Development of a national strategy for adaptation to climate change adverse impacts in Cyprus

CYPADAPT LIFE10 ENV/CY/000723

Projection of climate change in Cyprus with the use of selected regional climate models DELIVERABLE 3.2

Authors: Christos Giannakopoulos, Mike Petrakis, Theodora Kopania, Giannis Lemesios, Nikos Roukounakis National Observatory of Athens, Greece

2012

Projection of climate change in Cyprus with the use of selected regional climate models

2012

Acknowledgements This report was produced under co-finance of the European financial instrument for the Environment (LIFE+) as the second Deliverable of the third Action (Deliverable 3.2) of the project “CYPADAPT” (LIFE10ENV/CY/000723) during the implementation of Activity 3(b) on the “Projection of climate change in Cyprus with the use of selected regional climate models”. The CYPADAPT team would like to acknowledge the European financial instrument for the Environment (LIFE+) for the financial support.

Disclaimer The information included herein is legal and true to the best possible knowledge of the authors, as it is the product of the utilization and synthesis of the referenced sources, for which the authors cannot be held accountable.

December 2012

Projection of climate change in Cyprus with the use of selected regional climate models

2012

Contents Contents .......................................................................................................................... i List of Figures ................................................................................................................ iii List of Tables ................................................................................................................ vii Executive summary ........................................................................................................ 1 1.

Introduction ............................................................................................................ 3

2.

Climate of the Recent Past ..................................................................................... 6 2.1.

2.1.1.

Annual Temperatures ........................................................................................ 6

2.1.2.

Seasonal Temperatures ..................................................................................... 8

2.1.3.

Annual Precipitation ........................................................................................ 14

2.1.4.

Seasonal Precipitation ..................................................................................... 14

2.1.5.

Relative Humidity ............................................................................................ 18

2.1.6.

Wind ................................................................................................................ 18

2.1.7.

Sunshine Duration ........................................................................................... 22

2.1.8.

Overview of Mean Parameters........................................................................ 26

2.2.

3.

Annual and Seasonal Meteorological Parameters .................................................... 6

Indices of Climate Extremes .................................................................................... 30

2.2.1.

Extremes of Maximum Temperature .............................................................. 31

2.2.2.

Extremes of Minimum Temperature ............................................................... 36

2.2.3.

Extremes of Precipitation ................................................................................ 36

2.2.4.

Wind events ..................................................................................................... 44

2.2.5.

Overview of Extreme Indices ........................................................................... 44

Climate Projections............................................................................................... 46 3.1.

General Conditions .................................................................................................. 46

3.1.1.

Changes in Annual Temperatures ................................................................... 46

3.1.2.

Changes in Seasonal Temperatures ................................................................ 48

3.1.3.

Changes in Annual Precipitation...................................................................... 52

3.1.4.

Changes in Seasonal Precipitation................................................................... 56

3.1.5.

Changes in Relative Humidity .......................................................................... 60

3.1.6.

Changes in Wind .............................................................................................. 60

3.1.7.

Changes in Sunshine Duration ......................................................................... 64

3.1.8.

Overview of changes in mean Parameters ...................................................... 68

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Projection of climate change in Cyprus with the use of selected regional climate models 3.2.

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5.

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Indices of Climate Extremes .................................................................................... 71

3.2.1.

Changes in Extremes of Maximum Temperature ............................................ 71

3.2.2.

Changes in Extremes of Minimum Temperature ............................................ 76

3.2.3.

Changes in Extremes of Precipitation.............................................................. 76

3.2.4.

Changes in Extremes of Wind .......................................................................... 83

3.2.5.

Overview of Changes in Extreme Indices ........................................................ 83

Climate Time Series .............................................................................................. 86 4.1.

Time Series of Mean Annual Maximum Temperature ............................................ 86

4.2.

Time Series of Mean Annual Minimum Temperature ............................................. 86

4.3.

Time Series of Mean Annual Precipitation .............................................................. 94

Conclusions ........................................................................................................... 99

References .................................................................................................................. 102

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List of Figures Figure 1-1: Map of Cyprus, indicating the main and most important locations mentioned in this report, as well as the geographical location of the stations of the Cyprus Meteorological Service (blue marks). ................................................................................................................. 3 Figure 2-1: Average annual maximum temperature for the years 1961-1990 (control period). ................................................................................................................................................... 7 Figure 2-2: Average annual minimum temperature for the years 1961-1990 (control period). ................................................................................................................................................... 7 Figure 2-3: Average winter (DJF) maximum temperature for the years 1961-1990 (control period). ...................................................................................................................................... 9 Figure 2-4: Average spring (MAM) maximum temperature for the years 1961-1990 (control period). ...................................................................................................................................... 9 Figure 2-5: Average summer (JJA) maximum temperature for the years 1961-1990 (control period). .................................................................................................................................... 10 Figure 2-6: Average autumn (SON) maximum temperature for the years 1961-1990 (control period). .................................................................................................................................... 10 Figure 2-7: Average winter (DJF) minimum temperature for the years 1961-1990 (control period). .................................................................................................................................... 12 Figure 2-8: Average spring (MAM) minimum temperature for the years 1961-1990 (control period). .................................................................................................................................... 12 Figure 2-9: Average summer (JJA) minimum temperature for the years 1961-1990 (control period). .................................................................................................................................... 13 Figure 2-10: Average autumn (SON) minimum temperature for the years 1961-1990 (control period). .................................................................................................................................... 13 Figure 2-11: Annual total precipitation for the years 1961-1990 (control period). ................ 15 Figure 2-12: Winter total precipitation for the years 1961-1990 (control period). ................ 16 Figure 2-13: Spring total precipitation for the years 1961-1990 (control period). ................. 16 Figure 2-14: Summer total precipitation for the years 1961-1990 (control period). .............. 17 Figure 2-15: Autumn total precipitation for the years 1961-1990 (control period). .............. 17 Figure 2-16: Annual average relative humidity for the years 1961-1990 (control period). .... 19 Figure 2-17: Number of days with RH>80% for the years 1961-1990 (control period). ......... 19 Figure 2-18: Annual mean wind speed for the years 1961-1990 (control period).................. 20 Figure 2-19: Summer mean wind speed for the years 1961-1990 (control period). .............. 20 Figure 2-20: Highest mean wind speed for the years 1961-1990 (control period). ................ 21 Figure 2-21: Mean annual sunshine duration for the years 1961-1990 (control period). ...... 23 Figure 2-22: Mean winter sunshine duration for the years 1961-1990 (control period)........ 24 Figure 2-23: Mean spring sunshine duration for the years 1961-1990 (control period). ....... 24 Figure 2-24: Mean summer sunshine duration for the years 1961-1990 (control period). .... 25 Figure 2-25: Mean autumn sunshine duration for the years 1961-1990 (control period). .... 25 Figure 2-26: Annual maximum TX for the years 1961-1990 (control period). ........................ 32 Figure 2-27: Annual minimum TX for the years 1961-1990 (control period). ......................... 32 Figure 2-28: Number of summer days (TX>25oC) for the years 1961-1990 (control period).. 33 Figure 2-29: Number of hot days (TX>30oC) for the years 1961-1990 (control period). ........ 33

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Figure 2-30: Number of heat wave days (TX>35oC) for the years 1961-1990 (control period). ................................................................................................................................................. 34 Figure 2-31: Number of frost nights (TN20oC) for the years 1961-1990 (control period).37 Figure 2-33: Annual maximum total precipitation over 1 day for the years 1961-1990 (control period). .................................................................................................................................... 40 Figure 2-34: Annual maximum total precipitation over 3 days for the years 1961-1990 (control period). ...................................................................................................................... 40 Figure 2-35: Number of dry days (RR0.5mm) for the years 1961-1990 (control period)..... 41 Figure 2-37: Number of very wet days (RR>10mm) for the years 1961-1990 (control period). ................................................................................................................................................. 42 Figure 2-38: Number of extremely wet days (RR>20mm) for the years 1961-1990 (control period). .................................................................................................................................... 42 Figure 2-39: Maximum length of dry spell (RR 5 m/s for the years 1961-1990 (control period). .................................................................................................................................... 43 Figure 3-1: Changes in average annual maximum temperature between the future (20212050) and the control period (1961-1990).............................................................................. 47 Figure 3-2: Changes in average annual minimum temperature between the future (20212050) and the control period (1961-1990).............................................................................. 47 Figure 3-3: Changes in average winter (DJF) maximum temperature between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990). .................................................................. 49 Figure 3-4: Changes in average spring (MAM) maximum temperature between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990). .................................................................. 49 Figure 3-5: Changes in average summer (JJA) maximum temperature between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990). .................................................................. 50 Figure 3-6: Changes in average autumn (SON) maximum temperature between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990). .................................................................. 50 Figure 3-7: Changes in average winter (DJF) minimum temperature between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990). .................................................................. 53 Figure 3-8: Changes in average spring (MAM) minimum temperature between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990). .................................................................. 53 Figure 3-9: Changes in average summer (JJA) minimum temperature between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990). .................................................................. 54 Figure 3-10: Changes in average autumn (SON) minimum temperature between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990). .................................................................. 54 Figure 3-11: Changes in annual total precipitation between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990). .................................................................................................... 55 Figure 3-12: Changes in winter total precipitation between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990). .................................................................................................... 58 Figure 3-13: Changes in spring total precipitation between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990). .................................................................................................... 58

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Figure 3-14: Changes in summer total precipitation between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990). .................................................................................................... 59 Figure 3-15: Changes in autumn total precipitation between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990). .................................................................................................... 59 Figure 3-16: Changes in annual average relative humidity between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990). ....................................................................................... 61 Figure 3-17: Changes in the number of days with RH>80% between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990). ....................................................................................... 61 Figure 3-18: Changes in annual mean wind speed between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990). .................................................................................................... 62 Figure 3-19: Changes in summer mean wind speed between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990). .................................................................................................... 62 Figure 3-20: Changes in highest mean wind speed between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990). .................................................................................................... 63 Figure 3-21: Changes in mean annual sunshine duration between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990). .............................................................................................. 65 Figure 3-22: Changes in mean winter sunshine duration between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990). .............................................................................................. 66 Figure 3-23: Changes in mean spring sunshine duration between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990). .............................................................................................. 66 Figure 3-24: Changes in mean summer sunshine duration between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990). ....................................................................................... 67 Figure 3-25: Changes in mean autumn sunshine duration between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990). ....................................................................................... 67 Figure 3-26: Changes in annual maximum TX between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990). .................................................................................................... 73 Figure 3-27: Changes in annual minimum TX between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990).................................................................................................................. 73 Figure 3-28: Changes in the number of summer days (TX>25oC) between the future (20212050) and the control period (1961-1990).............................................................................. 74 Figure 3-29: Changes in the number of hot days (TX>30oC) between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990). ....................................................................................... 74 Figure 3-30: Changes in the number of heat wave days (TX>35oC) between the future (20212050) and the control period (1961-1990).............................................................................. 75 Figure 3-31: Changes in the number of frost nights (TN20oC) between the future (20212050) and the control period (1961-1990).............................................................................. 77 Figure 3-33: Changes in annual maximum total precipitation over 1 day between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990). .................................................................. 79 Figure 3-34: Changes in annual maximum total precipitation over 3 days between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990). .................................................................. 79 Figure 3-35: Changes in the number of dry days (RR0.5mm) between the future (20212050) and the control period (1961-1990).............................................................................. 80 Figure 3-37: Changes in the number of very wet days (RR>10mm) between the future (20212050) and the control period (1961-1990).............................................................................. 81 Figure 3-38: Changes in the number of extremely wet days (RR>20mm) between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990). .................................................................. 81 Figure 3-39: Changes in maximum length of dry spell (RR 5m/s between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990). ....................................................... 82 Figure 4-1: Time series of mean annual maximum temperature, as derived from RCMs and observation data, in 3 coastal cities of Cyprus (Larnaca, Limassol, and Paphos).................... 87 Figure 4-2: Time series of mean annual maximum temperature, as derived from RCMs and observation data, in 2 continental lowland cities of Cyprus (Nicosia and Lefkara). ............... 88 Figure 4-3: Time series of mean annual maximum temperature, as derived from RCMs and observation data, in 3 semi-mountainous areas of Cyprus (Stavros, Panagia, and Saittas). .. 89 Figure 4-4: Time series of mean annual maximum temperature, as derived from RCMs and observation data, in 2 mountainous areas of Cyprus (Amiantos and Prodromos). ................ 90 Figure 4-5: Time series of mean annual minimum temperature, as derived from RCMs and observation data, in 3 coastal cities of Cyprus (Larnaca, Limassol, and Paphos).................... 91 Figure 4-6: Time series of mean annual minimum temperature, as derived from RCMs and observation data, in 2 continental lowland cities of Cyprus (Nicosia and Lefkara). ............... 92 Figure 4-7: Time series of mean annual minimum temperature, as derived from RCMs and observation data, in 3 semi-mountainous areas of Cyprus (Stavros, Panagia, and Saittas). .. 93 Figure 4-8: Time series of mean annual minimum temperature, as derived from RCMs and observation data, in 2 mountainous areas of Cyprus (Amiantos and Prodromos). ................ 94 Figure 4-9: Time series of mean annual precipitation, as derived from RCMs and observation data, in 3 coastal cities of Cyprus (Larnaca, Limassol, and Paphos). ....................................... 95 Figure 4-10: Time series of mean annual precipitation, as derived from RCMs and observation data, in 2 continental lowland cities of Cyprus (Nicosia and Lefkara). ............... 96 Figure 4-11: Time series of mean annual precipitation, as derived from RCMs and observation data, in 3 semi-mountainous areas of Cyprus (Stavros, Panagia, and Saittas). .. 97 Figure 4-12: Time series of mean annual precipitation, as derived from RCMs and observation data, in 2 mountainous areas of Cyprus (Amiantos and Prodromos). ................ 98

