Table of contents
SAS AB Result Analyst Presentation Third Quarter 2002, November 13 Stockholm, London
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9.
Summary of 3rd Quarter 2002 Result improvement measures Business area – Scandinavian Airlines Business area –Subsidiary Airlines & Affilliates Business area – Airline related Business area – Rezidor SAS Hospitality Financials Outlook 2002 Appendices
2
3rd Quarter 2002 – according to set out plan, yields and revenues under pressure 1st Quarter – weak - according to plan 2nd Quarter – according to plan – passenger load factors and yields better than expected 3rd Quarter – according to plan – yields & revenues under pressure Pressure on revenues expected for 4th Quarter Expected economic recovery delayed Restructuring charge of MSEK 600 3
11/12/2002
11/12/2002
Important events of note 3rd Quarter Rezidor SAS investing in multi-brand concept Regent, Country Inns, Park Inn
Scandinavian Airlines launches additional low price internet booking alternatives to most European cities SAS Flight Support to acquire ASG –name change to European Aeronautical Group Scandinavian Airlines structural improvement measures – Verification process completed – Increased target to MSEK 6 400 (4 000) – Restructuring charge of MSEK 600 Q4
4
11/12/2002
Increased transparency through five Business Areas
($7 500 million)
5
11/12/2002
The SAS Group Investor Relations Tel. +46 (0) 8 797 1451 Fax: +46 (0)8 797 5110 e-mail:
[email protected] --- Homepage: www.scandinavian.net -- Results Jan -Sep 2002
Record cabin factors but pressure on yields in Scandinavian Airlines Total traffic increased by 32,2% vs. Q3 2001 – Group passenger load factors at record levels Scandinavian Airlines Braathens Spanair
+ 4,0 p.u. + 9,0 p.u. + 3,6 p.u.
72,2% 63,6% 68,5%
Yields mixed Scandinavian Airlines Spanair Braathens
Significant uplift in 2nd and 3rd Quarter compared with 1st Quarter 2002 Summary of income statement (MSEK) Actual Q1
Actual Q2
Actual Q3
JanJan-Sep 02
13 775 -13 191
17 868 -14 620
16 592 -14 462
48 235 -42 273
EBITDAR-marginal
4,2%
18,2%
12,8%
12,4%
Operating lease cost external EBITDA
-878
-1 050
-932
-2 860
-294
2 198
1 198
3 102
-328 -651 -133 -1 406 -40
-12 -715 -141 1 354 -291
3 -781 625 1 041 -405
-337 -2 147 351 989 -736
-1 446
1 039
640
233
-1 313
1 180
15
-118
Operating revenues Operating costs EBITDAR
584
Contr from affiliated Depreciation Gain on sales EBIT Net financial items EBT
-2% +26% +/- 0%
EBT bef gains
7
11/12/2002
8
JanJan-Sep 2002
JanJan-Sep 2001
48 235 989 233 -118
38 623 27 7 -202
Revenue EBIT EBT EBT excl. cap gains
EBITDAR significantly stronger 3rd Quarter 2002 compared with 2001
EBITDAR MSEK million 3 500 3 000 2 500 2 000 1 500 1 000
0 -500
Q1
Q2 2001
11/12/2002
EBITDAR up 81% 9m EBITDAR margin up, but CFROI unchanged as capital increase
EBT bef gains MSEK million
MSEK 1180
1 000 500 142
15
0 -500
-421
-1 000 -1 500
Q4
10
SAS Group 2002 – EBT
77
Q3
EBITDAR 3rd quarter: – Positively affected by Braathens of 428 MSEK – Spanair of 541 MSEK – Widerøe 95 MSEK – Air Botnia 58 MSEK
2002
11/12/2002
1 500
2002 2002
2001
Change
Revenue
48 235
38 623
25%
EBITDAR
5 962
3 290
+81%
EBITDAR margin
12%
7%
+5 p.u.
CFROI
13%
13%
0 p.u.
