RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY PRICE SURVEY

QUARTER I-2005 ?? Residential property price increased ?? In the next quarter, the slowdown increasing price was estimated to

continue

Residential Property Price Development Price increased

The result of Residential Property Price Survey (RPPS) in Quarter I-2005, which was showed new house price development at 14 big cities including Jabotabek area, indicated an increase on index and it reached at 124.97. Quarterly, there was an increased by 1.80% (q-t-q), which was higher than previous quarter (0.78%). Based on the type of building, the highest increase occurred in medium type of building (2.36%), followed by small type of building (1.81%) and large type of building (1.24%). Based on the areas, the highest increase occurred in Manado (6.26%) mainly happened on medium type of building. Meanwhile, the lowest increase was in Medan (0,08%) and Palembang was the area that didn’t experience changes in price. In addition, the price increase by 2.87% in Jabotabek area, caused by the growth in large type of building by 4.31%. Graph 1 Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) and Changes (composit of 14 cities in Indonesia) (Index)

(%)

140

5,0

135 130

4,5 4,0

125

3,5

120

3,0

115 110

2,5 2,0

105 100

1,5 1,0

95

0,5

90

0,0 Tw I

Tw II

Tw III T w I V

Tw I

Tw II

2002

Tw III

2003

RPPI

Tw IV

Tw I

Tw II

Tw III Tw IV

2004

Tw I

Tw II*

2005

% Changes

Methodology Residential Price Property Survey is the quarterly survey which collected from 1999 based on dev elopment project from 12 cities, i.e. Medan Padang, Palembang, Bandar Lampung, Bandung, Semarang, Yogyakarta, Surabaya, Denpasar, Banjarmasin, Manado, and Makassar. At the first quarter 2003, coverage area of survey become 13 cities including Jabotabek (Jakarta, Bogor, Tanggerang and Bekasi) area. And at the first quarter 2004, coverage became 14 cities including Pontianak. Data collected directly from developer covered price and total sales in the recent quarter and prediction for the next quarter. Data processed by average method of price by each type ( lower, lower middle, middle, upper middle and upper) and by type of building (small, medium, large). Composite Index is developed by simple average chain Index).

Real Sector and Government Finance Statistics Division

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Residential Property Survey The increasing price of next quarter will be lower

The developer expected the price of residential property would increase on index at 126.03 in quarter I-2005. Quarterly, there was an increased at 0.85%, lower than previous quarter (0.85%). The increase mainly caused by increase of small type of building price by 1.08%, while for large type and medium type of building the price increased by 0.73% and 0.71% respectively. In quarterly basis, the city which was predicted to be the highest in price increasing is Medan (2.25%). Meanwhile, the area that didn’t experience an increase is Palembang. In addition, Jabotabek area was predicted increase only by 0.04%. Graph 2 RPPI in Small Type housing (Indeks)

(%)

140 135 130 125

6,0 5,0 4,0

120 115 110 105 100

3,0 2,0 1,0

95 90

0,0 Tw I

Tw II

Tw III T w I V

Tw I

Tw II

2002

Tw III T w I V

Tw I

Tw II

2003

Tw III T w I V

Tw I

2004

RPPI of Small Type

Tw II*

2005

% Changes

Graph 3 RPPI in Medium Type Housing (Indeks)

(%)

140

7,0

120

6,0

100

5,0

80

4,0

60

3,0

40

2,0

20

1,0

0

0,0 Tw I

Tw II

Tw III

2002

Tw IV

Tw I

Tw II

Tw III T w I V

2003

RPPI of Medium Type

Real Sector and Government Finance Statistics Division

Tw I

Tw II

Tw III Tw IV

2004

Tw I

Tw II*

2005

% Changes

2

Residential Property Survey

Graph 4 RPPI in Large Type Housing (Indeks)

(%)

125

3,5

120

3,0

115

2,5

110

2,0

105

1,5

100

1,0

95

0,5

90

0,0 Tw I

Tw II

Tw III

Tw IV

Tw I

Tw II

2002

Tw III T w I V

Tw I

2003

Tw III

Tw IV

Tw I

2004

RPPI of Large Type

Housing cost in quarter I2005 showed an increase (inflation )

Tw II

Tw II*

2005

% Changes

From the observation result of housing cost of price index on CPI-BPS in quarter I-2005 (March 2005) indicated similar tendency with the increase of residential property price on index at 126.65. Quarterly, the housing cost increased by 2.37% (q-tq), higher than that in the previous quarter (1.61%). Meanwhile, in March 2005 sub group of goods/services for housing cost type experienced inflation 0.72% (m-t-m). Graph 5 Changes in RPPI and CPI Housing % (q-t5,00 4,50 4,00 3,50 3,00 2,50 2,00 1,50 1,00 0,50 0,00 Tw II

Tw III Tw IV

Tw I

Tw II

2002 RPPI Changes

Annually RPPI experience a increasing

Tw III Tw IV

2003

Tw I

Tw II Tw III Tw IV

2004 Changes in CPI Housing

Tw I

Tw II*

2005

Annually (y-o-y), Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) in quarter I-2005 increased by 5.45%, higher than that in the previous quarter (4.61%). The speed up tendency of annual growth occurred in all type of building which was the growth of medium type of building was 6.10%, followed by small type of building 5.28% and medium type of building 4.96%. The highest annual growth occurred in Surabaya (9.90%) and the lowest occurred in Denpasar (0.68%). Meanwhile, Jabotabek area only grew annually at 5.23%.

