Presidential Politics in Michigan Dr. Lyke Thompson, Dr. Marjorie Sarbaugh-Thompson, and Jason Hardacre Wayne State University Fall 2004 1

Model of the major influences that decide the winner of the Presidential election in Michigan H is to ry

E c o n o m ic C lim a te

R e p o s itio n in g o f P o litic a l P a rtie s

L e g a l C o n te x t P re s id e n tia l E le c tio n

G ro u n d C a m p a ig n

M oney

C u rre n t E v e n ts

T u rn o u t

M e d ia

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History of Michigan Presidential Elections

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Share of popular vote among political parties in Michigan, 1892-2000 80% Percentage of Vote

70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 18 9 18 2 9 19 6 0 19 0 0 19 4 0 19 8 1 19 2 1 19 6 2 19 0 2 19 4 2 19 8 3 19 2 3 19 6 4 19 0 4 19 4 4 19 8 5 19 2 5 19 6 6 19 0 6 19 4 6 19 8 7 19 2 7 19 6 8 19 0 8 19 4 8 19 8 9 19 2 9 20 6 00

0% Year

Democrats Republicans Others

Note: In 1912, Theodore Roosevelt ran as a member of the Bull Moose Party and won a majority of the Michigan popular vote. He ran as a Republican in 1904. Source: www.uselectionatlas.org

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1988 U.S. Presidential Election Results Michigan

George H. W. Bush (R) Michael S. Dukakis (D)

Vote Tally Candidate

Number of Votes

Percentage of Total Vote

George H. W. Bush (R)

1,965,486

53.57%

Michael S. Dukakis (D)

1,675,783

45.67%

27,894

0.76%

3,669,163

100.00%

Others Total

Note: The darker the shade of the color, the larger the percentage of the vote the candidate received. Graphic courtesy of www.uselectionatlas.org

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1992 U.S. Presidential Election Results Michigan

George H. W. Bush (R) William J. Clinton (D)

Vote Tally Candidate

Number of Votes

Percentage of Total Vote

George H. W. Bush (R)

1,554,940

36.38%

William J. Clinton (D)

1,871,182

43.77%

824,813

19.30%

23,738

0.55%

4,274,673

100.00%

H. Ross Perot (I) Others Total

Note: The darker the shade of the color, the larger the percentage of the vote the candidate received. Graphic courtesy of www.uselectionatlas.org

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1996 U.S. Presidential Election Results Michigan

William J. Clinton (D) Robert J. Dole (R)

Vote Tally Candidate

Number of Votes

Percentage of Total Vote

William J. Clinton (D)

1,989,653

51.69%

Robert J. Dole (R)

1,481,212

38.48%

336,670

8.75%

41,309

1.08%

3,848,844

100.00%

H. Ross Perot (RF) Others Total

Note: The darker the shade of the color, the larger the percentage of the vote the candidate received. Graphic courtesy of www.uselectionatlas.org

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2000 U.S. Presidential Election Results Michigan

Albert A. Gore, Jr. (D) George W. Bush (R)

Vote Tally Candidate

Number of Votes

Percentage of Total Vote

Albert A. Gore, Jr. (D)

2,170,418

51.28%

George W. Bush (R)

1,953,139

46.14%

109,154

2.58%

4,232,711

100.00%

Others Total

Note: The darker the shade of the color, the larger the percentage of the vote the candidate received. Graphic courtesy of www.uselectionatlas.org

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Economic Climate of Michigan

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Ja nu ar yAp 200 1 ril -2 0 J O uly 01 ct ob -20 Ja er- 01 nu 20 ar 01 yAp 200 2 ril -2 0 J O uly 02 ct ob -20 Ja er- 02 nu 20 ar 02 yAp 200 3 ril -2 0 J O uly 03 ct ob -20 Ja er- 03 nu 20 ar 03 yAp 200 4 ril -2 Ju 00 ly 4 -2 00 4

Number (in thousands)

Total Non-farm Employees in Michigan, January 2001 – September 2004 4,650

4,600

4,550

4,500

4,450

4,400

4,350

4,300

Month-Year

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

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Unemployment Rate in Michigan, by County

11 Source: Michigan Department of Labor and Economic Growth

8.0% 7.5% 7.0% 6.5% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0%

Michigan National

Ja nu ar y20 00 Ju l Ja ynu 20 ar 00 y20 01 Ju l Ja ynu 20 ar 01 y2 Ju 002 Ja lynu 20 ar 02 y20 03 Ju Ja lynu 20 ar 03 y20 04 Ju ly -2 00 4

Percentage

Unemployment Rate, Michigan v. National January 2001 to September 2004

Time Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

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Average Number of Weeks

Unemployed Citizens in Michigan, Average Number of Weeks, January 2001 – August 2004 20 18 16 14 12 10 Jan-01