-1313
Q1
Q2 2001 11
5 962
11/12/2002
500
9
2 130
SAS Group 2001/2002 EBITDAR – operating performance improved
Jan-Sep 2002 vs 2001 MSEK
3 248
Q3 2002 11/12/2002
12
11/12/2002
The SAS Group Investor Relations Tel. +46 (0) 8 797 1451 Fax: +46 (0)8 797 5110 e-mail:
[email protected] --- Homepage: www.scandinavian.net -- Results Jan -Sep 2002
Revenues driven by acquisitions EBITDAR up 81% in MSEK
+ 25%
in MSEK
48 235
+81%
38 623
5 962
3 290
2001
2002
2001
2002
EBITDAR
Total Revenues 13
11/12/2002
14
11/12/2002
Target to reduce unit costs in Scandinavian Airlines by 20% by 2004 Scandinavian Airlines 15
Lufthansa Euro Cents/ASK
Group improvement measures
Braathens 10
British Airways Air France
Spanair
Austrian Airlines
Iberia
KLM
Low Cost Segment 5 600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 800
2 000
Average Stage Length (Kms)
15
11/12/2002
Structural improvement measures increased from 4 000 MSEK to 6 400 MSEK Distrubution of effects (net): 6 400 MSEK
7000 6000 5000
16
11/12/2002
The SAS Group’ improvement measures target increased to SEK 12,8 billion Short term measures = MSEK app. 6 400 (2002/03)
2003: 3 000 MSEK 2004: 5 500 MSEK 2005: 6 400 MSEK
Structural measures = MSEK app. 6 400 (2004/05)
Of which is revenue effect:
Target when fully implemented 2004/05 Reduce unit costs by 20% in Scandinavian Airlines Significantly improved cabin factors Enable Scandinavian Airlines to manage lower prices
4 000 MSEK
4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Structural improvements
Identified structural improvements
Spring 2002 identified structural measures
November 2002 Increased and identified structural measures 17
2003: 600 MSEK 2004: 1 300 MSEK 2005: 1 600 MSEK
11/12/2002
18
11/12/2002
The SAS Group Investor Relations Tel. +46 (0) 8 797 1451 Fax: +46 (0)8 797 5110 e-mail:
[email protected] --- Homepage: www.scandinavian.net -- Results Jan -Sep 2002
Structural measures 5 areas of focus
Why will we succeed this time?
Nytt koncept
Nytt koncept
ALF WAW
AMS
ZRH
AG H
TRD AMS
BRU
VNOVXO
ARN
DUS
DUB F CO
EW R
EVE
DUS
SVO SVG
KRN
NCE
M XP MM X
LLA
LIN
L HR
CGN DEL
EWR
P MI
FCO FRA
EVE
AMS
BRU
CDG CPH DUB DUS EWR FCO FRA GOT
STN
GVA
SFT
HAM
SDL
HEL
RNB
KID
ZRH WAWWRO VXO VST V NO VIE TRF TRD TLV
SAS direc t sal es mark-up
AAL
S VO
LED NCE
MXP MM X
LLA
LIN
LHR
BRU
SV G
BUD
STR
CD G
STN S FJ
CGN DEL
– Strong top management commitment – Everything on plan so far
DUB DUS
PO Z
EWR
PM I
FCO
PEK
FRA
O SL
SAS Price
KSD OER
AAR A GPALC AM S A RN BCN BGO B HX BKK B LQ
S EA PR G
35 000 33 000
KRN
ORD
4/ 7 %
37 000
KLR
OSD
Agent mark-up possibili ty
GD N G OT GVA HAJ HAM HEL IAD J KG KRKKGD LEDKSD
G DN
ORD O RB
G OT GVA
NRT NR K NC E MXP M UC MAN M AD LIN LHR
H AJ HAM H EL IAD JK G KG D KR K LEDK SD
A 01
A 02
FEB
JAN
JUL
SEP
DEC
NOV
AUG
OKT
JUN
MAJ
APR
MAR
FEB
JAN
SEP
JUL
DEC
NOV
OKT
JUN
AUG
MAJ
29 000
APR
31 000
MAR
1600
EWR
O SL
Today Tomorrow
L ED
DUB D US
POZ
AGH
TM P TLL
SVO
DUS FCO
CDG
ORD ORB NRT NRK NCE MXP M UC M AN M ADLIN LHR
DUB FRA
BRU BUD
STN
OSL
CPH GOT
KSD OER
AAR AG P ALC AM S ARN BCN B GO BHX BKK BLQ
SFJ
PEK
CDG
HAU
KID KLR
SEA PRG
MSEK
F1 0 2
1300
1200
1200
1100
• Short term 2003 • Structural 2004/05
Revenue enhancement
Healthy internal competition – If you deliver you expand!
