THAI 2015 International Conference on “Climate Change and Water & Environment Management in Monsoon Asia” 27-30 January 2015, 2nd Floor, Swissotel Le Concorde, Bangkok
Research Issues on Water Disaster Management and Climate Change in West Java Island, Indonesia
Prof. Dr. Ir. Muhammad Syahril Badri Kusuma Research Division on Water Resources Engineering INSTITUT TEKNOLOGI BANDUNG 2015
Topics of Discussion 1.
2.
3.
Water Disaster Management and Climate Change in West Java, Indonesia Research Activities and Contribution Conclusion
Water Disaster Management and Climate Change in West Java, Indonesia 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
Climatology
Geophysical
Hydrological
Meteorological
Strategic Issue how to contribute : Disaster
Natural
Flood
V
Man Made V
Main Disaster V
Collateral Disaster V
Fire
V
V
V
V
Drought
V
V
V
V
Earthquake
V
V
V
Tsunami
V
V
Limited Resources for too many disasters cases Optimized effort tend to Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Selected Research on the most priority for supporting DRR program
Water Disaster Management and Climate Change in West Java, Indonesia Risk Concept: (Harkunti PR, 2008)
The Risk Triangle:
RISK
Exposure
The probability that a community’s structure or geographic area is to be damaged or disrupted by the impact of a particular hazard, on account of their nature, construction, and proximity to a hazardous area
If size of any one of the components increases, the level of risk also increases. Growing Risk should be reduced through a comprehensive approach with a strategy to manage all three components.
Water Disaster Management and Climate Change in West Java, Indonesia Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction at Local level, (Harkunti PR, 2008)
Community
Safety
Do not
Decrease
Prepare
increase the risk
existing risk
for possible consequences
What can you propose?
Long term DRR can be achieved through emergency response planning, Practices to promote mitigation & Preparedness, creating safer shelter, infrastructure and lifeline facilities in order to make the development actions are sustainable
Water Disaster Management and Climate Change in West Java, Indonesia Optimized DRR Program : Most Frequent/Probable event eg Flood Highest Risk Local, National and Regional Impact Most applicable of Sustainable Solution Common Practice of the most adapted to the local people Immediate Impact Political View Type of DRR Program : Improve the existing Capacity Structural (Infrastructures ) and Non Structural (Local People) Decrease the Hazard Long term conceptual effort, unrealistic Prepare Most Probable Consequence Short Term
Water (Flood & Drought) Disaster Management and Climate Change in West Java, Indonesia
Most frequent and a well known disaster in Indonesia Caused by :
Maximum annual rainfall current discussion Extreme climate : La Nina Tidal surge Rob Tsunami
Regular
Irregular
Collateral disaster : Famine and Epidemie Environment disaster Economic failure Type of flood disaster : Disaster Scale
Small scale : bad drainage/flood control system under designed or chucking Large scale : Increasing flood hydrograph due to the catchments area degradation or climate change and tsunami
Flood sources :
Local: Maximum annual of daily precipitation Distance Flood : propagated flood from upstream area or tsunami
Water (Flood & Drought) Disaster Management and Climate Change in West Java, Indonesia
Regular Flood (up to 200mm/day)
Tsunami
Most unpredictable historical/hypothetical data are available Less structural mitigation Focused on emergency response and TEWS High risk : unacceptable losses/damages Most of the survivor resisting to going back to their vulnerable home land.
La Nina
Early warning system is available (from very poor to poor) Vulnerable community trying to live with affordable/acceptable losses. Constraint : unresolved social economic problem political and high cost/technology solution
Amplified warning effective loss reduction
Tide Surge
Bad assessment less prepared/awareness
In accurate assessment of Sea Level Rise and Land Subsidence
Water (Flood & Drought) Disaster Management and Climate Change in West Java, Indonesia 9
Total urban area % (java-bali spatial plan) 2000 - 2025
•
• •
Most Populated and Developed Area in Indonesia highest contribution for National Development with more than 60 % of Indonesian GDP/GNP Jakarta, West Java and Banten Provinces Water Related Disaster and Climate Change : Flood, Tsunami, Drought, Coastal Degradation, Sea Intrusion, Baby Tornado (Puting Beliung), Forest Fire, Ground Water etc.
