Photo Courtesy Vestas Wind Systems AS
Renewable Energy - Supply Chain Requirements, Opportunities and Constraints Wind, Water and Biomass 29th September 2004 EDAS
Stephen Kerr B Eng (Aero) C Eng MIMechE 01 October 2004
© Avayl Engineering Consultancy
Introduction What are the technologies and supply chain requirements? What are the opportunities and constraints?
01 October 2004
© Avayl Engineering Consultancy
Technologies Wind Onshore Offshore
Water Wave – near shore / far shore Tidal – barrage / in situ device
Biomass Thermal - forestry residues / dedicated energy crops / municipal and domestic waste Anearobic digestion - agricultural residues / municipal and domestic waste Landfill gas - municipal and domestic waste
01 October 2004
© Avayl Engineering Consultancy
01 October 2004
© Avayl Engineering Consultancy
01 October 2004
© Avayl Engineering Consultancy
01 October 2004
© Avayl Engineering Consultancy
Domestic wood pellet boiler 8MW Gasifier plant 01 October 2004
© Avayl Engineering Consultancy
Pelletisation
When? …all now
01 October 2004
© Avayl Engineering Consultancy
Scotland – Current Status
Biomass Coal Coal, co-firing with biomass Hydro Landfill Gas Nuclear Off-shore wind Oil and Gas On-shore wind Pulp and paper Pumped storage Wave Grand Total
01 October 2004
19.0 1,152.0 2,304.0 1,323.9 23.7 2,735.0 3,558.0 236.2 8.3 705.0 0.0 12,065.1
55.7
16.0 1.9 180.0 400.0 744.7
1,342.6
22.5
119.8
28.7
3.6
5.5 87.5
2,601.5
3,777.1
161.2
27.6
2,777.0
3,805.8
© Avayl Engineering Consultancy
164.8
Grand Total
SRO - Outstanding
Withdrawn/Refused
Pre-application notified
Application notified
Consented
Technology
Status
Existing
Sum of Capacity (in MW)
97.2 1,152.0 2,304.0 1,497.4 113.1 2,735.0 180.0 3,958.0 7,548.3
8.3 705.0 0.0 143.1 20,298.3
Technologies - Issues Wind Well developed leading concept – evolutionary R&D by market leaders Cost competitive with fossil fuels Rapid up-scaling – manufacturing / logistics / operations focus
Water Multitude of concepts – none well proven Not currently cost competitive with fossil fuels Technological challenges – design / survivability / maintainability Will tend to large scale – MW devices 01 October 2004
© Avayl Engineering Consultancy
Technologies - Issues Biomass Several concepts / technologies relevant – large & small scale Cost competitive with fossil fuels in certain situations Ongoing developments in plant efficiency Offers security of supply and base generation Thermal - dominant technology, good fit with agricultural activity but fuel supply chain difficulties to date Anearobic digestion - sparsely deployed Both offer competitive heat generation / co-firing options Landfill gas – short term solution All address waste management issues to varying degrees Poorly supported to date in UK (policy, planning and public acceptance) but signs of change
01 October 2004
© Avayl Engineering Consultancy
Some Examples of Current Activity – Manufacturing / Supply
Shetland
Orkney, Brian Rendall Electrical installation Arnish Point, Cambrian Engineering - piles / towers
Brora, Edward MacKay Civil Works and Transportation
Glenelg, Chillwind mast installation
Ross Deeptech – Nigg, Isleburn fabrication Pelamis - piles / towers Wavegen – OWC near Balmoral Composites shore device – GRP nacelle covers
Kirkcaldy NOI Scotland – blades OPD – Pelamis device
Machrihanish Vestas Celtic – turbine / Nordex – Turbine towers servicing base Kilmarnock, Proven Engineering – micro turbines
01 October 2004
© Avayl Engineering Consultancy
Wind – Supply Chain Value Analysis
01 October 2004
© Avayl Engineering Consultancy
Supply Chain Value analysis Onshore wind farm Turbine 57%
Circa 30% UK content currently
Project Management & Design 2% Legal & Financial 5% Project Development Studies 3%
01 October 2004
Civil Construction 13% Main connections 11%
MEI Installation 6%
Transportation & Installation 3%
© Avayl Engineering Consultancy
Supply Chain Value analysis Turbine value analysis Yaw assembly 10%
