Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting Risk and Resilience: Viva la Revolución!

Final Program

Sheraton San Diego • San Diego, California, USA 11-15 December 2016

2016 Council

2016 Program Committee

President: James H. Lambert

Margaret MacDonell, President-Elect and Chair

President-Elect: Margaret MacDonell

Stanley Levinson, Co-Chair

Secretary: Jennifer Kuzma

Jennifer Rosenberg and Jill Drupa, SRA Secretariat

Treasurer: Jacqueline Patterson Treasurer-Elect: Bilal Ayyub Past President: Pamela Williams Executive Secretary: Brett Burk

Councilors: Joe Arvai Terje Aven Frederic Bouder Robin Dillon-Merrill Bruce Fowler Sandra Hoffmann Ragnar Lofstedt Linda Teuschler Robyn Wilson

SRA Worldwide Headquarters 1313 Dolley Madison Boulevard, Suite 402, McLean, Virginia, USA 22101 +1.703.790.1745; FAX: 703.790.2672 www.SRA.org, [email protected]

Terje Aven

James Lambert

Hiba Baroud

Steve Lewis

Fred Boelter

Lawrence Martin

Samrat Chatterjee

Myriam Merad

Genya Dana

Alison Pecquet

Allen Davis

Regis Pouillot

Royce Francis

Laura Rickard

Jeremy Gernand

Moez Sanaa

Elisabeth Gilmore

Vanessa Schweizer

Christopher Greene

Katherine von Stackelberg

Sarah Henry

Amina Wilkins

Karin Hoelzer

Matthew Wood

Sandra Hoffman

Janet Yang

Amber Jessup

Jun Zhuang

Sheraton San Diego 1380 Harbor Island Drive, San Diego, CA 92101 Phone: 619-291-2900

On the cover: San Diego metropolitan area from Mt. Helix, 1971. Photograph courtesy of Dr. Philip R. Pryde, Professor Emeritus of Geography, San Diego State University.

Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting 2016 Final Program

Meeting Highlights

Table of Contents Award Winners . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Registration Hours/Conference Events/Committee Meetings . . . . . . . . 3 Specialty Group Meetings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Specialty Group Mixers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Exhibitors/Exhibition Hours . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Workshops . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Plenary Sessions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Monday Schedule at a Glance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Tuesday Schedule at a Glance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Wednesday Schedule at a Glance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Scientific Program Sessions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19-25, 32-45 Poster Reception/Session . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26-31 Author Index . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 Sheraton San Diego Floor Plans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53

Meeting Events! All events take place at the Sheraton San Diego. You can start with a continuing education workshop, beginning at 8:00 AM Sunday (see pages 6-9), and then gather with everyone at the opening reception, 6:007:30 PM (cash bar), and continue through to the T-Shirt Giveaway on Wednesday (14 December, 5:00 PM). The meeting includes three Plenary Sessions, a complimentary box lunch on Monday, complimentary Awards Banquet luncheon on Tuesday and a sit-down luncheon on Wednesday, for which tickets are available for $25 from the registration desk until Monday afternoon. This luncheon precedes the Wednesday plenary, which is open to all! Join as we honor SRA luminary Paul Slovic and benefit from his unique insights on a deeply compelling topic that anchors the meeting theme. Meeting Theme – Risk and Resilience: Viva la Revolución! highlights the peaceable revolution in science & technology innovation, participation of global citizens, and service – emphasizing advances that positively impact our health and well being, environment, and cultural and social responsibility. Poster Reception! This year’s poster reception with food and a cash bar will be in the Grande Ballroom on Monday evening 6:00-8:00 PM. Poster set up starts at 4:00 PM, and poster presenters will be at their posters for questions and discussion during the reception. Vote for the best poster awards on the App! Don’t miss it!!

Oral Presenter Ready Room Reminder - See Page 10 for Hours If you are presenting an oral presentation, don’t forget to upload your presentation in the Speaker Ready Room (Marina 1) at least 24 hours prior to your presentation. If you have already uploaded your presentation file, come by the Ready Room to ensure it has been received and uploaded correctly.

Final Program

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2016 Specialty Group Winners Applied Risk Management Daniel Hudson Decision Analysis and Risk Caitlin Hammond Dose-Response Qiran Chen Ecological Risk Assessment Maas Gardezi Economics and Benefits Analysis Meilin He Emerging Nanoscale Materials Vignesh Ramchandran Engineering and Infrastructure Travis Carless Exposure Assessment Hawk Arachy Foundational Issues in Risk Analysis Heimir Thorisson Ricarda Scheele Microbial Risk Analysis Abhinav Mishra Hao Pang Risk and Development Doris Jimena Roncancio Benitez Risk Policy & Law Caroline Leitschuh Security & Defense Jorge González

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Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting

Student and International Travel Award Winners Waldo Ahumada Elizabeth Alves Artem Anyshchenko Zoya Banan Christian Beaudrie Myriam Beaudry Djillali Benouar Viktor Bergion Sabine Bonneck Helen Canjar Travis Carless Amaury Caruzzo Alexandre Chabrelie Kuan Ping Chao Ann Charles Kuo-Wei Chen Yang-Ju Chen Dalaijamts Chimeddulam Yu-Chuan Chuang Zachary Collier James Ede Daniel Eisenberg John Eleblu Rui Gaspar Floris Goerlandt Meilin He Jason Holley Hua Hsuan Hsing

Xi Hu Jialing Huang Tailin Huang Shao Zu Huang Jacqueline Hunke Marketa Janickova Khadija Khan Kelly Klima Jude Kurniawan Xue Lei En-Hsuan Lu Hang Lu Henry Lujan Vineet Madasseri Payyappalli Theodore Mansfield Alyssa Mayeda Abhinav Mishra Alexis Mraz Sithembiso Sifiso Msibi Anne-Marie Nicol Ali Pala Shih-Chun Pan Chengfang Pang Roxana Prieto Recarey Barbara Rath Giovanni Sansavini Ryan Scott

Piet Sellke Molly Simis Wilkinson Hwanseok Song Elspeth Spence Scott Thacker Michele Toledo Swathi Veeravalli Nicolas Villalba Yevheniya Volchko Sarah Vos Bairong Wang Dong Wang Christopher Wirz Elizabeth Wooten Charlene Wu Fanfan Wu Siyuan Xian Kun Yang Sherri Yeh Hao Yin Ming-Chien Yin An Gie Yong Shupei Yuan Nagwan Zahry Minxiang Zhang Xiao Zhang Conrad Zorn

Conference Events, Committee Meetings Sunday 11 December SRA Council Meeting Noon–5:00 PM - Spinnaker Editorial Staff Meeting 4:00–5:30 PM - Seabreeze 1 Editorial Board Meeting 5:30–6:30 PM - Seabreeze 1

Membership Committee Meeting 5:00-6:00 PM - Room 515 World Congress Planning Meeting 2018 & 2021 5:00-6:00 PM - Room 514

DARSG/Springer Environment Systems & Decisions Editorial Board Meeting 7:30–8:30 AM - Room 515

Tuesday 13 December

Specialty Group Chairs Breakfast 7:30–8:30 AM - Room 514

Audit Committee 7:00–8:00 AM- Room 515

Monday 12 December

Grad Student Breakfast 7:00–8:00 AM - Room 514

All SRA Students, Young Professionals, and 2015 and 2016 New Members (badges with a New Member ribbon) are welcome to attend.

Finance Committee 7:00–8:30 AM - Room 518 Conferences and Workshops Committee 7:30–8:30 AM - Room 514 Publications Committee 8:00–8:30 AM - Room 515 Opening Plenary Session 8:30–10:00 AM - Harbor Island Ballroom Specialty Group Meetings Pick up your box lunch by the SRA registration desk

12:15–1:25 PM - See page 4

Education Committee Breakfast 7:00–8:00 AM - Room 518

Poster Reception 6:00–8:00 PM - Grande Ballroom

SRA Welcome Reception – (cash bar) 6:00–7:30 PM - Bayview Lawn

New Member, Students/Young Professionals Breakfast 7:00–8:00 AM - Nautilus Foyer

Wednesday 14 December

Luncheon Noon - Harbor Island Ballroom $25, tickets available at the registration desk until Monday afternoon.

Regions Committee 7:30–8:30 AM - Room 511

Plenary 12:30-1:25 PM - Harbor Island Ballroom

Plenary Session 8:30–10:00 AM - Harbor Island Ballroom

T-Shirt Giveaway

SRA Awards Luncheon and Business Meeting Noon–1:30 PM - Harbor Island Ballroom

5:00 PM - Bayview Foyer

Communications Committee 5:45–6:30 PM - Executive Center Boardroom SRA Specialty Group Mixers 6:00–7:30 PM - See page 4 SRA Council Meeting 6:30–10:00 PM - Marina 5 Coordination Meeting: Specialty Group Chairs and Contributors to “Principles, Guidelines & Core Knowledge for Analytic Support of Risk Management” 7:35 PM - Quinn’s Ale House

Stay until the end of the sessions and receive a T-Shirt

*** Two Lunches Included *** in your Registration Fees Monday Box Lunch, Tuesday Awards Banquet Please see the Regsitration Desk if you have dietary restrictions

All Meetings Are Open All meetings announced in this program are open, everyone is welcome and encouraged to attend.

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Committee Meetings and Events Specialty Group Meetings Monday, 12 December - 12:15-1:25 PM All Specialty Group Meetings will take place during lunch time today. Pick up your box lunch near the registration desk and attend the meeting(s) of your choice. 12:15-12:35 PM Dose Response - Nautilus 2 Economics & Benefits Analysis - Marina 2 Occupational Health & Safety - Nautilus 5 Risk Communication - Nautilus 1 Security & Defense - Marina 6 12:40-1:00 PM Ecological Risk Assessment - Nautilus 2 Exposure Assessment - Marina 2 Foundations of Risk - Nautilus 5 Risk, Policy & Law - Marina 6 Risk & Development - Nautilus 1 1:05-1:25 PM Applied Risk Management - Nautilus 5 Decision Analysis & Risk - Nautilus 2 Emerging Nanoscale Materials - Marina 2 Engineering & Infrastructure - Marina 6 Microbial Risk Analysis - Nautilus 1

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Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting

Specialty Group Mixers Tuesday, 13 December - 6:00-7:30 PM Mixer 1 - DRSG, MRASG, EASG, ARMSG - Room 511 Mixer 2 - SDSG, DARSG, EISG, FRSG - Room 514 Mixer 3 - RCSG, OHSG, ERASG - Room 515 Mixer 4 - EBASG, ENMSG, RPLSG, RDSG - Room 518

Key to Specialty Group Designations ARM = Applied Risk Management DARSG = Decision Analysis and Risk DRSG = Dose-Response EASG = Exposure Assessment EBASG = Economics & Benefits Analysis EISG = Engineering and Infrastructure ENMSG = Emerging Nanoscale Materials ERASG - Ecological Risk Assessment

FRSG = Foundations of Risk MRASG = Microbial Risk Analysis OHSSG = Occupational Health & Safety RCSG = Risk Communication RDSG = Risk & Development RPLSG = Risk, Policy and Law SDSG = Security and Defense

Registration Desk Hours Sunday 11 December

4:00 PM - 6:30 PM

Monday 12 December

7:00 AM - 5:00 PM

Tuesday 13 December

8:00 AM - 5:00 PM

Wednesday 14 December

8:00 AM - 5:00 PM

Exhibitors ICF International 9300 Lee Highway Fairfax, VA 22031 703-934-3000 www.icf.com ICF (NASDAQ:ICFI) is a global consulting and technology services provider with more than 5,000 professionals focused on making big things possible for our clients. We are business analysts, policy specialists, technologists, researchers, digital strategists, social scientists and creatives. Since 1969, government and commercial clients have worked with ICF to overcome their toughest challenges on issues that matter profoundly to their success. Come engage with us at icf.com.

Society of Benefit-Cost Analysis c/o Evans School of Public Policy and Governance University of Washington Box 353055, Parrington Hall, Room 303 Seattle, WA 98195-3055 206-616-4090 www.benefitcostanalysis.org The Society of Benefit-Cost Analysis is an international, multi-disciplinary association working to promote and improve the theory and practice of benefit-cost analysis. Our members work in government, academia, nonprofits, and the private sector and address a wide range of policy issues.

Springer 233 Spring Street New York, NY 10013 781-347-1835 www.springer.com Springer is proud to publish the journal: Environment Systems and Decisions and the new book series: Risk Systems and Decisions. In 2017, ESD in collaboration with the SRA DARSG will be presenting a Best Paper Award. Please stop by our table and pick up more information about these exciting new publications.

Exhibition - Grande Ballroom A Monday 12 December . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12:00 PM -3:30 PM

Poster Reception (Grande Ballroom) . . . . . . . 6:00 PM - 8:00 PM

Tuesday 13 December . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9:30 AM - 4:00 PM Wednesday 14 December . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9:30 AM - 3:30 PM

UC Center for Risk Science (formerly TERA) 160 Panzeca Way Cincinnati, OH 45267-0056 513-558-1034; Fax: 513-558-7199 med.uc.edu/eh/centers/tera The University of Cincinnati’s Center for Risk Science (formerly TERA) supports the protection of public health by developing, reviewing and communicating risk assessment values and analyses; improving risk methods through research; and, educating risk assessors, managers, and the public on risk assessment issues.

US EPA\ORD\NCEA 26 West Martin Luther King Cincinnati, OH 45268 513-569-7697 www.epa.gov EPA’s National Center for Environmental Assessment (NCEA) is a leader in the science of human health and ecological risk assessment. NCEA addresses the needs of stakeholders by preparing technical reports and assessments that integrate and evaluate the most up-to-date research. These products serve as a major component of the scientific foundation supporting EPA’s regulations and policies.

Final Program

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Continuing Education Workshops Workshops are offered Sunday and Thursday, either Full Day, AM Half Day, or PM Half Day. Full descriptions of each workshop are provided below. Reduced workshop costs are available to full-time students who are registered for attendance at the SRA Annual Meeting. Workshop # Workshop Title

Day/Time/Location

WK1S

Monte Carlo Simulation and Probability Bounds Analysis in R with Hardly Any Data

Sunday, December 11th $300 8:30 AM-5:30 PM Marina 2

WK6S

Categorical Regression Modeling

Sunday, December 11th $300 8:30 AM-5:30 PM Marina 3

WK7S

Probabilistic Dose-Response Assessment: New Guidance from the World Health Organization

Sunday, December 11th $300 8:30 AM-5:30 PM Marina 4

WK8S

Cumulative Risk Assessment: Addressing Combined Environmental Stressors Impacts

Sunday, December 11th $350 8:30 AM-5:30 PM Nautilus 1

WK9S

Methods for Quantifying and Valuing Population Health Impacts

Sunday, December 11th $275 8:00 AM-12:00 PM Nautilus 2

WK10S

Eliciting Judgments from Sunday, December 11th $250 Experts and Non-experts to Inform 8:00 AM-12:00 PM Decision-making Nautilus 3

WK11S

Exposure-Response Array Training Sunday, December 11th $250 1:00 PM-5:00 PM Nautilus 2

WK12T

Monte Carlo Simulation and Probability Bounds Analysis in R with Hardly Any Data

Thursday, December 15th, 8:30 AM-5:30 PM Marina 2

Cost

$300

FULL DAY WORKSHOPS SUNDAY 11 December, 8:30 AM-5:30 PM WK1S: Monte Carlo Simulation And Probability Bounds Analysis in R with Hardly Any Data Location: Marina 2; Cost: $300 Instructor: Scott Ferson, Applied Biomathematics This revamped full-day workshop features hands-on examples worked in R on your own laptop, from raw data to final decision. The workshop introduces and compares Monte Carlo simulation and probability bounds analysis for developing probabilistic risk analyses when little or no empirical data are available. You can use your laptop to work the examples, or just follow along if you prefer. The examples illustrate the basic problems risk analysts face: not having much data to estimate inputs, not knowing the distribution shapes, not knowing their correlations, and not even being sure about the model form. Monte Carlo models will be parameterized using the method of matching moments and other common strategies. Probability bounds will be developed from both large and small data sets, from data with non-negligible measurement uncertainty, and from published summaries that lack data altogether. The workshop explains how to avoid common pitfalls in risk analyses, including the multiple instantiation problem, unjustified independence assumptions, repeated variable problem, and what to do when there’s little or no data. The numerical examples will be developed into fully probabilistic estimates useful for quantitative decisions and other risk-informed planning. Emphasis will be placed on the interpretation of results and on how defensible decisions can be made even when little information is available. The presentation style will be casual and interactive. Participants will receive handouts of the slides and a CD with software and data sets for the examples.

WK6S: Categorical Regression Modeling Location: Marina 3; Cost: $300 Instructors: J. Allen Davis, U.S. EPA; Jeff Gift, U.S. EPA; Jay Zhao; U.S. EPA The objective of this full-day course is to provide participants with interactive training on the use of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Categorical Regression software (CatReg) and its application to risk assessment. Categorical regression

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Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting

modeling involves fitting mathematical models to toxicity data that has been assigned ordinal severity categories (i.e., minimal, mild, or marked effects) and can be associated with up to two explanatory variables corresponding to exposure conditions, usually concentration and duration. CatReg calculates the probabilities of observing the different severity categories over the continuum of the explanatory variables describing exposure conditions. The categorization of observed responses allows the expression of dichotomous, continuous, and descriptive data in terms of response severity and supports the analysis of data from single studies or multiple studies. CatReg can also estimate the lower confidence limit on the dose (the equivalent of a BMDL) associated with a given severity probability and exposure duration. Additionally, the meta-analytical capability of CatReg allows for the filtering of data in order to determine statistically significant different responses between sexes, strains, and/or species. Recently, EPA has released a new graphic-user interface for CatReg that will greatly increase the efficiency with which users can perform categorical regression analyses; this version of the software will be the focus of this training workshop. Participants need to bring their own laptops, with CatReg installed, to the workshop. The latest version of the software program can be found at: www.epa.gov/ncea/catreg. Disclaimer: The views expressed in this abstract are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the U.S. EPA.

WK7S: Probabilistic Dose-Response Assessment: New Guidance from the World Health Organization Location: Marina 4; Cost: $300 Instructors: Weihsueh Chiu, Texas A&M University; Greg Paoli, Risk Sciences International WHO/IPCS recently published a guidance document on evaluating uncertainties in human health dose-response assessment. Rather than single values for the point of departure (POD) and for any adjustment/uncertainty factors, the WHO/IPCS approach uses uncertainty distributions that reflect the assumed or estimated uncertainties in each of those aspects. Additionally, it quantitatively defines the protection goals in terms of incidence (I) and magnitude (M) of the critical effect in the human population. By contrast, traditional approaches for developing dose-response toxicity values result in a single value (e.g., RfD, ADI) whose uncertainty is not known and for which the associated values for I and M are not quantified. By quantifying the overall uncertainties in the target human dose at explicitly specified values of I and M, the probabilistic approach developed by the WHO/IPCS expert group allows risk managers to better weigh the benefits from reduced human health effects associated with different risk management options against other considerations, including economic costs. Further, the probabilistic analyses can inform the value of information associated with different options for developing a higher tier assessment.

This hands-on training Workshop is aimed at both risk professionals interested in applying the latest approaches to dose-response assessment, as well as students and researchers interested in developing new methods for dose-response. The Workshop will include an overview of the WHO/IPCS approach, case study exercises developing probabilistic dose-response toxicity values using an Excel spreadsheet tool, and a discussion of broader applications of the approach, including economic benefit-cost analyses. A laptop with Microsoft Excel is required.

WK8S: Cumulative Risk Assessment: Addressing Combined Environmental Stressors Location: Nautilus 1; Cost: $350 Instructors: Linda K. Teuschler, LK Teuschler & Associates; Rick Hertzberg, Biomathematics Consulting; Margaret MacDonell, Argonne National Laboratory; Moiz Mumtaz, ATSDR; Jane Ellen Simmons, USEPA; Amanda M. Evans, Association of Schools of Public Health Research Fellow; Michael Wright, USEPA; Glenn E. Rice, USEPA Cumulative risk assessment (CRA) addresses the impacts of multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors on real world individuals and communities, resulting in complex exposures for individuals and populations with a variety of vulnerabilities, in applications that range from environmental justice and community sustainability to individual health promotion and protection. Nonchemical stressors include biological and physical agents (e.g., microbes and noise) as well as socioeconomic stressors and psychosocial conditions (e.g., associated with natural disasters). Public concerns that can initiate CRAs include (1) elevated environmental measurements or biomonitoring data; (2) multiple sources of pollutants or stressors; and (3) changes in disease rates or patterns (e.g., leukemia cluster) or ecological effects (e.g., loss of wildlife diversity). This workshop focuses on human health and begins with an overview of three CRA elements: analysis, characterization, and quantification (as feasible) of the combined risks from multiple stressors. Teaching methods include lectures and hands-on exercises. Presentations highlight basic concepts, methods, and resources for conducting a population-based CRA. A central theme is integrating exposure and dose-response information with population characteristics during planning and scoping based on initiating factors. Vulnerability factors are addressed, e.g., diet/nutritional status, behaviors, genetic traits, socioeconomic status, sensitivities, and psychosocial stress. Methods for estimating human health risks are discussed and applied, including epidemiologic approaches and assessing the joint toxicity of chemical mixtures. In the exercises, participants develop chemical, biological and physical stressor groups using exposure and toxicity factors, link them with population vulnerability factors and conduct a risk characterization. Participants are asked to bring a calculator.

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MORNING WORKSHOPS SUNDAY 11 December, 8:00 AM-12:00 PM WK9S: Methods for Quantifying and Valuing Population Health Impacts Location: Nautilus 2; Cost: $275 Instructors: Kevin Brand, University of Ottawa; Sandra Hoffman, USDA The workshop reviews standard practices and emerging issues related to the quantification of a population’s health state. Particular attention is paid to the array of metrics available for this purpose, their use in quantifying population health impacts, and how these impact projections can be integrated into economic valuations. Risk assessment typically couples exposure information with an exposure-response relationship to estimate changes in incidence rates (e.g., a mortality rate). Expressed in this fashion (along an incident rate scale) these impact measures fall short. They do not capture the burden of disease, are not readily interpretable, complicate the comparison of disease outcomes, and are not suited to a single number summary. This workshop focuses on the methods required to get readily interpretable, comparable, bottom-line, summaries of health impact. A dizzying array of metrics can be used to quantify health impacts. Consider for example ``avoidable deaths,’’ PEYLLs, life-expectancy, lifetime risk, HALEs, QALYs, DALEs, DALYs and `attributable-fractions’ to name just a few. In this workshop we survey and bring order to these variants, classifying the metrics into a couple of categories. A finer grained classification is provided based on how the metric is calculated; for example does it adjust for the size and age structure of the population under study. The key choices and their influence upon projected outcomes will be outlined. Finally, a survey of the key steps and considerations that are required to map the health impacts, expressed in units such as change in life-expectancy, into healtheconomic evaluations will be offered.

WK10S: Eliciting Judgments from Experts and Non-experts to Inform Decision-making Location: Nautilus 3; Cost: $250 Instructors: Aylin Sertkaya, Eastern Research Group, Inc. (ERG); Cristina McLaughlin, FDA; Frank Hearl, NIOSH; Christy Parson, U.S. EPA; Elizabeth L. Durmowicz, U.S. FDA Decision makers must frequently rely on data or information that is incomplete or inadequate in one way or another. Judgment, often from experts and occasionally from non-experts, then plays a critical role in the interpretation and characterization of those data as well as in the completion of information gaps. But how experts or non-experts are selected and their judgments elicited matters – they can also strongly influence the

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Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting

opinions obtained and the analysis on which they rely. Several approaches to eliciting judgments have evolved. The workshop will cover topics ranging from recruitment, elicitation protocol design, and different elicitation techniques (e.g., individual elicitations, Delphi method, nominal group technique, etc.) to aggregation methods for combining opinions of multiple individuals. The role of judgment elicitation and its limitations, problems, and risks in policy analysis will also be addressed. The workshop will include presentation of two case studies that will include a discussion of the selection process; elicitation protocol development, elicitation technique utilized, and the various issues that arose before, during, and after the elicitation process and the manner in which they were resolved. The class will also include two hands-on exercises where participants will 1) learn about calibration of experts using a mobile application and 2) apply the Delphi and nominal group techniques to examine risk management issues associated with electronic cigarettes.

AFTERNOON WORKSHOP SUNDAY 11 December, 1:00-5:00 PM WK11S: Exposure-Response Array Training Location: Nautilus 2; Cost: $250 Instructors: George Woodall, US Environmental Protection Agency; Ingrid Druwe, US Environmental Protection Agency The use of exposure-response arrays in risk assessment has increased and created a need for guidance and training to orient risk assessors and other individuals on the uses and applications of exposure-response arrays, and recommendations for producing informative arrays suitable for publication. This training course (including 3 PowerPoint presentation modules, practice exercises, and tutorials) is intended to fill this need by presenting the basic principles of exposure-response arrays and providing guidance on using some of the tools available at present. It is not intended to present strict guidelines, but rather provide guidance and best practices to those wishing to learn more about this up-and-coming risk assessment tool. Current projects will also be discussed which are designed to encourage risk assessors and other interested parties to explore innovative approaches in presenting exposure-response data, develop and improve upon the tools to create exposure-response arrays, and share these innovations with the risk assessment community in an open-source environment.

FULL DAY WORKSHOP THURSDAY 15 December, 8:30 AM-5:30 PM WK12T: Monte Carlo Simulation and Probability Bounds Analysis in R with Hardly Any Data Location: Marina 2; Cost: $300 Instructor: Scott Ferson, Applied Biomathematics This revamped full-day workshop features hands-on examples worked in R on your own laptop, from raw data to final decision. The workshop introduces and compares Monte Carlo simulation and probability bounds analysis for developing probabilistic risk analyses when little or no empirical data are available. You can use your laptop to work the examples, or just follow along if you prefer. The examples illustrate the basic problems risk analysts face: not having much data to estimate inputs, not knowing the distribution shapes, not knowing their correlations, and not even being sure about the model form. Monte Carlo models will be parameterized using the method of matching moments and other common strategies. Probability bounds will be developed from both large and small data sets, from data with non-negligible measurement uncertainty, and from published summaries that lack data altogether. The workshop explains how to avoid common pitfalls in risk analyses, including the multiple instantiation problem, unjustified independence assumptions, repeated variable problem, and what to do when there’s little or no data. The numerical examples will be developed into fully probabilistic estimates useful for quantitative decisions and other risk-informed planning. Emphasis will be placed on the interpretation of results and on how defensible decisions can be made even when little information is available. The presentation style will be casual and interactive. Participants will receive handouts of the slides and a CD with software and data sets for the examples.

In a deadly game of solitaire, you must rank mortality risks from small to large. Do toys or terrorists kill more people? Murder or suicide? Radon or nephritis? WARNING: Play leads to real knowledge about comparative mortality risk.

Mortality: the Game is an experimental game based on the psychology of gamification and risk communication. It was created by Dan Bacon, a public policy game designer from Harvard, and Arden Rowell, a law professor who works on risk regulation. All research for the game is free and publicly available, including tips for other public policy game designers. Go to SSRN to download “Gamifying Risk Communication: The Game of Mortality.” All comments and questions welcome at [email protected] Final Program

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Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) Membership Drive Special Offer 2016 Annual Meeting, San Diego, CA December 11-15, 2016 The SRA is an exciting international society for professionals who deal with risk analysis for a diverse set of multidisciplinary areas. SRA members enjoy collaborations with the risk analysis community, receive copies of the journal Risk Analysis, pariticpate in scientific specialty groups, receive up to date communications, host or give SRA webinars and attend SRA supported meetings and workshops. SRA is looking to increase its membership and offer these benefits to a wider audience from academia, government, industry, consulting and non-government organizations. SRA is promoting new membership signups at the Annual Meeting and is offering a free 4 port hub for use with USB ports to all new members (pre-registrations included), as shown below. Pick yours up at the SRA Membership Booth at the Annual Meeting

Sign up Today!