Distribution & Sales
19
11/12/2002
20
Scandinavian Airlines
Changes in production concept MSEK 1 600 in savings New production philosophy = Restructuring and improving aircraft rotations Point to point rotation up from 40% to 95% Improved aircraft utilization rates – ABH/ Block hour up from 7,5 to 9 9 hrs. – Legs/ a/c up Improved capacity utilization – +5 p.u. on average Aircraft turn around by 5-10 min Utilize peak/ off peak for maintenance etc. Aircraft/ crew overnights reduced to minimum Pilot hours up from less than 500 hrs to 600hrs per annum
Reduced peaks in Copenhagen hub will affect productivity positively
Nytt koncept AES TRD
ALC
TOS
ALF
SVG
AMS
NCE
W AW VXO
ARN
ZRH
AGH
AMS
BRU
CDG
VNO
DUB
TXL
BGO BOO
CPH
UME
BDU
MAN LHR
DUS
TMP
BRU
KKN
CDG
HAU
CPH GOT
DUB FRA
- Blue line current movements
EW R
TLL
FCO
TKU
KRS
FRA
SVO
GOT
STN
GVA
SFT
HAM
SDL
HEL
DUS FCO
EVE
RNB
KI D
Departures
EW R OSL
KLR
OSD
KRN
ORD
WROZRH WAW VXO VST VNO VIE TRF TRD TLV
KSD OER
AAL
SVO SVG
LED NCE
AAR AGPALC AMS ARN BCN BGO BHX BKK BLQ
MXP MMX
LLA
LIN
LHR
- Grey area new schedule
BRU BUD
STR
CDG
STN
CGN
SFJ
DEL
SEA
DUB
PRG
DUS
POZ
EWR
PMI
ORD ORB NRT NRK NCE MXP MUC MAN MAD
Arrivals
FCO
PEK OSL
FRA GDN
LINLHR
GOT GVA HAJ HAM HEL IAD JKG KGD LEDKSDKRK
11/12/2002
A 01
Legs //ac ac/ ac/day Aircraft night stops
6,70 800
23
11/12/2002
A 02
DEC
JUL
SEP
OKT
AUG
NOV
FEB
JUN
JAN
APR
MAJ
DEC
NOV
29 000
MAR
+2,5% +60%
31 000
JUL
6,87 500
33 000
SEP
+13%
35 000
OKT
600
37 000
JUN
Change _ +20%
AUG
ShortShort-term target 2003/04 600
Reduction Overhead Support & Administration –MSEK 1 200 in savings effect as from 2003
FEB
Scandinavian Airlines
Significant flight crew and a/c productivity improvements in pipeline 2002-2003 Cockpit crew utilization 490 (BLH/pilot/year) Cabin Crew utilization 530
11/12/2002
Total savings in Ground Services by MSEK 600
MX P
21
Current
Increased transparency New competitive arena externally
Ground & Technical Services
JAN
(ROSA)
New commercial strategies
APR
Management & Administration
MAJ
Production concept
MAR
1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0
BOO BRU
KKN
HEL
RNB
ZRH
TXL
BGO
KRS
GVA HAM
SDL
AW
VNO UME
BDU
TKU
GOT
SFT
ORD
STR
VXOW
ARN
LHR
F RA
STN
OSL
AA L
M AN
F CO
T KU SVO
OSD
WROZRH WAW VXO VST VNO VIE TRF TRD TLV
AM S
MXP
EW R
T LL
BOO
CPH GOT
ALF
NCE
DUB
T XL T MP
BGO
BRU CDG
HAU
ALC
TOS SVG
CDGCPH
UM E
BDU
KKN
F RA
Most ambitious improvement measures ever introduced in pipeline
AES
ALC
KRS
SAS Price
AES
LHR
SAS Price
T RD T OS SVG NCE MXP M AN
F1 02
Personnel
reductions well according to plan Reduction of 900 full time employees by end 2005
24
Achieved: 32% reduction in administrative costs and personnel in group functions, business units and Scandinavian Airlines Reduced ambition levels Productivity improvements
11/12/2002
The SAS Group Investor Relations Tel. +46 (0) 8 797 1451 Fax: +46 (0)8 797 5110 e-mail:
[email protected] --- Homepage: www.scandinavian.net -- Results Jan -Sep 2002
Short term measures redundancies
Structural measures redundancies
200 700
3000
Completed/agreed
2500 1500
3 500
In process
2700
2000
1500
1500 500
200 200
Estimated redundancies fall 2001
Redundanci es Rest of Group
Halted Planned Expansion
Effect during 2002
Employees In other activities
Affect Transferred achieved to structural through other act
25
0
TOTAL
Adm.
11/12/2002
Total group short term measures (Gross 2003 full year effect)
Network reductions Revenue enhancements1) Cost reductions
200 Producing units
20032004 11/12/2002
Status improvement programs
MSEK 6 400
Result effects
Pilots
26
Subsidiaries & affiliates MSEK 1 300 Scandinavian Airlines MSEK 5 100
Distribution: 1st Quarter 200-300 2nd Quarter 300-400 3rd Quarter 400-500 4th Quarter 600-700
300
500
Will be effectuated In 2003
Status Group short term Result Improvement measures 2002/2003
Whereas
700
1000
200
MSEK 500 MSEK 2 200 MSEK 2 400
Gross full year effect
JanJan-Sep 2002
500 2 200 2 400 1 300 Approx. 6 400
375 *) 1 000 700 2 075
Short term measures Reductions in traffic system Revenue enhancement Cost reductions Other business areas than SK Total
*) = Revenue enhancements comprising a supplementary charge of USD 4/passenger/flight/and a general price increase of 5% are neutralized to a considerable extent by a negative passenger mix and higher insurance costs.
