Social Media in Canada and Conflict in the Middle East A Vertex Panel Discussion
April 15th, 2011
Prepared for:
Vertex Panel Members
Prepared by:
David Coletto, CEO Alex Monk, Analyst
Social Media in Canada, and Conflict in the Middle East
Vertex Panel Report
Contents
1.0 Executive Summary ........................................................................................................ 3 2.0 About the Vertex Panel ................................................................................................... 4 Partnership with Carleton University ........................................................................................ 4 Abacus Data ........................................................................................................................ 4 3.0 Top Issues in Canada .................................................................................................... 5 4.0 Canada’s Reputation in the World ................................................................................... 6 6.0 Social Media Use in Canada .......................................................................................... 7 6.1 Social Media as a tool of Public Policy .............................................................................. 9 7.0 Canadian Involvement in World Conflict ........................................................................ 11 7.1 Should Canada be Involved? ......................................................................................... 11 7.2 Oil Prices and Regional Stability ..................................................................................... 12
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1.0 Executive Summary Responses to the February Vertex Panel held relatively steady across the Vertex Panel tracking questions of top issues of concern, reputation in the world, and threats to Canada. Health Care and public debts and deficits held their places as the most salient issues to panelists, and Canada’s reputation remained constant at 65% positive. A majority of panelists were engaged to some degree in social media use, with LinkedIn being the most popular application, followed closely by Facebook, at 58% and 54%, respectively. Overall, there was a strong opinion among panelists that social media is becoming an important means of communication, both for keeping in touch with other individuals and as a tool of public policy. Particular attention was paid to the importance of social media in reaching Canadian youth, although many panelists cautioned against relying too heavily on social media alone, as messaging can become diluted or out of context. Our final topic for this edition of the Vertex Panel examined issues of conflict in the Middle East and North Africa. A majority of panelists felt that the prudent course of action would be for Canada to become involved through the UN or NATO in aiding the resolution of the Libyan conflict, citing it as a perfect opportunity for Canada to rebuild its international image. However, a number of others questioned the legitimacy of the United Nations, suggesting that both Canada and Middle Eastern countries would benefit from a non-military approach to intervention. Panelists expressed concern over the potential for the continuing increase of oil prices and the spread and escalation of conflict through the regions. The Middle East is a notoriously difficult area of the world to predict, and is facing some of the most sustained civil unrest experienced in the region, and it remains to be seen what sort of lasting impact this will have on the rest of the world.
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2.0 About the Vertex Panel The Vertex Panel is an online, interactive community of some of Canada’s leading public policy scholars and practitioners. Members are regularly engaged in discussions about broad questions of social, economic, and foreign policy of importance to Canadians. The Vertex Panel is comprised of parliamentarians, senior public servants, leading academics, trade, industry, and labour organization leaders, and media commentators. To protect the integrity of the panel and the privacy of individual members, neither the membership composition nor the individual responses of members will ever be revealed. All reports will describe the responses of Vertex members in the aggregate. The discussion described in this report was completed from mid-February to early March, 2011.
Partnership with Carleton University Abacus Data has partnered with the Arthur Kroeger College of Public Affairs at Carleton University in the creation of the Vertex Panel. In recognition of the participation of Vertex Panel members, Abacus Data has established two, $2,500 scholarships for undergraduate students in the Public Affairs and Policy Management Program. Abacus Data is also providing internship opportunities for students to obtain hands-on experience in public opinion and marketing research.
Abacus Data Abacus Data Inc. is Canada’s newest player in the public opinion and marketing research industry. Whether it is telephone or online surveys, focus groups, one-on-one interviews, or secondary data analysis, the team at Abacus Data conducts public opinion, marketing, or stakeholder research that provides strategic insight to its clients. What sets the team at Abacus Data apart is its fresh perspective on politics, business, and consumer behaviour and a commitment to its clients. For more information about the Vertex Panel or Abacus Data, please visit the Abacus Data website at www.abacusdata.ca.