Speaker Ready Hours Sheraton San Diego - Marina 1 Sunday . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3:00 PM - 8:00 PM Monday . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7:00 AM – 5:00 PM Tuesday . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7:00 AM - 5:00 PM Wednesday . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7:00 AM - Noon

Mark your calendar! Dates for the 2017 - 2019 Annual Meetings: 2017 10-14 December Crystal Gateway Marriott Arlington, Virginia

2018 9-12 December Marriott New Orleans, Louisiana

2019 8-12 December Crystal Gateway Marriott Arlington, Virginia

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Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting

PLENARY SESSIONS

All Plenary Sessions are held in the Harbor Island Ballroom

Monday 12 December, Morning Plenary, 8:30 – 10:00 AM Resilience and Impact: Empowering Global Citizens Millions of volunteers are collecting and synthesizing data for science, to better understand our planet and help address shared risks. And scientists, technologists, and engineers are engaging as global citizens, pursuing innovations that focus on community needs. Together, citizen scientists and scientist citizens are empowering people around the world to make an impact, for good. Keynote Speakers:  Heather Fleming, Founder and CEO, Catapult Design  Darlene Cavalier, Founder, SciStarter and Science Cheerleader, Arizona State University Moderator: Weihsueh Chiu, Texas A&M University

Tuesday 13 December, Morning Plenary, 8:00 – 9:45 AM Collaborations and Explorations: From Earthly Challenges to Outer Space National programs are working with interested communities to develop approaches and share information toward solving challenges such as managing spent fuel from decades of commercial electricity generation, and evaluating new chemicals. And we continue the scientific and social revolution ignited by Galileo, the Hubble, and more as we further explore our home, our universe, and beyond.

Keynote Speakers:  Andy Griffith, Deputy Assistant Secretary, Spent Fuel and Waste Disposition, U.S. Department of Energy  Gerlinde Knetsch, Chemical Safety Division, German Environment Agency (Umweltbundesamt)  Mike Massimino, Hubble Astronaut, Extreme Engineering, Columbia University Moderator: Frank Hearl, National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health

Wednesday 14 December, Afternoon Plenary, 12:40 – 1:25 PM Moral Deficiencies in the Arithmetic of Compassion In many human and environmental crises, individuals and their governments exhibit a morally troubling response to the risk of mass casualties that can be described by the phrase “the more who die, the less we care.” Three psychological mechanisms underlie this problematic “arithmetic of compassion” — psychic numbing, pseudoinefficacy, and the prominence effect. Ways to counteract these mechanisms are explored, as a roadmap for future research and its application to crisis management.

Keynote Speaker:  Paul Slovic, Founder and President, Decision Research, University of Oregon Moderator: Margaret MacDonell, Argonne National Laboratory

Final Program

11

Monday 7:00 AM-8:00 AM

New Member, Student/Young Professionals Breakfast

8:30 AM-10:00 AM

Morning Plenary Session, Resilience and Impact: Empowering Global Citizens, Harbor Island Ballroom Keynote Speakers: Heather Fleming, Darlene Cavalier

10:00 AM-10:30 AM Coffee Break

1:30 PM3:00 PM

Noon1:30 PM

10:30 AMNoon

Marina 2 M2-A Power System Risk and Resilience

3:30 PM5:10 PM

M2-B This is Roquette Science: Microbiological Produce Safety from Satellite Dish to the Dinner Table

Marina 4 M2-C Behavioral Issues in Risk Analytic Modeling for Security and Defense

Marina 6 M2-D Roundtable: PostElection Prospects and Challenges for Risk Policy

Spinnaker M2-E Symposium: Foundational Issues in Risk Analysis I

Pick up your box lunch near the Registration desk and attend the specialty group meeting(s) of your choice. See page 4 for details. 12:15 PM-12:35 PM - Dose-Response, Economics & Benefits, Occupational Health & Safety, Risk Communication, and Security & Defense Specialty Groups 12:40 PM-1:00 PM - Ecological Risk Assessment, Exposure Assessment, Risk Policy & Law, and Risk & Development Specialty Groups 1:05 PM-1:25 PM - Decision Analysis and Risk, Emerging Nanoscale Materials, Engineering & Infrastructure, and Microbial Risk Analysis Specialty Groups M3-A Symposium: Understanding Infrastructure Network Risks at National and Global Scales

3:00 PM-3:30 PM

M3-B Brave New World: Evolution & Revolution in Salmonella Risk Assessments

M3-C Presidental Roundtable: Cyber Risk Analysis

M3-D Symposium: Climate Change & Economic Analysis

M3-E Risk, Consequences, and Resilience of Cyber Infrastructure

M4-C Game Theory and Decision Analysis for Homeland Security and Defense

M4-D Symposium: The Global Burden of Food Borne Risk: Results and Lessons

M4-E Symposium: One Size Fits All? Challenges of Risk Governance

Coffee Break

M4-A Electric Power Systems Risk, Reliability and Interdependencies

6:00 PM-8:00 PM

12

Marina 3

M4-B Integrated Risk Assessment and Emerging Lines of Evidence to Address Uncertainty

Poster Reception, Grande Ballroom

Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting

Monday 7:00 AM-8:00 AM

New Member, Student/Young Professionals Breakfast

8:30 AM-10:00 AM

Morning Plenary Session, Resilience and Impact: Empowering Global Citizens, Harbor Island Ballroom Keynote Speakers: Heather Fleming, Darlene Cavalier

10:00 AM-10:30 AM Coffee Break

M2-G Low Dose Non-Monotonic Response, Bridging the Gap

Nautilus 3 M2-H Governing Interconnectedness of Multiple Risks

Nautilus 4 M2-I Symposium: The NFL As A Workplace: Uncertainties And Opportunities In Assessing And Managing The Health And Safety Risks Of Playing Professional Football

Nautilus 5 M2-J Poster Platform: Revolutions and Evolutions in Resilience

Noon1:30 PM

M2-F Communicating Health Risks: Attitudes, Perceptions and Strategic Messaging

Nautilus 2

Pick up your box lunch near the Registration desk and attend the specialty group meeting(s) of your choice. See page 4 for details. 12:15 PM-12:35 PM - Dose-Response, Economics & Benefits, Occupational Health & Safety, Risk Communication, and Security & Defense Specialty Groups 12:40 PM-1:00 PM - Ecological Risk Assessment, Exposure Assessment, Risk Policy & Law, and Risk & Development Specialty Groups 1:05 PM-1:25 PM - Decision Analysis and Risk, Emerging Nanoscale Materials, Engineering & Infrastructure, and Microbial Risk Analysis Specialty Groups

1:30 PM3:00 PM

10:30 AMNoon

Nautilus 1

M3-F Symposium: Can Principles of Risk Analysis Assist in the Development of Recommendations for Nutrient Intakes that Reduce the Risks of Chronic Diseases?

3:30 PM5:10 PM

3:00 PM-3:30 PM

M3-H Roundtable: Opportunities and Obstacles to More and Better Use of Risk Perspectives in Development Settings

M3-I Contaminants, Food Security, and GM Food Risks

M3-J Poster Platform: Disaster Communication: Terrorism, Flooding and Epidemics

M4-H Resilience vs RiskBased Regulatory Approaches

M4-I Symposium: Integrating Cumulative Risk Assessment into Occupational Safety and Health

M4-J Symposium: Relationships between Climate Experiences, Risk Perceptions, and Beliefs around the World

Coffee Break

M4-F Symposium: Alternatives Analysis for Safer Consumer Products: Exploring Decision Analytic Approaches to Reducing Risks in California

6:00 PM-8:00 PM

M3-G Exposure Assessment Methods & Models

M4-G Exposure and Risks to Water Contaminants

Poster Reception, Grande Ballroom

Final Program

13

Tuesday 8:00 AM – 9:45 AM

Morning Plenary Session, Collaborations and Explorations: From Earthly Challenges to Outer Space, Harbor Island Ballroom Keynote Speakers: Andrew Griffith, Gerlinde Knetsch, Mike Massimino

9:45 AM-10:30 AM

Coffee Break

10:30 AMNoon

Marina 2 T2-A Developing Methods for Understanding Infrastructure Risk at Multiple Scales

Noon-1:30 PM 1:30 PM3:00 PM 3:30 PM5:10 PM

14

T2-C Recent Topics in Homeland Security and Counter-terrorism

Marina 6 T2-D Roundtable: States as Risk Policy Innovators

Spinnaker T2-E Roundtable: The Risk Analysis Field/Science

T3-B Public Perception of Risk and Stakeholder Input

T3-C Symposium: Hazard Classification and Risk Assessment Frameworks for Nanomaterials

T3-D Symposium: Environment, Health Risk and Cost-Benefit Analysis

T3-E Symposium: Foundational Issues in Risk Analysis II

T4-C Understanding Nanomaterial Health Risks

T4-D Revolutions in Benefits Analysis

T4-E Applying Risk Management to Hazards and Disasters

Coffee Break

T4-A Flood Risk Modeling and Analysis

6:00 PM-7:30 PM

T2-B Microbial Risks in the Environment: Are We In Hot Water?

Marina 4

SRA Awards Luncheon and Business Meeting, Harbor Island Ballroom Includes all SRA Awards, and the 5 Best Poster Award Winners from Monday’s Poster Reception. (Included in Registration Fee)

T3-A Energy Systems and Risk

3:00 PM-3:30 PM

Marina 3

T4-B Would you like a side of Norovirus with that sandwich? Understanding Norovirus Transmission and Risk to Improve Risk Management in Retail Settings

Specialty Group Mixers

Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting

Tuesday 8:00 AM – 9:45 AM

Morning Plenary Session, Collaborations and Explorations: From Earthly Challenges to Outer Space, Harbor Island Ballroom Keynote Speakers: Andrew Griffith, Gerlinde Knetsch, Mike Massimino

9:45 AM-10:30 AM

Coffee Break

10:30 AMNoon

Nautilus 1 T2-F Decision Tools for Managing Environmental Risks and Disasters

1:30 PM3:00 PM

Noon-1:30 PM

3:30 PM5:10 PM

T2-G Symposium: To Vape or Not to Vape: Vaping and New Health Risks

Nautilus 4 T2-I Symposium: Toward a Common Language of Risk in Occupational Health and Safety, Part I

Nautilus 5 T2-J Predicting Climate Change Support and Action

T3-G Dose-Response Modeling for Human Health Risk Assessment (I)

T3-H Where are Science and Risk Analysis Taking us on Gene Drives

T3-I Symposium: Toward a Common Language of Risk in Occupational Health and Safety, Part II

T3-J All About Energy

T4-H Policy and Risk Goverance Landscape Around Gene Drives

T4-I Symposium: European Perceptions of Climate Change

T4-J Symposium: US and UK Perceptions on Risk, Resilience, Fairness and Disproportionality in the Case of Fracking

Coffee Break

T4-F Risk and Resilience in Infrastructure Networks

6:00 PM-7:30 PM

Nautilus 3

SRA Awards Luncheon and Business Meeting, Harbor Island Ballroom Includes all SRA Awards, and the 5 Best Poster Award Winners from Monday’s Poster Reception. (Included in Registration Fee)

T3-F Symposium: Coastal Flood Risk and Resilience: Exploring the Effects of Sea Level Rise and Approaches to Mitigation for Coastal Communities

3:00 PM-3:30 PM

Nautilus 2

T4-G Consumer Exposure and Tools

Specialty Group Mixers

Final Program

15

Wednesday

8:30 AM10:00 AM

Marina 2 W1-A Critical Infrasturcture Risk Management

Marina 3 W1-B What You Dont’ Know Can Kill You: Emerging Disease Risk and Resilience

Marina 4

Marina 6

Spinnaker

W1-C Deterrence Analysis in Homeland Security and Defense

W1-D The Economics of Health, Drugs, and Difficult Bugs

W1-E Symposium: Transparency and Uncertainty Analysis: Benefits and Pitfalls

W2-C Current and Future Global Catastrophic Risks

W2-D Symposium: Burdens From Risk: Valuing Outcomes for Workers and the Public

W2-E Symposium: Foundational Issues in Risk Analysis III

10:30 AMNoon

10:00 AM-10:30 AM Coffee Break W2-A Repeated Hazards and their Influence on the Evolution of Regional Vulnerability

W2-B Hot Topics and Emerging Risks in Ecological Risk Assessment

1:30 PM3:00 PM

12:40 PM – 1:25 PM Afternoon Plenary, Moral Deficiencies in the Arithmetic of Compassion, Harbor Island Ballroom Keynote Speaker: Paul Slovic W3-A Risk and Uncertainty Analysis: Applications in Hurricane Modeling and Cyber Security

3:30 PM – 5:00 PM

3:00 PM-3:30 PM

16

W3-C Roundtable: Coming of Age of Social Sciences in Risk Research and Future Challenges

W3-D Symposium: Looking Back at the Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point (HACCP) Revolution

W3-E Symposium: Foundational Issues in Risk Analysis IV

W4-C Recent Topics in Cyber Security

W4-D Public Sector and Transportation Risks

W4-E Managing Risks in Businesses and other Institutions

Coffee Break

W4-A Infrasturcture Systems Resiliense Modeling

5:00 PM-5:30 PM

W3-B Symposium: Decision Making in Food Safety: Perspectives on Decision Analysis Approches

W4-B Symposium: RiskBased Approaches for the Safety of Food and Dietary Supplements

T-Shirt Giveaway - Registration Area Stay to receive a free T-Shirt!

Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting

Wednesday

8:30 AM10:00 AM

Nautilus 1 W1-F Storming the Risk and Decision Analysis Bastille with Information Infantry

Nautilus 2 W1-G Dose Response Modeling for Human Health Risk Assessment (III)

Nautilus 3

Nautilus 4

Nautilus 5

W1-H Vaccines and Risk: A Global Perspective on Lessons Learned

W1-I Symposium: Risk in the New ISO Regime

W1-J From Seismicity to Pharmaceuticals: The Role of Trust

W2-H New Molecular Data Streams as Drivers of Next Gen Risk Assessments

W2-I Maps, Graphs, and Tweets: Geospatial Elements of Risk Communication

W2-I Maps, Graphs, and Tweets: Geospatial Elements of Risk Communication

10:30 AMNoon

10:00 AM-10:30 AM Coffee Break W2-F Symposium: Advances in the use of Mechanistic Data in Evaluating Carcinogenic Risk

W2-G Applied Exposure Assessment

1:30 PM3:00 PM

12:40 PM – 1:25 PM Afternoon Plenary, Moral Deficiencies in the Arithmetic of Compassion, Harbor Island Ballroom Keynote Speaker: Paul Slovic W3-F Symposium: Making Air Pollutant Risk Estimates Policy Relevant...

3:30 PM – 5:00 PM

3:00 PM-3:30 PM

W3-H Roundtable: Writing a Key Document: Principles and Guidelines for Applied Risk Management

W3-I Symposium: Incorporating, Mapping, and Communicating Uncertainty in Geospatial Risk Analysis to Support Informed Decisions

W3-J Symposium: Toward Resilient Government

W4-H Risk and Resilience in Development

W4-I Public Engagement and Participatory Approaches to Research

W4-J Symposium: Vaccines and Risk: A global Perspective on Lessons Learned 2

Coffee Break

W4-F Health Risk Asessment and Decision Analysis

5:00 PM-5:30 PM

W3-G Melding DoseResponse Relationships

W4-G Dose-Response Modeling for Human Health Risk Assessment (II)

T-Shirt Giveaway - Registration Area Stay to receive a free T-Shirt!

Final Program

17

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Monday

Technical Program

Presenter’s name is asterisked (*) if other than first author. 10:30 AM – 12:10 PM

10:30 AM – 12:00 PM

10:30 AM – 12:10 PM

10:30 AM – 12:00 PM

10:30 AM – 12:00 PM

Marina 2

Marina 3

Marina 4

Marina 6

Spinnaker

M2-A Power System Risk and Resilience

M2-B This is Roquette Science: Microbiological Produce Safety from Satellite Dish to the Dinner Table

M2-C Behavioral Issues in Risk Analytic Modeling for Security and Defense

M2-D Presidential Roundtable: Post-Election Prospects and Challenges for Risk Policy

M2-E Symposium: Foundational Issues in Risk Analysis I

Chair: Gilberto Montibeller

Chair: Lisa Robinson

Chair: Andrea Staid

10:30 AM

M2-A.1

Smart scenario generation for power system resilience Staid A, Watson J Sandia National Labs

Co-chairs: Wendy Fanaselle, Abani Pradhan

10:30 AM

11:30 AM

M2-B.3

M2-A.4 A system modeling approach to estimate

Electricity demand analysis in the residential sector Nateghi R, T Purdue University

the risk of E. coli O157:H7 contamination of pre-harvest leafy greens Mishra A, Pang H, Buchanan R, Schaffner D, Pradhan A University of Maryland, Rutgers 11:50 AM M2-A.5 University Proactive and reactive operations paradigms for improving power 11:30 AM M2-B.4 system resilience to extreme weather Forecasting produce contaminaevents tion potential using geospatial risk assessment in a multicriteria deciWatson J, Staid A, Silva-Monroy C, sion analytic framework Bynum M, Arguello B, Singh B, Pierre B Oryang D, Fanaselle W, Anyamba A, Sandia National Laboratories Cooley M, Burdett C, Van Doren J FDA, NASA-GSFC, USDA-ARS, Colorado State University

10:30 AM M2-E.1 M2-C.1 The results of the presidential elec- Requirements analysis and canonical

tion will have numerous important implications for risk policy. This roundtable brings together a group of Georgetown University experts from diverse policy areas and 10:50 AM M2-C.2 disciplines to discuss these implicaThe influence of causal attributions tions, including perspectives from on responses to near-miss terrorist economics, law, and public policy. events Participants: John R, Cui J, Nguyen K, Rosoff H • Charles Haas, Drexel University University of Southern California • James K. Hammitt, Harvard University 11:10 AM M2-C.3 • Sally Kane, University of New South Increasing the behavioral validity Wales of counter-terrorism risk analysis • Ragnar Lofstedt, Kings College models London Montibeller G, Jaspersen J • David Schkade, University of California Loughborough University - San Diego • Jonathan Wiener, Duke University 11:30 AM M2-C.4 • Richard Williams, George Mason The effect of information format on University police officer risk perceptions Ritchie R, Franco L Sponsored by: Loughborough University The Economics and Benefits Analysis 11:50 AM M2-C.5 Specialty Group and Society for BenefitCost Analysis Identifying, structuring, and comparing objectives of terrorists von Winterfeldt D, Siebert J, John R University of Southern California Decomposing the intention to act

M2-B.1 Dillon-Merrill R

Using a risk-based approach to evaluate intervention options for fresh 10:50 AM M2-A.2 produce in post-harvest processing Multi-hazard risk mitigation for elec- plants tric power systems using investment Oryang D, Chen Y, Mokhtari A, optimization Kowalcyk B, Van Doren J Jones K, Nozick L FDA, RTI International Sandia National Laboratories, Cornell 10:50 AM M2-B.2 University Evaluation of meteorological factors 11:10 AM M2-A.3 affecting pre-harvest contaminaThe effects of residential decisions tion risk of listeria species in a mixed on electric-power system reliability produce and dairy farm in areas that experience repeated Pang H, McEgan R, Micallef S, Pradhan hurricanes A Reilly A, Tonn G, Guikema S University of Maryland College Park University of Michigan

11:10 AM

10:30 AM

Chair: Terje Aven

formulation of a risk, safety, resilience, or security program Thorisson H, Lambert J University of Virginia

10:50 AM

M2-E.2

11:10 AM

M2-E.3

11:30 AM

M2-E.4

Conceptualizing security risk — a discussion of the value, threat, vulnerability definition of security risk Jore S University of Stavanger Reflections on historical events, unforeseen events and major accident risk Røed W University of Stavanger Automating causal judgments in risk analysis Cox T Cox Associates,University of Colorado

Final Program

19

Monday 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM

10:30 AM – 12:00 PM

10:30 AM – 12:10 PM

10:30 AM – 12:00 PM

Nautilus 1

Nautilus 2

Nautilus 3

Nautilus 4

Nautilus 5

M2-F Communicating Health Risks: Attitudes, Perceptions and Strategic Messaging

M2-G Low Dose Non-Monotonic Response, Bridging the Gap

M2-H Governing Interconnectedness of Multiple Risks

M2-I Presidential Symposium: The NFL as a Workplace: Uncertainties and Opportunities in Assessing and Managing the Health and Safety Risks of Playing Professional Football

M2-J Poster Platform: Revolutions and Evolutions in Resilience

Co-chairs: Michael Siegrist, Joseph Steinhardt

Co-chairs: Jacqueline Patterson, Kun Don (Sue) Yi

10:30 AM

Chair: Kirk Hartley

M2-G.1 10:30 AM

M2-H.1

M2-F.1 Concepts of ‘low dose’ and non-mono- Tools and methods for assessing

10:50 AM

10:50 AM M2-G.2 M2-F.2 The concept of hormesis and applica-

11:10 AM

11:10 AM M2-G.3 M2-F.3 Determination of critical effect for risk

11:30 AM

M2-F.4 11:30 AM

tonic dose response in toxicological research and regulatory science: harmonization of terminology Yi K Syngenta Crop Protection, LLC

Communicating radon risk: from tion in risk assessment workplace to community testing Dourson M Nicol A, Brokaw W TERA Center, University of Cincinnati Simon Fraser University Intuitive toxicology: lay people’s risk perception Siegrist M ETH Zurich, Switzerland

Low-income adult smoker attitudes and beliefs about cheaper smoking alternatives Steinhardt J Michigan State University

assessment Seed J Independent consultant (US EPA, retired)

M2-G.4

Strengths and weaknesses of low-dose observations and their relevance to human exposures and risk assessment Schoeny R Rita Schoeny LLC

Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting

Chair: Matthew Wood

M2-J.3

Quantitative evaluation of organized disaster response capacity through Chair: Adam Finkel functional exercises interconnected risks Heng Y 10:30 AM M2-I.1 Kato T, Koriyama K, Ito S, Aso H, University of Tokyo, University of St What are the key legal and ethical Taninobu M Andrews, UK issues motivating the attention to University of Kitakyushu NFL player health? M2-J.4 10:50 AM M2-H.2 Cohen I, Deubert C* An integrative framework for Interaction between extreme natural Harvard University assessing the resilience of complex events and technological changes Kishimoto A 10:50 AM M2-I.2 adaptive systems based on present The University of Tokyo What we do we know about the risks and future needs Gillespie-Marthaler L, Nelson K of playing in the NFL? 11:10 AM M2-H.3 Zafonte R Vanderbilt University Interconnectedness of multiple risks Harvard University M2-J.5 – the case of infectious diseases pandemic 11:10 AM M2-I.3 Multi-asset protection and resilience Matsuo M Risk-based governance options for assessment The University of Tokyo improving NFL player health and Petit F, Dickinson D, Phillips J Argonne National Laboratory safety 11:30 AM M2-H.4 Finkel A M2-J.6 Interconnected risks in space and University of Pennsylvania Law Building resilience by means of risk cyberspace School,University of Michigan School of analysis Nagai Y Public Health O’Neill P, P The University of Tokyo 11:30 AM M2-I.4 RiskLogik 11:50 AM M2-H.5 NIOSH activities in football epidemiM2-J.7 Governing interconnectedness of ology and safety Resilience metrics: gaps and multiple risks Howard J extensions Shiroyama H, Taniguchi T National Institute for Occupational Emanuel R The University of Tokyo Safety and Health University of Maryland, Johns Hopkins 11:50 AM M2-I.5 University Applied Physics Laboratory Political and legal issues surrounding federal, state, or private governance of NFL risks Lobel O University of San Diego

10:30 AM

Beyond “Under the Dome”: amplified risk perception increases knowledge and public engagement about air pollution in China Huang J, Yang Z State University of New York at Buffalo

20

10:30 AM – 12:10 PM

Monday M2-J.8

Resilience analysis to inform priority-setting Connelly E, Lambert J, Linkov I University of Virginia

M2-J.9

Climate change and infrastructure adaptation Butler, Verner, Petit, Wall Argonne National Laboratory

1:30 PM – 3:00 PM

1:30 PM – 3:00 PM

1:30 PM – 3:00 PM

1:30 PM – 3:00 PM

Marina 2

Marina 3

Marina 4

Marina 6

M3-A Symposium: Understanding Infrastructure Network Risks at National and Global Scales

M3-B Brave New World: Evolution & Revolution in Salmonella Risk Assessments

M3-C Presidential Roundtable: Cyber Risk Analysis

M3-D Symposium: Climate Change & Economic Analysis

Chair: Elisabeth Pate-Cornell

Chair: Elisabeth Gilmore

Co-chairs: Raghav Pant, Ed Oughton, Jonas Johansson

Co-chairs: Janell Kause, Elisabetta Lambertini

1:30 PM

M3-A.1

Understanding risks in global infrastructure systems M2-J.10 Thacker S, Hall J, Pant, R* Risk and resilience: summary of the University of Oxford 2016 NATO workshop Linkov I 1:50 PM M3-A.2 Societal consequences of multiUS Army Engineer R&D Center infrastructure disruptions: exploring Swedish national critical infrastructures Johansson J Lund University

2:10 PM

M3-A.3

In this panel we will discuss the status of risk analysis in the field of cyber 1:30 PM M3-B.1 risk assessment and management. Comparing health risk impacts The focus will be not only on methods of qualitative and semi-quanti- and techniques but also on the result tative microbiological criteria for of the analysis of real cases. Salmonella in poultry Participants: Lambertini E, Kowalcyk B, Thomas E, • Elisabeth Pate-Cornell Ruzante J • Marshall Kuypers RTI International • Matt Smith 1:50 PM M3-B.2 • Philip Keller The prevalence risk model as an Department of Management Science alternative to traditional QMRA: and Engineering, Stanford University application to estimating human foodborne Salmonella illness reduction after implementing new slaughter inspection LaBarre D, Ebel E, Williams M, Disney W, Catlin M Food Safety and Inspection Service

Cyber-attack risk and critical infrastructure: the economic impact of a cyber-attack on London’s electricity distribution network Oughton E, Skelton A, Kelly S, Leverett E, Thacker S, Pant R, Hall J 2:10 PM M3-B.3 University of Cambridge Quantitative microbial risk assess2:30 PM M3-A.4 ment for Salmonella on sliced Vulnerability of New Zealand trans- tomatoes portation networks to disruptions in Charles A, Wang H, Ryser E, Schaffner electricity supply. D Zorn C, Pant R, Thacker S, Shamseldin A Rutgers University, The State University of New Jersey University of Auckland, University of Oxford

2:30 PM

1:30 PM

M3-D.1

1:50 PM

M3-D.2

2:10 PM

M3-D.3

2:30 PM

M3-D.4

Benefit cost and distributional effects analysis for solar PV in the United States Azevedo I, Vaishnav P Carnegie Mellon University Using visualization science to diagnose and improve global change indicator understandability Kenney M, Gerst M, Wolfinger J University of Maryland Economic growth, armed conflict and the implications for climate change Gilmore E, Hegre H University of Maryland Markets, morals, and climate change Monast J, Murray B, Wiener J* Duke University Co-sponsored by: The Economics and Benefits Analysis Specialty Group and the Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis

