RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY PRICE SURVEY

TRIWULAN III-2004

?? Residential property price has a slowdown increased. ?? The slowdown increasing price was estimated to continue in the next

quarter.

Residential Property Price Development Price Indication still increase but tends to slowdown

The result of Residential Property Price Survey (RPPS) in Quarter III2004, which was showed new house price development at 14 big cities including Jabotabek area, indicated an increase on index at 121.81. Quarterly, there was an increased at 1.23%, a little lower than previous quarter (1.53%). Based on the type of building, the highest increase occurred in medium type of building (1.33%), followed by large type of building (1.20%) and small type of building (1.16%). Based on the areas, the highest increase occurred in Palembang (3.70%) mainly happened on medium type of building. On the other side, Manado and Pontianak is the area that didn’t experience changes in price. Meanwhile, the price increase 1.13% in Jabotabek area. Graph 1 Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) and Changes (composit of 14 cities in Indonesia) (%)

(Index) 140 135 130 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90

5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Tw I

Tw II

Tw III

Tw IV

Tw I

2002

Tw II

Tw III Tw IV

Tw I

Tw II

2003

RPPI

Tw III Tw IV*

2004

% Changes

Methodology Residential Price Property Survey is the quarterly survey which collected from 1999 based on development project from 12 cities, i.e. Medan Padang, Palembang, Bandar Lampung, Bandung, Semarang, Yogyakarta, Surabaya, Denpasar, Banjarmasin, Manado, and Makassar. At the first quarter 2003, coverage area of survey become 13 cities including Jabotabek (Jakarta, Bogor, Tanggerang and Bekasi) area. And at the first quarter 2004, coverage became 14 cities including Pontianak. Data collected directly from developer covered price and total sales in the recent quarter and prediction for the next quarter. Data processed by average method of price by each type ( lower, lower middle, middle, upper middle and upper) and by type of building (small, medium, large). Composite Index is developed by simple average chain Index).

Division of Real Sector and Government Finance Statistics

1

Residential Property Survey

The Increasing price of next quarter wil be lower

The developer expected the price of residential property would increase on index at 123.14 in quarter IV-2004. Quarterly, there was an increased at 1.09%, lower than previous quarter (1.23%). The increase mainly caused by increase of medium type of building price at 1.57%. The city, which the price was predicted to increase highest is Bandung (3.95%). On the other side, the area that didn’t experience an increase is Bandar Lampung, Semarang, Medan, and Manado. Meanwhile, Jabotabek area was predicted increase only 0.31%. Graph 2 RPPI in Small Type housing (Index)

(%)

140 135 130 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90

6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Tw I

Tw II

Tw III

Tw IV

Tw I

2002

Tw II

Tw III Tw IV

Tw I

2003

Tw II

Tw III Tw IV*

2004

RPPI of Small Type

% Changes

Graph 3 RPPI in Medium Type Housing (Index)

(%)

140

7.0

120

6.0

100

5.0

80

4.0

60

3.0

40

2.0

20

1.0

0

0.0 Tw I

Tw II

Tw III

2002

Tw IV

Tw I

Tw II

Tw III

2003

RPPI of Medium Type

Division of Real Sector and Government Finance Statistics

Tw IV

Tw I

Tw II

Tw III Tw IV*

2004

% Changes

2

Residential Property Survey Graph 4 RPPI in Large Type Housing (Index)

(%)

125

3.5

120

3.0

115

2.5

110

2.0

105

1.5

100

1.0

95

0.5

90

0.0 Tw I

Tw II

Tw III

Tw IV

Tw I

2002

Tw II

Tw III

Tw I

2003

RPPI of Large Type

Housing cost in quarter III-2004 showed an increase (inflation ) but lower

Tw IV

Tw II

Tw III Tw IV*

2004

% Changes

From the observation result of housing cost of price index on CPI -BPS in quarter III-2004 (September 2004) indicated similar tendency with the increase of residential property price on index at 121.76. Quarterly, the housing cost showed the increase of 2.37%. That condition was relatively lower than previous quarter condition 2.99%. Meanwhile, in quarter IV-2004 (October 2004) sub group of goods/services for housing cost type experienced inflation 0.39%. Graph 5 Changes in RPPI and CPI Housing

(%) 5.00 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 Tw II

Tw III

Tw IV

Tw I

2002

Tw III

2003 RPPI Changes

Annually RPPI experience a slowdown increasing

Tw II

Tw IV

Tw I

Tw II

Tw III

Tw IV*

2004 Changes in CPI Housing

Annually (y-o-y), Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) in quarter III2004 was noted increased 5.12%, lower than previous quarter (6.20%). The slowdown tendency of annual growth mainly occurred in medium type of building 4.53%, followed by small type of building 4.95%. The highest annual growth occurred in Palembang (9.14%) and the lowest occurred in Padang (1.29%). Meanwhile, Jabotabek area only grew annually at 3.40%.

