RFID Forecasts, Trends by Territory and Lessons Raghu Das:
[email protected]
IDTechEx:
www.idtechex.com
Copyright © 1999-2009 IDTechEx
Global Research & Analysis on Printed Electronics, Photovoltaics, Energy Harvesting and RFID
Overview of our services Consultancy: Over 250 consultancy projects, most under NDA. A few companies we can mention include: Hewlett Packard, Shell ICI, Rexam, Whirlpool Europe, Guinness UDV, Thin Film Electronics. PolyTechnos, Cazenove investment, Schiphol Airport.
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Web Portals: Printed Electronics World & Energy Harvesting Journal World’s largest RFID case study knowledgebase. World’s Largest Printed Electronics Suppliers database Consulting – Publications – Conferences Copyright © 1999-2009 IDTechEx
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Cumulative sales in millions of tags 1943 to start of 2010
DIGITALLY-ENCODED LOW COST RFID TAGS ABOVE 0.1cm RANGE
Active and passive tags Worldwide sales cumulative numbers Chip
9736 million – 20% in 2009
Chipless
171 million
CHIP TYPE IS 99% OF MARKET VALUE Active/RTLS: All chip – 722 million tags
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Cumulative sales in millions of tags 1943 - start of 2010 Application
Cumulative number of tags (millions)
Retail/ consumer goods
1490 – pallets/cases, apparel, items
Land and sea logistics/ postal
145
Airlines and airports
215 – baggage, conveyances
Healthcare and drugs
161 – AstraZeneca, Pfizer, Purdue, GSK etc
Animals & farming
485
Books, libraries, archiving
522 – Libraries, Selexyz
Manufacturing
356 – process control
Leisure
210 – Hasbro toys, events
Laundry
84
Financial, security, safety
2445 – ID, passports
Military inc pallet/ case
173
Passenger transport/ automotive
2715 – clickers, cards
Other
907
Total Consulting – Publications – Conferences Copyright © 1999-2009 IDTechEx
9908 (incl. Chipless)
RFID chip sales cumulative NXP 3920 EM Micro 2200 Texas Insts 1150 Impinj 1000 Sony 650 Other 876 Total 9736
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Sales growth: tags 2009 to 2010 Number m
Value $m
2009
2010
2009
2010
Drugs and Other Healthcare
32
33
29
25
Retail apparel
200
300
24
36
Consumer goods
10
12
1
1
Postal
10
12
10
12
Books
90
100
20
14
Manufacturing parts, tools
90
140
35
39
Pallet/case
50
50
4
4
Smart cards/payment key fobs
440
450
1061
1139
Smart tickets
350
380
42
42
Air baggage
65
70
12
13
Conveyances/Rollcages/ULD/Totes
39
76
35
47
Animals
105
178
103
173
Passport page/secure documents
65
65
244
241
Other tag applications
433
441
413
340
Total (billion)
1.98
2.31
2.03
2.13
Consulting – Publications – Conferences Copyright © 1999-2009 IDTechEx
Source: IDTechEx RFID Forecasts, Players & Opportunities 20112021 www.IDTechEx.com/for ecasts
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Total market size •
2010 - $5.63 Billion – Cards $2.36bn; Labels/tickets/fobs $3.06bn – Passive $5.02bn; Active $0.61bn
Number of case studies
1,500
1375
USA still has the largest number of RFID projects, China moves from 7th to 3rd in one year.
1,000
500
397 303
224
190
170
118
101
93
87
Consulting – Publications – Conferences Copyright © 1999-2009 IDTechEx
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Source: IDTechEx RFID Forecasts, Players & Opportunities 2011-2021 www.IDTechEx.com/forecasts
© IDTechEx Ltd
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Largest potential for RFID is retail/ consumer goods Attitude
Perceptive
MIT concept of very basic 19992004 low cost tags on everything
Stupid Wild enthusiasm that tens of billions of pallets/ cases could have 10 cent tags and trillions of items a year in supermarkets could have one cent tags using current technology
2000
Consulting – Publications – Conferences Copyright © 1999-2009 IDTechEx
Procter & Gamble says it cannot get a payback on pallet/case tagging unless tag is under 2.5 cents. Other CPG suppliers say one cent Realisation that silicon chip technology will never get there
Depressed
Marks & Spencer gets payback with 15 cent tags American Apparel has reusable tags Many niche applications at 10 cents to $1
2008 © IDTechEx Ltd
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Passive RFID – growth areas • Item level RFID (UHF) – closed loop – Marks & Spencer apparel, American Apparel … report 5 to 25% sales uplift!