M3-B.4

Farm to fork quantitative microbial risk assessment of Salmonella on tomatoes Todd-Searle J, Danyluk M, Schaffner D Rutgers University

Final Program

21

Monday 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM

1:30 PM – 3:00 PM

1:30 PM – 3:00 PM

Spinnaker

Nautilus 1

Nautilus 2

M3-E Risk, Consequences, and Resilience of Cyber Infrastructure

M3-F Symposium: Can Principles M3-G Exposure Assessment of Risk Analysis Assist in the Methods & Models Development of Recommendations Chair: Tony Cheesebrough Chair: Chris Greene for Nutrient Intakes that Reduce 1:30 PM M3-E.1 1:30 PM M3-G.1 the Risks of Chronic Diseases? Reduced-form modeling of maritime cyber threats Chen Z, Rose A, Wei D University of Southern California

1:30 PM – 3:00 PM

Nautilus 3

Nautilus 4

M3-H Presidential Roundtable: Opportunities and Obstacles to More and Better Use of Risk Perspectives in Development Settings

M3-I Contaminants, Food Security, and GM Food Risks Chair: Louis Rivers III

1:30 PM

M3-I.1

Genetic engineering, genetic modifiCo-chairs: Debra Kaden, Co-chairs: Rob Goble, Luis Cifuentes cation, or agricultural biotechnology: Joseph Rodricks 1:30 PM M3-H.1 does the term matter 1:30 PM M3-F.1 Opportunities and obstacles to more Zahry N, Besley J and better use of risk perspectives in Michigan State University Nutrition evidence: what you see is 1:50 PM M3-E.2 not necessarily what you get development settings 2:10 PM M3-I.2 Cost of cyber incidents Goble R Bier D 1:50 PM M3-G.2 Participatory ensemble modeling Livingston O, Shabat M, Cheesebrough Baylor College of Medicine Clark University Approaches for refining the assessto study the multiscale social and T M3-H.2 behavioral dynamics of food security 1:50 PM M3-F.2 ment of short-term infrequent 1:50 PM Department of Homeland Security Current realities and future options consumer exposures in a screening What does transformative risk in dryland West Africa 2:10 PM M3-E.3 for using chronic disease endpoints level risk assessment assessment practice look like for Rivers L, Ligmann-Zielinska A, Towards modeling time-varying to set Dietary Reference Intake (DRI) Qian H, Dudzina T, Zaleski R, Foreman Schmitt-Olabisi L, Du J, Marquartdevelopment? dependencies in cyber-physical infra- values J, Adenuga D, Rodriguez C Pyatt S Francis R structure systems ExxonMobil Biomedical Sciences, Inc. North Carolina State University MacFarlane A George Washington University Chatterjee S, Perkins C, Brigantic R, Health Canada 2:10 PM M3-G.3 2:10 PM M3-I.3 MacDonald D M3-H.3 2:10 PM M3-F.3 Are measured differences in pulmo- Risk and development perspectives Gut reactions to GMO foods: analyzing Pacific Northwest National Laboratory 2:10 PM the interplay of attitudes, trust, and from the Southern Hemisphere Nutrient risk assessment: context, nary function “different”? risk perceptions 2:30 PM M3-E.4 development and evolution Belzer R, Lewis R Cifuentes L Economic consequences of a Silicon Taylor C Good Intentions Paving Co., Exxon Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile Rose K, Su L, Wirz C, Brossard D, Valley earthquake Scheufele D, Xenos M Mobil Biomedical Sciences, Inc. National Institutes of Health Sue Wing I, Wei D*, Rose A, Wein A 2:30 PM M3-H.4 University of Wisconsin-Madison M3-G.4 Managing complexity in socio-tech2:30 PM M3-F.4 2:30 PM University of Southern California 2:30 PM M3-I.4 Modelling U-shaped exposure Improved accuracy for total dietary nical transitions exposure estimates: estimation of A mental models approach to response curves Schweizer V, Kurniawan J food analyte mean concentrations informing risk communication about Krewski D for exposure assessment using a University of Waterloo contaminants in the Arctic Ottawa University, Ontario, Canada Dirichlet process. Furgal C, Boyd A Pouillot R, Gamalo M, Spungen J, Abt Trent University, Washington State E, Van Doren J University Food and Drug Administration

22

Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting

Assessing exposure from consumer product use: methods that have been developed to address manufacturer, consumer and agency concerns Sheehan P, Kalmes R Exponent

1:30 PM – 3:00 PM

Monday 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM Nautilus 5 M3-J Poster Platform: Disaster Communication: Terrorism, Flooding and Epidemics Chair: Heather Rosoff

M3-J.3

Understanding individual’s voluntary flood insurance purchase from flood risk perspective Xian S, Shao W, Lin N, Kunreuther H, Goidel K Princeton University, Auburn University Montgomery, Wharton Business School, Texas A&M University

M3-J.4

Communicating about lone-actor terrorism: the challenges in practice Parker D, Pearce J, Lindekilde L, Rogers M King’s College London, University of Aarhus

M3-J.5

Communicating public guidance for firearms and weapons attacks: factors influencing intention to ‘run, hide, tell’ in the UK and Denmark Pearce J, Parker D, Lindekilde L, Rogers M King’s College London, Aarhus University

M3-J.6

Inverting the dominant crisis communication logic — a case study based on the Brussels terror attacks Marynissen H, Van Achte T, Pieters S Antwerp Management School

M3-J.7

Fear and loathing following a terrorist attack on a commercial passenger plane Betz M, John R University of Southern California

M3-J.8

Effects of psychological distance and cumulative sequences on near-miss appraisals Cui J, John R University of Southern California

M3-J.9

M3-J.10

A case study on the use of Twitter for crisis communication during Hurricane Sandy Wang B, Zhuang J University at Buffalo, The State University of New York

Psychological adaptation during stress inducing social events: the case of the 2014-2015 Ebola outbreak Gaspar R, Silva C, Collins E William James Center for Research, ISPA-Instituto Universitario

M3-J.11

Zika outbreak: a multilingual analysis of social media discourse surrounding the Zika virus and genetically engineered mosquitoes Wirz C, Chung J, Rose K, Brossard D, Scheufele D, Xenos M, Massarani L, Maynard A University of Wisconsin-Madison

M3-J.12

How framing, controllability, and aspiration influence communications and decision making about natural disaster early warning programs Rosoff H, John R, Guney S, Nguyen K, University of Southern California, Price School of Public Policy

Microbial Risk Analysis Editor-in-Chief

Prof. Omar A. Oyarzabal

University of Vermont, Berlin, Vermont, USA

Associate Editor

Dr. M. Nauta

Technical University of Denmark, Søborg, Denmark

Microbial Risk Analysis is a recently launched highly interdisciplinary journal that welcomes articles dealing with the study of risk analysis applied to microbial hazards. The journal touches on topics in microbiology, veterinary science, food science, public health and policy, agriculture, environmental science, law and science policy.

Benefits of submitting your papers to Microbial Risk Analysis: • Peer review: rigorous peer review on all published articles • Flexible publication: you can choose to publish open access • Rapid publication: quick reviewing and online publication shortly after acceptance For the full aims and scope, or to submit your paper, visit: journals.elsevier.com/microbial-risk-analysis

Supports Open Access Available online for free now: Special Issue Risk analysis of Campylobacter in broilers and broiler meat

Final Program

23

Monday 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM

3:30 PM – 5:10 PM

3:30 PM – 5:10 PM

3:30 PM – 5:10 PM

Marina 2

Marina 3

Marina 4

Marina 6

Spinnaker

M4-A Electric Power Systems Risk, Reliability and Interdependencies

M4-B Integrated Risk Assessment and Emerging Lines of Evidence to Address Uncertainty

M4-C Game Theory and Decision Analysis for Homeland Security and Defense

M4-D Symposium: The Global Burden of Food Borne Risk: Results and Lessons

M4-E Symposium: One Size Fits All? Challenges of Risk Governance

Chair: Randall Ryti

Co-chairs: Jun Zhuang, Vineet Madasseri Payyappalli

Chair: Sandra Hoffman

Chair: Pia-Johanna Schweizer

Chair: Stanley Levinson

3:30 PM

M4-A.1

Modeling electric power and natural gas systems interdependencies: application to climate change and natural hazards Kavicky J, Portante E, Petit F, Clifford M Argonne National Laboratory

3:50 PM

M4-A.2

4:10 PM

M4-A.3

Energy markets impact on the risk of cascading outages in power systems Li B, Sansavini G* Reliability and Risk Engineering Laboratory

Assessing the damage of large scale power outages to residential customers Baik S, Davis A, Morgan M Carnegie Mellon University

4:30 PM

M4-A.4

The economic and societal impact of baseload power generation on local communities Carless T, Fischbeck P Carnegie Mellon University

24

3:30 PM – 5:10 PM

3:30 PM

M4-B.1

The use of incident data in assessing risks from pesticides Rossmeisl C, Panger M U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

3:30 PM

3:30 PM M4-D.1 3:30 PM M4-E.1 M4-C.1 WHO global burden of foodborne Some foundational issues of impor-

Defensibility — a new concept in risk analysis Bier V, Gutfraind A, Lu Z University of Wisconsin-Madison, 3:50 PM M4-B.2 University of Illinois at Chicago Framework development for inteM4-C.2 grated risk assessment and 3:50 PM vulnerability assessment: Charleston Modeling the value of deterrence Harbor deepening case study John R Cains M, Henshel D, Fair P, Scott G, Univ of Southern California Landis W, Menzie C 4:10 PM M4-C.3 Indiana University, NOAA, University of Cost-benefit analysis of fire protecSouth Carolina, Western Washington tion resource allocation in the United University, Exponent States: models and a 1980-2011 case 4:10 PM M4-B.3 study Framework for environmental causal Madasseri Payyappalli V, Behrendt A, analysis that accounts for uncertainty Zhuang J in data quality University at Buffalo, SUNY Kashuba R, Morrison A, Palmquist K, 4:30 PM M4-C.4 Menzie C Analyzing different decision-making Exponent, Inc. methods for situations with deep 4:30 PM M4-B.4 uncertainty Are population ecology concepts Zhang M, MacKenzie C* routinely applied to ecological risk Iowa State University assessments? 4:50 PM M4-C.5 Ryti R On the role of customs in securing the Neptune and Company, Inc. containerized global supply chains 4:50 PM M4-B.5 Pourakbar M, Zuidwijk R Considering the impact of classifica- Rotterdam School of Management, tion uncertainty in weed risk models Erasmus University Powell M US Department of Agriculture

Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting

disease estimates and use of expert elicitation to develop global foodborne disease source attribution estimates Hoffmann S, Aspinall W, Cooke R, DeDevleesschauwer B, Bhavelaar A, Hald T USDA Economic Research Service

tance for risk governance Aven T University of Stavanger, Norway

3:50 PM

M4-E.2

4:30 PM

M4-E.4

Global governance on systemic risks as dynamic multilevel governance Klinke A 3:50 PM M4-D.3 Memorial University of Newfoundland Global perspectives on foodborne chemical exposures 4:10 PM M4-E.3 Lessons from Denmark for risk Gibb H, Devleesschauwer B, Bellinger governance of renewable energies D, Bolger P, Zang J, Carrington C, Cliff J, Zeilmaker M, Ezendam J, Wu F Ram B, Clausen N Gibb Epidemiology Consulting LLC University of Delaware, Danish Technical University

4:10 PM

M4-D.4

Foodborne illness source attribution: providing critical information for food regulatory authorities to target their efforts and measure their progress Goldman D US Department of Agriculture Food Safety and Inspection Service

4:30 PM

Systemic risks: challenges for risk governance Renn O Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS)

4:50 PM M4-E.5 M4-D.5 Inclusive risk governance: lessons

The role of the global burden of disease estimates in managing global health risks Forouzanfar M, GBD 2015 researchers and collaborators Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation - University of Washington

learnt and demand for further research Schweizer P Stuttgart University

Monday 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM

3:30 PM – 5:10 PM

3:30 PM – 5:10 PM

3:30 PM – 5:10 PM

3:30 PM – 5:10 PM

Nautilus 1

Nautilus 2

Nautilus 3

Nautilus 4

Nautilus 5

M4-F Symposium: Alternatives Analysis for Safer Consumer Products: Exploring Decision Analytic Approaches to Reducing Risks in California

M4-G Exposure and Risks to Water Contaminants

M4-H Resilience vs Risk-Based Regulatory Approaches

Chair: Amina Wilkins

Chair: Igor Linkov

M4-I Symposium: Integrating Cumulative Risk Assessment into Occupational Safety and Health

M4-J Symposium: Relationships between Climate Experiences, Risk Perceptions, and Beliefs around the World

3:30 PM

M4-G.1 3:30 PM

Addressing Colorado’s public health concerns on the potential health 3:30 PM M4-F.1 risks of hydraulic fracturing through Models of alternatives analysis: eval- surveillance and science McMullin T, Bamber A, Flores J, Vigil D, uating the evaluation VanDyke M Malloy T Colorado Department of Public Health University of California, Los Angeles and the Environment Chair: Christian Beaudrie

3:50 PM

M4-F.2

A toxicologist’s view of alternatives assessment: challenges and opportunities Lewandowski T Gradient

4:10 PM

M4-F.3

California’s safer consumer products regulations: a regulatory framework that includes nanomaterials Wong J California Department of Toxic Substances Control

4:30 PM

M4-F.4

High throughput screening tool for evaluating chemical toxicity risk based on chemical properties and human factors Wood M, Larkin S, Linkov I US Army Engineer Research & Development Center

M4-H.1

International risk governance council resource guide on resilience: metrics and approaches for quantification Linkov I, Fox-Lent C, Florin M US Army Engineer R&D Center

Chair: Scott Dotson

3:30 PM

M4-I.1

Connecting cumulative risk and total worker health Chosewood K National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, Centers for Disease 3:50 PM M4-H.2 Control and Prevention Implementing resilience in regulatory law: procedural provisions 3:50 PM M4-I.2 3:50 PM M4-G.2 Stevens Y Efforts to address the challenges of Coal ash risk assessments — a Arizona State University integrating occupational risk analysis demonstration of resilience and cumulative risk assessment 4:10 PM M4-H.3 Dotson G Bradley L Implementing resilience in regulatory Centers for Disease Control and Haley & Aldrich law: substantive provisions Prevention (CDC)/National Institute 4:10 PM M4-G.3 Marchant G for Occupational Safety and Health Quantification of emissions expo- Arizona State University (NIOSH) sure risk from hydraulic fracturing in the marcellus shale region of 4:30 PM M4-I.3 M4-H.4 4:10 PM Pennsylvania Integrating resilience into main- Drivers for occupationally-focused stream regulation: a thought cumulative risk assessments Banan Z, Gernand J experiment Lentz T Pennsylvania State University Malloy T National Institute for Occupational 4:30 PM M4-G.4 University of California, Los Angeles Safety and Health Evaluating the risk of spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus to 4:50 PM M4-I.4 M4-H.5 4:30 PM wild migratory birds via leachate Qualitative methods for early stage Integrating non-chemical and from municipal solid waste landfills regulation of synthetic biology psychosocial factors into occupaaccepting poultry carcass waste tional cumulative risk assessment Trump B Malladi S, Weaver J, Mlakar J, Clougherty J University of Michigan Spackman E, Pantin-Jackwood M University of Pittsburgh U.S. Department of Agriculture

4:50 PM

M4-G.5

Pharmaceuticals and hormones in groundwater of the United States Toccalino P, Belitz K U.S. Geological Survey

4:50 PM

Co-chairs: Marijn Poortvliet, Meredith Niles

3:30 PM

M4-J.1

3:50 PM

M4-J.2

4:10 PM

M4-J.3

4:30 PM

M4-J.4

M4-I.5 4:50 PM

M4-J.5

Research directions in cumulative risk assessment Rice G US EPA National Center for Environmental Assessment

A replication and extension of the socio-psychological model of climate change risk perceptions Brügger A, Tobias R, Monge F Cardiff University Farmer experiences and perceptions of climate change influence adaptive behaviors Niles M University of Vermont Experiences of extreme weather, belief bias and perceived climate change risks Pidgeon N, Sposato R, Capstick S, Demski C, Spence A Cardiff University, Alpen-Adria Universität, Austria, University of Nottingham Flood experience, community involvement and climate change risk perception in coastal and delta communities Poortvliet P, Ngo C, Feindt P Wageningen University Public support for solar radiation management depends on concern about climate change and nationality Visschers V, Shi J, Siegrist M, Arvai J* ETH Zurich, University of Michigan, ERB Institute, School of Natural Resources & Environment and Ross School of Business, Decision Research

Final Program

25

Monday 6:00 PM – 8:00 PM

Poster Reception Grande Ballroom

Applied Risk Management

P.7 Creation of REDESASTRE as a strategy for capacity building and P.1 Risk mapping of technological support for the implementation of disasters and its application in land the Sendai Framework in the Parana use planning: the state of art State - Brazil Alves E Pinheiro E, Stringari D* Engine Engenharia Ltda Disaster Research Center of Parana P.2 Inter-organizational collabo- State - Brazil ration during complex risk events: P.8 Screening for developmental communication task performance and reproductive toxicity hazards in and satisfaction in homogeneous and the workplace mixed stakeholder teams Sullivan K, Dodge D, Lewandowski T Beaudry M, Lemyre L, Blust-Volpato S, Gradient Corporation Boutette P, Pinsent C University of Ottawa P.9 Uncertainty analysis with the assessment processes in the P.3 Development of cloud-based screening hazard assessment food safety assessment system of human health under Japan’s from post-market surveillance with Chemical Substances Control Law Bayesian inference via Markov Chain Yamaguchi H, Matsumoto M, Kato H, Monte Carlo technique. Hirose A Chuang Y, Wu K National Institute of Health Sciences National Taiwan University P.10 SISDC Mobile: a support P.4 Enhancing operational risk tool for municipalities for disaster management for wintertime oil spills management. with smart response services Barros E, Borges M Goerlandt F, Tabri K, Aps R, Höglund A, University Centre for Disaster Studies Lensu M, Rytkönen J and Research on the State of Paraná Aalto University P.11 Comparison and validation of P.5 Estimation of human risks statistical methods for predicting the induced by chemical accidents failure probability of trees Murayama T, Toshida M Kabir E, Guikema S Tokyo Institute of Technology University of Michigan P.6 Association between air pollu- P.12 Can risk governance function tion exposure and acute myocardial without a risk council? infarction emergency room visits: the Bonneck S effects of comorbid chronic conditions Pan S, Huang C, Ho W, Chen B, Guo Y P.13 Thailand’s granary faces risks of drought due to climate change National Taiwan University Yi C Tohoku University

26

Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting

P.14 Estimation and management of risks of injury at institutions due to fuel burning appliances Sridharan S, Mangalam S*, Wiersma R, Ravindran K, Reid D, Larez J Technical Standards and Safety Authority P.15 Understanding cause and outcomes of electrical injuries at institutions from an epidemiological perspective Moody J Electrical Safety Authority P.16 A risk based framework to protecting the rights of residents of retirement homes in Ontario, Canada Bates A, Castellino A, Pham P*, Mangalam S Retirement Homes Regulatory Authority P.17 Pathways to learning in selecting voluntary risk management practices Scott R University of Washington P.18 Establishing and implementing enterprise risk management in government agencies Arimoto C, Howard P* ABSG Consulting Inc

P.20 Evaluation of a model which supports decision-making on information security risk treatment using statistical data Kawasaki (Aiba) R, Hiromatsu T Institute of Information Security

P.27 Putting on your thinking cap: completing a warm-up reasoning task produces critical but biased evaluations of scientific evidence Drummond C, Fischhoff B Carnegie Mellon University

P.21 Going further than physical and cyber connections: consideration of logical interdependencies Lewis L, Petit F, Berry M Argonne National Laboratory

P.28 Public perceptions of clean energy technologies Abdulla A, Vaishnav P UC San Diego, Carnegie Mellon University

P.29 Game-theoretic model for attack and defense of smart grids at P.22 Prioritizing chemical residue three levels testing in meat, poultry, and egg Shan X, Zhuang J, Rao N University of Houston - Clear Lake and products State University of New York at Buffalo, Ward L, LaBarre D, Duverna R, Muniz Oak Ridge National Laboratory Ortiz J, Kishore R, Kause J, Catlin M USDA FSIS Office of Public Health P.30 Adversarial hypothesis testing Science González-Ortega J, Ríos Insua D, Cano P.23 Key role of capacity building J and participation in promoting the Instituto de Ciencias Matemáticas and improvement of articulated risk Universidad Rey Juan Carlos and impact assessment system in P.31 Implementation of a decision Western Mexico support tool for sustainable remediaClausen J*, Gomez Quiroga G, tion in practice - lessons learned Carmona Holley J Norrman J, Söderqvist T, Volchko Y, ITESO University Rosén L, Franzén F P.24 IRGC resource guide on Chalmers University of Technology, Enveco Environmental Economics resilience Consultancy Florin M, Linkov I* IRGC, Switzerland and US Army P.32 Is sustainable remediation of Engineer R&D Center, Boston contaminated land more efficient? Decision Analysis & Risk

P.19 Enterprise risk management implementation after organizational crisis: opportunity to build a resilient structure in a multinational company Janickova M Paris Dauphine University P.26 Race/ethnicity and climate Anderson R, Norrman J, Rosén L, change polarization: evidence from a Volchko Y Chalmers University of Technology U.S. survey experiment Schuldt J, Pearson A Cornell University

Monday 6:00 PM – 8:00 PM

Poster Reception Grande Ballroom

P.33 Developing a predictive model to detect mishandling in the selfreported water discharge data Hatami P, Mitchell J, Nejadhashemi A, Gibbs C, Rivers L Michigan State University, North Carolina State University

P.40 Advances in risk assessment of farm product and biota intake in SADA version 6 Bolus K, Manning K, Stewart R, Dolislager F, Walker S Oak Ridge National Laboratory

Dose Response

Ecological Risk Assessment

P.58 Combining cost benefit analysis with multi criteria analysis for P.46 Impact of temperature and P.53 National-level evaluation of sustainability assessment of regional humidity on stroke among diabetes pesticide risks to endangered and water supply policies mellitus patients using statins threatened species Sjöstrand K, Rosén L, Kärrman E, Ho W, Chou Y, Tsan Y, Chan W, Lin M, Rossmeisl C, Peck C, Garber K Blom L, Lindkvist J, Ivarsson M, Lång Lin Y, Chen P U.S. Environmental Protection Agency L, Lindhe A P.41 Optimizing resources: an China Medical University P.54 Improving ecological risk SP Technical Research Institute P.34 VRAKA — a method for environment, health & safety risk P.48 A series of unfortunate events: assessment by embracing bench- of Sweden, Chalmers University environmental risk assessment of model of Technology, City of Gothenburg, perpetuation of the pervasive miscon- mark dose analysis potentially polluting shipwrecks Pierce A, Warshaw C, Posin L, Gothenburg Region, Enveco ception that rats receive a 3-5 times Mayfield D, Skall D Landquist H, Rosén L, Lindhe A, Hancock G Environmental Economics Consultancy, lower lung tissue dose than humans Gradient Hassellöv I General Electric Co. and Gnarus Geological Survey of Sweden at the same ozone concentration Chalmers University of Technology Advisors P.55 Extrapolation strategies for McCant D, Lange S, Haney J, Honeycutt M P.59 The long and winding road: ecological risk assessment: inhala- controlling CO emissions from interP.35 The consequences of climate P.42 Comparison of evaluation Texas Commission on Environmental 2 tion toxicology in cetaceans change-driven land-use shifts in New functions for setting priority of risk Quality national aviation Rosenstein A, Collier T England forests management Vaishnav P P.49 Review and assessment of Independent Consultant Borsuk M, Thompson J, Kittredge D, Maeda Y, Muramatsu G Carnegie Mellon University phosgene mammalian lethality data Lindsay M, Orwig D, Foster D Shizuoka University and the development of a human P.60 PM2.5 related welfare loss in Dartmouth College Economics and Benefits Analysis P.43 Siting high-level radioactive estimate Beijing, China: health and psychoP.56 An attacker-defender resource logical mood impacts P.36 Should we design for 100 year waste disposal facilities: 50 years of Sommerville D, Channel S US Army Edgewood Chemical allocation game with complementary Yin H, Xu L flood? failure Biological Center and Leidos or substituting effects Xian S, Small M, Lin N Luk S, Mumpower J* Beijing Normal University He M, Zhuang J Princeton University, Carnegie Mellon Texas A&M University P.50 Prediction of hepatotoxicity in P.61 Benefits of mercury controls University at Buffalo University P.44 Application of structured rats by statistical approaches for China and the neighboring counP.57 Combining quantitative micro- tries in East Asia P.38 Portfolio analysis for research decision making to radiological air Takeshita J, Oki H, Yoshinari K National Institute of Advanced bial risk assessment and disability Zhang W, Zhen G, Chen L, Wang H, Li prioritization: application to NOAA monitoring Industrial Science and Technology, adjusted life years to estimate micro- Y*, Ye X, Tong Y, Zhu Y, Wang X Fisheries Black P, Stockton T, Perona R, Ryti R University of Shizuoka bial risk reduction for cost-benefit East Tennessee State University Wood M, Foran C Neptune and Company, Inc. analysis in drinking water systems US Army Engineer Research & P.45 An exposure based Multi- P.51 The effects of air pollution Bergion V, Rosén R, Lindhe A P.62 Cost-benefit analysis of copper Development Center Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) and statin use on the risk of stroke Chalmers University of Technology recycling in remediation projects P.39 Visualization of Life Cycle approach for the risk prioritization of in diabetes mellitus patients after Volchko Y, Karlfeldt Fedje K, Norrman transient ischemic attack: a 5-year Assessment (LCA) output antibiotic products J, Rosén L population-based cohort follow-up Brondum M, Wood M, Linkov I Chabrelie A, Mitchell J, Norby B Chalmers University of Technology study United States Army Corps of Engineers Michigan State University Yin M, Wu T, Chou Y, Chu Y, Chan W, Tsan Y, Ho W, Chu C, Chen P China Medical University

Final Program

27

Monday Emerging Nanoscale Materials

P.69 Health impacts of transportation and the built environment: a P.63 Development of innovative quantitative risk assessment methodology for safety assessment Mansfield T, MacDonald Gibson J of industrial nanomaterials: report of research project in Japan (FY2011-2015) University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Gamo M, Honda K, Yamamoto K, Fukushima S, Takebayashi T P.70 Cooling energy analysis of National Institute of Advanced commercial buildings in the U.S. Industrial Science and Technology Lokhandwala M, Shevade P, Nateghi R (AIST), Japan Bioassay Research Purdue University Center, Keio University P.71 Visualizing uncertainty in P.64 Technology “Risk Radars”: an marine navigation in the Canadian example in the area of nanotechnology Arctic Jovanovic A, Quintero F, Klimek P, Pelot R, Etienne L, Stoddard M Markovic N Dalhousie University Steinbeis Advanced Risk Technologies, Stuttgart, Germany Exposure Assessment P.73 Comparison of risk-based concentrations derived for pesticides P.65 Risk assessment of ground- in drinking water with US EPA human water drawdown in subsidence health benchmarks sensitive areas Mattuck R Sundell J, Rosén L Gradient Chalmers University of Technology P.74 Prioritization of water P.66 Cuba, enfoque de seguridad contaminants using the USGS-EPA de procesos en instalaciones indus- water quality portal triales con peligro mayor. Enfoque de Greene C ingeniería y proyecto Minnesota Department of Health Prieto Recarey R, Cueto Alonso A Empresa Ingeniería y Proyectos del P.75 Review of potential risk Petróleo, CUPET from various exposure pathways to Marcellus shale flowback water P.67 Accidents risk assessment Abualfaraj N, Gurian P, Olson M on China petroleum and chemical Drexel University enterprises Engineering and Infrastructure