Division of Real Sector and Government Finance Statistics

3

Residential Property Survey

…. and the increase in the next quarter projected to be slowdown

In quarter IV-2004, the annual growth of RPPI was estimated lower than previous quarter 4.94% (In quarter III 2004 at 5.12%). The slowdown tendency of annual growth occurred in large type of building 4.62%, followed by small type of building, 4.88%. Based on areas, the highest increase of annual growth occurred in Bandung (7.84%), followed by Yogyakarta (7.77%). Meanwhile, Jabotabek area was predicted to grow annually at 3.42%.

Division of Real Sector and Government Finance Statistics

4

Residential Property Survey

Table 1 RPPI Changes in quarter II-2004 Quarterly Changes NO

Anually Changes

Housing Type

CITY Small

Medium

Housing Type

Large

All

Small

Medium

Large

All

1

BANDUNG

0.72

0.69

0.19

0.53

8.58

6.29

0.19

4.99

2

BANDAR LAMPUNG

0.00

4.46

12.28

5.58

5.49

7.63

12.28

8.57

3

BANJARMASIN

2.96

-1.53

0.00

0.48

1.88

-0.08

0.92

0.95

4

DENPASAR

0.13

0.48

0.48

0.36

9.52

5.37

7.19

7.38

5

PALEMBANG

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

15.07

7.10

11.25

11.25

6

SEMARANG

3.39

3.83

1.39

2.87

5.75

6.86

5.29

5.98

7

YOGYAKARTA

1.74

1.54

6.67

3.32

7.90

4.24

10.92

7.69

8

PADANG

1.39

0.00

0.00

0.46

1.96

1.91

0.00

1.29

9

MEDAN

1.25

0.00

-0.17

0.36

5.74

5.32

4.61

5.24

10

MAKASSAR

0.65

0.57

0.00

0.41

9.36

7.40

3.38

6.74

11

MANADO

0.00

6.67

-

3.33

12.91

4.69

-

8.96

12

SURABAYA

3.13

2.39

1.39

2.30

9.07

17.73

6.12

11.01

13

PONTIANAK

0.00

1.00

1.00

0.67

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

14

JABOTABEK

2.08

0.33

1.35

1.25

4.13

1.30

2.45

2.62

All Cities

1.25

1.46

1.89

1.53

7.44

5.82

5.33

6.20

Table 2 Expectation of RPPI Changes in Quarter III-2004

NO

CITY Small

Quarterly Changes

Anually Changes

Housing Type

Housing Type

Medium

Large

All

Small

Medium

Large

All

1

BANDUNG

1.29

1.98

0.74

1.34

7.70

6.67

0.94

5.08

2

BANDAR LAMPUNG

0.36

0.00

0.00

0.12

2.67

5.38

12.28

6.83

3

BANJARMASIN

1.43

1.35

0.73

1.17

3.04

-1.93

1.66

0.93

4

DENPASAR

1.38

0.25

0.00

0.54

10.42

3.30

7.19

6.96

5

PALEMBANG

0.41

1.44

0.00

0.62

3.99

6.35

7.14

5.90

6

SEMARANG

0.91

0.94

5.88

2.58

6.61

7.48

11.47

8.54

7

YOGYAKARTA

0.32

0.94

1.31

0.86

7.09

4.07

11.83

7.66

8

PADANG

0.12

0.00

0.00

0.04

2.03

1.69

0.00

1.24

9

MEDAN

0.63

1.89

1.13

1.22

1.88

4.62

3.33

3.28

10

MAKASSAR

3.16

1.80

0.00

1.65

7.64

5.10

3.38

5.40

11

MANADO

11.00

0.00

-

5.50

11.75

4.69

-

8.37

12

SURABAYA

0.30

1.05

0.14

0.50

3.43

4.55

5.11

4.38

13

PONTIANAK

0.00

0.63

0.93

0.52

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

14

JABOTABEK

0.00

0.58

0.93

0.50

3.46

1.83

2.96

2.75

All Cities

1.52

0.92

0.91

1.12

5.33

4.10

5.56

5.00

Division of Real Sector and Government Finance Statistics

5

Division of Real Sector and Government Finance Statistics

6