Final Report

San Luis Obispo County 2040 Population, Housing & Employment Forecast

Prepared for

San Luis Obispo Council of Governments (SLOCOG) San Luis Obispo, CA

Submitted by

AECOM Technical Services August 11, 2011 Project No. 10840036

109 90 Wil shi re Bou lev ard Lo s Ang el es, C A 310.477.9585

Suit e 1500

90024

F AX 31 0.4 78. 19 50

www.era.aecom.com

Table of Contents I. II.

Executive Summary ............................................................................................................... 6 Population and Housing Forecast ........................................................................................ 7 Methodology ............................................................................................................................. 7 Population and Housing Projections ...................................................................................... 11 Revised Population and Housing Projections ........................................................................ 14 III. Employment .......................................................................................................................... 19 Methodology ........................................................................................................................... 19 Employment Projections ........................................................................................................ 27 IV. Forecast Tables .................................................................................................................... 29 V. Projections for Unincorporated Areas in SLO County .................................................... 48 VI. Appendix ............................................................................................................................... 51 Population............................................................................................................................... 52 Housing .................................................................................................................................. 64 Employment............................................................................................................................ 71 Available Forecasts ................................................................................................................ 83

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Index of Tables/Figures Tables Table 1: California Long-Term Population Projection (2000 - 2050) ................................................................................................ 7 Table 2: California Near-term Population Projection (10 year) ......................................................................................................... 8 Table 3: AECOM 2035 Population Growth Rates (SLO County) .................................................................................................... 11 Table 4: AECOM 2040 Revised Near-Term Growth Rates for SLO County (2010 – 2020) .......................................................... 12 Table 5: AECOM 2040 Household Population Estimate (SLO County) ......................................................................................... 13 Table 6: AECOM 2040 Housing Unit Estimate (SLO County) ........................................................................................................ 14 Table 7: Projected Housing Units (2011 – 2020) ............................................................................................................................. 15 Table 8: Historic Residential Building Permits by Year (2001 – 2010) ........................................................................................... 16 Table 9: Change in Population by Jurisdiction (2000 – 2010) ........................................................................................................ 16 Table 10: Historic Household Population and Dwelling Unit Growth per Year ............................................................................... 17 Table 11: AECOM Household Population Forecast Comparison – Mid Scenario ......................................................................... 18 Table 12: Assumed Distribution of Accommodation and Food Service by Jurisdiction ................................................................. 26 Table 13: Sub-Region Allocation of Employment by Industry in Unincorporated Area .................................................................. 26 Table 14: Sub-Region Baseline Employment Allocation by Industry in SLO County ..................................................................... 27 Table 15: Historic Non-Farm Employment Change Per Year (1990 – 2010) ................................................................................. 28 Table 16: AECOM 2040 Household Population Estimate by Jurisdiction (Low) ............................................................................ 29 Table 17: AECOM 2040 Household Population Estimate by Jurisdiction (Mid) ............................................................................. 30 Table 18: AECOM 2040 Household Population Estimate by Jurisdiction (High) ........................................................................... 31 Table 19: AECOM 2040 Housing Unit Estimate by Jurisdiction (Low) ........................................................................................... 32 Table 20: AECOM 2040 Housing Unit Estimate by Jurisdiction (Mid) ............................................................................................ 33 Table 21: AECOM 2040 Housing Unit Estimate by Jurisdiction (High) .......................................................................................... 34 Table 22: AECOM 2040 Household Population Estimate by Sub-Region (Low) ........................................................................... 35 Table 23: AECOM 2040 Household Population Estimate by Sub-Region (Mid) ............................................................................ 36 Table 24: AECOM 2040 Household Population Estimate by Sub-Region (High) .......................................................................... 37 Table 25: AECOM 2040 Housing Unit Estimate by Sub-Region (Low) .......................................................................................... 38 Table 26: AECOM 2040 Housing Unit Estimate by Sub-Region (Mid) ........................................................................................... 39 Table 27: AECOM 2040 Housing Unit Estimate by Sub-Region (High) ......................................................................................... 40 Table 28: AECOM 2040 Employment Estimates for SLO County (Low) ........................................................................................ 41 Table 29: AECOM 2040 Employment Estimates for SLO County (Mid) ......................................................................................... 42 Table 30: AECOM 2040 Employment Estimates for SLO County (High) ....................................................................................... 43 Table 31: AECOM 2040 Employment Estimates by Sub-Region (Low) ......................................................................................... 44 Table 32: AECOM 2040 Employment Estimates by Sub-Region (Mid) .......................................................................................... 44 Table 33: AECOM 2040 Employment Estimates by Sub-Region (High) ........................................................................................ 44 Table 34: AECOM 2040 Employment Estimates by Jurisdiction (Low) .......................................................................................... 45 Table 35: AECOM 2040 Employment Estimates by Jurisdiction (Mid) ........................................................................................... 46 Table 36: AECOM 2040 Employment Estimates by Jurisdiction (High) ......................................................................................... 47 Table 37: Unincorporated SLO County Population Projection (Low).............................................................................................. 48 Table 38: Unincorporated SLO County Population Projection (Mid) .............................................................................................. 49 Table 39: Unincorporated SLO County Population Projection (High) ............................................................................................. 50 Table 40: SLO County Share of Historic Household Population Change in the Region (1970 – 2010)........................................ 56 Table 41: SLO County Share of Historic Household Population Change in the State (1970 – 2010) ........................................... 56 Table 42: SLO County Retail Market Fundamentals (2007 – 2011) ............................................................................................... 80 Table 43: SLO County Office Market Fundamentals (2007 – 2011) ............................................................................................... 80 Table 44: SLO County Industrial Market Fundamentals (2007 – 2011) ......................................................................................... 80

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Figures Figure 1: Historic Unemployment (1990 – 2009) ............................................................................................................................. 20 Figure 2: Historic Employment Index (1990 – 2009) ....................................................................................................................... 21 Figure 3: Unemployment Rate Comparison (2009 – 2011) ............................................................................................................ 22 Figure 4: Nonfarm Employment Index (2009 – 2011) ..................................................................................................................... 22 Figure 5: Per Capita Real GDP (2001 – 2009) ................................................................................................................................ 23 Figure 6: Employment Forecast Comparison .................................................................................................................................. 28 Figure 7: SLO County Household Change from Previous Year (1990-2010) ................................................................................ 52 Figure 8: SLO County Households as a Percent of State Households (1991 – 2010) .................................................................. 52 Figure 9: SLO County Households as a Percent of Region Households (1991 – 2010) ............................................................... 53 Figure 10: Household Growth Index for SLO County, Region, and State (1991 – 2010) .............................................................. 53 Figure 11: Net Migration and Unemployment in the State .............................................................................................................. 54 Figure 12: Births and Deaths in SLO County (1971 – 2010)........................................................................................................... 54 Figure 13: Natural Increase and Net Migration in SLO County (1971 – 2010)............................................................................... 55 Figure 14: Net Migration in SLO County: Foreign and Domestic (1991 – 2010) ............................................................................ 55 Figure 15: US Migration to SLO County by Geography (2005 – 2008) .......................................................................................... 56 Figure 16: US Migration to SLO County from Other States by Geography (2005 – 2008) ............................................................ 57 Figure 17: Median Age (2009) .......................................................................................................................................................... 58 Figure 18: Age Cohorts (2009) ......................................................................................................................................................... 59 Figure 19: California Population Pyramid (2009) ............................................................................................................................. 60 Figure 20: County Population Pyramid (2005 – 2009) .................................................................................................................... 60 Figure 21: SLO County Race Distribution (2009) ............................................................................................................................ 61 Figure 22: Monterey Race Distribution (2009) ................................................................................................................................. 61 Figure 23: Santa Barbara Race Distribution (2009) ........................................................................................................................ 62 Figure 24: California Race Distribution (2009)................................................................................................................................. 62 Figure 25: Household Formation: Family Households (2009)......................................................................................................... 63 Figure 26: Educational Attainment (2009) ....................................................................................................................................... 63 Figure 27: Residential Building Permit Index in SLO County (1999 – 2009) .................................................................................. 64 Figure 28: Residential Building Permit Distribution in SLO County (1999 – 2009) ........................................................................ 64 Figure 29: Single-Family Residential Building Permit Index in SLO County (1999 – 2009) .......................................................... 65 Figure 30: Multi-Family Residential Building Permit Index in SLO County (1999 – 2009) ............................................................. 65 Figure 31: Annual Housing Unit Change in SLO County (1991 – 2010) ........................................................................................ 66 Figure 32: SLO County Share of State Housing Units (1991 – 2010) ............................................................................................ 66 Figure 33: SLO County Share of Region Housing Units (1991 – 2010) ......................................................................................... 67 Figure 34: Housing Unit Growth Index (1991 = 100) (1991 – 2010) ............................................................................................... 67 Figure 35: Persons per Household in SLO County (1991 – 2010) ................................................................................................. 68 Figure 36: US Migration to SLO County Persons per Household (2005 – 2008) ........................................................................... 68 Figure 37: Housing Tenure (2009) ................................................................................................................................................... 69 Figure 38: SLO County Home Prices (Nominal) (1998 – 2009) ...................................................................................................... 69 Figure 39: SLO County Housing Affordability Index (1990 – 2010) ................................................................................................ 70 Figure 40: Employment Growth Index (1990 = 100) (1990 – 2009) ............................................................................................... 71 Figure 41: Civilian Unemployment Rate (1990 – 2009) .................................................................................................................. 71 Figure 42: Change in Total SLO County Employment from Previous Year (1991 – 2009) .......................................................... 72 Figure 43: SLO County Share of State Employment (1991 – 2009) ............................................................................................... 72 Figure 44: Employment by Industry in SLO County (2009) ............................................................................................................. 73 Figure 45: Employment Change by Industry in SLO County (1990 – 2009) .................................................................................. 73 Figure 46: Employment Change by Industry in SLO County (2000 – 2009) .................................................................................. 74 Figure 47: Location Quotient (Select industries compared to State) (2010) .................................................................................. 75 Figure 48: Median Household Income (2009) ................................................................................................................................. 76 Figure 49: Mean Household Income (2009) .................................................................................................................................... 76 Figure 50: SLO County Household Distribution by Income (2009) ................................................................................................. 77 Figure 51: Per Capita Income (1990 – 2008) .................................................................................................................................. 78 Figure 52: Per Capita Incomes Relative to California (1990 – 2008) ............................................................................................. 79 Figure 53: Mean Household Income by Region of US Migration to SLO County (2005 – 2008) .................................................. 79 Figure 54: State GDP (Private Industries) (2001 – 2008) ............................................................................................................... 81 Figure 55: State Exports (1997 – 2009) ........................................................................................................................................... 81 Figure 56: State Venture Capital Investment (Total) (1995 – 2010) ............................................................................................... 82 Figure 57: State Venture Capital Investment (Health Care) (1995 – 2010) ................................................................................... 82 Figure 58: California Population Projections (2010 – 2040)............................................................................................................ 83 Figure 59: SLO County Population Projection Comparison (2010 – 2035) .................................................................................... 84 Figure 60: California Employment Projections (2018 – 2020) ........................................................................................................ 85 Figure 61: SLO County Employment Projection Comparison (2010) ............................................................................................. 85 Figure 62: SLO County Employment Projections (2010 – 2035) .................................................................................................... 86

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General & Limiting Conditions Every reasonable effort has been made to ensure that the data contained in this report are accurate as of the date of this study; however, factors exist that are outside the control of AECOM and that may affect the estimates and/or projections noted herein. This study is based on estimates, assumptions and other information developed by AECOM from its independent research effort, general knowledge of the industry, and information provided by and consultations with the client and the client's representatives. No responsibility is assumed for inaccuracies in reporting by the client, the client's agent and representatives, or any other data source used in preparing or presenting this study. This report is based on information that was current as of June 2011 and AECOM has not undertaken any update of its research effort since such date. Because future events and circumstances, many of which are not known as of the date of this study, may affect the estimates contained therein, no warranty or representation is made by AECOM that any of the projected values or results contained in this study will actually be achieved. Possession of this study does not carry with it the right of publication thereof or to use the name of "AECOM" or “Economics Research Associates” in any manner without first obtaining the prior written consent of AECOM. No abstracting, excerpting or summarization of this study may be made without first obtaining the prior written consent of AECOM. Further, AECOM has served solely in the capacity of consultant and has not rendered any expert opinions. This report is not to be used in conjunction with any public or private offering of securities, debt, equity, or other similar purpose where it may be relied upon to any degree by any person other than the client, nor is any third party entitled to rely upon this report, without first obtaining the prior written consent of AECOM. This study may not be used for purposes other than that for which it is prepared or for which prior written consent has first been obtained from AECOM. Any changes made to the study, or any use of the study not specifically prescribed under agreement between the parties or otherwise expressly approved by AECOM, shall be at the sole risk of the party making such changes or adopting such use. This study is qualified in its entirety by, and should be considered in light of, these limitations, conditions and considerations.