Jul-01

Jan-02

Jul-02

Jan-03

Jul-03

Jan-04

Jul-04

Month/Year Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

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Repositioning of Political Parties in Michigan

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• Up to the early 1980s, the political parties, including the Republicans, had conservative, moderate, and liberal factions. • With the election of John Engler, a conservative Republican, in 1990 the Michigan Republican Party moved further and further to the right. The Democrats did move somewhat to the right, but not as much. • Therefore, Al Gore, a Democrat, won the Republican stronghold of Oakland County because its citizens did not necessarily shift with the Republican Party. • In addition, Jennifer Granholm defeated Dick 15 Posthumus for the Governor’s race in 2002.

Ground Campaign in Michigan and Turnout

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Number of Registered Voters in Michigan, 2000, 2002, 2004 7,100,000 7,050,000 7,000,000

Number

6,950,000 6,900,000 6,850,000 6,800,000 6,750,000 6,700,000 6,650,000 2000(a)

2002(b)

2004(c)

Year Notes: (a) Data from October, 10, 2000; (b) Data from October 07, 2002; (c) Data from September 24, 2002 as cited in the Detroit Free Press. Source: Michigan Department of State

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Voter Registration and Election Turnout Statistics for Michigan General Elections for President, 1948-2000 Voting Age Year Number Voting Number Registered Population (VAP) Turnout (% of VAP) 1948 2,109,609 Not Available 4,041,000 52.2% 1952 2,798,592 Not Available 4,193,000 66.7% 1956 3,080,468 3,128,573 4,538,000 67.9% 1960 3,318,097 3,454,804 4,564,000 72.7% 1964 3,203,102 3,351,730 4,658,000 68.8% 1968 3,306,250 4,022,378 4,953,000 66.8% a b 1972 3,490,325 4,762,764 5,874,000 59.4% 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000

3,722,384 3,978,647 3,884,854 3,745,751 4,341,909 3,912,261 4,279,299

c

5,202,379 5,725,713 5,888,808 5,952,513 6,147,083 d 6,677,079 6,859,332

6,268,000 6,510,000 6,577,000 6,791,000 6,947,000 7,072,000 7,358,000

59.4% 61.1% 59.1% 55.2% 62.5% 55.3% 58.2%

a"The

large increase in the number of registered voters in the state from 1970 to 1972 was the result of a March 1972 Michigan Supreme Court ruling which declared that it was unconstitutional to purge the registration of a voter who had not voted over a period of two years as Michigan law then required. In effect, this compelled clerks to reinstate the registrations of 'non-voters' who had been purged from the registration since 1968." b"The large increase in the state's voting age population from 1970 to 1972 was the result of the 26th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution which lowered the minimum voting age from 21 to 18." c"Two events occurred in 1975 which affected the 1976 registration total: (1) the Secretary of State Branch Officer Voter Registration program was put into effect in October and (2) provisions allowing for the creation of 'inactive' voter registration files were put into effect. Registration totals listed for 1976 to 1984 reflect only those registrations held in 4-year 'active' files." d"The National Voter Registration Act, effective January 1, 1995, eliminated the initiation of any voter registration cancellations for inactivity and introduced several new voter registration programs in the state, including mail-in registration." Source: Michigan Manual, 1948-2000

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Voter Turnout for Presidential Elections in Michigan, 1948-2000 (As a Percentage of Voter Age Population) 75%

Percentage

70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45%

19 60 19 64 19 68 19 72 19 76 19 80 19 84 19 88 19 92 19 96 20 00

19 56

19 52

19 48

40%

Year Source: Michigan Manual, 2001-2002

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Voter Turnout in Wayne County, 2000 General Election

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Voter Turnout in Detroit, 2000 General Election

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Money / Campaign Finances

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2004 Michigan Campaign Finance Report, Broadcast Television, By Region Media Market Candidate/Campaign

Detroit

Grand Rapids/Kalamazoo

Lansing

Flint/Tri-Cities

Northern Michigan

Total

$5,512,200

$3,153,820

$2,054,000

$1,614,400

$1,817,002

$14,151,422

Not Available

$279,365

$67,725

$57,730

$150,455

$555,275

Total - Bush/allies

$5,512,200

$3,433,185

$2,121,725

$1,672,130

$1,967,457

$14,706,697

Kerry/Edwards 2004

$6,597,000

$3,456,205

$2,480,075

$2,038,335

$1,704,794

$16,276,409

Pro-Kerry 527s*

$1,472,995

$478,480

$420,000

$357,610

$157,060

$2,886,145

Total - Kerry/allies

$8,069,995

$3,934,685

$2,900,075

$2,395,945

$1,861,854

$19,162,554

Total - All

$13,582,195

$7,367,870

$5,021,800

$4,068,075

$3,829,311

$33,869,251

Bush/Cheney 2004 Pro-Bush 527s*

*527s are advocacy groups.

