SECTION 3: TERMS OF REFERENCE (TOR)

SECTION 3: TERMS OF REFERENCE (TOR) ETHIOPIA GENERAL INFORMATION Services/Work Description: Firm Level Consultancy Service for Background Studies for ...
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SECTION 3: TERMS OF REFERENCE (TOR) ETHIOPIA GENERAL INFORMATION Services/Work Description: Firm Level Consultancy Service for Background Studies for the 15-year Perspective Plan Preparation for National Planning Commission (NPC) Project/Program Title: Strengthening Capacity of NPC/CD Duty Station: Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Country Office and NPC Type of the Contract: International Consultancy Firm Duration: 66 working days distributed over three months Expected Start Date: Beginning of October 2016 I. BACKGROUND / RATIONALE Ethiopia has long history of preparing and implementing comprehensive and robust planning for economic and social development that dates back to the 1950’s with the launch and implementation of the three-five years national development plans exercised during 1957 – 1973. The central planning exercise continued through the early 1990’s in the national development campaigns including the formulation of a ten year perspective plan (1984/85 – 1993/94) which was largely aborted owing to the then protracted civil war that culminated to the down fall of the socialist regime in 1991. Poverty reduction and its ultimate eradication has been the overriding development agenda of the Government since 1991. Thus macroeconomic and sector polices, strategies and programs have been geared towards addressing the poverty agenda. Formulation and implementation of the sustainable Development and Poverty Reduction Program (SDPRP) spanning 2002/03 – 2004/05 was the first comprehensive national development program implemented and one of the key lessons drawn from its implementation was the need for formulation of longer term perspective development plan from which medium tern national development plans could be cascaded and implemented. Government of Ethiopia has set a vision of becoming a lower middle income county by 2025. Mainstreaming the targets of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) since the early 2000’s in to national development planning and policy framework was also an important element that called for the formulation of long-term perspective plan. As a result the ten-year Perspective Plan for the period 2005/06 to 2014/15 was formulated in 2005. This plan was aligned with the final year of the MDGs. The two medium term plans namely the Plan for Accelerated and Sustain Development to End Poverty (PASDEP) spanning 2004/05 – 2009/10 and its successor the first Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP) (2010/11 - 2014/15) were formulated and implemented in the framework of the ten year perspective plan. The Ethiopian economy gets bigger and complex largely attributed to the double digit economic growth being registered since 2004 and called for the need to establish a separate planning body. As a result the National Planning Commission (NPC) was established in February 2013 as an autonomous federal government organ by the Council of Ministers Regulation No 281/2013 with a mandate of leading and coordinating the formulation and evaluation of the implementation of the medium term national development plans within the framework of the long-term perspective plan. Thus, one of the key mandates of NPC is formulation of a 15-years perspective plan within which five-years development plans are to be prepared and implemented. The second Growth and Page 1 of 12

