Short Profile on Firm and Speaker A. Falcon Real Estate Investment Company, LP •
US Commercial Real Estate firm created in 1991 by Howard Hallengren and Jack Miller, both from Chase. Offers comprehensive services to high-net-worth individuals and institutional investors. 6 US Regional offices, an office in Beijing, expanding in Latin America and the European Union. $ 3 bn AUMs of US commercial real estate. 100% Outperformance vs. its benchmark (NCREIF) in 17 years.
B. Jack Miller, Co-Founder (1991) / President (New York and Chicago) •
Co-Founded Falcon after serving as Manager of the Real Estate Investment at Chase Private Bank where he was responsible for property acquisition, property management and mortgage financing. Before he was at The First National Bank of Chicago for 10 years in the bank’s real estate investment division. He is a founding member of the Accounting Standards Committee of the National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries, which is the coordinating group that sets accounting standards for U.S. institutional investors. Mr. Miller received a BS in accounting, a Master of finance in real estate from De Paul University, and an MBA from the University of Chicago.
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Conference Outline
Introduction 1. Publicly vs. Privately Held Commercial Real Estate 2. The International Perspective
Conclusion
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Conference Outline
Introduction 1. Publicly vs. Privately Held Commercial Real Estate 2. The International Perspective
Conclusion
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Traditional Global Asset Classes A. Traditional • • •
Money Market Bonds Stocks (Listed Real Estate Investment Trusts: “REITs”)
B. Alternative • • • • • •
Private Equity (“Private Equity funds”, “Private REITs” or “Club Deals”) Hedge Funds (“Sector Specific”: Real Estate) Structured Products (“Principal Protected” around RE indices or “REITs baskets”) Managed Futures Commodities Real Estate (Direct investment by one investor in one building or owner-occupied)
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Equity
Traditional Global Real Estate Asset Classes Private
Public
Direct Property Investments
Real Estate Securities
$ 23 Trillion
$ 2 Trillion
GLOBAL REAL ESTATE •$ 25 Trillion (50% US) $ 16 Investment Grade $ 9 Non-Investment Grade ($ 10 pure investments)
Debt
•20% vs. Global Stock + Bond Market Cap.
Whole Mortgage
Structured Debt (CMOs, CLOs etc.)
• 7 times bigger than Hedge Funds • 12 times bigger than Private Equity
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Real Estate Evolves with Private Equity 1. Buyouts
Purchase of controlling interest with substantial borrowed capital Mezzanine
Mezzanine Stage
Private Company
Real Estate Distress
Private Company
Late Stage
Mature Stage
Growth Stage
Private/Public Company
Private/Public Company
Industry
Venture Stage
PIPE
IPO
Private/Public Company
Convertible Debt Public/Private Debt
Follow-on Offerings Traditional Bank Loans High Yield Debt & Equity
2. Venture Capital Funding
Focuses on investing in companies with high growth rates
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Conference Outline
Introduction
1. Publicly vs. Privately Held Commercial Real Estate 2. The International Perspective Conclusion
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Positioning Debt/Equity vs. Public/Private Risk / Return of Real Estate Investment Strategies
Equity
Opportunistic Value-Added Long/Short Public Equity Core Property
Debt
Public Debt Whole Mortgage
Risk Perception Source: Fund Evaluation Group and Falcon Asset Management
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Too Much Information? “US Housing Going down” April 26th 2007
“ Foreign Real-Estate Funds Boom Firms Unveil Scores of New Plays, Spurred by Strong Returns and Growth in Overseas REITs”. July 7, 2007
“Euro soars to new high against U.S. dollar” July 10, 2007
“Subprime poor practice risks turning to malpractice” July 4 2007
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R. Bernstein: Merrill Lynch Chief US Strategist
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Asset Allocation and Expected Return: 1 Security Selection 4.6%
Market Timing 1.8%
Other Factors 2.1%
Asset Allocation 91.5%
• 91.5% of long-term total account performance including Stocks, Bonds, Money
Markets resulted from asset allocation decisions (statistically tested over the past 20 years) • Mitigate the necessity of secondary market - like in REITs Source: Ibbotson Associates, Inc.
