Solar Energy Business Developments
Tatsumi Maeda
September 18, 2008
Director & Senior Managing Executive Officer General Manager of Corporate Solar Energy Group KYOCERA CORPORATION
Forward-Looking Statements Certain of the statements made in this document are forward-looking statements (within the meaning of Section 21E of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Act of 1934), which are based on our current assumptions and beliefs in light of the information currently available to us. These forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors. Such risks, uncertainties and other factors include, but are not limited to: general economic conditions in our markets, which are primarily Japan, North America, Europe and Asia, particularly China; unexpected changes in economic, political and legal conditions in China; our ability to develop, launch and produce innovative products, including meeting quality and delivery standards, and our ability to otherwise meet the advancing technological requirements of our customers, particularly in the highly competitive markets for ceramics, semiconductor parts and electronic components; manufacturing delays or defects resulting from outsourcing or internal manufacturing processes which may adversely affect our production yields and operating results; factors that may affect our exports, including a strong yen, political and economic instability, difficulties in collection of accounts receivable, decrease in cost competitiveness of our products, increases in shipping and handling costs, difficulty in staffing and managing international operations and inadequate protection of our intellectual property; changes in exchange rates, particularly between the yen and the U.S. dollar and euro, respectively, in which we make significant sales; inability to secure skilled employees, particularly engineering and technical personnel; insufficient protection of our trade secrets and patents; our continuing to hold licenses to manufacture and sell certain of our products; the possibility that future initiatives and inprocess research and development may not produce the desired results; the possibility that companies or assets acquired by us may require more cost than expected for integration, and may not produce the returns or benefits, or bring in business opportunities, which we expect; events that may impact negatively on our markets or supply chain, including terrorist acts and outbreaks of disease; the occurrence of natural disasters, such as earthquakes, in locations where our manufacturing and other key business facilities are located; the possibility of future tightening of environmental laws and regulations in Japan and other countries which may increase our environmental liability and compliance obligations; fluctuations in the value of, and impairment losses on, securities and other assets held by us; and changes in accounting principles. Such risks, uncertainties and other factors may cause our actual results, performance, achievements or financial position to be materially different from any future results, performance, achievements or financial position expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. We undertake no obligation to publicly update any forwardlooking statements included in this document.
1
PV Global Market Trend
2
Contribution of Subsidies to Expansion of European and U.S. Markets Europe USA Feed-in Tariff
Incentives
Net Metering
RPS
Feed-in Tariff + Net Metering
Incentives + RPS
Spreading Feed-in Tariffs ⇒ 22 countries Please refer to accompanying note on page 1.
Growing Incentives ⇒ 38 states RPS: Renewables Portfolio Standard
3
Toward the Realization of Low-Carbon Society of Japan
Photovoltaics Mkl
14 12 10
Public & Industrial 300MW
to VS. 2005:
10×
Public & Industrial 3,000MW
40× 13 53.1GW
Residential
3,200k homes
Around for PV
Equivalent to 70% of new houses
8
Residential
320k homes
14.3GW
Around for PV
6 4
6.69
3.5
1.42GW
Around for PV
1.4
2
0.35 0 Output conversion CF: 4kW/kl
CY 2005
Please refer to accompanying note on page 1.
CY 2020 Current
Ongoing effort
CY 2030 Best scenario
Forecast
Long term perspective for growth in use of photovoltaic energy / Estimate by Kyocera Corp.
4
EU
3.6×
Principal Market Outlook Japan 0.9GW 4.5×
4.7GW
3.6
3.2
0.5
GW
2.3
0.2
10.4× 2.6GW
0.4
1.8
GW
0.3
2.4
USA
0.2
GW
0.2
2.0
1.4
1.3
FY08
FY09
FY11
FY13
FY3/08 09(E) 11(E) 13(E)
FY08 FY09 FY3/08 09(E)
FY11 11(E)
FY13 13(E)
1.0
0.4
India Korea 0.9GW 0.25 30× 8.3×
0.35
0.25
0.7
GW
GW
FY08 FY09 FY3/08 09(E)
11(E)
FY11
FY13 13(E)
0.5 0.4
0.13
Left: Policy driven Right: Conservative
FY08 FY3/08
0.15
0.05
0.03
0.03 FY09
09(E)
11(E)
FY11
0.1
FY08 FY09 FY11 09(E) 11(E) 13(E) FY3/08
FY13
FY13 13(E)
3.3×
7.0GW
World Market Size Estimate by Kyocera Corp.