Water (Flood & Drought) Disaster Management and Climate Change in West Java, Indonesia 1937
1992
1972
2000
1983
2005
Jakarta in VOC era ( fist column : Top, Berkeley WEB, Below Delft WEB) and current condition ( rest of the columns, DKI)
Water (Flood & Drought) Disaster Management and Climate Change in West Java, Indonesia
40 % of ± 65.000 Ha is below sea level
Water (Flood & Drought) Disaster Management and Climate Change in West Java, Indonesia River/Canal System for Flood Control Development
Central Govt Authority Local Govt Authority Eastern Flood Control
Water (Flood & Drought) Disaster Management and Climate Change in West Java, Indonesia Pump
Pump
Pond Pond
Java Sea
Pond Pond Low land area Polder system Polder system Low land area
Pump Pond Pond
Reservoir/Po nd
High region with gavitational drain High region with gavitational drain Flood way
Canal system Reservoir
Flood Level in Case Study Area
Reservoir
Manggarai Gate
Elevation of Jakarta Airport Highway
Thamrin Flooded Area Flood Level
Housing in Reclaimed Swamp Area Vulnerable Flood High Tide
Normalisatio n/Dreging
Sea surface level
Area below Average Sea Level
Dikes
Structural Mitigation
Ground level compared to flood level in Jakarta vulnerable area
Java Sea
Water (Flood & Drought) Disaster Management and Climate Change in West Java, Indonesia
Jakarta Flood 2002 and 2007
Water (Flood & Drought) Disaster Management and Climate Change in West Java, Indonesia
Several Current recorded flood in Jakarta Top Left Des 2013 and Right Mai 2013, Bottom Left Des 2013 and Right Jan 2014
Water (Flood & Drought) Disaster Management and Climate Change in West Java, Indonesia 16
Citarum Catchment Area (ADB, 2010, left below) and Citarum Water Management (PU, top right) Climate Change Issue in River Management : Citarum case
Water (Flood & Drought) Disaster Management and Climate Change in West Java, Indonesia Climate Change Issue in River Management : Citarum case Java Sea
Bandung Basin as an upper part of Citarum River Catchmen Area ( BBWSC, Atlas Citarum, 2012
Water (Flood & Drought) Disaster Management and Climate Change in West Java, Indonesia priorita snews.c om
sindonews.com
liputan6.com
Three weeks flooded in Dayeuh Kolot, natural flood plain area of upstream Jatiluhur Reservoir, 2013
Water (Flood & Drought) Disaster Management and Climate Change in West Java, Indonesia
Batujajar Bridge - Photo: The Sun, 2009
190 Tons of organic waste from farming (8,000 cows produce 24 kg of waste each)
The annual uncollected garbage that invariably ends up accumulating in the drainage system and rivers amounts 500,000 m3/year
Water (Flood & Drought) Disaster Management and Climate Change in West Java, Indonesia Land Use Problem
Change
Pengalengan, Ciwidey, Southern part of upstream area, msbadrik 2005 and City Center, msbadrik 2010
SEDIMENTATION IN SAGULING FOTO DOC. CITACITARUM, AGUSTUS 2011, BBWSC
Average annual sedimentation into the three reservoirs estimated at 8 million m3/year This caused flood in rainy season and water scarcity in the dry season (ASER 2008, BPLHD)
Water (Flood & Drought) Disaster Management and Climate Change in West Java, Indonesia Cimeta Reservoir, Vol : 970 103 m3. Dependable flow : 2.45 m3/sec.
Cost : Rp 176 B
Ciwidey Reservoir Vol : 743 103 m3. Dependable flow : 1.88 m3/sec.
Sukawana Reservoir Vol : 719 103 m3. Dependable flow : 1.82 m3/sec. Cost : Rp 106 B
5 Small Reservoir Cikukang Res Vol : 319 103 m3. Cost : Rp 36 B Res Ciawiruka Res Cipanengah1 Res Cipanengah2 Res Cipanengah3
Citarik Reservoir Vol : 307 103 m3. Dependable flow : 0.8 m3/sec. Cost : Rp 86 B
Cibataruta Reservoir Vol : 500 103 m3. Dependable flow : 1.2 m3/sec. Cost : Rp 120 B
Sentosa Reservoir Vol : 15 106 m3
River Proposed Reservoir Existing Reservoir
Kadaleman Reservoir Vol : 1.6 106 m3. Inudated area : 55.4 Ha.