• Asset Tracking (UHF) – closed loop • National ID (HF) - government – Including passports
• Transit Tickets (HF) - government – transit ticketing etc.
• Animals (LF) - government
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RFID Cellphones • Already huge in East Asia thanks to RFID cards used for transport and payment – now migrated to RFID enabled cellphones • ISO 14443 A; ISO 14443 B; Sony “type C” – NFC is backwardly compatible with all three
• In 2008 NTT DoCoMo sold 47 Million RFID enabled cellphones, leveraging RFID infrastructure for transport and 120,000+ POS RFID readers in Tokyo stores. • West is laggard but will catch up as RFID infrastructure goes in for POS and transport, e.g. London Transport has installed a $1.6 Billion RFID system. Nokia says soon most of its phones will have NFC as standard Consulting – Publications – Conferences Copyright © 1999-2009 IDTechEx
A ubiquitous RFID reader network… at HF © IDTechEx Ltd
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Examples of ultra low cost sensor tags - GE The RFID sensor is placed on the outside of the milk carton and allows for non invasive detection - it can detect the spoilage through the carton wall
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Dropping price to 2 cents by getting rid of the chip Kovio ink jet printed, nanosilicon RFID in the lead Samples are now available
ISO14443 1000 transistors *
HF first because it is over half of the RFID market value
Three Generations of Active RFID Generation 1 = Conventional active RFID $450 Million in 2010 433MHz, 2.45GHz etc. ISO standards exist E.g. car clicker $2bn so far, non-stop road toll $0.5 billion order recently, military supplies $0.5 billion order recently Generation 2 = Real Time Locating Systems $160 Million in 2010 433MHz, 2.45GHz, UHF, WiFi, UWB, Ultrasound… No orders above a few million dollars as yet. Acquisition frenzy and many newcomers Generation 3 = Mesh and Wireless Sensor Networks Tags are readers. Form adhoc networks. Monitor condition.
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12
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Wireless Sensor Networks Backhaul of information to and from computer system Tag Tag
Tag
Tag
Tag Tag Tag
Tag
Tag
Tag
Tag
Tag
Tag Tag
Tag
Tag
Tag
Tag
But most of these gas guzzlers need energy harvesting Consulting – Publications – Conferences Copyright © 1999-2009 IDTechEx
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Largest orders are placed by Government • China National ID Card $6 billion HF • ACS for New York/ New Jersey EZ Pass $500 million UHF Active (In 2006, New Jersey Turnpike Authority spent $28 million to replace 1.1 million old E-Z pass toll tags before their batteries ran out). • Savi Technology for US Army $285 million 433 MHz active • E-passport infrastructure UK and USA $30-$65 million HF • Applied Digital river readers for US Army/ Bvl Hydro $45 m LF • Gaming Partners casino chips Macao Philippines $8 million HF And Government is behind other big business by creating laws eg tag dogs in NZ, cows in Australia, passports in 70 countries
Consulting – Publications – Conferences Copyright © 1999-2009 IDTechEx
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RFID is $5.6 billion in 2010 but fragmented Over 1000 suppliers: top ten have half the business Largest include these (double counting in the sales) Gemplus –RFID cards & passports $500 million+ NXP – chips $500 million ACS – Non stop road tolling and transport card system integrators $500 million Assa Abloy – secure access, livestock $400 million Savi – military & heavy logistics systems integration $200 million Smartrac - Passport inlays $150 million Allflex – livestock tags $110 million Consulting – Publications – Conferences
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Pure play independent RFID companies $50 + million Allflex Australia Savi US Zebra US ERG Australia ASK France
$20-$50 million Over 100 people
BUT WATCH THE TIDDLERS!