Transformation Plan which represents the first five year plan of the 15-years perspective plan was successfully formulated and has already entered into implementation. However the 15 years perspective plan spanning the period 2015/16 to 2029/30 is yet to be formulated. The preparation of this 15-years perspective plan will be informed by Ethiopia’s vision of becoming a lower middle income and carbon neutral country by 2025, developments and departures on both domestic and international conditions that have direct or indirect bearings on the Ethiopian economy. The plan will also be aligned with the sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and agenda 2063 of AU. The formulation of the perspective plan will among others require sound analysis. While the requisite background which serve as the basis for the formulation of the perspective plan is available, some areas require further research and analysis. The research areas whose study outcomes would help inform the formulation of the perspective plan are: a) articulation of long-term macroeconomic framework b) energy sector development c) industrial development d) agriculture e) transport and f) human resources development. The detailed terms of reference and deliverables for each study is indicated below. UNDP in collaboration with the National Planning Commission is seeking the service of a top-notch reputable international institution to lead and coordinate background studies on the above mentioned strategic and thematic areas. The institution is encouraged to include as part of the team, where necessary, competent national experts in order to draw their experience and knowledge of Ethiopia’s development landscape. The findings of the studies will serve as inputs to the formulation of the 15-year Perspective Plan for Ethiopia to guide the country’s transformation to a middle income country. II. OBJECTIVES OF THE SERVICE / WORK The principal objective of this assignment is to lead and coordinate the drafting of well-researched background papers on six thematic areas, namely, macroeconomic framework, energy sector development, industrial development, agricultural policy and development, transport sector and the human resources development in Ethiopia. Findings of these studies will inform formulation of the 15-year perspective plan that spans from 2015/16 to 2029/30 which is aligned to Agenda 2030 and agenda 2063 and guides the country’s transformation to a middle-income country. The typology of the studies must draw the development experience of fast growing economies of South East Asia such as Singapore, Malaysia, South Koria and Vietnam which demonstrated the efficacy of long-term Perspective Plans as key instrument for an integrated and coordinated management and implementation of a market economic system. It would also help the private sector and other non-state actors to design long term investment polices strategies and programs that are aligned and complementary to the public sector policies and strategies. Although this 15-year perspective plan is a 10 years extension of the GTP II, there is a need to review the rationales, objectives, and strategic pillars of GTP Ii in the context of the perspective plan to sharpen policies and strategies aimed at addressing development bottlenecks identified in GTP I and development challenges during GTP II and beyond. III. SCOPE OF THE SERVICE / WORK Macro-Economist/ Team Leader The 15 years perspective plan is expected to articulate long term macroeconomic framework that include setting baselines and targets for key macroeconomic variables: Real sector(supply and demand side projections), fiscal projection (government revenue and expenditure by major components, budget deficit and its financing ), monetary aggregates (money supply and demand projections by major monetary aggregates). This exercise need to be complemented by review of recent performance at both macro and sectorial levels as well as overview of envisaged polices and strategies that will help to build alternative growth scenarios with plausible and solid assumptions. Page 2 of 12

The major tasks of the macroeconomist include the following, among others: 3.1.1 Undertake comprehensive assessment of recent macroeconomic developments and trends along with the macroeconomic policy landscape of the country through reviewing available performance reports and existing macroeconomic development policy documents on fiscal, external trade and balance of payments policies, monetary policies, saving and investment financial development strategies, etc.; 3.1.2 Undertake projections of the 15 years long term macroeconomic framework through setting baselines and targets on real sector and prices, public finance, external trade and BOP and monetary aggregates in line with the attainment of the envisioned lower middle income status by 2025; 3.1.3 Undertake supply side GDP projections and scenario analysis for Real GDP in terms of levels, growth and share in GDP by major economic sectors (agriculture, industry and services subdivided in to subsectors for each sector; 3.1.4 Undertake a comprehensive assessment of trends in growth, poverty and inequality and conduct scenario analysis on inequality and growth elasticity of poverty reduction; 3.1.5 Undertake demand side GDP projections and scenario analysis by major demand side GDP aggregates (private consumption, government consumption, gross domestic capital formation, Exports of Goods and non-factor services, Imports of Goods and non-factor services, resource balance, gross domestic saving subdivided by public private and foreign savings; 3.1.6 Undertake scenario analysis to show how saving-investment gap and the widening resource balance would be bridged with in the given policy environment; 3.1.7 Undertake scenario analysis on how the currently widening trade deficit will be narrowed with in the given policy environment and how it will be bridged along with analysis of policy options; 3.1.8 Undertake scenario analysis on how the set macroeconomic targets would be attained during the period of the perspective plan; 3.1.9 Undertake a comprehensive assessment of recent trends in private sector development by both domestic and foreign in regard to investment, employment generation and as growth drivers in terms of increase in capital and productivity necessary for the attainment of the growth targets set in the long term perspective plan; 3.1.10 Review and draw lessons from relevant country experiences, specifically experience of the emerging South East Asian economies like South Korea and Malaysia, and other peer countries from SSA if deemed necessary. This would help to shape and inform the overall macroeconomic targets, policies and strategies; 3.1.11 Put forward appropriate recommendations (policy & institutional) that would feed into the formulation of the 15 years perspective plan; and 3.1.12 Work closely with a team of experts of the NPC to impart knowledge and experience and present the outcomes of the study at different stages in the course of conducting the research work. This will help to share knowledge and expertise for key staff of the NPC on practical aspects of macroeconomic modeling, macroeconomic projections and scenario analysis. 3.2. Energy Specialist The major tasks of the energy specialist include but not limited to the following: 3.2.1 Conduct comprehensive situation analysis through critically reviewing relevant existing documents: polices, strategies, performance reports with respect to the energy subsectors; 3.2.2 Undertake review of recent trends in energy supply by sources (hydro, wind, biofuel, geothermal, etc.) and energy consumption by various categories of users(government, business, households, etc.); 3.2.3 Set appropriate baselines and targets to undertake energy demand and supply projections; 3.2.4 Undertake energy demand projections disaggregated by households, industry and government and conduct scenario analysis by considering relevant assumptions;

