efficiency
% of Total Incremental Production Capital Intensity Capex Av. Cu Eq. (kt/a) (US$/tpa Av. Cu Eq.)
Expansion (X) Expansion (N) Expansion (N) Expansion (N) Extension
158.0 1,253.2 1,363.5 1,785.4 189.5 4,749.6
2.5% 19.9% 21.6% 28.3% 3.0% 75.3%
22.0 100.0 120.0 188.0 40.0 470.0
7,182 12,532 11,363 9,497 4,738 10,105
Probable
1,379.2
21.9%
120.0
11,493
Possible
174.7 1,553.9
2.8% 24.7%
10.4 130.4
16,798 11,916
2010-2014 Capex Evolution
Industry-Wide Capital Intensity Comparison vs. SCCO Projects
US$MM
Weighted Avg. Project Capital Intensity of Existing Projects US$ 000 per tonne of Cu Equivalent Annual Incremental Production
2,000
25
21.6
20
16.5
15 9.9
11.7
1,703
17.7
1,535
1,600 11.9
10.1
1,200
1,052
10 4.9
800
5
613 409
0
Restarts
Extensions of Expansions Expansions Existing Mine to Existing New Process Life Mine/Plant (X) Plant (N)
Brownfield - Industry
SCCO Brownfield
Probable
Greenfield - Industry
Source: Wood Mackenzie (Global Copper Mine Supply Summary, May 2014), SCCO filings and presentations
Possible
SCCO Greenfield
400 0
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
17
SCC’s Major Strengths SCC is the Premier Copper Play • World class assets in investment grade countries • #1 in reserves of any company with various exploration prospects - Increasing copper production • Capacity to deliver projects through flexible capital structure and significant cash generation capability. Investments focused on cost competitiveness • Fully integrated low cost operations • Outstanding dividend history • Experienced management with proven track record SCC EBITDA and % Margin $3,910
(in US$ millions)
$3,773 $2,945
$2,865
$2,728
$2,087
$1,814
Cu price
48.6%
56.0%
2009
2010
$2.34
$3.42
57.0%
2011
$4.00
57.0%
2012
$3.61
49.0%
2013
$3.32
47.0%
2014
$3.11
41.1%
2015 E
$2.50
18