PVSEC-18
19-23 Jan 2009
Overview on IEA PVPS Task 8 Activities
Study on Very Large Scale Photovoltaic Power Generation Systems IEA PVPS Workshop 21 January 2009 @ PVSEC-18 Kolkata, India
Task 8 OA Prof. Kosuke KUROKAWA Tokyo Institute of Technology 1
IEA PVPS Task 8
kurochan
PVSEC-18
19-23 Jan 2009
Solar Pyramid: PV Systems for 21st Century Gobi
1,300,000 km2
Sahara
8,600,000 km2 Total Land Surface Total Earth Surface
IEA PVPS Task 8
Covered by η =14% PV modules
(50% space factor assuming 10 % system energy efficiency) (=107 PWh/y =107×1012kWh/y)
384EJ/year PV Electricity (1 EJ = 1018J)
World Primary Energy Supply In 2002 = 379EJ/year 2
kurochan
PVSEC-18
19-23 Jan 2009
10 years ago: OUR FUTURE DREAM !
Nowadays: More Realistic !
Tokyo of Agriculture and Technology IEA PVPSUniversity Task 8
3
kurochan
PVSEC-18
19-23 Jan 2009
Task 8: Study on Very Large Scale Photovoltaic Power Generation Systems – VLS-PV 1998 (Task 6 – Subtask 5) 1999 – 2002 Phase I
Energy from the Desert:
Feasibility Study of Very Large Scale Photovoltaic Power Generation (VLS-PV) Systems 2003 – 2005 Phase II
Energy from the Desert:
from rgy Ene rt III e De s
the
Practical Proposal for Very Large Scale Photovoltaic Systems tedC u 2006 – 2008 Phase III tribPVSE 2008 s i r d Energy from the Desert:to be th EUptembe 4 e Very Large Scale Photovoltaic Systems @ b2urg, Sfor Socio-Economic Developments am H 2009 – 2011 Phase IV
Energy from the Desert:
Practical Project Proposals to Realise Very Large Scale Photovoltaic Systems (tentative) IEA PVPS Task 8
4
kurochan
PVSEC-18
19-23 Jan 2009
Ene r gy
the
Our Dream Team for 21st Century Energy
from Des ert I II
10 countries + 2 observers Japan (OA), Canada, Germany, Israel, Italy, Korea, the Netherlands, Spain, U.S.A., Australia, Mongolia (obs.), China (tentative. obs.). IEA PVPS Task 8
2007.9 IEA PVPS Task 8 Milan Meeting 5 5 kurochan 5
PVSEC-18
19-23 Jan 2009
Indicative Generation Cost (USD/kWh) Gobi
Sonora Sahara-Ouarzazate Negev Thar Great sandy
Sahara-Nema
Generation Cost (cent/kwh)
20.0 Module Price 15.0
4$/W 3$/W
10.0
2$/W 1$/W
5.0
0.0 2000 IEA PVPS Task 8
2200 2400 2600 2 Annual Irradiation(kwh/m /year)
2800 6
kurochan
PVSEC-18
19-23 Jan 2009
Sustainable VLS-PV Development Concept Sustainable State 1.5GW
1600 Installed PV power PV power to supply the grid Power needed to operate the facility
Capacity of PV System [MW]
1400
Local PV Module Factories
1200 1000
50MW module facility
50MW module facility
800
Regional Jobs= 25 700 man⋅Y Induced Production=3.5 times of initial investment
5MW module facility 5MW module facility 5MW module facility 5MW module facility
600
Cumulative amount of end-of-life modules
400
Total production scale of manufacturing facilities
5MW module facility
200
50MW module facility
50MW module facility
0 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Period [years] IEA PVPS Task 8
Lifetime: PV system=30yrs., facility=10yrs.