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3.2.5 Undertake energy supply projections disaggregated by sources such as hydro, wind, geothermal, biofuel and solar and conduct scenario analysis by considering relevant assumptions; 3.2.6 Undertake projections on energy financing requirements and gaps and how the gaps would be bridged; 3.2.7 Conduct analysis on possible sources of energy financing and sustainability of energy financing 3.2.8 Identify potential areas for private public partnership in energy financing; 3.2.9 Review relevant country experiences, specifically experiences of emerging South East Asian economies pertaining to energy infrastructure development and how they met energy financing needs; 3.2.10 Assess institutional and organizational capacity (both public and private) in the energy sector and recommend appropriate strategies to build implementation capacity for energy projects ; 3.2.11 Assess the status of distribution & transmission gridlines and storages (sub-stations) to ease electricity access for the development of new areas and existing cities; 3.2.12 Assess the existing electricity distribution system of to evaluate the Transmission & Distribution losses and indicate mechanisms to improve energy supply; 3.2.13 Identify and outline comprehensive efficiency strategies that not only help to develop renewable energy sources & improve grid reliability but reduce energy consumption & loss reduction; 3.2.14 Put forward appropriate recommendations (policy, institutional) that would feed into the perspective plan; and 3.2.15 Impart knowledge and experience by working closely with NPC core staff to build in-house technical capacity within the NPC. 3.3. Industrial Economist The major tasks of the industrial economist include the following: 3.3.1 Review relevant policies, strategies and guidelines, inter-alia, industrial development strategy, Ethiopian Industrial Development Strategic Plan (2013-2025), the industrial zone framework, including the agroindustrial park, National Strategy and Plan of Action for Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Development (2015-2025), Human Resource Requirements Plan for selected Ethiopian Manufacturing Industries , Performance reports, among others, . in order to conduct comprehensive situation analysis; 3.3.2 Undertake rigorous situation analysis (recent developments) of the industrial sector with focus on the large and medium scale manufacturing industries and identify challenges and constraints of manufacturing industries; 3.3.3 Based on the assessment, set baselines and targets for selected subsectors of large and medium scale manufacturing industries such as leather and foot wear, textiles, food and beverages, chemicals, metals, agro-processing, pharmaceuticals, etc., for production (in terms of physical production), gross value of output, value added, labor productivity, employment generation and export earnings; 3.3.4 Undertake projections and scenario analysis on production, value added, productivity, competitiveness and sustainability for industrial development given Ethiopia’s comparative advantages in light manufacturing (agro–processing, textile and garment, leather and leather products, metal and engineering, and chemical and pharmaceutical sub sectors); 3.3.5 Assess the possible transition towards diversification to new manufacturing sectors: biotechnology, ICT (both hardware and software), petrochemical, electrical and electronics); 3.3.6 Undertake detailed analysis of the linkages between agriculture and manufacturing industries as well as micro and small manufacturing industries as vehicles for industrial development in the country; 3.3.7 Analyze opportunities in the global value chains taking Ethiopia’s comparative advantage in light manufacturing industries (textile, leather and leather products and food and beverages, etc.); 3.3.8 Analyze the prospects and challenges of the on-going industrial parks development as it is considered to be a key strategy for industrial expansion in the country; 3.3.9 Review and document relevant country experiences, specifically experience of the emerging South East Asian economies focusing on export-oriented light manufacturing industries. Indicate lessons that we can draw and adopt and what we should do differently to speed up industrialization; Page 4 of 12