Inundated Area Inter basin
Structural Mitigation : Storage System, River normalization and dikes, ITB-Kompas, 2010)
Water (Flood & Drought) Disaster Management and Climate Change in West Java, Indonesia 2 2
22 Before normalization project
After fist stage of normalization project
After 2nd stage of normalization project
1986 Inundation Area 8600 Ha
1994 Inundation Area = 5100 Ha
2001 Inundation Area :
After final stage of normalization
Two year After normalization project
Two year After normalization project
2003 : Inundation Area = 820 Ha
2005 : Inundation Area = 1120 ha
2010 Inundation Area ≈ 5100 Ha
Source: ICWRMP
Water (Flood & Drought) Disaster Management and Climate Change in West Java, Indonesia 23
Water Scarcity in 2012
Jatiluhur, Citarum River, West Java
Pacal, West Java
Gajah Mungkur , Solo River, West Java
Water (Flood & Drought) Disaster Management and Climate Change in West Java, Indonesia 24
Forest Fire Event in 2012
Ciremai West Java
Rokan Hulu, Sumatera, tv one
Papandayan, West Java
Agung, Bali island, detik.com
Sindoro, Central Java
Rinjani, Lombok Island, detik.com
Research Activities and Contribution
Supporting Institution (Donor, Experts/Engi neers, NGO etc)
Stake holder Government Local/Center
People of disaster prone area
Disaster Stake holder Potensial Resources Sharing for Appropriate Contribution
Flood and Drought Problem : Very complex from engineering to social and environment aspect Resources Support : Lack of Data, Limited Budget and un appropriate Methodology Cooperation with the stake holder of related disaster resources optimization for the most applicable solution where each of them contribute based on their capacity
Flood and Drought Problem : Very complex from engineering to social and environment aspect Resources Support : Lack of Data, Limited Budget and un appropriate Methodology Cooperation with the stake holder of related disaster resources optimization for the most applicable solution where each of them contribute based on their capacity
hon
Kali Krukut Atas
>0.8 m
0.4-0.8 m
0.0-0.4 m
PA Isti qla l
Waduk Setiabud i
Sip
Waduk Melat i
PA hon
PA T
Kali Ciliwung (Gn. Sahari)
Kali Ciliwung (Kota)
Kali Besar
Kali Krukut Bawah
Kali Muara Angke
Kali Ciliwung (Kota)
Kali Muara Angke
Kali Ciliwung (Kota)
Kali Banjir Kanal
Kali Ciliwung 2
Pompa
Kali Muara Karang
Kali Banjir Kanal
PA Ka r et
Kali Cideng Bawah
Kali Ciliwung (Gn. Sahari)
Kali Ciliwung (Kota)
Kali Besar
Kali Krukut Bawah
i
One of the basic idea for “giant sea wall” development)
Kali Banjir Kanal
Kali Banjir Kanal
an g k
Source: Kali Ciliwung 1
Sip
Kali Ciliwung 2
Waduk Melati PA T PA Jem Me b ata rah n
Source: Kali Cideng Atas
PA
Kali Muara Karang
Anak Kali Ciliwung
Source: Kali Krukut Atas
Waduk Setiabudi
Kali Cideng Bawah
Kali Banjir Kanal
Kali Banjir Kanal
Source: Kali Mampang
Kali Krukut Atas Pompa
Source: Kali Ciliwung 1
Source: Kali Cideng Atas
Source: Kali Krukut Atas
Source: Kali Mampang
LAUT
Waduk Pluit
WADUK MUARA
Waduk Pluit
Ana k Kali Ciliwung
an g k
PA Jem Me b ata rah n
i
PA Ka r et PA Isti qla l
Ma n gg a ra i
Ma n gg a ra i
0.0-0.2 m
