Working paper
Research Unit Russia/CIS Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik German Institute for International and Security Affairs
Roland Götz
Russian Energy and Europe
FG 5 2005/10, December 2005
Working papers are papers in the subject area of a Research Unit which are not officially published by SWP. These papers are either preliminary studies that later become papers published by SWP or papers that are published elsewhere. Your comments are always welcome.
Europe Europe in this presentation means western and eastern Europe, without CIS countries
Erdöl-Gesamtpotential 2004 (BGR)
Russian oil and gas fields !
! !
Russian/Soviet oil and gas production in the 20th century moved from the Caspian area to the Wolga/Ural area and only after World War II to western Siberia Western Siberia remains the main production area In the 21th century important production areas will become offshore fields in the Barents sea, Eastern Siberaia and Sachalin
Oil production !
!
!
After dissolution of the Soviet Union Russian oil production fell sharply because of privatisation problems and lacking internal and CIS demand Oil export to western countries soon began to increase Long-term production depends heavily on world market conditions and investment climate in Russia
mb/d
Oil production prognoses for Russia
13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Rußland Re fe re nz fall Rußland Hohe r Ö lpre is RF Ene rgie strate gie (2003) - Günstige s Sz e nario Russ. Akade m. D. W iss. (2004) Wood Macke nz ie (2004) Base case Wood Macke nz ie (2004) Unconstraine d case ASPO (2005) - Nur re gular oil
2030
Russia and Caspian oil export !
! !
!
Russian oil production has almost reached its peak production level Russian oil export will increase slightly Caspian oil production is expected to grow considerably Caspian oil export will increase more than Russian oil export
Russian oil export 1988 - 2005
mmt 250
200
Export to Non-CIS 150
100
Export to CIS 50
0 1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Erdölexport aus Russland und dem Kaspischen Raum mbd 14 12 10 Kaspischer Raum 8 6 Rußland 4 2 0
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Kaspischer Raum
0,6
1,5
2,7
3,4
4,2
Russland
6,8
7,3
7,7
7,8
7,9
Import need of USA, China, Europe !
!
Strong increase of oil import need of USA and China Small increase of oil import need of Europe
European oil import in the reference case Reference case: low oil price, small Non-OPEC oil production European oil import mainly from Gulf-OPEC and Other OPEC Russian and Caspian (FSU) oil export to Europe is assumed to be constant
mbd
18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
West European oil import (EIA reference case) Other NonOPEC FSU Other OPEC Persian Gulf
2002
2025
Oil pipelines !
!
!
!
Oil pipelines from western Russia to Europe mainly built in Soviet times Capacity increase of the Baltic Pipeline System (BPS) Planned export pipelines to Murmansk / Barents sea for export to USA and Europe Bottlenecks Baltic sea, Black sea ports, Bosporus
Oil pipelines to Europe
Oil pipelines East Siberia
Gas
Gas potential 2004 (BGR)
Russian gas production prospects ! !
!
!
Old West Siberian giant fields in decline Many new and relatively small fields can be developed Giant fields in remote areas (Barents sea/Shtokman, Yamal) will need big investment Shtokman field will produce LNG for US and China markets
European gas import forecast !
!
!
!
European import need 2000-20 is growing by 200250 bcm Russian gas export to Europe will grow by about 70 bcm Russian import share will fall from 70 percent to 50 percent Gas import from Africa, Near East and the Caspian Region will increase
Main gas fields ! !
Big west siberian gas fields in decline Addition of small new fields will not reverse decline
Gas production on Gazprom’s mature gas fields is rapidly declining 600 Other Orenburg Astrakhan Urengoy (achimov) Yeti-Purovskoye South Russkoye Vyngayakhinskoye Pestsovoye Yubilyeynoe West Tarkosalinskoye Komsomolskoye Zapolyarnoye Medvezhe Aneryakhinskoye Kharvutinskoye Yamburg Yen-Yakhinskoye Urengoy
500
bcmpa
400
300 200
100
0 2004
2010
2015
2020
Source: Jonathan Stern, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, ‘The future of Russian gas and Gazprom’, 2005
40 35
West Siberian gas fields (tcf p.a.)
30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
bcm
Gas export potential to Europe
600 Caspian
500
200
Other Africa Near East Algeria
100
Russia
400 300
0 2002
2010
2020
Gas pipelines !
!
!
Main gas export pipelines crossing Ukraine and Belarus (Yamal Europe pipeline) New gas export pipelines to the West: North European Gas Pipeline (NEGP) Ukraine-Russia-Germany Gas transport consortium should be revitalized
Russian gas pipelines
Turkey as gas transportation corridor ! !
! !
Existing: Blue stream pipeline Russia-Turkey Planned: Nabucco pipeline TurkmenistanAzerbaijan-Turkey-Europe Planned: Iran-Turkey pipeline Existing, but not operating: Iraq-Turkey pipeline
North European gas pipeline ! !
!
Connecting Europe to west Siberian gas fields Schtokman gas field will produce liquid natural gas (LNG) NEGP will delay second branch of YamalEurope pipeline
The gas: new European projects of Gazprom Shtokman gas field • 3200 bcm gas reserves (all Russian ABC1 grade) • On-stream introduction in 2012 • Peak production 21 bcm/year (first stage)
Ust Luga (Primorsk?) LNG plant/terminal • 5mmt annual capacity • Commencement in 2009-2010 • Gas source unknown
Baltic gas pipeline • 27 bcm annual capacity at first stage, 55 bcm total • Commencement in 2010 • Gas source - primarily YuzhnoRusskoye gas field
Yamal-Europe • Next stages given up?
Map: http://www.balticgas.org
The Baltic gas pipeline: will Russia be able to bypass Ukraine? The structure of Russian gas export corridors Today Blue Stream
After the Baltic pipeline is fully commenced (55 bcmpa, 2012?) Blue Stream
Belarus
Baltic pipeline
Belarus
Ukraine
Ukraine
Ukraine will still serve as the dominant Russia’s export transit corridor for Central, Eastern and Southern European markets, no matter what Source: Gazprom
Mediterrean countries as gas suppliers !
!
Gas production in mediterrean countries will increase Third alternative to Russia and Caspian gas
Transportation Cost (Institute of Gas Technology)
$/MMBtu
LNG 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 0
On-shore pipeline
700
0
620
Of f -shore pipeline
2200
1240
1860
2480
3100
3720
4340
4960
LNG transportation cost does not affect on LNG train cost if the distance of transportation is changed http://www.sovcomflot.ru
ОАО SOVCOMFLOT
Delivering Russian Gas http://www.sovcomflot.ru