Zhao Y Peking University P.68 The environmental competitiveness of small modular reactors: a life cycle study Carless T, Griffin W, Fischbeck P Carnegie Mellon University

28

P.76 Mercury contamination in the Columbia River Basin: health risk assessment of tribal exposure through subsistence lifeways Arachy H Harvard University

Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting

P.77 The risk assessment of Carbofuran residue in vegetables and fruits in Taiwan from 2010 to 2015 Chao K, Wu K National Taiwan University

P.84 Improvements in biota modeling for EPA’s Preliminary Remediation Goal and Dose Compliance Concentration calculators: intake rate derivation, transfer factor compilation, and mass loading P.78 Exposure sources and predic- factor tors of urinary phthalate metabolites Manning K, Dolislager F, Bolus K, in Taiwanese children Walker S Chen C, Wang Y, Wang S, Huang P, University of Tennessee, Oak Ridge Chen M, Hsiung A National Laboratory, US EPA National Health Research Institutes P.85 Probabilistic health risk P.79 Estimations of health risk in assessment of 2-amino-3,4-dimefood, by national food sampling anal- thylimidazo [4,5-f] quinoline on fish ysis, to Taiwan consumption Chen Y, Wu J, Huang S, Wu K Msibi S, Chuang Y, Wu C, Wu K National Taiwan University and Public National Taiwan University Health P.86 Measuring, assessing and P.80 Assessing the health risks of communicating individual external Gossypol from animal derived food in doses in the evacuation zone in the Taiwanese population Fukushima Hsing H, Chuang Y, Wu K Naito W National Taiwan University National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology P.81 Modeling study on the areal variation of the sensitivity of photo- P.87 City noise: propagation and chemical ozone concentrations and health impact associated health impacts to VOC Piotrowski A, De Guidici P, Soledano B, emission reduction in Japan. Payre C, Cabanes P* Inoue K, Higashino H EDF National Institute of Advanced P.88 Using diffusive samplers to Industrial Science and Technology measure formaldehyde in residential P.82 Proposed methods for char- indoor air acterizing dermal exposure to BPA Singhal A, Renee K, Sheehan P for purposes of Proposition 65 Exponent, Inc. Lewis R, Singhal A, Gauthier A, Kalmes P.89 Presentation of new EPA R, Sheehan P online Vapor Intrusion Screening Exponent, Inc. Level (VISL) tool P.83 Probabilistic risk assessment Stewart D, Galloway L, Dolislager F, of Fipronil Residue in Tea in Taiwan Smith S, Frame A, Gaines L Lu E, Wu K The University of Tennessee, US National Taiwan University Environmental Protection Agency

P.90 Health risk assessment of maliec and fumaric acid in Taiwanese adult population via LC-MS/MS and Bayesian Statistic Markov chain Monte Carlo Simulation Wu C, Shih I, Chuang Y, Wu K National Taiwan University P.91 The risk assessment of dietary exposure to acrylamide for adults in Taiwan Yeh S, Wu C, Wu K National Taiwan University P.92 Risk assessment for non carcinogenic health effects for people living in a contaminated area by chemicals in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Toledo M, Nardocci A University of Sao Paulo P.93 Solving complex radioactive decay chains for future assessment and cleanup decisions Galloway L, Bolus K, Bellamy M, Dolislager F, Walker S University of Tennessee, Ingenium Inc, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Environmental Protection Agency Foundational Issues in Risk Analysis P.94 Evidence integration facilitated by Dragon Online Turley A, Burch D, Henning C ICF International P.95 Delimiting the study of risk: risk assessment guidelines and values-based judgments Kokotovich A University of Minnesota

Monday P.96 Reference framework for the application of Quantitative Risk Analysis for hydrocarbon pipelines, coupled with uncertainty treatment methods: uncertainty in scenario identification through event trees Ocampo Pantoja F, Villalba N, Muñoz F Universidad de los Andes P.98 Realizing disaster causation: critical realism as an underpinning philosophy for disaster risk analysis Huang T Department of Urban Planning, National Cheng Kung University P.99 Computing risks with confidence Sentz K, Ferson S Los Alamos National Laboratory Microbial Risk Analysis P.100 Data resources for the development of a quantitative microbial risk assessment for Norovirus in foodservice facilities Miranda R, Schaffner D Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey P.101 Quantification of the Effect of 17 -estradiol on Escherichia coli and Enterococcus faecalis Survival and Persistence in Water Mraz A, Weir M The Ohio State University P.102 Evaluation of Salmonella survival and growth in rehydrated dry pet food Qu Y, Lambertini E, Buchanan R, Pradhan A University of Maryland, College Park

P.103 Development of a risk model to predict Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis contamination in bulk tank milk Rani S, Lambertini E, Pradhan A University of Maryland

P.110 Cumulative risk assessment for occupational health: challenges and solutions Williams P, Maier A E Risk Sciences, LLP

P.119 “Weather Whiplash” — an analysis of alternating hydrologic events 1960 to 2014 and the associated representation of risk. Trumbo C, Peek L, Laituri M, Schumacher R, Mokry M Colorado State University

P.126 Exploring the acceptability of human induced earthquakes McComas K, Lu H* Cornell University

P.127 Effects of climate change on Malian farmers Potpourri/Other Wooten E, Rivers L Occupational Health and Safety P.112 Regulatory risk assessor P.120 Seeking for your own sake: North Carolina State University P.104 Psychosocial intervention to perspective on the historical drinking Chinese citizens’ motivation for inforP.128 Enhancing environmental risk strengthen community resilience to water contamination at Camp mation seeking about air pollution assessment with the protocol for Yang J, Huang J disasters Lejeune, NC community excellence in environUniversity at Buffalo De la Yncera N, Lopez E, Lorenzo A Haney J mental health Universidad Autónoma del Estado de Texas Commission on Environmental P.121 Bridging the gap: exploring Bartlett R Morelos Quality the role of situated distance cues California Department of Public Health in climate change visualization P.105 Asbestos risk assessment P.113 Associate professor P.129 Tornado risk perceptions in messaging modeling: what are the keys to Seo K response to warning polygons Schuldt J, Rickard L, Yang Z “Carolinas’ mystery”? Aoyama Gakuin University Huang S, Jon I, Lindell M* Cornell University, University of Maine, Korchevskiy A University of Washington and University at Buffalo (SUNY) P.114 Risk factors associated to Chemistry & Industrial Hygiene, Inc. ciberbullying in Chilean high school P.122 Risky discourses: framing as P.131 Differences in risk percepP.106 Health risk communication to students a function of accountability in climate tions about medical practices a non-technical workforce Gutiérrez V, Toledo M among general people and health change editorials Sexton K, Bhojani F Universidad Diego Portales professionals Holley J Shell Yuko A P.115 Risk factors of cyberbullying Cornell University Tokaigakuin University P.107 The risk assessment of radia- in 5th grade Chilean students P.123 Of sea lice and superfood: a tion exposure and stochastic effect Ahumada W, Gutiérrez V, Toledo M comparison of regional and national P.132 IPCC reports on climate from Japanese Seafood for Taiwanese Universidad Diego Portales news media coverage of aquaculture change and media : comparing media after Fukushima accident coverage of IPCC AR4 and AR5 Rickard L Chen K, Chuang Y, Wu C, Wu K Risk Communication Aoyagi M University of Maine National Taiwan University National Institute for Environmental P.117 Nuclear risk communication P.124 Communicating the unfa- Studies P.108 Safety culture and return to Khan K miliar risk of ocean acidification to work: does perception matter? Vienna University P.133 FrackMap: a tool to commumembers of the public Gosen D, Shelton L nicate about fracking and potential Spence E, Pidgeon N, Pearson P Grenoble Ecole de Management P.118 Risk perception on health environmental and public health Cardiff University and Understanding effects of EMF among high school impacts in the United States Risk Group P.109 Risk estimation on hydrogen students in Japan De Marcellis-Warin N, Backus A fueling station and surrounding area Ohkubo C P.125 The perceived risks and bene- Harvard Center for Risk Analysis, Tsunemi K, Kato E, Kawamoto A, Japan EMF Information Center fits of drones and their various uses Harvard T. Chan School of Public Kihara T, Saburi T Zwickle A, Hamm J, Farber H Health, Polytechnique Montreal and National Institute of Advanced Michigan State University and CIRANO Industrial Science and Technology University of Massachusetts School of Law

Final Program

29

Monday P.134 Communicating threat and efficacy through the media: an analysis of news broadcasts about the Zika virus Olson M, Sutton J, Vos S University of Kentucky

P.143 Media coverage of mercury contamination in the Arctic Fredrickson M, Boyd A, Furgal C Colorado School of Public Health, Washington State University, Trent University

P.135 Investgating risk communications at Fukushima-Daiichi NPP accident Tsuchida S Kansai University

P.144 Digital risk perception and communication unplugged: twenty years of data processing Wardman J University of Nottingham

P.136 Extreme weather and climate change: the role of media use and interpersonal discussion in the formation of risk perceptions about climate change Anderson A Colorado State University

P.145 Urban parks as the nexus for neighborhood vulnerability and resilience Winter P, Milburn L, Li W, Padgett P USFS, Pacific Southwest Research Station

P.137 The relationship between stigma and public acceptance of food products – an example of chewy starch in Taiwan Wu C, Huang S*, Wu H, Wu K National Taiwan University

P.146 Communicating visual risk: threat, efficacy, and emotion in SNS messages about Zika Vos S, Sutton J, Olson M University of Kentucky

P.148 The chronological change of consumer anxieties and concerns P.138 The role of risk attitudes in the related with radioactive contaminareception of risk information for risk tion of foods in Japan: applying the mitigation strategies in wildfire text mining approach Walpole H, Wilson R Yamaguchi H, Shintani K, Hamada N The Ohio State University National Institute of Health Sciences P.139 Public cues to relative credibility of disputing scientists. Johnson B Decision Research; University of Oregon

P.149 Trust shaped through knowledge and elaboration: considering the attitude strength properties of trust Song H Cornell University

P.140 Disaster preparedness and natural disasters in Canada: a mixed-method inquiry of Canadians’ experiences Yong A, Lemyre L, Pinsent C, Krewski D University of Ottawa

P.150 Global attitudes towards climate change: evidence from 15 countries Shao W, Xian S, Lin N, Lee T Auburn University Montgomery

P.142 Examining factors influencing risk perceptions of hydropower Mayeda A, Boyd A Washington State University

30

Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting

P.151 How GM issue has been told at Chinese newspapers? Comparative Analysis of national and local newspaper coverage of GM issue in China, 2000–2014 Zhang X The University of Tokyo

Risk, Policy and Law P.158 Application of the averted disability-adjusted life year metric for proactive decision-making in a regulatory environment Sridharan S, Mangalam S* Technical Standards & Safety Authority

P.164 Surveillance of a comparative set of homeland security risks Lundberg R Sam Houston State University

P.166 Water stability index for risk identification within transboundary river basins P.152 Implementing geographic Hamilton M, Speight H, Hunke J, Health outcomes and information systems to support Coast P.159 Voyadgis D, Veeravalli S, Becker S, congressional control of consumer Guard operational decision making Lyon S safety regulations Todd A, Howard P* US Army Corps of Engineers Larson D ABS Consulting Geospatial Research Laboratory Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State P.153 When are climate victim University P.167 The security risk manageportrayals persuasive? The interplay ment regulation regime applied in the of perspective taking and social-iden- P.160 Geographic Risk Evaluation Norwegian context and Assessment Tool (GREAT): model tity cues Jore S for transfusion transmitted infectious Lu H, Schuldt J University of Stavanger diseases Cornell University Chada K, Lane C, Huang Y, Zhang G, P.168 Military coalition’s orgaWalderhaug M, Toledo S, Yang H nizational challenges in complex Risk and Development U.S. Food and Drug Administration and emergencies Stene L, Olsen O P.155 Social vulnerability and Engility Corporation the occurrence of gastrointestinal P.161 Risk governance through the University of Stavanger diseases associated with precipitation cooperation of a risk evaluation techP.169 Modeling exposures in municseasons in São Paulo, Brazil. nology and the institutional system: ipal water contamination scenarios Roncancio Benitez D, Nardocci A attention to chemical stock in product using synthetic systems University of Sao Paulo, School of Kojima N, Tokai A, Machimura T, Xue Richter B, Wilson P, Hawkins B, Winkel Public Health M, Zhou L, Todoroki A, Ebisudani M D, Whittaker I, Gooding R, Bradley D, Cox J P.156 Structuring, implementation Osaka University Battelle Memorial Institute and management of a specialized basis in the wildlife oiled rescue in Security and Defense P.170 A case study in data access, the event of environmental acciexposure assessment, and extended P.162 Hazard assessment of four dents in estuarine complex area of selected flame retardant chemicals analyses: diesel exhaust exposure Paranaguá, Paraná State, Brazil and lung cancer of importance to national defense Stringari D, Pinheiro E, Schneider G, Crump K, Van Landingham C, Rak A, Barry J, Morgan A Zamarchi K McClellan R* Noblis and University of Dayton Disaster Research Center of Parana Private Consultants Research Institute (UDRI) State - Brazil P.163 Epistemic uncertainty in Works-In-Progress agent-based modeling Ferson S, Sentz K P.171 Aviation security: examining Applied Biomathematics, Los Alamos the effects of agent and screening National Laboratory procedure on perceptions of risk, safety, and fairness Nguyen K, John R University of Southern California

Monday P.173 Factors that influence public perspectives of energy development in canada: Results of a national survey on climate change and energy systems Joo J, Mayeda A*, Chakrabarti K, Wang T, Song X, Hmielowshi J, Boyd A Washington State University P.174 Futuristic risk assessment for coastal flooding in changing climate era: A case of Ernakulam, India Walia A Centre For Disaster Management, LBSNAA P.175 Disaster risk management in India and Iran: Conceptual framework for disable sensitive drm planning Walia A, Ardalan A*, Patrick V, Singh S CDM, LBSNAA, TUMS, HHI, Harvard, UNICEF P.176 Cognitive sophistication and learning about risk from experience Royal A Resources for the Future P.177 Opening the black boxes of sustainability management: How metrics frame decisions? Stoycheva S Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, Italy P.178 Comparing urban and rural vulnerability to heat-related mortality: A systematic review and meta-analysis Li Y, Odame E, Zheng S, Silver K East Tennessee State University P.179 Modeling growth models of media attention and public attention during disasters Li J University of Science and Technology of China

P.180 Analysis of the Corpus Christi refinery row public health assessment Lange S, Jones L, Haney J, McCant D, Schaefer H, Phillips T, Honeycutt M Texas Commission on Environmental Quality

P.186 Combined incremental lifetime cancer risk for nitrosamines: A comparison of combustible cigarette and e-cigarette emissions Fiebelkorn S, Meredith C British American Tobacco, Research and Development, Southampton, P.181 The open data for resilience Hampshire, United Kingdom initiative: Approaches for making risk analysis more transparent, inclusive, P.187 Accidents risk assessment and effective on China petroleum and chemical enterprises Soden R, Balog S, Deparday V Zhao Y World Bank Peking University P.182 Air quality and unconventional oil and natural gas development: A P.188 Reactions to terror: In the air systematic review of the literature and on the ground from a public health perspective Baucum M, Rosoff H, John R Naufal Z, Blake U* University of Southern California American Petroleum Institute P.189 Integrated microbial risk P.183 Guiding versus choosing: The assessment of infection by Giardia role of life cycle assessment in US and Cryptosporidium from drinking state level policymaking water delivered by eleven surface water systems in Sao Paulo State, Scott R, Cullen A Brazil University of Washington Razzolini M, Lauretto M, Sato M, P.184 Quantity neglect in judg- Nardocci A ments of the ecological impact of University of Sao Paulo and CETESB “green”consumer goods P.190 Making the case for watches, Kim B, Schuldt J warnings, and advisories: Results Cornell University from a case study analysis of NWS P.185 The role of systematic review forecasters and partners in risk assessment — the missing Eosco G link between the objectivity and trans- Eastern Research Group parency of scientific evidence and confidence of regulatory decisions. P.191 Background radiation dose and cleanup criteria Tsaioun K, Stephens M, Hoffmann S, Maertens A, Busquet F, Hartung T Yu C EBTC and CAAT Johns Hopkins Argonne National Laboratory Bloomberg School of Public Health

P.192 An economic lab experiment to compare the risk and productivity between parallel and series production systems Akai K, Makino R, Takeshita J, Kudo T, Aoki K Shimane University

P.198 Multilayer command and control networks Eisenberg D, Kitsak M, Ganin A, Linkov I, Alderson D Arizona State University

P.199 Developmental toxicity assessment of various sizes of multiP.193 Persistence and stability of wall carbon nanotubes in mice after large-scale command and control repeated intratracheal instillation to networks initiate grouping and read across Ganin A, Kitsak M, Eisenberg D, Kobayashi N, Tanaka S, Ikarashi Y, Alderson D, Linkov I Hirose A* US Army Engineer Research and National Institute of Health Sciences Development Center, University of P.200 Risk choices of farms under Virginia, Northeastern University, the 2014 farm bill Arizona State University, Naval Liu X, Goodman T Postgraduate School Fort Valley State University P.194 Meta-analysis of cancer in P.201 Probabilistic risk assessment petroleum refinery workers of the exposure to chlorpyrifos from Schnatter A, DeVilbiss E, Chen M some edible herbal medicine ExxonMobil Biomedical Sciences, Inc. Chang B, Chen Y, Wu K, Chiang S* P.195 Influence of risk perception on China Medical University attitudes and norms regarding elecP.202 Risk perceptions and behavioral tronic cigarettes. adaptations to coupled environmental Trumbo C hazards in Phoenix, AZ Colorado State University Chakalian P, Larsen L, Gronlund C, P.196 Investigating a system- Stone B theoretic framework for mitigating Arizona State University, University complex risks in international trans- of Michigan, Georgia Institute of port of spent nuclear fuel Technology Williams A, Jones K*, Osborn D, Kalinina E, Mohagheghi A, Parks J Sandia National Laboratories P.197 A model for coupled population and infrastructure growth Snell M, Eisenberg D Arizona State University

Final Program

31

Tuesday 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM

10:30 AM – 12:00 PM

10:30 AM – 12:00 PM

10:30 AM – 12:00 PM

Marina 2

Marina 3

Marina 4

Marina 6

Spinnaker

T2-A Developing Methods for Understanding Infrastructure Risk at Multiple Scales

T2-B Microbial Risks in the Environment: Are We In Hot Water?

T2-C Recent Topics in Homeland Security and Counter-terrorism

T2-D Roundtable: States as Risk Policy Innovators

T2-E Roundtable: The Risk Analysis Field/Science

Chair: Sandra Hoffmann

Chair: Terje Aven

Co-chairs: Cameron MacKenzie

Chair: Emma Hartnett

10:30 AM

T2-A.1 10:30 AM

Estimating mean time to failure based on survey data: application to hybrid vehicles Lei X, MacKenzie C Iowa State University and IMSE

Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting

Chair: Henry Willis

10:30 AM T2-C.1 T2-B.1 Risk reduction via organoleptics?

Exploring climate and climate change impacts on the risks from drinking water Hartnett E, Wilson M, Comer N, Auld H, Sparling E, Smith B Risk Sciences International; Public 10:50 AM T2-A.2 Health Agency of Canada Modelling systemic criticalities T2-B.2 and risks in multi-modal transport 10:50 AM networks at the national scale Development of a combined growth and persistence model for legionella Pant R, Hall J pneumophila in biofilms in drinking University of Oxford water for QMRA models 11:10 AM T2-A.3 Kopeck K, Weir M* Modeling the risk of interdependent Division of Environmental Health infrastructure systems: an analysis Sciences, College of Public Health, The of water and energy systems under Ohio State University climate change uncertainty 11:10 AM T2-B.3 Baroud H Quantitative microbial risk assessVanderbilt University ment of Legionella and Mycobacterium 11:30 AM T2-A.4 avium in harvested rainwater Understanding the economic impacts Hamilton K, Haas C, Ahmed W of climate change in China and the Drexel University implications on the Chinese infraT2-B.4 structure system: a case study of 11:30 AM flooding Modeling risks from VTEC across multiple pathways Hu X, Surminski S, Hall J, Pant R Chapman B, Pintar K, Smith B* University of Oxford Public Health Agency of Canada

32

10:30 AM – 12:10 PM

Brevett C, Cox J Department of Homeland Security, Chemical Security Analysis Center

10:50 AM

T2-C.2

11:10 AM

T2-C.3

11:30 AM

T2-C.4

Overview of the Explosives Terrorism Risk Assessment (ExTRA) Gooding R, Bradley D DHS Chemical Security Analysis Center Modeling exposures in chemical release in indoor building scenarios using a 3 zone concept Wilson P, Hawkins B, Winkel D, Whittaker I, Gooding R, Bradley D, Cox J, Hauser K* Battelle Memorial Instituite Quantifying risk of terrorist transfers Powers D, Howard P ABS Consulting Inc.

The purpose of this roundtable is to discuss the role of states in risk policy innovation. Political scientists studying the role of states as sources of policy innovation have found that California has been a leader in policy innovation for the past century and that that role has only grown stronger in recent years. The roundtable will look at a number of recent risk policy innovations in California and discuss the process of policy innovation and diffusion using recent California examples to provide specific context for discussion, such as climate change (California’s carbon cap and trade program), energy efficiency, water resources policy, agricultural use of antibiotics, and air quality. Speakers will include people from state government, NGOs and academia.

As a professional activity, risk analysis (interpreted in a wide sense as in SRA contexts covering in particular risk assessment, risk communication and risk management) is young, not more than 30-40 years old. From this period we see the first scientific journals, papers and conferences covering fundamental ideas and principles on how to appropriately assess and manage risk. To a large extent, these ideas and principles still form the basis for risk analysis today. However, risk analysis has developed considerably since then. New and more sophisticated analysis methods and techniques have been developed, and risk analytical approaches and methods are now used in most societal sectors as illustrated by the range of specialty groups of SRA. Yet risk analysis struggles to be accepted as a separate/distinct scientific field; Sponsored by: there are strong reasons for being The Economics and Benefits Analysis concerned about the development of the risk area as discussed for Specialty Group example at the SRA annual meeting in December 2015. A key point made is the lack of consensus on fundamental concepts and principles; another the fact that there are rather few scientific positions (professorships) and university programs on all levels, covering risk analysis. Most of these degrees and positions are anchored in other more well-established fields, such as engineering and business, which allow for some specialisation in risk related topics. How can we obtain a strong development of risk analysis when young scholars cannot plan for a career in the field? In the Roundtable we will address these issues. More specifically we would like to discuss:

Tuesday 1. Is risk analysis actually a field or science? Why? Is it really important? And if it is, what is the core of this field or science?

10:30 AM – 12:00 PM

science, how can we best improve its scientific platform?

Chair: Sheree Pagsuyoin

Nautilus 1

T2-F Decision Tools for Managing 2. Seeing risk analysis is a field and Environmental Risks and Disasters

3. How can we improve the related practice of risk analysis? Participants: • Aven T • Guikema S • Schweizer PJ • Thompson KM • McComas K • Alderson D • Bouder F

10:30 AM – 12:00 PM

10:30 AM

T2-F.1

Interdependent vulnerabilities of US Economic Systems to disasters: an input-output key sector analysis Santos J George Washington University

10:30 AM – 12:00 PM

10:30 AM – 12:00 PM

Nautilus 2

Nautilus 4

Nautilus 5

T2-G Symposium: To Vape or Not to Vape: Vaping and New Health Risks

T2-I Symposium: Toward a Common Language of Risk in Occupational Health and Safety, Part I

T2-J Predicting Climate Change Support and Action

Co-chairs: Sara Henry, Daniel Conklin

10:30 AM

T2-G.1

Cardiovascular effects of exposure to Harmful and Potentially Harmful Constituents (HPHCs) of new and emerging tobacco products Conklin D, Chen L, Srivastava S 10:50 AM T2-F.2 University of Louisville and New York ADVISER model: an adaptive decision University tool for analyzing regional drought impacts 10:50 AM T2-G.2 Effects of e-cigarettes on respiratory Pagsuyoin S, Santos J mucosal immune responses University of Massachusetts Lowell Jaspers I 11:10 AM T2-F.3 University of North Carolina at Chapel GIS-based hotspot analysis of residual Hill antimicrobials in the environment 11:10 AM T2-G.3 Pagsuyoin S, Gondle R* Central nerve system effects from University of Massachusetts Lowell exposure to e-cigarettes in rodents 11:30 AM T2-F.4 during pregnancy and early life A multidisciplinary approach for dam Zelikoff J failure consequence analysis NYU Langone Medical Center Cao S, Ponnambalam K* 11:30 AM T2-G.4 University of Waterloo To vape or not to vape: questions and possible answers Henry S Retired Food and Drug Admin.