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I. Executive Summary AECOM economics (AECOM), formerly Economics Research Associates (ERA), was retained by the San Luis Obispo Council of Governments (SLOCOG) to update and expand our existing population and employment forecast for San Luis Obispo County (SLO County), which we completed in 2006 and subsequently revised in 2009, to year 2040. Our goal in this analysis is to provide forecasts for future land use in SLO County in order for SLOCOG to update the Regional Traffic Model for the preparation of a Sustainable Communities Strategy to be incorporated into the Regional Transportation Plan. The information provided above reflects changes in several data points since our previous forecast for the year 2035 in 2009. These include the inclusion of the housing units estimate to the projections, release of the 2010 census data, revised near-term employment forecasts, and revisions to near-term population and housing projections provided by local jurisdictions. Examining Census data since 1990, growth in SLO County has occurred mostly in Paso Robles and Unincorporated areas of SLO County. These two areas have attracted approximately 75 percent of net new population growth over the last 20 years. We anticipate this trend to continue in the future, with the City of San Luis Obispo to attract more residents than its historic norms. Other jurisdictions such as Grover Beach, Morro Bay, and Pismo Beach will continue historic trends of low population growth. The following table summarizes our predicted growth within SLO County based on a low-, medium-, and high-growth scenario. Based on historic norms, while growth is anticipated to be lower, AECOM believes the mid or high population scenarios may be most appropriate for planning purposes. Executive Summary Table: AECOM 2040 SLO County Projections

Year 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Household Population Low Mid High 252,631 252,631 252,631 258,034 258,584 259,134 268,100 269,934 271,767 276,696 279,845 282,827 287,473 292,222 296,713 298,357 304,736 310,707 309,529 317,371 324,699

Total Housing Units Low Mid High 117,315 117,315 117,315 119,249 119,518 119,786 123,621 124,515 125,408 127,913 129,463 130,929 133,293 135,641 137,861 138,726 141,888 144,847 144,303 148,196 151,832

In-Place Employment Low Mid High 95,900 95,900 95,900 101,000 101,300 101,300 106,700 106,700 106,700 110,400 110,700 116,400 114,400 115,700 122,300 119,000 120,800 128,200 123,500 125,900 134,100

Notes: SLO County’s Group Quarters population as of the 2010 Census was 17,006; Changes in the Group Quarters population has not been considered; employment is based on total in-place employment in SLO County. Source: US Census; AECOM

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II. Population and Housing Forecast Methodology Overview Similar to our past work, the AECOM methodology can be generally summarized as follows. First, we collected and analyzed population projections for the State of California. Utilizing this “top-down” approach, we established controls for predicted growth within the region based on a low-, medium-, and high-growth scenario. Using a variety of data sources, we established projected future shares of SLO County’s growth based on historic trends and projected changes within the region. Using the established “fair share” of population growth that SLO County could expect to experience in relation to the state, projections were established by five-year increments. AECOM believes this “fair share” analysis tied to macro changes within the state is the most appropriate methodology to establish estimates for population growth within SLO County until 2040. Implicit in the researched forecasts were projected changes for numerous variables that would affect both the state and SLO County in the future (e.g. immigration, death rates, etc.).

Review of Forecast Data Our first task was to research any revised long-term forecasts since issuing our last report. At this time, there is only one long-term forecast revision for the State of California. In August 2009, the California Department of Finance (DOF) issued a revised state population forecast to the year 2050. However, while specific county data was changed, the new estimate did not change the state’s longterm projections released in July 2007.1 The state forecast is presented below in Table 1. Table 1: California Long-Term Population Projection (2000 - 2050)

California

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

CAGR (2010 - 2040)

34,105,437

39,135,676

44,135,923

49,240,891

54,226,115

1.1%

Note: CAGR = compound annual growth rate Source: DOF (P-1 2007, Revised 2009)

If we examine the forecast’s 2010 population projection, the state is approximately 309,000 people high in relation to data released as of January 1, 2010 by the DOF. The discrepancy in the estimates is largely a result of net migration patterns, which changed as the nation entered the recessionary period. Annual net migration had averaged nearly 250,000 between 2000 and 2006, but for the past 1

AECOM relied on this estimate in our previous analysis.

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years since the report’s release the state has averaged approximately 86,500 new residents through net migration. A slowdown in net migration was anticipated in the 2007 projections, but not to the extent realized in recent years. Due to data limitations on long-term estimates, AECOM focused its attention on reviewing short-term estimates2 at the state and county level. Based on our research, we have identified the following key reports that have been released since our last study: 1. UCLA Anderson Forecast (March 2010); 2. California Department of Finance (DOF) Short-term Statewide Population Projections (May 2010); and 3. The Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy (CCSCE) California County Projections (2009/10 Edition). The UCLA report is an excellent resource for economic trends, while the CCSCE and DOF reports give an updated snapshot of projected near-term growth. A summary of their 10-year California projections and associated growth rate are presented below in Table 2. These estimates do not alter much from the previous long term growth rates provided by the DOF. Table 2: California Near-term Population Projection (10 year) Forecast

Numeric Change (000s)

CAGR

4,018.4 4,851.5

1.0% 1.2%

DOF (2005 - 2015) CCSCE (2008 - 2018) st

Notes: Population estimate from July 1 of given year; CAGR = compound annual growth rate Source: DOF, CCSCE, and AECOM

Key Issues and Considerations Of the two components of population growth, natural increase (birth minus deaths) and net migration, the state’s projected growth is anticipated to be dominated by natural increase. During the 1990s net migration made up only 21 percent of population growth and natural increase accounted for 79 percent of the increase. Since 2000, the breakdown has been 37 percent due to net migration and 63 percent due to natural increase. The DOF projection forecasts that future population growth will be driven by approximately

2

Generally in a ten year time frame.

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one-third net migration and two-thirds natural increase. In contrast, SLO County has had an almost opposite relationship in its population growth since 1990. During the 1990s net migration made up 76 percent of population growth and natural increase accounted for only 24 percent of the increase. Since 2000, the breakdown has been 80 percent due to net migration and 20 percent due to natural increase, but this dynamic is challenging in relation to long-term projections. Net migration can vary significantly year-to-year and is much more volatile than natural increases which tend to be more even over time. Examining change in migration since 1990, when the DOF disaggregated net foreign immigration versus net domestic immigration, the majority of population growth in SLO County has come from net domestic migration. 1.

Net domestic migration represented 77 percent of net migration in the 1990s and 81 percent of net migration in the 2000s.

2.

Foreign net-migration has been relatively stable over the past two decades at the state level and has proved to be less sensitive to the economy than domestic population flows between states.

3.

In contrast, domestic net-migration is arguably the single most difficult demographic variable to forecast.

As noted in our last report, the regional, state, and national economic conditions influence migration flows significantly. Furthermore, the perception of the place, housing market, available jobs, etc. will influence people throughout the region, state, and nation to relocate in SLO County. As a result, over the next three years, the economy in SLO County and the state are expected to grow slowly. An important issue related to migration and future population growth is the awaited recovery to the regional residential real estate market. 1.

Between 2000 and 2006, the median price of a home in SLO County more than doubled. Since 2007, the housing prices have retreated approximately 30 percent as of year-end 2010.

2.

The latest report form DQ News suggests median home prices have declined 13.5 percent to $319,500 since January 2010.

3.

Based on housing permit data provided by the US Census from 1990 to 2009, housing permit activity has slowed tremendously over the last few years.

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4.

Recent data from foreclosureradar.com also suggests that properties in pre-foreclosure increased by 2.5 percent since last year (January 2010 to 2011), while bank owned properties increased by 23 percent during the same time period.

5.

Once the market absorbs the foreclosure inventory the supply of homes available for sale should decrease at an increased rate because there has been limited development over the last few years. According to the most recent forecasts3 for building permits, the anticipated stabilization and

6.

increase in building permit activity will occur in the next couple years. There are a couple of reasons to be optimistic that that housing market has reached or is close to its bottom: 1. First, housing is the most affordable it has been in decades. i.

According to analysts at Moody’s4, nationally the cost of housing is the equivalent of about 19 months of pay for an average family, the lowest in 35 years.

ii.

Prices usually average close to 12 month’s pay, although as evidenced in California, this varies significantly throughout the nation.

iii.

Examining SLO County, in the third quarter of 2010, 32 percent of households could afford5 the median SLO County home price.

iv.

Near the height of the housing bubble in SLO County, only 7 percent of the homes would be affordable using similar assumptions.

2. Second, investors have begun to buy houses and condos in all cash deals at record levels throughout the nation. i. This is very different than bubble-era speculators who borrowed money to purchase homes, which should provide confidence, or at least signal that these investors are betting on a rebound. ii. General consensus suggests that while recovery may be on its way, the fast price gains for residential properties experienced in the mid 2000s are not likely to be back in the nearterm.

3

Construction Industry Research Board (February 2009) and UCLA Anderson Forecast (March 2010) As published in the February 27th, 2011 edition of the Wall Street Journal. 5 Based on the California Association of Realtors’ income-to-price lending assumption.

4

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Population and Housing Projections Population In our past forecast to year 2035, we had estimated that SLO County’s household and total population (including group quarters) would grow as follows in Table 3: Table 3: AECOM 2035 Population Growth Rates (SLO County) Low

Mid

High

0.71% 0.70%

0.80% 0.76%

0.88% 0.82%

Population Type Household Population Total Population Source AECOM (2009 Report)

Examining 2010 data as provided by the DOF, AECOM’s estimate (which was held constant in each scenario) for household population was 255 people less than what was reported by the DOF (as of January 1, 2010). With a previously assumed recovery beginning in 2011, the projections in all previous scenarios were held constant due to the uncertainties surrounding economic conditions at the time. Due to a review of near-term economic and population forecasts, we believe that growth rates will have a range based on the speed of near-term recovery. Between 2010 and 2020, we have utilized three different growth rates based on a low-, mid-, and high-growth population scenario. CCSCE has a low range of near-term population growth of 0.6 percent annually6. In order to be conservative, we have used our previous low near-term growth forecast from our 2009 report as the mid growth forecast, and utilized the DOF’s near-term growth forecast for SLO County as our high estimate. Both the mid and high growth near-term estimate is slightly less than what we had previously projected. While we expect recovery to pick up, we also expect it to be prolonged in the near-term.

6

2009 - 2019

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Table 4: AECOM 2040 Revised Near-Term Growth Rates for SLO County (2010 – 2020) Forecast CCSCE AECOM DOF

CAGR 0.60% 0.78% 0.85%

Source: CCSCE, DOF, and AECOM

In order to estimate population growth between 2020 and 2040, we reviewed our past analysis and compared our findings to recent research to determine what changes were warranted. We found, in the absence of new long-term estimates to consider, the relationship between SLO County and California has not changed significantly. Trends previously evidenced have appeared to continue. This includes an aging population, declining persons per household, and changes in household formation. Furthermore, SLO County is projected to continue its long-term trend of shrinking as a percent of the state population. Consistent with other coastal counties, future growth will be slower than inland counties throughout California as these areas are anticipated to experience faster population growth due to lower home prices and available land for residential development. As such, AECOM has relied on previously established growth estimates as established in our low-, mid-, and high growth scenarios in 2009 for the years between 2020 and 2035. 7 The growth rate for 2040 was based on the historic share of SLO County’s population in relation to the state as well as the imputed growth rate from each revised scenario. AECOM believes near-term growth changes will largely be based on SLO County’s ability to attract Baby Boomers and those individuals who will be in their late 20s and early 30s in 2020 through domestic in-migration. Collectively, these groups represent close to 80 percent of the anticipated population growth (by age cohort) in the state. Both segments are important as many of these individuals will be either looking to retire and perhaps relocate or looking to get married, start families, and establish their own households. The proposed population scenarios are provided below.

7

By five-year time period.

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Table 5: AECOM 2040 Household Population Estimate (SLO County) Year 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Low 257,635 265,457 273,517 282,240 293,176 304,219 315,556

Mid 257,635 267,819 278,406 288,462 301,020 313,718 326,539

High 257,635 268,764 280,373 291,595 305,685 319,885 334,082

st

Note: As of January 1 of each year; Group Quarter population is not included. Source: DOF (2010) and AECOM

These population scenarios represent a growth rate of 0.68 percent in the low scenario, 0.79 percent in the mid scenario, and 0.87 percent in the high scenario. These growth rates are slightly less than previously estimated in our past research, largely a result of adjusted 2010 household population numbers from the DOF, elongated time-period of analysis, and near-term forecasts adjustments.

Housing Units In order to estimate the total housing unit demand associated with the population projections provided herein, we have analyzed historic trends to estimate future persons per household as well as vacancy rate estimates. Based on demographic information, domestic migration information, and changes in household formation due to an aging population, AECOM has used the last 20 years to project a 30 year trend for persons per household. Similarly, we have used vacancy rate declines since 1990 to project decreases in housing vacancy to 2040. With those two estimates, which are consistent among all growth scenarios, we have used the following formula to project the total number of housing units in SLO County: Note: Total Housing Units =

(Population / Persons Per Household) (1 – Vacancy Rate)

The related housing unit estimates are provided below in Table 6.

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Table 6: AECOM 2040 Housing Unit Estimate (SLO County) Year 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Low 118,996 123,663 128,538 133,829 140,289 146,933 153,856

Mid 118,996 124,763 130,836 136,780 144,043 151,521 159,211

High 118,996 125,203 131,760 138,265 146,275 154,499 162,889

st

Note: As of January 1 of each year; Group Quarter housing is not included. Source: DOF (2010) and AECOM

Since 1990, SLO County has averaged approximately 1,450 new dwelling units per year. The high estimate projects a similar delivery rate slightly above the 20 year average. The medium and low estimates are below the 20-year average, yielding an average of 1,340 and 1,160 units, respectively.

