Renewable Energies Business Presentation Meeting
October 17, 2006 Power Systems Headquarters
All copyright and intellectual property regarding this material belong to Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd.
1.Position of Power Systems Segment in MHI FY2005 Actual
FY2008 (Business Plan for FY2006)
Power 25% Systems Segment
Consolidated net sales 2.8 trillion yen
Power 29% Systems Segment
Consolidated net sales 3.0 trillion yen
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2. Power Systems Headquarters – Business Policy
Concentrate on growth areas Raise profitability
Change product strategy
Concentrate resources on GTCC and renewable
・・・ energy-related products (wind turbines, solar cells, etc.) .
Expand sales of highly profitable products.
・・・ Expand service/maintenance business. ・・・
Shift emphasis from generally available products to those using MHI’s unique, cutting-edge technologies (air-blown IGCC, BFG-fired GTCC, thin film amorphous silicon (a-Si) type solar cells, and high-temperature gas turbines)
GTCC; Gas Turbine Combined Cycle, BFG; Blast Furnace Gas IGCC; Integrated coal Gasification Combined Cycle All copyright and intellectual property regarding this material belong to Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd.
3.Composition of Products and Their Contribution to Sales/Income ・・・(In index figures) ・・・
Nonconsolidated net sales 100
136 (+36) Other (+4) Large conventional power plant, industrial use, marine machinery, etc.
GTCC (+20)
Wind power generation system
Solar power generation system
GTCC
Large conventional power plant
Renewable energies (+12) FY’05-FY’06 FY’07-FY’08 Average Average
Ordinary income 100
157 (+57) Other
(+9)
Large conventional power plant, industrial use, marine machinery, etc.
GTCC (+27) Renewable energies (+21) FY’05-FY’06 FY’07-FY’08 Average Average
(+21) Industrial use
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Marine machinery
4. Power Systems Headquarters – Capital Investment Plans ・・・ (In
index figures) ・・・ 220%
(+120%) Other (540%)
100%
GTCC (130%) Renewable energies (190%)
FY’03-FY’05 Average (Actual)
FY’06-FY’08 Average (Target)
Major capital investment projects ahead: ・ Facilities to produce gas turbine hot parts ・ Plant to produce microcrystalline tandem solar modules (additional plant enlargement being considered) ・ Wind turbines production facilities ・ Facilities to produce gas turbine/steam turbine main bodies
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5-1.Power Systems Headquarters – Products Portfolio (1/2) GTCC Gas engines
MHI’s position in the market Growth areas with aggressive investment
Opportunities for MHI Wind turbines
Industrial conventional
Large Solar cells
GTCC
Expansion
Respond to the market’s rapid expansion and secure short-term profit.
Marine machinery
Large Conventional
Small Stability
Many Intensified entrants in competition to the market lead to selection
Maturity (Decline)
Survivors to enjoy profit
Wind turbines
Take a lead with MHI’s technological superiority. Increase market share by expanding alliances.
Areas to be maintained with stable growth
Large conventional power plant, Industrial conventional, Marine machinery Mature businesses generating stable income and forming the basis of the Headquarters’ business.
Maturity phases
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Current products
Solar cells Make investments as large in scale as those in the electronics industry in order to achieve growth.
IGCC Lithium batteries Fuel cells
Next large-scale products
5-2.Power Systems Headquarters – Products Portfolio (2/2) Market share
Market size and market share
Amount of investment and profitability
(Size of circle corresponds to size of sales.)
Profitability
( Size of circle corresponds to size of sales. )
Industrial Solar cells
Marine machinery
30%
Wind turbines
GTCC 20%
Large Conventional
10%
Solar cells
2
GTCC
Industrial
10%
Marine machinery
Large conventional
Wind turbines
4
Market size (Trillions of yen) All copyright and intellectual property regarding this material belong to Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd.
Amount of investment
6. Long-term Projection of Global Demand for Primary Energies 500 Solar Thermal Heating
Annual Primary Energy Consumption
[ ×10 6 GWh/Year ]
Other Renewable
400 300
40% to be produced from natural energies
Solar Power Wind Power
Biomass
200 Hydro Power
Nuclear Power
100
Gas
0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Coal Oil
[ Year ] All copyright and intellectual property regarding this material belong to Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd.
Reference:solarwirtschaft.de
7.Trends in Global Demand for Power Generation Systems for New Installation
GTCC 45.0 40.0
Expanding 5GW/year mainly in SE Asia and Middle East.