3.3.10 In view of the current trends in the concentration and distribution of industries and the on-going developments of industrial parks and based on lessons drawn from country experiences, conduct analysis of the challenges in shaping the industrial land scape of the country and how to proactively manage urban expansion for it to positively contribute in catalyzing structural transformation; 3.3.11 Assess the institutional and organizational capacity in the industrial sector in terms of coordination, policy making process and strategy design and recommend measures to address capacity gaps including human resource needs; 3.3.12 Put forward appropriate recommendations (policy, institutional) on how to achieve the set targets that would feed into the perspective plan; and 3.3.13 Impart knowledge and experience to build in-house technical capacity by working closely with NPC staff. 3.4. Agricultural Economist The major tasks of the agricultural economist include the following: 3.4.1 Undertake comprehensive situation analysis of the agricultural sector with focus on crops subsector (major crops and cash crops) and livestock subsector through reviewing relevant agricultural development policies, strategies and programs (such as rural development policies and strategies, agricultural investment frameworks, Ethiopian Livestock Development Master Plan, CAADAP, etc.) and performance reports on agriculture and rural transformation; 3.4.2 Undertake detailed assessment of recent trends in production and productivity of major crops (cereals, pulses and oil seeds) and conduct analysis of the potentials, prospects and challenges to increase production and productivity of major crops (cereals, pulses and oil seeds); 3.4.3 Undertake detail assessment of recent trends in production and productivity of high value crops (those destined for exports) and conduct analysis of the potentials, prospects and challenges for transition to diversification and specialization with in the crop subsector; 3.4.4 Undertake detailed assessment of recent trends in production and productivity of major cash crops and industrial crops (with focus on coffee, tea, cotton and sugarcane) and conduct analysis of the potentials, prospects and challenges to bring a significant shift in productivity of these crops; 3.4.5 Undertake detailed assessment of recent trends in post-harvest losses and conduct analysis of future prospects for addressing this shortcoming; 3.4.6 Undertake detailed assessment of recent trends in area cultivated by major crops, high value crops as well cash and industrial crops and conduct analysis of the potentials, prospects and challenges in intensification of agricultural land to sustain increases in the production of these crops; 3.4.7 Undertake detailed assessment of recent trends in irrigation development (both small and large scale) and conduct analysis of the potentials, prospects and challenges to enhance agricultural resilience and transformation; 3.4.8 Undertake detail assessment of trends in livestock population, distribution, production, productivity and conduct analysis of the potentials, prospects and challenges of the livestock subsector; 3.4.9 Undertake detailed assessment of the situation of linkages between agriculture and industry and conduct comprehensive analysis of the potentials, prospects and challenges towards further strengthening these linkages; 3.4.10 Undertake detailed assessment of rural non-farm activities (alternative income generating activities in rural areas) and conduct analysis of potentials, prospects and challenges for addressing underemployment, curbing rural-urban migration, strengthening rural-urban linkages and enhancing rural transformation; 3.4.11 Set baselines and targets on key overarching indicators of agricultural performance (both crops & livestock) to conduct projections for the period of the perspective plan; 3.4.12 Undertake projections and conduct scenario analysis for major crops, high value crops, cash crops and industrial crops for at least the following variables (indicators): cultivated area, production, land

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3.4.13

3.4.14

3.4.15

3.4.16 3.4.17

productivity, labor productivity and employed population. This needs to be done for the following categories of operators in crop production: private small holder farmers and commercial farmers; Undertake projections and conduct scenario analysis for livestock subsector for the following variables (indicators): livestock population, production & productivity for selected livestock products (meat, milk and honey), labor productivity and employed population. This needs to be done for the following categories of operators in livestock production: private small holder farmers and commercial farmers; Review and document relevant country experiences, specifically experience of the emerging South East Asian economies. Indicate lessons that we can draw and adopt and what we should do differently to bring about a significant shift in agricultural production (major crops and livestock); Assess the institutional and organizational capacity in the agriculture and rural transformation in terms of coordination, policy making process and strategy design and recommend measures to address capacity gaps; Put forward appropriate recommendations (policy, institutional) on how to achieve the set targets that would feed into the perspective plan; and Impart knowledge and experience to build in-house technical capacity by working closely with NPC staff.