7
PVSEC-18
kurochan 19-23 Jan 2009
Practical Project Proposals to Realise Very Large Scale Photovoltaic Systems
Table of contents – Volume III 1. Introduction 2. World energy and environmental issues 3. PV and other renewable energy options 4. Socio-economic considerations 5. Financial aspects 6. Recent and future trends in PV technology 7. Recent trends in MW-scale PV system Installation
IEA PVPS Task 8
8. Future technical developments for VLS-PV Systems 9. Environmental and ecological impacts of VLS-PV 10. Global potential analysis 11. Case study on the Sahara desert 12. Case study on the Gobi desert 13. VLS-PV Roadmap 14. Conclusions and Recommendations 8
kurochan
PVSEC-18
19-23 Jan 2009
Mediterranean Case Studies 9
IEA PVPS Task 8 PVSEC-18
kurochan 19-23 Jan 2009
Middle East Case Studies Technology Country
Static, 300 tilt (TWh y-1)
1-axis tracking (TWh y-1)
2-axis tracking (TWh y-1)
CPV (TWh y-1)
Electricity Production in 2002 (TWh) [2]
Bahrain Cyprus Egypt Iran Iraq Israel Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Oman Qatar
43.5 604.3 65,102.4 106,994.4 28,263.4 1,329.6 6,014.9 1,165.4 669.0 13,894.9 748.0
46.3 643.1 69,283.3 113,865.6 30,078.5 1,415.0 6,401.2 1,240.3 712.0 14,787.2 796.0
22.1 306.8 33,048.9 54,315.2 14,347.8 675.0 3,053.4 591.6 339.6 7,053.7 379.7
32.4 450.0 48,478.4 79,673.2 21,046.3 990.1 4,479.0 867.8 498.2 10,346.8 557.0
6.9 3.6 81.3 129.0 34.0 42.7 7.3 32.4 8.1 9.8 9.7
Saudi Arabia
128,222.1
136,456.5
65,091.3
95,480.3
138.2
12,036.9 50,407.7 5,420.4 34,529.2
12,809.9 53,644.9 5,768.4 36,746.7
6,110.5 25,589.2 2,751.6 17,528.6
8,963.2 37,536.0 4,036.3 25,712.1
26.1 123.3 39.3 3.0
Syria Turkey UAE Yemen
IEA PVPS Task 8
10
kurochan
PVSEC-18
19-23 Jan 2009
Possible MEDITERRANEAN NETWORK TO GLOBAL NETWORK
IEA PVPS Task8 11
kurochan
IEA PVPS Task 8 PVSEC-18
19-23 Jan 2009
Capacity Trends of MW-scale PV installation 2020end > 6000 MW System Capacity (MW/system) Capacity of PV system [MW/system]
120
100
2010end ≈ 100 MW MW-scale PV system installation in each year
80
60
40
20
0 2001
IEA PVPS Task 8
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
12
kurochan
PVSEC-18
19-23 Jan 2009
Cumulative MW-scale PV installation
50%
8,000
40%
6,000
30%
4,000
20%
2,000
10%
Cumulativeinstallatoin[MW ]
10,000
0
Ratioof MW -scalePVinstallation
As of the end of 2007 - 724MW: 9.2% of all PV application in IEA-PVPS As of September 2008 - Over 1.7 GW (about 600MW over 10MW-scale PV) - More than 10% by the end of 2008
0% 2002
2003
2004
MW-s cale PV s ys tem s
2005 All applications
2006
2007
Ratio of MW-s cale
13
IEA PVPS Task 8 PVSEC-18
kurochan 19-23 Jan 2009
Global Potential Analysis Satellite images Converted to Reflectance Ground Cover Classifications
Feed Back
Rolling Ground Classification
NDVI Data set Vegetation Index
Weight and integrate
Ground Truth IEA PVPS Task 8
14
kurochan
PVSEC-18
19-23 Jan 2009
Classification of the Desert into Ground Surface Conditions
Original image Gravel desert
Desert steppe Desert stepe
Sand dune
water
green
15
IEA PVPS Task 8 PVSEC-18
kurochan 19-23 Jan 2009
Suitable Area on the world 6 deserts Negev Thar
Gobi Sonora
Sahara Great Sandy n.a.
low
availability
Crop 0.55
Steppe
0.45 0.35
high
Desert 0.25 0.15 NDVIymax
Total 6655×103 km2 Steppe
IEA PVPS Task 8
+
Desert 16
kurochan
PVSEC-18
19-23 Jan 2009
Solar Resource of World Six Deserts in TW Negev Thar Gobi Sonora Sahara Great Sandy n.a.
low
availability
high
Crop 0.55
Steppe Desert 0.45 0.35 0.25 0.15 NDVIymax
Steppe
+
Desert
772 PWh
772 TW in total 5.2 x as much as world energy demand in 2010 or 1.9 x in 2100 17
IEA PVPS Task 8 PVSEC-18
kurochan 19-23 Jan 2009
Careless Irrigation may cause soil degradation. To assure sustainable agricultural development, A New Approach comes .....