50.0
Projection
Actual
Oders(GW)
35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0
Cina
40.0
South Asia
35.0
East Asiaaa Africa
30.0
Middle Eas
25.0
Eastern Europe
20.0
Western Europe Centrak/South America
15.0
North America
10.0
5.0
5.0
0.0
0.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2015
2002
40.0 35.0 30.0 25.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2015
Other Asia Western Europe North America
15.0
Increase to 30GW levels. Oders(GW)
45.0
2004
20.0
South Asia East Asia Africa Middle East East Europe/CIS Western Europe Central/South America North America (ex. IGCC)
50.0
2003
Solar power
Large conventional power plant
Oders(GW)
Other
45.0
China South Asia East Asia Africa Middle East Eastern Europe/CIS Western Europe Central/South America North America
Oders (GW)
50.0
Wind turbines
20.0 15.0
10.0
5.0
10.0 5.0
0.0
0.0 2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2015
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8. Expand GTCC Business ◆ Production of gas turbines (projection) (77) Number of GTs produced 40
Production capacity
30
(68)
Production capacity of 30 units currently being established through capital investment.
(58)
(57)
40∼
40∼
30
26
24
Number of GTs in stock orders
21
20
26
30
FY’08 H20
FY’09 H21
21
10
0
30
FY’06 H18
FY’07 H19
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Produce 30plus GTs by enhancing collaboration with other companies.
9. Progress in Construction of A New Plant for Production of Gas (Takasago Machinery Works) Turbine Hot Parts ◆ Raise production capacity of hot parts ∼ Construct a new plant
Operation to start in March 2007. Amount of investment: Approx. ¥8bn
Blades plant (under construction)
Combustor Basket plant (under construction)
MHI is considering additional investments to respond to future demand in 2008 and thereafter. All copyright and intellectual property regarding this material belong to Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd.
10.Expand GTCC Business ◆ Increase production of hot parts MHI plans to achieve production increase target set for 2010 ahead of schedule in order to supply hot parts to alliance makers (in numbers besides 30 units produced).
Turbine Blades Construction of Further capital To be supplied investments a new plant to alliance (under (Takasago makers consideration) Machinery Works) 145 Utilization of 121 OSC**, etc.
Air
Air
Production capacity*
131
100
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 H17 H18 H19 H20 H21 H22 * Presented in index figures with production capacity in 2005 as 100.
Internal cooling Gas Turbine row 1Blade structure
Dry low Nox combustor ** Orlando Service Center (Service Plant of MPSA)
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11.Expand Service/Maintenance Business ・・・(In index figures) ・・・
128
Income from service/maintenance business
Sales from from service/ service/ Sales maintenance business business maintenance
100
113
98 121
100
103
130
Other Industrial conv. Large conv.
GTCC
2005
2006
2007
2008
Efforts to achieve the ratio of sales from service/maintenance business to total sales of 40% [Achieve higher customer satisfaction] 1. Expand markets of MHI products; make entries in a wider range of markets of peers’ products. Establish a global network to respond to rapidly increasing LTSAs and service/maintenance business that is facing increasing sophistication and intensifying competition. (1) Expand services operations overseas (A service company for BFG-fired GT in China, etc.) (2) Collaborate with overseas manufacturers. (3) Provide rehabilitation service of peer-made boilers and turbines. 2.Make entry into O&M market All copyright and intellectual property regarding this material belong to Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd.
12.Expand BFG-fired Gas Turbines Business ◆ MHI is receiving a growing number of orders by leveraging its unique technology. MHI maintains almost dominant market share in BFG-fired GTCCs. Going forward, MHI will leverage its unique technological superiority to win more orders from Chinese and other markets.
Order trends for BFG-fired GT
20
Delivered Under production Orders (projection)
Period ’82-’06 ’06-’08 ’07-’09
13 11 7
3,000
2,000 Capacity
15 25 Unit NOS. 1,000
10 20
Total Capacity (MW)
25
Number of units
5 15 1990
1995
2000
2005
Year
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World’s largest BFG-fired GTCC (using M701F ) Kimitsu Cooperative Thermal Power Company, Inc. (Operation started in 2004)
Orders received from: Japan: 8 units China: 12 units Eastern Europe, etc.: 4 units India and Europe:Sales activity under way
13.Trends in Global Wind Turbines Market ・ Global market is expected to continue expansion (11GW in 2005, 25GW in 2010, and 40GW in 2015). ・ Currently, Europe accounts for approx 73% of the global market. North American and Asian (China and India) markets are expected to expand sharply. 30
Annual Wind Power development
Wind turbines installed (GW/year)
Europe 25
Americas 20
Asia 15
Other 10
Already installed 5
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2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
0 Year
14.Market Share of Mitsubishi Wind Turbines ・ In 2002, MHI launched MWT-1000A on the market. In 2005, MHI accounted for 2.0% (233MW/ranked 10th) in terms of global market share (7% and 3rd in the U.S., 57% and top market share in Japan).