3.5. Human Resource Specialist The major tasks of Human Resource Specialist (Labor Economist) include but not limited to the following: 3.5.1 Review relevant existing policies , strategies and other program documents such as those on education and training policies, Health and nutrition policies and strategies, Capacity Building and Civil Service Reform Programs, Science and Technology Policies and Strategies, etc) as well as plan performance reports in order to conduct comprehensive situation analysis; 3.5.2 Undertake detailed assessment of recent trends (annual) in enrolments at primary, secondary and tertiary (university) levels and prospects and challenges to expand enrollment at secondary and tertiary; 3.5.3 Undertake detailed assessment of recent trends in the supply of low to medium skill level human power from TVETs and other training institutions and conduct analysis of the prospects and challenges in meeting the human power requirements of small, medium and large scale businesses. Specifically conduct analysis of the situation of skill mismatches between the skill level that private business needs and what the labor market supplies through TVETs; 3.5.4 Undertake detailed assessment of recent trends in the supply of high skill human power from higher education institutions (both private and public) and conduct analysis of the prospects and challenges in supplying high quality human power that would meet the requirement of local industries and the public sector as well; 3.5.5 Undertake detailed assessment of recent trends in the demand for human power by institutions (private sector including self-employment, public sector including general government, NGOs/CSOs, etc.) and conduct analysis on the prospects of absorbing the labor force by the private (including selfemployment) relative to the public sector (general government and public enterprises); 3.5.6 Undertake detailed assessment of the trends in the labor force, employment, unemployment and conduct analysis of the potentials, prospects and challenges of expanding employment through the private sector; 3.5.7 Undertake detailed assessment of the trends in structural changes from the perspective of employments (with focus on shifts from agriculture to manufacturing) and conduct analysis of the challenges of structural changes from the perspective of employment; 3.5.8 Conduct review of recent developments towards linking human resource development with technological capacity building for enhancing quality, productivity and competitiveness across the economy via the kaizen system; 3.5.9 Conduct analysis on Ethiopia’s prospects and challenges for reaping the demographic dividend given the on-going effort to expand TVETs; Page 6 of 12

3.5.10 Set baselines and targets to undertake projections on demand and supply of human power and conduct scenario analysis on how to meet the targets under different scenarios; 3.5.11 Set baselines and targets to undertake projections for economically active population, labor force, employment and unemployment (at national, rural, urban levels) and conduct scenario analysis on how the unemployed labor force will be absorbed by the private sector based on relevant assumptions; 3.5.12 Review and document relevant country experiences, specifically experience of the emerging South East Asian economies pertaining to human resource development. Indicate lessons that we can draw and adopt and what we should do differently to speed up human resource transformation; 3.5.13 Assess the institutional and organizational capacity in terms of coordination, policy making process and strategy design for human resource development and recommend measures that are pro-active and forward looking; 3.5.14 Put forward appropriate recommendations (policy, institutional) on how to achieve the set targets that would feed into the perspective plan; and 3.5.15 Impart knowledge and experience to build in-house technical capacity by working closely with NPC staff. 3.6. Transport Economist The major tasks of the transport economist include the following: 3.6.1 Undertake a comprehensive assessment of the policy and strategy landscape of the transport sector (both infrastructure and services) with focus on roads and rail transport through critically reviewing relevant existing documents: national polices, strategies and programs as well as performance reports with respect to the transport sector (infrastructure development and services); 3.6.2 Undertake comprehensive assessment of the status of roads infrastructure developments constructed by federal government, regional states and communities as well as by type such as urban/rural, asphalt/gravel and prospects and challenges in roads infrastructure expansion; 3.6.3 Undertake a comprehensive assessment of the hither to environmental impact of roads infrastructure expansion and conduct analysis of the environmental challenges of transport infrastructure expansion; 3.6.4 Undertake a comprehensive assessment of the status of roads transport services, quality of services, roads safety & safety standards; 3.6.5 Undertake a comprehensive assessment of the status of the currently functional multimodal transport system, its prospects and challenges; 3.6.6 Undertake comprehensive assessment of the status of railways infrastructure development, recent developments in rail ways construction, prospects and challenges in the expansion of rail ways infrastructure; 3.6.7 Undertake a comprehensive assessment of the status of rail ways services, its potential and prospects and challenges in providing cross-country and urban railways services; 3.6.8 Undertake comprehensive assessment of the status of intermediate (non-motorized) transport services in rural and urban areas, its potential for rural transformation and strengthening rural-urban linkages, prospects and challenges for its expansion in rural areas and semi-urban areas; 3.6.9 Undertake a comprehensive assessment of the status of coordination among the various modes of transportation and conduct analysis on the need for coordination, prospects and challenges; 3.6.10 Set appropriate baselines and targets to undertake roads infrastructure development demand and supply projections and conduct scenario analysis making use of reasonable assumptions on access , quality and safety standards; 3.6.11 Set appropriate baselines and targets to undertake railways infrastructure development demand and supply projections and conduct scenario analysis making use of reasonable assumptions on access, quality and safety standards; 3.6.12 Set appropriate baselines and targets to undertake projections on demand and supply of volume of public and freight transport services for roads and conduct scenario analysis making use of reasonable assumptions on the growth of the various categories vehicles (supply side) and on growth and expansion Page 7 of 12