2003
MSEK 2400
Structural measures
2002
MSEK 1700
Total
TOTAL ALL MEASURES
Approx. 6 400
0
Approx. 12 800
2 075
1) Price increase of 5% nominal and
introduction of surcharge of 4 USD/ pax/leg Offset by increased insurance cost, security costs and negative mix
27
11/12/2002
28
11/12/2002
EBITDAR per business area Business area
January - September 2002 2001 +2 652 +2 230 +2 694 +351 +370 +506 +165 +203 +81 0 +5 962 +3 290
Scandinavian Airlines Subsidiary & aff. Airlines Airline Related Businesses Rezidor SAS Hospitality* Group eliminations* EBITDAR * = Including leasing cost
29
11/12/2002
30
11/12/2002
The SAS Group Investor Relations Tel. +46 (0) 8 797 1451 Fax: +46 (0)8 797 5110 e-mail:
[email protected] --- Homepage: www.scandinavian.net -- Results Jan -Sep 2002
Earnings before taxes – EBT Bef cap. gains
January - September 2002 2001 -749 -552 +374 +86 +77 +183 +98 +81 +82 0 -118 -202
11/12/2002
32
Scandinavian Airlines
2002 vs 2001
8 052 +758
8 383 +480
25 399 2 652
25 801 2 230
Net financials
-316
43
-613
47
EBT EBT bef gains
192 -431
-294 -501
-377 -749
-350 -552
Scandinavian Airlines
1,0% 4,0 p.u. 2,1%
Unit costs
down
0,3%
11/12/2002
Scandinavian Airlines
SK (Geograpical Europe)
65
AEA (Geograpical Europe)
60
Average gap Scandinavian Airlines vs AEA 5 p.u. in 2001
55 50
Month 2001
37
34
31
22
19
16
45 13
96 98 102 106 128 103
4
99 101 101 104 130 102
11/12/2002
70
7
Intercontinental Europe Intrascandinavian Denmark/Greenland Norway Sweden
2,6%
75
10
98
1
98
Pass load factor (%)
Scandinavian Airline
up
80
n Ap r Ju l O ct
Adjusted yield Jan-Sep
down 0,6% Up 2,8 p.u. down 2,3%
Scandinavian Airlines passenger load factors close to AEA average
Ja
Adjusted yield Q3
35
down up down
34
3rd Quarter 2002 vs 2001 Route Sector
Traffic growth (RPK) Cabin Factor Yields
11/12/2002
Passenger Yield
JanJan-Sep
JulJul-Sep
JulyJuly-September January – September 2002 2001 2002 2001 2002
33
Scandinavian Airlines
Scandinavian Aielines key airline profitability drivers
Turnaround in Scandinavian Airlines underway, but challenges lay ahead Passenger revenues EBITDAR
11/12/2002
28
31
Scandinavian Airlines
25
Scandinavian Airlines Subsidiary & aff. Airlines Airline Related Businesses Rezidor SAS Hospitality Group eliminations EBT bef. gains
Source: AEA
Week 2002
36
11/12/2002
The SAS Group Investor Relations Tel. +46 (0) 8 797 1451 Fax: +46 (0)8 797 5110 e-mail:
[email protected] --- Homepage: www.scandinavian.net -- Results Jan -Sep 2002
Month
Source: AEA, SAS
Cabin factor improved significantly in Q2 Seasonal effect in Jan, Feb Week 01-week 39: – AEA traffic down 3,8% – SAS traffic up 0,5%
RPK
15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 39
33
30
SAS
Week
36
21
24
27
15
18
9
12
6
3
52
49
46
37
43
40
-20
AEA
Cabin factor (%) Europe
11/12/2002
39
30
21
33 36
Ju ly Au g Se ust pt em be r
ay
Ju ne
European routes Continued fall in Business Class – the challenge of Scandinavian Airlines Scandinavian Airlines
20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% 02-sep
02-jul
May02
March
January
November
September
July
May
Marsh
-40%
January
75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40%
– AEA traffic down 3,1% – SAS traffic up 20,6%
Month 38
Scandinavian Airlines
Scandinavian Airlines ranked high in customer surveys New capacity incremental growth in RPK
Stable cabin factors Week 01-week 39:
11/12/2002
European routes – strong load factors, but adverse mix 20
AEA
95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70%
Source: AEA, SAS 37
SAS
Cabin factor (%) Asia
M
Au gu st Se pt em be r
e
Ju ly
Ju n
Ap r il
N ov em be r D ec em be r Ja nu ar y Fe br ua ry M ar ch
95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60%
30 25
18
Week
