Macroeconomics 2030, Spring 2013

Possible Discussion Topics for the Term Paper Below are examples of possible term paper topics that correlate loosely with chapters in the textbook. Select one of these, or a related topic for your term paper. Be sure that the emphasis in your paper is on macroeconomic issues. Where applicable, you may focus your discussions on a single country, a comparison between two countries with different macroeconomic policies in place (e.g. Social Democratic vs. Conservative) or engage in a purely theoretical discussion Term papers should be: 2000 (+/- 300) words , double-spaced. These papers must be written in teams of two. Please Note: This is an “English Writing Intensive” course. The professional delivery of your ideas will be reflected in your term paper grade. This involves: the presentation of well-articulated ideas and arguments, their defence through the correct application of pertinent facts and correct citations and a well-thought out structure. Correct grammar (with some consideration to differing language skills) and spelling are also considered essential components of professional delivery. The Writing Center will be happy to advise you. Final Drafts must be submitted as follows: One electronic copy to Turn-it-in; 2. one hard copy to me or my mailbox on the 3rd floor. No email submissions. Late papers will lose -10% for every day they are late. Expected Learning Outcomes for this assignment: -

You will have practiced the correct use of citations You will have practiced the correct formulation of a Thesis Statement and outline You will have learned to present your work in a professional manner You will have applied Economic models in the analysis of your current events You will have learned to support your arguments with data

A. TERM PAPERS Group 1 – Dates: 1. Thesis Statement, Outline and preliminary Bibliography: Mon. Feb 4th 2. Draft Version:.Wed. Feb 20th 3. Peer Review:. Mon. Feb 25th 4. Final Version (in Turn-it-in) : March 20th !!! http://turnitin.com/static/index.html Assignment: Term Paper Group I Name: ECON 2030 Spring 2013 Password: Keynes Class ID: 6019392

1. RECESSION, GDP, UNEMPLOYMENT: a. The US economy has been out of recession for about 3 years but the recovery stills seems fragile. How strong is the recovery? Look at indicators of economic vitality (i.e., unemployment rates, production figures, consumer and producer confidence, GDP growth, etc.). Is it only a matter of time before the economy is back to traditional growth rates or do you see long term structural problems? What role does the Government play – deficit spending etc. Are their policies encouraging or discouraging growth? b. The EU has been hard hit by the 2008 economic slow down. Since then a number of member states have neared economic collapse. What is the state of EU’s economic health? Look at indicators of economic vitality (i.e., unemployment rates, production figures, consumer and producer confidence, GDP growth, etc.). Is it only a matter of time before the economy is back to traditional growth rates or do you see long term structural problems? Which countries present the gravest challenge to EU economic health? Will economic problems of member countries such as Greece, Italy, Spain, Ireland etc. pull more successful economies like Germany down or even unravel the Union? Have they been able to contain the threat of economic implosion? What role do national governments and the EU (EU Central Bank etc.) play in strengthening the Europe’s economic growth? Are their initiatives encouraging or discouraging economic growth? c. Briefly discuss the causes of the 2008/2009 downturn – Housing Bubble, the Banking sector, etc. Discuss the scope/severity of the most recent recession. Was it comparable to the Great Depression? What is special about this recession (if anything)? Look at previous recessions (pick a country and choose a time frame of at least fifty years) and explore the causes for the various expansions and contractions within the business cycles. Were the causes always the same? What was done to escape the downswings? Were these programs effective? Why/ Why not? Can we learn from our past mistakes or are we doomed to repeat the same mistakes for all time? What have governments & central banks done to help the economies recover? Were they successful? Is a “double dip” recession a realistic scenario in the region you are investigating? d. Select an emerging economy: Brasil, India, Russia, China, Indonesia, etc. Present a summary of its economic indicators (GDP growth, Output levels, investment, price levels, resources, etc.). Analyze the data. How sustainable are past growth rates? Are there structural problems that need to be addressed (eg. over-reliance on oil, aging population, etc.). What can the government do to ensure future economic health? Are they doing these things? 2. THE SHADOW ECONOMY: Study the impacts of the “Shadow Economy” on the productivity of a country. Explore various types: Crime, illicit work (aka. Moonlighting), etc. What are the effects on government policy, welfare of society and national accounting? What can a government do to reintegrate segments of the Shadow Economy into the regular economy? Discuss the impact of the current recession on the Shadow Economy. 3. INFLATION/ DEFLATION WOES: a. Explain the phenomenon of inflation – what are its causes; when is it a threat and when not? What is hyperinflation? Use historical examples to illustrates its impact -

see Weimar Republic (1920s), Argentina (1999-2002), Serbia (worst period: 19931995), Zimbabwe (2000’s), etc. You may select one country/ period or conduct a survey. What can a government do? b. What is deflation? Is it as common as inflation? Why or Why no? What are its causes? How dangerous is it? Use historical examples to illustrate your case: Global Deflation (1930s), Japan (1990s). B. TERM PAPERS DUE: May 8. 2012 1. 2. 3. 4.