Revised Population and Housing Projections8 Sub-Regional Allocation of Housing Units In this next phase of analysis, we compared our top-down estimates with information provided by local municipalities to refine previous estimates using a bottom-up approach. The local estimates suggest very little anticipated development in the near-term (Table 7). In total, incorporated cities and unincorporated areas throughout SLO County have estimated the delivery of approximately 6,000 to 8,000 units. This would result in, on average, the construction of approximately 600 - 800 units per year9.

8

It is important to note that unlike the previous estimates, AECOM was able to utilize the 2010 Census data to recalibrate the base household population and total housing units in SLO County. All previous estimates were based on DOF data as of January 1st, 2011. 9

With growth expected to remain slow in the upcoming years.

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Table 7: Projected Housing Units (2011 – 2020) Jurisdiction

Minimum Units

Maximum Units

Arroyo Grande

368

752

Atascadero

226

550

Grover Beach

130

130

Morro Bay

28

28

Paso Robles

1,438

1,438

Pismo Beach

146

220

San Luis Obispo

970

975

Unincorporated Area

3,000

4,000

Incorporated

3,306

4,093

SLO County Total

6,306

8,093

Note: The estimates provided in this table came from individual municipalities based on a data request from SLOCOG. These estimates were not provided by AECOM, nor do they reflect AECOM’s predicted future growth for the various geographies. Source: Individual Municipalities, data compiled by SLOCOG

For comparison, between 2001 and 2010 approximately 1,430 housing permits were issued annually, with a noticeable drop-off in residential permitting in the last three years. Table 8 shows the residential building permits by jurisdictions for 2001 to 2010. According to the 2010 Census, SLO County has added approximately 15,000 housing units since 2000. Data from the 2010 Census suggests the increase of approximately 23,000 household residents in SLO County, a 9 percent increase in population since 2000 (Table 9). Growth was led by large population gains in Paso Robles and in unincorporated areas of SLO County.

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Table 8: Historic Residential Building Permits by Year (2001 – 2010) Year

Permitted Units

2001

1,603

2002

1,854

2003

1,684

2004

2,259

2005

1,763

2006

1,574

2007

1,484

2008

1,109

2009

513

2010

451

SLO County Total

14,294

Annual Average

1,429

Source: Individual Municipalities, data compiled by SLOCOG

Table 9: Change in Population by Jurisdiction (2000 – 2010) Jurisdiction

Census 2000

Census 2010

Change in Population

% Change in Population

Household Population Arroyo Grande Atascadero Grover Beach Morro Bay Paso Robles Pismo Beach San Luis Obispo

15,641 24,945 12,941 10,152 23,370 8,524 42,312

17,078 26,986 12,967 10,073 29,624 7,642 43,937

1,437 2,041 26 -79 6,254 -882 1,625

9.2% 8.2% 0.2% -0.8% 26.8% -10.3% 3.8%

Unincorporated Area Incorporated County Total

93,225 137,885 231,110

104,324 148,307 252,631

11,099 10,422 21,521

11.9% 7.6% 9.3%

15,571

17,006

1,435

9.2%

246,681

269,637

22,956

9.3%

Group Quarters Population Total Population Source: US Census Bureau

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Based on local agency estimates of housing unit deliveries (assuming historic and projected trends regarding vacancy and persons per household size), we anticipate that SLO County will gain on average between 1,100 and 1,200 people per year 10 over the next 9 years. This is approximately half the average annual growth experienced during the last decade. Based on current economic conditions (highlighted previously) this estimate may be justified, but is likely conservative in nature. AECOM believes the downturn in the real estate market in California and San Luis Obispo is near or at the bottom and some positive signals have emerged. It should be expected that as the excess supply of housing units is reduced, foreclosures decrease, and unemployment declines the real estate market in California and SLO County will return to normal levels. However, caution is still warranted due to the unknown duration of the economic recovery and the necessary stabilization of the housing market. Table 10 presents a summary of the average annual projected household population and housing unit change in comparison to historic trends experienced over the last 20 years in SLO County. Table 10: Historic Household Population and Dwelling Unit Growth per Year Average Household Population Change Per Year

Average Housing Unit Change Per Year

1990 - 2000

2,800

1,200

2000 - 2010

2,300

1,500

2,500

1,350

2,150

1,050

Years

1990 - 2010 2010 - 2040 1

1

Revised mid projection with local near-term forecast (rounded)

Source: US Census, Department of Finance, Local Municipalities, and AECOM

The following table provides a comparison of our 2009 and 2011 estimates. Previous to the release of the 2010 Census data the difference between the estimates was insignificant11 (Table 11). However, due to the 2010 Census data and guidance provided by local jurisdictions within SLO County, our projections have has changed in two key ways. 1. The 2010 Census data reduced the baseline household population by approximately 5,000 residents; and

10

Similar to input provided by the local jurisdictions, we do not assume growth will be constant. Rather, growth will be slower between 2010 and 2015 and pick-up between 2015 and 2020. 11 We have used the “mid” scenario for comparison purposes. AECOM

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2. The slow growth predicted in the near-term has elongated the duration of the recovery period and hence pushed out achievable population growth by approximately five (5) years. As such, 2040 projections are now consistent with previous estimates made for 2035. Table 11: AECOM Household Population Forecast Comparison – Mid Scenario Forecast Census 2010 2009 AECOM 2011 AECOM (2A) 2011 AECOM (2B)

2010 252,631 257,380 257,635 252,631

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

268,780 267,819 258,584

279,330 278,406 269,934

289,420 288,462 279,845

302,020 301,020 292,222

314,760 313,718 304,736

326,539 317,371

320,000 310,000 300,000 290,000 280,000 270,000 260,000 250,000 240,000 2010 2009 AECOM

2015

2020

2025

2011 AECOM (2A)

2030

2035

2011 AECOM (2B)

Note: 2A = Initial “top-down” projections based on DOF data; 2B = Revised “bottom-up” projections based on Census data and near term growth estimates provided by municipalities within SLO County Source: US Census, Department of Finance, Local Municipalities, and AECOM

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III. Employment Methodology Overview The following summarizes the process in which the low, medium, and high employment growth scenarios for SLO County. A number of the figures and tables provided in the Appendix are at the basis of our analysis.

Economic Overview The UCLA Anderson Forecast is a leading state and national forecast that is published quarterly. In the most recent report12, UCLA Anderson Forecast Senior Economist David Shulman says, “The U.S. economy is getting better. Slowly, in fits and starts, real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is growing and employment is increasing.” According to Shulman, the economy is being propelled by strong increases in corporate spending and software and that the impetus for this spending is coming from extraordinarily low interest rates, a rapidly recovering stock market and investment incentives coming out of Washington D.C. Exports and the automobile sector are also spurring the recovery, the latter a rebounding as pent-up demand spurs new car sales. Housing (unlike autos, houses wear out slowly and don’t need replacing as often) and state and local government lag other growing sectors. California’s forecast, authored by UCLA Anderson Forecast Senior Economist Jerry Nickelsburg, reflects the mixed signals emanating from the state’s economic data. Job creation in California remains sluggish. Key findings include: 1) California's unemployment rate is predicted to be substantially above the U.S. rate at the end of 2013. The forecast actually calls for slower growth than was expected in the year-end 2010 report and that near-term slow growth means the unemployment rate in California will remain at 10.5% next year. 2) The latter part of the forecast (though 2013) calls for health care, professional and business services, exports, and technology-related manufacturing sectors to generate more robust growth. “Job creation,” Nickelsburg writes, “though more rapid in late 2011 and in 2012 and 2013, will not be fast enough to push the unemployment rate below double digits until the start of 2013.” 3) The drivers of the recovery in California are predicted to be education, health care, exports, technology, and residential construction. The expectation for 2011 is a growth in employment of 1.1%. The bulk of this growth is predicted to occur in the latter part of the year.

12

Released March 2011

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4) Employment growth is expected to speed up in 2012 and 2013 as the recovery takes hold. Real personal income growth is forecasted to be 1.3% in 2011 and 3.7% and 4.1% in 2012 and 2013 respectively. The unemployment rate has been stuck between 12% and 13% throughout this year. Employment growth in 2011 and 2012 will only push unemployment down marginally and the report does not expect it to reach 9.7% until the 1st quarter of 2013 with the unemployment rate to remain elevated at 8.9% through 2013. California added 90,600 jobs in the first quarter of 2011, more than the increase of 82,600 for all of 2010, according to seasonally adjusted data just released by The California Employment Development Department (EDD). For now, the job growth is largely being fueled by technology, trade, and tourism. The recovery has been particularly strong in Northern California where technology firms are concentrated. Southern California employment growth remains behind the Bay Area’s but economists are encouraged by the fact that major markets like Los Angeles, began adding jobs again in the first quarter after more than two years of decline. Historically, SLO County has moved in tandem with the state in regards to a few key economic indicators. As presented below in Figure 1, the historic unemployment rate has consistently been approximately two (2) percent below the state unemployment rate over the last 20 years. As shown in Figure 2 while SLO County has grown faster than the state since 1990, it has experienced similar trends in terms of job gains and losses over the analyzed time-period. Figure 1: Historic Unemployment (1990 – 2009)

Civilian Unemployment Rate

14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0%

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

0.0%

SLO County

Central Coast

California

Source: EDD and AECOM

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150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0 100.0 90.0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Employment Growth (All Industries) Index (1990 = 100)

Figure 2: Historic Employment Index (1990 – 2009)

SLO County

Central Coast

California

Source: EDD and AECOM

Examining detailed near-term data it becomes evident that SLO County has been more volatile in comparison to state trends. Unemployment levels have remained below the state, but indexed nonfarm job growth has experienced more erratic swings in job gains and losses on a monthly basis. With a smaller sample size, significant job loss in one industry can dramatically affect a smaller area in comparison to the state. Yet, the information provides guidance on how the regional economy is interconnected to statewide economic trends. In terms of economic output, measured by per capita GDP, SLO County’s per capita GDP is approximately $10,000 less than the state. A higher per capita GDP means a more efficient economy with fewer people making more goods, services, investments, etc. In comparison SLO County’s median household income is approximately $5,000 less than the state’s, as measured by the US Census between 2005 and 2009.

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AECOM

Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11

Total Nonfarm Employment Index (January 2009 = 100)

Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11

Civilian Unemployment Rate

Figure 3: Unemployment Rate Comparison (2009 – 2011) 14.0%

12.0%

10.0%

8.0%

6.0%

4.0%

2.0%

0.0%

San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles MSA

San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles MSA California

Source: EDD and AECOM

Figure 4: Nonfarm Employment Index (2009 – 2011)

102.0

100.0

98.0

96.0

94.0

92.0

90.0

88.0

86.0

California

Source: DOF and AECOM

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Figure 5: Per Capita Real GDP (2001 – 2009)

Per capita real GDP (2005 dollars)

$60,000 $50,000 $40,000 $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 $0 2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, CA (MSA)

2007

2008

2009

California

Source: BEA and AECOM

Review of Forecast Data The EDD provides historic employment estimates in SLO County (please see Appendix). It is important to note that for this analysis, all employment counts are from the perspective of jobs within SLO County (or what is sometimes referred to as “in-place employment”). Every two years the EDD projects employment growth at the county and state level. In the last report, issued in January 2011, the EDD predicts the following changes: 1) SLO County will increase employment by 11,600 jobs over a ten-year period between 2008 and 2018. This job total includes self employment, unpaid family workers, private household 13

workers, farm, and nonfarm employment.

The growth rate of 9.6 percent is virtually

identical to the projected statewide growth rate of 9.7 percent. 2) Key growth sectors (2,000 or more jobs) will include education services, health care and social assistance, leisure and hospitality, and government14. An additional 1,800 new jobs are estimated for professional and business services sector, and 1,500 new jobs are projected in the retail trade sector. These five sectors account for over 86 percent of new jobs in nonfarm employment. Five major industry sectors are expected to grow at a slower

13

AECOM only analyzed non-farm employment at the sub-region level. Unlike private industry, the State and local budgets may affect the job sector. SLO County is particularly vulnerable as the largest job sector is dependent on public resources. 14

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pace than one percent annual growth for the region, with manufacturing showing a negative growth rate for the projection period.

Key Issues and Considerations Limitations Unlike long-term population forecasting, which is more reliable because there is a deterministic element to the process (e.g. forecasters can predict with a high level of certainty how many people will die during the next 20 years) long-term employment projections are more unreliable because of the uncertainly involved in accurately predicting future economic trends. Most long-term economic forecasts simply assume that present growth rates will continue at a set rate into the future. However, widespread changes in technology, for example, may have a profound impact on the local, state and national economy. Beyond these issues, there are a number of limitations when estimating future employment growth by industry at the sub-county level: 1) While current development (under construction) was considered 15 the lack of eminent commercial development does not help illuminate long-term development trends in SLO County. 2)

Given the relatively high vacancy rates16 there will be a period of absorption before development becomes feasible. This should concentrate job growth in current employment centers within SLO County.

3) Ultimately there is little certainty predicting where industries will choose to locate. For example, some businesses tend to cluster near each other others (e.g. biotech), while others (e.g. retail) will follow population growth. Any changes in land use policy could also change commercial development patterns in the future. Our long-term estimate assumes the existing distribution of jobs by geography to remain relatively consistent. In this analysis we have assumed that there is no structural change to the SLO County economy during the period under consideration. Other metrics used to calibrate long-term

During 2010, according to CoStar, only two commercial buildings were completed in SLO County. The Sierra Vista Regional Medical Center, totaling 45,000 square feet and is now 53 percent occupied and 2120 Golden Hill Road, a 11,100 square feet that as of year-end was 10 percent occupied. There was no data regarding retail or industrial development developed in 2010 and no office, industrial, or retail space is currently under construction. 15

16

Specifically within Class B office and Flex Industrial commercial space designations.