IEA PVPS Task 8
Agriculture in Sahara - IRA, Tunisia 18 kurochan -
PVSEC-18
19-23 Jan 2009
Our Team proposing ... PV power to agriculture in the desert or RO
Desalinated Water Brine Water
Large Possibility: [ PV + Agriculture ] 19
IEA PVPS Task 8 PVSEC-18
kurochan 19-23 Jan 2009
Expected Environmental Impacts & Potentials of VLS-PV Diffusion of VLS-PV Fossil fuel use Reduction in CO2 emission Increase in CO2 emission
Decrease in fossil fuel consumption Increase in fossil fuel consumption
Increase in non conventional energy use
Climate Climate Change
Stable ecosystem structure and diversity Change in ecosystem structure and diversity
Change mitigation
Decrease in extreme Increase in extreme events (floods, droughts events (floods, droughts fires) fires)
Increased carbon Reduced carbon sequestration sequestration in in soil soil and and woods woods
Biocapacity Biocapacity
Decreased plant Increased plant andand soil soil organisms species organisms species diversity diversity
conservation loss
Soil erosion (loss of nutrients and soil(nutrients moisture) Soil conservation and soil moisture)
IEA PVPS Task 8
Energy
Energy conservation depletion
Decrease in biomass resources
Increase in biomass Stable supply of use biomass resources
Land Land
conservation degradation (Desertification, (Desertification, Deforestation) Deforestation)
20
kurochan
PVSEC-18
19-23 Jan 2009
60MW PV Plant: Olmedilla (Cuenca) Presently World Largest PV Plant
21 08905 kurochan
IEA PVPS Task 8 PVSEC-18
19-23 Jan 2009
Cumulative MW-scale PV installation
10,000
50%
8,000
40%
6,000
30%
4,000
20%
2,000
10%
0
0% 2002
2003
2004
MW-s cale PV s ys tem s
IEA PVPS Task 8
Ratioof MW -scalePVinstallation
Cumulativeinstallatoin[MW ]
As of the end of 2007 - 724MW: 9.2% of all PV application in IEA-PVPS As of September 2008 - Over 1.7 GW (about 600MW over 10MW-scale PV) - More than 10% by the end of 2008
2005 All applications
2006
2007
Ratio of MW-s cale
22
kurochan
PVSEC-18
19-23 Jan 2009
Capacity Trends of MW-scale PV installation 2020end > 6000 MW System Capacity (MW/system) Capacity of PV system [MW/system]
120
2010end ≈ 100 MW
100
MW-scale PV system installation in each year
80
60
40
20
0 2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
23
IEA PVPS Task 8
kurochan
PVSEC-18
19-23 Jan 2009
Our Future Directions toward 2100 1,600
Geothermal Other REs
WBGU: German Advisory Council on Global Change
Primary Energy Supply [EJ/Y]
1,400
Solar heat
1,200 Solar electricity
1,000 800
Wind
600
Biomass adv
400 200 0 2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2100 2060
Biomass trad Hydro-PW Nuclear PW Gas Coal Oil 208 2070
YEAR IEA PVPS Task 8
24
kurochan
PVSEC-18
19-23 Jan 2009
Proposed Scenarios toward 2030-2050 & beyond
1974
2000
2010
2030 2050 PV module Technology
1G
2G
2100
kk-Ver.f08829
133TW cum 4.4TW/Y
3G Recycle
4.4TW/Y
Rooftop PV
Global Energy Mix
Developing Region Scenario + Storage SHS Mini-Grid Community Scale Grid Scenario (Micro-Grid) + Storage Community-Grid VLS-PV to Global-Grid Large Large Scale Scale to to Very Very Large Large Scale Scale PV PV + Storage International to Global Grid 25
IEA PVPS Task 8 PVSEC-18
kurochan 19-23 Jan 2009
Annual Net Installation including Replacement
Annual PV Installation [GW/Y]
Net Stock
800 GW
10 TW
World Total PV
VLS-PV Installation
133 TW
4.56 TW 4.26 TW/Y 1/3 World TPES 2.28 TW/Y 2.19 TW/Y
1070 GW/Y 120 GW/Y 20 GW/Y
IEA PVPS Task 8
75TW
236 GW/Y
Source: IEA PVPS Task 8 3rd Report ”Energy from the Desert”
26
kurochan
PVSEC-18
19-23 Jan 2009
Annual PV Market including Replacement Net Stock
800 GW
Investment for PV Installation [M$/Y]
Annual P. 120 GW/Y
75TW
10 TW
133 TW
4.26 TW/Y
1070 GW/Y
World Total PV
3.32 T$/Y
4.56 TW
3.41 T$/Y 375兆円/Y
365兆円/Y VLS-PV Installation
1.70 T$/Y 187兆円/Y
1.71 T$/Y
967 B$/Y
188兆円/Y
106兆円/Y
159 B$/Y 17.5兆円/Y 27.6 B$/Y
81.1 B$/Y 8.9兆円/Y
（1 $ = 110 Y）
3.03兆円/Y IEA PVPS Task 8
Source: IEA PVPS Task 8 3rd Report ”Energy from the Desert”
27
PVSEC-18
kurochan 19-23 Jan 2009
10 years ago: OUR FUTURE DREAM !
Nowadays: More Realistic ! Please, Wait for the 3rd Volume!
Ene r gy
the
from Des ert I II
Free Copy @EU-PVSEC!! Tokyo of Agriculture and Technology IEA PVPSUniversity Task 8
28
kurochan