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List of Tables Table 2-1: Meteorological parameters in Cyprus averaged over the control period (1961– 1990)........................................................................................................................................ 28 Table 2-2: The indices of climate extremes and their definitions, calculated for the control period 1961-1990. ................................................................................................................... 30 Table 2-3: Indices of extremes in Cyprus, referring to the number of days per year (temperature degrees in case of TXx and TXn, precipitation amount in case of RX1day and RX3day), averaged over the control period (1961–1990). ...................................................... 45 Table 3-1: Changes in meteorological parameters in Cyprus, between control period (19611990) and near future period (2021-2050). ............................................................................ 69 Table 3-2: Changes in indices of extremes in Cyprus, referring to the difference of the average number of days per year (temperature degrees in case of TXx and TXn, precipitation amount in case of RX1day and RX3day) between control period (1961-1990) and near future period (2021-2050).................................................................................................................. 84

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Projection of climate change in Cyprus with the use of selected regional climate models

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Executive summary This report examines the potential future climate changes in Cyprus using projections derived by several Regional Climate Models (RCM) simulations. Firstly, the reference values of various climatic parameters in Cyprus during the period 1960-1990 (control period) are presented. Subsequently, the changes between the future period 2021-2050 and the control period 1961-1990 are calculated. The future period 2021-2050 has been chosen specifically for the needs of stakeholders and policy makers to assist their planning in the near future, instead of the end of the twenty-first century as frequently used in other climate impact studies. For the evaluation of near future climate conditions in Cyprus, PRECIS RCM has been employed as the main climate model. Except for PRECIS, six additional RCMs of the ENSEMBLES project have also been used namely KNMI, METNO, CNRM, METO, C4I and MPI. The results of six models were used as an ensemble mean for testing and comparing the respective results of PRECIS. All simulations concerning future predictions of climate change in Cyprus are driven by the A1B emission scenario of the IPCC which provides a good midline scenario for carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth. In the control period it is shown that the average maximum temperature range is 10-16°C in winter and 25-35°C in summer. The summertime maximum temperature in coastal regions is about 33°C, while further inland often exceeds 40°C. The annual total precipitation ranges from 190-300mm in the central part of Cyprus (from the north and the south) to 450630mm in the western part of the country. Regarding relative humidity (RH), average annual RH varies between 60-70% while the number of days with RH>80% ranges from 65 days in inland, southern and eastern coastal areas to 110 days in western and high elevation areas. Regarding wind, annual mean wind speed is about 3.5-4.0m/s while the highest mean wind speed varies from 7 m/s in inland to 11 m/s in the remaining regions. As concerns sunshine duration, mean annual sunshine duration during control period reaches 3500-3600 hrs. In the period 2021-2050, a continual, gradual and relatively strong warming of about 1.0 to 2.0°C is projected compared to the 1961-1990 reference period. In summer, the increase of maximum temperature will exceed 2.5°C. Maximum and minimum seasonal temperatures appear to increase most in the continental part of Cyprus, i.e. the lowland areas around Nicosia as well as in the western higher elevation part. Hot summer conditions that rarely occurred in the reference period may become the norm by the middle of the 21st century. Cyprus projected precipitation changes are quite variable among models. Winter drying will be modest in PRECIS with precipitation decreasing by 5-15mm but larger in the ENSEMBLEs model mean with precipitation decreases reaching 50mm in higher elevation areas. Throughout the year, Cyprus will not be affected by large changes according to PRECIS but according to the ENSEMBLES model mean reductions in precipitation may reach 60mm in southern coastal areas and 80 mm at higher elevation sires. In addition, models show that the relative humidity will decrease in the near future, except from the coastal areas of Cyprus where increases of relative humidity are expected (with an associated increase of

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Projection of climate change in Cyprus with the use of selected regional climate models

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heat stress). Regarding wind parameters, slight decreases are expected while a general increase of mean annual and seasonal sunshine duration is evident. As far as climate extremes are concerned, during the reference period, the annual maximum temperature reaches 38°C and 40°C in high elevation and continental areas respectively, while heatwave days (maximum temperature higher than 35°C) reaches 40o in inland areas (Nicosia District) and 15-25o in southern and eastern coastal areas as well as mountain regions. Also, tropical nights (minimum temperature during the night higher than 20°C) vary from 100-130 per year in western, southern and coastal areas to 90 and 45 in continental and mountain regions respectively. Regarding precipitation extremes, present-day climate indicates that dry days are about 250-300 per year, while the length of dry spell reaches 100 consecutive days almost throughout the domain of study. Projections of future changes regarding climate extremes reveal increases in annual maximum temperature which may reach 2.4-2.6°C in continental and mountain areas and 2.0°C in coastal areas. Also, one additional month with maximum temperature higher than 35°C is expected in inland and mountain regions. Similar increases are also anticipated for tropical nights to the whole study domain. Concerning precipitation extremes, an increase of about 8-10 days is expected in dry days as well as in the length of dry spell. Finally, pronounced warming and precipitation reductions are also detected from time series of temperature and precipitation parameters, regarding 10 representative locations of Cyprus during the period 1951-2100. Deviations between model and observed data are detected in locations with particularly complex topography, which are often not well represented by models. Specifically, it appears that all models data demonstrate a quite narrow spread and a good conformity with the observed values, as derived by the time series of mean annual maximum and minimum temperatures. Larger deviations are noted in the time series of mean annual precipitation, where CNRM and C4I models follow quite well the observed data.

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Projection of climate change in Cyprus with the use of selected regional climate models

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1. Introduction Climate in Cyprus is generally characterized by mild rainy winters, occasional droughts, and long, hot and dry summers. Recent studies on present and future climate have shown that the country is among the most vulnerable regions to climate change, as it is expected to be relatively strongly affected by the projected warming and related changes (Christensen et al. 2007) due to man-made forcing by increased greenhouse gases (GHG) (Hegerl et al. 2007). Therefore, Cyprus is likely to face increases in the frequency and intensity of droughts and hot weather conditions in the near future. Since the region is diverse and extreme climate conditions already common, the impacts may be disproportional. Gradients and contrasts are characteristic for Cyprus, not only in climatic conditions, but also in social and economic aspects, access to natural resources, as well as cultural and religious traditions. This diversity is a regional attribute, but can also be associated with political tensions. Since the region is a primary climate change “hot spot”, there is concern about the future state of the environment and societal consequences (Giorgi 2006; IPCC 2007). In this report, two time periods, namely the control period (1961-1990) and the future period (2021-2050), are examined, using output data from regional climate model (RCM) simulations driven by the IPCC SRES medium emissions A1B scenario. The geographic areas on which the report focuses are indicated in Figure 1-1, which also presents the location of 10 meteorological stations of the Cyprus Meteorological Service.

Figure 1-1: Map of Cyprus, indicating the main and most important locations mentioned in this report, as well as the geographical location of the stations of the Cyprus Meteorological Service (blue marks).

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Projection of climate change in Cyprus with the use of selected regional climate models

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Specifically, the main model used in this report is the PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies) regional climate model, based on the United Kingdom (UK) Meteorological Office Hadley Centre HadRM3P model (Jones et al. 1995, 2004). The model simulations were performed by the Cyprus Institute within the framework of the CIMME project (www.cyi.ac.cy/climatechangemetastudy), which studied ‘Climate Change and Impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East’. In PRECIS simulations Cyprus lies at the centre of the study domain. PRECIS is compared with an integrated set of model simulations, also developed to reproduce climate conditions and future climate changes for Europe. In these simulations, Cyprus is placed in the south-eastern part of the domain. The mean of these models, hereafter called “ENSEMBLE model mean”, is derived from 6 high resolution RCMs run to the year 2050, while 3 of them extend up to 2100:  The ‘KNMI’ model, provided by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, widely known as KNMI, Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut (Lenderink et al. 2003; van den Hurk et al. 2006)  The ‘METNO’ model, developed in the Norwegian Meteorological Institute (Christensen et al. 1996; Haugen and Haakenstad 2006)  The ‘CNRM’ model, developed at Météo-France CNRM, Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (Déqué and Somot 2007; Radu et al. 2008)  The ‘METO’ model, produced in the UK Met Office (Collins et al. 2006)  The ‘C4I’ model, provided by the Community Climate Change Consortium for Ireland (Kjellström et al. 2005; Jones et al. 2004)  The ‘MPI’ model, developed in the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPIM), Hamburg, Germany (Jacob 2001; Jacob et al. 2001). The main purpose of the study is to present a comprehensive regional climate assessment in Cyprus, using PRECIS and ENSEMBLE model mean output data and providing climate change projections and indices of climate extremes. The analysis of the data incorporates: (1) spatial distribution using maps of the distribution of the parameters of interest to illustrate the spatial variability of changes in mean and indices of climate extremes; and (2) data visualization tools, such as summary tables and time series plots, to visualize differences, trends and temporal variability in the compared datasets. In Chapter 2, the climatology of the recent past (1961-1990) is analyzed using all the regional climate models mentioned above for temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind, and sunshine duration parameters as well as derived indices of extremes. The analysis is carried out for several climate indices of extremes, appropriate for monitoring impacts on a number of sectors. A comparison is implemented between output data from PRECIS and the ENSEMBLE model mean outputs. Chapter 3 presents projections of climate change for the future period 2021-2050, based on the intermediate A1B scenario of the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Nakićenović and Swart 2000). Projections are based again on the output of PRECIS and the ENSEMBLE model mean. The future period 2021-2050 has been chosen specifically for the needs of stakeholders and policy makers to

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assist their planning in the near future, instead of the end of the twenty-first century as frequently used in other climate impact studies. In Chapter 4, time series plots of temperature and precipitation parameters are presented for various selected sites in Cyprus derived from the 7 regional climate models PRECIS, KNMI, METNO, CNRM, METO, C4I, and MPI, for the entire period 1951-2100. Observational data up to 2010 are also overplotted for comparison with the model results. Chapter 5 presents the conclusions of the report.

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2. Climate of the Recent Past This chapter presents various meteorological parameters in Cyprus in the recent past, for the period 1961-1990 (control years). Climate extremes through specific indices, such as hot or heat wave days, frost nights, dry or wet days and dry spells, are also examined for the same period. As mentioned before, a comparison is implemented between PRECIS model and ENSEMBLE model mean, the latter derived from the six models KNMI, METNO, CNRM, METO, C4I, and MPI. However, in the case of sunshine duration, KNMI model is used instead of PRECIS and the ENSEMBLE model mean represents the average of only METNO and C4I models since the other models did not include this parameter in their simulations.

2.1. Annual and Seasonal Meteorological Parameters 2.1.1. Annual Temperatures The 1961-1990 average annual maximum and minimum temperatures patterns illustrate the general range of temperature variations and temperature differences throughout Cyprus regions in the recent past. PRECIS model in Figure 2-1a shows that the average annual maximum temperature (TX) ranges from about 20-21°C in higher elevation areas to about 25°C in lowland and continental areas. All coastal parts of Cyprus have notable different temperature conditions with an average annual TX ranging from 20°C in northeastern and northwestern coastal areas, to about 24°C in southeastern coastal areas. According to the ENSEMBLE model mean (Figure 2-1b), the lowest average annual maximum temperature (20°C) occurs in higher elevation areas. The average annual TX is higher in lowland and continental areas, reaching 25°C in Nicosia. The eastern and western coasts of the country have similar temperature conditions, while the average annual TX is about 24°C not only in Larnaca but also in Kyrenia (Girne) at the northern coast. Compared with PRECIS, the ENSEMBLE model mean gives higher values of average annual TX in continental lowland and coastal areas and lower values in higher elevation regions, sometimes providing sharper gradients. This means that the TX difference between higher elevation and lowland areas is larger. Regarding the average annual minimum temperature (TN), PRECIS shows a range from about 10°C in higher elevation areas to about 20°C in coastal areas (Figure 2-2a). A temperature difference is also apparent between the warmer eastern coastal areas and the cooler western ones, the latter affected by the adjacent higher elevation regions. In Figure 2-2b, the ENSEMBLE model mean generally agrees with PRECIS, although lower temperatures are noted everywhere (e.g. in higher elevation areas, the average annual TN appears to be about 9-10°C).

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Projection of climate change in Cyprus with the use of selected regional climate models

a.

b.

PRECIS model

ENSEMBLE model mean

Figure 2-1: Average annual maximum temperature for the years 1961-1990 (control period).

a.

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PRECIS model

ENSEMBLE model mean

Figure 2-2: Average annual minimum temperature for the years 1961-1990 (control period).

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Projection of climate change in Cyprus with the use of selected regional climate models

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2.1.2. Seasonal Temperatures The contrast between the eastern and the western, as well as the coastal and the continental, Cyprus climate conditions is most evident from the seasonal maximum temperature (TX) patterns (Figures 2-3 to 2-6). During winter, December to February (DJF), the average maximum temperature in the western continental areas is about 12-13°C, while in the east it reaches 16°C (Figure 2-3a). In relation to PRECIS, the ENSEMBLE model mean appears to be 1-2°C colder in the higher elevation area of Troodos and slightly warmer in the eastern coastal areas (Figure 2-3b). The spring season, defined as the period between March and May (MAM), is characterized by an average TX of 17°C in the northern and northeastern coastal areas and 23°C in the lowlands and especially in the area around Nicosia (Figure 2-4a). In this case, the ENSEMBLE model mean pattern in Figure 2-4b seems to be warmer everywhere, except from the western higher elevation region where it exhibits cooler patterns. The warm summers in Cyprus are illustrated by the PRECIS average maximum temperature patterns for June-August (JJA) in Figure 2-5a, showing that summer TX approximates 25-26°C at the northern and western coasts (near Paphos), as well as in two southern regions, i.e. Limassol Salt Lake and the touristic area of Ayia Napa. Very hot summer conditions, with average summer TX reaching 35°C, appear in the lowland continental area around Nicosia and in the eastern part of Troodos mountains. Figure 2-5b confirms that the ENSEMBLE model mean generally agrees with PRECIS, but shows a smaller TX range, giving smaller gradients than those in Figure 2-5a. Autumn average TX, regarding the period September-November (SON), is presented in Figure 2-6. According to PRECIS model (Figure 2-6a), the lowest average autumn maximum temperatures occur in the northeastern peninsula of Karpasia (22°C) and in the northwestern area (22.5-23°C). Apparently, the continental region around the capital city of Nicosia remains the warmest place during autumn. In agreement with PRECIS, the ENSEMBLE model mean pattern in Figure 2-6b shows that the highest autumn temperatures, up to 26°C, occur around Nicosia. On the other hand, Troodos seems to be colder than the northern coastal areas, with an average TX of about 21°C.