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employment include historic employment growth by industry, commercial development patterns, and historic relationships between employment and population growth.

Baseline Sub-Region In Place Employment Allocation While the EDD is an excellent resource for near-term employment projections, it does not provide data at the sub-county level. As such, AECOM utilized two primary additional data resources to estimate long-term employment growth: OnTheMap and InfoUSA. OnTheMap is a web-based mapping and reporting application that shows where workers are employed and where they live. The database provides users with city level in place employment data by industry using the corresponding 2-digit NAICS (North American Industry Classification System) code. The basis of the data is the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), which is the most detailed industry data available17. QCEW provides number of jobs, number of businesses, and total payroll quarterly by state and county. The data is usually released six months after the end of the quarter. The reference period used in this analysis is 2009, which includes data current as of the second quarter of the calendar year (April – June). In place employment counts in this dataset represents the total number of workers who were employed by the same employer in both the second and first quarter in the given year of analysis. The OnTheMap database limits the user to extract 2-digit NAICS code employment data at the incorporated city or county level. In SLO County, the accommodation and food service industry is a key business segments that cannot be properly analyzed at the 2-digit NAICS code level. Furthermore, future employment growth in the unincorporated area of SLO County needed to be quantified as well. As such, we utilized InfoUSA to complete the analysis18. InfoUSA is a private vendor of in-depth business information. The database, current as of calendar year 2009, provides detailed business information at the 5-digit NAICS code level. The information is embedded in AECOM’s ESRI Business Analyst tool within our Geographic Information System (GIS) software. In order to redistribute total employment within the accommodation and food service industry, we used the following methodology: 1) AECOM assumed that InfoUSA’s distribution of employment was valid. In all areas within SLO County the 2-digit NAICS code was redistributed within the two 3-digit NAICS codes19 that collectively make up accommodation and food services (Table 13).

17

QCEW is used for EDD data, however, the employment represents different time periods (e.g. annual vs. half year). 18 We had originally intended to rely solely on InfoUSA. However, their estimates were inconsistent with government reporting based on QCEW data. 19 NAICS Code 721 = Accommodation; NAICS Code 722 = Food Services and Drinking Places. AECOM

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2) In the unincorporated areas of SLO County, we assumed that the total job estimate provided by OnTheMap was accurate, but redistributed employment by the shares provided by InfoUSA (Table 14). A summary of these two adjustments are provided below. Table 12: Assumed Distribution of Accommodation and Food Service by Jurisdiction Food Service Accommodation Arroyo Grande 4% 96% Atascadero 12% 88% Grover Beach 6% 94% Morro Bay 30% 70% Paso Robles 9% 91% Pismo Beach 21% 79% San Luis Obispo 21% 79% Unincorporated 38% 62% Incorporated 18% 82% County Total 23% 77% Source: OnTheMap v5, InfoUSA, AECOM

Table 13: Sub-Region Allocation of Employment by Industry in Unincorporated Area North North Central South Coast County County County Mining, Logging, and Construction 19% 9% 45% 28% Manufacturing 25% 12% 51% 12% Wholesale Trade 36% 8% 19% 37% 28% 19% 40% Retail Trade 14% Utilities 11% 15% 22% 53% 12% 14% 25% Transportation and Warehousing 49% Information 51% 35% 7% 7% 40% 23% 19% Financial Activities 18% Professional and Business Services 30% 19% 31% 19% Education Services, Health Care, and Social Assistance 5% 18% 56% 22% Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 19% 61% 6% 14% Accommodation 27% 50% 22% 2% Food Services and Drinking Places 17% 42% 15% 27% 43% 24% 21% Other Services 13% Government 6% 25% 68% 2% Note: Other Services excludes 814-Private Household Workers Source: OnTheMap v5, InfoUSA, AECOM

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From these data sources we created a baseline estimate to distribute employment and future employment growth throughout SLO County (Table 14). These shares were applied to 2010 employment data provided by the EDD at the SLO County level presented in the Projection section. It is important to note that these estimates (e.g. distribution of employment by area) are not comparable to our past projections. In our previous studies, we relied on in-place employment data provided by the Client not the data sources referenced above. Table 14: Sub-Region Baseline Employment Allocation by Industry in SLO County

Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Utilities Transportation and Warehousing Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education Services, Health Care, and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation Food Services and Drinking Places Other Government

North Coast

North County

Central County

South County

11% 14% 16% 8% 15% 18% 17% 8% 12% 5% 10% 18% 8% 8% 2%

29% 30% 21% 28% 21% 24% 24% 25% 20% 19% 34% 30% 28% 28% 34%

35% 41% 38% 38% 39% 36% 43% 48% 50% 55% 36% 43% 41% 42% 41%

24% 15% 26% 26% 26% 22% 15% 19% 18% 20% 20% 9% 24% 22% 23%

Note: Other Services excludes 814-Private Household Workers Source: OnTheMap v5, InfoUSA, AECOM

Employment Projections AECOM has provided a low, mid, and high scenario for growth in SLO County in five-year increments to 2040. Growth for the next 10 year period is based on previously referenced EDD data and is held constant throughout each employment growth scenario. The following table presents a summary of the average annual projected employment change in comparison to historic trends experienced over the last 20 years in SLO County (Table 15). The following tables provide our estimates for SLO County, the sub-regions, and by each individual jurisdiction. SLO County estimates include total nonfarm employment by industry, which is exclusive of farm employment, self employment, unpaid family workers, or private household workers. The analysis for the sub-regions and jurisdictions also only include estimates for non-farm in place employment, which are not broken out by industry. AECOM

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Table 15: Historic Non-Farm Employment Change Per Year (1990 – 2010) Average NonFarm Employment Change Per Year Years 1990 - 1995 320 1995 - 2000 3,480 2000 - 2005 1,420 2005 - 2010 -1,040 1990 - 2010 1,045 1 2010 - 2040 1,000 1

mid projection

Source: EDD and AECOM

For comparison purposes, the following figure presents a comparison of our 2035 and 2040 employment estimates using the mid-range job growth scenario.

Total Non-Farm Employment (In Place)

Figure 6: Employment Forecast Comparison 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2010

2015 AECOM 2040

2020

2025

2030

2035

AECOM 2035

Source: AECOM

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\

IV. Forecast Tables Table 16: AECOM 2040 Population Estimate by Jurisdiction (Low) Jurisdiction Arroyo Grande Atascadero Grover Beach Morro Bay Paso Robles Pismo Beach San Luis Obispo

2010 17,078 26,986 12,967 10,073 29,624 7,642 43,937

2015 17,412 27,285 13,142 10,152 30,522 7,744 44,667

2020 18,032 27,734 13,432 10,244 32,137 7,912 45,964

2025 18,489 28,547 13,650 10,450 33,670 8,140 46,602

2030 19,062 29,566 13,925 10,708 35,592 8,426 47,401

2035 19,640 30,594 14,201 10,969 37,533 8,714 48,208

2040 20,234 31,650 14,486 11,237 39,525 9,010 49,037

CAGR 0.57% 0.53% 0.37% 0.37% 0.97% 0.55% 0.37%

Total 3,156 4,664 1,519 1,164 9,901 1,368 5,100

Unincorporated Area Incorporated Group Quarters County Total Population

104,324 148,307 17,006 269,637

107,109 150,925 17,006 275,040

112,643 155,457 17,006 285,106

117,147 159,549 17,006 293,702

122,794 164,679 17,006 304,479

128,497 169,860 17,006 315,363

134,351 175,179 17,006 326,536

0.85% 0.56% 0.00% 0.64%

30,027 26,872 0 56,899

County Total (Household Population)

252,631

258,034

268,100

276,696

287,473

298,357

309,529

0.68%

56,898

Notes: CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate; Growth scenario has not considered different communities development limitations or capacity at build-out; San Luis Obispo County’s Group Quarters population as of the 2010 Census was 17,006; Changes in the Group Quarters population has not been considered; Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: AECOM

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Table 17: AECOM 2040 Population Estimate by Jurisdiction (Mid) Jurisdiction Arroyo Grande Atascadero Grover Beach Morro Bay Paso Robles Pismo Beach San Luis Obispo

2010 17,078 26,986 12,967 10,073 29,624 7,642 43,937

2015 17,524 27,366 13,142 10,152 30,522 7,757 44,668

2020 18,407 28,003 13,432 10,244 32,137 7,954 45,969

2025 18,933 28,940 13,684 10,482 33,905 8,216 46,704

2030 19,591 30,109 13,999 10,778 36,112 8,545 47,622

2035 20,256 31,292 14,317 11,078 38,343 8,876 48,550

2040 20,928 32,486 14,638 11,381 40,596 9,211 49,487

CAGR 0.68% 0.62% 0.40% 0.41% 1.06% 0.62% 0.40%

Total 3,850 5,500 1,671 1,308 10,972 1,569 5,550

Unincorporated Area Incorporated Group Quarters County Total Population

104,324 148,307 17,006 269,637

107,452 151,132 17,006 275,590

113,789 156,145 17,006 286,940

118,982 160,863 17,006 296,851

125,467 166,755 17,006 309,288

132,023 172,712 17,006 321,741

138,644 178,727 17,006 334,377

0.95% 0.62% 0.00% 0.72%

34,320 30,420 0 64,740

County Total (Household Population)

252,631

258,584

269,934

279,845

292,222

304,736

317,371

0.76%

64,740

Notes: CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate; Growth scenario has not considered different communities development limitations or capacity at build-out; San Luis Obispo County’s Group Quarters population as of the 2010 Census was 17,006; Changes in the Group Quarters population has not been considered; Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: AECOM

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Table 18: AECOM 2040 Population Estimate by Jurisdiction (High) Jurisdiction Arroyo Grande Atascadero Grover Beach Morro Bay Paso Robles Pismo Beach San Luis Obispo

2010 17,078 26,986 12,967 10,073 29,624 7,642 43,937

2015 17,636 27,446 13,142 10,152 30,522 7,769 44,669

2020 18,781 28,271 13,432 10,244 32,137 7,995 45,972

2025 19,369 29,317 13,713 10,509 34,110 8,289 46,792

2030 20,107 30,629 14,066 10,842 36,586 8,657 47,822

2035 20,851 31,952 14,422 11,177 39,081 9,028 48,860

2040 21,594 33,274 14,778 11,512 41,576 9,398 49,897

CAGR 0.79% 0.70% 0.44% 0.45% 1.14% 0.69% 0.42%

Total 4,516 6,288 1,811 1,439 11,952 1,756 5,960

Unincorporated Area Incorporated Group Quarters County Total Population

104,324 148,307 17,006 269,637

107,796 151,338 17,006 276,140

114,934 156,833 17,006 288,773

120,729 162,098 17,006 299,833

128,005 168,708 17,006 313,719

135,338 175,370 17,006 327,714

142,668 182,030 17,006 341,704

1.05% 0.69% 0.00% 0.79%

38,344 33,723 0 72,067

County Total (Household Population)

252,631

259,134

271,767

282,827

296,713

310,707

324,699

0.84%

72,068

Notes: CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate; Growth scenario has not considered different communities development limitations or capacity at build-out; San Luis Obispo County’s Group Quarters population as of the 2010 Census was 17,006; Changes in the Group Quarters population has not been considered; Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: AECOM

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Table 19: AECOM 2040 Housing Unit Estimate by Jurisdiction (Low) Jurisdiction Arroyo Grande Atascadero Grover Beach Morro Bay Paso Robles Pismo Beach San Luis Obispo

2010 7,628 11,505 5,748 6,320 11,426 5,585 20,553

2015 7,738 11,573 5,787 6,328 11,900 5,629 20,844

2020 7,996 11,731 5,878 6,348 12,864 5,731 21,523

2025 8,230 12,197 5,973 6,451 13,860 5,845 21,937

2030 8,524 12,781 6,092 6,580 15,109 5,988 22,457

2035 8,821 13,371 6,211 6,711 16,371 6,132 22,982

2040 9,125 13,977 6,335 6,844 17,666 6,280 23,520

CAGR 0.60% 0.65% 0.32% 0.27% 1.46% 0.39% 0.45%

Total 1,497 2,472 587 524 6,240 695 2,967

Unincorporated Area Incorporated

48,550 68,765

49,450 69,799

51,550 72,071

53,419 74,494

55,762 77,531

58,128 80,598

60,556 83,747

0.74% 0.66%

12,006 14,982

117,315

119,249

123,621

127,913

133,293

138,726

144,303

0.69%

26,988

County Total

Notes: CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate; Growth scenario has not considered different communities development limitations or capacity at build-out; San Luis Obispo County’s Group Quarters population as of the 2010 Census was 17,006; Changes in the Group Quarters population has not been considered. Source: AECOM

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Table 20: AECOM 2040 Housing Unit Estimate by Jurisdiction (Mid) Jurisdiction Arroyo Grande Atascadero Grover Beach Morro Bay Paso Robles Pismo Beach San Luis Obispo