Thesis Statement, Outline and preliminary Bibliography: March 27th Draft Version: Mon. April 15th Peer Review: Mon. April 22nd Final Version (in Turn-it-in): Mon. April 29th !!!!

http://turnitin.com/static/index.html Assignment: Term paper Group II Name: ECON 2030 Spring 2013 Password: Keynes Class ID: 6019392 1. FISCAL & MONETARY POLICY IN ACTION: a. The US and Europe limped out of the 2008 “Great Recession”. What did the respective governments do to escape a worst-case scenario? Have they been successful? Grade them for their work. Discuss Fiscal and Monetary policy tools already used or proposed – focus on differing remedies proposed. You may: 1. Choose a country or region (US, UK, EU,…); or 2. Compare different approaches used or the different schools of thought on how the problems should be tackled. a. Given the fiscal and monetary challenges presented by the implosion of the Greek economy, what is the EU doing to stabilize its economy and the EMU? Are the past and current policies successful in averting the demise of the EMU and/or EU? What about the other sick EU economies (Spain, Ireland, Italy, etc.) … are they effectively addressing their problems? What about Europe’s power-house Germany? Is it stumbling under the pressure? Is Austerity an answer? b. The Magic Of Supply Side Economics: Was George Bush a Supply-Side president? Compare his administration’s economic policies with those of Reagan and his “Reaganomics. Is Obama a “Keynesian” President? What School of Thought was/is behind the economic policy of each president? Were/Are they true ideologues or pragmatic in their approaches? c. Battle of Ideas In the advent of the global slowdown of 2008 governments reacted with different economic policies. Discuss several national case studies and try to assess which school of thought drove which national economic programs. Given the current challenges – what has priority: reducing national debt or stimulating growth? Are they exclusionary or can they be approached simultaneously?

2. BANKING: a. ECB vs. FED: Compare European Central Bank approach/ role to that of the US Federal Reserve Bank. What similarities do you see between the two Central Banks? How do their approaches and philosophies concerning the use of Monetary Tools and the objectives of Central Banks differ? Explain in light of recent recession, discuss. b. THE EURO vs. THE DOLLAR: What is implication of a strong EURO vis-àvis the US Dollar – who benefits? What are the causes for this drop in value against the Euro? Is the Dollar poised to drop some more? Why? Is there a danger in the huge US budget deficit in regards to the stability of the dollar? What would it mean for world commerce if the US dollar lost its leadership role? What would it mean for the US? Should the world (e.g. Oil markets) move away from the dollar in favor of the EURO? 3. THE ECONOMIC MANDATE OF NATIONAL GOVERNMENTS: How would you define the role of government in assuring the economic stability of a nation’s economy? What should its responsibilities be? Do favor a strong activist government that uses policy tools to ensure that defined social objectives are met or do you favor instead, a government that relies on free enterprise to create the desired economic stability. Discuss the methods each type of government could use to achieve these ends. Argue your viewpoint by citing the shortcomings of the system you reject. You might want to compare two countries with differing viewpoints on the subject (e.g. USA and Sweden - both economies are doing very well however their methods of achieving their high living standards differ greatly). 4. GLOBALIZATION/ OUTSOURCING: What is globalization in economics term? What impact do forces of Globalization have on national economies and national policy making? What is better for a national economy – a focus on creating and protecting jobs at home or facilitating international trade/ business even if this means moving some production abroad? What do you make of America’s (and Europe’s) increasing dependency on Asia for production? What are the arguments pro/con Outsourcing? What is your position? Does globalization hedge against recessions or does it in fact make us more vulnerable (i.e., do recessions spread like viruses in this interconnected world)?

Tips for Obtaining a Strong Grade: 

Liven up the discussions with your opinions but make sure they are grounded on solid economic theory. In other words – Normative conclusions must be grounded in Positive analysis.



Use an adequate amount of sources! Use articles from newsprint (e.g. der Standard, Wallstreet Journal, etc.) & magazines (e.g. Business Week, Economist, etc.), statistical data (labor statistics) and publications (thesis papers, books) to strengthen your arguments & analysis. The “Passport” database in our library can be of great service for your research. - Wikipedia is NOT an academically valid source. - IF you use/cite internet sources make sure they are trustworthy and relevant. You MUST explain why you trust the source (e.g. “As the official Site of the UN Compact on Sustainable Development (www.globalcompact.org states, humanity is…….”)

-



If you are quoting any source, it is a good idea to hint something about reliability of the source. For example: o According to Mr Smith, a president of the Association XY, … o According to IMF study of the impact of flat tax on the tax revenue written by XY and XW

Avoid Plagiarism (presentation of ideas and expressions of others as if they were your own). Whenever using ideas or expressions borrowed from some source, whether quoting directly or paraphrasing, acknowledge the source with an appropriate footnote or endnote, showing: name of author, title of the work, place & name of publisher & date of publication and page number where idea is located. Document these sources either at the bottom of the page (footnotes) or at the end of your paper (endnotes). Use quotation marks when quoting directly. 

See a relevant site for a detailed explanation of proper APA author-page documentation format. There are many – eg. http://www.library.cornell.edu/resrch/citmanage/apa



Visit the department’s guidelines on writing term papers on the department webpage and Webster’s “Academic Integrity” section of the St. Louis webpage: http://www.webster.edu/students/plagiarism/



Use direct quotes ONLY if they support your argument and the quote CANNOT be paraphrased.



Even IF you quote correctly, a paper that is to a large extent a compilation of other people’s ideas is NOT original work and will be graded accordingly.



You must keep a copy of term paper on file in case the first copy is lost or misplaced. Also, keep your research notes and rough notes so that if a question arises as to an actual source and its location, you will be able to address that question in a timely manner.



Grades are based on the following:

I. II. III. IV.

Format (15%): success in delivering thesis and defending it logically (clarity of structure and objectives) Analysis (40%): Understanding the topic, application of economic theory/models Research (25%): Statistical/ factual support, relevancy, sources used, use of visuals to support analysis (graphs etc.) Delivery: (20%): Proper grammar and spelling. Use of visuals (Graphs, charts, etc.), professional appearance (cover, font,…)