Top-10 Suppliers in 2005 % of the total market 11,407 MW ENERCON (GE) 13.2% GAMESA (ES) 12.9%
GE WIND (US) 17.7%
SUZLON (Ind) 6.1%
SIEMENS (DK) 5.5% REPOWER (GE) 3.1% NORDEX (GE) 2.6%
VESTAS (DK) 27.9% Others 5.0% Source: BTM Consult ApS - March 2006
ECOTÉCNIA (ES) MITSUBISHI (JP) 2.1% 2.0%
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15.Growth of North American Wind Turbines Market Market Sizing
Market Forecast Scenarios – Combined 2006 - 2010 Annual increase in MW –MW Basic scenario (2006∼2010) Add – EER Base Scenario 2006 - 2010 CAN Base Canada
4,500
USU.S. Base
4,000
Net Adds Base
6,000
4,920 4,590 5,000
4,000
5,140
4,670
0 99
USU.S. Low
4 00
3,500
8 00
2,500
4,150
0 75
Canada CAN Low 50 0
3,000
1
0 ,07
1
0 ,12
1
0 ,14
3,800 00
2,000
3,8
3,200 00
3,2
1,500
7 00
60 0
1,000
00 2,000
2,0
200 1,1,200
0 80800
500 0 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Annual increase in MW – High growth scenario MW Add – High Growth Scenario 4,000
3,800
3,600
3,600
3,400
3,000
2,000
Annual increase in MW – Low growth (2006∼2010) MWscenario Add – Low Growth Scenario
U.S. US High
Canada CAN High
6,000 5,000
1,10
80 0
4,000
0
0 1,20
1,40
00 4,200
4,4
1,50
0
0
1,000 3,000 2,000
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
4,2
4,000 00 4,0
3,800 00
3,8
00 4,500
4,400 00
4,5
1,000 0 2006
2007
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2008
2009
2010
16. Trends in Market Prices of Wind Turbines and Production Plans for Mitsubishi Wind Turbines ・ Market prices of wind turbines started to rise in 2004. Currently, the market is the “seller’s market” to the levels unseen before. ・ MHI will expand production bases for Mitsubishi wind turbines to increase production to over 1000MW in 2008.
Production plans for Mitsubishi wind turbines (MW)
Trends in prices of wind turbines (Price per output (kW) with the figure in 2004 as 100)
(MW)
(%)
1400
160 1.6
Target profit margin: 10%
140 1.4
1208
□Yokohama Plant ■Nagasaki Plant
1200 1000 800
120 1.2 100 1
0.8
600
381
400
26
200 2004 H16
2005 H17
2006 H18
2007 H19
2008 H20
0
584
671
191
261
H16 2004
H17 2005
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350 624
355
321
H18 2006
H19 2007
H20 2008
17.Plans to Expand Wind Turbines Plants (Production of nacelles at Nagasaki Plant) ・ Dedicate the Nagasaki Plant, the main wind turbines plant, to production of 2.4MW models and increase production capacity from: 480MW → 650MW +
Nagasaki Plant
Nacelle production line
Rotor head production line
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18. Production of Nacelles at Yokohama Plant (Honmoku Plant) ・
Leverage a large space at Yokohama Plant (production facilities for steel structures and bridges at Honmoku Plant to be converted) and port facilities.
・
Start production in October to produce nacelles at two plants (in Yokohama and Nagasaki).
・
Start establishing a supply chain in the Kanto area following the completion of a new nacelle production plant.
・ Secure production capacity at Yokohama Plant as high (650MW) as at Nagasaki Plant. Honmoku Nacelle Plant
Yokohama Plant (Honmoku Plant) Shipping quay
Bayside Marina
Kanazawa Plant MWT92
Wind turbines plant
Hakkeijima All copyright and intellectual property regarding this material belong to Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd.