2010 7,628 11,505 5,748 6,320 11,426 5,585 20,553

2015 7,796 11,621 5,787 6,328 11,900 5,640 20,845

2020 8,188 11,893 5,878 6,348 12,864 5,768 21,526

2025 8,458 12,430 5,987 6,467 14,013 5,899 22,004

2030 8,795 13,101 6,124 6,615 15,447 6,063 22,600

2035 9,136 13,779 6,262 6,765 16,898 6,229 23,204

2040 9,481 14,464 6,401 6,916 18,362 6,397 23,813

CAGR 0.73% 0.77% 0.36% 0.30% 1.59% 0.45% 0.49%

Total 1,853 2,959 653 596 6,936 812 3,260

Unincorporated Area Incorporated

48,550 68,765

49,600 69,918

52,050 72,465

54,205 75,258

56,895 78,746

59,615 82,273

62,362 85,834

0.84% 0.74%

13,812 17,069

117,315

119,518

124,515

129,463

135,641

141,888

148,196

0.78%

30,881

County Total

Notes: CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate; Growth scenario has not considered different communities development limitations or capacity at build-out; San Luis Obispo County’s Group Quarters population as of the 2010 Census was 17,006; Changes in the Group Quarters population has not been considered. Source: AECOM

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Table 21: AECOM 2040 Housing Unit Estimate by Jurisdiction (High) Jurisdiction Arroyo Grande Atascadero Grover Beach Morro Bay Paso Robles Pismo Beach San Luis Obispo

2010 7,628 11,505 5,748 6,320 11,426 5,585 20,553

2015 7,854 11,670 5,787 6,328 11,900 5,651 20,846

2020 8,380 12,055 5,878 6,348 12,864 5,805 21,528

2025 8,681 12,654 6,000 6,481 14,146 5,952 22,061

2030 9,060 13,407 6,153 6,647 15,755 6,136 22,731

2035 9,441 14,166 6,307 6,815 17,377 6,321 23,405

2040 9,823 14,924 6,461 6,982 18,999 6,507 24,080

CAGR 0.85% 0.87% 0.39% 0.33% 1.71% 0.51% 0.53%

Total 2,195 3,419 713 662 7,573 922 3,527

Unincorporated Area Incorporated

48,550 68,765

49,750 70,036

52,550 72,858

54,954 75,975

57,973 79,888

61,015 83,832

64,057 87,775

0.93% 0.82%

15,507 19,010

117,315

119,786

125,408

130,929

137,861

144,847

151,832

0.86%

34,517

County Total

Notes: CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate; Growth scenario has not considered different communities development limitations or capacity at build-out; San Luis Obispo County’s Group Quarters population as of the 2010 Census was 17,006; Changes in the Group Quarters population has not been considered. Source: AECOM

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Table 22: AECOM 2040 Household Population Estimate by Sub-Region (Low) Sub-Region Incorporated North Coast North County Central County South County Total

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

CAGR

Total

10,073 56,610 43,937 37,687 148,307

10,152 57,808 44,667 38,298 150,925

10,244 59,872 45,964 39,376 155,457

10,450 62,217 46,602 40,280 159,549

10,708 65,158 47,401 41,412 164,679

10,969 68,127 48,208 42,556 169,860

11,237 71,175 49,037 43,730 175,179

0.37% 0.77% 0.37% 0.50% 0.56%

1,164 14,565 5,100 6,043 26,872

Unincorporated Area North Coast North County Central County South County Total

24,781 36,100 6,093 37,351 104,324

25,204 37,048 6,197 38,661 107,109

26,506 38,962 6,517 40,658 112,643

27,163 41,424 6,687 41,873 117,147

27,987 44,511 6,901 43,396 122,794

28,819 47,628 7,116 44,935 128,497

29,672 50,828 7,337 46,513 134,351

0.60% 1.15% 0.62% 0.73% 0.85%

4,892 14,728 1,245 9,163 30,027

County North Coast North County Central County South County County Total

34,854 92,710 50,030 75,038 252,631

35,356 94,855 50,864 76,959 258,034

36,750 98,834 52,481 80,034 268,100

37,613 103,641 53,289 82,153 276,696

38,695 109,668 54,302 84,808 287,473

39,788 115,755 55,325 87,490 298,357

40,909 122,003 56,374 90,243 309,529

0.54% 0.92% 0.40% 0.62% 0.68%

6,055 29,293 6,345 15,206 56,898

Notes: CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate; Growth scenario has not considered different communities development limitations or capacity at build-out; San Luis Obispo County’s Group Quarters population as of the 2010 Census was 17,006; Changes in the Group Quarters population has not been considered. Incorporated communities by sub-region: North Coast – Morro Bay; North County – Atascadero & Paso Robles; Central County – San Luis Obispo; South County – Arroyo Grande, Grover Beach and Pismo Beach Source: AECOM

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Table 23: AECOM 2040 Household Population Estimate by Sub-Region (Mid) Sub-Region Incorporated North Coast North County Central County South County Total

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

CAGR

Total

10,073 56,610 43,937 37,687 148,307

10,152 57,888 44,668 38,423 151,132

10,244 60,140 45,969 39,792 156,145

10,482 62,844 46,704 40,834 160,863

10,778 66,221 47,622 42,134 166,755

11,078 69,635 48,550 43,449 172,712

11,381 73,082 49,487 44,777 178,727

0.41% 0.85% 0.40% 0.58% 0.62%

1,308 16,472 5,550 7,090 30,420

Unincorporated Area North Coast North County Central County South County Total

24,781 36,100 6,093 37,351 104,324

25,285 37,166 6,217 38,785 107,452

26,776 39,358 6,583 41,072 113,789

27,533 42,197 6,779 42,472 118,982

28,479 45,741 7,025 44,222 125,467

29,435 49,325 7,272 45,990 132,023

30,401 52,944 7,523 47,776 138,644

0.68% 1.28% 0.71% 0.82% 0.95%

5,620 16,844 1,430 10,425 34,320

County North Coast North County Central County South County County Total

34,854 92,710 50,030 75,038 252,631

35,437 95,055 50,885 77,208 258,584

37,020 99,498 52,552 80,864 269,934

38,015 105,041 53,483 83,306 279,845

39,257 111,962 54,646 86,356 292,222

40,513 118,961 55,822 89,440 304,736

41,782 126,026 57,009 92,553 317,371

0.61% 1.03% 0.44% 0.70% 0.76%

6,928 33,316 6,980 17,515 64,740

Notes: CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate; Growth scenario has not considered different communities development limitations or capacity at build-out; San Luis Obispo County’s Group Quarters population as of the 2010 Census was 17,006; Changes in the Group Quarters population has not been considered. Incorporated communities by sub-region: North Coast – Morro Bay; North County – Atascadero & Paso Robles; Central County – San Luis Obispo; South County – Arroyo Grande, Grover Beach and Pismo Beach Source: AECOM

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Table 24: AECOM 2040 Household Population Estimate by Sub-Region (High) Sub-Region Incorporated North Coast North County Central County South County Total

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

CAGR

Total

10,073 56,610 43,937 37,687 148,307

10,152 57,969 44,669 38,548 151,338

10,244 60,409 45,972 40,208 156,833

10,509 63,426 46,792 41,370 162,098

10,842 67,215 47,822 42,830 168,708

11,177 71,033 48,860 44,300 175,370

11,512 74,850 49,897 45,771 182,030

0.45% 0.94% 0.42% 0.65% 0.69%

1,439 18,240 5,960 8,084 33,723

Unincorporated Area North Coast North County Central County South County Total

24,781 36,100 6,093 37,351 104,324

25,366 37,285 6,236 38,909 107,796

27,045 39,754 6,649 41,485 114,934

27,891 42,922 6,868 43,048 120,729

28,952 46,899 7,144 45,011 128,005

30,021 50,907 7,421 46,989 135,338

31,090 54,914 7,698 48,966 142,668

0.76% 1.41% 0.78% 0.91% 1.05%

6,310 18,814 1,605 11,615 38,344

County North Coast North County Central County South County County Total

34,854 92,710 50,030 75,038 252,631

35,518 95,254 50,906 77,457 259,134

37,289 100,163 52,621 81,693 271,767

38,400 106,348 53,660 84,419 282,827

39,794 114,114 54,965 87,841 296,713

41,198 121,940 56,280 91,289 310,707

42,603 129,764 57,595 94,737 324,699

0.67% 1.13% 0.47% 0.78% 0.84%

7,749 37,054 7,565 19,699 72,068

Notes: CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate; Growth scenario has not considered different communities development limitations or capacity at build-out; San Luis Obispo County’s Group Quarters population as of the 2010 Census was 17,006; Changes in the Group Quarters population has not been considered. Incorporated communities by sub-region: North Coast – Morro Bay; North County – Atascadero & Paso Robles; Central County – San Luis Obispo; South County – Arroyo Grande, Grover Beach and Pismo Beach Source: AECOM

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Table 25: AECOM 2040 Housing Unit Estimate by Sub-Region (Low) Sub-Region Incorporated North Coast North County Central County South County Total

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

CAGR

Total

6,320 22,931 20,553 18,961 68,765

6,328 23,473 20,844 19,154 69,799

6,348 24,595 21,523 19,605 72,071

6,451 26,057 21,937 20,048 74,494

6,580 27,891 22,457 20,603 77,531

6,711 29,742 22,982 21,164 80,598

6,844 31,643 23,520 21,740 83,747

0.27% 1.08% 0.45% 0.46% 0.66%

524 8,712 2,967 2,779 14,982

Unincorporated Area North Coast North County Central County South County Total

11,532 16,800 2,835 17,382 48,550

11,636 17,104 2,861 17,849 49,450

12,130 17,830 2,982 18,607 51,550

12,403 18,852 3,053 19,111 53,419

12,745 20,133 3,142 19,743 55,762

13,090 21,426 3,231 20,381 58,128

13,444 22,753 3,323 21,036 60,556

0.51% 1.02% 0.53% 0.64% 0.74%

1,911 5,953 487 3,654 12,006

17,852 39,731 23,388 36,343 117,315

17,965 40,577 23,705 37,003 119,249

18,478 42,425 24,505 38,212 123,621

18,854 44,909 24,990 39,159 127,913

19,325 48,023 25,599 40,346 133,293

19,800 51,168 26,213 41,545 138,726

20,288 54,396 26,843 42,776 144,303

0.43% 1.05% 0.46% 0.54% 0.69%

2,436 14,665 3,455 6,433 26,988

County North Coast North County Central County South County County Total

Notes: CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate; Growth scenario has not considered different communities development limitations or capacity at build-out; San Luis Obispo County’s Group Quarters population as of the 2010 Census was 17,006; Changes in the Group Quarters population has not been considered. Incorporated communities by sub-region: North Coast – Morro Bay; North County – Atascadero & Paso Robles; Central County – San Luis Obispo; South County – Arroyo Grande, Grover Beach and Pismo Beach Source: AECOM

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Table 26: AECOM 2040 Housing Unit Estimate by Sub-Region (Mid) Sub-Region Incorporated North Coast North County Central County South County Total

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

CAGR

Total

6,320 22,931 20,553 18,961 68,765

6,328 23,521 20,845 19,223 69,918

6,348 24,757 21,526 19,834 72,465

6,467 26,443 22,004 20,345 75,258

6,615 28,548 22,600 20,982 78,746

6,765 30,677 23,204 21,627 82,273

6,916 32,826 23,813 22,278 85,834

0.30% 1.20% 0.49% 0.54% 0.74%

596 9,895 3,260 3,317 17,069

Unincorporated Area North Coast North County Central County South County Total

11,532 16,800 2,835 17,382 48,550

11,671 17,156 2,870 17,903 49,600

12,248 18,003 3,011 18,787 52,050

12,562 19,181 3,093 19,368 54,205

12,955 20,652 3,194 20,094 56,895

13,351 22,139 3,297 20,828 59,615

13,752 23,640 3,401 21,569 62,362

0.59% 1.15% 0.61% 0.72% 0.84%

2,220 6,840 566 4,187 13,812

County North Coast North County Central County South County County Total

17,852 39,731 23,388 36,343 117,315

18,000 40,677 23,714 37,126 119,518

18,596 42,760 24,537 38,621 124,515

19,029 45,624 25,097 39,713 129,463

19,570 49,200 25,795 41,077 135,641

20,116 52,816 26,501 42,455 141,888

20,668 56,467 27,214 43,847 148,196

0.49% 1.18% 0.51% 0.63% 0.78%

2,816 16,735 3,825 7,504 30,881

Notes: CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate; Growth scenario has not considered different communities development limitations or capacity at build-out; San Luis Obispo County’s Group Quarters population as of the 2010 Census was 17,006; Changes in the Group Quarters population has not been considered. Incorporated communities by sub-region: North Coast – Morro Bay; North County – Atascadero & Paso Robles; Central County – San Luis Obispo; South County – Arroyo Grande, Grover Beach and Pismo Beach Source: AECOM

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Table 27: AECOM 2040 Housing Unit Estimate by Sub-Region (High) Sub-Region Incorporated North Coast North County Central County South County Total