Flood 2002 based on 1000 years Return period left with existing flood control, right supported with estuary reservoir (still required river normalization to have steeper slope)
The masterplan of Jakarta
Hotel
Housing
The effectiveness of large polder in coastal area
Shoping
Office
Multi Purpose Flood Diversion Tunnel in Jakarta
Multi Purpose Flood Diversion Tunnel in Jakarta
Population
Night + 8,9 M
Day + 10,2 M
Women 49.97%
Childern < 15 Y : 7.35%
Old People > 60 Y : 5.65%
Family
: 2,25 M House hold
Density :
13-15 103 people/km2
Average :
High : 20-30 103 People/km2
• Simple method (ITB)
Field observation Visual and Interview with local people Could be used to confirm the flood map
Pump Pond
Non Structural Mitigation Polder System Risk map was developed for Improving Local People Capacity by
Flood 2007 Dike PENINGKATAN KAPASITAS PEMERINTAH DAERAH BERSAMA MASYARAKAT DALAM SISTEM PERINGATAN DINI BENCANA BANJIR DI DKI JAKARTA Jakarta, 8 – 11 Juni 2008
Recorded Rainfall during flood in 2007 PA Manggarai Bukit Duri
Kalibata
Curah Hujan Pada DAS Ciliw ung Tengah (03 Februari 2007)
Lenteng Agung
225 195
200
195
175
125 101.5
101.5
106
101.5 74.5
74.5
Lenteng Agung
100
PA. Depok
R (mm)
150 Depok
75 50.5
50
Cibinong
Bogor Kb. Raya
PA. Manggarai
Kalibata
Cibinong
Kb. Raya
Bd. Katulampa
Kab. Bogor
0
Bukit Duri
25
Katulampa
Kab. bogor
Flood 2007 in the Location of Bukit Duri (12 Community) Kebon Baru (14 Community)
Flood Hazard Map – FHM berbasis RW
Inundated area more than 2 meter 4 RW di Bukit Duri (9,10,11,12) 7 RW di Kebon Baru (1,2,3,4,8,9,10)
FHM Index Index 4: more than 80% is inundated > 2 meter Index 3: 40%-80% of The area is inundated Index 2: 10%-40% of The area is inundated Index 1: Less then 10% of The area is inundated
Capacity
Parameter:
River/Drainage Capacity : Dike, Pumps, Canal
Early Warning
Stake Holder (Especially Local Peaple) Awareness/Capacity
Capacity Index = 0.5 x Dike index + 0.5 x Pump index
Index 4 : very good
Index 3 : goood
Index 2 : Low
Index 1 : Very low
Risk Risk Index
Existing
Index 4 : Very High
Index 3 High
Index 2 : Medium
Index 1 : Low
Optimistic and Pesimisstic Intervention
Risk = Hazard X Vulnerability / Capacity
• There are 376 rainfall stations in Citarum River Basin with different data sources for the period of 1980-2008.
Data Availability 70% (142 stations)
Data Availability >90% (26stations)
From those 376 rainfall station : 1.Only 26 stations (6.9% of the total rainfall stations) consist of very good data record with data availability more than 90%; 2.142 stations (37.8% of the total rainfall stations) consist of relatively good data records with data availability more than 70%; 3.192 stations (51.2% of the total rainfall stations) consist of data records with data availability less than 50%
44
Drown Stream
Central Stream
Upstream
Trend: Changes in rainfall trend tend to occur in lower Citarum, where rainfall in wet season tends to increase while rainfall in dry season tends to decrease
Monthly Average Rainfall in CRB
Monthly Average Rainfall in Lower CRB
45
Trend: Based on data from maximum daily rainfall for the period of 1980-1989, 1990-1999, and 2000-2009, there are no change in extreme value for return period of 5 and 10 years (Kusuma, Arno and Farid).