Note: Through October 25, 2004. Cable television not included. Source: Michigan Campaign Finance Network

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Media • Bias in coverage – Sinclair Broadcasting – Errors—CBS

• Endorsements • Ad Wars

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Current Events

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Wild Card Possibilities • Debates • Changes in the Iraq Situation • Osama – Capture – Attacks

• • • • • •

Employment and Unemployment Numbers Gaffes and Leaks Catastrophes Oil price or Stock Market changes Defections by Prominent Party Members Media 26

The Current Outlook

The Horse Race

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Likely voters’ choice for President in Michigan - 2004 Bush (R)

Kerry (D)

Nader (I)

Undecided

60% 50%

Percentage

40% 30% 20% 10%

08 /

08 /

13

-0 8/ 16 17 (b -0 ) 08 8/ 19 /2 6 (d -0 ) 08 8/ 28 /2 6 (b -0 ) 09 8/ 29 /1 2 - 0 (c) 09 9/ 14 /1 4 (b -0 ) 09 9/ 16 /2 6 (a -0 ) 10 9/ 28 /1 2 (b -1 ) 10 0/ 14 /1 5 - 1 (b) 10 0/ 18 /1 8 (a -1 ) 10 0/ 19 /1 8 (e -1 ) 10 0/ 20 /1 9 - 1 (b) 0/ 10 21 /1 ( 8 - 1 e) 10 0/ 22 /2 4 - 1 (f) 10 0/ 26 /2 6 (b -1 ) 0/ 29 (a )

0%

Dates of polls (2004) Sources: (a) Mason-Dixon Polling and Research for Knight Ridder and MSNBC; (b) Strategic Vision (R); (c) Lake Snell Perry and Associates for America Coming Together (D); (d) American Research Group Poll; (e) Detroit News/Mitchell Poll; 28 (f) EPIC/MRA

Likely voters’ choice for President, National v. Michigan, June 2004 – October 2004 Bush (National)

60.0%

Bush (Michigan)

40.0%

Kerry (National)

30.0% Kerry (Michigan)

20.0%

Nader (Michigan)

r

be to Oc

Others/Undecided (National)

Se

pt e

m

be

gu s Au

Ju

Ju

r

0.0%

t

Nader (National)

ly

10.0%

ne

P ercentage

50.0%

Month (2004)

Others/Undecided (Michigan)

Note: Figures are an average compiled from several polls. Sources: Democracy Corps Poll (D); Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll; ABC News/Washington Post Tracking Poll; American Research Group Poll; CBS News/NY Times Poll; Mason-Dixon Polling and Research for Knight Ridder and MSNBC; Strategic Vision (R); Lake Snell Perry and Associates for America Coming Together (D); Detroit News/Mitchell Poll; Newsweek; Time; International Communications Research (ICR).

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50.0% 49.0% 48.0% 47.0% 46.0% 45.0% 44.0% 43.0% 42.0% 41.0% 40.0%

Kerry (National)

O ct ob er

be r

t

Se pt em

Au gu s

Ju ly

Kerry (Michigan)

Ju ne

Percentage

Percent of likely voters choosing John Kerry (D) for President, National v. Michigan, June 2004 – October 2004

Month (2004) Note: Figures are an average compiled from several polls. Sources: Democracy Corps Poll (D); Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll; ABC News/Washington Post Tracking Poll; American Research Group Poll; CBS News/NY Times Poll; Mason-Dixon Polling and Research for Knight Ridder and MSNBC; Strategic Vision (R); Lake Snell Perry and Associates for America Coming Together (D); Detroit News/Mitchell Poll; Newsweek; Time; International Communications Research (ICR).

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Percent of likely voters choosing George W. Bush (R) for President, National v. Michigan, June 2004 – October 2004 50.0%

Percentage

48.0% 46.0% 44.0%

Bush (National)

42.0%

Bush (Michigan)

40.0% 38.0%

O ct ob er

S

ep te m be r

ug us t A

Ju ly

Ju ne

36.0%

Month Note: Figures are an average compiled from several polls. Sources: Democracy Corps Poll (D); Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll; ABC News/Washington Post Tracking Poll; American Research Group Poll; CBS News/NY Times Poll; Mason-Dixon Polling and Research for Knight Ridder and MSNBC; Strategic Vision (R); Lake Snell Perry and Associates for America Coming Together (D); Detroit News/Mitchell Poll; Newsweek; Time; International Communications Research (ICR).

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