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

CAGR

Total

6,320 22,931 20,553 18,961 68,765

6,328 23,570 20,846 19,292 70,036

6,348 24,919 21,528 20,063 72,858

6,481 26,800 22,061 20,633 75,975

6,647 29,162 22,731 21,348 79,888

6,815 31,543 23,405 22,070 83,832

6,982 33,923 24,080 22,791 87,775

0.33% 1.31% 0.53% 0.62% 0.82%

662 10,992 3,527 3,830 19,010

Unincorporated Area North Coast North County Central County South County Total

11,532 16,800 2,835 17,382 48,550

11,707 17,208 2,878 17,957 49,750

12,366 18,176 3,040 18,968 52,550

12,716 19,491 3,131 19,616 54,954

13,157 21,141 3,245 20,431 57,973

13,600 22,804 3,360 21,251 61,015

14,044 24,466 3,475 22,072 64,057

0.66% 1.26% 0.68% 0.80% 0.93%

2,511 7,666 640 4,689 15,507

17,852 39,731 23,388 36,343 117,315

18,035 40,778 23,724 37,249 119,786

18,714 43,095 24,568 39,031 125,408

19,197 46,291 25,192 40,249 130,929

19,803 50,303 25,976 41,779 137,861

20,415 54,347 26,765 43,321 144,847

21,026 58,389 27,555 44,862 151,832

0.55% 1.29% 0.55% 0.70% 0.86%

3,174 18,658 4,166 8,519 34,517

County North Coast North County Central County South County County Total

Notes: CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate; Growth scenario has not considered different communities development limitations or capacity at build-out; San Luis Obispo County’s Group Quarters population as of the 2010 Census was 17,006; Changes in the Group Quarters population has not been considered. Incorporated communities by sub-region: North Coast – Morro Bay; North County – Atascadero & Paso Robles; Central County – San Luis Obispo; South County – Arroyo Grande, Grover Beach and Pismo Beach Source: AECOM

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Table 28: AECOM 2040 Employment Estimates for SLO County (Low)

Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Utilities Transportation and Warehousing Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education Services, Health Care, Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation Food Services and Drinking Places Other Services Government Total

2010 4,900 5,800 2,500 12,900 2,000 1,500 1,200 3,900 9,800 11,300 1,500 3,500 9,700 4,500 20,900 95,900

2015 5,000 5,700 2,700 13,600 2,100 1,600 1,200 3,900 10,700 12,300 1,600 3,700 10,300 4,700 21,900 101,300

2020 5,200 5,600 2,900 14,400 2,200 1,800 1,200 3,900 11,600 13,300 1,700 4,000 11,000 5,000 22,900 106,700

2025 5,200 5,400 3,100 14,900 2,300 1,900 1,200 3,800 12,400 14,100 1,800 4,200 11,500 5,200 23,400 110,200

2030 5,300 5,200 3,200 15,400 2,300 2,000 1,200 3,800 13,300 15,100 1,800 4,400 12,000 5,400 24,000 114,500

Notes: CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate; Totals do not add due to rounding; Other Services excludes 814-Private household workers Source: AECOM

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2035 5,300 5,100 3,400 16,000 2,400 2,200 1,100 3,700 14,300 16,100 1,900 4,600 12,600 5,600 24,700 119,000

2040 5,300 4,900 3,600 16,600 2,500 2,300 1,100 3,700 15,300 17,200 2,000 4,800 13,100 5,800 25,300 123,500

Numeric Change 400 -900 1,100 3,700 500 800 -100 -200 5,500 5,900 500 1,300 3,400 1,300 4,400 27,600

CAGR 0.26% -0.56% 1.22% 0.84% 0.75% 1.44% -0.29% -0.18% 1.50% 1.41% 0.96% 1.06% 1.01% 0.85% 0.64% 0.85%

Table 29: AECOM 2040 Employment Estimates for SLO County (Mid)

Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Utilities Transportation and Warehousing Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education Services, Health Care, Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation Food Services and Drinking Places Other Services Government Total

2010 4,900 5,800 2,500 12,900 2,000 1,500 1,200 3,900 9,800 11,300 1,500 3,500 9,700 4,500 20,900 95,900

2015 5,000 5,700 2,700 13,600 2,100 1,600 1,200 3,900 10,700 12,300 1,600 3,700 10,300 4,700 21,900 101,300

2020 5,200 5,600 2,900 14,400 2,200 1,800 1,200 3,900 11,600 13,300 1,700 4,000 11,000 5,000 22,900 106,700

2025 5,200 5,400 3,100 14,900 2,300 1,900 1,200 3,800 12,400 14,200 1,800 4,200 11,500 5,200 23,500 110,700

2030 5,300 5,300 3,300 15,600 2,300 2,100 1,200 3,800 13,400 15,300 1,900 4,400 12,100 5,400 24,300 115,700

Notes: CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate; Totals do not add due to rounding; Other Services excludes 814-Private household workers Source: AECOM

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2035 5,400 5,200 3,500 16,300 2,400 2,200 1,200 3,800 14,500 16,400 2,000 4,700 12,800 5,700 25,100 120,800

2040 5,400 5,000 3,700 16,900 2,500 2,400 1,100 3,700 15,600 17,500 2,100 4,900 13,400 5,900 25,800 125,900

Numeric Change 500 -800 1,200 4,000 500 900 -100 -200 5,800 6,200 600 1,400 3,700 1,400 4,900 30,000

CAGR 0.32% -0.49% 1.32% 0.90% 0.75% 1.58% -0.29% -0.18% 1.56% 1.47% 1.13% 1.13% 1.08% 0.91% 0.70% 0.91%

Table 30: AECOM 2040 Employment Estimates for SLO County (High)

Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Utilities Transportation and Warehousing Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education Services, Health Care, Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation Food Services and Drinking Places Other Services Government Total

2010 4,900 5,800 2,500 12,900 2,000 1,500 1,200 3,900 9,800 11,300 1,500 3,500 9,700 4,500 20,900 95,900

2015 5,000 5,700 2,700 13,600 2,100 1,600 1,200 3,900 10,700 12,300 1,600 3,700 10,300 4,700 21,900 101,300

2020 5,200 5,600 2,900 14,400 2,200 1,800 1,200 3,900 11,600 13,300 1,700 4,000 11,000 5,000 22,900 106,700

2025 5,500 5,700 3,200 15,700 2,400 2,000 1,200 4,000 13,100 14,900 1,900 4,400 12,100 5,500 24,700 116,400

2030 5,600 5,600 3,500 16,500 2,500 2,200 1,200 4,000 14,200 16,100 2,000 4,700 12,800 5,700 25,700 122,300

Notes: CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate; Totals do not add due to rounding; Other Services excludes 814-Private household workers Source: AECOM

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2035 5,700 5,500 3,700 17,200 2,600 2,400 1,200 4,000 15,400 17,400 2,100 5,000 13,500 6,000 26,600 128,200

2040 5,800 5,300 3,900 18,000 2,700 2,500 1,200 4,000 16,600 18,700 2,200 5,200 14,300 6,300 27,500 134,100

Numeric Change 900 -500 1,400 5,100 700 1,000 0 100 6,800 7,400 700 1,700 4,600 1,800 6,600 38,200

CAGR 0.56% -0.30% 1.49% 1.12% 1.01% 1.72% 0.00% 0.08% 1.77% 1.69% 1.28% 1.33% 1.30% 1.13% 0.92% 1.12%

\

Table 31: AECOM 2040 Employment Estimates by Sub-Region (Low)

North Coast North County Central County South County County (Total)

2010 8,000 26,200 41,300 20,400 95,900

2015 8,400 27,500 43,600 21,600 101,300

2020 8,900 29,000 46,100 22,800 106,700

2025 9,200 29,800 47,700 23,500 110,200

2030 9,500 30,900 49,600 24,500 114,500

2035 9,900 32,000 51,700 25,400 119,000

2040 10,300 33,100 53,700 26,400 123,500

Numeric Change 2,300 6,900 12,400 6,000 27,600

CAGR 0.85% 0.78% 0.88% 0.86% 0.85%

Numeric Change 2,500 7,600 13,400 6,500 30,000

CAGR 0.91% 0.85% 0.94% 0.93% 0.91%

Numeric Change 3,200 9,800 17,000 8,200 38,200

CAGR 1.13% 1.06% 1.16% 1.13% 1.12%

Note: CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate; Totals do not add due to rounding; projections by Industry delivered electronically. Source: AECOM

Table 32: AECOM 2040 Employment Estimates by Sub-Region (Mid)

North Coast North County Central County South County County (Total)

2010 8,000 26,200 41,300 20,400 95,900

2015 8,400 27,500 43,600 21,600 101,300

2020 8,900 29,000 46,100 22,800 106,700

2025 9,200 30,000 47,900 23,600 110,700

2030 9,600 31,200 50,100 24,700 115,700

2035 10,100 32,500 52,500 25,800 120,800

2040 10,500 33,800 54,700 26,900 125,900

Note: CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate; Totals do not add due to rounding; projections by Industry delivered electronically. Source: AECOM

Table 33: AECOM 2040 Employment Estimates by Sub-Region (High)

North Coast North County Central County South County County (Total)

2010 8,000 26,200 41,300 20,400 95,900

2015 8,400 27,500 43,600 21,600 101,300

2020 8,900 29,000 46,100 22,800 106,700

2025 9,700 31,500 50,400 24,900 116,400

2030 10,200 33,000 53,000 26,100 122,300

2035 10,700 34,500 55,700 27,400 128,200

2040 11,200 36,000 58,300 28,600 134,100

Note: CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate; Totals do not add due to rounding; projections by Industry delivered electronically. Source: AECOM

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\

Table 34: AECOM 2040 Employment Estimates by Jurisdiction (Low) 2010 5,200 8,400 6,100 3,500 11,800 4,000 33,000

2015 5,500 8,800 6,400 3,700 12,400 4,200 34,900

2020 5,800 9,300 6,800 4,000 13,000 4,500 36,900

2025 6,000 9,600 6,900 4,100 13,400 4,700 38,400

2030 6,300 9,900 7,200 4,300 13,800 4,900 39,900

2035 6,500 10,300 7,400 4,500 14,300 5,100 41,600

2040 6,800 10,700 7,600 4,700 14,700 5,400 43,400

Unincorporated Area Incorporated Area

23,900 72,000

25,100 75,900

26,400 80,300

27,300 83,100

28,200 86,200

29,200 89,800

30,200 93,300

County Total

95,900

101,300

106,700

110,200

114,500

119,000

123,500

Arroyo Grande Atascadero Grover Beach Morro Bay Paso Robles Pismo Beach San Luis Obispo

Note: Totals do not add due to rounding Source: AECOM

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Table 35: AECOM 2040 Employment Estimates by Jurisdiction (Mid) 2010 5,200 8,400 6,100 3,500 11,800 4,000 33,000

2015 5,500 8,800 6,400 3,700 12,400 4,200 34,900

2020 5,800 9,300 6,800 4,000 13,000 4,500 36,900

2025 6,000 9,600 7,000 4,100 13,400 4,700 38,400

2030 6,300 10,000 7,200 4,300 14,000 5,000 40,300

2035 6,600 10,500 7,500 4,600 14,500 5,200 42,400

Unincorporated Area Incorporated Area

23,900 72,000

25,100 75,900

26,400 80,300

27,300 83,300

28,500 87,200

29,800 91,400

30,800 95,100

County Total

95,900

101,300

106,700

110,700

115,700

120,800

125,900

Arroyo Grande Atascadero Grover Beach Morro Bay Paso Robles Pismo Beach San Luis Obispo

Note: Totals do not add due to rounding Source: AECOM

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2040 6,900 10,900 7,800 4,800 15,000 5,500 44,200

Table 36: AECOM 2040 Employment Estimates by Jurisdiction (High) 2010 5,200 8,400 6,100 3,500 11,800 4,000 33,000

2015 5,500 8,800 6,400 3,700 12,400 4,200 34,900

2020 5,800 9,300 6,800 4,000 13,000 4,500 36,900

2025 6,400 10,100 7,300 4,300 14,100 5,000 40,400

2030 6,700 10,600 7,700 4,600 14,800 5,300 42,600

2035 7,000 11,100 8,000 4,800 15,400 5,500 44,900

Unincorporated Area Incorporated Area

23,900 72,000

25,100 75,900

26,400 80,300

28,700 87,600

30,100 92,200

31,500 96,800

32,900 101,300

County Total

95,900

101,300

106,700

116,400

122,300

128,200

134,100

Arroyo Grande Atascadero Grover Beach Morro Bay Paso Robles Pismo Beach San Luis Obispo

Note: Totals do not add due to rounding Source: AECOM

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2040 7,400 11,600 8,300 5,100 16,000 5,800 47,100

\

V. Projections for Unincorporated Areas in SLO County Table 37: Unincorporated SLO County Population Projection (Low)

[to come]

Source: SLO County

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Table 38: Unincorporated SLO County Population Projection (Mid)

[to come]

Source: SLO County

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Table 39: Unincorporated SLO County Population Projection (High)

[to come]

Source: SLO County

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VI. Appendix The information presented herein summarizes important historic trends relating to population, housing, and employment change within (1) SLO County; (2) the SLO County, Santa Barbara County, and Monterey County (Region or Central Coast); and State of California . A number of data sources were used in this analysis including: 2005 – 2009 American Community Survey (ACS) United States Census (Census) California Department of Finance (DOF) California Employment Development Department (EDD) United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) United States Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) Internal Revenue Service (IRS) California Association of Realtors DataQuick WiserTrade PWC Money Tree CoStar AECOM will use this information to inform forecasts provided at the SLO County level as it relates to state trends to the year 204020. We have focused this analysis on three components of change: Population21 Housing Employment Each of the respective sections has various data points selected by AECOM that we believe will be key factors in estimating long-term projections for the SLO County. The selected timeframe for this analysis is the last 20 years (1990 to 2010). In some instances, information is provided back to 1970 and in other instances the data is limited to a shorter time frame (primarily due to data constraints). To the extent possible, the SLO County is represented in blue, the Central Coast is represented in 22 red, and the state is represented in green in the following figures . The last section of this set of working papers reviews the current long-term forecasts at the state and SLO County level. Based on our literature review we have discovered limited revisions to long-term forecasts for population, housing, and employment since our previous study. However, there have been a number of recent studies that have estimated the near-term changes23. This information will form the basis for adjustments to our previous forecasts as we extrapolate out to the Year 2040.