Chair: Tee Guidotti

10:30 AM Overview Guidotti T O+EH&M

10:50 AM

Chair: Graham Dixon

10:30 AM

T2-J.1

10:50 AM

T2-J.2

A conflict on consensus: current T2-I.1 critiques and future outlook on climate change consensus messaging research Dixon G, Ma Y, Hmielowski J Washington State University

T2-I.2

Understanding influences on electricians’ decision making: mental modeling for OH&S Kovacs D, Austin L, Thorne S, Evans N, Moody J Decision Partners; Electrical Safety Authority

The influence of information about carbon dioxide reduction (CDR) technologies on support for climate change mitigation strategies: A test of risk salience and risk compensation hypotheses Campbell-Arvai V, Hart P, Raimi K, 11:10 AM T2-I.3 Wolske K University of Michigan Occupational medicine perspective Guidotti T 11:10 AM T2-J.3 O+EH&M Perceived efficacy, action, and support 11:30 AM T2-I.4 for climate change risk reduction Bridging the divide beween speaking Crosman K, Bostrom A* University of Washington technical and hearing personal Boelter F 11:30 AM T2-J.4 RHP Risk Management Inc Climate change concerns, weather Co-sponsored by: expectations, and willingness to adapt Occupational Health and Safety Klima K, Bruine de Bruine W, Dessai S, Specialty Group, Risk Communication Lefevre C, Taylor A Specialty Group, Foundational Issues Carnegie Mellon University, University in Risk Analysis Specialty Group of Leeds, University College London

Final Program

33

Tuesday 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM

1:30 PM – 3:10 PM

1:30 PM – 3:00 PM

1:30 PM – 3:00 PM

1:30 PM – 3:00 PM

Marina 2

Marina 3

Marina 4

Marina 6

Spinnaker

T3-A Energy Systems and Risk

T3-B Public Perception of Risk and Stakeholder Input

T3-C Symposium: Hazard Classification and Risk Assessment Frameworks for Nanomaterials

T3-D Symposium: Environment, Health Risk and Cost-Benefit Analysis

T3-E Symposium: Foundational Issues in Risk Analysis II

Chair: Kristen Schell

1:30 PM

T3-A.1

Incorporating renewable generation risk and reliability measures into electricity system planning Schell K, Guikema S University of Michigan

Chair: Patricia Nance

1:30 PM

T3-B.1

Perceptions of environmental and social-psychological risk on the periphery of the Bakken Shale Junod A, Jacquet J The Ohio State University

Co-chairs: Jo Anne Shatkin, Christie Sayes

Chair: Amber Jessup

T3-D.1 1:30 PM

T3-E.1

1:50 PM

T3-E.2

2:30 PM T3-D.4 T3-C.3 Racial disparities in access to 2:30 PM

T3-E.4

1:30 PM

The value of enhancing consumer 1:30 PM T3-C.1 confidence in the food supply Tiered testing of Nano-TiO2 release Hammitt J, Hoffmann S potential from self-cleaning concrete Harvard University 1:50 PM T3-A.2 under a modeled scenario Evaluating the cost, safety and prolif- 1:50 PM T3-B.2 Kennedy A, Diamond S, Poda A, 1:50 PM T3-D.2 eration risks of small floating nuclear Stakeholder perceptions of water Weiss C, Brame J, Torres Cancel K, Exploring quantitative links between reactors systems and hydro-climate informa- Melby N, Lackey T, Harrison D, competing summaries of population tion in Guanacaste, Costa Rica Ford M, Abdulla A, Morgan M health impact Moser R, Rycroft T* Babcock M, Wong-Parodi G, Small M, Carnegie Mellon University, UC San Brand K, Campino-Ferrada E Army Engineer Research and Grossmann I Diego Telfer School of Management, Development Center Carnegie Mellon University University of Ottawa

2:10 PM

T3-A.3

2:30 PM

T3-A.4

Critical assessment of the foundations of power transmission and distribution reliability metrics and standards Nateghi R, Guikema S*, Wu Y, Bruss B University of Michigan

Finding fault with system safety risk analysis: a typology for criticism Goerlandt F Aalto University

Wolf in sheep’s clothing? A conceptual and empirical reconsideration of the value of ‘plausibility’ as assessment criterion in scenario planning Scheele R Stuttgart Research Center for 1:50 PM T3-C.2 Interdisciplinary Risk and Innovation 2:10 PM T3-B.3 Developing DoD guidance for evalu- 2:10 PM T3-D.3 Studies, University of Stuttgart Upper Midwestern conventional ation of engineered nano materials Benefits of air pollution abatement T3-E.3 farmers’ perceived vulnerability to during the systems acquisition across gender and socioeconomic 2:10 PM extreme precipitation event: a spatial process On the uncertainty definition given in position analysis the new ISO 14224 Cifuentes L, Borchers N Rak A, Underwood P, Shatkin J Gardezi M, Arbuckle J Selvik J Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile Noblis, Department of Defense, Vireo Iowa State University University of Stavanger Advisors

Correlated power plant failures in 2:30 PM T3-B.4 North America Improving invasive species management using risk analysis: the case of Murphy S, Apt J Asian carp Carnegie Mellon University Kokotovich A, Andow D University of Minnesota

2:50 PM

T3-B.5

The tragedy of the anti-commons: a solution for coordination failures in for a “NIMBY” post-industrial world Palma-Oliveira J, Trump B, Wood M, Linkov I University of Lisbon

34

Co-chairs: Floris Goerlandt, Jon Selvik

Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting

2:10 PM

Evaluating the current evidence for hazard- and risk-based OEL categories of nanomaterials Kuempel E National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health

community water service in Wake County, North Carolina: public health risks and costs of interventions MacDonald Gibson J, Stillo F University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

T3-C.4 Co-sponsored by: State-of-the-art nano risk assess- The Economics and Benefits Analysis ment frameworks and their relevance Specialty Group for decision making Ede J, Shatkin J Vireo Advisors, LLC 2:30 PM

Reflections on hazard / threat identification in complex systems: inductive versus deductive approaches Jensen A, Aven T University of Stavanger

Tuesday 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM

1:30 PM – 3:00 PM

1:30 PM – 3:00 PM

1:30 PM – 3:00 PM

1:30 PM – 3:00 PM

Nautilus 1

Nautilus 2

Nautilus 3

Nautilus 4

Nautilus 5

T3-F Symposium: Coastal Flood Risk and Resilience: Exploring the effects of sea level rise and approaches to mitigation for coastal communities

T3-G Dose-Response Modeling for Human Health Risk Assessment (I)

T3-H Where are Science and Risk Analysis Taking us on Gene Drives

T3-J All About Energy

Co-chairs: Ingrid Druwe, Lauren Brown

Chair: Todd Kuiken

T3-I Symposium: Toward a Common Language of Risk in Occupational Health and Safety, Part II

Chair: Christian Beaudrie

1:30 PM

1:30 PM Can

short-term

toxicity

1:30 PM T3-H.1 T3-G.1 The biological basis of gene drive

studies

T3-F.1 inform BMD estimation of long-term

Is it worth the effort? A case study of cumulative-based risk assessment versus scenario-based risk assessment methods for sea level rise. Lyle T Ebbwater Consulting

studies? Shao K Indiana University Bloomington

1:50 PM

T3-G.2

Bayesian re-analysis of lung tumor incidences in CD1 mice resulting 1:50 PM T3-F.2 from ‘whole life’ exposure to inorganic Managing coastal flood risks: a arsenic Structured Decision Making (SDM) Druwe I, Burgoon L approach to mitigating the impacts Oak Ridge Institute for Science of sea-level rise in Vancouver, British and Education, US Environmental Columbia Protection Agency, National Center for Environmental Assessment and Beaudrie C, Lyle T, Long G, Mills T US Army Engineer Research and Compass Resource Management Ltd. Development Center, Environmental and University of British Columbia Laboratory

2:10 PM

T3-F.3

2:10 PM

T3-G.3

T3-F.4 2:30 PM

T3-G.4

Educational tools for risk recognition and awareness of disaster mitigation as needed to lessen damage from tsunamis Yasuda M, Rui N Tohoku University

2:30 PM

Assessing the relationship between adult blood lead levels and cardiovascular disease related mortality Brown L, Lynch M Abt Associates

Incorporating more than the weather: Global extrapolations of fine particudifferentiating reservoir operations late matter mortality impacts: a based on seasonally varying opportu- comparison of two widely used concentration-response functions nity costs and value at risk Belova A, Greco S, Burnett R Bates M, Linkov I US Army Corps of Engineers, Engineer Abt Associates, Public Health Ontario, Health Canada Research & Development Center

Chair: Megan Canright

Co-chairs: Darnick Evensen, Chris Clarke

1:30 PM

T3-J.1

Ethical foundations of paying for technologies: Beyond the hype 1:30 PM T3-I.1 energy transitions Gould F Risk perception, risk communication Evensen D, Demski C, Pidgeon N and human language Cardiff University North Carolina State University O’Reilly M 1:50 PM T3-J.2 1:50 PM T3-H.2 SUNY School of Public Health and A meta-analytic review of factors Comparative risk analysis for agri- ARLS Consultants influencing public attitudes toward cultural genetic pest management technologies 1:50 PM T3-I.2 nuclear energy Elsensohn J, Burrack H, Brown Z, Perspectives of a risk communication Ho S, Leong X, Looi J, Chen L, Pang N, Tandoc E Kuzma J specialist Nanyang Technological University North Carolina State University Jardine C University of Alberta

2:10 PM

T3-H.3

Contrasting ecological risks and benefits of genetic biocontrol for invasive rodents Leitschuh C North Carolina State University and Genetic Engineering and Society Center at NCSU

2:10 PM

2:10 PM T3-J.3 T3-I.3 How geographic distance and political

ideology interact to influence public perception of unconventional oil/ natural gas development Clarke C, Budgen D, Hart P, Stedman R, Jacquet J, Evensen D, Boudet H 2:30 PM T3-I.4 George Mason University, Cornell Is harmonization possible? solutions University, University of Michigan, 2:30 PM T3-H.4 and looking at ISO South Dakota State University, Cardiff Scientific risk assessment for Redinger C University, Oregon State University synthetic gene drives: What does this Redinger 360, Inc. 2:30 PM T3-J.4 mean and how do we achieve it? Building informed and stable preferCo-sponsored by: Hosack G, Hayes K ences in communities affected by Occupational Health and Safety CSIRO new energy developments: the role of Specialty Group, Risk Communication fact sheets and deliberation Specialty Group, Foundational Issues in Risk Analysis Specialty Group Volken S, Hanus N, Trutnevyte E Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich and Carnegie Mellon University A behavioral perspective on risk Cunningham T National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health

Final Program

35

Tuesday 3:30 PM – 5:10 PM

3:30 PM – 5:10 PM

Marina 2

Marina 3

3:30 PM – 5:10 PM

T4-A Flood Risk Modeling and Analysis

T4-B Would You Like a Side of Norovirus With That Sandwich? Understanding Norovirus Co-chairs: Janey Camp, Hiba Baroud Transmission and Risk to Improve 3:30 PM T4-A.1 Risk Management in Retail Settings Assessing the resilience of coastal systems: a probabilistic approach Schultz M, Smith E US Army Corps of Engineers

Co-chairs: Regis Pouillot, Steven Beaulieu

3:30 PM

T4-A.5 4:30 PM

T4-B.4

4:50 PM

T4-B.5

Use of hazus and regional climate models to identify vulnerable transportation infrastructure due to future extreme precipitation events Camp J, Shaw A, Whyte D Vanderbilt University

Modelling the impact of ill food employee behavior and interventions on Norovirus transmission in retail food establishments Duret S, Pouillot R, Fanaselle W, Papafragkou E, Williams L, Liggans G, Van Doren J Food and Drug Administration Results and lessons learned from the risk assessment of norovirus in retail food facilities Fanaselle W, Duret S, Pouillot R, Papafragkou E, Liggans G, Williams L, Van Doren J Food and Drug Administration

36

Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting

3:30 PM – 5:10 PM

Marina 4

Marina 6

Spinnaker

T4-C Understanding Nanomaterial Health Risks

T4-D Revolutions in Benefits Analysis

T4-E Applying Risk Management to Hazards and Disasters

Co-chairs: Jeremy Gernand, Christie Sayes

Chair: Kevin Brand

Chair: Patrick Gurian

3:30 PM

3:30 PM T4-D.1 3:30 PM T4-E.1 T4-C.1 Challenges to product labeling: Natural hazards and preparedness: a

consumer protection or opportunism? multi-hazard scenario Bronfman N, Cisternas P* of nanoscale silver released from Berkeley Research Group National Research Center for Integrated consumer products Natural Disaster Management T4-D.3 Pang C, Hristozov D, Zabeo A, Pizzol L, 3:50 PM T4-E.2 Using FDA adverse event data to 3:50 PM Tsang M, Sayre P, Marcomini A estimate the avoided risk of allergic Consequences of biological hazards: Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, Italy reactions from bakery products a systematic mapping of the literature Co-sponsored by: through recalls Cogger N The Economics and Benefits Analysis Estrin A, Lasher A, Nolan N, Levine Massey University Specialty Group and the Society for J, Willig J, Brewer V, Chen Parker C, Benefit-Cost Analysis 4:10 PM T4-E.3 Markon A, Nsubuga J, Wolpert, BJ; A hypervolume approach for Grant E 3:50 PM T4-C.2 assessing risk under uncertainy Understanding our exposure to Federal government Yemshanov D, Koch F, Lu B, Cook G, emerging technologies: a screening 4:10 PM T4-D.4 level risk assessment of copper- Innovative experiments to explore Fournier R, Turgeon J containing micro- and nano-enabled possible mis-estimation of the net Natural Resources Canada products benefits of environmental, public 4:30 PM T4-E.4 Aquino G, Sayes C, Lujan H* health, and safety regulations Probabilistic consequence analyses Baylor University for concurrent accidental releases of Finkel A, Johnson B radiological materials from multiple University of Pennsylvania Law School, 4:10 PM T4-C.3 reactor units at a shared nuclear University of Michigan School of Public A clustering analysis of CNT pulmopower plant site: safety goal policy Health nary toxicity in rodents implications Ramchandran V, Gernand J 4:30 PM T4-D.5 Hudson D Pennsylvania State University What if revealed preference isn’t so Johns Hopkins University revealing? Insights from agent-based 4:30 PM T4-C.4 modeling and complex systems for 4:50 PM T4-E.5 Utilizing the adverse outcome the practice of benefit-cost analysis Managing risk to buildings from pathway model as a tool for elucicoastal storms: lessons learned from Campbell H dating zinc nanoparticle toxicity Hurricane Sandy Claremont Graduate University Sayes C Miller S, Gurian P*, Daley J, Elwell H, Baylor University Matsil M, Montalto F Drexel University 4:50 PM T4-C.5 Probabilistic approach for assessing

T4-B.1 infants’ health risks due to ingestion Cantor R, Cross P, Mackoul C

Norovirus dose-response modeling: use of multiple models in QMRA to 3:50 PM T4-A.2 describe uncertainty A post-event investigation of the 2008 Van Abel N, Schoen M, Meschke J Ghardaia (Algeria) flood and debris US EPA, Soller Environmental, flow disaster University of Washington Benouar D, Zelloum H, El Hadj F 3:50 PM T4-B.2 University of Science & Technology Houari Boumediene (USTHB) Modeling cross-contamination and survival of Norovirus in foodservice 4:10 PM T4-A.3 settings Quantitative risk assessment of Schaffner D, Igo M, Miranda R Natech scenarios triggered by Rutgers University different types of floods Villalba N, Ocampo F, Muñoz F 4:10 PM T4-B.3 Universidad de Los Andes Not so secret agents in retail food settings: application of an agent4:30 PM T4-A.4 based model to evaluate Norovirus Utilizing resilient processes to combat intervention strategies catastrophic events Beaulieu S, Mokhtari A, Anderson M, Snell M, Seager T Kelly R, Swanson S, Jaykus L Arizona State University Neptune and Company, Inc.

4:50 PM

3:30 PM – 5:00 PM

Testing the validity of proposed in vitro toxicity forecasting models for predicting pulmonary responses in rodents Gernand J, Ramchandran V Penn State University

Tuesday 3:30 PM – 5:10 PM

3:30 PM – 5:10 PM

3:30 PM – 5:10 PM

3:30 PM – 5:10 PM

3:30 PM – 5:10 PM

Nautilus 1

Nautilus 2

Nautilus 3

Nautilus 4

Nautilus 5

T4-F Risk and Resilience in Infrastructure Networks

T4-G Consumer Exposure and Tools

T4-H Policy and Risk Goverance Landscape Around Gene Drives

T4-I Symposium: European Perceptions of Climate Change

Co-chairs: Jade Mitchell, Pravin Chopade

Co-chairs: Rosemary Zaleski, Annette Guiseppie-Elie

Chair: Caroline Leitschuh

Chair: Nick Pidgeon

T4-J Symposium: US and UK Perceptions on Risk, Resilience, Fairness and Disproportionality in the Case of Fracking

3:30 PM

T4-F.2 3:30 PM

Network resilience of urban transportation infrastructure Ganin A, Kitsak M, Linkov I University of Virginia, Northeastern University, US Army Engineer Research and Development Center

3:50 PM

T4-H.1 3:30 PM

from the National Advancing models and data for char- Academy of Science committee on acterizing exposures to chemicals in non-human gene drives and responsible conduct consumer products Delborne J Guiseppi-Elie A, Isaacs K, Dionisio K, Phillips K, Wambaugh J, Price P North Carolina State University US Environmental Protection Agency

T4-F.3 3:50 PM

Risk analysis and systems integration of fleet electric vehicles with the power grid Thorisson H, Almutairi A, Alsultan M*, Collier Z, Slutzky D, Wheeler J, Lambert J University of Virginia

3:30 PM T4-G.1 Reflections

T4-G.2

Advances in exposure assessment: CEM updates and OECD use code activities Fehrenbacher M, Bevington C, Hall F US Environmental Protection Agency

4:10 PM

T4-G.3

REACH consumer exposure and risk 4:10 PM T4-F.4 tools Framework for computational risk Qian H, Dudzina T, Rodriguez C, Zaleski analysis of large networks R Chopade P, Crowther K, Zhan J, Roy K ExxonMobil Biomedical Sciences, Inc. North Carolina A&T State University, 4:30 PM T4-G.4 MITRE Corporation, University of Tiering consumer product exposure Nevada-Las Vegas tools 4:30 PM T4-F.5 Cowan-Ellsberry C, Greggs W Expert evaluation of the water crisis in CE2 Consulting, Soleil Consulting Flint, Michigan 4:50 PM T4-G.5 Mitchell J, Rose J, Donahue D Creating a web portal to facilitate Michigan State University access to consumer exposure science methods, databases, and projects Becker R American Chemistry Council

T4-I.1

EPCC - the European perceptions of climate change project Pidgeon N, Steentjes K, Poortinga W, Corner A, Bohm G, Tvinnereim E, Arnold A, Sonnberger M, Mays C, Poumadere M Cardiff University, University Bergen, 3:50 PM T4-H.2 University Stuttgart, Symlog Paris Mechanisms to engage scientific and T4-I.2 policy communities on risk gover- 3:50 PM nance challenges of gene drives Risky transitions — how public perceptions of the energy transitions Palmer M, Evans S differ across countries and cultures Stanford University Annika A, Scheer D, Sonnberger M 4:10 PM T4-H.3 University of Stuttgart CRISPR without walls: myths and T4-I.3 realities about the democratization of 4:10 PM genetic technologies Hope or fear, outrage or guilt — which emotions do people feel in response Kuiken T to climate change? A comparison North Carolina State University across four countries 4:30 PM T4-H.4 Böhm G On Gene drives: scientific uncertainty, Unversity of Bergen technical safeguards and policy gaps 4:30 PM T4-I.4 Oye K The role of social processes in Massachusetts Institute of Technology shaping perceptions of climate 4:50 PM T4-H.5 change: a comparison across four Systems-thinking about gene drives european countries and risk governance: findings from a Steentjes K, Pidgeon N, Poortinga W, deliberative workshop Corner A Cardiff University Kuzma J NC State University

Chair: Barbara Harthorn

3:30 PM

T4-J.1

3:50 PM

T4-J.2

4:10 PM

T4-J.3

4:30 PM

T4-J.4

4:50 PM

T4-J.5

Place-based hazard risk perception: spatial disproportionalities in the context of fracking Collins M, Harthorn B, Satterfield T, Copeland L SUNY-ESF Is fracking morally wrong? How to answer the question. Evensen D Cardiff University

Health risk perception, justice and bodily resilience in US and UK public perceptions of fracking Harthorn B, Partridge T, Enders C, Thomas M, Pidgeon N University of California Santa Barbara Deliberating shale development in the US and UK: emergent views on issues of urgency and inequality Partridge T, Harthorn B, Thomas M, Pidgeon N University of California, Santa Barbara

Measuring resilience: insights, chal4:50 PM T4-I.5 lenges and the problem of thresholds Death or taxes? Explaining what Satterfield T, Kaplan-Hallam M, Tam J, people associate with climate change Wilson N, Chan K, Bennett N in four countries University of British Columbia Tvinnereim E Uni Research Rokkan Center for Social Studies

Final Program

37

Wednesday 8:30 AM – 10:00 AM

8:30 AM – 10:00 AM

8:30 AM – 10:00 AM

8:30 AM – 10:00 AM

Marina 2

Marina 3

Marina 4

Marina 6

Spinnaker

W1-A Critical Infrastructure Risk Management

W1-B What You Don’t Know Can Kill You: Emerging Disease Risk and Resilience

W1-C Deterrence Analysis in Homeland Security and Defense

W1-D The Economics of Health, Drugs, and Difficult Bugs

Co-chairs: Richard John, Jinshui Cui

Chair: Nellie Lew

W1-E Symposium: Transparency and Uncertainty Analysis: Benefits and Pitfalls

Co-chairs: Hiba Baroud, Naleghi, R

8:30 AM

W1-A.1

Reducing risk magnification in infrastructure failures Zimmerman R New York University

Co-chairs: Charles Haas, Sanaa Moez

8:30 AM

8:30 AM

W1-C.1 8:30 AM

tion between affect, risk perception and self-efficacy to demotivate an adversary Burns W Decision Research

8:50 AM

Drugs”: medical marketplace vs. FDA Abdukadirov S Mercatus Center, George Mason University

Defender-user coordination and attacker deterrence in a three-way behavioral cyber security game Cui J, John R, Rosoff H University of Southern California

happens to risk regulation? Thierer A George Mason University

9:10 AM

what should Europe do? Lofstedt R Kings College London

W1-D.3 9:10 AM

Behavioral responses to health infor9:10 AM W1-C.3 mation and warnings An interactive real-time behavioral Lew N, Lavaty R, Wolff C, Peckham J, game for cyber security Wood D, Muth M, Karns S, Brophy J Kusumastuti S, Rosoff F, John R U.S. Food and Drug Administration University of Southern California

9:30 AM

W1-E.1

Uncertainty analysis – a necessity for transparency Foreman J ExxonMobil Biomedical Sciences, Inc.

8:50 AM W1-D.2 8:50 AM W1-E.2 W1-C.2 As software eats the world, what Evidence based uncertainty analysis:

9:30 AM

W1-E.3

Uncertainty analysis to inform risk management O’Connor R National Science Foundation

9:30 AM W1-E.4 W1-D.4 Uncertainty according to EFSA

W1-C.4 Calculating the Expected Net Present Sahlin U

Behavioral experimentation of cyber attacker deterrence with deter testbed Rosoff H, Blythe J, Kusumastuti S, 9:30 AM W1-B.4 John R Risk assessment for Transfusion- University of Southern California Transmission of ZIKA Virus (TTZIKV) in Puerto Rico Yang H, Chada K, Huang Y, Forshee R, Anderson S US Food and Drug Administration

Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting

Chair: George Gray

W1-D.1

W1-B.1 Deterrence: exploiting the connec- Protecting patients from “Innocuous 8:30 AM

Risks from Ebola virus discharge from hospitals to sewer workers Haas C, Rycroft T, Casson L, Bibby K Drexel University and University of 8:50 AM W1-A.2 Pittsburgh Critical infrastructure protection and weather-related events in Brazil and 8:50 AM W1-B.2 Canada: an overview Geographic risk assessment of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease Caruzzo A, Santos L, Gyakum J, Joe P and evaluation of blood donor deferral McGill University and risk mitigation options 9:10 AM W1-A.3 Huang Y, Bui-Klimke T, Gregori L, Probabilistic modeling of water Asher D, Forshee R, Anderson S, Yang supply safety measures in drinking H water systems in arid areas Food and Drug Administration Lindhe A, Rosen L, Johansson P, 9:10 AM W1-B.3 Norberg T Modeling the risk of human toxoChalmers University of Technology plasma gondii infection through consumption of meat products in the United States Pradhan A, Guo M University of Maryland, College Park

38

8:30 AM – 10:00 AM

Value (ENPV) for the development Lund University, Sweden of a rapid Point-of-Care diagnostic (POC) device for C. Difficile and Carbapenem-resistant enterobacteriaceae (CRE) Jessup A, Sertkaya A*, Wong H HHS Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation, Eastern Research Group, Inc. Co-sponsored by: The Economics and Benefits Analysis Specialty Group and the Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis

Wednesday 8:30 AM – 10:00 AM

8:30 AM – 10:00 AM

8:30 AM – 10:00 AM

8:30 AM – 10:10 AM

8:30 AM – 10:00 AM

Nautilus 1

Nautilus 2

Nautilus 3

Nautilus 4

Nautilus 5

W1-F Storming the Risk and Decision Analysis Bastille with Information Infantry

W1-G Dose Response Modeling for Human Health Risk Assessment (III)

W1-H Vaccines and Risk: A global Perspective on Lessons Learned

W1-I Symposium: Risk in the New ISO Regime

W1-J From Seismicity to Pharmaceuticals: The Role of Trust

Chair: Gary Marchant

Chair: Charles Redinger

Chair: Christina Demski

Chair: Philip Howard

Co-chairs: John Lipscomb, Kenneth Bogen

8:30 AM

W1-F.1

The value of privacy when data becomes commoditised: an experimental investigation Bryce C, Chmura T, Moore N University of Nottingham

8:30 AM

8:30 AM

W1-H.1 8:30 AM

W1-I.1 8:30 AM

8:50 AM

W1-H.2

8:50 AM

8:50 AM W1-J.2 W1-I.2 Medicines transparency and trust in

9:10 AM

W1-I.3 9:10 AM

W1-J.3

9:30 AM

W1-J.4

Friend or foe? Challenges in influenza W1-G.1 treatment and prevention Database Rath B Vienna Vaccine Safety Initiative

Understanding the Uncertainty Factor (UFD) Hoang M, Gray G Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, GWU Milken 8:50 AM W1-F.3 Institute School of Public Health Big data - connecting risk insights to 8:50 AM W1-G.2 business strategy Sustained oxidative stress and Pierce A, Kipperman F, Hill T dysregulated adaptive hyperplasia: General Electric Co.,Praedicat hypothesized threshold-like pathway 9:10 AM W1-F.4 for most chemically induced tumors Strategic-level cybersecurity risk Bogen K assessment for decision-makers Exponent Health Sciences Howard P, Arimoto C 9:10 AM W1-G.3 ABS Group Choosing effects and points of departure for Provisional Advisory Levels (PALs) Lipscomb J, Garrahan K, Nichols T U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

A Canadian national perspective on vaccine hesitancy: results of an online survey regarding a ’wicked’ risk communication problem Driedger S, Greenberg J, Dubé E University of Manitoba, Carleton University and Institut National de Santé publique du Québec

Using organizational objectives and context to drive risk management: risk in the new ISO regime Redinger C Redinger 360, Inc. Risk in ISO 14001:2015 — environmental management Chaudhry R Becton Dickinson

Risk in ISO 45001:xxxx — occupational health and safety management 9:10 AM W1-H.3 Toy V Community risk perception of flu US Technical Advisory Group to ISO vaccination campaigns in New 45001 (formally with IBM ) Zealand W1-I.4 Gray L, MacDonald C, Mackie B, Paton 9:30 AM A registrar’s perspective on EHS D, Baker M, Johnston D risk management within the ISO University of Otago, Wellington paradigm 9:30 AM W1-H.4 Wecker-Seipke D 9:30 AM W1-G.4 The patient voice in the 21st Century: BSI Low-dose extrapolation of the are we listening? 9:50 AM W1-I.5 harmonic mean method for dose Holt D, Bouder F Roundtable Discussion addition in mixtures risk assessment Maastricht University Redinger C Swartout J Redinger 360, Inc. US Environmental Protection Agency

W1-J.1

Delivering energy transitions: the importance of trust Demski C, Evensen D, Pidgeon N Cardiff University

europe: results from 6 member state surveys Way D, Evensen D, Bouder F, Lofstedt R King’s College London Communicating induced seismicity risk including low-probability highconsequence events and expert confidence: the cases of deep geothermal energy and shale gas Knoblauch T, Stauffacher M, Trutnevyte E ETH Zürich Societal acceptance of enhanced geothermal systems and their potential for induced seismic activity McComas K, Lu H, Keranen K, Furtney M, Song H Cornell University

Final Program

39

Wednesday 10:30 AM – 12:10 PM

10:30 AM – 12:10 PM

10:30 AM – 12:10 PM

10:30 AM – 12:10 PM

Marina 2

Marina 3

Marina 4

Marina 6

Spinnaker

W2-A Repeated Hazards and their Influence on the Evolution of Regional Vulnerability