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Projection of climate change in Cyprus with the use of selected regional climate models

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ENSEMBLE model mean

Figure 2-3: Average winter (DJF) maximum temperature for the years 1961-1990 (control period).

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2012

PRECIS model

ENSEMBLE model mean

Figure 2-4: Average spring (MAM) maximum temperature for the years 1961-1990 (control period).

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Projection of climate change in Cyprus with the use of selected regional climate models

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ENSEMBLE model mean

Figure 2-5: Average summer (JJA) maximum temperature for the years 1961-1990 (control period).

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2012

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ENSEMBLE model mean

Figure 2-6: Average autumn (SON) maximum temperature for the years 1961-1990 (control period).

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Projection of climate change in Cyprus with the use of selected regional climate models

2012

The seasonal minimum temperature (TN) patterns in Figures 2-7 to 2-10 also provide important information about temperature conditions in Cyprus. Figure 2-7a presents average minimum temperature (TN) during winter (DJF) for the control period 1961-1990, as provided by PRECIS. The contrast between the coastal and the continental areas is apparent, since the average TN is 2-6°C in the mainland, while in Limassol Salt Lake, Ayia Napa and the northern coasts, the minimum temperature reaches 13-14°C. Therefore, winters are very mild in the coastal areas of Cyprus. Winter average TN does not fall below 2°C, even in continental parts of the country, whereas minimum temperatures above 7°C are typical of the Cyprus milder coastal climate. According to the ENSEMBLE model mean (Figure 2-7b), winter is even milder in most parts of the mainland and somewhat cooler in coastal areas, providing smaller gradients compared with those of PRECIS. Average spring TN ranges from 8°C in the higher elevation area of Troodos, to 17°C at the eastern coasts (Karpasia peninsula and Ayia Napa region), while most of the mainland keeps an average TN of 8-12°C (Figure 2-8a). The TN patterns by the ENSEMBLE model mean adequately represent those of PRECIS although the ENSEMBLE model mean is slightly colder everywhere, except from the central lowlands between Troodos and Nicosia (Figure 2-8b). According to PRECIS, the average summer TN is about 19-20°C in the western higher elevation areas and central Cyprus (Figure 2-9a). In general, the western and central regions appear to maintain quite low minimum temperatures, affected by the adjacent mountains. On the contrary, the average summer TN reaches 25°C at the eastern coasts, especially in Ayia Napa area and Karpasia peninsula. The impact of the mountains on the western part of Cyprus is more prominent in Figure 2-9b, where the ENSEMBLE model mean reveals a minimum of TN of 15°C in Troodos, as well as lower minimum temperatures than those of PRECIS, throughout the whole country. Similarly to spring, autumn average TN pattern derived from PRECIS (Figure 2-10a) is characterized by a large temperature range. The average TN is about 11-12°C in the western higher elevation region and reaches 22°C at the eastern coasts. Again, the autumn average TN according to ENSEMBLE model mean appears to be slightly lower than that of PRECIS in coastal and higher elevation regions (Figure 2-10b).

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Figure 2-7: Average winter (DJF) minimum temperature for the years 1961-1990 (control period).

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ENSEMBLE model mean

Figure 2-8: Average spring (MAM) minimum temperature for the years 1961-1990 (control period).

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Projection of climate change in Cyprus with the use of selected regional climate models

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Figure 2-9: Average summer (JJA) minimum temperature for the years 1961-1990 (control period).

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2012

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ENSEMBLE model mean

Figure 2-10: Average autumn (SON) minimum temperature for the years 1961-1990 (control period).

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Projection of climate change in Cyprus with the use of selected regional climate models

2012

2.1.3. Annual Precipitation Since Cyprus faces frequent water shortages especially in the last few decades, it is important to analyze precipitation patterns regarding the recent past. Three discrete regions are identified in Figure 2-11a, depending on the amount of the annual total precipitation according to PRECIS model: a) the central lowlands of Cyprus (190300mm); b) the eastern coasts and the eastern side of Troodos (300-450mm); and c) the western area and western side of Troodos (450-630mm). Hence, the maximum annual total precipitation occurs at the western coasts, unlike Figure 2-11b, where the ENSEMBLE model mean locates the maximum in Olympos mountain, in the central part of Troodos.

2.1.4. Seasonal Precipitation The spatial distributions of seasonal precipitation over Cyprus are presented in Figures 2-12 to 2-15 (DJF, MAM, JJA, and SON). The large east–west contrast is evident in both annual and seasonal precipitation patterns. Most precipitation occurs in winter and autumn, and the patterns during these two seasons are similar. The orographic triggering of precipitation appears to be important throughout the country. The winter total precipitation ranges from about 75mm in the lowlands of central Cyprus to 270mm in the western higher elevation areas, woodlands and wetlands (Figure 2-12a). During winter, the ENSEMBLE model mean is wetter than PRECIS (Figure 2-12b). In both cases though, the dominance of local topography is evident from high winter precipitation amounts over the windward slopes (exposed to moist air masses) in the southwestern region. The wetter western part of Cyprus is also prominent during spring, since the total precipitation of central and eastern Cyprus does not exceed 70-75mm and 95-100mm in Figures 2-13a and 2-13b respectively. PRECIS model shows that the maximum values of total precipitation are confined in the western part of Troodos and the western coastlines, while the ENSEMBLE model mean depicts a more extended area around Troodos mountains with high total precipitation. During summer, high elevation regions in Cyprus receive substantial precipitation while further inland and in the east, precipitation is sparse, concluding that summer is the driest season. In PRECIS pattern (Figure 2-14a), higher values of total precipitation, 150-200mm, are observed in the greater area of Paphos, southwest from Troodos mountains. On the other hand, according to the ENSEMBLE model mean, summer total precipitation does not exceed 45mm anywhere in the country (Figure 2-14b), reinforcing the fact that rainfall deficits and summer dryness are commonplace.

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Figure 2-11: Annual total precipitation for the years 1961-1990 (control period).

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Figure 2-12: Winter total precipitation for the years 1961-1990 (control period).

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ENSEMBLE model mean

Figure 2-13: Spring total precipitation for the years 1961-1990 (control period).

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Figure 2-14: Summer total precipitation for the years 1961-1990 (control period).

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2012

PRECIS model

ENSEMBLE model mean

Figure 2-15: Autumn total precipitation for the years 1961-1990 (control period).

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Projection of climate change in Cyprus with the use of selected regional climate models

2012

Locations along the western and southwestern coast of Cyprus, together with some confined eastern areas (Karpasia peninsula and Ayia Napa), receive most of the rain in autumn, averaging more than 160mm (Figure 2-15a). In all other parts of Cyprus, PRECIS total precipitation ranges from 55 to 150mm and the lowest values are evident in lowlands. Regarding the ENSEMBLE model mean, Olympos mountain (in the centre of Troodos) as well as the coastal parts of the eastern domain show the highest values of total autumn precipitation (Figure 2-15b).

2.1.5. Relative Humidity As concerns annual average relative humidity, hereafter referred as RH, Figure 2-16a (PRECIS) illustrates that in western areas RH reaches 70% while in southern and southeastern areas RH is lower of about 60% and 64% respectively. In addition in inland regions, RH reaches 62%. In Troodos Mountain RH varies from 55% to 65% depending on the elevation. Regarding ENSEMBLE model mean calculations (Figure 2-16b), RH is generally higher. More precisely, in western areas RH is about 70% while in southern and southeastern areas is about 64%. Also, inland areas present a RH of about 62% whilst in Troodos Mountain RH is about 65%. Additionally, Figure 2-17a (PRECIS) shows that western areas present the greatest number of days with RH>80% which varies from 90 days in Akamas Peninsula to 130 days in the city of Paphos as well as in the north part of Paphos District. Southern and southeastern areas show 50 days with RH>80% while inland regions show 60 days. In mountain regions the number of days with RH>80% varies from 60 to 90 days depending on the altitude. As far as the ENSEMBLE model mean is concerned, western regions similarly present the highest number of days with RH>80% reaching 100 days (Figure 2-17b). Southern, southeastern as well as inland areas present approximately 50 days with RH>80%. Finally, in mountain regions the number of days with RH>80% varies from 90 days to 110 days.

2.1.6. Wind Regarding annual mean wind speed in the present-day climate, Figure 2-18a (PRECIS) illustrates that in western, southeastern and inland region the annual mean wind speed reaches 4 m/s while in southern and mountain regions (central and southern part of Troodos) the mean wind speed reaches 3.5 m/s. As for ENSEMBLE model mean calculations, Figure 2-18b shows that the coastal zone, from west to east, presents an annual mean wind speed which varies from 3.5 m/s to 4 m/s while in all the remaining areas namely inland and mountain regions, the annual mean wind speed is quite lower and varies from 2.5 m/s to 3.0 m/s.

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Figure 2-16: Annual average relative humidity for the years 1961-1990 (control period).

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2012

PRECIS

ENSEMBLE model mean

Figure 2-17: Number of days with RH>80% for the years 1961-1990 (control period).

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Figure 2-18: Annual mean wind speed for the years 1961-1990 (control period).

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2012

PRECIS

ENSEMBLE model mean

Figure 2-19: Summer mean wind speed for the years 1961-1990 (control period).

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Figure 2-20: Highest mean wind speed for the years 1961-1990 (control period).

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Projection of climate change in Cyprus with the use of selected regional climate models

2012

Summer mean wind speed of the control period is shown in Figure 2-19a and Figure 2-19b. According to PRECIS plot (Figure 2-19a), during summer, in western and southern regions mean wind speed varies from 3.5 m/s to 4 m/s while in inland and southeastern areas the respective wind speed reaches 4 m/s. Also, mountain areas present a summer mean wind speed which varies from 4.5 m/s in northern parts of Troodos Mountain to 3.5 m/s in central and southern parts. On the contrary, ENSEMBLE model mean (Figure 2-19b) presents lower values for summer mean wind speed. Specifically, in coastal zone, summer mean wind speed is approximately 3 m/s while in mountain and inland regions it varies from 2.5 m/s to 3 m/s. As concerns highest mean wind speed of the present-day climate, PRECIS (Figure 2-20a) shows that in western, southeastern and inland regions the highest mean wind speed is approximately 10 m/s and reaches 12 m/s in Akamas Peninsula (west coast) and in Famagusta District (east coast). Also mountain and southern areas present quite lower highest mean wind speed of about 7-8 m/s. ENSEMBLE model mean plot (Figure 2-20b) shows that in coastline area the highest mean wind speed varies from 10 m/s to 11 m/s while in mountain and inland regions is approximately 7 m/s.

2.1.7. Sunshine Duration For the parameter of sunshine duration, we have used KNMI as the main model to compare with since PRECIS values for this parameter were unavailable. Annual total sunshine duration is presented in Figure 2-21. Specifically, KNMI results (Figure 2-21a) show that in the present-day climate annual total sunshine duration varies from 3500 hrs in mountain areas to 3600 hrs in the remaining areas. Similarly, ENSEMBLE model mean plot (derived from METNO and C4I models) presents that the annual total sunshine duration reaches 3500 hrs in western, southern, southeastern and inland regions while in mountain areas varies from 2500 to 3300 hrs depending on the altitude (Figure 2-21b). Figures 2-22a (KNMI) and 2-22b (ENSEMBLE model mean) illustrate that in the present-day climate, mean winter sunshine duration reaches 7.5 hrs/day in western, southeastern and inland regions in case of KNMI and 6.5 hrs/day in case of ENSEMBLE model mean. For mountain and southern areas, sunshine duration is slightly lower and reaches 7 hrs/day according to KNMI (Figure 2-22a) and 4-6 hrs/day according to ENSEMBLE model mean plots (Figure 2-22b). Furthermore, Figure 2-23 illustrates mean spring sunshine duration in the present-day climate. More specifically, Figure 2-23a (KNMI – control period) shows that mean sunshine duration during spring varies from 10 to 11 hrs/day in the entire study domain. On the other hand, Figure 2-23b (ENSEMBLE model mean) presents a sunshine duration of about 10 hrs/day in western and southern as well as in inland and southeastern regions. In Troodos Mountain sunshine duration varies from 7 to 9.5 hrs/day depending on the altitude.

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Figure 2-21: Mean annual sunshine duration for the years 1961-1990 (control period).

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Figure 2-22: Mean winter sunshine duration for the years 1961-1990 (control period).

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2012

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ENSEMBLE model mean

Figure 2-23: Mean spring sunshine duration for the years 1961-1990 (control period).

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Figure 2-24: Mean summer sunshine duration for the years 1961-1990 (control period).

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2012

KMNI

ENSEMBLE model mean

Figure 2-25: Mean autumn sunshine duration for the years 1961-1990 (control period).