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3.0 Top Issues in Canada Each month, Vertex Panel members are asked to identify the top three public policy challenges facing Canada at the moment. A list of policy issues is presented and panelists can rank their top three. In February 2011, many of the same issues held their positions as important to panelists. The sustainability of the health care system held on to its top-ranked spot, with 31% of panel members ranking it very important. Public sector debt and deficits held about steady at 22%, as did productivity and competitiveness (6%). Education, however, fell from 8% to 2%. The priorities identified by Vertex Panel members were similar to those identified by Canadians in an Abacus Data national survey completed in January 2011. Seventy percent of Canadians (70%) identified health care as an important issue while 59% said that managing the economy was important. Another 49% believed dealing with the deficit was important while climate change and education were less likely to be selected as important issues for Canadians.
Top Ranked Issues (Source: Vertex Panel and Abacus National Poll, January 2011 (% Ranked as Important Issue) 31%
Sustainability of the health care system 27%
22%
Public sector debt and deficits
21%
6%
Productivity and international competitiveness
9%
9%
Climate change
8%
2%
Eduction
8% 0%
Vertex - February 2011
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5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Vertex - January 2011
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Issues perceived to be less important (those not ranked by panelists) included crime (no one identified it as a top issue), terrorism, Afghanistan, and environmental degradation. Despite the federal government’s “tough on crime” agenda, no panelists on the Vertex Panel identified crime as an important issue. In contrast, 30% of Canadians surveyed said that reducing crime was an important issue for them.
4.0 Canada’s Reputation in the World Panel members were asked what they thought about Canada’s reputation was around the world. Most members believed that Canada had either an excellent or good reputation in the world, while about a third of the Vertex Panel rated its reputation as fair. Very few panel members believed that Canada’s reputation in the world was poor.
How would you rate Canada's current reputation in the world? (Source: Vertex Panel, February 2011)
35% 65%
Excellent/Good
Fair/Poor
These results remain unchanged from the January 2011 Vertex report.
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6.0 Social Media Use in Canada Recently, the popularity and use of social media in Canada has expanded significantly. A survey by Abacus Data in December found that nearly two thirds of Canadians have a Facebook account and use it regularly. Now, having reached almost universal levels, it is difficult to have a conversation without hearing of social media in some way. To better understand usage patterns, we asked the Vertex Panel a series of question about their own social media use. We presented a list of the three major social media destinations – LinkedIn, Facebook, and Twitter, and asked panelists to select which ones they were members of. Overall, LinkedIn was the most commonly used social media tool of Vertex members at 58%. Facebook was a close second (54%), with Twitter trailing at 33%. Less than a third of panelists (28%) reported not using any form of social media.
Do you have an account with any of the following applications? (Source: Vertex Panel, February 2011) 58%
Linkedin
54%
Facebook
Twitter
None
33%
28%
A majority of panelists are members of at least one social media application, highlighting how mobile communication and social media have moved beyond the niche user and well into the mainstream. In determining the impact and influence of social media on the behaviour of individuals, however, it is more important to consider the reasons for membership over the act of registration itself. We asked each panelist who was a member of a social media application to identify any of the reasons in the table below which influenced their choice to join.
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Reasons for Membership, by Application (Source: Vertex Panel, February 2011) 38%
I joined because I feel it's becoming an important means of communication I joined because I felt pressure from my peers to participate
77% 58% 16% 18% 8% 81%
I joined to maintain and grow my professional network
41% 14%
I joined to stay informed about current events and the opinions of certain public figures
9% 64% 11% 0%
I joined to stay in touch with family and friends
0% 75%
LinkedIn
Twitter
Facebook
The results in the table above suggest Vertex Panelists clearly distinguish between the purposes for each of the applications tested. A majority of panelists suggested they joined both Facebook and Twitter because they felt each was becoming an important means of communication. Each application was placed into a clearly defined niche, by purpose. Three quarters of panelists identified Facebook as a tool for staying in touch with family and friends, while none used either LinkedIn or Twitter for that purpose. LinkedIn, by contrast was overwhelmingly identified as a professional networking tool, interestingly earning the lowest score on the measure of importance as a means of communication. These elements combined seem to suggest that many LinkedIn see the application as a networking necessity more than a tool for communication. Twitter was perhaps seen as the most versatile of the tested applications, earning a large majority of support (64%) for its role in spreading news about current events and public figures; as well as some usefulness (41%) as a networking tool. Also, panelists were more likely to join Twitter because of its perceived role as a useful communication tool than any of the other applications.