Week 01-week 39: – European airlines (AEA) traffic down 11,7% – SAS traffic up 14,5%
Cabin factor (%) North Atlantic
24 27
AEA
15
39
27
31
SAS
Ap ri l
Week
35
19
23
7
11
15
3
47
43
51
39
35
-100
9 12
-50
RPK
10 0 -10 -20 -30
3
0
6
50
52
100
Strong performance on Asian routes 50 40 30 20
46 49
Airbus A340 introduced on New York and Chicago from Copenhagen – Strong load factors during summer
RPK
N ov em be D r ec em be Ja r nu ar y Fe br ua ry M ar ch
150
Scandinavian Airlines
35
200
Scandinavian Airlines
40 43
Recovery on North Atlantic traffic
Still negative mix compared with very weak October 01 Slowdown accelerated after September11 Total traffic Q3 –6,7%
Source: AEA, SAS
Au g Se ust pt em be r
Ju ly
M ay
Ju ne
pr il A
N
ov em be D r ec em be Ja r nu ar y Fe br ua ry M ar ch
Business Class (RPK vs Last year) Europe
Month 39
11/12/2002
40
Scandinavian Airlines
Yield development in Europe 2002
Contingency plan in case of Iraq war
High cyclical pattern Pressure on yield Easy comparables Sep 02 10% 5% Europe
0% 2 per. Mov. Avg. (Europe)
-5%
11/12/2002
Implementation of plan as soon as conflicts start or when an escalation affect demand significantly Base case 10-15% capacity reduction Plan can be escalated in additional steps if market conditions weakens further Short lead times for reinstalling of capacity ASK 0,0%
Case1
Case 2
Case 3
-5,0% -10,0%
-10%
-15,0% -20,0%
-15%
-25,0%
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
41
jul
Aug
Sep
11/12/2002
-30,0%
42
11/12/2002
The SAS Group Investor Relations Tel. +46 (0) 8 797 1451 Fax: +46 (0)8 797 5110 e-mail:
[email protected] --- Homepage: www.scandinavian.net -- Results Jan -Sep 2002
Significant reduction in capacity to continue in 2003 for Scandinavian Airlines
New competitors has entered the marketplace Small low cost carrier on Norwegian domestic New player in Sweden – Swedish domestic from Oct02 The Group takes threat seriously Key competitive advantages Many frequencies, higher service levels, corporate accounts and strong network Main strategy for low cost competition
Expected 2002 ASK Domestic incl intrascan Europe
-9%/9%/-13%
+5% +1%
Intercontinental
+11%/+11%/-8%
+13% +7%
Total
-4% / -10%
+1% -10%
44
November 01
Number of aircraft
153
199
46
11/12/2002
Scandinavian Airlines
Yields under pressure 3rd Quarter
Yields down 2,2% in 3rd Quarter 2002
2% 1%
– Class mix negative – Campaigns – More RPK’s of intercontinental traffic with lower yield
0%
+1.4% - 0.6% - 2.3%
45
Summer 03
2001-3rd Quarter 2002 Total system - currency adjusted
Revenues 25 399 MSEK (-1,6%)
-1% -2% -3% -4%
Price Class mix Other mix
Single trips
-17% -18%
11/12/2002
Passenger revenues mainly affected by yield and currency Jan-Sep 2002
currency volumes yields
ASK
-13%/ -9%
• Phase out of 8 DC9’s • Leased out 4 Boeing 737-800 and 3 MD 80's • 13 aircraft are fully depreciated Fokker 50 and Fokker 28's. • Remaining 18 aircraft (3 Boeing 767) will be sold or leased out
Scandinavian Airlines
Whereas
Plan 2003
Single trips
Surplus of aircraft summer 2003
Reduce costs Price differentiation –internet sales Retain competitive advantages Use of other group companies with lower costs 43
Reduction in capacity since 2001 -4% in 2002 vs 2001 +1% in 2003 vs 2002
+6,1% -3,8% -1,6%
-5% -6%
3rd Quarter 2001
4th Quarter 2001
1st Quarter 2002
2nd Quarter 2002
11/12/2002
3rd Quarter 2002
46
Trend with increasing unit cost broken in 2nd and 3rd Quarter as improvement measures start to give effect
11/12/2002
Scandinavian Airlines
Index last year (currency adjusted)
After a period of increases units costs are down in spite of weaker volumes (ASK)
10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% -4%
1st 2nd Quarter Quarter 2001 2001
3rd Q 2001