20

Sub-regional data has been collected, but will not inform the preliminary “top down” estimates. In most cases population refers to households, exclusive of group quarter population. Due to reporting methods utilized by the DOF and Census time periods may not align in all data sets. 21

22 23

This version is a print-only copy with some tables in grey scale for duplication.

California County Projections, Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy, Public Policy Institute of California, Legislative Analysis Office, and UCLA Anderson Forecast.

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Population Household Change 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Households

Figure 7: SLO County Household Change from Previous Year (1990-2010)

SLO County Household Change from Previous Year Linear (SLO County Household Change from Previous Year) st

st

Note: Change from January 1 to January 1 of Previous Year in all years except 1991 and 2001 where change is based on Decennial Census data. Source: DOF, Census, and AECOM

0.705% 0.700% 0.695% 0.690% 0.685% 0.680% 0.675% 0.670%

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

County Households as a Percent of State Households

Figure 8: SLO County Households as a Percent of State Households (1991 – 2010)

SLO County Share of California Households Linear (SLO County Share of California Households) Note: Household Population as of January 1 Source: DOF and AECOM

AECOM

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24.0% 23.8% 23.6% 23.4% 23.2% 23.0% 22.8% 22.6% 22.4% 22.2% 22.0%

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

County Households as a Percent of Region Households

Figure 9: SLO County Households as a Percent of Region Households (1991 – 2010)

SLO County Share of Central Coast Households Linear (SLO County Share of Central Coast Households) Note: Household Population as of January 1 Source: DOF and AECOM

st

135.0 130.0 125.0 120.0 115.0 110.0 105.0 100.0 95.0 90.0

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Household Growth Index (1991 = 100)

Figure 10: Household Growth Index for SLO County, Region, and State (1991 – 2010)

SLO County Note: Household Population as of January 1 Source: DOF and AECOM

AECOM

Central Coast

California

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Components of Change

14%

300,000

10%

200,000

6%

100,000

2%

0 -2%

-100,000

-6%

-200,000

Net Domestic Migration

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

-14%

1994

-400,000

1993

-10%

1992

-300,000

Unemployment Rate

400,000

1991

Net Domestic Migration

Figure 11: Net Migration and Unemployment in California

Civilian Unemployment Rate

st

Note: Estimates as of July 1 Source: EDD, DOF, and AECOM

Figure 12: Births and Deaths in SLO County (1971 – 2010) 3,500

3,000

Numeric Change

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

0

Births

Note: Estimates as of July 1 Source: DOF and AECOM

AECOM

Deaths

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Figure 13: Natural Increase and Net Migration in SLO County (1971 – 2010) 10,000 9,000 8,000

Numeric Change

7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000

1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

0

Natural Increase

Note: Estimates as of July 1 Source: DOF and AECOM

Net Migration

st

Figure 14: Net Migration in SLO County: Foreign and Domestic (1991 – 2010) 4,500 4,000 3,500

Numeric Change

3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Net Foreign Immigration

Note: Estimates as of July 1 Source: DOF and AECOM

AECOM

Net Domestic Migration

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Table 40: SLO County Share of Historic Household Population Change in the Region (1970 – 2010) Numeric Natural Net Change Increase Migration 1970-1980 38.9% 9.0% 60.6% 1980-1990 31.4% 12.4% 46.0% 1990-2000 27.8% 8.2% 118.7% 2000-2010 27.6% 6.3% 166.9% Note: Estimates as of July 1 Source: DOF and AECOM

st

Table 41: SLO County Share of Historic Household Population Change in the State (1970 – 2010) Numeric Natural Net Change Increase Migration 1970-1980 1.3% 0.3% 2.1% 1980-1990 1.0% 0.4% 1.6% 1990-2000 0.7% 0.2% 2.6% 2000-2010 0.6% 0.2% 1.2% Note: Estimates as of July 1 Source: DOF and AECOM

st

Percent of Total US Migration by Geography to the County

Figure 15: US Migration to SLO County by Geography (2005 – 2008) 30% 23%

25%

26%

20% 15%

13%

10% 5%

10% 4%

4%

4%

4%

4%

3%

3%

3%

0%

Source: IRS and AECOM

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Figure 16: US Migration to SLO County from Other States by Geography (2005 – 2008) Northeast, 8%

Midwest, 12%

South, 20%

West, 60%

Source: IRS and AECOM

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Demographics Figure 17: Median Age (2009) 40.0

38.8

39.0 38.0

Age in Years

37.0 36.0 35.0

34.6 33.7

34.0 32.5

33.0 32.0 31.0 30.0 29.0 California

Monterey

SLO County

Santa Barbara

Source: 2005 – 2009 ACS

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Figure 18: Age Cohorts (2009) 85 years and over 75 to 84 years 65 to 74 years 60 to 64 years 55 to 59 years 45 to 54 years 35 to 44 years 25 to 34 years 20 to 24 years 15 to 19 years 10 to 14 years 5 to 9 years Under 5 years

2.3%

4.9% 5.3%

7.3% 7.0% 12.1%

8.5% 9.1%

5.5% 4.8% 5.1%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.5%

12.8%

15.0%

20.0%

SLO County 85 years and over 75 to 84 years 65 to 74 years 60 to 64 years 55 to 59 years 45 to 54 years 35 to 44 years 25 to 34 years 20 to 24 years 15 to 19 years 10 to 14 years 5 to 9 years Under 5 years 0.0%

1.8%

4.4%

6.0% 4.5% 5.8%

8.6% 6.4% 6.1% 7.4% 2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

13.7% 12.9% 11.6% 10.7%

8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0%

Central Coast 85 years and over 75 to 84 years 65 to 74 years 60 to 64 years 55 to 59 years 45 to 54 years 35 to 44 years 25 to 34 years 20 to 24 years 15 to 19 years 10 to 14 years 5 to 9 years Under 5 years 0.0%

1.5%

3.8%

5.7% 4.3% 5.5%

7.2% 7.3% 7.3% 6.8% 7.4% 2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

13.9% 14.7% 14.6%

8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0%

California Source: 2005 – 2009 ACS

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Figure 19: California Population Pyramid (2009) 85 and over 80 to 84 75 to 79 70 to 74 67 to 69 65 and 66 62 to 64 60 and 61 55 to 59 50 to 54 45 to 49 40 to 44 35 to 39 30 to 34 25 to 29 22 to 24 21 20 18 and 19 15 to 17 10 to 14 5 to 9 Under 5

-0.5% -0.7% -0.9% -1.1% -0.8% -0.7% -1.1% -0.9%

1.0% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% 0.9% 0.7% 1.2% 1.0%

-2.7% -3.3% -3.7% -3.8% -3.8% -3.7% -3.9% -2.2%

2.8% 3.3% 3.7% 3.6% 3.6% 3.4% 3.6% 2.0%

-0.8% -0.8% -1.5% -2.3%

0.7% 0.7% 1.4% 2.2%

-3.7% -3.5% -3.8%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

% Female % Male

3.5% 3.3% 3.6%

4.0%

6.0%

Source: 2005 – 2009 ACS

Figure 20: SLO County Population Pyramid (2005 – 2009) 85 and over 80 to 84 75 to 79 70 to 74 67 to 69 65 and 66 62 to 64 60 and 61 55 to 59 50 to 54 45 to 49 40 to 44 35 to 39 30 to 34 25 to 29 22 to 24 21 20 18 and 19 15 to 17 10 to 14 5 to 9 Under 5

-0.8% -0.9% -1.2% -1.5% -1.1% -0.8% -1.6% -1.1%

1.4% 1.4% 1.5% 1.7% 1.3% 0.9% 1.6% 1.0%

-3.4% -3.9% -3.9% -3.4% -3.2% -2.6% -2.5% -4.0% -1.5% -1.6% -2.7% -1.9% -2.9% -2.4% -2.6%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

3.6% 3.9% 3.8% 2.9% 2.6% 1.8% 1.7% 2.8% 1.3% 1.6% 2.6% 1.8% 2.6% 2.4% 2.5%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

% Female % Male

6.0%

Source: 2005 – 2009 ACS

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Figure 21: SLO County Race Distribution (2009) American Indian Alone, 0.6 Black Alone, 1.9

Asian Alone, 3.0

Other (not Hispanic), 2.4 Hispanic, 18.8

White Alone, 73.3

Source: 2005 – 2009 ACS

Figure 22: Monterey County Race Distribution (2009) American Other (not Indian Hispanic), 2.8 Alone, 0.3

Asian Alone, 6.1

Black Alone, 3.1

Hispanic, 52.1 White Alone, 35.7

Source: 2005 – 2009 ACS

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Figure 23: Santa Barbara County Race Distribution (2009) American Indian Black Alone, 1.8 Alone, 0.5

Asian Alone, 4.2

Other (not Hispanic), 2.2

Hispanic, 38.8

White Alone, 52.5

Source: 2005 – 2009 ACS

Figure 24: California Race Distribution (2009) Asian Alone, 12.1

Other (not Hispanic), 2.4

American Indian Alone, 0.5

Other (not Hispanic), 2.7

Hispanic, 36.1

Black Alone, 6.0

White Alone, 42.5

Source: 2005 – 2009 ACS

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Figure 25: Household Formation: Family Households (2009)

Percent in Family Households

74.0% 71.3%

72.0% 70.0%

68.4%

68.0% 66.0%

63.7%

64.0%

61.9%

62.0% 60.0% 58.0% 56.0% California

Monterey County

SLO County

Santa Barbara County

Source: 2005 – 2009 ACS

Percent of Population 25 years and over with Bachelor's Degree or Higher

Figure 26: Educational Attainment (2009) 35% 30%

31%

30%

30% 24%

25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% California

California

Monterey County

Monterey County

SLO County

SLO County

Santa Barbara County

Santa Barbara County

Source: 2005 – 2009 ACS

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Housing Building Permits

Building Permit Index (1990 = 100)

Figure 27: Residential Building Permit Index in SLO County (1999 – 2009) 160.0 140.0 120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 New Residential Building Permits Linear (New Residential Building Permits ) Source: Census and AECOM

Figure 28: Residential Building Permit Distribution in SLO County (1999 – 2009) Percent of Total Building Permits

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 New Single Family Building Permits

New Multi-Family Building Permits

Source: Census and AECOM

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Building Permit Index (1999 = 100)

Figure 29: Single-Family Residential Building Permit Index in SLO County (1999 – 2009) 140.0 120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 New Single Family Building Permits Linear (New Single Family Building Permits ) Source: Census and AECOM

Building Permit Index (1999 = 100)

Figure 30: Multi-Family Residential Building Permit Index in SLO County (1999 – 2009) 500.0 450.0 400.0 350.0 300.0 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 0.0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 New Multi-Family Building Permits Linear (New Multi-Family Building Permits ) Source: Census and AECOM

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Housing Unit Change Figure 31: Annual Housing Unit Change in SLO County (1991 – 2010) 2,500

Housing Units

2,000 1,500 1,000 500

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

0

Housing Unit Change from Previous Year Linear (Housing Unit Change from Previous Year) Note: Data from DOF as of January 1 except for Year 2000 which provided a lower housing unit estimate than the DOF and hence re-established the housing unit count in the County. The decline in housing between 2000 and 2001 has been removed as it is hypothetical. Source: DOF, Census, and AECOM

1.050% 1.000% 0.950% 0.900% 0.850% 0.800%

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

County Housing Units as a Percent of State Housing Units

Figure 32: SLO County Share of State Housing Units (1991 – 2010)

SLO County Share of California Housing Units Linear (SLO County Share of California Housing Units) Source: DOF, Census, and AECOM

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31.00% 30.00% 29.00% 28.00% 27.00% 26.00% 25.00% 24.00%

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

County Housing Units as a Percent of Region Housing Units

Figure 33: SLO County Share of Region Housing Units (1991 – 2010)

SLO County Share of Central Coast Housing Units Linear (SLO County Share of Central Coast Housing Units) Source: DOF, Census, and AECOM

135.0 130.0 125.0 120.0 115.0 110.0 105.0 100.0 95.0 90.0

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Housing Unit Growth Index (1991 = 100)

Figure 34: Housing Unit Growth Index (1991 = 100) (1991 – 2010)

SLO County

Central Coast

California

Source: DOF, Census, and AECOM

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Housing Characteristics Figure 35: Persons per Household in SLO County (1991 – 2010)

Persons Per Household

2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

2.3

SLO County Persons Per Household Linear (SLO County Persons Per Household) Source: DOF and AECOM

Figure 36: US Migration to SLO County Persons per Household (2005 – 2008) Total US Migration

1.71 1.67 1.71 1.60 1.86 1.85 1.72 1.70 1.62 1.49 1.94 1.68 1.93

Other California Counties Tulare County Ventura County Orange County Kern County Santa Barbara County 0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