3.6.13

3.6.14 3.6.15 3.6.16 3.6.17

3.6.18 3.6.19 3.6.20 3.6.21

of the productive sector(agriculture and industry) of the economy ( on the demand side) as well as population growth and expansion of urbanization; Set appropriate baselines and targets to undertake projections on the demand and supply of the volume of services (both freight and public) for rail ways and conduct scenario analysis making use of reasonable assumptions on overall socioeconomic development (including urbanization and industrial expansion) with particular focus on the growth of volume of exports and imports; Undertake projections on roads expansion financing needs and conduct scenario analysis making use of reasonable assumptions on sources of financing and how financing gaps would be bridged; Undertake projections on railways expansion financing needs and conduct scenario analysis making use of reasonable assumptions on sources of financing and how financing gaps would be bridged; Identify potential areas for public private partnership (PPP) in roads and railways infrastructure development and financing; Review relevant country experiences, specifically experiences of emerging South East Asian economies pertaining to transport sector development and how they met their transport demand as well as financing needs; Assess institutional and organizational capacity (both public and private) in the transport sector and recommend appropriate strategies to build implementation capacity for roads and railways projects ; Conduct review of the existing overall transport system and evaluate the transport network and indicate mechanisms to improve and develop the transportation system of the country; Put forward appropriate recommendations (policy, institutional and technological) that would feed into the perspective plan; and Impart knowledge and experience by working closely with NPC core staff to build in-house technical capacity within the NPC.

IV. EXPECTED OUTPUTS / DELIVERABLES The expected outputs or deliverables are six independent study reports on the six thematic areas: namely 1. Study report on Ethiopian macroeconomic framework 2. Study repot on energy sector 3. Study repot on industrial sector 4. Study repot on agriculture sector 5. Study repot on humans resources; and 6. Study repot on transport sector V. METHODOLOGY / APPROACH OF THE SERVICE (WORK) These studies require standard modelling/forecasting techniques. Using quantitative and qualitative data, plausible assumptions and methodologies are expected to be used in forecasting the targets in each sector. VI. LOCATION, DURATION AND TIMEFRAME OF THE WORK /DELIVERABLES/OUTPUT These studies are expected to be completed within a maximum period of three months or about 66 working days. Adequate technical consultations and interfacing with the National Planning Commission is required to enhance the quality of the studies. No. Deliverables Implementing Location and Action Duration (approx.) Partners (IP) to be Undertaken 1 Inception report, with detailed NPC and UNDP Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Within 7 working methodology and proposed outline of days after contract final report signed 2 First draft report NPC and UNDP Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 50 working days after contract signed 3 Final report NPC and UNDP Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 66 working days Page 8 of 12

No.