4th Q 2001
1st Q 2002
2nd Q 2002
3rd Q 2002
47
11/12/2002
Scandinavian Airlines
Unit Cost continued down in 3rd Quarter Index last year (currency adjusted) 9,0% 8,0% 7,0% 6,0% 5,0% 4,0% 3,0% 2,0% 1,0% 0,0% -1,0%
In spite of capacity reductions Unit Cost down 0,3% 3rd Quarter 2002 Unit Cost up 2,3% Jan-Sep 2002
1st Quarter
2nd Quarter 2002
3rd Quarter
48
11/12/2002
The SAS Group Investor Relations Tel. +46 (0) 8 797 1451 Fax: +46 (0)8 797 5110 e-mail:
[email protected] --- Homepage: www.scandinavian.net -- Results Jan -Sep 2002
Scandinavian Airlines
Scandinavian Airlines
ECA –European cooperation agreement continued negative effects
All government insurance guarantees seized August 1, 2002 Government guarantees in place until June 30nd 2002 Danish Guarantee extended until July 31 As from August 1 all SAS aircraft insured in the commercial insurance market
Tri-party Joint Venture agreement with BMI, Lufthansa and SAS signed November 9, 1999 In effect from January 1, 2000 Main scope: To integrate the parties scheduled pass. transport to/ from London/ Manchester Negative result effect 2001: MSEK 335 Effect Q1 2002 - MSEK 113 Effect Q2 2002 -MSEK 104 Effect Q3 2002 – MSEK 86
– Costs neutral compared with guarantees
Total insurance costs 8-10 times higher than prior to Sep 11 49
11/12/2002
50
Current outlook 2002 lowered by MSEK 200 vs 2nd Quarter Scandinavian Airlines
Brent Crude vs. Jet Fuel January 1998 - October 2002
60
450 400
Brent 1st Nearby Close
50
350 300 250 30 200 20
150
US Dollar per Metric Ton
Jet CIF Cargoes NWE 40
US Dollar per Barrel
11/12/2002
Average rates: 2000 2001 Q1 2002 Q2 2002 Q3 2002
270 USD/MT 255 USD/MT 189 USD/MT 224 USD/MT 233 USD/MT
100 10
Current hedging ratio Next 12 months Hedging until year end
50
11/12/2002
SAS Price SAS Price
• • • •
53
11/12/2002
15% 10% 5% 3-2 00 2
1-2 00 2
Q
Q
01 -ja n
ar 01 -m aj 01 -n ov
01 -m
0
0% ju l-0 0 se p-0 0 no v-0 0
•
20%
0
• SAS direct sales mark-up
SAS Price
SAS Price SAS Price
Agent mark-up possibility
SAS Price
4/7 4,7%%
Tomorrow
Scandinavian Airlines
25%
aj0
Today
Estimated effect of 1 300 MSEK of which revenue enhancement 800 MSEK Net price concept to be introduced 1 January 2003 Prices lowered with same amount as commissions Agent will set their own price to the customer Markup can vary from channel to channel Introduction of service fees in SAS’ direct channels Introduction of new agent program
11/12/2002
Electronic Channels steady at 21%
ar -0 0
•
Scandinavian Airlines
ja n-0
Scandinavian Airlines’ new net pricing concept as from 2003
50% 70%
MSEK 3 200 (vs 3 400)
52
m
51
Estimate Full year 2002 (Based on current levels)
m
98 -
19
19
98 -
03 -3
01 -0 98 -
98 -
19
19
19
0 06 -2 6 09 98 21 -1 19 2-1 99 6 -0 19 399 16 -0 19 699 15 -0 19 999 08 -1 20 2-0 00 1 -0 20 200 29 -0 20 52 00 6 -0 20 800 21 -1 20 101 14 -0 20 2-1 01 2 -0 20 501 10 -0 20 801 03 -1 20 002 30 -0 20 1-2 02 5 -0 20 402 24 -0 20 702 23 -1 015
0
2
0
% Sold - Travel Pass, Travel Pass Corporate, ETIX, Internet % Sold via Internet
Total volume E-channels in Q3 MSEK 1 618 20% of total passenger sales in Q3 New web site launched in May
54
11/12/2002
The SAS Group Investor Relations Tel. +46 (0) 8 797 1451 Fax: +46 (0)8 797 5110 e-mail:
[email protected] --- Homepage: www.scandinavian.net -- Results Jan -Sep 2002
Income Subsidiary & Affiliated Airlines – Braathens and Spanair fully consolidated Operating revenues
January – September 2002 2001 12 877 2 265
EBITDAR
+2 694
+351
+374*
+86
(MSEK)
EBT bef gains
* = Includes Spanair as affiliated company Nov/Dec 2001 because of change of financial year
55
11/12/2002
56
Significant better earnings in Subsidiary & Affiliated Airlines Jan-Sep 2002 vs 2001 Jan-Sep in MSEK
4 669*
-3,3%
5 515