Average Person per Household Source: IRS and AECOM

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Figure 37: Housing Tenure (2009) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

42.1

46.2

57.9

53.8

California

Monterey County

Owner-occupied Percent

38.8

45.7

61.2

54.3

SLO County

Santa Barbara County

Renter-occupied Percent

Source: 2005 – 2009 ACS and AECOM

Residential Real Estate Figure 38: SLO County Home Prices (Nominal) (1998 – 2009) $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 SLO County Median Home Price ($000s) Source: DataQuick and AECOM

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AECOM

Q1 1990 Q1 1991 Q1 1992 Q1 1993 Q1 1994 Q1 1995 Q1 1996 Q1 1997 Q1 1998 Q1 1999 Q1 2000 Q1 2001 Q1 2002 Q1 2003 Q1 2004 Q1 2005 Q1 2006 Q1 2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010

Percent of County Households than can Afford Median County Home Price

Figure 39: SLO County Housing Affordability Index (1990 – 2010) 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%

SLO County Linear (SLO County)

Source: California Association of Realtors and AECOM

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Employment Employment Change 150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0 100.0 90.0

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Employment Growth (All Industries) Index (1990 = 100)

Figure 40: Employment Growth Index (1990 = 100) (1990 – 2009)

SLO County

Central Coast

California

Source: EDD and AECOM

Figure 41: Civilian Unemployment Rate (1990 – 2009) Civilian Unemployment Rate

14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

0.0%

SLO County

Central Coast

California

Source: EDD and AECOM

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Figure 42: Change in Total SLO County Employment from Previous Year (1991 – 2009) 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 -2,000 -4,000 2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

-6,000

Total, All Industries Numeric Change from Previous Year Linear (Total, All Industries Numeric Change from Previous Year) Source: EDD and AECOM

Figure 43: SLO County Share of State Employment (1991 – 2009)

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

0.80% 0.70% 0.60% 0.50% 0.40% 0.30% 0.20% 0.10% 0.00%

Total, All Industries Employment as a Percent of Total, All Industries Employment in CA Linear (Total, All Industries Employment as a Percent of Total, All Industries Employment in CA)

Source: EDD and AECOM

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Employment Composition Figure 44: Employment by Industry in SLO County (2009) Local Government Retail Trade Educational & Health Services State Government Food Services & Drinking Places Professional & Business Services Manufacturing Mining, Logging, and Construction Other Services Financial Activities Total Farm Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Accommodation Wholesale Trade Arts, Entertainment & Recreation Information Federal Government

5.4% 5.2% 4.4% 3.9% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% 2.3% 1.5% 1.3% 0.6%

12.9% 12.5% 11.1% 9.6% 9.6% 8.7%

Source: EDD and AECOM

Figure 45: Employment Change by Industry in SLO County (1990 – 2009) Local Government Mining, Logging, and Construction Other Services Food Services & Drinking Places Retail Trade Accommodation Professional & Business Services Federal Government Wholesale Trade Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Manufacturing Financial Activities State Government Arts, Entertainment & Recreation Educational & Health Services -100 Total Farm -200 Information -200

5,100 5,000 3,300 2,500 1,700 1,700 1,200 1,200 1,000 800 500 400 100 100

Source: EDD and AECOM

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Figure 46: Employment Change by Industry in SLO County (2000 – 2009) Educational & Health Services Accommodation Local Government Food Services & Drinking Places State Government Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Arts, Entertainment & Recreation Financial Activities Other Services Retail Trade Professional & Business Services Wholesale Trade Federal Government -200 Information -500 Mining, Logging, and Construction -800 Total Farm -900 Manufacturing -1,900

800 700 700 600 600 400 300 200 200 100 0

2,600

Source: EDD and AECOM

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Figure 47: Location Quotient (Select industries compared to State) (2010) NAICS 62 Health care and social assistance

1.1

NAICS 72 Accommodation and food services

1.7

NAICS 44-45 Retail trade

1.3

NAICS 23 Construction

1.3 0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

SLO County

NAICS 62 Health care and social assistance

0.72

NAICS 72 Accommodation and food services

1.31

NAICS 44-45 Retail trade

0.91

NAICS 23 Construction

0.68 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40

Monterey County

NAICS 62 Health care and social assistance

1.0

NAICS 72 Accommodation and food services

1.3

NAICS 44-45 Retail trade

1.0

NAICS 23 Construction

1.1 0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

Santa Barbara County Note: location quotient is a measure to compare the industrial activity levels among different areas. Greater than 1 shows strength in that particular sector. Source: BLS and AECOM

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Employment Wages Figure 48: Median Household Income (2009) Median Household Income ($2009)

$61,000

$60,392 $59,693

$60,000

$59,350

$59,000 $58,000 $57,000 $55,555

$56,000 $55,000 $54,000 $53,000 California

Monterey County

SLO County

Santa Barbara County

Source: 2005 – 2009 ACS

Figure 49: Mean Household Income (2009) Mean Household Income ($2009)

$84,000

$83,178

$82,948

$82,000 $80,000

$78,620

$78,000 $76,000 $73,775

$74,000 $72,000 $70,000 $68,000 California

Monterey County

SLO County

Santa Barbara County

Source: 2005 – 2009 ACS

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Household Income

Figure 50: SLO County and California Household Distribution by Income (2009) $200,000 or more $150,000 to $199,999 $125,000 to $149,999 $100,000 to $124,999 $75,000 to $99,999 $60,000 to $74,999 $50,000 to $59,999 $45,000 to $49,999 $40,000 to $44,999 $35,000 to $39,999 $30,000 to $34,999 $25,000 to $29,999 $20,000 to $24,999 $15,000 to $19,999 $10,000 to $14,999 Less than $10,000

4% 5% 5% 9% 12% 11% 8% 4% 5% 4% 5% 5% 6% 5% 6% 6% 0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Household Income

SLO County $200,000 or more $150,000 to $199,999 $125,000 to $149,999 $100,000 to $124,999 $75,000 to $99,999 $60,000 to $74,999 $50,000 to $59,999 $45,000 to $49,999 $40,000 to $44,999 $35,000 to $39,999 $30,000 to $34,999 $25,000 to $29,999 $20,000 to $24,999 $15,000 to $19,999 $10,000 to $14,999 Less than $10,000

6% 6% 6% 9% 13% 10% 8% 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

California Source: 2005 – 2009 ACS

AECOM

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Figure 51: Per Capita Income (1990 – 2008) $60,000

$50,000

Per Capita Income

$40,000

$30,000

$20,000

$10,000

California

Monterey County

SLO County

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

$0

Santa Barbara County

Source: BLS and AECOM

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Figure 52: Per Capita Incomes Relative to California (1990 – 2008)

Per Capita Income Level as a Percent of California Per Capita Income

115%

110%

105% Monterey County

100%

SLO County Santa Barbara County

95%

Linear (Monterey County) Linear (SLO County) Linear (Santa Barbara County)

90%

85%

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

80%

Source: BLS and AECOM

Average Household Income ($000s)

Figure 53: Mean Household Income by Region of US Migration to SLO County (2005 – 2008) $120

$99

$100 $71 $71

$80 $60

$49

$63 $48

$52

$61

$70 $54

$57 $57 $55

$40 $20 $0

Source: IRS and AECOM

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Commercial Real Estate Table 42: SLO County Retail Market Fundamentals (2007 – 2011)

Retail 2011 Q1 2010 2009 2008 2007

Total RBA 13,541,921 13,522,121 13,502,007 13,298,434 13,202,787

Total Vacant SF 476,812 452,053 439,660 375,332 259,226

Taxable Transactions Retail Stores Average Occupied SF (000s) Sales/SF 13,065,109 13,070,068 13,062,347 $ 2,495,350 $ 191 12,923,102 $ 2,827,545 $ 219 12,943,561 $ 3,054,859 $ 236

Source: Costar and AECOM

Table 43: SLO County Office Market Fundamentals (2007 – 2011)

Office 2011 Q1 2010 2009 2008 2007

Total RBA 5,577,926 5,571,376 5,515,276 5,427,468 5,378,547

Total Vacant SF 281,400 276,159 270,944 291,294 222,840

Estimated SF per Office Occupied Occupied SF Employees Space 5,296,526 5,295,217 5,244,332 14,200 369 5,136,174 15,300 336 5,155,707 15,800 326

Source: Costar and AECOM

Table 44: SLO County Industrial Market Fundamentals (2007 – 2011)

Industrial Total RBA 2011 Q1 7,331,202 2010 7,279,757 2009 7,277,157 2008 7,257,157 2007 7,064,037

Estimated SF per Industrial Occupied Total Vacant SF Occupied SF Employees Space 212,914 7,118,288 244,554 7,035,203 227,698 7,049,459 11,700 603 229,571 7,027,586 12,700 553 204,284 6,859,753 12,900 532

Source: Costar and AECOM

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Macro Economic Indicators 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0

2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

County Share of State Real GDP

Real GDP (million of chained 2001 $)

Figure 54: State GDP (Private Industries) (2001 – 2008)

California San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, CA (MSA) Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Goleta, CA (MSA)

Source: BEA and AECOM

$160.0 $140.0 $120.0 $100.0 $80.0 $60.0 $40.0 $20.0

State Exports (All Industries)

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

$0.0

1997

State Exports in Billions of Dollars

Figure 55: State Exports (1997 – 2009)

Linear (State Exports (All Industries))

Source: WiserTrade and AECOM

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900

$12.0

800 700

$10.0

600

$8.0

500

$6.0

400 300

$4.0

200

$2.0

Number of Deals

$14.0

100 0

Investment Amount

2010-1

2009-1

2008-1

2007-1

2006-1

2005-1

2004-1

2003-1

2002-1

2001-1

2000-1

1999-1

1998-1

1997-1

1996-1

$0.0 1995-1

Investment in Billions of Dollars

Figure 56: State Venture Capital Investment (Total) (1995 – 2010)

# of Deals

Note: All sectors in all stages of development. For specific definitions please see: https://www.pwcmoneytree.com/MTPublic/ns/nav.jsp?page=definitions Source: PWC Money Tree and AECOM

16

$300.0

12

$200.0

10 8

$150.0

6

$100.0

4

$50.0

Number of Deals

14

$250.0

2 0

$0.0

1995-1 1995-3 1996-1 1996-3 1997-1 1997-3 1998-1 1998-3 1999-1 1999-3 2000-1 2000-3 2001-1 2001-3 2002-1 2002-3 2003-1 2003-4 2004-2 2004-4 2005-3 2006-2 2006-4 2007-2 2007-4 2008-3 2009-1 2009-4 2010-2 2010-4

Investment in Millions of Dollars

Figure 57: State Venture Capital Investment (Health Care) (1995 – 2010)

Investment Amount

# of Deals

Note: All stages of development Source: PWC Money Tree and AECOM

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Available Forecasts24 Figure 58: California Population Projections (2010 – 2040) 60,000,000

54,266,115 49,240,891

50,000,000 40,000,000

44,135,923 39,135,676

30,000,000 20,000,000 10,000,000 0 2010

2020

2030

2040

Source: DOF (revised 8/10/2009)

24

Long-term forecasts released since our previous Study. It is important to note that a number of revised longrange forecasts are expected to be released after the 2010 Census data. AECOM

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Figure 59: SLO County Population Projection Comparison (2010 – 2035) 340,000

330,000

320,000

310,000

300,000

290,000

280,000

270,000 2010 DOF

DOF AECOM Low AECOM Mid AECOM High

2015

2020

AECOM Low

2010 274820 274820 274820 274820

2025 AECOM Mid

2015 284,026 284,844 284,844 284,844

2020 293,540 294,194 295,394 296,634

2030

2035

AECOM High

2025 304,858 303,064 305,484 307,864

2030 316,613 314,184 318,084 321,964

2035 327,499 325,414 330,824 336,174

Note: Population adjusted as of July 1, 2010 Source: DOF (revised 8/10/2009) and AECOM (05/27/2009)

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Figure 60: California Employment Projections (2018 – 2020) 60,000,000

54,266,115 49,240,891

50,000,000 40,000,000

44,135,923 39,135,676

30,000,000 20,000,000 10,000,000 0 2010

2020

2030

2040

Note: January 2011: 2008 – 2018 EDD projection (extrapolated to 2040 by AECOM) Source: EDD and AECOM

Figure 61: SLO County Employment Projection Comparison (2010) 110,000

108,300

108,000 106,000 104,000 102,000

100,600

100,000

98,300

98,000 96,000 94,000 92,000 EDD (Projected)

EDD (Actual)

AECOM (Low, Mid, High)

Source: EDD (01/2011) and AECOM (05/27/2009)

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Figure 62: SLO County Employment Projections (2010 – 2035) 133,000

128,000

123,000

118,000

113,000

108,000

103,000

98,000 2010

2015 EDD

2020

AECOM Low

2025 AECOM Mid

2030

2035

AECOM High

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

EDD

98,300

103,300

108,600

114,200

120,000

126,100

AECOM Low AECOM Mid AECOM High

98,300 98,300 98,300

103,300 103,800 104,300

108,600 109,700 110,800

114,100 115,800 117,600

119,900 122,300 124,800

126,100 129,200 132,500

Note: Chart compares employment growth rates based on actual employment (non-farm) based on AECOM and EDD projections. EDD project and AECOM low projection are comparable. Source: EDD (01/2011) and AECOM (05/27/2009)

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