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Risk Adjusted Returns (+ Standard Deviation): 2 HIGH
Private Equity
Return %
Global Real Estate
Hedge Funds
MEDIUM
Oil
Global Stocks
Commodities
Global Bonds Gold Global Money Markets
LOW
LOW
MEDIUM
HIGH
Risk % Source: 1995—2005 Source: BHF-BANK
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US Public vs. US Private Real Estate Returns US Public RE Benchmark (50% leveraged) vs. Private Benchmark (Unleveraged)
NAREIT
NCREIF
Source: Falcon /NCREIF & NAREIT/ Columbia Business School
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REITs Trade at NAV Premium vs. Underlying Assets 40%
30%
Long-term Average = 6.6% 20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
Source: Green Street Advisors, Current as of May 2007
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When Real Estate > Stock Market Volatility
S&P 500 120 Day Volatility
REITs 120 Day Volatility
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
Source: Bloomberg / RMS & SPX 120 Day Return Volatility
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Correlation Coefficients (+ covariance): 3 Falcon Performance Statistics vs. Benchmarks: January 1991 - June 2006 S&P 500 FTSE 100 NCREIF Index Total Quarters 62 62 62 Positive Quarters 67.74% 69.35% 87.10% Negative Quarters 32.26% 30.65% 12.90% Median Quarterly Return 2.41% 2.08% 2.36% Average Quarterly Return 2.47% 2.27% 2.08% Standard Deviation 7.43% 7.09% 1.84% Best Quarter 20.87% 25.13% 5.43% Worst Quarter -17.63% -17.80% -5.33% Maximum Drawdown -45.60% -45.55% -9.66% Sharpe Ratio* -0.04% -0.07% -0.37% * Risk free rate is 2.75% (the average 5-yr T-Note from Jan '91 Š June '06
FALCON 62 98.39% 1.61% 3.44% 3.74% 1.79% 10.42% -0.14% -0.14% 0.55%
Correlation Matrix
FALCON -0.04 0.02 0.77 1.00
S&P 500 FTSE 100 NCREIF Index FALCON
S&P 500 1.00
FTSE 100 0.73 1.00
NCREIF Index -0.04 0.01 1.00
Source: Falcon
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Steps 1+2+3 = Efficient Frontier 15.50 Efficient Frontier with 10% Alternative Investments
15.00
Efficient Frontier with 5% Alternative Investments
14.50
Return %
14.00 13.50 Efficient Frontier without Alternative Investments
13.00 12.50 12.00 11.50 10.00
10.50
11.00
11.50
12.00
12.50
13.00
13.50
14.00
14.50
Risk % Source: 1980—2000 Source: Merrill Lynch Quantitative & Equity Derivatives Research
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How Much Alternative Investments?
Cash Bond 50-60%*
Equity Alternative Invest.
*Real assets, which includes real estate and commodities, is the largest investment category with 31 cents of each Harvard endowment dollar. Source: Falcon
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Synopsis of Private vs. Public Real Estate Public Equity Advantages
Private Equity Advantages
Publicly traded (liquid)
Access to broader array of investments
Lower fees
Lower correlation to stock markets
No minimum size (individual investors)
Public Equity Disadvantages
Private Equity Disadvantages
Illiquid
Theoretically, lower returns due to liquidity premium
Performance often driven by capital flows and other non- real estate related factors
Higher correlation to public stock markets
Higher fees Appraisal-based valuations Difficult to benchmark
High dispersion of returns in value-added and opportunistic sectors
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Conference Outline
Introduction 1. Publicly vs. Privately Held Commercial Real Estate 2. The International Perspective
Conclusion
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Global: GDP $ 60 Trillion vs. $ 180 Trillion Listed Global Financial Markets (Excluding Derivatives)
2006 2005 2000 1995 1990 0
100
200
TOTAL Bank Deposits Government Debt Corporate Debt Equities
•Financial Markets offer broader access to capital from borrowers •Financial Markets offer more efficient pricing • Financial Markets increase opportunities for sharing risk BUT… • Lately securitization has led to substantial increases in leverage and greater systemic risk for the entire financial system
Source: McKinsey Global Institute
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Real Economy/Financial Markets Decoupling: G7?