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6.1 Social Media as a tool of Public Policy With a growing role as both communication aide and an information vehicle for current events, social media has the potential to become important in the dissemination of public policy. We asked the Vertex Panel what sort of role social media should have in public policy debates.
Do you think social media is an important tool for developing good public policy? (Source : Vertex Panel, February 2011) Very unimportant, 2% Somewhat unimportant, 6%
Very Important, 20%
Neither, 26%
Somewhat Important, 46%
Overall, 66% of panelists identified social media as an important tool for developing good public policy. We also asked panelists to explain the reasons behind their answer. According to panelists, the importance does not necessarily derive from the content of the social media messaging, but rather that as a medium, it reaches a much larger audience than alternatives. The speed at which information can be disseminated via social media makes it an attractive option for sharing important messaging. Further, many of the panelists commented that social and online media are key (and in some cases only) methods of reaching young people, and thus engaging them in public policy debates. Panelists did caution, however, that just because information is easily accessible it does not necessarily translate into accurate or valuable information. Also, several panelists pointed out the risks of relying on short bursts of condensed information from a variety of sources. This sort of information synthesis requires a degree of engagement which does not necessarily exist; it places the onus on the reader to become informed rather than the sender to fully inform.
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While engaging youth is an important part of the public policy debate, informed engagement is requisite for effective policy development. Thus far, social media has proven its ability to spread information, but has yet to reach a point where sentiments expressed via these media can provide a below-the-surface analysis.
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7.0 Canadian Involvement in World Conflict 7.1 Should Canada be Involved? Back in February, just as the crises in Libya and Egypt were unfolding, we posed the following question to the Vertex Panel: considering recent violence in Libya and other parts of North Africa, what role, if any, should Canada play in addressing these conflicts; or do you think such issues should be left the United Nations or local governments?
What role, if any, should Canada play in addressing these events? (Source : Vertex Panel, February 2011) Something should be done, but the UN is not effective, 10%
Stay out - these are problems local governments must address, 11% Get involved in some way, but only with NATO, the UN, or another group, 60%
Among those panelists who advocated some sort of involvement, virtually all stressed the need for a multilateral approach – whether through the United Nations, NATO, or some other framework. However, a significant number pointed out that such involvement should only come at the request of the country in question. For aid to be effective it must be requested, otherwise Canada could be seen as meddling in the affairs of sovereign states. A number of panelists questioned the current efficacy of the UN in dealing with international issues, pointing out a number the institution’s past failures and the extent of internal bickering. Further, there was considerable polarity as to whether Canada should be involved in a peacekeeping capacity, or simply by enforcing sanctions and providing humanitarian and support.
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Interestingly, a selection of panelists commented on how this is the sort of opportunity that, if handled properly, could help rebuild Canada’s international reputation in a meaningful way. Taking this as a retrospective analysis, by participating in the NATO mission in Libya, Canada has acted in accordance with the majority of the Vertex Panel. However, the focus of most Vertex comments regarding involvement would have directed Canada’s efforts towards humanitarian support rather than military action. While military intervention may have been the correct route, it remains to be seen whether such commitment will limit the resources available for other types of involvement throughout the region.
7.2 Oil Prices and Regional Stability As a final question, we asked panelists whether or not we should be concerned about civil conflict in the Middle East and North Africa leading to increased oil prices or further political instability. A majority of panelists felt that both areas were cause for concern; that continued conflict would in fact lead to further conflict and increases in oil prices. However, there was some disagreement on how long such increases would last, and what sort of international impact they would cause. Several panelists pointed out that increasing oil prices are not only good for Canada in the short run, as we are a large oil producer; but also in the long run, as ever higher prices may lead to lower demand for fossil fuels. Another area of attention was the use of Saudi Arabia as a thermometer for serious unrest. Panelists highlighted the spread of unrest or concern over oil prices spreading to Saudi Arabia would be an important indicator of a dramatic escalation of the seriousness of conflict. Stability in the Middle East has long been an issue of international concern. In this case, it remains to be seen if the pressure being generated by civil conflict will be organized, financed, and motivated enough to maintain pressure long and hard enough to produce change, and what sort of change will result.
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