Depot for shipment
19. Production of Nacelles at Yokohama Dockyard & Machinery Works (Honmoku Plant) Yokohama Plant (in Honmoku)
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20. Expansion of Blade Production Plant (VIENTEK) ・Capacity expansion at the Mexico plant (VIENTEK) to increase production of wind turbine blades for 2.4MW machines marketed in the core U.S. market. (Capacity expansion at the Nagasaki Plant to increase production of wind turbine blades for the Japanese market. ) Blade production capacity: up from current 400MW to 1200MW+. VIENTEK plant: blade shipment
Blade production line
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21-1. History of Developing Mitsubishi Wind Turbines
3000
2006 Yokohama city (Demo model) 2400kW
Output kW
2500
Wound induction motor Hotel New Awaji
2000
2000Kw Foote Creek, USA, 600kW
1500 WinkraEnergy, Germany, 450kW
1000 500 0
Mitsubishi Nagasaki Test Machine 40kW
Kyushu Electric Power Okino-erabu Island, 300kW
Tohoku Electric Power Tappi WP, 275 kW
Murorancity, 1000kW
NEDO Tappi WP, 500kW
Tohoku Electric Power Tappi WP, 300 kW
Squirrel cage induction motor
Okinawa New Energy Development Gushikawa 1950kW Synchronous motor
Tohoku Electric Power Tappi WP, 300kW
Hokudancho 600kW
1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 All copyright and intellectual property regarding this material belong to Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd.
Year
21-2. Delivery of Mitsubishi Wind Turbines
1400
Cumulative installation MW
1200 1000
MWT-300
MWT-S300
MWT-500
MWT-600
MWT-S600
MWT-1000
MWT-1000A
MWT-S2000
MWT92/2.4
Delivered: 2,077 units / Total output: 1,295MW
800 600 400 200
First model
Fiscal year All copyright and intellectual property regarding this material belong to Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd.
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
0
As of End/FY2005 (Operation started as of March 2006)
22. Mitsubishi Wind Turbines - Outline MWT62/1.0
Operation
MWT92/2.4, MWT95/2.4
Market launch in 2003
Market launch in 2008
1000 kW
2400 kW
Rotor Diameter
61.4 meters
92/95 meters
Hub Height
69/60 meters
70/80 meters
Rated Output
Power Regulation: Full Span Pitch Control Wind Class : IEC Class IIA All copyright and intellectual property regarding this material belong to Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd.
Rated Output: 2.4MW Rotor Diameter: 92m IEC Class IIA
23. Yokohama 2.4 MW Demo Model ・Performing a thorough examination of performance and reliability by using a demo model of large-sized wind turbine at the Yokohama Plant (in Kanazawa)
New Model (MWT92/2.4) Demo model (full view)
Demo model (Nacelle, rotor head)
Test: lightening damage to wind turbine blade (demo model; Apr 2, 2006). 63 coulomb measured. No problem detected. Assembly of nacelle (Nagasaki plant)
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24. Mitsubishi Wind Turbines in the U.S. Total 1,850MW 2,475 units (sales as of may 2006) Oregon Oregon Area Area Condon :: 600kW Condon 600kW × × 83 83 units units Combine Combine Hills Hills :1000kW :1000kW xx 41units 41units Total 90.8MW 124units Total 90.8MW 124units
Tehachiapi Tehachiapi California California Area Area ToyowestⅠ:250kW × ToyowestⅠ:250kW × 20 20 units units Mojave’89 Mojave’89 :275kW :275kW ×340 ×340 units units Mojave’90 Mojave’90 :275kW :275kW ×300 ×300 units units Mojave’99 :600kW × 30 units Mojave’99 :600kW × 30 units Morwind Morwind :600kW :600kW × × 29 29 units units Mogul :500kW Mogul :500kW × × 88 units units OASIS :1000kW OASIS :1000kW xx 60units 60units Total 280MW 787 Total 280MW 787 units units
Palm Palm Springs Springs California California Area Area Mountain ViewⅠ: 600kW Mountain ViewⅠ: 600kW × × 74 74 units units Mountain Mountain ViewⅡ: ViewⅡ: 600kW 600kW × × 37 37 units units Total Total 66.6MW 66.6MW 111 111 units units
Wyoming Wyoming Area Area Foot Foot Creek Creek Ⅰ: Ⅰ: 600kW 600kW × × 69 69 units units Foot Creek Ⅱ: 600kW × 3 units Foot Creek Ⅱ: 600kW × 3 units Foot Foot Creek Creek Ⅳ: Ⅳ: 600kW 600kW × × 28 28 units units Rock Rock RiverⅠ RiverⅠ :1000kW :1000kW × × 50 50 units units Total Total 110MW 110MW 150 150 units units
MPS MPS Los Los Angeles Angeles Office Office (Wind Business Group) (Wind Business Group)
VienTek,Mexico VienTek,Mexico (Blade (Blade Factory) Factory)
Undisclosed Undisclosed Project Project A A : : 1000kW 1000kW xx 38 38 units units Project B : 1000kW x 90 units Project B : 1000kW x 90 units Project :: 1000kW Project C C 1000kW xx 45 45 units units Project :: 1000kW Project D D 1000kW xx 135units 135units Project :: 1000kW Project EE 1000kW xx 160units 160units Project F : 1000kW x Project F : 1000kW x 250units 250units Project :: 1000kW Project G G 1000kW xx 80units 80units Total Total 798MW 798MW 798units 798units
Iowa Iowa Area Area Iowa :: 1000kW Iowa 1000kW xx 50 50 units units Total 50MW 50units Total 50MW 50units
Texas/New Texas/New Mexico/Arizona Mexico/Arizona Area Area White White Deer : Deer : 1000kW 1000kW xx 80 80 units units Brazos : 1000kW x 160 Brazos : 1000kW x 160 units units Caprock : 1000kW x 80 units Caprock : 1000kW x 80 units San San Juan Juan Mesa Mesa :: 1000kW 1000kW xx 120units 120units Steel :1000kW Steel Park Park :1000kW xx 15units 15units Total 455MW 455units Total 455MW 455units
MPS MPS HeadQuarter HeadQuarter (Orlando,Florida (Orlando,Florida))
Red color: MWT62/1.0 All copyright and intellectual property regarding this material belong to Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd.