Real Sector and Government Finance Statistics Division

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Residential Property Survey

the price increase in quarter II-2005 was projected to be slowdown

In quarter II-2005, the annual growth of RPPI was estimated to be lower (by 4.73%) than previous quarter (5.45%). The slowdown tendency of annual growth occurred in all type of building which the growth of the price of medium, small and large type of building was 5.32%, 5.11% and 3.76% respectivelly. Based on areas, the highest increase of annual growth occurred in Surabaya (9.56%) and the lowest was in Bandar Lampung (1.38%). Jabotabek area was predicted to grow annually at 3.96%.

Real Sector and Government Finance Statistics Division

4

Table 1 RPPI Changes in quarter I-2005

NO

CITY Small

1

Quarterly Changes

Anually Changes

Housing Type

Housing Type

Medium

Large

All

Small

Medium

Large

All

BANDUNG

1,05

0,23

1,59

0,96

4,44

5,37

7,91

5,90

0,04

0,89

0,55

0,49

0,46

7,43

12,90

6,93

2

BANDAR LAMPUNG

3

BANJARMASIN

2,55

4,39

2,21

3,05

8,39

4,55

3,74

5,57

4

DENPASAR

1,94

0,52

-0,75

0,57

-0,08

2,36

-0,27

0,68

5

PALEMBANG

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

7,28

9,40

1,25

5,95

6

SEMARANG

3,30

2,33

1,85

2,49

11,04

10,04

3,97

8,32

1,02

0,38

1,10

0,83

5,55

3,37

12,59

7,14

7

YOGYAKARTA

8

PADANG

9

MEDAN

-0,60

0,00

2,56

0,65

2,76

0,00

2,56

1,78

0,28

-0,18

0,15

0,08

1,57

-0,16

1,06

0,83

10

MAKASSAR

5,82

4,38

0,00

3,40

14,90

8,82

-1,00

7,44

11

MANADO

2,52

10,00

-

6,26

2,52

17,33

-

9,80

2,33

4,61

4,65

3,86

5,53

9,30

14,92

9,90

12

SURABAYA

13

PONTIANAK

0,75

3,42

0,00

1,39

1,97

4,46

1,00

2,48

14

JABOTABEK

4,31

2,08

2,23

2,87

8,12

3,36

4,22

5,23

All Cities

1,81

2,36

1,24

1,80

5,28

6,10

4,96

5,45

Table 2 Expectation of RPPI Changes in Quarter II-2005

NO

CITY Small

Quarterly Changes

Anually Changes

Housing Type

Housing Type

Medium

Large

All

Small

Medium

Large

All

1

BANDUNG

0,01

1,19

0,49

0,56

3,70

5,89

8,23

5,93

2

BANDAR LAMPUNG

0,00

0,00

0,30

0,10

0,46

2,84

0,86

1,38

3

BANJARMASIN

1,90

0,68

0,08

0,89

7,28

6,90

3,82

6,00

4

DENPASAR

3,11

0,23

2,06

1,80

2,89

2,10

1,29

2,12

5

PALEMBANG

0,00

0,00

0,00

0,00

7,28

9,40

1,25

5,95

6

SEMARANG

1,07

0,55

0,00

0,54

8,55

6,57

2,55

5,87

7

YOGYAKARTA

0,47

1,15

0,62

0,74

4,23

2,97

6,20

4,47

8

PADANG

1,27

2,87

2,37

2,17

2,64

2,87

4,99

3,51

9

MEDAN

4,56

2,12

0,06

2,25

4,88

1,96

1,30

2,72

10

MAKASSAR

0,00

0,33

0,00

0,11

14,15

8,56

-1,00

7,12

11

MANADO

0,00

-1,52

-

-0,76

2,52

8,33

-

5,45

12

SURABAYA

2,37

2,38

1,22

1,99

4,75

9,30

14,73

9,56

13

PONTIANAK

0,38

0,00

2,25

0,88

2,36

3,42

2,25

2,69

14

JABOTABEK

0,00

0,03

0,08

0,04

5,92

3,05

2,93

3,96

All Cities

1,08

0,71

0,73

0,84

5,11

5,32

3,76

4,74

Real Sector and Government Finance Statistics Division

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