Deliverables

Implementing Partners (IP)

Location and Action to be Undertaken

Duration (approx.) after contract signed 66 working days

T o t a l W o r k i n g Days VII. INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENT / REPORTING RELATIONSHIPS This consultancy assignment will be jointly managed and supervised by the National Planning Commission (NPC) and UNDP. In addition, the NPC will provide technical advice and support at each stage of the study, appraise methodology and technical approaches of study, review draft study paper and provide feedbacks/comments, and approve the final outcomes of the study. The study will also be enriched by comments from the NPC, relevant institutions and stakeholders including UNDP.

VIII. PAYMENT MILESTONES AND AUTHORITY Prospective Service Provider will indicate the cost of services for each deliverable in US dollars when applying for this consultancy. The Proposer will be paid only after approving authority confirms the successful completion of each deliverable as stipulated hereunder. In accordance with UNDP rules, the lump sum contract amount to be offered should consider the professional fee inclusive of travel, living allowances, communications, taxes, out of pocket expenses, and other ancillary costs. A winning Proposer shall then be paid the lump sum contract amount upon certification of the completed tasks satisfactorily, as per the following payment schedule: Payment Deliverables or Documents to be Delivered Approval should Percentage Schedule be obtained from: of Payment 1st Installment Upon submission and endorsement of inception UNDP/NPC 20% report with detailed methodology and outline of report for each sector nd 2 Installment Upon submission and endorsement of six first draft “ 30% reports 3rd Installment Upon submission and endorsement of six final “ 50% reports IX. MINIMUM ORGANIZATION AND CONSULTANCY TASK FORCE REQUIREMENTS 9.1 Minimum Organization Requirements The prospective Service Provider is expected to meet the following minimum requirements:  It must have at least 10 years of practical experience in economic and policy research, planning and modeling, preferably have a lot of engagements with emerging economies in similar works in South East Asia;  Knowledge of economy wide modeling and/or sectoral forecasting techniques experience working with emerging economies;  Capability to deploy strong quantitative and analytical skills;  Capability to deploy good report writing skills;  It must have experience in South Asian economies and similar experience in Africa is desirable; and  It shall demonstrate its capabilities, understanding of the TOR, and methodology. The multi-disciplinary team should comprise members with the following educational qualifications and experience: 9.2 Qualification and Experience Required 9.2.1 Qualification and professional experience required for macroeconomist and Team Leader a) Academic qualification

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PhD in macroeconomic policy analysis, econometrics, forecasting/modeling, development economics and related disciplines; b) Experience:  High level of analytical capacity and extensive experience and knowledge in development planning and forecasting techniques is a key requirement;  Solid background in quantitative methods, understanding of macroeconomic issues and econometric methods, macroeconomic modeling and national accounting principles is also a key requirement;  Minimum of 10 years of professional experience in the areas of macroeconomics policy analysis, management, planning and forecasting;  Proven record and expertise in rigorous planning in the developing country context;  Demonstrated experience in macroeconomic policy and institutional analysis as it relates to development planning;  Adequate knowledge of the socioeconomic landscape and current dynamics of the Ethiopian economy in terms of policy environment, performance and challenges; and  Excellent English language and report writing skills. 9.2.2 Qualification and professional experience required for energy specialist a) Academic qualification  PhD in Energy Economics or related fields. b) Experience:  High level of analytical skills in Energy economics and energy infrastructure development is a key requirement;  Minimum of 10 years of professional experience in the areas of Energy infrastructure expansion and development;  Proven record and expertise in rigorous infrastructure planning in the developing country context;  Demonstrated experience in economic policy and institutional analysis as it relates to economic development planning;  Adequate knowledge of Ethiopia’s energy infrastructure conditions and its challenges; and  Excellent English language and report writing skills 9.2.3 Qualification and professional experience required for industrial economist a) Academic qualification  PhD in industrial economics, development economics, indusial zones/special economic zones development specialist or specialist related fields. b) Experience:  High level of analytical and quantitative and qualitative skills in industrial development strategy and policy is a key requirement;  Minimum of 10 years of professional experience in the areas of industrial development; particularly in light industry experience;  Proven record and expertise in rigorous industrial development planning in the developing country context;  Demonstrated experience in economic policy and institutional analysis as it relates to development planning for industrial development in a developing country context;  Adequate knowledge of Ethiopia’s industrial land scape with focus on manufacturing industries and its challenges; and  Excellent English language and report writing skills 9.2.4 Qualification and professional experience required for agricultural economist a) Academic qualification  PhD in agricultural economics/economics and related disciplines. b) Experience 