25. Mitsubishi Wind Turbines in the U.S. California ‒ Mojave, MWT-250 x 300 unit 1990∼
Dia. 28m x T.Height 30m
California ‒ Oasis MWT-57 60 Units
Texas - Brazos MWT-62 160 Units
Operations in Dec. ‘04
Operated began Dec. ‘03
Rotor Diameter: Tower Height:
57meters 69meters
Rotor Diameter: Tower Height:
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61.4meters 69/60meters
26. Development of Offshore Wind Turbines ・ Installation of offshore wind turbines is expected to grow to take advantage of favorable wind conditions. Fundamental technologies are under development in Japan and abroad. ・ MHI is the only group in the world that engages in both the wind turbine and shipbuilding (marine structure) businesses. MHI will leverage its overall technological capabilities to deliver world-class offshore wind turbines. Offshore wind turbines in Europe (mounted on towers driven into the ocean floor)
Example of offshore wind turbines mounted on a floating platform (Tokyo University)
Source http://www.middelgrunden.dk All copyright and intellectual property regarding this material belong to Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd.
Coastal area [Mounted on a floating platform]
27. Solar Cells - Business Environment Market share by manufacturer Global market
O ther 28% Shell Solar 2%
6,000 Japan
Production (MW/Year) 生産量(MW/年)
5,000
Europe
Forecast of global demand for solar cells Source:Solar Generation III by European Photovoltaic Industry Greenpeace
Association
(EPIA)/
Projection as of Dec 31, 2005
Q -C ells 9%
Isofoton 3% Motech 3%
Sanyo 7% SchottMitsubishi Solar Electric 6% 5%
Suntech 5%
North America
4,000 3,000
Sharp 24%
Kyoce ra 8%
Other Production and shipment (Actual)
Market share by type Ribbon-Si CdTe 3%
2,000
1,759
Monocrystalline a-Si 7%
a-Si 4%
2%
CIS 0%
1 ,1 9 5
1,000
562
744 Monocrystalline Si 28%
0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Polycrystalline Si
56%
As of 2005, MHI ranked 20th in the global solar cell market. MHI will increase production to join the world’s top 5 companies by 2010 as a leading thin-film solar cell maker.