W2-B Hot Topics and Emerging Risks in Ecological Risk Assessment

W2-C Current and Future Global Catastrophic Risks

W2-D Symposium: Burdens From Risk: Valuing Outcomes for Workers and the Public

W2-E Symposium: Foundational Issues in Risk Analysis III

Co-chairs: Seth Guikema, Allison Reilly

Chair: Wayne Landis

10:30 AM

10:30 AM

Chair: Anthony Barrett

Chair: Frank Hearl

10:30 AM W2-C.1 W2-B.1 Technology forecasting for analyzing 10:30 AM

W2-A.1 Methods development and environ- future global catastrophic risks

Beat the heat: a statistical analysis of the urban heat island Logan T, Guikema S, Zaitchik B, OMeara K, Liberman K, Zou C, Nichols R University of Michigan

10:50 AM

W2-A.2

11:10 AM

W2-A.3

11:30 AM

W2-A.4

11:50 AM

W2-A.5

Agent based modeling of repeated hazards: modeling to enhance interdisciplinary collaboration Guikema S, Reilly A University of Michigan The role of risk perceptions in shaping coastal development dynamics Magliocca N, Walls M* Resources for the Future

Higher ground: leveraging Baltimore’s topography to increase social and climate resiliency OMeara K, Zaitchik B, Ferreira C Maryland Institute College of Art Identification of critical storms conditions for hurricane-induced coastal surge in the Mid-Atlantic Region Melick K, Fu Z, Igusa T*, Garzon J, Ferreira C Dewberry, Johns Hopkins University, George Mason University

40

10:30 AM – 12:00 PM

10:30 AM W2-E.1 W2-D.1 Testing for resilience in energy

Using attributable risk to assess the burden of worker injury and illness and prioritize research and prevention Pana-Cryan R National Institute for Occupational 10:50 AM W2-C.2 Safety and Health Nuclear winter: science and policy 10:50 AM W2-D.2 Frankel M, Scouras J 10:50 AM W2-B.2 Johns Hopkins University Applied Application of health-related quality Biorisks — a generic risk assessment Physics Laboratory of life measures to foodborne risks framework for organisms Hoffmann S 11:10 AM W2-C.3 USDA Economic Research Service Eleblu J, Danquah E, Dzidzienyo D, Nuclear autumn, deterrence, crisis Bosompem K, Keese P stability and adversary models, tying 11:10 AM W2-D.3 University of Ghana them together to address a global Measuring the benefits of FDA import 11:10 AM W2-B.3 catastrophic risk inspections USDA regulation of confined Lathrop J McLaughlin C field releases of genetically engi- Decision Strategies, LLC U.S. Food and Drug Administration neered organisms expressing 11:30 AM W2-C.4 11:30 AM pharmaceuticals W2-D.4 Value alignment for advanced Valuing quality-adjusted life years for Vieglais C, Rappaport K, Jones M U.S. Department of Agriculture, Animal machine learning systems as an exis- benefit-cost analysis tential priority and Plant Health Inspection Service Hammitt J, Robinson L* Tailor J, LaVictoire P, Critch A* Harvard University 11:30 AM W2-B.4 Machine Intelligence Research Institute Requirements and schemes for 11:50 AM W2-D.5 W2-C.5 Estimating future costs of the world the ecological risk assessment and 11:50 AM adaptive management of gene drive Artificial general intelligence risk trade center health program from organisms. analysis cancer risk data Landis W, Sawyer K Yampolskiy R Asfaw A Western Washington University, The University of Louisville Centers for Disease Control and National Academies of Sciences, Prevention, National Institute for Engineering, and Medicine Occupational Safety and Health mental research on antibiotic uptake into food crops Bartelt-Hunt S, Sallach J, Snow D, Li X, Hodges L University of Nebraska-Lincoln and Michigan State University

Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting

Chair: Myriam Merad

Barrett A, Baum S Global Catastrophic Risk Institute and ABS Consulting

Co-sponsored by: The Economics and Benefits Analysis Specialty Group, Occupational Health and Safety Specialty Group and the Society for Benefit-Cost Analysis

scenarios: a summary of the National German Academies Report Renn O, Dreyer M Instutute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS)

10:50 AM

W2-E.2

11:10 AM

W2-E.3

11:30 AM

W2-E.4

11:50 AM

W2-E.5

Reflections on assessment frameworks for safety and security risk prevention actions and public risk prevention policies Merad M, Aven T INERIS Current changes in risk perspectives and understanding: implications for risk regulation Røyksund M University of Stavanger Vision Zero and the ALARP principle: can they be unified? Soerskaar L, Abrahamsen E, Selvik J University of Stavanger (UiS) Three risk conundrums in the design of development projects Goble R, Carr E, Downs T Clark University

Wednesday 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM

10:30 AM – 12:00 PM

10:30 AM – 12:00 PM

10:30 AM – 12:00 PM

10:30 AM – 12:00 PM

Nautilus 1

Nautilus 2

Nautilus 3

Nautilus 4

Nautilus 5

W2-F Symposium: Advances in the use of Mechanistic Data in Evaluating Carcinogenic Risk

W2-G Applied Exposure Assessment

W2-H New Molecular Data Streams as Drivers of Next Gen Risk Assessments

W2-I Maps, Graphs, and Tweets: Geospatial Elements of Risk Communication

W2-J Managing Crises: Institutions, Media Coverage, and Messaging

Chair: Dominic Way

Chair: Julie Demuth

Co-chairs: Sara Goto, Joe Arvai

Co-chairs: Mary Manibusan, Rita Schoeny

10:30 AM

Chair: Tenaille Walker

10:30 AM

W2-G.1

Why do we need exposure to inform 10:30 AM W2-H.1 10:30 AM W2-I.1 10:30 AM W2-J.1 W2-F.1 an integrated approach for assessing Molecular data is driving risk assess- The influence of interactivity and Institutional stereotypes in the context

How well do High Throughput Screening (HTS) assay data predict in vivo rodent carcinogenicity of pesticides? Cox T, Popken D, Kaplan A, Plunkett L*, Becker R Cox Associates

alternatives? Mason A, Howard B, Arnold S, Kingsbury T American Chemistry Council

10:50 AM

W2-G.2

Assessing benzene exposures and risk among vehicle mechanics in the 10:50 AM W2-F.2 U.S. and abroad Key characteristics of carcinogens as Williams P a basis for organizing data on mecha- E Risk Sciences, LLP nisms of carcinogenesis 11:10 AM W2-G.3 Smith M, Guyton K, Gibbons C, Fritz J, Portier C, Rusyn I, DeMarini D, Caldwell The release of Nanoscale copper phthalocyanine from automobile J, Kavlock R, Cogliano V* coating and their transformation US Environmental Protection Agency in environmental (freshwater) and 11:10 AM W2-F.3 biological (cell culture) media A method for quantitative scoring of Pang C, Neubauer N, Hristozov D, causality for side-by side comparison Marcomini A, Wolleben W of confidence for alternative MOAs Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, Italy (including case examples) 11:30 AM W2-G.4 Becker R, Manibusan M Quantifying the environmental burden American Chemistry Council of cancer in Ontario, Canada 11:30 AM W2-F.4 Greco S, Young S, MacIntyre E, Kim J, Discussion Candido E, Copes R Public Health Ontario, Cancer Care Ontario

ment changes for international and national decision making on health related subjects Marchant G Arizona State University

uncertainty on reasoning with maps that depict an environmental hazard Severtson D, Roth R, Sack C Edgewood College

of trust in, and cooperation with, organizations facing hazard management decisions. Johnson B, DeGarmo D Decision Research, University of 10:50 AM W2-I.2 Oregon Communicating complex risk inforW2-J.2 mation to high and low numerates: 10:50 AM the role of visual attention on relevant How companies manage risks to information and good instruction their reputations: public perceptions of corporate behavior in response to Keller C controversies ETH Zurich Goto S, Sütterlin B, Arvai J 11:10 AM W2-I.3 University of Michigan Examining the dynamic ways people W2-J.3 evaluate and respond to evolving 11:10 AM hurricane risks Improving food safety crisis commuDemuth J, Morss R, Palen L, Anderson nications: an experimental study on public perception K, Watts J, Barton M Wu F, Hallman W National Center for Atmospheric Research Rutgers University

10:50 AM

W2-H.2

11:10 AM

W2-H.3

11:30 AM

11:30 AM W2-I.4 11:30 AM W2-J.4 W2-H.4 Shale gas and hydrofracking in the US: Risk, media, and licorice: stake-

Molecular variability data streams are driving risk assessment changes for regulatory decisions on precision medicines and for personal injury lawsuits Hartley K LSP Group LLC The epigenetic seed and soil model: a framework for understanding the role of environmental history in disease susceptibility and risk assessment McCullough S U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Next generation human health decision-making incorporating population and inter-individual variability Chiu H Texas A&M University

analyzing conversations on Twitter De Marcellis-Warin N, Backus A, Warin T, N Harvard Center for Risk Analysis, Harvard T. Chan School of Public Health, Polytechnique Montreal, HEC Montreal and CIRANO

holders’ perceptions of and involvement in media coverage of the 2014 West Virginia water crisis Simis Wilkinson M University of Wisconsin-Madison

Final Program

41

Wednesday 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM

1:30 PM – 3:00 PM

1:30 PM – 3:00 PM

1:30 PM – 3:00 PM

Marina 2

Marina 3

Marina 4

Marina 6

Spinnaker

W3-A Risk and Uncertainty Analysis: Applications in Hurricane Modeling and Cyber Security

W3-B Symposium: Decision Making in Food Safety: Perspectives on Decision Analysis Approches

W3-C Presidential Roundtable: Coming of Age of Social Sciences in Risk Research and Future Challenges

W3-D Symposium: Looking Back at the Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point (HACCP) Revolution

W3-E Symposium: Foundational Issues in Risk Analysis IV

Co-chairs: Moez Sanaa, Igor Linkov

Chair: Andreas Klinke

Co-chairs: Allison Reilly, Giovanni Sansavini

1:30 PM

W3-A.1 1:30 PM

Identifying and management cyberphysical risks in smart buildings Crowther K MITRE Corporation

W3-B.1

Structured decision making applied to wicked problems: using Bayesian belief networks to make decisions under uncertainty Beaulieu S, Stockton T, Wind J 1:50 PM W3-A.2 Neptune and Company, Inc., Partners Subsidizing cybersecurity informa- in Sustainability Integration (PSI) tion sharing: a game between A 1:50 PM W3-B.2 Government and N Companies Using FDA-iRISK® to quantify uncerPala A, Zhuang J tainties in tiered and probabilistic University at Buffalo ways and implications for decision 2:10 PM W3-A.3 making Modeling homeowner hurricane Chen Y, Paoli G, Hartnett E, Ruthman T, insurance purchasing behavior Pouillot R*, Van Doren J, Dennis S Wang D, Davidson R, Trainor J, Nozick FDA/CFSAN L, Kruse J 2:10 PM W3-B.3 University of Delaware, Cornell From problems to solutions: experiUniversity, East Carolina University ence feedback on the use of multiple 2:30 PM W3-A.4 criteria decision aiding methods to Presenting the evolution of hurricane assess risks uncertainty over time with scenario- Merad Myriam based hazard trees INERIS Yang K, Davidson R, Nozick L, Blanton 2:30 PM W3-B.4 B, Blanton C Approaches for dealing with uncerUniversity of Delaware tainty and variability in decision analysis for food safety Sanaa M French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health & Safety

Over many years, risk research and the application of risk analysis in practice have been henpecked by a prevailing techno-scientific risk culture that natural-scientific and technical experts are capable to determine mathematically the probability of occurrence, measure potential damages and estimate the consequences of risks. Models and methods have been developed and refined that made hazards and threats look like to be predictable and calculable. However, implications drawn from the notion of risk society made increasingly apparent that some human activities in modern societies bear risks which hazardousness might not only produce irremediable consequences, but also are not calculable and reasonably foreseeable because of cause-effect relationships that are spatially and timely unleashed as a result of a nonlinear and stochastic nature. This led to a gradual paradigm shift and an increasing attraction of social sciences in risk research and its promise to go beyond the limits of traditional risk analysis. Today, social sciences are widely in use in academic risk research and socio-political practice. The social science perspective has transposed the techno-scientific thinking about risk and uncertainty; it has illuminated the explanatory power and infused interdisciplinary risk research and real world risk management. Far from being merely a social science accommodation to classical approaches of risk research, theories, concepts, analytical approaches and methods of disciplines, such as sociology, psychology, political science, human geography, and economics, create something new and innovative by crossing boundaries and lead to a fuller academic and public discourse, richer understanding, better analysis and deduced interpretations of how society and politics grasp risk and respond to it. The Round Table distills key developments and discernments in major social science domains, such as perception, communication, public participation, trust and governance, and discusses the most important research and practical trends and challenges for the future.

Participants: • Robert Goble • Katherine McComas • Ortwin Renn • Nick Pidgeon • Michael Siegrist

42

1:30 PM – 3:00 PM

Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting

Chair: Travis Minor

Chair: Roger Flage

1:30 PM

1:30 PM W3-E.1 W3-D.1 Conceptualizing and handling uncer-

1:50 PM

W3-D.2

A retrospective analysis of the costs and benefits of USDA’s meat HACCP rule Restrepo B, Schuttringer E* US Food and Drug Administration

A retrospective analysis of procedures for the safe and sanitary processing and importing of fish and fishery products: the seafood HACCP rule Marasteanu I, Sassi A U.S Food and Drug Administration

2:10 PM

W3-D.3

A retrospective analysis of the costs and benefits of FDA’s juice HACCP rule Minor T, Parrett M, Sassi A*, Vardon P Food and Drug Administration

tainty in predictive data models for risk analysis Flage R, Guikema S University of Stavanger (Roger Flage) and University of Michigan (SD Guikema)

1:50 PM

W3-E.2

2:10 PM

W3-E.3

Robustness to uncertainty: What does it mean and how should we best deal with it in a risk management context? Sahlin U, Aven T Lund University, Sweden and University of Stavanger, Norway

Thoughts on robust uncertainty analysis for infrastructure climate resilience investments Francis R, Sahlin U, Schmitt K George Washington University, Lund 2:30 PM W3-D.4 University, Concordia University Evolution of QMRAs in food safety W3-E.4 decision-making: 20 years after the 2:30 PM Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Ensuring constant risk levels by anticipating the development of riskPoint rule increasing gaps between rules and KAUSE J practice Food Safety and Inspection Bjørnsen K, Aven T Service-USDA University of Stavanger Sponsored by: The Economics and Benefits Analysis Specialty Group

Wednesday 1:30 PM – 3:00 PM

1:30 PM – 3:00 PM

1:30 PM – 3:00 PM

1:30 PM – 3:00 PM

1:30 PM – 3:00 PM

Nautilus 1

Nautilus 2

Nautilus 3

Nautilus 4

Nautilus 5

W3-F Symposium: Making Air Pollutant Risk Estimates Policy Relevant...

W3-G Melding DoseResponse Relationships

W3-H Roundtable: Writing a Key Document: Principles and Guidelines for Applied Risk Management

W3-I Symposium: Incorporating, Mapping, and Communicating Uncertainty in Geospatial Risk Analysis to Support Informed Decisions

W3-J Symposium: Toward Resilient Government

Chair: Anne Bichteler

Co-chairs: Anne Smith, Tony Cox

1:30 PM

1:30 PM W3-G.1 W3-F.1 Development of an inhalation unit risk

Rebuilding consistency between the health risk analyses for a NAAQS review and the rationale for the NAAQS decision Smith A NERA Economic Consulting

factor for cadmium Haney J Texas Commission on Environmental Quality

1:50 PM

W3-G.2

A novel benchmark dose estimation 1:50 PM W3-F.2 approach for continuous endpoints Statistical and model uncertainty in Chen Q, Shao K the estimated risk of lung function Indiana University Bloomington decrements due to ozone exposure 2:10 PM W3-G.3 Glasgow G, Smith A Constrained multiple imputation by NERA Economic Consulting chained equations: a case study in 2:10 PM W3-F.3 estimation and modeling on data More objective causal interpretation missing below the limit of detection of exposure-response data Bichteler A, Wikoff D, Harris M Cox T ToxStrategies, Inc. Cox Associates and University of 2:30 PM W3-G.4 Colorado Advancing dose-response models to 2:30 PM W3-F.4 incorporate genetic and epigenetic Approaches to characterizing model data: use of Bayesian belief networks uncertainty Zabinski J, MacDonald Gibson J* Gray G University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill GWU Milken Institute School of Public Health

Chair: John Lathrop This roundtable advances the efforts of the Applied Risk Management Specialty Group to facilitate the transfer of established knowledge in risk management to applied users. At last year’s roundtable, an opportunity was identified to develop risk management “verification and validation” procedures, beginning with a set of core principles by which one can judge the quality of a risk management effort. The Applied Risk Management Specialty Group held an August webinar on this topic and is otherwise beginning a multi-year, SRA collaborative effort to develop Principles and Guidelines for Effective Risk Management. We define risk management as including risk identification, assessment, analysis and communication, all of those functions in the service of effective risk management. We are starting with statements on core values, principles, and contemporary challenges. Thus far, we have identified eleven domains of application (e.g. finance, governance) and twenty challenges associated with one or more of those domains. While that taxonomy is daunting, the mental discipline of developing principles and guidelines that address all of those challenges across all of those domains forces us to think at a very fundamental level. We will cover as many domains as we can with our current group, then invite others to participate in extending our work to other domains. We will conduct this roundtable as a working session, to acquire as many ideas as we can from all participants. The panelists will each pose key core values, principles, challenges and dilemmas we have thus far identified, then call for ideas and arguments from everyone in the room. One of our underlying agendas is to enlist others in our concept development and writing effort, in particular SRA members outside of our Specialty Group. As this effort grows, we seek to expand collaborations between SRA and allied organizations. All of the panelists have been active in writing the current draft of the document.

Chair: Piet Sellke

1:30 PM

W3-J.1

Use of indicators in the assessChair: Matthew Mayo ment of the resilience of critical 1:30 PM W3-I.2 infrastructures Positional uncertainty in imagery Jovanovic A, Renn O, Linkov I analysis: establishing historical Steinbeis Adv. Risk. Technologies site operations and evaluating land W3-J.2 cover evolution in support of risk 1:50 PM The crying gap in governance for assessment building regional infrastructure resilMayo M, Ikeda S ience in extreme events Gradient McDaniels T 1:50 PM W3-I.3 University of British Columbia Testing methods for conveying uncerW3-J.3 tainty on maps: a synthesis of five 2:10 PM Expert involvement in science develstudies opment: (re-)evaluation of an early Severtson D screening tool for carbon storage site Edgewood College characterization 2:10 PM W3-I.4 Scheer D, Konrad W, Class H, Kissinger Representing uncertainty in envi- A, Knopf S, Noack V ronmental decision support models: University Stuttgart - ZIRIUS progress and illustrative case study in 2:30 PM W3-J.4 risk based decisionmaking Resilience and terrorism: how to Stewart R, Morton A, Dolislager F prepare the public Oak Ridge National Laboratory Sellke, Piet P Dialogik

Final Program

43

Wednesday 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM

3:30 PM – 5:10 PM

3:30 PM – 5:10 PM

3:30 PM – 5:10 PM

3:30 PM – 5:10 PM

Marina 2

Marina 3

Marina 4

Marina 6

Spinnaker

W4-A Infrasturcture Systems Resilience Modeling

W4-B Symposium: Risk-Based Approaches for the Safety of Food and Dietary Supplements

W4-C Recent Topics in Cyber Security

W4-D Public Sector and Transportation Risks

W4-E Managing Risks in Businesses and other Institutions

Co-chairs: Shaye Friesen, Diane Henshel

Chair: Ali Gungor

Chair: Helen Canjar

Chair: S. Chatterjee

3:30 PM

W4-A.1

Repair, rebuild, or replace? Protecting aging infrastructure from hazards and threats Alderson D, Brendecke J, Lin K Naval Postgraduate School

Co-chairs: Eric Dube, Michelle Catlin

3:30 PM

W4-B.1 3:30 PM

Fit-for-purpose food safety risk assessments: leveraging available data to answer agency questions Catlin M, LaBarre D, Ebel E, Williams M, Golden N 3:50 PM W4-A.2 Food Safety and Inspection Service Exploring functional relationships among multiple infrastructure 3:50 PM W4-B.2 networks Caffeine in energy drinks: how safe is it? Chopade P, Chatterjee S Beyer L, Hixon M, Kerper L North Carolina A&T State University,Pacific Northwest National Consulting Company Laboratory

4:10 PM

4:10 PM

Stochastic epidemiological model of the risk of malware propagation in heterogeneous networks Alexeev A, Henshel D, Cains M, Sun Q Indiana University

3:50 PM

W4-B.4

Updating FDA/CFSAN’s guidance on ingredient safety assessment: the 4:30 PM W4-A.4 path forward for Redbook Optimum post-disruption restoration Fasano J for enhanced infrastructure resilience U.S. Food and Drug Administration under uncertainty 4:50 PM W4-B.5 Fang Y, Sansavini G Risk assessment principles for food ETH Zurich ingredient safety Pugh G The Coca-Cola Company

Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting

3:50 PM

3:50 PM W4-E.2 W4-D.2 Resilience of gantt project schedules

4:10 PM

4:10 PM W4-E.3 W4-D.3 SAFER - Sensing Analytics for

to emergent and future conditions Collier Z, Lambert J University of Virginia

4:10 PM W4-C.3 Challenges in risk-informed rule- Emerging Risks W4-B.3 Modeling cyber security risk contri- making at the U.S. Department of Pho Y, Suryanarayan S*, Cascone J

materials raise big questions Cohen J Gradient

4:30 PM

public sector projects and regulations management Moore M, Boardman A, Vining A Barton C, Bingman T Simon Fraser University, University of DuPont British Columbia

W4-C.2 Modelling the risk from railroad tank Modeling cybersecurity as a repeated car spills for use in policy making contest Homan A Alexeev A, Krutilla K* U.S. Department of Transportation Indiana University

W4-A.3 Nanoscale substances in food: small butions from human factors

Bridging sociotechnical networks for critical infrastructure resilience: South Korean case study Eisenberg D, Park J, Kim D, Seager T Arizona State University, Hongik University

44

3:30 PM W4-D.1 3:30 PM W4-E.1 W4-C.1 Pricing risk in benefit-cost analyses of A risk-based framework for issues

Henshel D, Cains M, Alexeev A, Hoffman B Indiana University and Army Research Laboratory

4:30 PM

W4-C.4

4:50 PM

W4-C.5

Establishing resilient programs: using a risk based approach for informing the distribution of investments in public safety and security science and technology Friesen S, Bayne I, Poursina S Government of Canada

Transportation Aiken D U.S. Department of Transportation

Deloitte & Touche, LLP

4:30 PM

W4-E.4

4:50 PM

W4-E.6

Can risk analysis improve with 4:30 PM W4-D.4 decision maker education and Evaluation of bicyclist morbidity and awareness? mortality mitigation with crash immi- Canjar H nent braking technologies 4:40 PM W4-E.5 Good D, Krutilla K The use of scenarios to improve Indiana University decision making through a better 4:50 PM W4-D.5 understanding of cognitive bias and How to regulate for ’black swan’ mental models within a corporate events? Capturing or illustrating the environment highly unlikely in a regulatory context Hall I Gungor A University of Northampton U.S. Coast Guard

Cyber risk: malicious email attacks at a large organization Sponsored by: Kuypers M The Economics and Benefits Analysis Stanford University Specialty Group

Risk based scheduling of safety performance audits – a regulatory approach to reviewing and influencing safety behaviours Wiersma R, Mangalam S Technical Standards and Safety Authority

Wednesday 3:30 PM – 5:10 PM

3:30 PM – 5:00 PM

3:30 PM – 5:10 PM

3:30 PM – 5:00 PM

3:30 PM – 5:10 PM

Nautilus 1

Nautilus 2

Nautilus 3

Nautilus 4

Nautilus 5

W4-F Health Risk Asessment and Decision Analysis

W4-G Dose-Response Modeling for Human Health Risk Assessment (II)

W4-H Risk and Resilience in Development

W4-I Public Engagement and Participatory Approaches to Research

W4-J Symposium: Vaccines and Risk: A Global Perspective on Lessons Learned 2

Chair: Amanda Boyd

Chair: Kimberly Thompson

Co-chairs: Yun Lu, Francois Eisinger

3:30 PM

W4-F.1

From evidence based to preference based medicine Eisinger F Paoli-Calmettes Institute Marseille, Aix Marseille Université, INSERM, France

3:50 PM

W4-F.2

Cleaning product ingredient safety initiative: development and application of an approach for high-throughput screening-level human health risk assessment for nearly 600 ingredients DeLeo P, Ciarlo M, Pacelli C, Greggs W, Williams E, Brooks B, Scott C, Wang Z American Cleaning Institute, EA Engineering, Science and Technology, Soleil Consulting, Baylor University

Chair: Jessica Kratchman

3:30 PM

W4-G.1 3:30 PM

3:50 PM

3:50 PM W4-H.2 W4-G.2 Public health co-benefits of climate 3:50 PM

4:10 PM

W4-G.3

Toxicity testing: are species and genders equally sensitive? Kratchman J, Wang B, Gray G George Washington University, School of Public Health and Health Services

Development of an air pollutant dose response model for asthma incidents specific to Philadelphia for triple bottom line modeling Weir M, Borine M The Ohio State University

A Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for PFDoDA in 4:10 PM W4-F.3 rats and humans Quantitative bias analysis for herpes Chimeddulam D, Wu K, Yu H zoster vaccine effectiveness study National Taiwan University in the medicare population ages 65 years and older 4:30 PM W4-G.4 Lu Y, Izurieta H, Wernecke M, Kelman Case studies for neurotoxic chemicals J, Wong S, Worrall C, Lash T, Fox M, Lynch M, Brown L, Chiger A Forshee R Abt Associates Food and Drug Administration, Acumen, Centers for Medicare & Medicaid, Emory University, Boston University

4:30 PM

W4-F.4

4:50 PM

W4-F.5

Supporting the prioritization of emerging animal health threats for the UK Department of Agriculture Montibeller G, Franco L Loughborough University Scientific criteria for the determination of endocrine-disrupting properties Anyshchenko A University of Copenhagen

Co-chairs: Alison Cullen, Luis Cifuentes

W4-H.1 3:30 PM

Resilient boulder: implementing the 100 resilient cities global network Guibert G City of Boulder, CO

W4-I.1 3:30 PM

W4-J.1

Scientists’ willingness to partake in Polio eradication and the role of public engagement as a function of subpopulations for risk management controversy and riskiness Duintjer Tebbens R, Thompson K, R Besley J, Yuan S, Dudo A Kid Risk, Inc. Michigan State University

3:50 PM W4-J.2 W4-I.2 Developing an international strategy

change mitigation in the Philippines’ Structured decision support for wastewater sector organic farmers: lowering barriers, clarifying trade-offs and linking risk Belova A, Mills D management strategy performance Abt Associates to farmer values. 4:10 PM W4-H.3 Bessette D, Wilson R, Beaudrie C, Is social capital an important Doohan D, Culman S component of disaster resilience? A The Ohio State University taxonomy clarifying inconsistency in 4:10 PM W4-I.3 empirical results Assessing a participatory approach to MacGillivray B risk communication: the case of lead Cardiff University exposure and inuit health 4:30 PM W4-H.4 Boyd A, Furgal C Policy implications of gender associ- Washington State University, Trent ated differences in risk attitudes and University perceptions among farmers in Mali 4:30 PM W4-I.4 and Tanzania Modeling the effectiveness of Cullen A, Anderson C, Biscaye P, outreach as a risk management tool Lawrence A, Sace R Evans School, University of Washington Wilson R, Zhang W, Irwin E, Aloysius N, Martin J 4:50 PM W4-H.5 The Ohio State University Addressing Sri Lanka’s public health crisis — employing a tiered investigation approach to pinpoint the risk factors associated with Chronic Kidney Disease of Unknown Etiology (CKDu) Redmon J, Womack D, Elledge M, Wanigasariya K, Wickremasinghe R, Levine K RTI International, University of Sri Jayewardenepura, and University of Kelaniya

for determining the immunization risk communication needs of immigrant populations Jardine C, Bouder F, Driedger S, Turner N, Gray L, Heywood A, Rath B University of Alberta

4:10 PM

W4-J.3

4:30 PM

W4-J.4

4:50 PM

W4-J.5

Refugee health — research and communication Rath B Vienna Vaccine Safety Initiative Will the world eradicate measles and rubella next? Thompson K Kid Risk, Inc.