•
1990: 33 countries have domestic market capitalization (excluding derivatives) > GDP
•
2006: 72 countries – virtually all industrial economies and the largest emerging markets have financial markets that are two to three times the size of their GDP
Source: McKinsey Global Institute
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Global Real Estate Markets As of January 07
•Investable stock $6.1 trillion
•Mature/ Highly Mature: •Maturing: •Emerging:
•Invested stock $3.2 trillion
83% 15% 2%
Europe / Russia
•Invested stock $4.7 trillion
•Total stock $9.2 trillion
Americas
Total stock •$9.5 trillion
Middle East / Asia
•Investable stock $6.6 trillion
•Mature/ Highly Mature: •Maturing: •Emerging:
•Invested stock $1.9 trillion •97% •1% •1%
Inter-regional capital flows of $115bn in H1 2007
Total stock •$5.9 trillion
•Investable stock $3.5 trillion •Mature/ Highly Mature: •Maturing: •Emerging:
17% 72% 11%
Sources: RREEF; DTZ; ULI; PwC
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International Real Estate Risk Adjusted Returns? •Returns and risk for public real estate securities in various regions around the world can produce half of the returns for twice the risk and can produce twice the returns for half the risk depending what you targeted country allocation is. •Returns for Asia were for instance lower than other regions due to problems the region has faced, including a weak Japanese real estate market for more than a decade and the SARS outbreak in 2003 Returns and Risk of Public Property Securities Markets (1993-2006, in U.S. dollars) Return
Standard Deviation
U.S.
13.60%
14.90%
Europe
13.90%
14.40%
Asia
7.40%
33.20%
Australia
16.60%
18.20%
Source: Morgan Stanley, Global Property Research
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Correlation: International Real Estate Markets? • International diversification within public real estate equities is beneficial due to the low correlations of public real estate equities between various global regions
Correlation of Public Property Securities Markets (1993-2006, in U.S. dollars)
U.S.
Europe
Asia
Australia
U.S.
1
0.5
0.32
0.4
Europe
0.5
1
0.34
0.52
Asia
0.32
0.34
1
0.44
Australia
0.4
0.52
0.44
1
Source: Morgan Stanley, Global Property Research
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2007: $ 2 Trillion Listed Real Estate Australia Asia-Pacific 9% 25% Hong Kong 5% US 53%
Japan 11%
UK 6% Americas 57%
Euro zone 10%
Australia Hong Kong Japan Other Asian France Germany Italy Spain Netherlands Other Eurozone UK Switzerland Sweden C & E Europe Other European US Canada Mexico Brazil Other
Europe 18%
Sources: EPRA/NAREIT, LaSalle Investment Management
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Public and Private Real Estate Room to Grow HNI's Real Estate Investments (2006)
100% 90% 80%
70% 60% 50%
40% 30%
20% 10% 0% Global
North America
REIT
Latin America
Commercial
Europe
AsiaPacific
Residential*
Middle East
* Secondary Residence
Source: Merrill Lynch/Cap Gemini
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The Luxembourg Fund Center 2007 Worldwide Mutual Funds
€
billions 9 000 Luxembourg is the second largest fund center in the world after the USA
8 000 7 000 6 000 5 000
1 839 8 426
4 000 3 000
4 542
2 000 2 176 1 000 0 USA
Europe
Asia & Pacific
Sources: EFAMA & ICI
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Luxembourg Real Estate Funds: Before the SIF AUM and Number of RE Funds
Huge growth since 2004 Closed-end and Open-end funds and funds of funds 40 35
•
Strong yet flexible Regulation Cheaper for Fund Managers than the US Reputation of location Centre of sophisticated real estate investment funds Global promoter base Global investor base Tax efficiency and stability
AUM USD bln
Reasons for success: • • • •
140 129 120
30
100
25
80
80
20
60
15
48
10
36
5
40
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Number of subfunds
• •
20
0
0 02
03 AUM
04
05
06
# (sub)funds
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SIF : Market Overview Specialized investment funds launched since February 13, 2007 250
220 200
150
115
119
200708
200709
93
100
72 38
50
25 8
12
0 200702
200703
200704
200705
200706
200707
200712
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SIF Launched in Feb. 07 is a Favored Structure Profile of Luxembourg Investment Funds
Key criteria
UCITS
Non-UCITS
SIF
SICAR