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28. MHI’s Production Capacity and Sales Outlook
Global market size 世界市場規模
350
(Ratio(当社生産量比率) of production by MHI)
(MW/Year)
生産能力/購入希望量(MW/年)
Production capacity / Customers’ demand
Volumes of purchase by existing MHI customers are expected to increase sharply. These customers have requested MHI to increase supply volumes rapidly and significantly. 1,900
2,500
3,400
4,600
5,600
(0.7%)
(2.1%)
(2.7%)
(3.5%)
(4.6%)
Production 増設予定 increase (plan)
300 250
Microcrystalline
微結晶微結晶
200
Customer demand 顧客購入希望量
Amorphous
150
アモルアモルファス ファス
100
当社生産実績・予定量 (actual/forecast) by
Production MHI
50 0
0.4 H14 2002
3.6 H15 2003
52 7 H16 2004
23
12
14
H17 2005
H18 2006
H19 2007
H20 2008
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H21 2009
H22 2010
29. Trends in Production and Cost Module cost is expected to decrease sharply as production increases. Production [ MW/Year ]
Module cost
300
50%
200 Production
100 0 2004
2006
2008
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2010
Module cost [ % ]
100%
400
0% 2012 Year
30. Comparison of Solar Cells 結晶型 Crystalline
アモルファス型 Amorphous 光 白板ガラス Glass Transparent Sunlight 透明電極(+) substrate electrode
Sunlight 光
白板強化 Glass ガラス substrate
Electrode Ag電極
200μm
Back P p型Si type Al裏面 N type Texture n型Si テクスチャー Si electrode 電極(+) Si (Ag) Back sheet バックシート
3.5μm 0.3μm 2μm
1.5μm 0.3μm
EVA 反射 AR coating 防止膜
Transparent Sunlight 光 白板ガラス Glass substrate
electrode (+) 透明電極(+)
(+)
(Ag) (−)
Cross Section 断面構造
微結晶タンデム型 Tandem
EVA Back Ag裏面
EVA
Back sheet バックシート
バックシート Back sheet
Ag裏面 Back 電極(−) electrode(Ag)
電極(−) electrode (Ag)
p i n
アモルファストップ電池 Amorphous top cell (0.3μm) Microcrystalline bottom 微結晶ボトム電池 cell (2μm)
p i n
0.3μm
(同一生産量ベース)
コスト Cost ratio
100%
90%
80%
セル効率 Cell efficiency
14∼17%
7∼8%
11∼12%
Annual Power 年間発電量 Generation
(温度係数) (Thermal Coefficient)
Volume of シリコン使用量 silicon & Cost とコスト
200μm
100%
110%
105%
(-0.4%/℃)
(-0.2%/℃)
(-0.3%/℃)
100%
2.4 year 2.4年
1年 1year
EPT: エネルギーペイバック タイム
EPT=
製造エネルギー Energy Annual Power 年間発電量 Generation
2.1 year 2.1年
0.3μm シリコン シリコン Cost Silicon film of silicon thickness 膜厚 コスト
EPT
19%
シリコン シリコン Cost Silicon film of silicon thickness 膜厚 コスト
2.5μm EPT
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シリコン Silicon film thickness 膜厚
22%
シリコン Cost ofコスト silicon
EPT
31. Road Map on Solar Cells for NEDO Microcrystalline tandem solar cells to replace crystalline solar cells Lowering system prices is key to diffusion of solar cells. Accordingly, mass production of solar cells using thin-film silicon technology or composites is attracting attention as a substitute for crystalline solar cells. In particular, MHI’s proprietary technologies (for production of high-speed, large-area films) are highly valued by NEDO and peers. 2002
2007
~ JPY 50/kWh
Crystalline solar cells
2010
2020
4.8GW 4.8GW
35GW 35GW
Lower cost of bulk crystalline silicon solar cells JPY 30/kWh Microcrystalline tandem Lower cost of thin film silicon solar cells by using large-area thin film production and other technologies. Power generation cost
2030 102GW 102GW
Thin-film (silicon, composite) solar cells to appear.
JPY 23/kWh
Achieve cost reduction through technological generation change. Higher performance achieved by ultrathin/multi-junction solar cells.
New materials, which are neither silicon nor composite, to appear.
JPY 14/kWh
Achieve further cost reduction through lowcost, high-quality production process and longer product life cycle
Year
Module efficiency (%)
Module efficiency(%)
15 10
Solar cells using new materials and new structures Source :NEDO "PV Roadmap 2030 (PV2030)"
Development of next-generation production technologies achieving high productivity and efficiency
15%
Development of 12% microcrystalline tandem solar cells
2004
2005
2006
2007
JPY 150 billion
JPY 7/kWh
<Development timetable for highly-productive thin film silicon solar cells>
20
Development investment (for 25 years starting 2005):
2008
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2009
18%
2010
Development of cell manufacturing technologies achieving high efficiency and productivity
32. Rendering of the New Plant A new plant for production of microcrystalline tandem solar modules with annual production of approx. 40MW to be constructed adjacent to the amorphous solar cell production plant (capex: approx. ¥10bn). New products to be launched in April 2007.
Rendering of the new plant for production of microcrystalline tandem solar modules (steel framed, two-story building with dimension of 150m(W)x50m(D)x15m(H)) All copyright and intellectual property regarding this material belong to Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd.