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High level of analytical and quantitative and qualitative skills in agricultural development policy and strategy is a key requirement;  Minimum of 10 years of professional experience in the areas of agricultural development;  Proven record and expertise in rigorous agricultural development planning in the developing country context;  Demonstrated experience in economic policy and institutional analysis as it relates to development planning for agricultural development and rural transformation in a developing country context;  Adequate knowledge of Ethiopia’s agricultural development and policy land scape; and  Excellent English language and report writing skills. 9.2.5 Qualification and professional experience required for labor economist a) Academic qualification:  PhD in labor economics, human resource economics, manpower planning, development economics and related disciplines. b) Experience:  High level of analytical skills in Human resource development is a key requirement;  Minimum of 10 years of professional experience in the areas of human resource development;  Proven record and expertise in rigorous human resource planning in the developing country context;  Demonstrated experience in economic policy and institutional analysis as it relates to economic development planning;  Adequate knowledge of Ethiopia’s human resource conditions and its challenges; and  Excellent English language and report writing skills. 9.2.6 Qualification and professional experience required for transport economist a) Academic qualification  PhD in Transport Economics or related fields. b) Experience  High level of analytical skills in Transport economics and Transport infrastructure development mainly focusing on roads and railways is a key requirement;  Minimum of 10 years of professional experience in the areas of Transport infrastructure expansion and development;  Proven record and expertise in rigorous transport infrastructure (Roads & Rail) planning in the developing country context;  Demonstrated experience in economic policy and institutional analysis as it relates to economic development planning;  Adequate knowledge of Ethiopia’s Transport infrastructure (Roads & Rail) conditions and its challenges; and  Excellent English language and report writing skills. 

9.4 Project Staff / Associate Consultants / Team Members The prospective research and/or policy institution is encouraged to deploy to work with competent national experts as deemed necessary. X. CRITERIA FOR SELECTING THE BEST OFFER Upon the advertisement of the Procurement Notice, qualified Consultancy Firm is expected to submit both the Technical and Financial Proposals. Accordingly; the firm will be evaluated based on Cumulative Analysis as per the following conditions:  Responsive/compliant/acceptable as per the Instruction to Bidders (ITB) of the Standard Bid Document (SBD), and

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Having received the highest score out of a pre-determined set of weighted technical and financial criteria specific to the solicitation. In this regard, the respective weight of the proposals are: a. Technical Criteria weight is 70% b. Financial Criteria weight is 30%

XI. LOGISTICAL SUPPORT UNDP CO will ensure that the research and/or policy institutions receive access to the ECA Compound in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. When required, the Firm will be provided with workspace either at National Planning Commission (NPC) or UNDP premises. XII. RECOMMENDED PRESENTATION OF TECHNICAL PROPOSAL For purposes of generating proposals whose contents are uniformly presented and to facilitate their comparative review, a Service Provider advised to use a proposed Table of Contents. Hence, your Technical Proposal document must have at least the preferred content as outlined in the respective RFP Proposal Submission Form. XIII. CONFIDENTIALITY AND PROPRIETARY INTERESTS The consultants shall not either during the term or after termination of the assignment, disclose any proprietary or confidential information related to the consultancy or the Government without prior written consent. Proprietary interests on all materials and documents prepared by the consultants under the assignment shall become and remain properties of UNDP. This assignment will be administrated by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), and all relevant UNDP rules, policies and procedures will apply.

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