Soil moisture and climate change Prof. Dr. Daniela Jacob Climate Service Center, Hamburg Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg Professor II, Universität Bergen, Norwegen
Picture taken from: lbeg.niedersachsen.de
Land surface temperatures
Troposphere temperature
Ocean surface temperatures
Upper ocean heat content
Humidity
Marine air temperatures
Stratospheric temperature
Sea level rise N. H. thaw depth
Arctic sea ice
Glacier mass balance
N. H. snow cover 1850
1900
1950
2000
1940
2000
Warning indicators: Arndt et al. 2009 (http:www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-the-climate)
Land precipitation is changing significantly over broad areas
Increases
Decreases Smoothed annual anomalies for precipitation (%) over land from 1900 to 2005; other regions are dominated by variability. Credit: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Chapter 3, Figure 3.14
Neueste Ergebnisse der globalen Klimamodellierung
© CSC, 2012
Base period for all scenarios: 1971 to 2000
Projected Patterns of Precipitation Changes
Klimaänderungen: Ergebnisse für Europa
Übereinstimmung der Modelle
Niederschlagsänderung Multi-Model-Mean (2021-2050)-(1961-1990) Szenario A1B
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Soil-Moisture-Feedbacks
Courtesy of: Stefan Hagemann, MPI
Evapotranspiration Regimes Soil moisture W coupling via evapotranspiration E Evaporative Fraction EF = actual E / available energy EF Dry
Transitional
Soil moisture limited
Wet Energy limited
EFmax
0
Wpwp
Review on soil moisture feedbacks: Seneviratne et al. (2010)
Wcrit
Soil moisture W
Transitional Soil Wetness WS Number of months/year with Wpwp < WS < Wcrit from ECHAM5/MPIOM ensemble mean monthly climatology for 1961-1990
Teuling et al. (2009)
Driver of evapotranspiration E (moisture and radiation) Estimation based on land surface model simulations Yearly correlations of E with global radiation and precipitation.
Transitional soil wetness WS Number of months/year with Wpwp < WS < Wcrit from ECHAM5/MPIOM ensemble mean monthly climatology
1961-1990
A1B 2071-2100
Similar patterns as E-T correlations of Seneviratne et al. (2006) obtained from three GCMs
Evapotranspiration Regimes Soil moisture W coupling via evapotranspiration E Evaporative Fraction EF = actual E / available energy EF Dry
Transitional
Soil moisture limited
Wet Energy limited
EFmax
0
Wpwp
Review on soil moisture feedbacks: Seneviratne et al. (2010)
Wcrit
Soil moisture W
Droughts and .....
Picture taken from:images.nationalgeographic.com
Changes in heavy precipitation in 1931-2000
Dresden, August 2002
Münster, 17.03.2011
Chirlesti mudflow (Buzau Carpathians)
Product: mud flows connected to long/ heavy precipitation
Scales in Hydrology
Picture taken from: http://www.bgs.ac.uk/changingwatercycle/hydef.html
Addressing the Bandwidth of the Climate Projections
Klimasignalkarten für Deutschland Ziel: Identifikation von Regionen mit “robusten” Klimaänderungssignalen, in denen Klimaänderungen auf Basis aktueller Klimaprojektionen als “sehr wahrscheinlich” anzusehen sind Methode: state-of-the-art Ensemble regionaler Klimaprojektionen (~30 Simulationen) Dreistufiger Robustheitstest: - Einigkeit der Simulationen (agreement, wie IPCC) - Signifikanz der Änderungen - geringe Sensitivität gegenüber kleinen Verschiebungen der betrachteten Zeiträume Zeitraum (hier 2036 – 2065), Schwellwerte, Parameter, räumliche Darstellung wählbar.
2m Temperatur: Alle Regionen zeigen robuste Änderungen
Tage mit >25mm Niederschlag: Regionen die mindestens einen Robustheitstest nicht bestanden haben in grau
Multi-model chain to assess navigation conditions in the Rhine River
Nilson et al. (2010)
Challenges
• Ensemble simulations to take into account the uncertainties in CC development • Bridging the scales from global to local (multi-model chains) • Local recycling and their effects on ecosystems like wetlands and swamps Process understanding: • Land use – land cover changes and their influence on soils and soil moisture • Climate change and ground water Monitoring of on-going changes: • Long term measurements sites, dense and/or representative • Homogenous, quality controlled and accessible data are needed 19
Vielen Dank!
Kontakt: Prof. Dr. Daniela Jacob Climate Service Center Abteilung Klimasystem Fischertwiete 1 20095 Hamburg
[email protected] www.climate-service-center.de
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