Monthly rainfall seems to have a strong correlation with monthly discharge which indicates the typical of runoff in developed area with high variation between wet and dry season and relatively low base flow (Kusuma, Arno and Farid)
43
36
29
22
15
0
2
35 30
4
60
6
50
25
8
20
10
15
12
30
14
20
10
Q (m3/jam)
Q (m3/jam)
70
8
0
1
43
36
29
22
15
8
1
40
2 4
6 8
40
10 12 14
16
5
18 20
0 0
5
10
15
20
25 t (Hours)
30
Reff Horton
Inf Horton
SCS
ITB 1
ITB 2
Q (Data)
35
40
45
Nakayasu
16
10
18
0
20 0
5
10
15
20
25 t (Hours)
30
Reff Horton
Inf Horton
SCS
ITB 1
ITB 2
Q (Data)
Spatial Distribution of Rainfall-Runoff Hydrograph
35
40
Nakayasu
45
Update hazard method : Depth-Damage Curve for Residential Structure in Citarum
(USACE 1997, 2003, 2006, 2007, Stefen Reese 2010 (Timber and Masonry), Middleman 2010)
Damage Factor (%)
80 60 40 20 0
-1
1
3 Flood Depth (m)
5
GROUP II(ANUFLOOD, HIS-SSM, ONTARIO, FEMA 1995, BOWSHORE, RF, Hydrotech (2001, 2002))
Depth-Damage Curve for Residential Structure in Jakarta and Surakarta 100
90 Brick wallConcr ete FloorClay Roof
80
Tingkat Kerusakan (%)
Depth-Damage Curve for Residential Structure in some countries Europe, Australia, United 100 State . GROUP I
70 60 50
40 30 20 10 0 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 Kedalaman Genangan (m)
Hazard Level based on BNPB ( National Guidleine For Flood Study No.02, 2012) : D < 0.76 m, Low Hazrad D 0.76 m – 1.5 m Medium hazard, D > 1.5 m High Hazard.
Agriculture
Housing
Kurva kedalaman kerusakan untuk Pertanian (sawah) GROUP I ( HISSSM, HKV, Rhine Atlas)
100
90 y = 0.4672x4 - 6.2233x3 + 22.51x2 + 4.768x R² = 0.9974
80 70 60
GROUP II (RWS (Van der Sandle et al 2003), HKV 2007, Flemish , Penning-Rowsell et al 2003) GROUP III (Grossman 2004)
DF_ Agr
80
Tingkat Keruskan (%)
90
Tingkat Kerusakan ( %)
100
DF Isi
70 60 50
50 Citarum (proposed)
40
40
DF_I nd
30
30 Paddy, Bangladesh
20
20
DF Res DF struktur
10
10 Gusti&Pandjung
0 0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
Kedalaman Genangan (m)
4
4.5
5
0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 Kedalaman Genangan (m) Residential
Struktur
SPI-1 - 2. 05783
- 2. 048249
- 2. 076011
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SPI-3 -2
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-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-3
-2
-2
-1
-1
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
0
-1
-1
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-2
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-4
-4
-4
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-4
-4
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-2
-1
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
1
1
1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
1
1
-2
1
1
1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-4
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
1
1
1
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
-1
1
1
1
1
1
-1
-2
-2
-1
-1
-1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
-1
-1
-1
-2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
1
2
1
1
-1
-1
-2
-2
-2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
-1
-1
-1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
-1
-1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-2
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-2
-1
-1
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-1
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
4
Sangat Basah
3
Basah
2
Agak Basah
0
Normal
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-4
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
Agak Kering
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-4
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-2
-2
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-2
-2
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
4
Sangat Basah
3
Basah Agak Basah
-2
2
0
Normal
0. 5
-2
-3
Kering
-5
Sangat Kering
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
1
1
-1
Agak Kering
-3
Kering
-5
Sangat Kering
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-2
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-1
-1
-2
-2
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-1
-2
-2
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-2
-2
-2
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
0
-1
-2
0
-2
-5
-1
-6
-7
Maret
Maret
Ekstrim Basah Sangat Basah Agak Basah Sedikit Basah Awal Selang Basah Mendekati Normal Awal Selang Kering Sedikit Kering Agak Kering Sangat Kering Ekstrim Kering
-1
1
1
1
1
-1
-1
-1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
-4
-4
-4
-4
-3
-3
-4
-3
-4
-4
-4
-4
-4
-3
-3
-3
-3
-4
-4
-4
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-4
-4
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-4
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-4
-3
-3
-4
-4
-4
-4
-4
-3
-3
-3
-4
-4
-4
-4
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-4
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-4
-4
-4
-4
-4
-4
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-4
-4
-4
-4
-4
-4
-4
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-4
-4
-4
-4
-4
-4
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-4
-4
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-4
-4
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-3
-2
-3
-3
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