AeroScout US/ Israel Alien Technology US SIRIT US Impinj US Ubisense UK Under $20 million About 500 companies Consulting – Publications – Conferences Copyright © 1999-2009 IDTechEx
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RFID spend by territory (excluding cards) 25 ROW Europe
20
East Asia
US$ Billions
North America
15
10
5
0 2011
Consulting – Publications – Conferences Copyright © 1999-2009 IDTechEx
2016
2021
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The rise of RFID in Asia China will become the biggest market for RFID. Indicators of this are as follows: •In the last two years most new RFID manufacture capacity has been installed in China and Korea •The Chinese Government is a strong advocate for RFID, and has the power to mandate companies to use it. •China has already executed the largest RFID order by value (over one billion national identification cards for adults – six billion dollars including systems) and has a policy of making its own requirements throughout the RFID value chain as soon as possible. •Most products will be source tagged, and because China is one of the largest exporters the tags will be supplied there
Consulting – Publications – Conferences Copyright © 1999-2009 IDTechEx
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Markets by Frequency for 2011 70%
60%
LF
HF
HF or NF UHF
433MHz
UHF
2.45GHz
Other
Total
Number (Bn)
0.27
1.34
0
0.052
1.18
0.03
0.01
2.88
%
9.4%
46.5%
0.0%
1.8%
40.9%
1.0%
0.3%
100.0%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0% LF
HF
Consulting – Publications – Conferences Copyright © 1999-2009 IDTechEx
HF or NF UHF
433MHz
UHF
2.45GHz
Other © IDTechEx Ltd
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Large orders – from all types of industries RFID Company
Value $M
Sector
Type
Country
Affiliated Computer Services
500
New York road tolling
Active
USA UHF active
Lockheed Martin
425
Military
Active tags/ systems. US Army
USA
ERG
48
Mass Transit
Cards/ systems
Italy, Philippines HF
Digital Angel
27
Fish
10 meter wide readers in rivers to detect salmon. Bonneville Power & US Army Corps of Engineers
USA
LF
Odin Technology
15
Military
System integration
USA
UHF
UPM Raflatac
1 leading to 15
Mass Transit
Tickets
Russia HF
Affiliated Computer Services
14
Mass Transit
Card system Marseilles
France HF
Cubic Transportation.
12
Mass transit
Card system extension – Washington
USA
HF
Avery Dennison
10
Retail
Passive tags Marks & Spencer
UK
UHF
Consulting – Publications – Conferences Copyright © 1999-2009 IDTechEx
433MHz active
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Impediments to RFID rollout Irrational fear Paranoid privacy advocates – including the European Community Sloppy users Retailers not always rational and their staff often technophobic No decisions on standards/ mandates Healthcare standards and mandates needed eg on drugs Haggling delays NFC phones Passive tag cost Delay with printed passive tags Active tag life Battery life with active tags – but energy harvesting not yet ready for wide use
Consulting – Publications – Conferences
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Value of tags by sector 12000
Other Retail, Consumer Goods Passenger Transport, Automotive
10000
Military Manufacturing
US$ million
Land and Sea Logistics, Postal
8000
Healthcare and Pharmaceutical Financial, Security, Safety Books, Libraries, Archiving
6000
Animals and Farming Airline and Airports
4000
2000
0 2010
2011
Consulting – Publications – Conferences Copyright © 1999-2009 IDTechEx
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020 © IDTechEx Ltd
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Chipless RFID for highest volume – when? 300
710 billion tags by 2019; $27.59 Billion market
250 Number billion
Chipless/Printed RFID
Chip
200
150
100
50
0 2010
2011
2012
Consulting – Publications – Conferences Copyright © 1999-2009 IDTechEx
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021 © IDTechEx Ltd
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RFID is a fast growing business 30
Networking, Software, Services Interrogators (incl.cellphones) Tags - active/BAP
25
Tags - passive
US$ billion
20
15
10
5
0 2010
2011
2012
Consulting – Publications – Conferences Copyright © 1999-2009 IDTechEx
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021 © IDTechEx Ltd
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For more read: RFID Forecasts, Players & Opportunities 2011-2021 Active RFID & Sensors 2010-2020 Wireless Sensor Networks 2010-2020
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