33. Production Facility for Microcrystalline Tandem Solar Cells The plasma CVD production line, the central part of a microcrystalline tandem solar cell production facility, has an efficient and compact structure based on MHI’s expertise in amorphous solar cells. Production Production facility facility for for microcrystalline microcrystalline tandem tandem solar solar cells cells (Full (Full view) view) Central transfer chamber
Film production chamber Unloading chamber
Unloader
Central transfer robot Loader
Load-lock chamber
Plasma CVD production line
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34. Technologies Differentiating MHI from Peers in Production of Thin-film Si Solar Cells Size Size of of substrate substrate
Film Film production production speed speed
[nm/s]
MHI:1.1m 1.4m
Efficiency Efficiency
[%]
2.0
12
1.0
11
Company B:0.56m×0.93m Company A: 0.46mx0.91m
MHI Comp- Company A any B
Productiv ity (cost)
∝
Size of substrate
Production speed
10
MHI Comp- Company A any B
Conversion efficiency
Operating Operating rate rate
[%]
Production line stopped
10 090 80 Cleaning Open Mainten 70 ance * 60 Operating Operating time time 50 w/ cleaning w/o cleaning Operating rate
Yield
MHI :100% Company A : 16% Company B : 6% based on same production yield per film production chamber
Large area・high speed・high quality Plasma CVD
Self cleaning
¾Peers: Placing too much focus on efficiency improvement (system development entrusted to equipment makers) ¾MHI: As an equipment maker, MHI works to improve the full scope of technologies for cost reduction. All copyright and intellectual property regarding this material belong to Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd.
(MHI’s proprietary technology)
35. Large Scale Solar Power Generation System
・Name of plant:Buttenwiesen PV Plant ,Germany ・Output:1,000kWp ・Number of panels: 10,000 (amorphous solar modules modules made by MHI) All copyright and intellectual property regarding this material belong to Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd.
36. Characteristics of MACH-30G ・Achieved world’s highest level electric efficiency and low NOx levels. ・High reliability (developed based on the KU30 series (over 400 units were ordered)) ・Seamless customer support package (from planning to maintenance and after service)
MACH-30G Main specifications /50Hz(in brackets:60Hz)
8MACH-30G
12MACH-30G
14MACH-30G
16MACH-30G
18MACH-30G
8
12
14
16
18
5,100 (4,900)
5,750 (5,500)
Number of cylinders
Cylinder bore ×piston stroke
mm
300×380
Number of revolutions
min-1
750(720)
Rated output (at power generation end)
kW
NOx
ppm
2,550 (2,450)
3,800 (3,650)
4,450 (4,250)
200 or less:converted to O2=0%
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Electric efficiency at generator end (%)
37. Efficiency of MACH-30G 60
MACH gas engine
50
Diesel 40
Conventional gas engine 30 20 10 0
10kW
100kW
1MW
Output All copyright and intellectual property regarding this material belong to Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd.
10MW
100MW
38. MACH-30G - Awards and Market Share Agency for Natural Resources and Energy (ANRE) Director-General‘s Prize
Japanese market share of gas engines (3.5∼7.5MW class)
of Japan (2002)
(FY2001(when MACH was launched) ∼FY2005) MACH-30G was awarded in the 23rd Energy Saving Machinery and Equipment Awards in the field of power generation engines for its high performance including significant improvement in efficiency and reduction in NOx/CO2/PM (Particulate matter) and other pollutants.
JGA’s Technical Award (2003) Awarded by the Japan Gas Association (JGA) for achieving high efficiency, high operating performance and high environmental performance in the area of gas fueled machinery and equipment.
MACH :720MW (80%)
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Others:190MW (20%)
39. MACH-30G - Orders Received 200
(MW)
(Units) (台)
886MW
Number of units (prospect) 台数(計画) 台数 Number of units (ordered) MW (prospect) MW(計画) MW MW
150
1,000
725MW
19
572MW 100
145
500
134
381MW 107 50
194MW 106MW
71
35
19 0
0 2001
2002
2003
2004
All copyright and intellectual property regarding this material belong to Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd.
2005
2006
40. Overview of MACH-30G (Example)
Customer: Sodegaura Power Station, Nippon Steel Corporation 18MACH-30G 10Units All copyright and intellectual property regarding this material belong to Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd.
41. IGCC (Integrated Coal Gasification Combined Cycle) Air Blown IGCC is the Best System for Power Generation 1. Features (1) More than 10% lower CO2 Emission Intensity than latest USC conventional coal fired plant by Higher Plant Efficiency with Air-blown IGCC (2) Fuel Flexibility for high moisture Low Rank Coal like PRB Coal. (3) Higher Reliability with Waterwall Structure based on mature boiler experiences (4) Much Experiences in Low calorific gas firing G/T
2. 250MW-class Demonstration Plant Gasifier HRSG
Gas Clean-up
Gasifier
HRSG
Operation Room
Operation Room
GT/ST
GT/ST
Clean Coal Power R&D Co., LTD.
Gas Clean-up
Operation starts in Sep. 2007
IGCC:Integrated coal Gasification Combined Cycle Power River Basin (PRB) coal: a low rank coal with higher moisture content and lower heating value, but available at low cost because of its plentiful reserves. All copyright and intellectual property regarding this material belong to Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd.