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Projection of climate change in Cyprus with the use of selected regional climate models

2012

Regarding summer, Figure 2-24 depicts the distribution of mean summer sunshine duration. More precisely, Figure 2-24a illustrates KNMI results for present-day climate and shows that mean summer sunshine duration reaches 12.3-12.4 hrs/day in all the domain of study. Additionally, ENSEMBLE model mean (Figure 2-24b) shows almost similar values for summer sunshine which varies from 12 hrs/day in mountain regions to 12.6 hrs/day in the remaining areas. Finally, mean autumn sunshine duration of control period is presented in Figure 2-25. Both KNMI (Figure 2-25a) and ENSEMBLE model mean (Figure 2-25b) results show that mean sunshine duration during autumn is approximately 9 hrs/day in western, southern, southeastern and inland regions. Regarding mountain areas ENSEMBLE model mean calculations reveal that sunshine duration varies from 7 to 9 hrs/day depending on the altitude.

2.1.8. Overview of Mean Parameters An overview of the findings of the analysis regarding mean annual or seasonal meteorological parameters in Cyprus, referred to the control period (1961-1990), is available in Table 2-1, where PRECIS (or KNMI) model can be easily compared to ENSEMBLE model mean. A note below the Table explains the symbols of the parameters. Mean values of the parameters are provided for 5 areas of interest:  western coastal areas (the greater area of Paphos)  southern coastal areas (the greater area of Limassol)  eastern coastal areas (the greater area of Famagusta, Ayia Napa and Larnaca)  continental lowland areas (the greater area of Nicosia), and  higher elevation areas (the central part of Troodos mountains). Indeed, Table 2-1 shows that there is a rather good agreement between PRECIS and ENSEMLE model mean, especially for the average annual minimum temperature. With the exception of the high-elevation areas, PRECIS generally tends to give lower values for the maximum temperature parameters in Cyprus. This is also the case for the average winter minimum temperature. On the other hand, regarding all the other minimum temperature parameters, PRECIS output values are slightly higher than those of ENSEMBLE model mean almost everywhere in the country. The largest discrepancies occur among the precipitation parameters, indicating that PRECIS generally presents a drier picture than the ENSEMBLE model mean, for the recent past (1961-1990). However, exceptions are observed regarding the western and southern coastal areas and the summer and autumn total precipitation. In the western and southern coastal areas, PRECIS mean values of the average annual relative humidity (RH) and the number of days with RH>80% are higher than those of the ENSEMBLE model mean. PRECIS also gives higher values of wind parameters in general,

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Projection of climate change in Cyprus with the use of selected re however, the values of the highest mean wind speed derived from ENSEMBLE model mean for the western and southern coastal areas, are higher than those of PRECIS. Differences between KNMI and ENSEMBLE model mean are also noted in annual and seasonal sunshine duration. Specifically, KNMI sunshine duration values are higher throughout Cyprus, except from the case of the mean summer sunshine duration, as well as the mean autumn sunshine duration at the southern coasts, around Limassol.

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2012

Table 2-1: Meteorological parameters in Cyprus averaged over the control period (1961–1990).

WESTERN COASTAL AREAS INDEX

SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS

EASTERN COASTAL AREAS

CONTINENTAL LOWLAND AREAS

HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS

PRECIS

ENSEMBLE*

PRECIS

ENSEMBLE*

PRECIS

ENSEMBLE*

PRECIS

ENSEMBLE*

PRECIS

ENSEMBLE*

TXa

21.2

21.6

22.5

22.8

23

23.5

24.2

24.5

21.5

21.0

TNa

14

13.5

14

14

16

17

14

13

11

10

TXDJF

15

15

15

15

15

15.5

15.5

15.5

13.0

11.0

18.5

19.5

20.0

20.5

21

21.5

22.5

23

20.0

19.0

TXJJA

27

28

30

30.5

30.0

30.5

34

34

33

32

TXSON

23

23.9

24

24.7

24.3

25.2

25.4

26

23.5

22.3

TNDJF

8

9

8

9

9

10

5

7

3

4

TNMAM

13.0

12

12

12

14.5

14

11

11.5

8.5

8.0

TNJJA

21.5

20.5

22.0

21.5

24.0

22.5

22.5

21.5

20

17

TNSON

17

17

17

17

18.5

19

16

16.5

12

11

PRa

630

470

490

410

280

300

230

300

430

580

PRDJF

230

260

230

220

140

160

100

130

220

260

PRMAM

115

100

70

80

50

55

55

65

80

120

PRJJA

140

0

70

0

0

0

0

0

35

30

PRSON

160

100

140

90

100

80

75

55

120

110

RHa

71

69

65

63

68

66

63

63

58

65

RH>80

110

95

70

60

45

50

55

50

70

110

WSa

4.1

3.8

3.9

3.8

4.3

3.9

4.0

3.3

3.4

2.5

WSJJA

3.7

3.4

4.0

3.6

4.2

3.4

4.0

3.0

3.7

2.4

WSX

10

11

9

10

11.5

10.5

10

7.5

7.5

6.5

TXMAM

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Projection of climate change in Cyprus with the use of selected regional climate models

WESTERN COASTAL AREAS INDEX

SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS

EASTERN COASTAL AREAS

CONTINENTAL LOWLAND AREAS

2012

HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS

KNMI

ENSEMBLE**

KNMI

ENSEMBLE**

KNMI

ENSEMBLE**

KNMI

ENSEMBLE**

KNMI

ENSEMBLE**

3550

3400

3550

3500

3600

3500

3550

3450

3450

2750

SDDJF

7.2

6.5

7.2

6.8

7.5

7

7.4

6.8

6.7

4.0

SDMAM

8.0

10

10.8

10.2

11

10.1

10.7

10

10.5

7.5

SDJJA

12.3

12.4

12.3

12.6

12.3

12.6

12.4

12.6

12.3

12.0

SDSON

9.2

9.0

9.2

9.4

9.3

9.2

9.3

9.2

9.1

7.6

SDa

Note: TXa TNa TXDJF TXMAM TXJJA TXSON TNDJF TNMAM TNJJA TNSON * **

Average annual Tmax Average annual Tmin Average winter Tmax Average spring Tmax Average summer Tmax Average autumn Tmax Average winter Tmin Average spring Tmin Average summer Tmin Average autumn Tmin

PRa PRDJF PRMAM PRJJA PRSON

Annual total precipitation Winter total precipitation Spring total precipitation Summer total precipitation Autumn total precipitation

RHa RH>80

Average annual RH Number of days with RH>80%

WSa WSJJA WSX

Annual mean wind speed Summer mean wind speed Highest mean wind speed

SDa SDDJF SDMAM SDJJA SDSON

Mean annual sunshine duration Mean winter sunshine duration Mean spring sunshine duration Mean summer sunshine duration Mean autumn sunshine duration

Average of KNMI, METNO, CNRM, METO, C4I, and MPI models Average of METNO and C4I models

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Projection of climate change in Cyprus with the use of selected regional climate models

2012

2.2. Indices of Climate Extremes To assess extremes of temperature, precipitation, and wind conditions in Cyprus for the control period (1961–1990), several climate indices were defined and calculated using daily PRECIS output, as well as daily mean output of the ENSEMBLE model mean. Based on the characteristics of the country, emphasis is given to high temperatures, heavy precipitation, drought and windy conditions. The indices of climate extremes presented in this report are given in Table 2-2. Table 2-2: The indices of climate extremes and their definitions, calculated for the control period 1961-1990.

INDEX

DEFINITION

Annual maximum TX

The highest maximum temperature of the year (°C)

Annual minimum TX

The lowest maximum temperature of the year (°C)

Summer days

Number of days per year with daily maximum temperatures TX>25°C

Hot days

Number of days per year with daily maximum temperatures TX>30°C

Heat wave days

Number of days per year with daily maximum temperatures TX>35°C

Frost nights

Number of days per year with minimum nighttime temperatures TN20°C

Annual maximum total precipitation over 1 day

The highest annual total precipitation, falling in 1 day (mm)

Annual maximum total precipitation over 3 days

The highest annual total precipitation, falling in 3 consecutive days (mm)

Dry days

Number of days per year with precipitation RR0.5mm

Very wet days

Number of days per year with precipitation RR>10mm

Extremely wet days

Number of days per year with precipitation RR>20mm

Maximum length of dry spell Windy days

Maximum number of consecutive days with precipitation RR5m/s

The geographical patterns of the selected indices, based on PRECIS and ENSEMBLE model mean outputs, are presented in Figures 2-26 to 2-40.

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Projection of climate change in Cyprus with the use of selected regional climate models

2012

2.2.1. Extremes of Maximum Temperature According to PRECIS, the annual maximum TX (average over the period 1961-1990) amounts to 37-41°C in the continental part of Cyprus (Figure 2-26a). On the contrary, the annual maximum TX does not exceed 33°C on average in coastal areas. All northern coasts from west to east, Ayia Napa and Limassol seem to have the lowest values of maximum TX. PRECIS gradients show the marked temperature difference between continental and coastal parts of the island. On the other hand, this difference is somewhat smaller between the eastern coasts (especially Karpasia peninsula and Ayia Napa) and the lowlands around Nicosia, by the ENSEMBLE model mean (Figure 2-26b). The annual minimum TX ranges from about 6°C to 11°C in the pattern given by PRECIS (Figure 2-27a). On the other hand, the ENSEMBLE model mean presents a larger temperature range (4-13°C), with sharp gradients in Figure 2-27b. The ENSEMBLE model mean estimates lower minimum TX in higher elevation areas and higher in lowlands and coasts than PRECIS. Central continental lowland parts of Cyprus and especially the area of Nicosia, appear to have daily maximum temperatures more than 25°C for almost half of the days of the year. According to PRECIS, the number of summer days (TX>25°C) in the northwestern coastal areas, as well as in the peninsula of Karpasia and the areas of Famagusta (Ayia Napa) and Limassol, does not exceed 100 (Figure 2-28a). On the other hand, the ENSEMBLE model mean presents more summer days all over Cyprus (Figure 2-28b). The number of hot days (TX>30oC) for the years 1961-1990 (control period) ranges from 0 at eastern and western coasts to 120 in the greater area of Nicosia, according to PRECIS (Figure 2-29a). A smaller range of this extreme index is evident in the pattern derived from the ENSEMBLE model mean, leading to increased numbers of hot days all over the coastal areas of Cyprus (Figure 2-29b). This temperature difference between coastal and continental regions is much more pronounced in the patterns depicting the number of heat wave days (TX>35oC). As expected, the range of the number of heat wave days, 0-50, is much smaller than that of the previous two indices (summer and hot days). In particular, PRECIS shows that the number of days per year with daily maximum temperature higher than 35°C does not exceed 20 in coastal areas (Figure 2-30a), except from the area of Famagusta and the eastern region of Limassol, where 20-30 days of the year are characterized as heat wave days. Moreover, it is noted that heat wave days range from 40 to 50 in the southeastern part of Troodos and in continental lowlands, especially near Nicosia. The ENSEMBLE model mean in general presents a similar pattern of heat wave days, as shown in Figure 2-30b. In this case though, the number of heat wave days is less than a month/year in the greater region of Limassol, including the southeastern part of Troodos. Again, in the central continental part of the domain, around Nicosia, extended heat periods, i.e. 40–50 days/year, with TX>35°C are common.

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ENSEMBLE model mean

Figure 2-26: Annual maximum TX for the years 1961-1990 (control period).

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b.

2012

PRECIS model

ENSEMBLE model mean

Figure 2-27: Annual minimum TX for the years 1961-1990 (control period).

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ENSEMBLE model mean

o

Figure 2-28: Number of summer days (TX>25 C) for the years 1961-1990 (control period).

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b.

2012

PRECIS model

ENSEMBLE model mean

o

Figure 2-29: Number of hot days (TX>30 C) for the years 1961-1990 (control period).

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Figure 2-30: Number of heat wave days (TX>35 C) for the years 1961-1990 (control period).

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2.2.2. Extremes of Minimum Temperature The number of frost nights, i.e. the number of days per year with minimum nighttime temperature lower than 0°C, reaches 35 in the west part of Troodos, in Paphos region, according to PRECIS. The model shows that the number of frost nights (TN20oC) for the years 1961-1990 (control period). PRECIS shows that the number of days per year with minimum nighttime temperature higher than 20°C ranges from about 1 month in the higher elevation central regions of the country to 5.5 months in the coastal areas and especially Karpasia peninsula and Ayia Napa region (Figure 2-32a). On the contrary, the ENSEMBLE model mean presents fewer tropical nights all over Cyprus. This means that tropical nights appear to occur for 2 months or less per year in the western mountain areas and 2-3 months in the eastern continental areas, whereas at the western coasts, as well as in Larnaca and Famagusta bays, this is typically 3–4 months, and up to 5 months per year in the eastern coastal areas of Ayia Napa and Karpasia peninsula (Figure 232b).

2.2.3. Extremes of Precipitation Regarding annual max total precipitation over 1 day, Figure 2-33a (PRECIS) illustrates that in the present-day climate, western and southern areas present approximately 30 mm and 35 mm respectively while southeastern and inland regions present about 25 mm. On the other hand, mountain areas show the greatest annual max total precipitation over 1 day which varies from 35 mm to 45 mm depending on the elevation. As concerns ENSEMBLE model mean (Figure 2-33b) western, southern and mountain regions shows 40 mm of total precipitation over 1 day while southeastern and inland regions approximately 30 mm. The lowland central part of Cyprus is the driest region, regarding the annual maximum total precipitation over 3 days, as shown by PRECIS model in Figure 2-34a. The values of the annual maximum total precipitation over 3 days in all other parts of the island, i.e. western part and eastern coastal areas, are higher and reach 70mm. The only exception in PRECIS pattern is the greater area of Paphos that appears drier, while the ENSEMBLE model mean shows a wetter regime in this area (Figure 2-34b).

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Figure 2-31: Number of frost nights (TN20 C) for the years 1961-1990 (control period).