5,9%
1901
20,8%
EBITDAR
853*
59%
1 298
180%
329
17%
202
231%
24*
n.m
634
n.m
66
25%
77
n.m
EBT
Spanair on track but affected by weak charter market EBT in Q3 of 153 MSEK MSEK
Revenues
781 14,5%
11/12/2002
JulJul-Sep 2002
Passenger revenue Other revenues
Operating revenues EBITDAR EBIT EBT
1 343 970
2 313 541 220 153
Spanish domestic market down 10% overall Increased market share from 22% to 27% on Spanish domestic Weak charter market (-15%) Significantly increased yield 27,2% Jan-Sep Closure of intercontinental traffic Focus on high yield markets Price increases in Spanish market
* = Spanair accumelated figures for the period March-September 57
11/12/2002
SAS AUSTRIAN
AIR CANADA /
LAUDA AIR
CANADIAN THAI VARIG AIR NEW ZEALAND
Long-haul operations closed in March 2002 Improved mix
ALL NIPPON
UNITED
TYROLEAN
Shift from low yield to high yield markets
SINGAPORE MEXICANA BRITISH MIDLAND
Key Operating data:
SPANAIR
– Total Aicraft utiliz 9,2 hrs/ day – Cabin Crew 900 hrs/year
59
11/12/2002
Spanair’s unit cost well in line with european low cost carriers
Spanair ready to join STAR Full member as from 2003 LUFTHANSA
58
11/12/2002
60
Cost reductions Capacity reductions Unit cost in line with low costs carriers Positive operating profit for 2002 (including capital gains)
11/12/2002
The SAS Group Investor Relations Tel. +46 (0) 8 797 1451 Fax: +46 (0)8 797 5110 e-mail:
[email protected] --- Homepage: www.scandinavian.net -- Results Jan -Sep 2002
Strong performance in Braathens during Jan-Sep of 2002
Braathens – continues to perform well on Norwegian market 9 % fall in the total domestic market compared with Jan - Sept 2001 Cabin factor Jan – Sept on scheduled was 58,6 % vs 52,1 % in same period 2001
JulyJuly-September
2002
2001
1 522 421
1 413 374
1 943 +428
1 787 +164
+190
-69
Passenger Revenue Other Revenues
Operating Revenues EBITDAR EBT
61
New route schedule from April 2 and full effect of large capacity and cost cuts late 2001 gave significant improvements Jointly with Scandinavian Airlines provide a superior net work and good products to meet competition
11/12/2002
62
11/12/2002
64
11/12/2002
Widerøe and Air Botnia significantly improved results Widerøe Increased traffic by 21,5% in Q3 and good performance.
Air Botnia Strong performance and increased traffic (RPK) by 36,6%. Strengthened market position
Jan – Sep 2002 Total Revenues MSEK 1 901 (+21%) EBITDAR MSEK 329 (+17%)
Jan – Sep 2002 Total Revenues MSEK 781 (+15%) EBITDAR MSEK 202 (+231%)
EBT
EBT
MSEK 66 (+25%)
63
MSEK 77 (n.m)
11/12/2002
Income Business Area Airline Related Business
SAS Cargo
EBITDA down 27% mainly due to weak Cargo development
MSEK
January - September 2002
2001
6 419 -6 049
5 841 -5 335
370
506
44
190
Operating revenues Operating expences
SAS Cargo was established as an independent corporation on June 1st 2001 SAS Cargo offers together with the WOW Alliance (Lufthansa Cargo and Singapore Airlines Cargo) harmonized express products all over the world.
Key figures Jan-Sep
EBITDA
Income before taxes
2002
2001
Operating revenue
2 043
1 976
Traffic revenue, MSEK
1 632
1 588
EBITDA, MSEK Number of employees
-26
-
1 134
1 187
* = SAS Cargo was formed in 2001. Operating revenue figures are not available before. 65
11/12/2002
66
11/12/2002
The SAS Group Investor Relations Tel. +46 (0) 8 797 1451 Fax: +46 (0)8 797 5110 e-mail:
[email protected] --- Homepage: www.scandinavian.net -- Results Jan -Sep 2002
SAS Trading – turn around in prosess
Scandinavian IT Group
SAS Trading is a business in the SAS Group and a operator within Travel Retail. SAS Trading had 658 employees at year end 2001 In 2001 SAS Trading lost its concessions for duty free sales and operation of stores at Swedish airports.