Pitch control 8%
Gearbox 11%
Generator 6% Main shaft 5% Other 5% Nacelle cover 4% Assembly time 4% Hub assembly 3% Bed plate 2%
Tower 12% Control system 14% 01 October 2004
© Avayl Engineering Consultancy
Blades 16%
Layout GE Wind 3.6 MW Separated drive train & crane system
14 m 5 . 4 01 October 2004
© Avayl Engineering Consultancy
m
01 October 2004
© Avayl Engineering Consultancy
Supply Chain Value analysis Main turbine manufacturers 2002 Data Company Vestas Enercon NEG Micon Gamesa GE Wind Bonus Nordex Made RePower Ecotecnia Others
MW Turnover Country Produced % Share £M Employees DK 1,640 22% 836 5,974 DE 1,333 18% 720 6,800 DK 1,030 14% 505 2,180 ESP 924 12% 350 1,398 US 638 8% n/a 1,700 DK 509 7% 167 800 DE 504 7% 267 791 ESP 247 3% n/a n/a DE 223 3% 151 390 ESP 120 2% n/a 350 371 5%
Source: EurObservRE 2004 01 October 2004
© Avayl Engineering Consultancy
Supply Chain Value analysis Areas of opportunities for Scotland Large scale turbine assembly facilities Large scale blade manufacture Tower / sub assembly steel fabricator(s) and other support services / trades Manufacture of other composite items e.g. nacelle covers Supply of control system components Supply of sub system components, fixtures and fittings 01 October 2004
© Avayl Engineering Consultancy
Supply Chain Value analysis Areas of opportunities for Scotland Manufacture of small wind turbines for community / industrial use Development / Environmental studies Site construction works Heavy haulage and heavy lift cranes Mast fabrication / erection Operations / servicing hub Turbine Research, Development & Test Centre Next generation R&D – 10MW turbine 01 October 2004
© Avayl Engineering Consultancy
Opportunities – Lesson from wind and other industries Research & Development Demonstration / Testing / Standards Commercialisation – risk funding Manufacture for domestic market Manufacture for export market Construction / Operations More difficult to enter the higher value elements later on… 01 October 2004
© Avayl Engineering Consultancy
Wave & Tidal - Opportunities Increase R&D in Scotland Design – IP rights Testing – EMEC Demonstration projects Manufacture of components Fabrication of structure Operational support Export 01 October 2004
© Avayl Engineering Consultancy
Wave & Tidal - Constraints Level of funding still relatively poor “Wave / Tidal are long term opportunities…” yes, but in terms of large scale commercial generation Grid connection / electricity pricing Funding commercialisation process
01 October 2004
© Avayl Engineering Consultancy
Biomass – Supply Chain Analysis Other 22%
Installation 18%
Electrical Systems 10% Cooling tower (air cooled) 4%
Fuel Supply 12% Bulk material handling 7%
Steam turbine & generator 7% Boiler Continuous emissions 9% monitoring Dust removal collection /Bottom ash collection / 1% transfer transfer 2% 2%
Combustion System 6%
Source : DTI
01 October 2004
© Avayl Engineering Consultancy
Biomass - Opportunities Increase R&D in Scotland to suit Scottish conditions Fuel stock District heating schemes Off grid developments
Fuel transportation network – bulk material handling Domestic installations / servicing Agricultural diversification 01 October 2004
© Avayl Engineering Consultancy
Biomass - Constraints Public support much lower than other renewable technologies (although still much higher than fossil / nuclear) Fuel supply chain fragmented Bulk of equipment is imported – little R&D in Scotland aimed at technology Overall lack of confidence in sporadic market – developer / suppliers, need long term national support 01 October 2004
© Avayl Engineering Consultancy
Scotland - Jobs Potential Wind Onshore now 1200 Offshore now 100
peak 2500? peak 1000?
Water now circa 200
peak 5000?
Biomass now circa 250
peak 2000?
Generally high quality long term jobs academic through manufacture, construction and operations 01 October 2004
© Avayl Engineering Consultancy