2.2×
5.2 3.6
2.9
3.7
4.7GW
5.2× 10.9GW
3.4× 7.2GW
8.7 5.8
2.1
FY3/08
Please refer to accompanying note on page 1.
FY09 Forecast
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
5
Kton
Comparison between Expansion Plans of Material Manufacturers and Market Requirements
200
Required Amount of Material for Semiconductors + Solar Products Requirement for Solar Products
150 GRAY
New material manufacturers
100
Requirement for Semiconductors
Material 原料不足 Shortage 50
YELLOW
Existing material manufactures
0 FY3/05 FY05 06
07
Estimate by Kyocera Corp.
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Forecast
Please refer to accompanying note on page 1.
6
Demand Forecast in Four Principal Markets GW 25 Large Power Plants
20
15 Public & Industrial
10 Residential
5 Stand Alone
0 FY07 FY3/07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Forecast Estimate by Kyocera Corp. Please refer to accompanying note on page 1.
7
Overseas Solar Photovoltaic (PV) System Manufacturers Cell / Module Maker ●
Major ★ New ●
Solon
★ ★ ● ★ Q-Cells ●★★★ ★★ ★ ★★★★●● Conergy ★★ ● ★ ★★ ★★ ★●★EverQ ★★★ Ersol●★ ★★ ★★● ★ ★ ★★● ★ ★
★
★
★
●
★ ●★
SCHOTT
★●
Wurth
★
★● ● ★ ★
SolarWorld
★
Wacker
★★●
★
★ ★ ★★★
★ ★ ★ ★★●★ ★★ ★ ★★ ★★★ ● ★ ★
●
● ★ ★ ●
★
★ ★★★ ● ● ★★ ★ ● ★★ ★ ●
★
Please refer to accompanying note on page 1.
8
Market Conditions: Overview Expansion of subsidy policies + Increase in production of material = Rapid increase in number of manufacturers
Europe, US, Korea, etc. ⇒ Continuous market growth Increase in production volume by existing manufacturers + new entrants ⇒ Stabilization of supply and price > 300 Companies
EEG* in Germany: reexamination of buyback price of feed-in tariff
annual decrease rate 5% ⇒ 8~10% *EEG= Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz
Beginning Beginning of of "intense "intense competition competition era" era" Gain Gain comprehensive comprehensive competitive competitive advantages: advantages: "cost "cost competitiveness, competitiveness, technologies technologies for for development development and and quality" quality" Please refer to accompanying note on page 1.
9
About KYOCERA Solar
10
Technology Market Trend GW
Multi c-Si (kyocera)
12 GW
16
10
14
14.1%
C
company
8.5% B company 8.6% 10 8.3%
10.9GW
Kyocera
70%
6
H company 10.4%
5.2
1.1
1.5
5.1%
5.4%
1.6 6.9%
2.2 10.0%
80%
8.7
D company 9.6%
E company 8.1%
4
100% 90%
F company G company 10.9% 11.0%
8
2
CdTe
Current Module Efficiency (%)
12 A company 8
CIGS
T/F Si
3.6
7.0
e k r Ma
pa x tE
n o i ns
60% 50% 40%
28.0% 30% 20%
Thin Film Production Share
10% 0%
0 FY3/05
FY06
FY07
FY08
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
Forecast
Multi c-Si or Thin-film ? Total cost, long-tern reliability・・・ Please refer to accompanying note on page 1.
SOURCE: PV News, Lux Research
11
Influence of conversion efficiency on Solar System Costs
14%
8% construction cost
Up significantly
100%
Construction cost 80%
Rack, etc.
Mounting racks approx. 1.7 times
Inverter
Inverter
Solar cells
No. of cells approx. 1.7 times
60%
40%
20%
0%
Residential
Multi c-Si Film 勝者は? トータルコスト、長期信頼性・・・ Multior c-SiThin or Thin -film ? Total cost, long-tern reliability・・・ Please refer to accompanying note on page 1.