-1
-1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
-1
-1
-1
-1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
-1
-1
-1
-1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
-1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
2
2
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
1
2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-4
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-4
-4
-4
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-4
-4
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-4
-3
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
1
1
2
2
1
2
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-2
-2
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-1
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-1
1
1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
1
1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-4
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-4
-4
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-4
-4
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-4
-4
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-4
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-4
-4
-4
-4
-4
-4
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-2
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-4
-4
-4
-4
-4
-4
-4
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-2
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-4
-4
-4
-4
-4
-4
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-2
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-4
-4
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-4
-4
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-3
-2
-3
-3
-2
-2
-3
-3
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-4
-4
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-4
-4
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-4
-2
-4
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-4
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-2
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-1
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-1
-2
-3
-3
-3
4
2
1
4
Sangat Basah
3
Basah
2
Agak Basah
0
Normal
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
Agak Kering
-3
Kering
-5
Sangat Kering
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
1
1
1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-2
1
1
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
1
1
1
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
2
2
2
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
2
2
1
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
-1
1
1
1
-1
-2
-2
-1
-1
-1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
-1
-1
-1
-2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
1
2
1
1
-1
-1
-2
-2
-2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
-1
-1
-1
-1
0
0
0
0
0
-1
0
0
0
0
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
1
0
0
0
-2
-1
-1
-1
2
2
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
0
1
-1
-1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
-1
-1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
0
0
0
1
-1
-2
-2
-1
0
-1
-1
-1
2
2
1
1
1
1
-1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
-2
-1
1
1
-1
1
1
1
1
2
Sangat Basah
3
Basah
-1
2
Agak Basah
0
Normal
-1
Agak Kering
-3
Kering
-5
Sangat Kering
1
1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
-1
1
-1
-1
-1
1
-1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
-1
-1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
2
2
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
2
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
0
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
2
2
1
2
-2
1
1
1
1
1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
0
-2
-2
0
0
0
0
1
-1
-1
0
0
0
0
-2
1
1
-1
-1
-1
1
1
0
0
0
1
-1
-1
0
0
0
1
1
0
1
0
0
2
1
0
0
0
0
-2
-1
-1
-1
1
1
1
1
1
0
-3
-2
-1
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
-1
-2
-2
-2
-1
-1
1
1
1
0
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
-1
-2
-1
-1
0
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
1
1
1
1
1
1
-1
0
0
0
0
-1
0
0
-1
-2
1
1
1
4
3
2
Sangat Basah
3
Basah
2
Agak Basah
0
Normal
2
-1
Agak Kering
-3
Kering
-5
Sangat Kering
1
0
0
0
0. 5
1
0
-2
1
1
1
0
1
0
0
1
1
2
2
2
2
1
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
-1
1
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
-1 -3
-5
1
-6
2
3
2
1
2
1
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
-7
1
3
Ekstrim Basah Sangat Basah Agak Basah Sedikit Basah Awal Selang Basah Mendekati Normal Awal Selang Kering Sedikit Kering Agak Kering Sangat Kering Ekstrim Kering
Mare t
-2
-2
1
1
1
4
Maret -2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-1
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
1
-1
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
-1
-1
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
-1
-1
-2
-1
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-2
-2
-1
-1
-1
-1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Sangat Basah
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-1
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
3
Basah
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
2
Agak Basah
0
Normal
-3
-1
Agak Kering
-3
Kering
-5
Sangat Kering
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
0
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