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Regarding the control period 1961-1990 and according to PRECIS (Figure 2-35a), all the western part of the country, i.e. the coasts, the greater area of Paphos and Limassol and the western part of Troodos (Paphos forest), present the lowest values, as far as the number of dry days is concerned (days with rain rate RR20mm), PRECIS keeps presenting drier conditions than the ENSEMBLE model mean. In Figure 2-38a, extremely wet days are almost absent in the central part of the domain and do not exceed 4 days all over Cyprus. The ENSEMBLE model mean though, locates the maximum values of this extreme index in Olympos mountain, in the central part of Troodos (Figure 2-38b). The number of the extremely wet days is about 35 days in the end part of Karpasia peninsula and in the entire western region, the latter affected by the steep slopes of Troodos. The western wet regions mentioned above have the smallest maximum lengths of dry spell (RR20mm) for the years 1961-1990 (control period).

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a. PRECIS model

ENSEMBLE model mean

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Figure 2-39: Maximum length of dry spell (RR 5 m/s for the years 1961-1990 (control period).

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2.2.4. Wind events Regarding wind events in Cyprus, the number of days with mean wind speed greater than 5 m/s has been analyzed. PRECIS plot (Figure 2-40a) shows that in western and southeastern areas the number of days with mean wind speed > 5 m/s is approximately 80 while in inland areas is 70. In addition, mountain and southern regions present about 40-50 days with mean wind speed > 5 m/s. Similarly, ENSEMBLE model mean plot (Figure 2-40b) illustrates that around the coastal zone, the number of days with mean wind speed greater than 5 m/s is about 65 and in all the remaining area is lower and about 40.

2.2.5. Overview of Extreme Indices An overview of the indices of climate extremes, referred to the control period (1961-1990), is available in Table 2-3, where PRECIS model can be easily compared to ENSEMBLE model mean. A note below the Table explicates the symbols of the indices. Mean values of the indices are provided for 5 areas of interest:  western coastal areas (the greater area of Paphos)  southern coastal areas (the greater area of Limassol)  eastern coastal areas (the greater area of Famagusta, Ayia Napa and Larnaca)  continental lowland areas (the greater area of Nicosia), and  higher elevation areas (the central part of Troodos mountains). Indeed, Table 2-3 shows that there is a rather good agreement between PRECIS and ENSEMLE model mean, especially for the annual maximum TX and the annual minimum TX. With the exception of the high-elevation areas, PRECIS generally tends to give lower values for the indices of maximum temperature in Cyprus. On the other hand, regarding the indices of minimum temperature (frost and tropical nights), PRECIS output values are higher than those of ENSEMBLE model mean almost everywhere in the country. The largest discrepancies occur among the precipitation indices, from which it is not clear whether PRECIS presents a wetter or a drier pattern than the ENSEMBLE model mean for the recent past (1961-1990). Regarding the number of days with mean wind speed >5m/s, PRECIS shows higher values than the ENSEMBLE model mean, almost everywhere in the country.

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Table 2-3: Indices of extremes in Cyprus, referring to the number of days per year (temperature degrees in case of TXx and TXn, precipitation amount in case of RX1day and RX3day), averaged over the control period (1961–1990).

WESTERN COASTAL AREAS INDEX

SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS

EASTERN COASTAL AREAS

CONTINENTAL LOWLAND AREAS

HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS

PRECIS

ENSEMBLE

PRECIS

ENSEMBLE

PRECIS

ENSEMBLE

PRECIS

ENSEMBLE

PRECIS

ENSEMBLE

TXx (°C)

32

33

34

35

33

34

40

40

38

37

TXn (°C)

10.0

10.5

9.0

10.5

10.0

11.0

8.0

10.0

6.0

5.0

TX>25°C

95

115

120

140

125

130

160

170

140

120

TX>30°C

20

30

50

60

40

50

110

115

95

70

TX>35°C

4

8

18

16

15

17

41

43

25

20

TN20°C

100

85

100

110

130

125

90

85

45

30

RX1day (mm)

30

40

35

38

29

33

24

29

42

39

RX3day (mm)

50

65

50

55

50

55

35

43

64

68

RR0.5mm

160

80

100

70

70

50

70

50

85

80

RR>10mm

12

13

11

12

5

8

3

5

11

15

RR>20mm

2

4

2

3

2

2

0

1

3

7

CDD (RR5m/s

80

70

70

70

110

80

80

40

40

20

Note: TXx TXn TX

Maximum Tmax Minimum Tmax Daytime maximum temperature

TN Nighttime minimum temperature RX1day Maximum 1-day precipitation RX3day Maximum consecutive 3-day precipitation

RR CDD WS

Daily rain rate Consecutive dry days Mean wind speed 45 | P a g e

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3. Climate Projections This chapter presents differences in averages of various meteorological parameters in Cyprus between the recent past, i.e. the period 1961-1990 (control period), and the recent future, regarding the period 2021-2050. Changes in indices of climate extremes between these two periods are also examined. Again, a comparison is implemented between PRECIS model and ENSEMBLE model mean. In the case of sunshine duration, KNMI model is used instead of PRECIS (due to lack of PRECIS data) and the ENSEMBLE model mean represents the average of only METNO and C4I models.

3.1. General Conditions 3.1.1. Changes in Annual Temperatures PRECIS model in Figure 3-1a shows that changes in average annual maximum temperature (TX) range from 1.0°C at the eastern and northern coasts (Karpasia peninsula, Ayia Napa, Ayia Irini Forest) to 2.0°C in higher elevation areas and especially at the southwestern side of Troodos. The lowland and continental areas in the central part of the country also have a notable change in average annual TX (mainly more than 1.5°C), followed by the western and southern coasts with a temperature increase confined to 1.3-1.7°C. According to the ENSEMBLE model mean (Figure 3-1b), the lowest increase of 1.4°C in average annual maximum temperature occurs mainly at the eastern coasts similar to PRECIS. The average annual TX change is higher in all other coastal areas as well as in lowland continental areas, reaching almost 1.8°C in Nicosia. The higher elevation areas appear to have the highest temperature change, up to 2°C. Compared with PRECIS, the ENSEMBLE model mean depicts a warmer pattern for the future period 2021-2050, almost everywhere in the country, except from the southwestern side of Troodos. Similar to the average annual TX changes, PRECIS shows that changes in average annual minimum temperature (TN) range from 1.0°C at the eastern and northern coasts (Karpasia peninsula, Ayia Napa, Ayia Irini Forest) to 2.0°C in higher elevation areas, especially at the southwestern side of Troodos (Figure 3-2a). A difference in temperature change is also apparent among the northern and eastern coasts and the southern and western ones, the latter being affected by the adjacent higher elevation regions. In Figure 3-2b, the ENSEMBLE model mean generally agrees with PRECIS, but it presents a higher temperature increase in coastal areas and a lower temperature increase in higherelevation and lowland continental areas. Thus, the range of temperature change is confined between 1.3°C and 1.8°C.

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Figure 3-1: Changes in average annual maximum temperature between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990).

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2012

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Figure 3-2: Changes in average annual minimum temperature between the future (20212050) and the control period (1961-1990).

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3.1.2. Changes in Seasonal Temperatures The difference between the eastern and the western, as well as the coastal and the continental, Cyprus temperature changes is most evident from the “Future-Control” seasonal maximum temperature (TX) patterns (Figures 3-3 to 3-6). During winter, December to February (DJF), the average maximum temperature change in the eastern and central part of Cyprus, as well as at all northern coasts from west to east, ranges from 0.5°C to 1.0°C, while in the western and southern side of Troodos mountains it reaches 1.4°C, as designated by PRECIS (Figure 3-3a). The ENSEMBLE model mean, however, presents higher winter TX increases all over Cyprus. Specifically, in the years 2021-2050, both higher and lower elevation continental areas will have higher winter TX by1.4-1.5° compared to the recent past (Figure 3-3b). A notable increase of winter average TX of about 1.3°C is also evident around all coastal areas of Cyprus. The spring season, March to May (MAM), is characterized by an average TX increase of 1.0°C at the northern coasts, from Akamas peninsula National Park to Karpasia peninsula, according to PRECIS (Figure 3-4a). Ayia Napa also has a low spring TX increase, while a larger TX change is observed in the southern coasts and continental lowlands. The higher elevation regions of Cyprus show increases of the spring average TX of 1.8°C. Once more, the ENSEMBLE model mean pattern in Figure 3-4b exhibits higher spring TX changes all over the country, ranging from 1.3-1.4°C in the eastern coasts (Karpasia peninsula and Ayia Napa area) to 1.8-2.0°C in higher and lower elevation continental regions, especially in the area between Troodos and Nicosia. The “Future-Control” changes of average maximum temperature (TX) are also examined in summer, from June to August (JJA), the season with the largest projected warming in the greater Eastern Mediterranean region (Christensen et al. 2007; Hadjinicolaou et al. 2011; Giannakopoulos et al. 2010) and with potentially strong impacts. The results of the PRECIS projections, illustrated by Figure 3-5a, indicate that the summer average TX warming in Cyprus will be significant, ranging from 1°C to 3°C in the near future (2010–2050). Figure 35a shows that summer TX increase reaches 1.0-1.5°C in the areas around Ayia Napa, Limassol Salt Lake and Akamas peninsula National Park. The TX increase does not exceed 2.3°C in all other coasts of the country, contrary to the continental lowlands where it is evident that summer TX will increase by at least 2.2°C (more than 2.5°C in Nicosia). The largest summer TX change, approaching 3.0°C, occurs in higher elevation areas and especially in the southern part and eastern side of Troodos mountains. Figure 3-5b confirms that the ENSEMBLE model mean generally agrees with PRECIS, but presents a more moderate scenario, with a lower summer TX increase all over Cyprus, except from the areas around Ayia Napa, Limassol Salt Lake and Akamas peninsula National Park.

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Figure 3-3: Changes in average winter (DJF) maximum temperature between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990).

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2012

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ENSEMBLE model mean

Figure 3-4: Changes in average spring (MAM) maximum temperature between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990).

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Figure 3-5: Changes in average summer (JJA) maximum temperature between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990).

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2012

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ENSEMBLE model mean

Figure 3-6: Changes in average autumn (SON) maximum temperature between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990).

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Autumn average TX changes, regarding the period September-November (SON), are presented in Figure 3-6. According to PRECIS model (Figure 3-6a), the minimum changes in average autumn maximum temperature (1.0°C) occur in the northern coasts, from west (Akamas) to east (Karpasia), as well as in the touristic area of Ayia Napa. Apparently, the continental lowland regions together with the southern coastal areas exhibit a moderate autumn TX increase, while the highest TX increase during autumn (2.0°C) is found in the area around southern Troodos. In contrast, the ENSEMBLE model mean pattern in Figure 3-6b shows that the lowest autumn TX increase, around 1.4°C in this case, occurs in both northern and southern coasts. Moreover, the highest autumn TX increase of 1.8°C is noted in the central part of Troodos (Olympos) and in the continental lowlands. The patterns of the seasonal minimum temperature (TN) changes in Figures 3-7 to 3-10 also provide important information about temperature increase in Cyprus, expected in the future period 2021-2050. Figure 3-7a presents changes in average minimum temperature (TN) during winter (DJF) between future and control periods, as provided by PRECIS. In this pattern, the northeastern-southwestern contrast is prominent. A small TN increase of 0.5-0.7°C around all coasts from the north to the east is expected as opposed to a higher TN increase of 0.91.1°C in the southern and western areas. It is worth mentioning that the highest TN change occurs in Paphos Forest (northwestern part of Troodos). A different image is presented by the ENSEMBLE model mean in Figure 3-7b, where, in principle, higher increases than PRECIS are expected. Moreover, the winter TN increase is more than 1.0°C in the western regions, whereas the northeastern parts of the country, especially Karpasia peninsula and the areas around the cities of Nicosia, Larnaca, Famagusta, Ayia Napa and Kyrenia (Girne), show higher TN increases reaching 1.4°C. Therefore, this warming is quite spatially uniform for winter TN, according to the ENSEMBLE model mean. The PRECIS smallest changes in average spring minimum temperature (TN), 1.0-1.2°C occur along all north coasts, from east to west, followed by moderate ones, 1.2-1.7°C, in Ayia Napa, Limassol Salt Lake and continental lowland areas (Figure 3-8a). The highest TN increase, approximately 2.0°C, is located in a higher elevation area, south from the central part of Troodos. Again, the “Future-Control” TN pattern by the ENSEMBLE model mean looks more spatially uniform than that by PRECIS. The highest TN increases are depicted in the continental area around Nicosia, as well as south and east from Troodos (Figure 3-8b). In addition, all coasts appear to be warmer by more than 1.3°C during the period 2021-2050, compared to the recent past. According to PRECIS, the changes in average summer TN range from 1.0 to 3.0°C and the contrast between the coastal and the continental areas is apparent (Figure 3-9a). Regarding the coasts, the lowest summer TN increase, somewhat more than 1.0°C is presented in Ayia Napa, while the highest one of 2.1°C is located in the eastern end of Karpasia peninsula. On the contrary, the Nicosia appears to increase its average summer TN by 2.6-2.7°C, while this

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increase reaches 3.0°C in Troodos mountains and east from Troodos. In Figure 3-9b, the ENSEMBLE model mean generally agrees with PRECIS, but presents a smaller range of TN increase. Therefore, the minimum change of summer TN, 1.5°C, is revealed in Ayia Napa and Karpasia peninsula, while the highest one, 2.3°C, is noted in Troodos and the continental lowland region between Troodos and Nicosia. The changes in autumn average TN, derived from PRECIS (Figure 3-10a), range from 1.0°C to 2.0°C. The minimum changes in average autumn minimum temperature occur along the northern coasts, from west (Akamas) to east (Karpasia), as well as in the touristic area of Ayia Napa. A moderate autumn TN increase occurs along the southern coastal areas (e.g. 1.7°C in Larnaca and Limassol) and in continental lowlands (e.g. 1.7-1.8°C in Nicosia). The largest TN increase during autumn (2.0°C) occurs in Troodos mountains, as well as in the continental area between Troodos and Nicosia. In contrast, the ENSEMBLE model mean pattern in Figure 3-10b shows that the lowest autumn TN increase, more than 1.4°C in this case, occurs in both northern and southern coasts. Moreover, compared with PRECIS, the highest autumn TN increase of 1.9-2.0°C moves further east from Troodos, in the continental area of the central part of Cyprus.