42. IGCC (Integrated Coal Gasification Combined Cycle) 3. IGCC projects in the U.S. EPACT (Energy Policy Act; signed in Aug 2005) set measures including subsidies, tax incentives for investments, etc. → Triggering IGCC projects across the U.S.
4. Commercial Plant Performance Unit
250MW Demo. Plant
Commercial Plant (60Hz)
MW
250
500
Design Coal
−
Bituminous Coal
Bituminous Coal
Gasifier
−
Air-blown Air-blown Dry coal feed Dry coal feed
Gas Clean-up
−
Wet Clean-up Wet Clean-up
Gas Turbine
−
M701DA
M501G
%,HHV
40.5
46
Emission SOx
ppm
8
8
(16%O2)
NOx
ppm
5
5
PM
mg/Nm3
4
4
Item Gross Output
Net Plant Efficiency
: IGCC projects being considered
Mitsubishi IGCC ready for Commercial plants in Japan and the U.S. All copyright and intellectual property regarding this material belong to Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd.
43. MHI’s Efforts to Develop Fuel Cells
SOFC(solid oxide fuel cells) NEDO technology development project (2004 - 2007)
Tubular type SOFC
Development of “Combined System” with levels of 200kW
Jointly developed with J-Power
Cogeneration system for Japan Pavilion
MOLB-type SOFC Jointly developed with Chubu Electric Power
Cogeneration system for Electric Power Pavilion
MOLB:MOno-Block Layer Built
Mid-sized dispersed type power sources; Replacement for large-sized thermal power generation
Project of experimental study in Aichi World Expo 2005 (March - September)
PEFC (polymer-electrolyte fuel cell) PEFC for mobile applications
PEFC for “Urashima”, deep sea cruising AUV developed by JAMSTEC As an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV), Urashima recorded the world’s longest continuous cruising of 317km in February 2005.
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JAMSTEC “URASHIMA”
44. SOFC Combined-Cycle Power Generation System Efficiency and Road Map IGFC 75 LHV %
Power Generation plant for Utility (output:several 100 MW) Efficiency: 70%-LHV
LNG SOFC C/C
Efficiency at power generation end
70
SOFC Combined-Cycle
Power Generation plant (output:several MW)
65 C/C (1700℃ class)
IGFC
Efficiency: 60%-LHV
60
+
LNG C/C 55
Combined-Cycle 200kW class
50
700℃ class Efficiency:50%-LHV USC (Efficiency with output of 350kW class: 55%-LHV
IGCC USC(coal)
45
40 1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020Year
IGCC: Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle IGFC: Integrated Gasification SOFC Combined Cycle
2005
2010
2015
USC: Ultra Super critical pressure Coal-fired plant
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2020Year
45. Road Map for Lithium Rechargeable Batteries Batteries for EV
For PEV 200 180 160 Energy density (Wh/kg)
EVs (fleet sales)
MHI stationaryFor EV batteries (Developed in 2005)
140 120 100 80MHI stationary batteries 60 40
For PHEV
(Developed in 1998) MHI batteries for mobile applications Data of batteries (Developed in 2001) developed by peers
20 0 0
500
1000
1500
Power density
Cell batteries for EVs
Module batteries for EVs
2000
2500 For HEV
(W/kg)
Phases of development Raise performance of batteries
・Reduce cost ・Develop mass production technology
Pre-mass-production
Full-scale mass production
Stationary batteries
Stationary module batteries Power storage system Stationary battery cells
Unit w/100kWh
Electricity storage business; R&D on use of natural energies
2006
2007
2008
2009
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System ensuring stable supply of natural energies
46. Estimation of Fuel Cell Prices Test production facilities (current facilities) Production capacity:For approx. 60 EVs/year
Fuel cell prices (in relative values)
1
Pre-mass-production facilities Production capacity:For approx. 2,000 EVs/year
1/10
Reduce production cost; reduce materials cost Full-scale mass production facilities Production capacity:For 16,000 EVs/year
Initial-phase mass production facilities Production capacity:For approx. 8,000 EVs/year
1/20
0
Reduce materials cost
100 125 25 50 75 Fuel cell production (in 10,000 units / year)
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150
175
47. Future of Power Generation
Ultra – Supercritical Pressure Power Plant
Secondary Battery
Solar Power Generation
GT C/C
Hotel,Office etc…
Home
Substation Facilities
Transmission Plant
Substation Facilities
Integrated coal Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC)
Secondary Transportation System Battery (Train etc…)
Secondary Battery Integrated coal Gasification Fuel Cell combined cycle (IGFC)
Secondary Battery
Wind Power Generation
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Batery Car