Florida Catastrophic Planning Scenario-Based Resource Planning
Scenario-Based Resource Planning Scenario-based resource planning uses a single, plausible scenario to establish a common framework for evaluation of capabilities across a region and throughout the multiple levels of emergency management. Determining the resource needs of a single scenario is sufficiently challenging, but since real life disasters do not generally follow a plan, the formulas and calculations inherent to an effective decision-making process need to be captured. This captured process converts key steps and skills known to experienced individuals and converts them into accessible institutional knowledge. These formulas and calculations can usually be best expressed in the form of matrices that can be manipulated to provide a means of quickly determining resource needs and shortfalls for various events. In the planning stages, the information provided by the matrices allows the entire emergency management system to be analyzed for gaps. On the ground, the matrices enable rapid, informed decision-making during response. Finally, the development of the matrices highlights policy limitations for official consideration both prior to and during events. The Florida Catastrophic Planning decision matrices are intended to satisfy the requirements of the scenario and to provide a scalable, adaptable tool for emergency managers to use in the field. Ultimately, the resource requirements identified by the decision matrices will be used by many response disciplines to pre-script missions for specific areas by using the United States National Grid. Pre-scripting missions based on the scenario and the resource requirements identified in the matrices allows for a more efficient use of limited resources.
The Scenario South Florida is impacted by a Category 5 hurricane making landfall 35 miles north of Miami, producing upwards of 15 inches of rainfall in the vicinity of Lake Okeechobee. Winds and surge from the storm destroy or cause major damage to the homes of more than 70% of the population within the 10-county area most impacted by the storm. Note that this does not include the impacts to counties northwest of Lake Okeechobee where the storm exits Florida as a Category 2. Winds from the storm leave large amounts of debris in the canals used by the South Florida Water Management District to control water movement in South Florida, making it difficult or impossible to reduce flood waters impacting public services, the environment, businesses, citizens, and visitors. Flood waters are expected to remain for 22 days or more.
The Process Step 1: Assess required capabilities based on Catastrophic Scenario
This step involves analyzing the impacts of the scenario to clarify demands to answer the basic question: What do we need to do?
Example: The damage projections indicate that over one million buildings will need to be searched.
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Florida Catastrophic Planning Scenario-Based Resource Planning
Step 2: Develop methods, formulas, or matrices to answer the question: What do we need to do it?
An effective way to quantify/specify scenario-based requirements is through development of scalable and adaptable methods, formulas, or matrices that indicate the quantity and type of assets needed to meet the capability requirement.
Example: Given the need to search 1,005,526 buildings, how would the total number of search teams be determined? What are the key questions that must be asked and how does the information fit together? Can it be organized into a matrix?
Step 3: Determine available resources, answering the question: What do we already have?
Within available inventories, beginning with the local and continuing to the regional, State, interstate, and Federal/National inventories, including pre-disaster contracts. Consideration must be given to the liklihood that the catastrophic nature of the event and extreme demand for resources from multiple jurisdictions could overwhelm providers resulting in contact terms going unfulfilled.
Example: Determine how many local search and rescue personnel could be allocated to this task, given this scenario.
Step 4: Identify gaps between available and required resources, answering the question: Is what we have enough? Are our goals feasible?
Utilizing the products of Steps 1-3, this step determines the critical shortfalls that need to be addressed to ensure all levels of emergency management can appropriately respond to and recover from a given event.
Example: Determine whether currently available search and rescue personnel are sufficient to search the required number of buildings within the desired time. Evaluate whether it is feasible to complete search and rescue within that timeframe.
Step 5: Establish protocols and policies that clearly articulate how to meet required capabilities, fill gaps, and identify resource limitations, answering the question: How do we gain access to the available resources, and how do we get more?
Map the process of resource use up the chain until the established requirements are met.
Example: Establish agreements with other entities to provide the personnel needed to complete search & rescue within this time interval.
Step 6: Integrate with other scenario-based resource planning efforts
Analyze scenario-based resource allocations across functions to identify and resolve resource conflicts and/or shared policy challenges. This step idnetifies: What does this mean for the rest of the response and recovery activities?
Step 7: Sustain the planning process to facilitate updates and changes
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Florida Catastrophic Planning Scenario-Based Resource Planning
Breaking It Down The scale of the catastrophe can be intimidating. To help get the planning process started, it will be necessary to break the problem into key decision points. The following outline explains the way the Search and Rescue group approached this process.
Pick one decision point and break it down: •
Clearly identify the goal. o Complete primary search and rescue within 24 hours.
Identify the critical criteria/information needed to formulate a decision. •
Number of strike teams.
•
Number of hours per day (operational period).
•
Number of structures damaged or destroyed.
Document what you know from past experience. •
Cannot safely search at night.
•
How many workers to safely search a structure?
•
How much time to safely search a structure?
•
Deployment time (notification to operational).
Calculate, adjust, recalculate, and cross check.