0
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-1 -5
-2
-6
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-2
-1
-1
-1
-1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
-1
-1
-1
-7
Ekstrim Basah Sangat Basah Agak Basah Sedikit Basah Awal Selang Basah Mendekati Normal Awal Selang Kering Sedikit Kering Agak Kering Sangat Kering Ekstrim Kering
-1
-1
-1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Mei
Dry Year 1997
-2
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
September
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
-1
-1
-1
1
1
-1
-1
-1
-1
1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
-1
-1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
1
-1
1
1
1
1
1
1
-1
1
1
1
1
-2
1
-1
-1
-1
1
-1
-1
1
-1
1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
1
1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-1
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
4
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
3
-2
2
-2
1
-2
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
1
1
1
1
1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
1
1
1
1
1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
1
1
1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
1
1
1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
1
1
1
-1
1
-1
-1
1
-1
1
-1
-1
1
1
-1
-1
-1 -2
Mei
2
2
2
-2
1
4
-2
0. 5
-2
4
-3
-3
-3
-2
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
-1
1
-2
3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-1
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
-3
-3
-3
1
Maret
Maret
-3
-3
-3
2
2
-2
-3
-3
-2
-2 -3
-3
-2
-2
-4
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-3
-2
-2
-2
1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
1
-4
-3
-2
-2
-2
1
-2
-3
2
2
-2
-2
-2
-2
1
-2
-3
-2
-2
-2
-1
1
1
3
-3
-4
-2
-2
-2
-1
-1
-1
4
1
-2
-1
-3
-2
-2
-2
-1
-1
-1 -2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-2
-2
-2
1
1
1 -3
-2
-2
2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-2
-2
-2
-1
1
-2
-2
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-2
-3
-2
-2
1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-2
-2
-3
-3
-2
-3
-2
-3
-3
-2 -2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-2
-3
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
1 -2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
PDSI
SPI-3
SPI-1
Agust us
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-1
-1
-1
-2
-2
-2
0. 5
1
4
Sangat Basah
3
Basah
2
Agak Basah
0
Normal
-1
Agak Kering
-3
Kering
-5
Sangat Kering
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-3
-2
-3
-3
-2
-2
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-3
-2
-2
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-1
-1
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-1
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-1
-1
4
Sangat Basah
3
Basah
-2
2
Agak Basah
-3
0
Normal
-5
-3
-1
Agak Kering
-3
Kering
-5
Sangat Kering
Agustus
0
-6
-7
Agustus
Wet Year 2007
SPI = Standard Precipitation Index (1 for one month and 3 for three month) PDSI (Palmer Drought Standard Index)
Ekstrim Basah Sangat Basah Agak Basah Sedikit Basah Awal Selang Basah Mendekati Normal Awal Selang Kering Sedikit Kering Agak Kering Sangat Kering Ekstrim Kering
2
SPI-1
2 1.5
1.5
1
1 0.5 Hulu
0
Tengah
-0.5 -1
Hilir
SPI-3
SPI-1
0.5
Hulu
0
Tengah
-0.5 -1
Hilir
-1.5
-1.5 -2 100%
SPI-3
80%
60%
40%
20%
-2 100%
0%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Area
Area 4
PDSI
3
DROUGHT SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION IN 1997
2 PDSI
1
Hulu
0
Tengah
-1
Hilir
-2 -3
-4 100%
80%
60%
40% Area
20%
0%
Spi-1 : 70% of downstream dry and 50% Very Dry. SPI-3 : 70% Dry and 45%. Very dry PDSI : 32% Dry and 4% Very dry
PDSI Scale of the East-West Cross Section of Lower Citarum River Basin
PDSI Scale along NorthSouth Cross Section of Citarum River Basin
Karawang
Purwakarta Bandung
Establishment of new Undergraduate Program of Water Resources Management and Engineering in ITB 54
Climate change adaptation effort is a long term effort.
Lack of water resources engineering expert in water related Government and Private Institution
The most appropriate systematic effort from university
Supported by Ministry of Public Work, Min of Education and Local Government.
Improving Data Base Updating assessment methodology : flood hydrograph, and hydraulic/hydrology model Developing disaster risk map of both flood and drought Developing Applicable Action Plan for Local Stake Holder Contribution to Building Code Development and Improvement Technology Application for DRRP Capacity Building : New Program Study, Training Research, Education and Community Services
Climate Variability
International/Nationa l Funding Institution
Climate Change
Program Cooperation
International Researh Institutuion : Asia Universities etc
Global
La Nina, El Nino, Monson etc
Regional Local
Model : Downscaling,RainfalRunoff, Risk etc
Land Use etc Water Related Impacts
Local Authority
Data, Implementation and Policy
Drought
Flood
Other Impacts
Research
Join research on particular themes
People Awareness Private Sector and Local People Involvement
Mitigation Plan
Implementation
Asia Country Universities and Research Institution
Local Level Policy and Action Plan Program
National and Local Intitution Join research on particular themes
Thank You KAMPUNKA TERIMAH KASIH