One of Scandinavia's largest IT companies, with a turnover of 2 463 MSEK in 2001 and a total of more than 1300 employees in three countries
January-September 2002 2001 Total Revenues EBITDA Profit before taxes www.scandinavian www.scandinavianIT scandinavianIT. IT.com
1 676
1 835
176
196
81
84
January-September 2002 2001 Total Revenues www.scandinavian www.scandinavian. scandinavian.net
Scandinavian IT Group Customer driven - Airline focused - Technology based
67
68
1 734
36
7
4
-24
Profit before taxes
11/12/2002
SAS Flight Academy – EBITDA flat 2002 vs. 2001
11/12/2002
Jetpak Jetpak is one of the fastest growing companies withing expresslogistic in the Nordic countries. The company is 100% owned by SAS Group and has 151 employees
Training centers for pilots and other personell. 35% of revenues outside SAS in 2001.
www.sasflightacademy www.sasflightacademy. sasflightacademy.com
1 560
EBITDA
January-September 2002 2001
January-September 2002 2001 Total Revenues 458 460
Total Revenues
280
265
EBITDA
EBITDA
2
16
Profit before taxes
-3
12
Profit before taxes
69
105
107
26
38
www.jetpak www.jetpak. jetpak.com
11/12/2002
70
11/12/2002
Rezidor SAS Hospitality – current brand and market penetration
Number of hotels 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0
Franchised Managed Leased Owned
'94
71
11/12/2002
'95
'96
'97
'98
'99
'00
'01
72
11/12/2002
The SAS Group Investor Relations Tel. +46 (0) 8 797 1451 Fax: +46 (0)8 797 5110 e-mail:
[email protected] --- Homepage: www.scandinavian.net -- Results Jan -Sep 2002
SIH
+1,5%
Operating result
195
231 -15,6%
Adjusted EBITDA
192
196
Pre tax profit Including gains
103
81
-2,0% -
Jan-Sep 2002 103 MSEK Jan-Sep 2001 81 MSEK
REVPAR - Rezidor
73
11/12/2002
New step: Rezidor SAS to invest in new multi-brand concept Capitalize on current brand Platform for further growth – more brands more choices Streamlining of products with distinct profile Capitalize on knowledge and experience Economies of scale Reduced cyclically and business risks
75
Capitalize on current brand Platform for further growth – more brands more choices Streamlining of products with distinct profile Capitalize on knowledge and experience Economies of scale Reduced cyclically and business risks
77
11/12/2002
REVPAR - Market
74
11/12/2002
Rezidor SAS signed 30 year partnership agreement with Carlson Companies Inc. Master franchise agreement with exclusive rights for Europe, Middle East and Africa with access to: Global reservations system Strong marketing network Existing customer base Loyalty program IT and know how 30 year term with exclusivity
Brand portfolio: Regent, Radisson SAS, Country Inns and Park Inn
Insignificant investment - 4,5 MEUR
11/12/2002
New step: Rezidor SAS to invest in new multi-brand concept
02-jul
2 561
Pretax profit:
may02
2 599
15,00% 10,00% 5,00% 0,00% MSEK -5,00% -10,00% -15,00% -20,00% -25,00%
02-jan
Change
02-mar
Jan-Sep 2001
01-nov
Revenues
Jan-Sep 2002
01-jul
in MSEK
REZIDOR SAS Hospitality – REVPAR under pressure but better than industry
01-sep
REZIDOR SAS Hospitality – negatively affected by weaker markets
76
11/12/2002
Rezidor SAS signed 30 year partnership agreement with Carlson Companies Inc. Master franchise agreement with exclusive rights for Europe, Middle East and Africa with access to: Global reservations system Strong marketing network Existing customer base Loyalty program IT and know how 30 year term with exclusivity
Brand portfolio: Regent, Radisson SAS, Country Inn and Park Inn
Insignificant investment - 4,5 MEUR 78
11/12/2002
The SAS Group Investor Relations Tel. +46 (0) 8 797 1451 Fax: +46 (0)8 797 5110 e-mail:
[email protected] --- Homepage: www.scandinavian.net -- Results Jan -Sep 2002
SIH
Rezidor SAS Brand Positioning in Europe
Three new brands acquired for MSEK 60
Inter-Continental Regent
Regent –
Established in 1970, 5-star deluxe, 10 hotels in North America, Asia & Europe (1 in Berlin, Germany & 1 in Almaty, Kazakhstan)
Minimum Service
Established in 1987, Mid-market, 300 hotels in North America & Asia, 12 hotels in Europe
Limited Service
Included in Carlson Hotels in 2000, 3-star, limited service business hotel, 60 hotels in North America & Asia
Full Service
Country Inns
Park Inn Ibis
Park Inn –
Hilton Marriott Radisson SAS Sheraton Holiday Inn Novotel Scandic
First Class
Country Inns –
Four Seasons
Luxury
MidMid-Priced economy
Formula1
“Hard” Budget 79
11/12/2002
80
11/12/2002
82
11/12/2002
Radisson SAS current growth strategy Expansion in existing home markets – Scandinavia, Finland, Germany Extend home markets to UK, France, Benelux & Poland Expand in capitals & other important cities - e.g. Athens, Barcelona, Cairo, Rome, Zagreb…
Financials
Extend into leisure & resorts Focus on airport hotels
11/12/2002
Considerable surplus values despite reduced aircraft prices
Target: Net debt to peak in 2002 Targets 2004 – Solidity >30% – Net debt/ equity