The effects of audience knowledge and risk perception as moderators for risk communication about vaccine safety Yuan S, Besley J Michigan State University

Final Program

45

Author Index

A Aoyagi, M................................... P.132 Abaidoo, R................................. P.116 Abdou, K...................................... P.52 Abdukadirov, S.......................W1-D.1 Abdulla, A.......................P.28, T3-A.2 Abrahamsen, E......................W2-E.4 Abt, E......................................M3-G.4 Abualfaraj, N............................... P.75 Adenuga, D............................M3-G.2 Ahmed, W................................T2-B.3 Ahumada, W............................. P.115 Aiken, D..................................W4-D.3 Akai, K....................................... P.192 Alderson, D......W4-A.1, P.193, P.198 Alexeev, A..............................W4-C.1, W4-C.2, W4-C.3 Aloysius, N.............................. W4-I.4 Alves, E.......................................... P.1 Amponsah, S............................ P.116 Anderson, A.............................. P.136 Anderson, C............... P.154, W4-H.4 Anderson, K............................ W2-I.3 Anderson, M...........................T4-B.3 Anderson, R................................ P.32 Anderson, S............W1-B.2, W1-B.4 Andow, D.................................T3-B.4 Annika, A...................................T4-I.2 Anyamba, A............................M2-B.4 Anyshchenko, A..................... W4-F.5 Aoki, K....................................... P.192 Aps, R............................................ P.4 Apt, J........................................ T3-A.4 Aquino, G.................................T4-C.2 Arachy, H..................................... P.76 Arbuckle, J..............................T3-B.3 Ardalan, A.................................. P.175 Arguello, B.............................M2-A.5 Arimoto, C.............................. W1-F.4 Arimoto, C................................... P.18 Arnold, A....................................T4-I.1 Arnold, S.................................W2-G.1 Arvai, J.................................... M4-J.5

46

Arvai, JL.................................. W2-J.2 Asfaw, A..................................W2-D.5 Asher, D..................................W1-B.2 Aso, H..................................... M2-J.3 Aspinall, W.............................M4-D.1 Auld, H.....................................T2-B.1 Austin, L....................................T2-I.2 Aven, T......................M4-E.1, T3-E.4, W2-E.2, W3-E.2, W3-E.4 Azevedo, I...............................M3-D.1

B Balog, S..................................... P.181 Baucum, M............................... P.188 Benouar, D.............................. T4-A.2 Babcock, M.............................T3-B.2 Backus, A..................... P.133, W2-I.4 Baik, S....................................M4-A.3 Baker, M................................ W1-H.3 Bamber, A..............................M4-G.1 Banan, Z.................................M4-G.3 Baroud, H................................ T2-A.3 Barrett, A................................W2-C.1 Barros, E..................................... P.10 Barry, J...................................... P.162 Bartelt-Hunt, S......................W2-B.1 Bartlett, R.................................. P.128 Barton, C................................W4-E.1 Barton, M................................ W2-I.3 Bates, A....................................... P.16 Bates, M...................................T3-F.4 Baum, S..................................W2-C.1 Bayne, I...................................W4-C.4 Beaudrie, C..............................T3-F.2 Beaudrie, C............................. W4-I.2 Beaudry, M.................................... P.2 Beaulieu, S...............T4-B.3, W3-B.1 Becker, R.....T4-G.5, W2-F.1, W2-F.3 Becker, S................................... P.166 Behrendt, A............................M4-C.3 Belitz, K..................................M4-G.5 Bellamy, M.................................. P.93 Bellinger, D............................M4-D.3

Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting

Belova, A..................T3-G.4, W4-H.2 Belzer, R.................................M3-G.3 Bennett, N................................T4-J.5 Bergion, V.................................... P.57 Berry, M....................................... P.21 Besley, J....... M3-I.1, W4-I.1, W4-J.5 Bessette, D............................. W4-I.2 Betz, M................................... M3-J.7 Bevington, C............................T4-G.2 Beyer, L..................................W4-B.2 Bhavelaar, A...........................M4-D.1 Bhojani, F.................................. P.106 Bibby, K...................................W1-B.1 Bichteler, A.............................W3-G.3 Bier, D..................................... M3-F.1 Bier, V.....................................M4-C.1 Bingman, T.............................W4-E.1 Biscaye, P.............................. W4-H.4 Bjørnsen, K............................W3-E.4 Black, P....................................... P.44 Blake, U..................................... P.182 Blanton, B..............................W3-A.4 Blanton, C..............................W3-A.4 Blom, L........................................ P.58 Blust-Volpato, S............................ P.2 Blythe, J..................................W1-C.4 Boardman, A..........................W4-D.1 Bogen, K.................................W1-G.2 Böhm, G.......................T4-I.1, T4-1.3 Bolger, P.................................M4-D.3 Bolus, K..................... P.40, P.84, P.93 Bonneck, S.................................. P.12 Borchers, N............................T3-D.3 Borges, M.................................... P.10 Borine, M................................W4-G.2 Borsuk, M.................................... P.35 Bosompem, K........................W2-B.2 Bostrom, A...............................T2-J.3 Bouder, F...............................W1-H.4, W1-J.2, W4-J.2 Boudet, H.................................T3-J.3 Boutette, P.................................... P.2 Boyd, A......................... M3-I.4, P.142, P.143, P.173, W4-I.3

Bradley, D....... P.169, T2-C.2, T2-C.3 Bradley, L...............................M4-G.2 Brame, J..................................T3-C.1 Brand, K..................................T3-D.2 Brannon, M..............................T4-F.3 Brendecke, J..........................W4-A.1 Brevett, C................................T2-C.1 Brewer, V.................................T4-D.3 Brigantic, R............................M3-E.3 Brokaw, W.............................. M2-F.2 Brondum, M................................ P.39 Bronfman, N........................... T4-E.1 Brooks, B................................ W4-F.2 Brophy, J.................................W1-D.3 Brossard, D............. M3-I.3, M3-J.11 Brown, L................... T3-G.3, W4-G.4 Brown, Z..................................T3-H.2 Brügger, A.............................. M4-J.1 Bruine De Bruine, W...............T2-J.4 Bruss, B.................................. T3-A.3 Bryce, C.................................. W1-F.1 Buchanan, R...............M2-B.3, P.102 Budgen, D................................T3-J.3 Bui-Klimke, T.........................W1-B.2 Burch, D...................................... P.94 Burdett, C...............................M2-B.4 Burgoon, L..............................T3-G.2 Burnett, R................................T3-G.4 Burns, W................................W1-C.1 Burrack, H..............................T3-H.2 Busquet, F................................. P.185 Butler, J.................................. M2-J.9 Bynum, M...............................M2-A.5

C Canjar, H.................................W4-E.4 Cabanes, P.................................. P.87 Cains, M................................M4-B.2, W4-C.1, W4-C.3 Caldwell, J.............................. W2-F.2 Camp, J................................... T4-A.5 Campbell, H............................T4-D.5 Campbell-Arvai, V...................T2-J.2

Campino-Ferrada, E..............T3-D.2 Candido, E..............................W2-G.4 Cano, J......................................... P.30 Cantor, R.................................T4-D.1 Cao, S.......................................T2-F.4 Capstick, S............................. M4-J.3 Carless, T......................M4-A.4, P.68 Carr, E.....................................W2-E.5 Carrington, C.........................M4-D.3 Caruzzo, A..............................W1-A.2 Cascone, J..............................W4-E.3 Casson, L...............................W1-B.1 Castellino, A................................ P.16 Catlin, M.........M3-B.2, P.22, W4-B.1 Chabrelie, A................................ P.45 Chada, K..................... P.160, W1-B.4 Chakalian P............................... P.202 Chakrabarti, K.......................... P.173 Chan, K.....................................T4-J.5 Chan, W.............................. P.46, P.51 Chang, B.................................... P.201 Channel, S................................... P.49 Chao, K........................................ P.77 Chapman, B............................T2-B.4 Charles, A...............................M3-B.3 Chatterjee, S........... M3-E.3, W4-A.2 Chaudhry, R............................ W1-I.2 Cheesebrough, T...................M3-E.2 Chen, B.......................................... P.6 Chen, C........................................ P.78 Chen, K...................................... P.107 Chen, L............................P.61, T3-J.2 Chen, L....................................T2-G.1 Chen, M....................................... P.78 Chen, M..................................... P.194 Chen, P............................... P.46, P.51 Chen, Q...................................W3-G.2 Chen, Y....................M2-B.1, W3-B.2 Chen, Y........................................ P.79 Chen, Y...................................... P.201 Chen, Z...................................M3-E.1 Chen Parker, C.......................T4-D.3 Chiang, S................................... P.201 Chiger, A.................................W4-G.4

Author Index Chimeddulam, D...................W4-G.3 Chiu, H................................... W2-H.4 Chmura, T.............................. W1-F.1 Chopade, P................ T4-F.4, W4-A.2 Chosewood, K......................... M4-I.1 Chou, Y............................... P.46, P.51 Chu, C.......................................... P.51 Chu, Y........................................... P.51 Chuang, Y.......................... P.107, P.3, P.80, P.85, P.90 Chung, J............................... M3-J.11 Ciarlo, M................................. W4-F.2 Cifuentes, L..............M3-H.3, T3-D.3 Cisternas, P............................ T4-E.1 Clarke, C...................................T3-J.3 Class, H.................................. W3-J.3 Clausen, J................................... P.23 Clausen, N.............................M4-E.3 Cliff, J......................................M4-D.3 Clifford, M...............................M4-A.1 Clougherty, J........................... M4-I.4 Cogger, N................................ T4-E.2 Cohen, I................................... M2-I.1 Cohen, J.................................W4-B.3 Collier, T...................................... P.55 Collier, Z.................................W4-E.2 Collins, E................................ M3-J.9 Collins, M.................................T4-J.1 Comer, N.................................T2-B.1 Conklin, D................................T2-G.1 Connelly, E............................. M2-J.8 Cook, G.................................... T4-E.3 Cooke, R.................................M4-D.1 Cooley, M................................M2-B.4 Copeland, L..............................T4-J.1 Copes, R.................................W2-G.4 Corner, A.......................T4-I.1, T4-I.4 Cowan-Ellsberry, C................T4-G.4 Cox, J.............. P.169, T2-C.1, T2-C.3 Cox, T........................M2-E.4, W3-F.3 Cox, T...................................... W2-F.1 Critch, A..................................W2-C.4 Crosman, K..............................T2-J.3 Cross, P...................................T4-D.1

Crowther, K............... T4-F.4, W3-A.1 Crump, K................................... P.170 Cueto Alonso, A.......................... P.66 Cui, J.......... M2-C.2, M3-J.8, W1-C.2 Cullen, A..................... W4-H.4, P.183 Culman, S............................... W4-I.2 Cunningham, T.........................T3-I.3

D Daley, J.................................... T4-E.5 Danquah, E............................W2-B.2 Danyluk, M.............................M3-B.4 Davidson, R............. W3-A.3, W3-A.4 Davis, A...................................M4-A.3 DeDevleesschauwer, B.........M4-D.1 DeGarmo, D........................... W2-J.1 DeGuidici, P................................ P.87 DeLaYncera, N.......................... P.104 DeLeo, P................................. W4-F.2 DeMarcellis-Warin, N............. P.133, W2-I.4 DeMarini, D............................ W2-F.2 Delborne, J.............................T4-H.1 Demski, C.............................. M4-J.3, T3-J.1, W1-J.1 Demuth, J............................... W2-I.3 Dennis, S................................W3-B.2 Deparday, V............................... P.181 Dessai, S..................................T2-J.4 Deubert, C............................... M2-I.1 DeVilbiss, E............................... P.194 Devleesschauwer, B..............M4-D.3 Diamond, S.............................T3-C.1 Dickinson, D........................... M2-J.5 Dillon-Merrill, R....................M2-C.1 Dionisio, K...............................T4-G.1 Disney, W................................M3-B.2 Dixon, G....................................T2-J.1 Dodge, D........................................ P.8 Dolislager, F............. P.40, P.84, P.89, P.93, W3-I.4 Donahue, D..............................T4-F.5 Doohan, D............................... W4-I.2

Dotson, G................................. M4-I.2 Dourson, M............................M2-G.1 Downs, T.................................W2-E.5 Dreyer, M................................W2-E.1 Driedger, S.............. W1-H.2, W4-J.2 Drummond, C............................. P.27 Druwe, I...................................T3-G.2 Du, J......................................... M3-I.2 Dubè, E.................................. W1-H.2 Dudo, A.................................... W4-I.1 Dudzina, T................ M3-G.2, T4-G.3 Duintjer Tebbens, R.............. W4-J.1 Duret, S..................... T4-B.4, T4-B.5 Duverna, R.................................. P.22 Dzidzienyo, D.........................W2-B.2

E Elhadj, F.................................. T4-A.2 Ebel, E....................................M3-B.2 Ebel, E....................................W4-B.1 Ebisudani, M............................. P.161 Ede, J.......................................T3-C.4 Ehdaa, O...................................... P.52 Eisenberg, D.........................W4-A.3, P.193, P.197, P.198 Eisinger, F.............................. W4-F.1 Eleblu, J..................................W2-B.2 Elledge, M............................. W4-H.5 Elsensohn, J...........................T3-H.2 Elwell, H.................................. T4-E.5 Emanuel, R............................ M2-J.7 Enders, C..................................T4-J.3 Eosco, G.................................... P.190 Estrin, A...................................T4-D.3 Etienne, L.................................... P.71 Evans, N....................................T2-I.2 Evans, S...................................T4-H.2 Evensen, D.................T3-J.1, T4-J.2, W1-J.1, W1-J.2 Evensen, D...............................T3-J.3 Ezendam, J............................M4-D.3

F

G

Fair, P......................................M4-B.2 Fanaselle, W.........................M2-B.4, T4-B.4, T4-B.5 Fang, Y....................................W4-A.4 Farber, H................................... P.125 Fasano, J................................W4-B.4 Fehrenbacher, M....................T4-G.2 Feindt, P................................. M4-J.4 Ferreira, C..............................W2-A.4 Ferreira, C..............................W2-A.5 Ferson, S.......................... P.163, P.99 Fiebelkorn, S............................. P.186 Finkel, A......................M2-I.3, T4-D.4 Fischbeck, P.................M4-A.4, P.68 Fischhoff, B................................. P.27 Flage, R..................................W3-E.1 Flores, J..................................M4-G.1 Florin, M....................... M4-H.1, P.24 Foran, C....................................... P.38 Ford, M.................................... T3-A.2 Foreman, J.............................M3-G.2 Foreman, J.............................W1-E.1 Forouzanfar, M.......................M4-D.5 Forshee, R.............................. W4-F.3 Forshee, R...............W1-B.2, W1-B.4 Foster, D...................................... P.35 Fournier, R.............................. T4-E.3 Fox, M..................................... W4-F.3 Fox-Lent, C............................M4-H.1 Frame, A...................................... P.89 Francis, R................ M3-H.2, W3-E.3 Franco, L..................M2-C.4, W4-F.4 Frankel, M..............................W2-C.2 Franzèn, F................................... P.31 Fred Boelter, F..........................T2-I.4 Fredrickson, M.......................... P.143 Friesen, S...............................W4-C.4 Fritz, J..................................... W2-F.2 Fu, Z........................................W2-A.5 Fukushima, S.............................. P.63 Furgal, C..........M3-I.4, P.143, W4-I.3 Furtney, M.............................. W1-J.4

Gaines, L..................................... P.89 Galloway, L......................... P.89, P.93 Gamalo, M..............................M3-G.4 Gamo, M...................................... P.63 Ganin, A....................................T4-F.2 Ganin, A.......................... P.193, P.198 Garber, K..................................... P.53 Gardezi, M...............................T3-B.3 Garrahan, K...........................W1-G.3 Garzon, J................................W2-A.5 Gaspar, R................................ M3-J.9 Gauthier, A.................................. P.82 Gernand, J.............................M4-G.3, T4-C.3, T4-C.5 Gerst, M..................................M3-D.2 Gibb, H....................................M4-D.3 Gibbons, C.............................. W2-F.2 Gibbs, C....................................... P.33 Gillespie-Marthaler, L........... M2-J.4 Gilmore, E..............................M3-D.3 Glasgow, G............................. W3-F.2 Goble, R................... M3-H.1, W2-E.5 Goerlandt, F..................... P.4, T3-E.1 Goidel, K................................. M3-J.3 Golden, N...............................W4-B.1 Goldman, D............................M4-D.4 Gomez Quiroga, G...................... P.23 Gondle, R..................................T2-F.3 González-Ortega, J.................... P.30 Good, D...................................W4-D.4 Gooding, R................................ P.169, T2-C.2, T2-C.3 Goodman, T............................... P.200 Gosen, D.................................... P.108 Goto, S.................................... W2-J.2 Gould, F...................................T3-H.1 Gray, G.......W1-G.1, W3-F.4, W4-G.1 Gray, L...................... W1-H.3, W4-J.2 Greco, S.................... T3-G.4, W2-G.4 Greenberg, J......................... W1-H.2 Greene, C.................................... P.74 Greggs, W..................T4-G.4, W4-F.2

Final Program

47

Author Index Gregori, L...............................W1-B.2 Griffin, W...................................... P.68 Gronlund C................................ P.202 Grossmann, I..........................T3-B.2 Guibert, G.............................. W4-H.1 Guidotti, T......................T2-I.1, T2-I.3 Guikema, S...................M2-A.3, P.11, T3-A.1, T3-A.3, W2-A.1, W2-A.2, W3-E.1 Guiseppi-Elie, A......................T4-G.1 Guney, S................................ M3-J.12 Gungor, A................................W4-D.5 Guo, M....................................W1-B.3 Guo, Y............................................. P.6 Gurian, P........................ P.75, T4-E.5 Gutfraind, A............................M4-C.1 Gutièrrez, VV.................. P.114, P.115 Guyton, K................................ W2-F.2 Gyakum, J..............................W1-A.2

H Höglund, A.................................... P.4 Hall, I......................................W4-E.5 Haas, C.....................T2-B.3, W1-B.1 Hald, T....................................M4-D.1 Hall, F......................................T4-G.2 Hall, J .......... M3-A.1, T2-A.2, T2-A.4 Hall, J.....................................M3-A.3 Hallman, W............................ W2-J.3 Hamada, N................................ P.148 Hamilton, K.............................T2-B.3 Hamilton, M.............................. P.166 Hamm, J.................................... P.125 Hammitt, J...............T3-D.1, W2-D.4 Hancock, G.................................. P.41 Haney, J........................... P.112, P.48, P.180, W3-G.1 Hanus, N..................................T3-J.4 Harris, M................................W3-G.3 Harrison D..............................T3-C.1 Hart, P.........................T2-J.2, T3-J.3 Harthorn, B................T4-J.1, T4-J.3, T4-J.4

48

Hartley, K............................... W2-H.2 Hartnett, E................T2-B.1, W3-B.2 Hartung, T................................. P.185 Hassellöv, I.................................. P.34 Hatami, P.................................... P.33 Hauser, K.................................T2-C.3 Hawkins, B...................P.169, T2-C.3 Hayes, K..................................T3-H.4 He, M........................................... P.56 Hegre, H.................................M3-D.3 Heng, YK.................................M2-H.1 Henning, C.................................. P.94 Henry, S...................................T2-G.4 Henshel, D.............M4-B.2, W4-C.1, W4-C.3 Heywood, A............................ W4-J.2 Higashino, H............................... P.81 Hill, T...................................... W1-F.3 Hiromatsu, T............................... P.20 Hirose, A............................ P.9, P.199 Hixon, M.................................W4-B.2 Hmielowshi, J.............. P.173, T2-J.1 Ho, S.........................................T3-J.2 Ho, W........................... P.46, P.51, P.6 Hoang, M................................W1-G.1 Hodges, L...............................W2-B.1 Hoffman, B.............................W4-C.3 Hoffmann, S..............P. 185, M4-D.1, T3-D.1, W2-D.2 Holley, J..................................... P.122 Holt, D.................................... W1-H.4 Homan, A...............................W4-D.2 Honda, K...................................... P.63 Honeycutt, M.................... P.48, P.180 Hong, J...................................W1-D.3 Hosack, G................................T3-H.4 Howard, B..............................W2-G.1 Howard, J................................ M2-I.4 Howard, P........................ P.152, P.18, T2-C.4, W1-F.4 Hristozov, D.............. T4-C.1, W2-G.3 Hsing, H....................................... P.80 Hsiung, A..................................... P.78 Hu, X........................................ T-2A.4

Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting

Huang, C....................................... P.6 Huang, J...................... M2-F.1, P.120 Huang, P..................................... P.78 Huang, S.................................... P.129 Huang, S........................... P.79, P.137 Huang, T...................................... P.98 Huang, Y.......P.160, W1-B.2, W1-B.4 Hudson, D............................... T4-E.4 Hunke, J.................................... P.166

I Igo, M.......................................T4-B.2 Igusa, T...................................W2-A.5 Ikarashi, Y.................................. P.199 Ikeda, S.................................... W3-I.2 Inoue, K....................................... P.81 Irwin, E.................................... W4-I.4 Isaacs, K..................................T4-G.1 Ito, S........................................ M2-J.3 Ivarsson, M.................................. P.58 Izurieta, H............................... W4-F.3

J Jacquet, J...................T3-B.1, T3-J.3 Janickova, M............................... P.19 Jardine, C................... T3-I.2, W4-J.2 Jaspers, I.................................T2-G.2 Jaspersen, J..........................M2-C.3 Jaykus, L.................................T4-B.3 Jensen, A................................. T3-E.4 Jessup, A................................W1-D.4 Joe, P......................................W1-A.2 Johansson, J..........................M3-A.2 Johansson, P.........................W1-A.3 John, R.................... M2-C.2, M4-C.2 John, R.................... M2-C.5, W1-C.4 John, R........................... P.171, P.188 John, R.................. M3-J.12, M3-J.7, M3-J.8, W1-C.2, W1-C.3 Johnson, B..................P.139, T4-D.4, W2-J.1 Johnston, D........................... W1-H.3

Jon, I.......................................... P.129 Jones, K.......................M2-A.2, P.196 Jones, L..................................... P.180 Jones, M.................................W2-B.3 Joo, J......................................... P.173 Jore, S..........................M2-E.2, P.167 Jovanovic, A.................. P.64, W3-J.1 Junod, A..................................T3-B.1

K Kärrman, E................................. P.58 Kause, J..................................W3-D.4 Kabir, E........................................ P.11 Kalinina, E................................. P.196 Kalmes, R......................M3-G.1, P.82 Kaplan, A................................ W2-F.1 Kaplan-Hallam, M...................T4-J.5 Karlfeldt Fedje, K........................ P.62 Karns, S..................................W1-D.3 Kashuba, R.............................M4-B.3 Kato, E....................................... P.109 Kato, H........................................... P.9 Kato, T.................................... M2-J.3 Kause, J....................................... P.22 Kavicky, J................................M4-A.1 Kavlock, R.............................. W2-F.2 Kawamoto, A............................. P.109 Kawasaki (Aiba), R...................... P.20 Keese, P.................................W2-B.2 Keller, C................................... W2-I.2 Kelly, R.....................................T4-B.3 Kelly, S....................................M3-A.3 Kelman, J............................... W4-F.3 Kennedy, A..............................T3-C.1 Kenney, M...............................M3-D.2 Keranen, K............................. W1-J.4 Kerper, L.................................W4-B.2 Khan, K...................................... P.117 Kihara, T.................................... P.109 Kim, B........................................ P.184 Kim, D.....................................W4-A.3 Kim, J.....................................W2-G.4 Kingsbury, T...........................W2-G.1

Kipperman, F......................... W1-F.3 Kishimoto, A...........................M2-H.2 Kishore, R.................................... P.22 Kissinger, A............................ W3-J.3 Kitsak, M........... T4-F.2, P.193, P.198 Kittredge, D................................. P.35 Klima, K....................................T2-J.4 Klimek, P..................................... P.64 Klinke, A.................................M4-E.2 Knoblauch, T.......................... W1-J.3 Knopf, S.................................. W3-J.3 Kobayashi, N............................. P.199 Koch, F.................................... T4-E.3 Kojima, N.................................. P.161 Kokotovich, A.................P.95, T3-B.4 Konrad, W.............................. W3-J.3 Kopeck, K................................T2-B.2 Korchevskiy, A........................... P.105 Koriyama, K........................... M2-J.3 Kovacs, D...................................T2-I.2 Kowalcyk, B............................M2-B.1 Kowalcyk, B............................M3-B.1 Kratchman, J.........................W4-G.1 Krewski, D................... M3-F.4, P.140 Kruse, J..................................W3-A.3 Krutilla, K................W4-C.2, W4-D.4 Kudo, T...................................... P.192 Kuempel, E.............................T3-C.3 Kuiken, T.................................T4-H.3 Kunreuther, H........................ M3-J.3 Kurniawan, J..........................M3-H.4 Kusumastuti, S.......W1-C.3, W1-C.4 Kuypers, M.............................W4-C.5 Kuzma, J................... T3-H.2, T4-H.5

L Lâng, L......................................... P.58 Lange, S.................................... P.180 LaBarre, D................................. P.22, M3-B.2, W4-B.1 LaVictoire, P...........................W2-C.4 Lackey, T..................................T3-C.1 Laituri, M................................... P.119

Author Index Lambert, J...............M2-E.1, M2-J.8, T4-F.3, W4-E.2 Lambertini, E........................M3-B.1, P.102, P.103 Landis, W...............................M4-B.2 Landis, W...............................W2-B.4 Landquist, H............................... P.34 Lane, C...................................... P.160 Lange, S...................................... P.48 Larez, J........................................ P.14 Larkin, S................................. M4-F.4 Larsen, L................................... P.202 Larson, D................................... P.159 Lash, T.................................... W4-F.3 Lasher, A.................................T4-D.3 Lathrop, J...............................W2-C.3 Lauretto, M............................... P.189 Lavaty, R.................................W1-D.3 Lawrence, A.......................... W4-H.4 Lee, T......................................... P.150 Lefevre, C.................................T2-J.4 Lei, X........................................ T2-A.1 Leitschuh, C............................T3-H.3 Lemyre, L........................... P.140, P.2 Lensu, M....................................... P.4 Lentz, T.................................... M4-I.3 Leong, X....................................T3-J.2 Leverett, E..............................M3-A.3 Levine, J..................................T4-D.3 Levine, K................................ W4-H.5 Lew, N.....................................W1-D.3 Lewandowski, T.............. M4-F.2, P.8 Lewis, L....................................... P.21 Lewis, R....................................... P.82 Lewis, R..................................M3-G.3 Li, B.........................................M4-A.2 Li, J............................................ P.179 Li, W........................................... P.145 Li, X.........................................W2-B.1 Li, Y................................... P.178, P.61 Liberman, K...........................W2-A.1 Liggans, G................. T4-B.4, T4-B.5 Ligmann-Zielinska, A............ M3-I.2 Lin, K.......................................W4-A.1