SOURCE: PV News, Lux Research
12
Improvement of conversion efficiencies Cost competitiveness: Improvement of conversion efficiencies
Silicon
Casting
○ Improvement of conversion efficiencies
Improvement of crystalline quality Impurity contamination measures
Wafer slicing
Cutting
○
Solar cells
○
Optimization of slicing conditions
Passivation
Thinner wafers
Reactive Ion Etching (RIE) technology
Improvement in quality of sliced material
Solar modules
○ Optimization of material Optimization of fabrication process
High sheet resistance emitters Improvement of contact metal
Vertical integration ⇒ Aims to maximize conversion efficiencies with optimization in all production phases Please refer to accompanying note on page 1.
13
Productivity Cost competitiveness: Productivity 1. Higher cell efficiencies Back
FY3/05
15.7%
16.5%
3.67W/cell
3.86W/cell
Conversion efficiencies Power output
Technologies
Contact
Current: 3BB
2BB
2BB
3BB
Cell
Approx. 17% improvement from current power output
FY10
FY09
17.5%
Target 18.5%
4.26W/cell Back Contact
4.50W/cell Higher efficiencies for Back Contact
16.5% 4.06W/cell Lager Cell (156mm square)
2. Thinner cells FY3/05
06
07
240 / 200μm Productivity improvement of approx. 40% compared to FY3/05 Please refer to accompanying note on page 1.
08
09・・・
180μm
Further advancement of thinner cells
100% achievement
14
Development of Differential Products Snow resistance Building unifiable
Snow resistance Design oriented Design oriented
High temperature resistance
High temperature resistance
Compact stand-alone power source
Black Back sheets
Compact stand-alone power source
Snow resistance / weighting durability High temperature resistance / heat durability Design oriented / black back sheets Building unifiable / frame-less Compact stand-alone power source / small size
High temperature resistance
Frame-less
Compact stand-alone power source
Annual average temperature map
Compact stand-alone power source Please refer to accompanying note on page 2.
15
PV Modules for 5400Pa Objective: Snow resistance (5400Pa) Challenges: Frame strength Module durability Snow load analysis Direction Direction of of short short frame frame
Fall away
Test example using real products
Direction Direction of of long longframe frame
Black Modules Objective: Better appearance Challenges: High temperature resistance
TEMP. Analysis
Frameless Modules Objective: Compatibility for various installation methods Challenges: Metal fitting reliability Without frame
Please refer to accompanying note on page 1.
16
Development of Solar Modules FY10
FY09
FY3/05 ・・・・・
Target
Cell
15.7%
16.5%
2BB
3BB
180μm
Larger
17.5%
16.5% Cell
Back Contact 156mm×156mm
175W
200W
210W High power output
220W
Module Black Module
Frame less
Snow resistance (5400Pa) Please refer to accompanying note on page 1.
17
No.1 Quality Evaluation in Germany **in 15 Makers
(Best: 1.0, Worst: 6.0) Output
Evaluation Items
Durability Reliability Installation
Quality is True “DIFFERENTIATION” Please refer to accompanying note on page 1.
KYOCERA with THE QUALITY 18
Major Characteristics Required of Solar Cells ・ Reduce total system cost, including installation cost ・ Stable long term output (high reliability)
1. Costs Factor with biggest impact on costs, ⇒ Kyocera’s back contact cells: 18.5%
Conversion efficiency VS thin-film 8~11%
2. Long-term reliability Kyocera’s multi-crystalline cells: Over 20 years of testing and evaluation
VS thin-film ??
Multi-crystalline solar cells or thin-film solar cells ? Please refer to accompanying note on page 1.
19
Kyocera's Production Expansion Plan of PV Systems 700
650MW
600
550MW
Back Back Contact Contact Cell Cell
500MW
High High Efficiency Efficiency
500
18.5% 18.5%
400
400MW California Solar Initiatives
300
Amendment to EEG in Germany
200 100
300MW
EEG in Germany
Residential subsidies in Japan (until FY06)
0 FY 3/92 93
94
95
96
97
Please refer to accompanying note on page 1.
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
Forecast
10
11
12
20
Germany
China
Singapore
South Korea
Japan
Australia
network built on long-term 8 sales bases worldwide “Salesrelationships of trust” Germany “Anticipating customer needs” Beijing USA Czech Republic S-Korea Kyocera Mexico Tianjin Japan Mexico 240MW/yr Ise 150MW/yr Plant construction completed Singapore Plant construction completed
USA
Brazil
4 production bases worldwide
Brazil Australia “Production where markets are” “Market-oriented module design” "Quick delivery”
Czech Republic Please refer to accompanying note on page 1.
China
Japan / Ise
Yohkaichi
Mexico 21