3.1.3. Changes in Annual Precipitation Changes in annual precipitation provide important information about occurrences of droughts and subsequent water shortages in Cyprus, expected in the near future (20212050). According to PRECIS model, along all northern coasts, especially Karpasia peninsula, are expected to receive less annual total precipitation in the future, than that estimated for the recent past 1961-1990 (Figure 3-11a). In all other parts of Cyprus, the annual total precipitation appears to have minor decreases or no changes at all. The only region with an increase in total annual precipitation, minor though (up to 5mm), is the area around Orites Forest, east of Paphos. On the other hand, in Figure 3-11b, the ENSEMBLE model mean presents a decrease in annual total precipitation all over Cyprus, with the highest one (about 100-120mm) located in Olympos mountain, in the central part of Troodos.

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Figure 3-7: Changes in average winter (DJF) minimum temperature between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990).

a.

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2012

PRECIS model

ENSEMBLE model mean

Figure 3-8: Changes in average spring (MAM) minimum temperature between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990).

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Figure 3-9: Changes in average summer (JJA) minimum temperature between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990).

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2012

PRECIS model

ENSEMBLE model mean

Figure 3-10: Changes in average autumn (SON) minimum temperature between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990).

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Figure 3-11: Changes in annual total precipitation between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990).

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3.1.4. Changes in Seasonal Precipitation The spatial distributions of seasonal precipitation changes over Cyprus are presented in Figures 3-12 to 3-15 (DJF, MAM, JJA, and SON). The modeled changes in precipitation exhibit a large spatial and temporal variability. Since most precipitation occurs in winter and autumn, the precipitation changes during these two seasons are very important for the study of droughts and associated water shortages. The winter total precipitation changes, derived from PRECIS output, are negative or zero all over Cyprus, with a minimum value of about -120mm in the peninsula of Karpasia (Figure 312a). A significant precipitation decrease is also evident in Ayia Napa, and in north and west coasts, such as Ayia Irini Forest and Akamas peninsula National Park. On the other hand, Orites Forest, in the west, and the continental area south from Nicosia do not present any winter precipitation changes. During winter, the ENSEMBLE model mean presents an almost reverse image from PRECIS (Figure 3-12b). In this case, the highest decreases, up to 70mm, are located in western areas, while the eastern and northern regions of the country are affected by a minor drought. In spring the strongest drying (10-15mm) is projected to occur along the northern coasts of Cyprus, particularly in Ayia Irini Forest and Karpasia peninsula, as PRECIS designates in Figure 3-13a. On the other hand, the southern coasts and especially the area around Limassol Salt Lake may become wetter in spring during the period 2021-2050, with a precipitation increase of up to 15mm. The ENSEMBLE model mean in Figure 3-13b depicts drier future spring conditions all over Cyprus, more prominent in western areas, and less so in eastern areas of the country. According to PRECIS, during summer, continental lowlands, higher elevation areas and parts of the northern coasts of Cyprus receive precipitation decreases of not more than 5mm (Figure 3-14a). On the contrary, a precipitation increase occurs in the southwestern areas, reaching 10mm in Limassol Salt Lake and Orites Forest (southwest from Troodos mountains). According to the ENSEMBLE model mean (Figure 3-14b), summer total precipitation changes are negative everywhere in the country, reinforcing the fact that rainfall deficits and summer dryness are expected in the near future 2021-2050. The highest precipitation decrease (5mm) is located around the central part of Troodos. Similar to winter, the autumn total precipitation changes, derived from PRECIS output, are mainly negative all over Cyprus, with a minimum value of about -70mm in Karpasia peninsula (Figure 3-15a). Much smaller precipitation decreases are noted in all other parts of the country. However, a slight increase of autumn total precipitation, not exceeding 10mm, is expected in the near future regarding the areas east from Paphos (Orites Forest) and west from Ayia Napa. On the contrary to the other three seasons, the ENSEMBLE model mean gives a wetter projection of the near future (Figure 3-15b). All Cyprus appears to receive more autumn total precipitation in the future than in the recent past (1961-1990), with the

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largest increases (up to 20 mm) in the western part of the country, especially in the greater area of Paphos.

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Figure 3-12: Changes in winter total precipitation between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990).

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2012

PRECIS model

ENSEMBLE model mean

Figure 3-13: Changes in spring total precipitation between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990).

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Figure 3-14: Changes in summer total precipitation between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990).

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2012

PRECIS model

ENSEMBLE model mean

Figure 3-15: Changes in autumn total precipitation between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990).

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3.1.5. Changes in Relative Humidity Regarding future changes of annual average RH, PRECIS projects (Figure 3-16a) a small decrease of about 1% in western and southeastern areas while in southern, inland and mountain areas the decrease varies from 2% to 3%. As for ENSEMBLE model mean future projections, Figure 3-16b illustrates that western, southern and southeastern areas show a slight decrease of about 1% while in mountain areas as well as in inland regions the decrease is about 1,5%, lower in comparison to PRECIS. Moreover, Figure 3-17a shows the PRECIS projections concerning future changes of the number of days with RH>80%. It is shown that western area presents an increase varying from 7-10 days mainly in coastal areas. Also, southern and southeastern coastal zone present an increase of about 3 and 7 days respectively. Adversely, inland regions present a decrease of about 5-8 days while in mountain areas the decrease is higher and varies from 8 to 16 days depending on the altitude. As far as ENSEMBLE model mean future projections, Figure 3-17b illustrates that coastal zone, from west to east, presents a decrease of about 25 days while in inland and mountain regions the decrease is higher and reaches 8 days and 12 days respectively.

3.1.6. Changes in Wind Regarding annual mean wind speed changes in the near future, PRECIS projections (Figure 318a) show that in western, southeastern and inland regions a slight decrease of about 0.20 m/s is anticipated while in southern and mountain regions a lower decrease of about 0.1 m/s is expected. On the contrary, ENSEMBLE model mean projects (Figure 3-18b) no future changes in annual mean wind speed all over Cyprus. Regarding summer mean wind speed future changes, Figure 3-19a illustrates that according to PRECIS projections, a small decrease ranging from 0.15 m/s to 0.20 m/s in western, southern, southeastern and inland regions is anticipated. In addition, in mountain areas, a negligible decrease of about 0.05-0.1 m/s is expected. On the contrary, according to ENSEMBLE model mean projections (Figure 3-19b) no change in mean summer wind speed is anticipated. Finally, as far as highest mean wind speed future changes are concerned, Figure 3-20a illustrates that PRECIS projections show that in western and southeastern areas a small decrease of about 0.1 m/s is expected, reaching almost 0.4 m/s in Famagusta District. In mountain regions a decrease of about 0.1 m/s in northern parts is anticipated and no change in central and southern parts. Similarly, in both inland and southern regions no changes in highest mean wind speed are evident. Concerning ENSEMBLE model mean projections, Figure 3-20b illustrates that in western and southeastern regions a decrease of about 0.1 m/s is expected. On the contrary, in mountain and inland regions (Nicosia District) an increase of about 0.1 m/s is anticipated while in the remaining mountain areas no changes are expected.

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Figure 3-16: Changes in annual average relative humidity between the future (20212050) and the control period (1961-1990).

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2012

PRECIS

ENSEMBLE model mean

Figure 3-17: Changes in the number of days with RH>80% between the future (20212050) and the control period (1961-1990).

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Figure 3-18: Changes in annual mean wind speed between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990).

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2012

PRECIS

ENSEMBLE model mean

Figure 3-19: Changes in summer mean wind speed between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990).

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Projection of climate change in Cyprus with the use of selected regional climate models

a.

b.

2012

PRECIS

ENSEMBLE model mean

Figure 3-20: Changes in highest mean wind speed between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990).

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2012

3.1.7. Changes in Sunshine Duration Concerning near future changes of annual sunshine duration, KNMI projections (Figure 321a) show a small increase of about 15 hrs in all the domain of study while ENSEMBLE model mean (Figure 3-21b) presents an increase of about 70 hrs in western, southern, southeastern and inland regions. In mountain areas the increase is higher and varies between 100-140 hrs. As far as mean winter future changes in sunshine duration are concerned, Figure 3-22a depicts KNMI projections that show no significant change. In addition, the ENSEMBLE model mean projections (Figure 3-22b) reveal a slight increase of about 0.3-0.4 hrs daily mainly in mountain regions. Regarding future changes in spring sunshine duration, KNMI projections (Figure 3-23a) show no changes. Conversely, ENSEMBLE model mean projects (Figure 3-23b) a minor increase of about 0.4 hrs daily in western, southern, southeastern and inland regions. Troodos Mountain reveals a higher increase of the order of 0.7-1 hr/day depending on the elevation. As regards near future changes in summer sunshine duration, KNMI projects no change for summer sunshine duration (Figure 3-24a). Similarly, ENSEMBLE model mean projections show no change for all the domain of study except for mountain areas where a small increase of about 0.2-0.4 hrs/day is anticipated (Figure 3-24b). Finally, Figure 3-25a (KNMI projections) indicates a small decrease in autumn sunshine duration of about 0.1 hrs daily in southern, southeastern and inland regions. On the other hand, ENSEMBLE model mean projections (Figure 3-25b) show a slight increase in autumn sunshine duration of about 0.1 hrs daily in all the domain of study.

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Projection of climate change in Cyprus with the use of selected regional climate models

a.

b.

2012

KNMI

ENSEMBLE model mean

Figure 3-21: Changes in mean annual sunshine duration between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990).

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Projection of climate change in Cyprus with the use of selected regional climate models

a.

b.

KNMI

ENSEMBLE model mean

Figure 3-22: Changes in mean winter sunshine duration between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990).

a.

b.

2012

KNMI

ENSEMBLE model mean

Figure 3-23: Changes in mean spring sunshine duration between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990).

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Projection of climate change in Cyprus with the use of selected regional climate models

a.

b.

KNMI

a. KNMI

ENSEMBLE model mean

b. ENSEMBLE model mean

Figure 3-24: Changes in mean summer sunshine duration between the future (20212050) and the control period (1961-1990).

2012

Figure 3-25: Changes in mean autumn sunshine duration between the future (20212050) and the control period (1961-1990).

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2012

3.1.8. Overview of changes in mean Parameters An overview of the changes in meteorological parameters, between the future period (20212050) and the control period (1961-1990), is available in Table 3-1, where PRECIS (or KNMI) model can be easily compared to ENSEMBLE model mean output. A note below the Table explicates the symbols of the parameters. As in Chapter 2, mean values of the parameters are again provided for 5 areas of interest:  western coastal areas (the greater area of Paphos)  southern coastal areas (the greater area of Limassol)  eastern coastal areas (the greater area of Famagusta, Ayia Napa and Larnaca)  continental lowland areas (the greater area of Nicosia), and  higher elevation areas (the central part of Troodos mountains). Table 3-1 shows that there is a rather good agreement between PRECIS and the ENSEMBLE model mean, especially for the changes in average annual, maximum and minimum temperatures. In all cases, annual and seasonal temperatures are expected to increase. Compared with ENSEMBLE model mean which projects a decrease of precipitation parameters, PRECIS generally presents a less dry pattern for the future period 2021-2050. The only exception is noted regarding changes in autumn total precipitation. In general, both PRECIS and ENSEMBLE model mean show that the relative humidity will decrease in the near future. Increases for this parameter (i.e. positive values) are only evident by PRECIS in coastal areas. Regarding wind parameters, slight decreases are calculated by PRECIS, while the ENSEMBLE model mean shows minor or no changes at all, all over Cyprus. Prominent differences between KNMI and ENSEMBLE model mean are noted in changes in mean annual sunshine duration between the 2 periods 1961-1990 and 2021-2050. ENSEMBLE model mean shows a general increase of sunshine duration annually and seasonally, while changes derived from KNMI are minor (or even negative regarding mean summer and autumn sunshine duration). It appears that the 5 areas mentioned above may experience significant increases of annual and seasonal temperatures, according to both PRECIS and ENSEMBLE model mean. Consequently, the overall heat stress can be large especially in continental lowland areas during the summer.

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Table 3-1: Changes in meteorological parameters in Cyprus, between control period (1961-1990) and near future period (2021-2050).