Repeat as necessary. •
Don’t forget logistical support for your staff, mutual aid assets, and volunteers.
Sample Search and Rescue Matrix Through the development of the Search and Rescue Matrix (see Figure 1), using consequence figures available in February 2007, the Search and Rescue working group discovered that the Hurricane Ono scenario would require almost 54,000 searchers to meet the standard goal of completing primary search and rescue within 24 hours. Since they considered this beyond the national capacity, the matrix also allowed them to play with key factors to come up with a reasonable solution. Through this process, they determined that a catastrophic event such as this one would require revision of the standard approach. They created a more detailed matrix that classified the structures that needed to be searched into levels according to the extent of damage. When they made this change, they could then assign search personnel with various levels of expertise to specific structures, more efficiently utilizing the personnel and equipment that would be available, providing a more realistic challenge. This matrix is usually a spreadsheet created in Microsoft Excel. This allows some cells to be open to inputs by the end user. The other cells contain formulas designed to calculate the needed information.
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Florida Catastrophic Planning Scenario-Based Resource Planning
Each matrix should include instructions for use, for example:
This matrix can be used to determine the resources needed to handle search and rescue surrounding a hurricane. To use the matrix, enter the appropriate values in the scenario-specific cells. These inputs generally fall into two categories: y
Some, such as the number of structures to be searched, indicate the scale of the disaster. These input values for Hurricane Ono are included in the latest version of the Consequence Projection document, which can be found under 'Other' in the Documents section of http://www.floridadisaster.org/CatastrophicPlanning/
y
Some of the inputs are factors that determine the capacities of resources. An example might be the number of personnel needed to control an intersection or the number of hours per day a strike team can work. Values have generally been suggested for these factors, which can be used or adjusted based on the user's judgment. Once these factors have been entered in to the matrix, the resource requirements, such as the total teams needed, will be automatically calculated and displayed. Once the matrix is complete, it becomes a useful tool that can quickly calculate needed resources based on the data specific to any scenario.
Figure 1 was created using sample inputs based on the Hurricane Ono scenario.
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Florida Catastrophic Planning Scenario-Based Resource Planning Search & Rescue Needs Calculator Strike Team and Personnel Needs Calculator Strike Team Type Technical Operational Awareness
Structures per Team per 24 hrs 500 1,500 2,500
Description Technical Search & Rescue personnel Engine strike team personnel Law enforcement, national guard, citizens, etc
Structures to be Searched by Damage Type Counties
Affected
Broward Collier Glades Hendry Lee Martin Miami-Dade Monroe Okeechobee Palm Beach Total
228 89,970 491 2,956 186,612 29,002 20,990 42,174 3,022 4,847 380,292
Minor Damage 37,980 1,435 2,144 3,687 5,376 21,270 137,161 603 6,222 61,923 277,802
Major Damage 152,603 9 1,043 1,456 19 1,604 169,269 0 2,086 121,617 449,707
Destroyed
Total
Damage Type
264,584 0 1,593 3,399 0 721 192,130 0 3,076 202,538 668,041
455,395 91,414 5,271 11,498 192,007 52,597 519,550 42,777 14,406 390,925 1,775,841
Affected Minor Damage Major Damage Destroyed
Technical Operational Awareness 0% 10% 100% 10%
0% 90% 0% 0%
100% 0% 0% 0%
Personnel per Strike Team:
20
Hours for Search & Rescue:
24
Total 100% 100% 100% 10%
Structures by Strike Team Type Counties Broward Collier Glades Hendry Lee Martin Miami-Dade Monroe Okeechobee Palm Beach Total
Technical Operational Awareness Total 182,859 34,182 228 217,269 153 1,292 89,970 91,414 1,417 1,930 491 3,838 2,164 3,319 2,956 8,439 557 4,839 186,612 192,007 3,803 19,143 29,002 51,948 202,198 123,445 20,990 346,633 60 543 42,174 42,777 3,016 5,600 3,022 11,638 148,063 55,730 4,847 208,641 544,291 250,022 380,292 1,174,604
Counties Broward Collier Glades Hendry Lee Martin Miami-Dade Monroe Okeechobee Palm Beach Total
Technical Operational Awareness 366 23 0 0 1 36 3 1 0 4 2 1 1 3 75 8 13 12 404 82 8 0 0 17 6 4 1 296 37 2 1,089 167 152
Strike Teams Needed
Strike Team Personnel Needed Total 389 37 4 8 79 32 495 17 11 335 1,407
Counties Broward Collier Glades Hendry Lee Martin Miami-Dade Monroe Okeechobee Palm Beach Total
Technical Operational Awareness 7,314 456 2 6 17 720 57 26 4 87 44 24 22 65 1,493 152 255 232 8,088 1,646 168 2 7 337 121 75 24 5,923 743 39 21,772 3,334 3,042
Total 7,772 743 86 154 1,580 639 9,902 347 219 6,704 28,148
Figure 1: Search and Rescue Needs Calculator
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