Lin, M........................................... P.46 Lin, N.................. M3-J.3, P.150, P.36 Lin, Y............................................ P.46 Lindekilde, L............ M3-J.4, M3-J.5 Lindell, M.................................. P.129 Lindhe, A.................. P.34, P.57, P.58, W1-A.3 Lindkvist, J.................................. P.58 Lindsay, M................................... P.35 Linkov, I.................. M2-J.10, M2-J.8, M4-F.4, M4-H.1, P.24, P.39, P.193, P.198 T3-B.5, T3-F.4, T4-F.2, W3-J.1 Lipscomb, J............................W1-G.3 Liu, X.......................................... P.200 Livingston, O..........................M3-E.2 Lobel, O................................... M2-I.5 Lofstedt, R................W1-E.2, W1-J.2 Logan, T..................................W2-A.1 Lokhandwala, M......................... P.70 Long, G.....................................T3-F.2 Looi, J.......................................T3-J.2 Lopez, E..................................... P.104 Lorenzo, A................................. P.104 Lu, B........................................ T4-E.3 Lu, E............................................. P.83 Lu, H.................P.126, P.153, W1-J.4 Lu, Y........................................ W4-F.3 Lu, Z........................................M4-C.1 Lujan, H...................................T4-C.2 Luk, S........................................... P.43 Lundberg, R.............................. P.164 Lyle, T...........................T3-F.1, T3-F.2 Lynch, M................... T3-G.3, W4-G.4 Lyon, S....................................... P.166

M Ma, Y.........................................T2-J.1 MacDonald, C....................... W1-H.3 MacDonald, D........................M3-E.3 MacDonald Gibson, J................ P.69, T3-D.4, W3-G.4

MacFarlane, A....................... M3-F.2 MacGillivray, B...................... W4-H.3 MacIntyre, E...........................W2-G.4 MacKenzie, C............M4-C.4, T2-A.1 Machimura, T........................... P.161 Mackie, B.............................. W1-H.3 Mackoul, CV............................T4-D.1 Madasseri Payyappalli, V......M4-C.3 Maeda, Y...................................... P.42 Maertens, A............................... P.185 Magliocca, N..........................W2-A.3 Maier, A..................................... P.110 Makino, R.................................. P.192 Malladi, S...............................M4-G.4 Malloy, T...................M4-F.1, M4-H.4 Manal, M..................................... P.52 Mangalam, S.......... P.14, P.158, P.16, W4-E.6 Manibusan, M........................ W2-F.3 Manning, K......................... P.40, P.84 Mansfield, T................................ P.69 Marasteanu, I.........................W3-D.2 Marchant, G............M4-H.3, W2-H.1 Marcomini, A............ T4-C.1, W2-G.3 Markon, A................................T4-D.3 Markovic, N................................. P.64 Marquart-Pyatt, S.................. M3-I.2 Martin, J.................................. W4-I.4 Marynissen, H........................ M3-J.6 Mason, A................................W2-G.1 Massarani, L........................ M3-J.11 Matsil, M.................................. T4-E.5 Matsumoto, M.............................. P.9 Matsuo, M..............................M2-H.3 Mattuck, R................................... P.73 Mayeda, A....................... P.142, P.173 Mayfield, D.................................. P.54 Maynard, A........................... M3-J.11 Mayo, M................................... W3-I.2 Mays, C......................................T4-I.1 McCant, D....................... P.48, P.180 McClellan, R............................. P.170 McComas, K............... P.126, W1-J.4 McCullough, S...................... W2-H.3

McDaniels, T.......................... W3-J.2 McEgan, R..............................M2-B.2 McLaughlin, C.......................W2-D.3 McMullin, T............................M4-G.1 Melby, N...................................T3-C.1 Melick, K................................W2-A.5 Menzie, C.................M4-B.2, M4-B.3 Merad, M................. W2-E.2, W3-B.3 Meredith, C............................... P.186 Meschke, J..............................T4-B.1 Micallef, S...............................M2-B.2 Milburn, L.................................. P.145 Miller, S................................... T4-E.5 Mills, D.................................. W4-H.2 Mills, T......................................T3-F.2 Minor, T...................................W3-D.3 Miranda, R....................P.100, T4-B.2 Mishra, A................................M2-B.3 Mitchell, J.............. P.33, P.45, T4-F.5 Mlakar, J.................................M4-G.4 Mohagheghi, A.......................... P.196 Mokhtari, A............... M2-B.1, T4-B.3 Mokry, M.................................... P.119 Monast, J................................M3-D.4 Monge, F................................ M4-J.1 Montalto, F.............................. T4-E.5 Montibeller, G..........M2-C.3, W4-F.4 Moody, J.....................................T2-I.2 Moody, J....................................... P.15 Moore, M................................W4-D.1 Moore, N................................ W1-F.1 Morgan, A.................................. P.162 Morgan, M.................M4-A.3, T3-A.2 Morrison, A............................M4-B.3 Morrow, W................................... P.72 Morss, R.................................. W2-I.3 Morton, A................................. W3-I.4 Moser, R..................................T3-C.1 Mraz, A...................................... P.101 Msibi, S........................................ P.85 Muòoz, F.........................P.96, T4-A.3 Mumpower, J.............................. P.43 Muniz Ortiz, J.............................. P.22 Muramatsu, G............................. P.42

Murayama, T................................. P.5 Murphy, S................................ T3-A.4 Murray, B................................M3-D.4 Muth, M..................................W1-D.3

N Naito, W....................................... P.86 Nagai, Y..................................M2-H.4 Nardocci, A............P.92, P.155, P.189 Nateghi, R........M2-A.4, P.70, T3-A.3 Naufal, Z.................................... P.182 Nejadhashemi, A........................ P.33 Nelson, K................................ M2-J.4 Neubauer, N..........................W2-G.3 Ngo, C..................................... M4-J.4 Nguyen, K..............M2-C.2, M3-J.12, P.171 Nichols, R...............................W2-A.1 Nichols, T...............................W1-G.3 Nicol, A................................... M2-F.2 Niles, M.................................. M4-J.2 Noack, V................................. W3-J.3 Nolan, N..................................T4-D.3 Norberg, T..............................W1-A.3 Norby, B....................................... P.45 Norrman, J............... P.31, P.32, P.62 Nozick, L...............................M2-A.2, W3-A.3, W3-A.4 Nsubuga, J..............................T4-D.3

O O’Neill, P................................ M2-J.6 O’Reilly, M..................................T3-I.1 OConnor, R.............................W1-E.3 OMeara, K..............................W2-A.1 OMeara, K..............................W2-A.4 Ocampo, F............................... T4-A.3 Ocampo Pantoja, F..................... P.96 Odame, E................................... P.178 Ohkubo, C.................................. P.118 Oki, H........................................... P.50 Olsen, O..................................... P.168

Final Program

49

Author Index Olson, M...................................... P.75 Olson, M......................... P.134, P.146 Orwig, D....................................... P.35 Oryang, D................M2-B.1, M2-B.4 Osborn, D.................................. P.196 Oughton, E.............................M3-A.3 Owusu-Ansah, E....................... P.116 Oye, K.......................................T4-H.4

P Palma-Oliveira, J....................T3-B.5 Pacelli, C................................ W4-F.2 Padgett, P.................................. P.145 Pagsuyoin, S...............T2-F.2, T2-F.3 Pala, A....................................W3-A.2 Palen, L................................... W2-I.3 Palmer, M................................T4-H.2 Palmquist, K..........................M4-B.3 Pan, S............................................ P.6 Pana-Cryan, R.......................W2-D.1 Pang, C..................... T4-C.1, W2-G.3 Pang, H....................M2-B.2, M2-B.3 Pang, N.....................................T3-J.2 Panger, M...............................M4-B.1 Pant, R.....................M3-A.1, M3-A.3, M3-A.4, T-2A.4, T2-A.2 Pantin-Jackwood, M.............M4-G.4 Paoli, G...................................W3-B.2 Papafragkou, E......... T4-B.4, T4-B.5 Park, J....................................W4-A.3 Parks, J..................................... P.196 Parker, D.................. M3-J.4, M3-J.5 Parrett, M...............................W3-D.3 Partridge, T.................T4-J.3, T4-J.4 Paton, D................................. W1-H.3 Patrick, V................................... P.175 Payre, C....................................... P.87 Pearce, J.................. M3-J.4, M3-J.5 Pearson, A................................... P.26 Pearson, P................................. P.124 Peck, C........................................ P.53 Peckham, J............................W1-D.3 Peek, L....................................... P.119

50

Pelot, R........................................ P.71 Perkins, C...............................M3-E.3 Perona, R.................................... P.44 Petit, F..................... M2-J.5, M2-J.9, M4-A.1, P.21 Phillips, J................................ M2-J.5 Phillips, K................................T4-G.1 Phillips, T.................................. P.180 Pho, Y......................................W4-E.3 Pidgeon, N..................T3-J.1, T4-I.4, T4-J.3, T4-J.4, W1-J.1 Pidgeon, N............................ M4-J.3, P.124, T4-I.1 Pierce, A........................ P.41, W1-F.3 Pierre, B.................................M2-A.5 Pieters, S................................ M3-J.6 Pinheiro, E.......................... P.156, P.7 Pinsent, C........................... P.140, P.2 Pintar, K...................................T2-B.4 Piotrowski, A............................... P.87 Pizzol, L...................................T4-C.1 Plunkett, L.............................. W2-F.1 Poda, AR..................................T3-C.1 Ponnambalam, K....................T2-F.4 Poortinga, W.................T4-I.1, T4-I.4 Poortvliet, P........................... M4-J.4 Popken, D............................... W2-F.1 Portante, E.............................M4-A.1 Portier, C................................ W2-F.2 Posin, L........................................ P.41 Pouillot, R..............................M3-G.4, T4-B.4, T4-B.5, W3-B.2 Pourakbar, M.........................M4-C.5 Poursina, S.............................W4-C.4 Powell, M................................M4-B.5 Powers, D................................T2-C.4 Pradhan, K.............M2-B.2, M2-B.3, P.102, P.103, W1-B.3 Price, P....................................T4-G.1 Prieto Recarey, R........................ P.66 Pugh, G...................................W4-B.5

Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting

Q Qian, H...................... M3-G.2, T4-G.3 Qu, Y........................................... P.102 Quintero, F.................................. P.64

R Raimi, K....................................T2-J.2 Rak, A...........................P.162, T3-C.2 Ram, B....................................M4-E.3 Ramchandran, V........T4-C.3, T4-C.5 Rani, S....................................... P.103 Rao, N.......................................... P.29 Rappaport, K..........................W2-B.3 Rath, B.................................... W4-J.2 Rath, B..................... W1-H.1, W4-J.3 Ravindran, K............................... P.14 Razzolini, M............................... P.189 Redinger, C................. T3-I.4, W1-I.1, W1-I.5 Redmon, J............................. W4-H.5 Reid, D......................................... P.14 Reilly, A...................................W2-A.2 Reilly, A...................................M2-A.3 Renee, K...................................... P.88 Renn, O...... M4-E.4, W2-E.1, W3-J.1 Restrepo, B............................W3-D.1 Rice, G..................................... M4-I.5 Richter, B................................... P.169 Rickard, L....................... P.121, P.123 RìosInsua, D................................ P.30 Ritchie, R................................M2-C.4 Rivers, L.............. M3-I.2, P.127, P.33 Robinson, L............................W2-D.4 Rodriguez, C............ M3-G.2, T4-G.3 Røed, W..................................M2-E.3 Rogers, M................. M3-J.4, M3-J.5 Roncancio, D............................. P.155 Rosèn, L................... P.31, P.32, P.34, P.58, P.62, P.65 Rosèn, R...................................... P.57 Rose, A.....................M3-E.1, M3-E.4 Rose, J......................................T4-F.5

Rose, K.................... M3-I.3, M3-J.11 Rosen, L.................................W1-A.3 Rosenstein, A.............................. P.55 Rosoff, F.................................W1-C.3 Rosoff, H.................................M2-C.2 Rosoff, H................M3-J.12, W1-C.2, W1-C.4, P.188 Rossmeisl, C.................M4-B.1, P.53 Roth, R..................................... W2-I.1 Roy, K........................................T4-F.4 Royal, A...................................... P.176 Røyksund, M..........................W2-E.3 Rui, N........................................T3-F.3 Rusyn, I................................... W2-F.2 Ruthman, T............................W3-B.2 Ruzante, J..............................M3-B.1 Rycroft, T................................W1-B.1 Ryser, E...................................M3-B.3 Ryti, R.....................................M4-B.4 Ryti, RT........................................ P.44 Rytkönen, J................................... P.4

S Sanaa, M................................W3-B.4 Saburi, T.................................... P.109 Sace, R.................................. W4-H.4 Sack, C.................................... W2-I.1 Sahlin, U................................W1-E.4, W3-E.2, W3-E.3 Sallach, J................................W2-B.1 Sansavini, G............ M4-A.2, W4-A.4 Santos, J......................T2-F.1, T2-F.2 Santos, L................................W1-A.2 Sassi, A....................W3-D.2, W3-D.3 Sato, M...................................... P.189 Satterfield, T............................T4-J.1 Satterfield, T............................T4-J.5 Sawyer, K................................W2-B.4 Sayes, C......................T4-C.2, T4-C.4 Sayre, P...................................T4-C.1 Schaefer, H................................ P.180 Schaffner, D...........M2-B.3, M3-B.3, M3-B.4, P.100, T4-B.2

Scheele, R............................... T3-E.2 Scheer, D.................... T4-I.2, W3-J.3 Schell, K.................................. T3-A.1 Scheufele, D............ M3-I.3, M3-J.11 Schmitt, K..............................W3-E.3 Schmitt-Olabisi, L.................. M3-I.2 Schnatter, A.............................. P.194 Schneider, G.............................. P.156 Schoen, M...............................T4-B.1 Schoeny, R..............................M2-G.2 Schuldt, J........................ P.26, P.121, P.153, P.184 Schultz, M............................... T4-A.1 Schumacher, R......................... P.119 Schuttringer, E.......................W3-D.1 Schweizer, P...........................M4-E.5 Schweizer, V...........................M3-H.4 Scott, C................................... W4-F.2 Scott, G...................................M4-B.2 Scott, R............................. P.17, P.183 Scouras, J..............................W2-C.2 Seager, T...................T4-A.4, W4-A.3 Seed, J....................................M2-G.3 Sellke Piet, P.......................... W3-J.4 Selvik, J......................T3-E.3, W2-E.4 Sentz, K............................ P.163, P.99 Seo, K........................................ P.113 Seog, S....................................W1-D.3 Sertkaya, A.............................W1-D.4 Severtson, D............... W2-I.1, W3-I.3 Sexton, K................................... P.106 Shabat, M...............................M3-E.2 Shamseldin, A.......................M3-A.4 Shan, X......................................... P.29 Shao, K..................... T3-G.1, W3-G.2 Shao, W..................................... P.150 Shao, W.................................. M3-J.3 Shatkin, J...................T3-C.2, T3-C.4 Shaw, A.................................... T4-A.5 Sheehan, P...........M3-G.1, P.82, P.88 Shelton, L.................................. P.108 Shevade, P.................................. P.70 Shi, J....................................... M4-J.5 Shih, I........................................... P.90

Author Index Shintani, K................................. P.148 Shiroyama, H.........................M2-H.5 Siebert, J................................M2-C.5 Siegrist, M................ M2-F.3, M4-J.5 Silva, C.................................... M3-J.9 Silva-Monroy, C......................M2-A.5 Silver, K...................................... P.178 Simis Wilkinson, M................ W2-J.4 Singh, B..................................M2-A.5 Singh, S..................................... P.175 Singhal, A........................... P.82, P.88 Sjöstrand, K................................ P.58 Skall, D........................................ P.54 Skelton, A...............................M3-A.3 Slutzky, D..................................T4-F.3 Small, M.........................P.36, T3-B.2 Smith, A.................... W3-F.1, W3-F.2 Smith, B..................... T2-B.1, T2-B.4 Smith, E................................... T4-A.1 Smith, M................................. W2-F.2 Smith, S....................................... P.89 Snell, M........................T4-A.4, P.197 Snow, D..................................W2-B.1 Soden, R.................................... P.181 Söderqvist, T............................... P.31 Soerskaar, L...........................W2-E.4 Soledano, B................................. P.87 Sommerville, D........................... P.49 Song, H........................ P.149, W1-J.4 Song, X....................................... P.173 Sonnberger, M..............T4-I.1, T4-I.2 Spackman, E..........................M4-G.4 Sparling, E...............................T2-B.1 Speight, H.................................. P.166 Spence, A............................... M4-J.3 Spence, E.................................. P.124 Sposato, R.............................. M4-J.3 Spungen, J.............................M3-G.4 Sridharan, S..................... P.14, P.158 Srivastava, S............................T2-G.1 Staid, A.....................M2-A.1, M2-A.5 Stauffacher, M....................... W1-J.3 Stedman, R..............................T3-J.3 Steentjes, K...................T4-I.1, T4-I.4

Steinhardt, J........................... M2-F.4 Stene, L..................................... P.168 Stephens, M.............................. P.185 Stevens, Y...............................M4-H.2 Stewart, D................................... P.89 Stewart, R...................... P.40, W3-I.4 Stillo, F....................................T3-D.4 Stockton, T.............................W3-B.1 Stockton, T.................................. P.44 Stoddard, M................................. P.71 Stone B...................................... P.202 Stoycheva, S.............................. P.177 Stringari, D......................... P.156, P.7 Su, L......................................... M3-I.3 Sue Wing, I.............................M3-E.4 Sullivan, K..................................... P.8 Sun, Q.....................................W4-C.1 Sundell, J.................................... P.65 Surminski, S........................... T-2A.4 Suryanarayan, S....................W4-E.3 Sütterlin, B............................. W2-J.2 Sutton, J......................... P.134, P.146 Swanson, S.............................T4-B.3 Swartout, J.............................W1-G.4

Thompson, K........... W4-J.1, W4-J.4 Thorisson, H..........................M2-E.1 Thorne, S...................................T2-I.2 Tobias, R................................. M4-J.1 Toccalino, P............................M4-G.5 Todd, A....................................... P.152 Todd-Searle, J.......................M3-B.4 Todoroki, A................................ P.161 Tokai, A...................................... P.161 Toledo, M..................................... P.92 Toledo, M........................ P.114, P.115 Toledo, S.................................... P.160 Tong, Y......................................... P.61 Tonn, G....................................M2-A.3 Torres Cancel, K.....................T3-C.1 Toshida, M .................................... P.5 Toy, V........................................ W1-I.3 Trainor, J.................................W3-A.3 Trumbo, C...................... P.119, P.195 Trump, B..................M4-H.5, T3-B.5 Trutnevyte, E..............T3-J.4, W1-J.3 Tsaioun, K.................................. P.185 Tsan, Y................................ P.46, P.51 Tsang, M..................................T4-C.1 Tsuchida, S................................ P.135 Tsunemi, K................................ P.109 Turgeon, J............................... T4-E.3 Tabri, K.......................................... P.4 Turley, A....................................... P.94 Tailor, J...................................W2-C.4 Turner, N................................ W4-J.2 Takebayashi, T............................ P.63 Tvinnereim, E................T4-I.1, T4-I.5 Takeshita, J...................... P.50, P.192 Tam, J.......................................T4-J.5 Tanaka, S................................... P.199 Tandoc, E..................................T3-J.2 Underwood, P.........................T3-C.2 Taniguchi, T............................M2-H.5 Taninobu, M........................... M2-J.3 Taylor, A....................................T2-J.4 Taylor, C.................................. M3-F.3 Vaishnav, P.......... M3-D.1, P.28, P.59 Thacker, S.............................M3-A.1, VanAbel, N...............................T4-B.1 M3-A.3, M3-A.4 VanAchte, T............................ M3-J.6 Thierer, A................................W1-D.2 VanDoren, J............M2-B.1, M2-B.4, T4-B.5 Thomas, E..............................M3-B.1 Thomas, M..................T4-J.3, T4-J.4 VanDoren, J............. M3-G.4, T4-B.4, W3-B.2 Thompson, J............................... P.35

T

U V

VanDyke, M.............................M4-G.1 VanLandingham, C................... P.170 Vardon, P................................W3-D.3 Veeravalli, S............................... P.166 Verner, D................................. M2-J.9 Vieglais, C...............................W2-B.3 Vigil, D.....................................M4-G.1 Villalba, N.......................P.96, T4-A.3 Vining, A..................................W4-D.1 Visschers, V............................ M4-J.5 Volchko, Y.................. P.31, P.32, P.62 Volken, S...................................T3-J.4 VonWinterfeldt, D..................M2-C.5 Vos, S.............................. P.134, P.146 Voyadgis, D................................ P.166

W Walaa, A...................................... P.52 Walderhaug, M......................... P.160 Walia, A...................................... P.175 Walia, A...................................... P.174 Walker, S.................. P. 40, P.84, P.93 Wall, T..................................... M2-J.9 Walls, M..................................W2-A.3 Walpole, H................................. P.138 Wambaugh, J..........................T4-G.1 Wang, B..................................W4-G.1 Wang, B................................ M3-J.10 Wang, D..................................W3-A.3 Wang, H.........................M3-B.3, P.61 Wang, S....................................... P.78 Wang, T...................................... P.173 Wang, T...................................... P.172 Wang, X........................................ P.61 Wang, Y........................................ P.78 Wang, Z................................... W4-F.2 Wanigasariya, K.................... W4-H.5 Ward, L........................................ P.22 Wardman, J............................... P.144 Warin, T................................... W2-I.4 Warshaw, C................................. P.41 Watson, J..................M2-A.1, M2-A.5 Watts, J.................................... W2-I.3

Way, D..................................... W1-J.2 Weaver, J................................M4-G.4 Wecker-Seipke, D................... W1-I.4 Wei, D........................M3-E.1, M3-E.4 Wein, A....................................M3-E.4 Weir, M...........P.101, T2-B.2, W4-G.2 Weiss, C...................................T3-C.1 Wernecke, M.......................... W4-F.3 Wheeler, J................................T4-F.3 Whittaker, I...................P.169, T2-C.3 Whyte, D.................................. T4-A.5 Wickremasinghe, R.............. W4-H.5 Wiener, J.................................M3-D.4 Wiersma, R................................. P.14 Wiersma, R............................W4-E.6 Wikoff, D.................................W3-G.3 Williams, A................................ P.196 Williams, E............................. W4-F.2 Williams, L................ T4-B.4, T4-B.5 Williams, M.............M3-B.2, W4-B.1 Williams, P..................P.110, W2-G.2 Willig, J....................................T4-D.3 Wilson, M.................................T2-B.1 Wilson, N..................................T4-J.5 Wilson, P......................P.169, T2-C.3 Wilson, R.........P.138, W4-I.2, W4-I.4 Wind, J....................................W3-B.1 Winkel, D......................P.169, T2-C.3 Winter, P.................................... P.145 Wirz, C..................... M3-I.3, M3-J.11 Wolff, C...................................W1-D.3 Wolfinger, J............................M3-D.2 Wolleben, W...........................W2-G.3 Wolske, K..................................T2-J.2 Womack, D............................ W4-H.5 Wong, H..................................W1-D.4 Wong, J................................... M4-F.3 Wong, S.................................. W4-F.3 Wong-Parodi, G......................T3-B.2 Wood, D..................................W1-D.3 Wood, M..........................P.39, T3-B.5 Wood, M......................... M4-F.4, P.38 Wooten, E.................................. P.127 Worrall, C............................... W4-F.3

Final Program

51

Author Index Wu, C............................... P.107, P.85, P. 90, P.91, P.137 Wu, F.........................M4-D.2, W2-J.3 Wu, H......................................... P.137 Wu, J............................................ P.79 Wu, K................. P.3, P.77, P.79, P.80, P.83, P.85, P.90, P.91, P.107, P.137, W4-G.3 Wu, K......................................... P.201 Wu, T............................................ P.51 Wu, Y........................................ T3-A.3

X

Z Zelloum, H.............................. T4-A.2 Zabeo, A..................................T4-C.1 Zabinski, J..............................W3-G.4 Zafonte, R................................ M2-I.2 Zahry, N................................... M3-I.1 Zaitchik, B............... W2-A.1, W2-A.4 Zaleski, R................. M3-G.2, T4-G.3 Zamarchi, K.............................. P.156 Zang, J....................................M4-D.3 Zeilmaker, M..........................M4-D.3

Zelikoff, J.................................T2-G.3 Zhan, J......................................T4-F.4 Zhang, G.................................... P.160 Zhang, M................................M4-C.4 Zhang, W........................ P.61, W4-I.4 Zhang, X.................................... P.151 Zhao, Y.............................. P.67, P.187 Zhen, G........................................ P.61 Zheng, S.................................... P.178 Zhou, L...................................... P.161 Zhu, Y........................................... P.61

Xenos, M.................. M3-I.3, M3-J.11 Xian, S........................................ P.150 Xian, S............................ M3-J.3, P.36 Xu, L............................................. P.60 Xue, M........................................ P.161

MASTER OF SCIENCE IN

APPLIED ECONOMICS

Y Yamaguchi, H..................... P.148, P.9 Yamamoto, K............................... P.63 Yampolskiy, R.........................W2-C.5 Yang, H..........P.160, W1-B.2, W1-B.4 Yang, J....................................... P.120 Yang, K....................................W3-A.4 Yang, Z......................... M2-F.1, P.121 Yasuda, M.................................T3-F.3 Ye, X.............................................. P.61 Yeh, S........................................... P.91 Yemshanov, D......................... T4-E.3 Yi, C.............................................. P.13 Yi, K.........................................M2-G.4 Yin, H............................................ P.60 Yin, M........................................... P.51 Yong, A....................................... P.140 Yoshinari, K................................. P.50 Young, S..................................W2-G.4 Yu, C........................................... P.191 Yu, H........................................W4-G.3 Yuan, S....................... W4-I.1, W4-J.5 Yuko, A....................................... P.131

52

Society For Risk Analysis Annual Meeting

Zhuang, J..............M3-J.10, M4-C.3, P.29, P.56, W3-A.2 Zimmerman, R......................W1-A.1 Zorn, C....................................M3-A.4 Zou, C.....................................W2-A.1 Zuidwijk, R..............................M4-C.5 Zwickle, A.................................. P.125

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EDITOR: Ragnar Loftstedt, King’s College London, UK The Journal of Risk Research is an international journal that publishes peer-reviewed theoretical and empirical research articles within the risk field from the areas of social, physical and health sciences and engineering, as well as articles related to decision making, regulation and policy issues in all disciplines. The main aims of the Journal of Risk Research are to stimulate intellectual debate, to promote better risk management practices and to contribute to the development of risk management methodologies. Journal of Risk Research is the official journal of the Society for Risk Analysis Europe and the Society for Risk Analysis Japan.

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