Investment restrictions (eligible assets)
Restricted
Flexible
Flexible
Moderate
Risk diversification
High
Medium
Low
None
Ease of public distribution
High
Medium
Low
Low
Supervisory framework
Targeted to retail investor protection
Targeted to retail investor protection
More flexible
More flexible
Time to establish
Low - Medium
Medium - High
Very low
Low
Target investors
All
All
Institutional / HNWI
Institutional / HNWI
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The SIF Features are Tailored for Real Estate Key Features
UCITs
Non-UCITs
SIF
SICAR
Umbrella structures
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes(1)
Share-classes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Debt financing
No
No
Yes
Yes
Leverage
No
Yes
Yes
Yes
Valuation basis
Probable realization value
Probable realization value
Fair value
Probable realization value
Subscription/ redemption price
NAV
NAV
As per offering document
NAV
NAV frequency (minimum)
Monthly
Monthly
Annual
Annual (1)
Open or closed ended
Open ended
Both
Both
Both
Annual Report
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Semi-annual report
Yes
Yes
No
No
Regulatory Reporting
Yes
Yes
No
No
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The SIF: In a Nutshell •
•
• • •
Eligible investor base: Investment in a SIF is reserved for “well-informed” investors requiring a limited level of protection and looking for investment flexibility suitable to their particular expertise and needs. Investment flexibility: the range of assets (nature of assets and/or associated risks) eligible for a SIF is broad and consequently includes, but is not limited to, equities, bonds, derivatives, structured products, real estate, hedge funds and private equity type investments. The SIF should comply with the general principle of risk diversification. Light supervision Organisational adaptability Efficient tax regime
REGULATORY
TAX
DISTRIBUTION
LICENSING
Criteria
SIF
Regulated vehicle? Pre-approval by regulator? Other than local GAAP? Investment restrictions? Investment in RE, PE, HF?
Yes No Yes No All
Simplified prospectus regime?
Yes
Subscription tax? Yes Income tax? No Access to DTT? Yes / No Withholding tax on dividends paid? (residents / non No residents) Standard VAT rate? 15 % Listing possible? Yes / No Maximum number of No investors? Minimum investment Min. € 125k amount? Minimum experience Yes required? Service providers / persons •Directors subject to regulator's •Custodian approval? •Auditor
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Pension Funds Pooling: Increasingly In Demand
British Pension Fund
Irish Pension Fund
Chilean Pension Fund
Brazil Pension Fund
British Pension Fund
Irish Pension Fund
Chilean Pension Fund
Brazil Pension Fund
Asset administrator Depositary bank
Converted in
Virtual or entity pension pooling
Paying agent Administrative agent
Investments
Investments Investments Investments
Investments
Shares Bonds Deposit
Transfer agent
Real Estate
Auditors Law consultant Tax consultant
• Quantitative benefits: Economies of scales at asset management & custodian bank level up to 0.70% savings • Qualitative benefits; Improve measurement/selection of service provider Enable consistent/centralized corporate governance. • Multinationals running pension funds in several countries have implemented pension pooling vehicle
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Conference Outline
Introduction 1. Publicly vs. Privately Held Commercial Real Estate 2. The International Perspective
Conclusion
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Conclusion
A. Privately Held vs. Publicly Held Real Estate • •
Each have their own merit, even if the Privately-held RE is likely to continue to dominate Clearly Commercial Real Estate in all its forms will continue to grow for all the reasons we discussed
B. International Perspective • • •
Trend # 1; Hard Assets logic inescapable Trend # 2: The Global Real Estate market will continue to integrate Trend # 3: The Luxembourg Real Estate Funds will continue to grow
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Questions & Answers
Muchas Gracias !
Jack D. Miller President Falcon Real Estate Investment Company, LP 150 North Michigan Avenue, Suite 2700, Chicago, IL 60601
Tel: (312) 240-9195, Fax: (312) 240-9194, E-mail:
[email protected] www.falconreal.com
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