WESTERN COASTAL AREAS INDEX

SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS

EASTERN COASTAL AREAS

CONTINENTAL LOWLAND AREAS

HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS

PRECIS

ENSEMBLE*

PRECIS

ENSEMBLE*

PRECIS

ENSEMBLE*

PRECIS

ENSEMBLE*

PRECIS

ENSEMBLE*

TXa

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.6

1.3

1.6

1.6

1.8

1.9

1.9

TNa

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.6

1.3

1.6

1.8

1.7

1.8

1.7

TXDJF

1.2

1.3

1.2

1.3

0.7

1.4

0.8

1.5

1.2

1.5

TXMAM

1.5

1.6

1.5

1.7

1.4

1.6

1.6

1.8

1.7

1.9

TXJJA

1.6

1.7

2.0

1.9

1.8

1.8

2.5

2.1

2.6

2.4

TXSON

1.4

1.5

1.7

1.5

1.3

1.6

1.5

1.7

1.9

1.7

TNDJF

0.9

1.1

0.9

1.2

0.7

1.3

0.7

1.3

0.9

1.1

TNMAM

1.3

1.5

1.5

1.6

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.7

1.7

1.5

TNJJA

2.0

1.8

2.1

1.9

2.0

1.7

2.7

2.1

3.0

2.2

TNSON

1.5

1.8

1.7

1.7

1.4

1.7

1.8

1.8

2.0

1.9

0

-40

-5

-60

0

-30

0

-30

-5

-85

-15

-40

-10

-40

-10

-30

-5

-30

-10

-55

PRMAM

5

-15

7

-15

3

-7

1

-10

1

-15

PRJJA

5

-1

6

-1

0

-1

-2

-1

-2

-5

PRSON

-10

20

-15

10

0

5

-5

5

-10

5

RHa

0

-0.5

-0.5

-1

0.5

-0.5

-1.0

-1.5

-2.5

-1.5

RH>80

6

-1

7

-2

14

0

-3

-6

-15

-10

WSa

-0.20

-0.06

-0.12

-0.04

-0.20

-0.08

-0.20

-0.06

-0.11

-0.04

WSJJA

-0.17

-0.06

-0.15

-0.02

-0.18

0

-0.23

-0.10

-0.08

-0.06

0

-0.1

0

-0.1

-0.35

-0.15

-0.2

0.1

0

0.05

PRa PRDJF

WSX

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Projection of climate change in Cyprus with the use of selected regional climate models

WESTERN COASTAL AREAS INDEX

SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS

EASTERN COASTAL AREAS

CONTINENTAL LOWLAND AREAS

2012

HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS

KNMI

ENSEMBLE**

KNMI

ENSEMBLE**

KNMI

ENSEMBLE**

KNMI

ENSEMBLE**

KNMI

ENSEMBLE**

SDa

15

75

25

70

15

60

15

60

30

160

SDDJF

0.1

0.25

0.15

0.2

0.15

0.17

0.15

0.18

0.21

0.35

0

0.4

0

0.4

0.1

0.4

0

0.4

0.2

0.9

SDJJA

-0.15

0.10

-0.15

0

-0.15

0

-0.15

0.05

-0.15

0.35

SDSON

-0.05

0.08

-0.06

0.05

-0.07

0.09

-0.07

0.08

-0.06

0.08

SDMAM

Note: TXa TNa TXDJF TXMAM TXJJA TXSON TNDJF TNMAM TNJJA TNSON * **

Average annual Tmax Average annual Tmin Average winter Tmax Average spring Tmax Average summer Tmax Average autumn Tmax Average winter Tmin Average spring Tmin Average summer Tmin Average autumn Tmin

PRa PRDJF PRMAM PRJJA PRSON

Annual total precipitation Winter total precipitation Spring total precipitation Summer total precipitation Autumn total precipitation

RHa RH>80

Average annual RH Number of days with RH>80%

WSa WSJJA WSX

Annual mean wind speed Summer mean wind speed Highest mean wind speed

SDa SDDJF SDMAM SDJJA SDSON

Mean annual sunshine duration Mean winter sunshine duration Mean spring sunshine duration Mean summer sunshine duration Mean autumn sunshine duration

Average of KNMI, METNO, CNRM, METO, C4I, and MPI models Average of METNO and C4I models

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Projection of climate change in Cyprus with the use of selected regional climate models

2012

3.2. Indices of Climate Extremes To assess changes in extreme temperature, precipitation and wind conditions in Cyprus between the control (1961–1990) and the future period (2021-2050), several climate indices were taken into account using PRECIS output, as well as mean output of the ENSEMBLE models. As in Chapter 2, based on the characteristics of the country, emphasis is given to high temperatures, heavy precipitation, drought and windy conditions. The indices of climate extremes described below have been already listed and defined in Table 2-2. The geographical patterns of the changes in the selected indices between the control and future periods, based on PRECIS and ENSEMBLE model mean outputs, are presented in Figures 3-26 to 3-40.

3.2.1. Changes in Extremes of Maximum Temperature According to PRECIS, the average annual maximum TX over the period 2021-2050 increases by more than 1.3°C, compared with its values in the recent past. The lowest increase is projected in the area west from Ayia Napa, in Akamas peninsula and in Limassol Salt Lake (Figure 3-26a). The highest increase in annual maximum TX does not exceed 2.8-2.9°C and is expected in the higher elevation areas around Troodos and less in the continental areas of the central part of Cyprus, between Troodos and Nicosia. An increase in maximum TX of 2.42.5°C is also evident in Famagusta and the eastern end of Karpasia Peninsula. The smallest change in maximum TX between future and control periods, depicted by the ENSEMBLE model mean, is more than 1.3°C in the touristic area of Ayia Napa (Figure 3-26b). Contrary to PRECIS model, the ENSEMBLE model mean presents a smaller increase in Karpasia peninsula. Both continental highlands and lowlands do not exhibit large maximum TX differences. The highest increase in annual maximum TX, not more than 2.6°C, is evident in the area around the central part of Troodos. Figure 3-27a presents changes in annual minimum TX between future and control periods, as projected by PRECIS. In this pattern, the northeastern-southwestern contrast is prominent. The lowest minimum TX increase of 1.0-1.3°C occurs along all coasts from the north to the east and the highest minimum TX increase of 1.3-1.6°C occurs in the southern and western areas. The area around Orites Forest, east from Paphos, is characterized by the highest increase of annual minimum TX, approaching 1.9°C. On the other hand, the “FutureControl” minimum TX pattern by the ENSEMBLE model mean (Figure 3-27b) looks more spatially uniform than that of PRECIS, therefore it presents a smaller temperature range (1.2-1.4°C). The ENSEMBLE model mean estimates a lower minimum TX increase in the north and in the west, as well as in Karpasia peninsula and Ayia Napa region, and a higher increase in lowlands and coasts in the south and in the east of Cyprus than PRECIS. According to PRECIS, the northern coastal areas and continental lowlands of the central part of Cyprus, as well as the areas around Famagusta and Limassol, are expected to experience an increase in summer days (TX>25°C) by 2-3 weeks (Figure 3-28a). The increase of the 71 | P a g e

Projection of climate change in Cyprus with the use of selected regional climate models

2012

number of summer days during the period 2021-2050 in the western part of Cyprus varies from 3-4 weeks in the higher elevation areas (western side of Troodos) to more than one month in the coastal areas from Akamas Peninsula National Park to Limassol Salt Lake. The touristic area of Ayia Napa, and to a smaller degree Karpasia peninsula present a significant increase in the number of summer days (about 4 weeks to 1 month). Compared with PRECIS, the changes in the number of summer days depicted by the ENSEMBLE model mean are much smaller and more spatially uniform (see Figure 3-28b). Specifically, the summer days increase by 18-23 days in continental lowlands, higher elevation areas and coastal areas of central Cyprus, whereas western and eastern coasts are characterized by a higher increase (26-30 days) in the number of summer days. The calculated changes of the number of hot days (TX>30oC) per year are positive throughout Cyprus and quite large, according to PRECIS (Figure 3-29a). In the near future the hot day index seems to increase by 5–12 days over the northwestern and southwestern coasts and 20–24 days in continental lowlands, higher elevation areas and Karpasia peninsula. In addition, Troodos mountains present even higher increases, 26-28 days. However, the strongest increase (about 1 month) appears along the coastal area between Larnaca and Limassol. The spatial pattern of the hot day index (TX>30°C) derived from the ENSEMBLE model mean, presents a smaller range of changes. In this case, the areas with the lowest hot day increases, around 10 days, are Karpasia peninsula, Limassol and Akamas peninsula National Park (Figure 3-29b). Higher increases in the number of hot days are confined in the greater area around Troodos mountains, exceeding one month in Chrysochous Bay (in the northwest of Cyprus). The spatial temperature difference between coastal and continental regions expected in the years 2021-2050 is more evident in the patterns showing the “Future-Control” changes in the number of heat wave days (TX>35oC), calculated by PRECIS output (Figure 3-30a). In particular, PRECIS shows that the increase of days per year with daily maximum temperature higher than 35°C does not exceed 20 days in coastal areas, with the exception of Famagusta, Larnaca and the coastal area between Larnaca and Limassol, where the heat wave day increase is more significant. It is also noted that the heat wave index increase ranges from 30 to 35 days in the southeastern part of Troodos and in continental lowlands, especially near Nicosia. In conclusion, PRECIS shows that more hot days are expected to affect the cities of Nicosia, Larnaca and Famagusta in the near future. The ENSEMBLE model mean presents in general a similar pattern of heat wave day changes, as shown in Figure 3-30b. In this case though, the highest increase in the number of heat wave days reaches 32 days appearing in the central continental part of the domain and in the greater area of Nicosia.

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a.

b.

PRECIS model

ENSEMBLE model mean

Figure 3-26: Changes in annual maximum TX between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990).

a.

b.

2012

PRECIS model

ENSEMBLE model mean

Figure 3-27: Changes in annual minimum TX between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990).

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a.

b.

PRECIS model

a.

ENSEMBLE model mean

o

Figure 3-28: Changes in the number of summer days (TX>25 C) between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990).

b.

2012

PRECIS model

ENSEMBLE model mean

o

Figure 3-29: Changes in the number of hot days (TX>30 C) between the future (20212050) and the control period (1961-1990).

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Projection of climate change in Cyprus with the use of selected regional climate models

a.

b.

2012

PRECIS model

ENSEMBLE model mean

o

Figure 3-30: Changes in the number of heat wave days (TX>35 C) between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990).

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Projection of climate change in Cyprus with the use of selected regional climate models

2012

3.2.2. Changes in Extremes of Minimum Temperature According to PRECIS, the changes in the number of frost nights (TN20°C) for the future period 2021-2050 is expected to increase by 20-25 days in almost all north coasts of the country, Ayia Napa, Limassol Salt Lake and the area of Larnaca (Figure 3-32a). A moderate increase is evident in continental lowlands, whereas higher elevation areas, especially northwestern Troodos, are characterized by a maximum increase of 40-45 days per year. On the contrary, the ENSEMBLE model mean allocates the smallest tropical night increases in the northwestern and central part of Troodos, Ayia Napa and Karpasia peninsula (Figure 3-32b). Moreover, the highest increase occurs in the areas around Chrysochous Bay (in the northwest of Cyprus) and Paphos and, to a lesser degree, in some continental lowland areas.

3.2.3. Changes in Extremes of Precipitation Concerning future changes of annual max total rainfall over 1 day, PRECIS projections (Figure 3-33a) show that a slight increase of about 2-4 mm is anticipated in western, inland and mountain regions. Additionally, southern and southeastern areas present an increase of about 1 mm in annual max total rainfall over 1 day. On the contrary, ENSEMBLE model mean projections (Figure 3-33b) show that in western areas no changes are expected while in southern, southeastern and inland regions a decrease of about 2 mm is anticipated. Also, mountain regions present a slight decrease of about 1 mm. Regarding the annual maximum total precipitation over 3 days, the areas of Ayia Irini Forest and Karpasia peninsula are expected to be the regions with the largest changes in the near future (2021-2050), as calculated by PRECIS model output (Figure 3-34a). Changes in the annual maximum total precipitation over 3 days in all other parts of the island are not remarkable. The only exception in PRECIS pattern is the greater area of Ayia Napa, as well as some higher elevation areas that appear to have a slight increase (not more than 5mm) in annual maximum total precipitation over 3 days. The ENSEMBLE model mean shows in general a more spatially homogenous dry future regime with slight changes (Figure 3-34b).

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Projection of climate change in Cyprus with the use of selected regional climate models

a. PRECIS model

b.

a.

ENSEMBLE model mean

o

Figure 3-31: Changes in the number of frost nights (TN20 C) between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990).

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2012

According to PRECIS (Figure 3-35a), the annual number of days with less than 0.5mm precipitation for the 2021-2050 period is not expected to change much over the southern coastal part of the domain. A significant increase of up to 20 days/year is noted though in Ayia Irini Forest, Karpasia peninsula and in the northwestern part of Paphos Forest, as well as in some other highlands. The ENSEMBLE pattern demonstrates that most parts of Cyprus will face a 1-2 weeks/year increase in the number of dry days (RR0.5mm) in Figures 3-36a and 3-36b, showing the mean changes for 2021-2050 relative to the control period 1961-1990, are complementary of the patterns of changes in dry days (RR0.5mm (range of 0-20 days) that are directly related to increases of the number of days with precipitation RR10mm) may decrease by 5-10 days per year in the 2021-2050 period, as calculated by PRECIS output in Figure 3-37a. Changes in the number of very wet days between the future and the control periods are almost absent over all other parts of the country. According to the ENSEMBLE model mean (Figure 3-37b), the decrease of the number of very wet days is confined all over Cyprus, with the maximum values observed around Troodos mountains (5 days/year). PRECIS model output shows that the number of days with precipitation RR>20mm is expected to decrease by 3 days at most in Karpasia peninsula and by approximately 1 day in the western part of Cyprus (Figure 3-38a). Regarding all other parts of the country, insignificant changes in the number of extremely wet days are expected to occur in the near future. A similar pattern is also provided by the ENSEMBLE model mean, with minor decreases of the number of extremely wet days in northern and eastern Cyprus (Figure 338b). The highest decrease of almost 2 days/year is found in the higher elevation areas around Troodos mountains. As depicted by PRECIS in Figure 3-39a, the western wet coastal and higher elevation regions of Cyprus, as well as Karpasia peninsula and the area of Ayia Napa are expected to have slight decreases or no changes in the maximum length of dry spell (RR20mm) between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990).

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Projection of climate change in Cyprus with the use of selected regional climate models

a.

b.

PRECIS model

a. PRECIS

ENSEMBLE model mean

b. ENSEMBLE model mean

Figure 3-39: Changes in maximum length of dry spell (RR 5m/s between the future (2021-2050) and the control period (1961-1990).

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2012

3.2.4. Changes in Extremes of Wind Concerning future changes of extreme wind events, Figure 3-40a depicts PRECIS projections of the number of days with mean wind speed greater than 5 m/s. As it is shown, in western, southeastern and inland areas a decrease of about 12 days is anticipated while in mountain areas the decrease varies from 5 days to 10 days depending on the elevation. Also southern areas present a slight decrease of about 5 days. On the contrary, ENSEMBLE model mean projections (Figure 3-40b) reveal that in all the domain of study a smaller decrease of about 4 days and no changes in northern part of mountain areas is expected.

3.2.5. Overview of Changes in Extreme Indices An overview of the changes in indices of climate extremes, between the future period (20212050) and the control period (1961-1990), is available in Table 3-2, where PRECIS model can be easily compared to ENSEMBLE model mean output. A note below the Table explicates the symbols of the indices. As in Chapter 2, mean values of the indices are again provided for 5 areas of interest:  western coastal areas (the greater area of Paphos)  southern coastal areas (the greater area of Limassol)  eastern coastal areas (the greater area of Famagusta, Ayia Napa and Larnaca)  continental lowland areas (the greater area of Nicosia), and  higher elevation areas (the central part of Troodos mountains). Table 3-2 shows that there is a rather good agreement between PRECIS and the ENSEMBLE model mean, especially for the ‘Future-Control’ changes in the indices: annual maximum TX, annual minimum TX, number of summer days (TX>25°C), number of frost nights (TN10mm), and number of extremely wet days (RR>20mm). Compared with ENSEMBLE model mean, PRECIS displays changes in precipitation indices that generally lead to a less dry pattern for the future period 2021-2050. The only exception is noted in the eastern coastal and continental lowland areas regarding the number of dry days (RR25°C by approximately 1 month is of great concern.

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2012

Table 3-2: Changes in indices of extremes in Cyprus, referring to the difference of the average number of days per year (temperature degrees in case of TXx and TXn, precipitation amount in case of RX1day and RX3day) between control period (1961-1990) and near future period (2021-2050).

WESTERN COASTAL AREAS INDEX

SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS

EASTERN COASTAL AREAS

CONTINENTAL LOWLAND AREAS

HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS

PRECIS

ENSEMBLE

PRECIS

ENSEMBLE

PRECIS

ENSEMBLE

PRECIS

ENSEMBLE

PRECIS

ENSEMBLE

TXx (°C)

1.9

1.8

2.1

2.0

2.0

1.8

2.4

2.2

2.6

2.5

TXn (°C)

1.5

1.3

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.3

TX>25°C

32

29

25

24

21

23

19

20

20

21

TX>30°C

17

23

17

24

19

22

20

22

24

28

TX>35°C

2

5

19

13

17

15

34

30

30

21

TN20°C

32

30

30

30

25

29

29

32

38

26

RX1day (mm)

4

1

2

-2

2

-2

4

-2

5

-1

RX3day (mm)

1

0

-1

-3

4

-1

2

-1

3

-2

RR0.5mm

-3

-8

-3

-8

-8

-6

-9

-6

-12

-11

RR>10mm

0

-2

0

-1

0

-1

0

-1

0

-3

RR>20mm

-0.5

-1.0

-0.5

-1.0

0.0

-0.5

0.0

-0.5

-0.5

-1.5

CDD (RR5m/s

-13

-4

-8

-3

-14

-4

-12

-3

-5

-1

Note: TXx TXn TX

Maximum Tmax Minimum Tmax Daytime maximum temperature

TN Nighttime minimum temperature RX1day Maximum 1-day precipitation RX3day Maximum consecutive 3-day precipitation

RR CDD WS

Daily rain rate Consecutive dry days Mean wind speed 84 | P a g e

Projection of climate change in Cyprus with the use of selected regional climate models

2012

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Projection of climate change in Cyprus with the use of selected regional climate models

2012

4. Climate Time Series The current study in this Chapter is undertaken in order to: 1) compare PRECIS and the 6 ENSEMBLES RCMs, regarding maximum temperature (TX), minimum temperature (TN), and precipitation, against observational data from 10 meteorological stations distributed throughout Cyprus (Figure 1-1), and 2) show the temporal variation of the above parameters from 1951 up to 2100.

4.1. Time Series of Mean Annual Maximum Temperature Time series of mean annual maximum temperature are presented in Figures 4-1 to 4-4, where it appears that all models data demonstrate a quite narrow spread, especially in Larnaca and Limassol, and have a good agreement with the observed values. The relatively strong upward trend of all model outputs indicates a future increasing intensity and duration of heat waves observed in Cyprus in the recent past. In some cases, the model data deviation from the observations is not minor, since it is obvious that the models either underestimate or overestimate the observed values. For example, METNO model tends to underestimate values of mean annual TX in continental lowland, semi-mountainous and mountainous areas.

4.2. Time Series of Mean Annual Minimum Temperature Time series of mean annual minimum temperature are presented in Figures 4-5 to 4-8. As in mean annual maximum temperature, it is noted that all models data demonstrate a quite narrow spread and a good agreement with the observed values. In this case, the relatively strong upward trend of all model outputs indicates a continuation of the increasing intensity and duration of tropical nights observed in Cyprus in the recent past. With the exception of Panagia (Figure 4-7), a semi-mountainous area of Cyprus, all modeled time series lie close to observed time series.

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Projection of climate change in Cyprus with the use of selected regional climate models

2012

Figure 4-1: Time series of mean annual maximum temperature, as derived from RCMs and observation data, in 3 coastal cities of Cyprus (Larnaca, Limassol, and Paphos).

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Figure 4-2: Time series of mean annual maximum temperature, as derived from RCMs and observation data, in 2 continental lowland cities of Cyprus (Nicosia and Lefkara).

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Figure 4-3: Time series of mean annual maximum temperature, as derived from RCMs and observation data, in 3 semi-mountainous areas of Cyprus (Stavros, Panagia, and Saittas).

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Figure 4-4: Time series of mean annual maximum temperature, as derived from RCMs and observation data, in 2 mountainous areas of Cyprus (Amiantos and Prodromos).

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Figure 4-5: Time series of mean annual minimum temperature, as derived from RCMs and observation data, in 3 coastal cities of Cyprus (Larnaca, Limassol, and Paphos).

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Figure 4-6: Time series of mean annual minimum temperature, as derived from RCMs and observation data, in 2 continental lowland cities of Cyprus (Nicosia and Lefkara).

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Figure 4-7: Time series of mean annual minimum temperature, as derived from RCMs and observation data, in 3 semi-mountainous areas of Cyprus (Stavros, Panagia, and Saittas).

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Figure 4-8: Time series of mean annual minimum temperature, as derived from RCMs and observation data, in 2 mountainous areas of Cyprus (Amiantos and Prodromos).

4.3. Time Series of Mean Annual Precipitation Time series of mean annual precipitation are presented in Figures 4-9 to 4-12, where it appears that most of the models demonstrate a good agreement with the observed values. The downward trend of all model outputs indicates a continuation of the decreasing precipitation amounts observed in Cyprus in the recent past.

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Figure 4-9: Time series of mean annual precipitation, as derived from RCMs and observation data, in 3 coastal cities of Cyprus (Larnaca, Limassol, and Paphos).

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Figure 4-10: Time series of mean annual precipitation, as derived from RCMs and observation data, in 2 continental lowland cities of Cyprus (Nicosia and Lefkara).

In some cases, the model data deviation from the average is large, since the models either underestimate or overestimate the observed values. Specifically, CNRM model follows better than all other models the observed data. C4I model goes also well with the observed values, despite its overestimation in almost all cases. MPI model presents very low values in continental areas and especially in higher elevation regions (Figures 4-11 to 4-12). It is important to mention that METNO model is excluded from the time series of mean annual precipitation, since it predicts very high values and its discrepancy with the other 6 models and the observed data is very large.

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Figure 4-11: Time series of mean annual precipitation, as derived from RCMs and observation data, in 3 semimountainous areas of Cyprus (Stavros, Panagia, and Saittas).

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Figure 4-12: Time series of mean annual precipitation, as derived from RCMs and observation data, in 2 mountainous areas of Cyprus (Amiantos and Prodromos).

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5. Conclusions The model data analysis presented in this report confirms that Cyprus is a primary climate change “hot spot”, characterized by high temperatures, abundant sunshine, and aridity, especially in summer, with significant impacts in several socio-economic sectors. The 1961-1990 temperature patterns generally illustrate the different climatic zones within Cyprus, from the cool higher elevation regions to the hot and dry lowlands and the warm and humid coasts. Regarding this reference period, it is concluded that the average maximum temperature range is 10-16°C in winter and 25-35°C in summer. The summertime maximum TX in coastal regions is about 33°C, while further inland it often exceeds 40°C. The 1961-1990 precipitation patterns in Cyprus do not depend only upon the synoptic weather conditions but also on the pronounced topography, for example Troodos mountains through which rivers supply the much needed water downstream. According to PRECIS model, the annual total precipitation ranges from 190-300mm in the central part of Cyprus (from the north and the south) to 450-630mm in the western part of the country. The dominance of local topography is also evident from the seasonal total precipitations. For example, winter total precipitation ranges from about 75mm in the lowlands of central Cyprus to 270mm in the western higher elevation areas, woodlands and wetlands. PRECIS shows higher mean values of relative humidity parameters than the ENSEMBLE model mean, especially regarding the western and southern coastal areas of Cyprus. The same is true for the wind parameters almost everywhere in the country. In addition, prominent differences between KNMI and ENSEMBLE model mean are noted in annual and seasonal sunshine duration. Except from the case of the mean summer sunshine duration, KNMI mean values of sunshine duration are higher throughout Cyprus. The comparison of the indices of climate extremes derived from PRECIS and the ENSEMBLE model mean reaches the conclusion that PRECIS is generally somewhat cold biased regarding the indices of maximum temperature (TXx, TXn, summer days, hot days, and heat wave days). In contrast, as far as the indices of minimum temperature are concerned (frost nights and tropical nights), PRECIS is slightly warm biased compared to the ENSEMBLE model mean. The discrepancies between PRECIS and the ENSEMBLE model mean are generally largest in regions with pronounced topography, indicating that the difference in resolution between the two datasets plays a role. Furthermore, regarding the precipitation indices, it is not clear whether PRECIS presents a wetter or a drier pattern than the ENSEMBLE model mean, for the reference period (1961-1990). Regarding the number of days with mean wind speed >5m/s, PRECIS shows higher values than the ENSEMBLE model mean, almost everywhere in the country. In the period 2021-2050, the projected changes in temperature are remarkable and in agreement with previous work that shows that heat stress is expected to intensify. In particular, a continual, gradual and relatively strong warming of about 1.0 to 2.0°C may

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occur between the 1961-1990 reference period and the future period 2021–2050, as shown by the annual maximum and minimum TX patterns. Interestingly, in summer the increase of maximum TX will exceed 2.5°C. Maximum and minimum seasonal temperatures appear to increase most in the continental part of Cyprus, i.e. the lowland areas around Nicosia as well as in the western higher elevation part. Hot summer conditions that rarely occurred in the reference period may become the norm by the middle of the 21st century. Cyprus projected precipitation changes are quite variable among models. Winter drying will be modest in PRECIS with precipitation decreasing by 5-15mm but larger in the ENSMEBLES model mean with precipitation decreases reaching 50mm in higher elevation areas. Throughout the year, Cyprus will not be affected by large changes according to PRECIS but according to the ENSEMBLES model mean reductions in precipitation may reach 60mm in southern coastal areas and 80 mm at higher elevation sites. Therefore, Cyprus precipitation patterns must be interpreted with caution, owing to the large temporal variability of rainfall and the inherent limitations of climate models to simulate accurately the hydrological cycle and the large variations of future projected changes among models. Both PRECIS and ENSEMBLES model mean show that the relative humidity will decrease in the near future, except from the coastal areas of Cyprus where PRECIS model presents increases of relative humidity. Regarding wind parameters, slight decreases are expected by PRECIS, while the ENSEMBLES model mean shows minor or no changes at all. Moreover, the ENSEMBLES model mean shows a general increase of mean annual and seasonal sunshine duration, while changes (between the control and future periods) derived from KNMI model are minor (or even negative regarding mean autumn sunshine duration). In most patterns of projected changes in indices of climate extremes, there is a rather good agreement between PRECIS and the ENSEMBLE model mean. The increase in the number of days with TN>25°C (tropical nights) is expected to be approximately 1 month, which is of great concern, if it is combined with the fact that both PRECIS and the ENSEMBLE model mean give remarkable increases of all indices of maximum temperature. Compared with the ENSEMBLE model mean, PRECIS appears to be slightly wet biased in almost all cases of precipitation indices. Moreover, the number of days with mean wind speed greater than 5m/s is expected to decrease everywhere in the country in the near future (2021-2050). Pronounced warming and precipitation reductions are also detected from time series of temperature and precipitation parameters, regarding 10 representative locations of Cyprus during the period 1951-2100. Deviations between model and observed data are detected in locations with particularly complex topography, which are often not well represented by models. Specifically, it appears that all models data demonstrate a quite narrow spread and a good conformity with the observed values, as derived by the time series of mean annual maximum and minimum temperatures. Larger deviations (underestimation and overestimation) are noted in time series of mean annual precipitation, where CNRM and C4I models follow quite well the observed data.

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In general, regional climate models consistently predict an overall warming and drying of Cyprus, which will impact major river systems and the downstream water resources and food production. A large part of Cyprus will face precipitation decreases. The demand for fresh water increases continually, related to population growth and economic development. In summer Cyprus, can be hot, and climate change may intensify heat waves with consequences for human health, energy use and economic activity, including the tourism sector, which have yet received little attention.

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